How another 'crypto winter' could affect Coinbase's stock price, according to Mizuho

cnbc2021-05-25

The sharp decline in the prices of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in recent weeks has raised risks for a “crypto winter” that could drag downCoinbase, according to investment firm Mizuho.The firm ...

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精彩评论

Ancy
2021-05-26
Ancy
Winter is coming
Ancy
2021-05-26
Ancy
Oh damn
tss
2021-05-26
tss
The crypto world does really has a lot of creative terms to describe the situation[开心]
andrew123
2021-05-26
andrew123
The higher the volatility the more transaction done. The only winner is the exchange. More n more mainstream financial inst have now start to accept crypto. The only party popper will be regulator impose/ban crypto trading. Like n comment
SKHan
2021-05-26
SKHan
Very cold indeed
小小只样
2021-05-26
小小只样
[Sad]

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Mizuho has a neutral rating on the stock.The price of bitcoin was trading at just over$37,000 on Tuesday morning, well above its recent lows but still roughly 40% below its record high from April after a bout of extreme volatility in the crypto market.The potential for a “winter,” which refers to a period when the price of bitcoin and other digital coins are stuck at low levels following a price crash, could mean a significant hit to Coinbase’s business, Mizuho said in a note to clients.Indeed,one example of a crypto winter would be the decline in digital asset prices that started in late 2017.“The harsh winter of 2018 resulted in volumes drying up, which adversely impacted COIN’s transacting users and retail revenues (~80% of total). Although all outcomes are still feasible for 2021, a crypto winter may mean 15% to 20% potential downside to current consensus sales expectations,” the note said.Mizuho’s warning differs from some other Wall Street firms, who have said that the drop in prices for cryptocurrency is not a huge deal or even a positive, given its potential to drive higher trading activity.Wedbush said that prices directly impacted only about2% of the company’s revenue. Goldman Sachs said investors should instead focus on volatility which would be the “bigger driver in the near term.”In a way, that view makes Coinbase look more like an investment bank, in which increased trading during a downturn can shore up the financial results even if other areas of the business take a short-term hit.However, Mizuho’s note argued that the price drop risks driving users and interest away from Coinbase and depressing the overall business for the foreseeable future.The firm did a regression analysis that found that the price of bitcoin was the most important factor in projecting users and volumes on Coinbase. The dramatic fall in the price of bitcoin in late 2017 and early 2018 led to a sustained lower level of activity for the exchange platform, Mizuho said.“For COIN, the winter was unpleasant. Monthly transacting users dropped from 2.7mn in 1Q18 to 0.8mn in 1Q19, which weighed on retail transaction revenue,” the note said.To be sure, the crypto market has grown dramatically over the past year and attracted more institutional users, which could make prior trading data less reliable for future projection.Coinbase went public through a direct listing in April, opening trading at $381 per share. After initially popping above $400, the stock has steadily declined and closed just above $225 on Monday.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":136026316,"gmtCreate":1621986837935,"gmtModify":1634185022700,"author":{"id":"3580700092461875","authorId":"3580700092461875","name":"Ancy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd3d8e2c475902e88a6751402e59a513","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Winter is coming&nbsp;","listText":"Winter is coming&nbsp;","text":"Winter is coming","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136026316","repostId":1188643824,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":136028127,"gmtCreate":1621986807569,"gmtModify":1634185023309,"author":{"id":"3580700092461875","authorId":"3580700092461875","name":"Ancy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd3d8e2c475902e88a6751402e59a513","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Oh damn&nbsp;","listText":"Oh damn&nbsp;","text":"Oh damn","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136028127","repostId":1188643824,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":136082725,"gmtCreate":1621985856267,"gmtModify":1634185038231,"author":{"id":"3580018165624371","authorId":"3580018165624371","name":"tss","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bfadb5535126e538d3cb06c19f09696","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"The crypto world does really has a lot of creative terms to describe the situation[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"The crypto world does really has a lot of creative terms to describe the situation[开心]&nbsp;","text":"The crypto world does really has a lot of creative terms to describe the situation[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136082725","repostId":1188643824,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":136083449,"gmtCreate":1621985636881,"gmtModify":1634185041687,"author":{"id":"3576260758860416","authorId":"3576260758860416","name":"andrew123","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"The higher the volatility the more transaction done. The only winner is the exchange. More n more mainstream financial inst have now start to accept crypto. The only party popper will be regulator impose/ban crypto trading. Like n comment","listText":"The higher the volatility the more transaction done. The only winner is the exchange. More n more mainstream financial inst have now start to accept crypto. The only party popper will be regulator impose/ban crypto trading. Like n comment","text":"The higher the volatility the more transaction done. The only winner is the exchange. More n more mainstream financial inst have now start to accept crypto. The only party popper will be regulator impose/ban crypto trading. Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136083449","repostId":1188643824,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":136091094,"gmtCreate":1621983446018,"gmtModify":1634185064918,"author":{"id":"3573471135601329","authorId":"3573471135601329","name":"SKHan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb016a1e76d427cf4bc5ef3a5d38289","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Very cold indeed","listText":"Very cold indeed","text":"Very cold indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/136091094","repostId":1188643824,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":138719217,"gmtCreate":1621962089639,"gmtModify":1634185121023,"author":{"id":"3581842076108699","authorId":"3581842076108699","name":"小小只样","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7f90d0dc72cf5dbd2ac5c13542c4c87","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[Sad]&nbsp;","listText":"[Sad]&nbsp;","text":"[Sad]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/138719217","repostId":1188643824,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":33,"commentSize":24,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1188643824"}