鲍威尔登场时间敲定！有望透露重大货币政策举措，小心今晚上演调仓风暴

金十数据2023-08-18

鲍威尔或借助杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会暗示货币政策重要节点。美股价值2.2万亿美元的期权周五到期，杰克逊霍尔年会可能触发大规模调仓。美联储日程显示，美联储主席鲍威尔将于8月25日在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度央行行长会议上发表有关经济前景的演讲，这次讲话定于美国东部时间上午10点05分开始（北京时间晚上10:05）。杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会经常成为美联储暗示货币政策重要节点的窗口，届时鲍威尔将有机会就...

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蹦米
2023-08-18
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田园浪漫
2023-08-18
田园浪漫
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It is expected to disclose major monetary policy measures, and be careful to stage a position adjustment storm 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Fishman估计，约有价值2.2万亿美元与股票和指数挂钩的较长期期权合约将于周五到期。投资者必须决定是将期权展期，还是建立新的头寸——这一过程会导致交易量大幅飙升，并可能导致价格突然波动。这一次的OpEx事件（期权到期）出现在一个关键时刻——标普500指数今年的大幅上涨势头开始受到冲击，投资者押注强劲的美国经济将迫使美联储进一步提高利率。虽然期权到期事件通常为那些希望洗牌大额头寸的人提供了一个流动性窗口，但它也为反复无常的股市增添了另一个复杂性——股市容易出现盘中抛售和频繁逆转。此外，交易员面临的更大挑战是，当前零日期权（0DTE）泛滥，以及做市商最近仓位的变化。预测OpEx的结果是徒劳的。但最近的历史表明，美股在OpEx事件发生后往往会上涨。据外媒收集的数据显示，自去年年初以来，在OpEx后的一周，标普500指数除了六次外，其余时间都在上涨。但分析服务公司SpotGamma的创始人布伦特•科丘巴（Brent Kochuba）表示，在杰克逊霍尔举行年度政策论坛之前，听从这种模式可能是危险的。鉴于目前期权成本的低迷，他建议投资者考虑购买保护措施。他说：“OpEx会释放了一些定向波动，下周的杰克逊霍尔年会将起到催化作用。现在是买入一些较长期看跌期权对冲的合理时机，因隐含波动率尚未对标普500指数下跌作出反应。”由于全球债券收益率飙升，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌。该指数8月份下跌近5%，有望创下2023年最糟糕的月度表现。有一类市场参与者值得关注——将买卖期权作为投资策略的一部分，并每月重新调整持仓的基金，比如Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF（QYLD）。当他们在一个月的第三个星期五左右建立头寸时，这种活动可能会给交易员增加一层不确定性。对于那些更谨慎地使用衍生品的投资者来说，这一次他们可能很难做出配置决定。随着今年的宠儿科技股跌至8月排行榜底部，标普500指数连续第三周下跌，对冲损失的压力正在积聚。事实上，零日期权的交易行为最近倾向于看跌期权。然而，由于经济数据强于预期，企业获利预估开始上升，因此有理由认为，目前的回调可能是短暂的。这是摩根大通交易部门的观点。该部门预计，在经历了可能由季节性疲软和美联储政策不确定性推动的近期动荡之后，美股将达到历史高点。同样有争议的还有做市商，他们是期权交易的另一方，必须买卖股票以平衡其风险敞口。高盛表示，上周，这群人今年首次转为“伽马空头”头寸，他们的活动有可能放大市场波动。 加拿大皇家银行资本市场的衍生品策略主管Amy Wu Silverman表示，由于杰克逊霍尔可能成为引发波动的事件，鉴于交易商的立场，任何股市回调都可能迅速恶化。 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