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2021-05-25

How another 'crypto winter' could affect Coinbase's stock price, according to Mizuho

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Mizuho has a neutral rating on the stock.The price of bitcoin was trading at just over$37,000 on Tuesday morning, well above its recent lows but still roughly 40% below its record high from April after a bout of extreme volatility in the crypto market.The potential for a “winter,” which refers to a period when the price of bitcoin and other digital coins are stuck at low levels following a price crash, could mean a significant hit to Coinbase’s business, Mizuho said in a note to clients.Indeed,one example of a crypto winter would be the decline in digital asset prices that started in late 2017.“The harsh winter of 2018 resulted in volumes drying up, which adversely impacted COIN’s transacting users and retail revenues (~80% of total). Although all outcomes are still feasible for 2021, a crypto winter may mean 15% to 20% potential downside to current consensus sales expectations,” the note said.Mizuho’s warning differs from some other Wall Street firms, who have said that the drop in prices for cryptocurrency is not a huge deal or even a positive, given its potential to drive higher trading activity.Wedbush said that prices directly impacted only about2% of the company’s revenue. Goldman Sachs said investors should instead focus on volatility which would be the “bigger driver in the near term.”In a way, that view makes Coinbase look more like an investment bank, in which increased trading during a downturn can shore up the financial results even if other areas of the business take a short-term hit.However, Mizuho’s note argued that the price drop risks driving users and interest away from Coinbase and depressing the overall business for the foreseeable future.The firm did a regression analysis that found that the price of bitcoin was the most important factor in projecting users and volumes on Coinbase. The dramatic fall in the price of bitcoin in late 2017 and early 2018 led to a sustained lower level of activity for the exchange platform, Mizuho said.“For COIN, the winter was unpleasant. Monthly transacting users dropped from 2.7mn in 1Q18 to 0.8mn in 1Q19, which weighed on retail transaction revenue,” the note said.To be sure, the crypto market has grown dramatically over the past year and attracted more institutional users, which could make prior trading data less reliable for future projection.Coinbase went public through a direct listing in April, opening trading at $381 per share. After initially popping above $400, the stock has steadily declined and closed just above $225 on Monday.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["MKFG","AONE.U"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":21,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/138410212"}