摩根大忽悠，美光必破50刀

2017-11-27

$美光科技(MU)$
盘前摩根斯坦利发布消息，看空内存价格，看空三星，看空美光和西数。
本人在半导体行业，半导体缺货是行业共识，不可能短期缓解。缺货已经蔓延到了MCU，甚至晶圆供应商，半导体货期普遍半年。这种缺货原因是因为手机等消费用量猛增，几何倍数猛增，产线无法满足几何倍数的增幅，导致行业，乃至晶圆缺货。
缺货会持续到2019年，至少，中国本土科技崛起乏力，半导体落后较多，晶圆更是依赖国外。美光等半导体厂商业绩不会差，我司市场部分配货而焦头烂额，订单太多，货不够，要是能产量上去，业绩更好看，大家都在扩大产能。
半导体业绩必涨！#美光发财报看多or看空#

带你认识一家公司

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免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

精彩评论

大鹌鹑
2017-11-27
大鹌鹑
他们就能吓唬吓唬那些意志不坚定的小散，然后自己逢低进场。事情是做出来的，从来不是分析和报告出来的。
- cool3d:
  那些機構都是吃散戶肉而穫利的，不奇怪，所以要看產業前景和該公司的基本面，不要被那些機構誘騙上當。
- 五月的青涩苹:
  美光市盈率低，业绩出色，趋势上升，是黄金股。按12月将发布的预期财报，美光市盈率将9以下，爆发60刀不成问题。
  很怀疑摩根的用意，庄家要进场了吧！
魔法商缘
2017-11-28
魔法商缘
摩根说的并没有错，美光基本面非常的好，指标很不错，短期仍然有很好的表现，但是摩根说的是长期看空内存行业，比较技术门槛不是特别高，很容易被其他科技公司突破，利润率未来肯定会有个走低的过程。
- 魔法商缘回复五月的青涩苹:
  确实，半导体只有华为这样的巨头才能玩得起，要跟三大巨头竞争太难了。
- 五月的青涩苹回复魔法商缘:
  国家为了搞存储，砸了重金成立长江存储，2020年也难达到美光水平。国内私企除了几大公司，如华为砸得起钱，创业公司根本砸不起钱玩半导体。
- 大鹌鹑:
  你这个说法值得商榷啊，以前内存行业很多玩家的，现在只剩三家，谁看着这块利润不眼红啊？美国那么强大的基础科技，也只出了一家美光而已。
- 魔法商缘回复66bdf167:
  对于那些科技巨头来说，比芯片，处理器容易多了，国内很多科技公司都可以突破，只是内存这东西前期投入太大了。
- 66bdf167:
  内存的技术门槛可不低啊
72fcdf9a
2017-11-28
72fcdf9a
大摩说的是长期看空。dram,flash，这些内存行业。内因三星已经积极扩产了，外因紫光跟英特尔合作的内存厂也快生产了。内存行业降价是未来的大趋势吧，而且这么高的毛利是根本不可持续的。内存行业的技术也不是特别高，很多厂商都有的，只是投资周期长，产量不可能一下子就上来。摩尔定律已到极限了。优势厂商的优势已经不在了。
- 五月的青涩苹:
  我不是这样认为，手机对内存与闪存的增速太快，缺货其实在2016年就存在。手机存储容量普遍翻一番，可对于裸片来讲，需要两片，供需一下子打破。苹果2年后会不会低配128G？那又是产能紧缺。
  wafe生产公司就那么几家，WAFE缺货可以导致整行业缺货。Nand技术是不是什么高科技，可9nm工艺确实是高精尖工艺，如果你的工艺落后，你的晶圆面积大了，成本高，功耗还高。苹果会接受功耗高的？
九格
2017-11-28
九格
摩根看空的理由是估值过高吧？并没有不承认半导体业绩好啊
- 五月的青涩苹:
  看看市盈率，很低啊。 12月财报快到了，市盈率又要更低了。。。
哥野的有內涵
2017-11-27
哥野的有內涵
刚好加仓2层，每跌5个点加仓2层。直到2倍杠杆用关。
机构猎杀者
2017-11-28
机构猎杀者
都知道是忽悠，但是毕竟是散户，大摩看空其它散户就是要抛。还得跌一段时间。

发表看法

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12月财报快到了，市盈率又要更低了。。。","text":"看看市盈率，很低啊。 12月财报快到了，市盈率又要更低了。。。","html":"看看市盈率，很低啊。 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