腾讯财报_老虎社区_美港股上老虎 - 老虎社区

小可爱的大脑虎

腾讯财报

@秋源俊二：初恋脸快变身了，聊聊腾讯面临的一些挑战

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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dbedf8477c845659ceeb2e19c94b301\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"439\"></p> <p>没梦想那会，逆势抄底腾讯，去年疫情最低点，也同样逆势加仓。</p> <p>不过如今，经常想着甩掉这个初恋脸。</p> <p>对腾讯的认知，依然是一家好公司，未来收益率不会低于10%，确定性足够，但不够性感。原因在于，目前看不到清晰可见的增长接力棒，也没有风险被过度定价的阿尔法收益。</p> <p>今年腾讯的5.16游戏发布pineline，比起猪厂网易5.20发布的，逊色不少；游戏行业开始变天，渠道重要性下滑，质量因子提升。以前腾讯那套打法，可能会面一些挑战。</p> <p><i>具体可参考：《腾讯游戏的帝国裂缝：为什么没能诞生《原神》？</i></p> <p>广告业务，可以说是目前公布的互联网企业中，基本是最差劲的，落后于百度，也落后于微博，更不用说其他处于高速货币化期的知乎、快手了。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b437d6df9c7149078ecffdd156bb4092\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"376\"></p> <p>看着头都大了，未来预期可能视频号可能会释放一些广告库存，但目前视频号处于拉新增长初中期阶段，商业化还有些远。</p> <p>云计算就不提了，IaaS被华为反超，这是一个奇迹啊，全世界估计独一无二的情况，复盘过去美国云计算史，微软凭借SaaS优势，逐渐侵蚀IaaS，才逐渐取得比较好的成绩。</p> <p>腾讯云也不知道怎么个情况，被一个搞硬件出身的超越，闻所未闻。要知道IaaS是一个规模效应巨大的业务，如果没有特殊生产力或生产效率的变化，被颠覆简直不可思议。</p> <p>关于云计算业务的详细介绍，具体可参考：</p> <p><i>《一年降价12次，论亚马逊AWS如何“断人财路”？》</i></p> <p><i>《深度复盘：亚马逊AWS帝国，是如何被微软奇袭的？》</i></p> <p>一句话，初恋脸已经变身了。</p> <p>性感不再，容颜消逝，剩下的只是陪伴与长情吧。</p> <p>当然，这里也不是说腾讯完全没盼头：</p> <p>小程序同比增长三倍，未来可期，结合企业微信、腾讯文档、腾讯会议等OA一体化服务，大概率能在企业服务端，做出一些成绩，这是未来巨大的看点。</p> <p>订阅会员增值服务，持续表现优秀，老根据蓝钻、黄钻等业务，虽处于生命成熟后期，但视频和音乐会员，持续表现靓眼，未来还有视频号、微信直播生态的利润释放，VAS应该能成就一定增长变现。</p> <p>现在吧，腾讯不再性感，中低档增速，也没什么阿尔法收益，估值也接近历史极限25PE（很难看到的），因而非常合适过日子，平时零花钱，找不到投资去向，是可以放进去的。</p> <p>预期未来三年，腾讯投资回报率不低于10%，但想高过20%，同样可能性非常小。</p> <p>周五和同事做了一场直播，这是当时直播素材，分析给大家。</p> <p><i>素材传PPT，怎么弄清晰，懂的朋友，可以留言，自己不会这些</i><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a198f243d841478a98e56c0305d71b27\" tg-width=\"64\" tg-height=\"64\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a8499e2987a4799aa85fb33a2e3d63c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6863c480cdc4f15bf1066819cb90754\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" 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<p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ec5be19bc504732aba3ffe0bfdcaee6\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38e3ba0e208243eca30dd3128acffc89\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b646a87eff5428ebca83ebc494495d0\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93f8a3c42a0840b2a0cc4edfd91d91fb\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d6f08b2e3f4f73a26288443ac6e156\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39f90c8cbe07444a9b1cd43856c0672c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d2ff43fbafd4341931126ed4276972d\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ae4c77872d6472cab80686c884492c2\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a791f3fbdee24c5ab39378b74bd47c21\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc384bbeb0ae45fea85a9ff2849288d9\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c435da31cd494d959cc4e1ed8ea0c741\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a386fea7af04a2f9e8bdaf13a4afa3c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d05c184633294f48bcfbe457aee25844\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61f0077b8a4c4fcc8e267dc49ff6737c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de97597eb34c4765b594278049709c1f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da4fbd3957c649189bb004412ef9356e\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\"></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dbedf8477c845659ceeb2e19c94b301\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"439\"></p> <p>没梦想那会，逆势抄底腾讯，去年疫情最低点，也同样逆势加仓。</p> <p>不过如今，经常想着甩掉这个初恋脸。</p> <p>对腾讯的认知，依然是一家好公司，未来收益率不会低于10%，确定性足够，但不够性感。原因在于，目前看不到清晰可见的增长接力棒，也没有风险被过度定价的阿尔法收益。</p> <p>今年腾讯的5.16游戏发布pineline，比起猪厂网易5.20发布的，逊色不少；游戏行业开始变天，渠道重要性下滑，质量因子提升。以前腾讯那套打法，可能会面一些挑战。</p> <p><i>具体可参考：《腾讯游戏的帝国裂缝：为什么没能诞生《原神》？</i></p> <p>广告业务，可以说是目前公布的互联网企业中，基本是最差劲的，落后于百度，也落后于微博，更不用说其他处于高速货币化期的知乎、快手了。</p> <p><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b437d6df9c7149078ecffdd156bb4092\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"376\"></p> <p>看着头都大了，未来预期可能视频号可能会释放一些广告库存，但目前视频号处于拉新增长初中期阶段，商业化还有些远。</p> <p>云计算就不提了，IaaS被华为反超，这是一个奇迹啊，全世界估计独一无二的情况，复盘过去美国云计算史，微软凭借SaaS优势，逐渐侵蚀IaaS，才逐渐取得比较好的成绩。</p> <p>腾讯云也不知道怎么个情况，被一个搞硬件出身的超越，闻所未闻。要知道IaaS是一个规模效应巨大的业务，如果没有特殊生产力或生产效率的变化，被颠覆简直不可思议。</p> <p>关于云计算业务的详细介绍，具体可参考：</p> <p><i>《一年降价12次，论亚马逊AWS如何“断人财路”？》</i></p> <p><i>《深度复盘：亚马逊AWS帝国，是如何被微软奇袭的？》</i></p> <p>一句话，初恋脸已经变身了。</p> <p>性感不再，容颜消逝，剩下的只是陪伴与长情吧。</p> <p>当然，这里也不是说腾讯完全没盼头：</p> <p>小程序同比增长三倍，未来可期，结合企业微信、腾讯文档、腾讯会议等OA一体化服务，大概率能在企业服务端，做出一些成绩，这是未来巨大的看点。</p> <p>订阅会员增值服务，持续表现优秀，老根据蓝钻、黄钻等业务，虽处于生命成熟后期，但视频和音乐会员，持续表现靓眼，未来还有视频号、微信直播生态的利润释放，VAS应该能成就一定增长变现。</p> <p>现在吧，腾讯不再性感，中低档增速，也没什么阿尔法收益，估值也接近历史极限25PE（很难看到的），因而非常合适过日子，平时零花钱，找不到投资去向，是可以放进去的。</p> <p>预期未来三年，腾讯投资回报率不低于10%，但想高过20%，同样可能性非常小。</p> <p>周五和同事做了一场直播，这是当时直播素材，分析给大家。</p> <p><i>素材传PPT，怎么弄清晰，懂的朋友，可以留言，自己不会这些</i><img referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" 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今年腾讯的5.16游戏发布pineline，比起猪厂网易5.20发布的，逊色不少；游戏行业开始变天，渠道重要性下滑，质量因子提升。以前腾讯那套打法，可能会面一些挑战。 具体可参考：《腾讯游戏的帝国裂缝：为什么没能诞生《原神》？ 广告业务，可以说是目前公布的互联网企业中，基本是最差劲的，落后于百度，也落后于微博，更不用说其他处于高速货币化期的知乎、快手了。 看着头都大了，未来预期可能视频号可能会释放一些广告库存，但目前视频号处于拉新增长初中期阶段，商业化还有些远。 云计算就不提了，IaaS被华为反超，这是一个奇迹啊，全世界估计独一无二的情况，复盘过去美国云计算史，微软凭借SaaS优势，逐渐侵蚀IaaS，才逐渐取得比较好的成绩。 腾讯云也不知道怎么个情况，被一个搞硬件出身的超越，闻所未闻。要知道IaaS是一个规模效应巨大的业务，如果没有特殊生产力或生产效率的变化，被颠覆简直不可思议。 关于云计算业务的详细介绍，具体可参考： 《一年降价12次，论亚马逊AWS如何“断人财路”？》 《深度复盘：亚马逊AWS帝国，是如何被微软奇袭的？》 一句话，初恋脸已经变身了。 性感不再，容颜消逝，剩下的只是陪伴与长情吧。 当然，这里也不是说腾讯完全没盼头： 小程序同比增长三倍，未来可期，结合企业微信、腾讯文档、腾讯会议等OA一体化服务，大概率能在企业服务端，做出一些成绩，这是未来巨大的看点。 订阅会员增值服务，持续表现优秀，老根据蓝钻、黄钻等业务，虽处于生命成熟后期，但视频和音乐会员，持续表现靓眼，未来还有视频号、微信直播生态的利润释放，VAS应该能成就一定增长变现。 现在吧，腾讯不再性感，中低档增速，也没什么阿尔法收益，估值也接近历史极限25PE（很难看到的），因而非常合适过日子，平时零花钱，找不到投资去向，是可以放进去的。 预期未来三年，腾讯投资回报率不低于10%，但想高过20%，同样可能性非常小。 周五和同事做了一场直播，这是当时直播素材，分析给大家。 素材传PPT，怎么弄清晰，懂的朋友，可以留言，自己不会这些","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133519732","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["TCEHY","00700","QNETCN"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":1764,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1767,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":["TCEHY","00700"],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"CN","currentLanguage":"CN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"andRepostAutoSelectedFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":8,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ZH_CN"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"isTiger":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"url":"/m/post/137295529"}