沧海星空
2023-06-06
学习
@玲儿小盯裆:
如何把握A股、H股的拐点
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只有拐点才能改变人生,只有与异于市场共识、并被市场反复验证的观点才能真正地为投资者增加价值。\n</blockquote>\n<p>本文主要想讨论a股、h股的拐点有哪些特征,以及使用怎样的指标观察。</p>\n<p>1、宏观类:中美利差、us02y、不同期限的shibor、彭博信贷脉冲、居民+企业中长期贷款同比、m1-m2</p>\n<p>2、市场类:两市成交额、市场换手率、融资买入额占比、估值水平、股息溢价率、偏股新基金发行量、股票ETF规模、基金仓位、两融余额、北上资金净流入、新增投资者数量</p>\n<p>3、大陆股指定价逻辑:企业盈利、估值水平、风险偏好</p>\n<p>4、香港股指定价逻辑:国内基本面、海外流动性、地缘风险、卖空机制</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c277cc894c4989301077998ebb0f459a\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"1126\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb618ba38008f9bb713013922fa604ca\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"1164\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae7ef0d34d0f52f9ba341fed0764309\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2064853ac28596a886d6e66c23c58437\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/508f472b7871883528c82dc0fd489173\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p><strong>宏观类指标:</strong></p>\n<p>1)中美利差:cn10y-us10y,首先两者都是无风险利率,cn10y隐含了中国经济的增速,us10y反映了美联储的经济增速、货币政策、通胀等情况,是海外资金的资金成本锚。当两者做差的时候,就反应了一个外资对于中国资产的边际变化,同步/前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2041e46e7ed3d3a4f0c1de1a96f9e41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"508\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>2)us02y、us10y:美国的短期与长期利率,极大的影响了外资的买入成本,比方说国内增长3%,国外短债回报5%,那外资当然不会购买国内资产。前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f77984245f42313ee1b3a309b07c9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)不同期限的shibor:一般看1month、3month,其反映了实体对资金的需求,与10y走势类似,前瞻/同步指标。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5990bdf5d26aa09f4f7fbd6d52615bd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>4)AAA级同业存单收益率:其本质是一种高等级信用债,也反映了部分流动性的情况,一般看3month,前瞻/同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37ee45b3583d117829ab6ba6ebcc75c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"869\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>5)彭博信贷脉冲:信贷脉冲为新增信贷对国内生产总值的比重,为衡量一国信贷循环的重要领先指标,通常景气开始复苏时,信贷脉冲指数会逐渐向上攀升,前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afbb0dba65ce124510d1fb113bb92336\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>6)居民+企业中长期贷款同比:体现了居民和企业对未来的发展信心,随着中国经济的转型,居民企业占比也能有所变化,同步/前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dac86c470768e5bfa50f06c6bfa0f2d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>7)m1-m2:体现了民间投资对于未来是“负向”看待,只愿意把钱放在定存账户,不愿意投资,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6857250095d1d390ae6fecbd03afa322\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">8)pmi动能:新增订单-产成品库存,月度数据,一般与cn10y同步,同步/前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66dd4d0850d3f43d24c7e0ab48dd9c53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p><strong>市场类指标:</strong></p>\n<p>1)两市成交额:成交额一定程度上反映了市场的情绪,当市场成交量过低且低于3000点时,也许是一个很好的机会。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0661f8588611dc55dd1756bd86c78818\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>2)市场换手率,换手率也代表了市场的活跃度,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be2de826882d9d7d3fbd846aaa3f47d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)融资买入额占比=融资买入额/沪深两市成交额,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be952a83bf7458163fbce5c1fa666a53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>4)估值水平:主要看50、300、500的估值,若估值过低或者看历史分位,则是一个很好的入场机会。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7932488ecc198c5afeecc7b29a1042ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>5)股息溢价率(1/沪深300市盈率/国债收益率):用来比较股票和债券的性价比,当出于1-2个标准差时可能是一个机会,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6816f834d05d689f818d4976a9df8923\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>6)股票ETF规模,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af35d95bab06d48dd73b30316309422\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>7)偏股新基金发行量:如果发行量猛然增多,一般为散户热情最高涨的时刻,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/518c3c4f114fa1b26ba48f27118d1e4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"784\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>8)私募基金仓位:整体来看,也是追涨杀跌的风格,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a1e282ccc949d3400bad9b688b33d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"668\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>9)两融余额:代表了市场的信心,也代表了一定的流动性,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae525075109fe70f14c6ea9e05a31fa6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>10)北上资金净流入:代表了外资的角度,同步/滞后指标</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\n<p>11)新增投资者数量:如图所示,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f7741ef3132605e9edffd61d698f40\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\n<p><strong>Cross-check</strong></p>\n<p>1)铜:工业发展的重要原材料,与经济高度相关。前瞻/同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab325175bb1e3e0fb5994fe87bcd4633\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">短期</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98174c7b6464906db8779fce62255508\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>长期</p>\n<p>2)中债:作为中国经济的分子端,隐含了经济的增速。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371c313c6d84fd8dab30d5b4f38d5278\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)中地美债:海外发行的中资地产债回报跟踪。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3115d70dfed14aaa2808e463b38e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"693\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">4)USDCNY:汇率一般看两个,资本项目和经常项目。资本项目主要看利差前文有提及,而经常项目主要看净出口。同步指标。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f89c7fd4d548d6fc0d137d3326d48ea8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">绿:USDCNY 粉:A50</p>\n<p><strong>港股因子:</strong></p>\n<p>1)国内基本面:cn10y,包括中美利差。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f059aeb1706da81f47b7c82c7a2a61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>2)流动性与汇率:libor3m、hibor3m。起源是hkma的联系汇率制度,所以只要fed加息,hkma必定跟随。这也是影响港股的一个最重要的因素-外部流通性。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7663cd5a3cf90cd97bb4c02aab8b4fde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b554377545a7188baaaabf428f6232a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)地缘风险:这个很难用某一个指标去衡量,只能根据具体的时事新闻去分析。</p>\n<p>4)卖空机制:港股可以自由的卖空,所以可以根据PCR数据做一个情绪的观察,下方蓝色线往下是贪婪往上是恐惧,在极端位置时,HSI的弹性非常好。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec925e990ad19cfd0d0762b40c47a8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">5)恒指波幅:相当于美国的vix。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/535321ff631118de76a3bffd55933cf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>以上就是笔者平时经常跟踪观察的一些市场指标;接下里如果市场有变化、机会,笔者会第一时间与大家沟通,感谢大家关注🙏</p>\n<p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2306(CNmain)$</a> </p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>\n 只有拐点才能改变人生,只有与异于市场共识、并被市场反复验证的观点才能真正地为投资者增加价值。\n</blockquote>\n<p>本文主要想讨论a股、h股的拐点有哪些特征,以及使用怎样的指标观察。</p>\n<p>1、宏观类:中美利差、us02y、不同期限的shibor、彭博信贷脉冲、居民+企业中长期贷款同比、m1-m2</p>\n<p>2、市场类:两市成交额、市场换手率、融资买入额占比、估值水平、股息溢价率、偏股新基金发行量、股票ETF规模、基金仓位、两融余额、北上资金净流入、新增投资者数量</p>\n<p>3、大陆股指定价逻辑:企业盈利、估值水平、风险偏好</p>\n<p>4、香港股指定价逻辑:国内基本面、海外流动性、地缘风险、卖空机制</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c277cc894c4989301077998ebb0f459a\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"1126\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb618ba38008f9bb713013922fa604ca\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"1164\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aae7ef0d34d0f52f9ba341fed0764309\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"677\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2064853ac28596a886d6e66c23c58437\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/508f472b7871883528c82dc0fd489173\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"496\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p><strong>宏观类指标:</strong></p>\n<p>1)中美利差:cn10y-us10y,首先两者都是无风险利率,cn10y隐含了中国经济的增速,us10y反映了美联储的经济增速、货币政策、通胀等情况,是海外资金的资金成本锚。当两者做差的时候,就反应了一个外资对于中国资产的边际变化,同步/前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2041e46e7ed3d3a4f0c1de1a96f9e41\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"508\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>2)us02y、us10y:美国的短期与长期利率,极大的影响了外资的买入成本,比方说国内增长3%,国外短债回报5%,那外资当然不会购买国内资产。前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f77984245f42313ee1b3a309b07c9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)不同期限的shibor:一般看1month、3month,其反映了实体对资金的需求,与10y走势类似,前瞻/同步指标。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5990bdf5d26aa09f4f7fbd6d52615bd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>4)AAA级同业存单收益率:其本质是一种高等级信用债,也反映了部分流动性的情况,一般看3month,前瞻/同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37ee45b3583d117829ab6ba6ebcc75c5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"869\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>5)彭博信贷脉冲:信贷脉冲为新增信贷对国内生产总值的比重,为衡量一国信贷循环的重要领先指标,通常景气开始复苏时,信贷脉冲指数会逐渐向上攀升,前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afbb0dba65ce124510d1fb113bb92336\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>6)居民+企业中长期贷款同比:体现了居民和企业对未来的发展信心,随着中国经济的转型,居民企业占比也能有所变化,同步/前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dac86c470768e5bfa50f06c6bfa0f2d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>7)m1-m2:体现了民间投资对于未来是“负向”看待,只愿意把钱放在定存账户,不愿意投资,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6857250095d1d390ae6fecbd03afa322\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">8)pmi动能:新增订单-产成品库存,月度数据,一般与cn10y同步,同步/前瞻指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66dd4d0850d3f43d24c7e0ab48dd9c53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p><strong>市场类指标:</strong></p>\n<p>1)两市成交额:成交额一定程度上反映了市场的情绪,当市场成交量过低且低于3000点时,也许是一个很好的机会。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0661f8588611dc55dd1756bd86c78818\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>2)市场换手率,换手率也代表了市场的活跃度,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0be2de826882d9d7d3fbd846aaa3f47d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"341\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)融资买入额占比=融资买入额/沪深两市成交额,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be952a83bf7458163fbce5c1fa666a53\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>4)估值水平:主要看50、300、500的估值,若估值过低或者看历史分位,则是一个很好的入场机会。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7932488ecc198c5afeecc7b29a1042ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"570\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>5)股息溢价率(1/沪深300市盈率/国债收益率):用来比较股票和债券的性价比,当出于1-2个标准差时可能是一个机会,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6816f834d05d689f818d4976a9df8923\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>6)股票ETF规模,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af35d95bab06d48dd73b30316309422\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>7)偏股新基金发行量:如果发行量猛然增多,一般为散户热情最高涨的时刻,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/518c3c4f114fa1b26ba48f27118d1e4b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"784\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>8)私募基金仓位:整体来看,也是追涨杀跌的风格,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a1e282ccc949d3400bad9b688b33d3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"668\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>9)两融余额:代表了市场的信心,也代表了一定的流动性,同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae525075109fe70f14c6ea9e05a31fa6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"690\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>10)北上资金净流入:代表了外资的角度,同步/滞后指标</p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\n<p>11)新增投资者数量:如图所示,滞后指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f7741ef3132605e9edffd61d698f40\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"621\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"></p>\n<p><strong>Cross-check</strong></p>\n<p>1)铜:工业发展的重要原材料,与经济高度相关。前瞻/同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab325175bb1e3e0fb5994fe87bcd4633\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">短期</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98174c7b6464906db8779fce62255508\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>长期</p>\n<p>2)中债:作为中国经济的分子端,隐含了经济的增速。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371c313c6d84fd8dab30d5b4f38d5278\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)中地美债:海外发行的中资地产债回报跟踪。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3115d70dfed14aaa2808e463b38e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"693\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">4)USDCNY:汇率一般看两个,资本项目和经常项目。资本项目主要看利差前文有提及,而经常项目主要看净出口。同步指标。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f89c7fd4d548d6fc0d137d3326d48ea8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">绿:USDCNY 粉:A50</p>\n<p><strong>港股因子:</strong></p>\n<p>1)国内基本面:cn10y,包括中美利差。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f059aeb1706da81f47b7c82c7a2a61\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>2)流动性与汇率:libor3m、hibor3m。起源是hkma的联系汇率制度,所以只要fed加息,hkma必定跟随。这也是影响港股的一个最重要的因素-外部流通性。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7663cd5a3cf90cd97bb4c02aab8b4fde\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"644\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b554377545a7188baaaabf428f6232a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>3)地缘风险:这个很难用某一个指标去衡量,只能根据具体的时事新闻去分析。</p>\n<p>4)卖空机制:港股可以自由的卖空,所以可以根据PCR数据做一个情绪的观察,下方蓝色线往下是贪婪往上是恐惧,在极端位置时,HSI的弹性非常好。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec925e990ad19cfd0d0762b40c47a8f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"431\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">5)恒指波幅:相当于美国的vix。同步指标</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/535321ff631118de76a3bffd55933cf4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"585\"><span>图片</span></p>\n<p>以上就是笔者平时经常跟踪观察的一些市场指标;接下里如果市场有变化、机会,笔者会第一时间与大家沟通,感谢大家关注🙏</p>\n<p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CNmain\">$A50指数主连 2306(CNmain)$</a> </p></body></html>","text":"只有拐点才能改变人生,只有与异于市场共识、并被市场反复验证的观点才能真正地为投资者增加价值。 本文主要想讨论a股、h股的拐点有哪些特征,以及使用怎样的指标观察。 1、宏观类:中美利差、us02y、不同期限的shibor、彭博信贷脉冲、居民+企业中长期贷款同比、m1-m2 2、市场类:两市成交额、市场换手率、融资买入额占比、估值水平、股息溢价率、偏股新基金发行量、股票ETF规模、基金仓位、两融余额、北上资金净流入、新增投资者数量 3、大陆股指定价逻辑:企业盈利、估值水平、风险偏好 4、香港股指定价逻辑:国内基本面、海外流动性、地缘风险、卖空机制 图片 图片 图片 图片 图片 宏观类指标: 1)中美利差:cn10y-us10y,首先两者都是无风险利率,cn10y隐含了中国经济的增速,us10y反映了美联储的经济增速、货币政策、通胀等情况,是海外资金的资金成本锚。当两者做差的时候,就反应了一个外资对于中国资产的边际变化,同步/前瞻指标 图片 2)us02y、us10y:美国的短期与长期利率,极大的影响了外资的买入成本,比方说国内增长3%,国外短债回报5%,那外资当然不会购买国内资产。前瞻指标 图片 3)不同期限的shibor:一般看1month、3month,其反映了实体对资金的需求,与10y走势类似,前瞻/同步指标。 图片 4)AAA级同业存单收益率:其本质是一种高等级信用债,也反映了部分流动性的情况,一般看3month,前瞻/同步指标 图片 5)彭博信贷脉冲:信贷脉冲为新增信贷对国内生产总值的比重,为衡量一国信贷循环的重要领先指标,通常景气开始复苏时,信贷脉冲指数会逐渐向上攀升,前瞻指标 图片 6)居民+企业中长期贷款同比:体现了居民和企业对未来的发展信心,随着中国经济的转型,居民企业占比也能有所变化,同步/前瞻指标 图片 7)m1-m2:体现了民间投资对于未来是“负向”看待,只愿意把钱放在定存账户,不愿意投资,滞后指标 图片 8)pmi动能:新增订单-产成品库存,月度数据,一般与cn10y同步,同步/前瞻指标 图片 市场类指标: 1)两市成交额:成交额一定程度上反映了市场的情绪,当市场成交量过低且低于3000点时,也许是一个很好的机会。同步指标 图片 2)市场换手率,换手率也代表了市场的活跃度,同步指标 图片 3)融资买入额占比=融资买入额/沪深两市成交额,同步指标 图片 4)估值水平:主要看50、300、500的估值,若估值过低或者看历史分位,则是一个很好的入场机会。同步指标 图片 5)股息溢价率(1/沪深300市盈率/国债收益率):用来比较股票和债券的性价比,当出于1-2个标准差时可能是一个机会,同步指标 图片 6)股票ETF规模,滞后指标 图片 7)偏股新基金发行量:如果发行量猛然增多,一般为散户热情最高涨的时刻,滞后指标 图片 8)私募基金仓位:整体来看,也是追涨杀跌的风格,滞后指标 图片 9)两融余额:代表了市场的信心,也代表了一定的流动性,同步指标 图片 10)北上资金净流入:代表了外资的角度,同步/滞后指标 11)新增投资者数量:如图所示,滞后指标 图片 Cross-check 1)铜:工业发展的重要原材料,与经济高度相关。前瞻/同步指标 图片 短期 图片 长期 2)中债:作为中国经济的分子端,隐含了经济的增速。同步指标 图片 3)中地美债:海外发行的中资地产债回报跟踪。同步指标 图片 4)USDCNY:汇率一般看两个,资本项目和经常项目。资本项目主要看利差前文有提及,而经常项目主要看净出口。同步指标。 图片 绿:USDCNY 粉:A50 港股因子: 1)国内基本面:cn10y,包括中美利差。同步指标 图片 2)流动性与汇率:libor3m、hibor3m。起源是hkma的联系汇率制度,所以只要fed加息,hkma必定跟随。这也是影响港股的一个最重要的因素-外部流通性。同步指标 图片 图片 3)地缘风险:这个很难用某一个指标去衡量,只能根据具体的时事新闻去分析。 4)卖空机制:港股可以自由的卖空,所以可以根据PCR数据做一个情绪的观察,下方蓝色线往下是贪婪往上是恐惧,在极端位置时,HSI的弹性非常好。同步指标 图片 5)恒指波幅:相当于美国的vix。同步指标 图片 以上就是笔者平时经常跟踪观察的一些市场指标;接下里如果市场有变化、机会,笔者会第一时间与大家沟通,感谢大家关注🙏 $A50指数主连 2306(CNmain)$","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184107139391640","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["CNmain"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":3112,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/184482098794584"}
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