Pinterest's Best Days Are Behind It

Seeking Alpha2021-09-20

Summary Pinterest's shares have dropped 40% from peaks, a reflection of slowing user growth. In the United States, which is Pinterest's largest revenue generator, users are actually pulling away from...

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精彩评论

ValuInvestor
2021-09-20
ValuInvestor
Not much growth left
wltan
2021-09-20
wltan
Ok
- Win Win:
  Yes
Investoro
2021-09-20
Investoro
Never liked Pinterest
- Deon99:
  Like
- ZStarWyvernZ:
  cool
gogogofo
2021-09-20
gogogofo
Good
- gogogofo:
  yes
jazinfinity
2021-09-20
jazinfinity
Pinterest got pinned down!
- jazinfinity:
  like and comment!
- Ron71:
  666
Ahsiang
2021-09-20
Ahsiang
Like pls
- Gablcm:
  Done

发表看法

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For years, investors cheered this differentiated social media platform that catered to a more mature, purse-powerful audience. Pinterest was highly valued for a product that was conducive toward advertising for products, and for years the company enjoyed fierce revenue growth. The pandemic and the surge in internet activity and usage only helped to fuel the growth story for Pinterest.\nBut now, after a years-long and fierce rally in Pinterest shares, the bullish story for this name is getting tired. Since the company's most recent earnings release in late July, shares of Pinterest have plunged to YTD lows, a reflection of shocking user defection.\nData by YCharts\nThe question for investors now: is Pinterest reaching a buy point? In my view, the answer is no:while it's true that Pinterest's post-correction valuation has reached more interesting levels, I see plenty of fundamental risks from the company's user deceleration ahead. Watch and wait on the sidelines here.\nValuation update\nFirst things first: we will acknowledge that Pinterest, now technically in a bear market after falling 40% from peaks, is not as egregiously expensive as it used to be (one of my chief arguments against the stock earlier; I had sounded off a bearish note on the stock in the mid-$70s).\nAt current share prices near $55, Pinterest trades at a market cap of $35.31 billion. After we net off the $2.14 billion of cash on Pinterest's most recent balance sheet, the company's resulting enterprise value is $33.16 billion.\nFor next year (FY22), meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Pinterest to generate revenue of $3.43 billion, representing 31% y/y growth (still high enough to be considered a growth stock, but not as compelling as a story as during the pandemic, when soaring engagement and a recovery in ad rates consistently had Pinterest hovering around a ~70% revenue growth rate).\nAgainst this revenue expectation, Pinterest trades at 9.7x EV/FY22 revenue.This is notable since this is a rare moment that the stock is trading below a double-digit valuation multiple. Still, considering the serious risks of user deceleration ahead, I'm not interested in touching this stock until it falls closer to an 8x FY22 revenue multiple (implying a~$46 price target).\nTriggering an alarm in U.S. user trends\nWhat's the cause of the recent pessimism in Pinterest? It's one thing, and it's a very clear trend:Pinterest's U.S. users are disappearing,a risk I have consistently called out for this stock that didn't materialize in full until Pinterest's most recent quarter (Q2).\nTake a look at the chart below:\nFigure 1. Pinterest Q2 MAU trends\nSource: Pinterest Q2 investor presentation\nPinterest's U.S. users dropped off at a -5% y/y pace to just 91 million. Even scarier still is the fact that sequentially, the company lost 7 million MAUs relative to 98 million U.S. users in Q1.\nWhy are U.S. users so important? After all, they represent less than a quarter of total users. The answer lies in ARPU: a U.S. social media user generates far greater ad dollars than a customer in any other part of the world. What you can see in the chart below is that a U.S. user's $5.08 ARPU dwarfs, by 14x, their international counterparts:\nFigure 2. Pinterest ARPU by geo\nSource: Pinterest Q2 investor presentation\nThe United States also generated $480 million, or 78% of Pinterest's $613 million revenue in Q2. It's safe to say this is a customer segment Pinterest cannot afford to lose.\nThe international story is not much better. Apart from the fact that international ARPU is still playing a long catch-up game to the U.S., Pinterest also shed 17 million international users sequentially.\nThis trend is illustrative of two things:\n\nAs feared, the pre-pandemic era is leading to a decline in internet and social media usage. Faithful daily checkers of various social media accounts are dropping their usage or slimming their portfolio of applications, hurting \"fringe\" platforms like Pinterest\nThe social media landscape has become huge and competitive, and newer platforms like TikTok are dominating legacy brands.\n\nSocial media companies can become \"viral\" overnight, but once they start losing users, the vicious cycle is difficult to overcome. Only one social media company has been able to withstand severely slowed user growth, and that's Twitter(NYSE:TWTR)- and it did so largely due to the endorsement of leading figures like former President Donald Trump, and by pivoting to becoming more of a news platform. It's unclear what Pinterest's ability to pivot may be.\nHere's how Pinterest CFO Todd Morgenfeld described the user loss situation on the Q2 earnings call:\n\n \"But in summary, we believe that nearly all of what we're seeing now is the unwinding of some of the engagement benefits that we got during an unprecedented period of time when people were stuck at home and had more time to spend on some of our core use cases.\n\n\n We also continue to monitor other factors, including competition and the impact of Google's recent search algorithm changes while continuing to improve our product and ramp up our marketing efforts to increase engagement over time. We're encouraged that our most engaged monthly active users, those that use our mobile applications, grew year-over-year, both in the U.S. and globally. These users contributed a significant majority of both total impressions and total revenue in Q2. Additionally, the investments we've been making to more efficiently realize value from the unique existing engagement we have is working well. Specifically, the engagement we have on shopping services appears to be more resilient than overall engagement. We plan to continue investing in helping Pinners shop for products they love at a price point they want and in helping merchants get discovered and connected to people who will love their products and services.\"\n\nIt's not a pretty picture: right now, Pinterest's revenue growth is being propped up by easier comps versus the immediate onset of the pandemic, when advertisers turned away from pouring money into campaigns. If Pinterest's overall MAU growth has slowed to the single digits (and negative in the U.S.), the ~30% revenue growth that Wall Street is banking on in FY22 may not be achievable after all, and that's the reason for the current discount in Pinterest stock relative to historical multiples.\nHere's a sliver of good news\nThe one positive highlight (only one) from Pinterest's Q2 report was the fact that the company's profitability and adjusted EBITDA continues to hold up. Pinterest generated $178 million in adjusted EBITDA this quarter, representing a rich 29% margin: largely a reflection of economies of scale as Pinterest's cost of revenue shrinks as a percentage of its growing advertising intake.\nFigure 3. Pinterest adjusted EBITDA\nSource: Pinterest Q2 investor presentation\nAgain, however, margin expansion may be capped if Pinterest can't figure out how to revive its user growth, particularly in the U.S.\nKey takeaways\nPinterest's sharp decline in users in Q2 is a reminder of the fact that social media companies are built not on long-term customer contracts and recurring revenue, but users who are very fickle and have little loyalty to one platform (the only example of a social media company that has been able to hang on to its users for more than a decade is Facebook(NASDAQ:FB)).\nDon't buy the dip here just yet - the Pinterest balloon, in my view, still has plenty of air to be let out.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":860078826,"gmtCreate":1632113031665,"gmtModify":1632802745299,"author":{"id":"4087361572396550","authorId":"4087361572396550","name":"ValuInvestor","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a962911d3cd0763a9f0cb01392cacd9","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087361572396550","authorIdStr":"4087361572396550"},"htmlText":"Not much growth left","listText":"Not much growth left","text":"Not much growth 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Win","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a974b1a26fc593e3134cf7e90be9c166","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860028004,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Yes","text":"Yes","html":"Yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":860023588,"gmtCreate":1632109254344,"gmtModify":1632802772308,"author":{"id":"4094120438063010","authorId":"4094120438063010","name":"Investoro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a97d6c6ec600046a0c37bf13019d3f98","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094120438063010","authorIdStr":"4094120438063010"},"htmlText":"Never liked Pinterest&nbsp;","listText":"Never liked Pinterest&nbsp;","text":"Never liked Pinterest","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860023588","repostId":1147232939,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5930054,"gmtCreate":1632109366546,"gmtModify":1634791628962,"authorId":3582792583897658,"author":{"id":3582792583897658,"idStr":"3582792583897658","authorId":3582792583897658,"name":"Deon99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8be4c615e37e829678f74e51f6b4600d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860023588,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Like","text":"Like","html":"Like"},{"id":5931250,"gmtCreate":1632119554702,"gmtModify":1634791516829,"authorId":3563667976523421,"author":{"id":3563667976523421,"idStr":"3563667976523421","authorId":3563667976523421,"name":"ZStarWyvernZ","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860023588,"type":1,"supId":5930054,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>cool</u>","text":"<u>cool</u>","html":"<u>cool</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":860020075,"gmtCreate":1632108954097,"gmtModify":1632802774975,"author":{"id":"4090657250004720","authorId":"4090657250004720","name":"gogogofo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4285be107c6d2536e62759419c74c2fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4090657250004720","authorIdStr":"4090657250004720"},"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860020075","repostId":1147232939,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5930015,"gmtCreate":1632108963695,"gmtModify":1634791632238,"authorId":4090657250004720,"author":{"id":4090657250004720,"idStr":"4090657250004720","authorId":4090657250004720,"name":"gogogofo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4285be107c6d2536e62759419c74c2fe","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860020075,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"yes","text":"yes","html":"yes"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":860088411,"gmtCreate":1632107662233,"gmtModify":1632802786998,"author":{"id":"3577229603264633","authorId":"3577229603264633","name":"jazinfinity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1208221a570d94e334b2d76cd0baf1d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3577229603264633","authorIdStr":"3577229603264633"},"htmlText":"Pinterest got pinned down!","listText":"Pinterest got pinned down!","text":"Pinterest got pinned down!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860088411","repostId":1147232939,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5929845,"gmtCreate":1632107674477,"gmtModify":1634791645792,"authorId":3577229603264633,"author":{"id":3577229603264633,"idStr":"3577229603264633","authorId":3577229603264633,"name":"jazinfinity","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1208221a570d94e334b2d76cd0baf1d6","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860088411,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"like and comment!","text":"like and comment!","html":"like and comment!"},{"id":5943263,"gmtCreate":1632203355612,"gmtModify":1634790469179,"authorId":4087786607644270,"author":{"id":4087786607644270,"idStr":"4087786607644270","authorId":4087786607644270,"name":"Ron71","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46e59da94a802c8decb590fc9757c50c","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860088411,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<u>666</u>","text":"<u>666</u>","html":"<u>666</u>"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":860012187,"gmtCreate":1632106971249,"gmtModify":1632802793161,"author":{"id":"3582617881962608","authorId":"3582617881962608","name":"Ahsiang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310f96e7696af85ae33ece774a483d15","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582617881962608","authorIdStr":"3582617881962608"},"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860012187","repostId":1147232939,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5929936,"gmtCreate":1632108422097,"gmtModify":1634791638475,"authorId":3575234021908444,"author":{"id":3575234021908444,"idStr":"3575234021908444","authorId":3575234021908444,"name":"Gablcm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74534439efb63d24fa3da74d69426cb","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":860012187,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Done","text":"Done","html":"Done"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":86,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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