特斯拉的市值能达到2万亿美元吗？

虎嗅2022-01-11

上周初，去年上涨了54.5%的电动车巨头特斯拉(TSLA)盘中再度突破1200美元，接近1243.49美元的历史高点，但近日又跌破了1200美元关口。周一（1月10日），特斯拉打破连跌四日的局面，收涨3.03%，至1058.12美元。目前华尔街上看好特斯拉的声音越来越多，不少分析师近期纷纷上调该股目标价，去年第四季度交付量超出预期是促使分析师这样做的主要原因。特斯拉当季汽车销量约为30.9万辆，...

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精彩评论

晓宇哦哦
2022-01-11
晓宇哦哦
特斯拉这个泡沫迟早破裂
- Jason小熊:
  破不破裂我不知道，但是我赚一波就跑路
- 顺盈:
  你说的对啊，加油做空吧
- Joezm:
  像你這种我猜应该是亏的只剩短裤🩳了吧[开心][开心][开心]
- 生蚝在哪:
  [开心]
- 先生不教书:
  对对对，你说的都对

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Morgan)分析师瑞安·布林克曼(Ryan Brinkman)给出的目标价为295美元，这意味着特斯拉将大幅下跌约70%。布里克曼认为，特斯拉目前的汽车产量只有丰田汽车的十分之一，估值太高了。GLJ Research创始人戈登·约翰逊(Gordon Johnson)给出的目标价最低，仅为67美元。约翰逊认为，除了电动车，没有理由认为特斯拉的其他业务能做得多好。他说：“打个比方，假如麦当劳开始卖运动鞋、椅子或者钢琴这些东西，这些业务的估值是可以加在总估值里的，但对汽车公司来说，股价要反映产量的增加，看涨的话这家公司得实现其他汽车公司无法媲美的产量，卖车和卖iPhone或者衬衫这类产品是两回事。”（多头则认为特斯拉在德州奥斯汀和柏林的超级工厂可以解决产量这个问题。） 约翰逊还认为，一旦出现竞争对手，特斯拉在美国的市场份额将面临大幅下降，因为在中国，特斯拉的市场份额已经从23%下降到11% ，在欧盟，从33%降到了15%。约翰逊在向《巴伦周刊》介绍了自己的估值模型后指出，他担心他给出的67美元目标价都太高了。约翰逊说：“我因为这个目标价收到过死亡威胁，现在我完全不接听未知来电。”《巴伦周刊》认为，目标价被上调对股价走势的影响不一定会像股票评级被上调那么大，在利率上升的环境下，目前成长股整体面临的阻力是巨大的。另外一个电动车行业始终存在的基本面风险是，销量的增长可能无法达到预期。《巴伦周刊》在之前的报道中就曾指出，交付量增长不及预期在电动车竞争加剧之际会是致命的，这个领域的投资者对于电动车公司在业务执行上的差错没有多少耐心。《巴伦周刊》认为，不管特斯拉值不值1万亿美元，多头和空头的争论都不会停息，如果交付量能保持像去年第四季度那样的出色表现，股价就肯定会继续上涨。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":694846856,"gmtCreate":1641916638495,"gmtModify":1641916638495,"author":{"id":"3516593271667128","authorId":"3516593271667128","name":"晓宇哦哦","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/050ecdcbf1bbd49cd131f5ad5796fb50","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3516593271667128","authorIdStr":"3516593271667128"},"htmlText":"特斯拉这个泡沫迟早破裂","listText":"特斯拉这个泡沫迟早破裂","text":"特斯拉这个泡沫迟早破裂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694846856","repostId":2202778304,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7171865,"gmtCreate":1641956424538,"gmtModify":1641956424538,"authorId":3580252304559951,"author":{"id":3580252304559951,"idStr":"3580252304559951","authorId":3580252304559951,"name":"Jason小熊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95edcdfc87d881e5e519fd4f2151e6d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694846856,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"破不破裂我不知道，但是我赚一波就跑路","text":"破不破裂我不知道，但是我赚一波就跑路","html":"破不破裂我不知道，但是我赚一波就跑路"},{"id":7171288,"gmtCreate":1641941860636,"gmtModify":1641941860636,"authorId":3521353871016651,"author":{"id":3521353871016651,"idStr":"3521353871016651","authorId":3521353871016651,"name":"顺盈","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-3","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资合伙人虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到100万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbeac6bb240db7da8b972e5183d050ba","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/436cdf80292b99f0a992e78750ac4e3a","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506a259a7b456f037592c3b23c779599","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.22","exceedPercentage":"93.26%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694846856,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"你说的对啊，加油做空吧","text":"你说的对啊，加油做空吧","html":"你说的对啊，加油做空吧"},{"id":7171149,"gmtCreate":1641934985799,"gmtModify":1641934985799,"authorId":3503269038909281,"author":{"id":3503269038909281,"idStr":"3503269038909281","authorId":3503269038909281,"name":"Joezm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc9e88bfa146375407fd3ee44fed8c5e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694846856,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"像你這种我猜应该是亏的只剩短裤🩳了吧[开心][开心][开心]","text":"像你這种我猜应该是亏的只剩短裤🩳了吧[开心][开心][开心]","html":"像你這种我猜应该是亏的只剩短裤🩳了吧[开心][开心][开心]"},{"id":7171143,"gmtCreate":1641934197690,"gmtModify":1641934197690,"authorId":3550271025677296,"author":{"id":3550271025677296,"idStr":"3550271025677296","authorId":3550271025677296,"name":"生蚝在哪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35c85cd7b70e2828bfa83b647a07781b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694846856,"type":1,"supId":7170992,"prevId":0,"content":"[开心]","text":"[开心]","html":"[开心]"},{"id":7170992,"gmtCreate":1641918663275,"gmtModify":1641918663275,"authorId":3557390182128664,"author":{"id":3557390182128664,"idStr":"3557390182128664","authorId":3557390182128664,"name":"先生不教书","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c540e017aca794c5a2bf03b717fc053d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":694846856,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"对对对，你说的都对","text":"对对对，你说的都对","html":"对对对，你说的都对"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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