喂会打篮球么
2018-03-31
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
@夏夏夏：
Facebook：历史来看，丑闻不会持续太久
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mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">丑闻引起了</span>Facebook$(FB)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">股票下跌，这会持续多久呢？这问题好像无法知道，但我们可以从历史发生过丑闻的其他公司，来窥测一下。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">下面这份表格，列出了</span>2010<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年以来八家受丑闻影响的公司大概情况，从事件类型到下跌幅度，以及下跌时间：</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/3b483cd9e0567a042975ec5fc9c9cf63\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">不包括</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，平均下跌时间是</span>63<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">天，平均下跌幅度是</span>35%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>看，Chipotle$(CMG)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的股票曲线像一个超大的墨西哥卷饼。几年来，这家公司一直受食品安全问题困扰着。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/bcbd67da8b55eaef660e9545400f9ebf\"></span></p> <p>2015<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年发生了一系列大肠杆菌污染事件后，</span>Chipotle<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">改变了食品处理程序。显然这阻止了大肠杆菌的肆虐，但问题并没有结束。去年有一场诺如病毒爆发，还涉及一名生病的员工，以及晚些时候在洛杉矶发生的另一起事件。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">这只股票最终在</span>2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月份触底，当时他们从塔可钟</span>(Taco Bell)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">挖来新的首席执行官，取代了之前的公司创始人。</span>Chipotle<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的声誉还处在风险之中，目前还不清楚能不能</span>hold<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">住最近的这个底部。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">除</span>Chipotle<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">外，其他几家公司都不到六个月就走出丑闻阴影。</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的下跌时间已经超过了</span>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，下跌百分比已经超过</span>富国银行$(WFC)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">和</span>Target$(TGT)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">当时。</span></p> <p>Equifax$(EFX)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">提供了一个相对正面的案例。尽管上个月数据泄露丑闻扩大，比先前披露的多了</span>240<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万人，但股价并没有接近去年</span>9<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月份的低点。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/f98acfc1fb18d728a25206da8847693c\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">目前为止，除了与违约相关的直接成本之外，</span>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的收益几乎没有影响</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">客户似乎并没有成群结队地抛弃这项服务。</span></p> <p>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">是三大信用报告机构之一，它能够剔除与违约相关的成本，并在非</span>GAAP<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">准则下显示盈利。</span></p> <p>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的问题是让黑客获取了</span>1.43<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿消费者的个人信息，包括</span>209000<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">人的信用卡号码。</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的问题不涉及黑客或信用卡。相反，它把</span>5000<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万用户的资料暴露给了政治咨询公司剑桥分析</span>(Cambridge Analytica)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，这家公司利用这些数据进行针对传播帮助特朗普赢得大选。然后，在这件事变成公共事件前的两年时间里，</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">无所作为。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">如果</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">像</span>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一样，可以把解决数据问题的一次性成本隔离开来，这可能会对股价有所帮助。但这也许是不可能的——</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">已经采取了各种安全措施，包括雇佣数千名内容监控人员，可能会有永久的利润率下降。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">商业模式也有不同</span>:Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的主要客户是需要消费者数据的企业，公司主要需要重新获得他们的信任，而不是普通大众的信任。</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的主要客户也是企业，他们购买广告，但它也必须吸引消费者——如果因为</span>#<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">联合抵制</span>facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">运动或其他因素，整体使用量大幅下降，广告和市场影响也会下降。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/e1411a12ed4b2cf25cd3e7491bda4531\"></span></p> <p>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">下次财报会在</span>5<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月</span>2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">号公布，也就是剑桥分析丑闻后的</span>48<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">天。这个长度，已经和上面这些案例的平均值很近了。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">仅仅因为这些下跌通常是一时的，并不意味着这些公司会去到新的高点。受亚马逊</span>$(AMZN)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">影响，去年</span>Target<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">比受丑闻困扰时还低，而</span>$(BP)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">从未回到</span>2010<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年的高峰。</span></p> <p><em><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">谨供虎友们参考，文章翻译自</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light';\">seekingalpha.com </span></em>#Facebook危机#</p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">丑闻引起了</span>Facebook$(FB)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">股票下跌，这会持续多久呢？这问题好像无法知道，但我们可以从历史发生过丑闻的其他公司，来窥测一下。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">下面这份表格，列出了</span>2010<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年以来八家受丑闻影响的公司大概情况，从事件类型到下跌幅度，以及下跌时间：</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/3b483cd9e0567a042975ec5fc9c9cf63\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">不包括</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，平均下跌时间是</span>63<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">天，平均下跌幅度是</span>35%<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">。</span></p> <p>看，Chipotle$(CMG)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的股票曲线像一个超大的墨西哥卷饼。几年来，这家公司一直受食品安全问题困扰着。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/bcbd67da8b55eaef660e9545400f9ebf\"></span></p> <p>2015<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年发生了一系列大肠杆菌污染事件后，</span>Chipotle<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">改变了食品处理程序。显然这阻止了大肠杆菌的肆虐，但问题并没有结束。去年有一场诺如病毒爆发，还涉及一名生病的员工，以及晚些时候在洛杉矶发生的另一起事件。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">这只股票最终在</span>2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月份触底，当时他们从塔可钟</span>(Taco Bell)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">挖来新的首席执行官，取代了之前的公司创始人。</span>Chipotle<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的声誉还处在风险之中，目前还不清楚能不能</span>hold<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">住最近的这个底部。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">除</span>Chipotle<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">外，其他几家公司都不到六个月就走出丑闻阴影。</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的下跌时间已经超过了</span>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，下跌百分比已经超过</span>富国银行$(WFC)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">和</span>Target$(TGT)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">当时。</span></p> <p>Equifax$(EFX)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">提供了一个相对正面的案例。尽管上个月数据泄露丑闻扩大，比先前披露的多了</span>240<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万人，但股价并没有接近去年</span>9<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月份的低点。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/f98acfc1fb18d728a25206da8847693c\"></span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">目前为止，除了与违约相关的直接成本之外，</span>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的收益几乎没有影响</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">客户似乎并没有成群结队地抛弃这项服务。</span></p> <p>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">是三大信用报告机构之一，它能够剔除与违约相关的成本，并在非</span>GAAP<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">准则下显示盈利。</span></p> <p>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的问题是让黑客获取了</span>1.43<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">亿消费者的个人信息，包括</span>209000<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">人的信用卡号码。</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的问题不涉及黑客或信用卡。相反，它把</span>5000<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">万用户的资料暴露给了政治咨询公司剑桥分析</span>(Cambridge Analytica)<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">，这家公司利用这些数据进行针对传播帮助特朗普赢得大选。然后，在这件事变成公共事件前的两年时间里，</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">无所作为。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">如果</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">像</span>Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">一样，可以把解决数据问题的一次性成本隔离开来，这可能会对股价有所帮助。但这也许是不可能的——</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">已经采取了各种安全措施，包括雇佣数千名内容监控人员，可能会有永久的利润率下降。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">商业模式也有不同</span>:Equifax<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的主要客户是需要消费者数据的企业，公司主要需要重新获得他们的信任，而不是普通大众的信任。</span>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">的主要客户也是企业，他们购买广告，但它也必须吸引消费者——如果因为</span>#<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">联合抵制</span>facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">运动或其他因素，整体使用量大幅下降，广告和市场影响也会下降。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\"><img src=\"https://static.laohu8.com/e1411a12ed4b2cf25cd3e7491bda4531\"></span></p> <p>Facebook<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">下次财报会在</span>5<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">月</span>2<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">号公布，也就是剑桥分析丑闻后的</span>48<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">天。这个长度，已经和上面这些案例的平均值很近了。</span></p> <p><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">仅仅因为这些下跌通常是一时的，并不意味着这些公司会去到新的高点。受亚马逊</span>$(AMZN)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">影响，去年</span>Target<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">比受丑闻困扰时还低，而</span>$(BP)$<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">从未回到</span>2010<span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">年的高峰。</span></p> <p><em><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light'; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;\">谨供虎友们参考，文章翻译自</span><span style=\"font-family: '等线 Light';\">seekingalpha.com </span></em>#Facebook危机#</p></body></html>","text":"丑闻引起了Facebook$(FB)$股票下跌，这会持续多久呢？这问题好像无法知道，但我们可以从历史发生过丑闻的其他公司，来窥测一下。 下面这份表格，列出了2010年以来八家受丑闻影响的公司大概情况，从事件类型到下跌幅度，以及下跌时间： 不包括Facebook，平均下跌时间是63天，平均下跌幅度是35%。 看，Chipotle$(CMG)$的股票曲线像一个超大的墨西哥卷饼。几年来，这家公司一直受食品安全问题困扰着。 2015年发生了一系列大肠杆菌污染事件后，Chipotle改变了食品处理程序。显然这阻止了大肠杆菌的肆虐，但问题并没有结束。去年有一场诺如病毒爆发，还涉及一名生病的员工，以及晚些时候在洛杉矶发生的另一起事件。 这只股票最终在2月份触底，当时他们从塔可钟(Taco Bell)挖来新的首席执行官，取代了之前的公司创始人。Chipotle的声誉还处在风险之中，目前还不清楚能不能hold住最近的这个底部。 除Chipotle外，其他几家公司都不到六个月就走出丑闻阴影。Facebook的下跌时间已经超过了Equifax，下跌百分比已经超过富国银行$(WFC)$和Target$(TGT)$当时。 Equifax$(EFX)$提供了一个相对正面的案例。尽管上个月数据泄露丑闻扩大，比先前披露的多了240万人，但股价并没有接近去年9月份的低点。 目前为止，除了与违约相关的直接成本之外，Equifax的收益几乎没有影响，客户似乎并没有成群结队地抛弃这项服务。 Equifax是三大信用报告机构之一，它能够剔除与违约相关的成本，并在非GAAP准则下显示盈利。 Equifax的问题是让黑客获取了1.43亿消费者的个人信息，包括209000人的信用卡号码。Facebook的问题不涉及黑客或信用卡。相反，它把5000万用户的资料暴露给了政治咨询公司剑桥分析(Cambridge Analytica)，这家公司利用这些数据进行针对传播帮助特朗普赢得大选。然后，在这件事变成公共事件前的两年时间里，Facebook无所作为。 如果Facebook像Equifax一样，可以把解决数据问题的一次性成本隔离开来，这可能会对股价有所帮助。但这也许是不可能的——Facebook已经采取了各种安全措施，包括雇佣数千名内容监控人员，可能会有永久的利润率下降。 商业模式也有不同:Equifax的主要客户是需要消费者数据的企业，公司主要需要重新获得他们的信任，而不是普通大众的信任。Facebook的主要客户也是企业，他们购买广告，但它也必须吸引消费者——如果因为#联合抵制facebook运动或其他因素，整体使用量大幅下降，广告和市场影响也会下降。 Facebook下次财报会在5月2号公布，也就是剑桥分析丑闻后的48天。这个长度，已经和上面这些案例的平均值很近了。 仅仅因为这些下跌通常是一时的，并不意味着这些公司会去到新的高点。受亚马逊$(AMZN)$影响，去年Target比受丑闻困扰时还低，而$(BP)$从未回到2010年的高峰。 谨供虎友们参考，文章翻译自seekingalpha.com #Facebook危机#","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173720","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["TGT","AMZN","WFC","EFX","FB","CMG","BP"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":2175,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2027,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":25,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/173780"}
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