高盛：如果通胀持续上行会发生什么？

华尔街见闻2021-06-28

目前标普500指数已处于历史新高，仅比高盛4300点的全年目标点位低1%。但高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin警告称，4300的指数预期是建立在“通胀将减少，收益率会上升，拜登部分税改计划将通过成为法律”的宏观假设基础上的，如果上述假设出现变化，美股可能存在波动及回调风险。如果通胀持续上行会发生什么？目前高盛的基础假设是，通货膨胀飙升会是暂时的。随着未来3-6个月内临时补充的失业救济...

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精彩评论

AhWen
2021-06-29
AhWen
！
林九九
2021-06-29
林九九
[笑哭]
健安_1832
2021-06-29
健安_1832
等死吧
JinWee
2021-06-29
JinWee
黄金上升[财迷]
rocat
2021-06-29
rocat
Gg
- Bluez:
  嗯发表一次评论 $納指ETF(QQQ )$ [微笑]
EmilyWon
2021-06-29
EmilyWon
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
- kelvinlim:
  [微笑]
- rocat:
  Hao

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3634039><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>目前标普500指数已处于历史新高，仅比高盛4300点的全年目标点位低1%。\n但高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin警告称，4300的指数预期是建立在“通胀将减少，收益率会上升，拜登部分税改计划将通过成为法律”的宏观假设基础上的，如果上述假设出现变化，美股可能存在波动及回调风险。\n如果通胀持续上行会发生什么？\n目前高盛的基础假设是，通货膨胀飙升会是暂时的。随着未来3-6个月内临时补充的失业救济...</p>\n\n<a 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Kostin警告称，4300的指数预期是建立在“通胀将减少，收益率会上升，拜登部分税改计划将通过成为法律”的宏观假设基础上的，如果上述假设出现变化，美股可能存在波动及回调风险。\n如果通胀持续上行会发生什么？\n目前高盛的基础假设是，通货膨胀飙升会是暂时的。随着未来3-6个月内临时补充的失业救济到期，劳动力供应将在年底前大幅反弹，薪资压力将得到缓解，美国核心CPI明年将从目前的3.8%下降到2.3%。\n但Kostin警告称，美国通胀的超预期上行将对公司估值及利润率造成重大影响。如果企业未能将价格提高到足以抵消通胀的程度，包括工资在内投入成本不断上升可能会对利润率构成压力。\n基于高盛的自上向下的模型，美国核心CPI通胀每超出预测值1%，标普500指数成分股企业营收也将增长大约1个百分点，但净利润率会下滑10个基点左右。而在通胀温和变化的情况下，标准普尔500指数的每股收益相对于高盛的平均预测将保持不变。\n通胀的持续上行也将对公司估值构成“重大的不利影响”。\nKostin表示，通胀的持续上升可能导致美联储采取比目前预期更多的紧缩措施，提前加息并拉低股票估值。\n目前高盛预计美联储将在12月宣布将在2022年初开始缩减购债规模，并在2023年下半年开始加息。\n从历史角度，美国股市在低通胀的市场环境下通常表现较好。自1960年以来，标准普尔500指数在低通胀时期的年均实际回报率中值为15%，而在高通胀时期仅为9%。而在高通胀时期，股票在通胀下降（15%）的情况下比在通胀上升（2%）的情况下表现更好。\n在细分板块上，高盛认为高通胀将提振具有较高定价权的股票的相对表现。医疗保健、能源、房地产和消费品等板块将跑赢大盘。\n\n如果利率下降或上升超过市场预期会发生什么?\n目前高盛给予标普500指数的基准目标位定为4300，其假设条件是，10年期美债收益率到2021年底将升至1.9%，且美股市盈率将稳定在22x左右。\n高盛预计今年美国名义国债收益率的上升将主要受实际利率的推动，部分受全球债券收益率上升的推动；而股票风险溢价(ERP)将在今年下半年下降，抵消利率上升对股票估值的部分影响，并使市盈率在年底前大致持平。\n但高盛表示，如果美债利率因经济增长疲软而未能上升，那么企业的盈利也将下降。这意味着，尽管收益率下降，标准普尔500指数也会下降。\n在另一种情况下，在其他情况不变的情况下，如果利率上涨超出高盛的预期，到年底攀升至2.5%，标普500指数的基础点位将下降至3550，较目前点位有17%的下跌空间。\n\n如果拜登税改失败会发生什么？\n在拜登税改方面，目前高盛基本假设认为，拜登的全部税收提案的部分内容将在年底前成为法律，并于2022年生效，这将使标普500指数的EPS较现行税法下的预测下降5%。而在当前税收政策下，预计标普500指数2022年的每股收益将达到212美元，增幅为10%。\n\n在税改细节方面，高盛预计，联邦法定企业税率将从21%上调至25%，而不是拜登提议的28%。拟议的海外所得税上调计划中大约有一半将成为法律，高收入个人的资本利得税税率将提高到28%。\n基于这些假设，高盛预计标普500指数2022年的EPS将达到202美元（比2021年增长5%），而在当前税收政策下，预计2022年的EPS将达到212美元，增幅为10%。\n根据高盛对2021年底市盈率22.3倍的基本预测，如果出现“无税制改革”的情况，该行对2022年标普500指数EPS的预期将提高5%，支持4500点的目标位。\nKostin同时表示，如果企业所得税和资本利得税没有提高，成长型股票通常受到提振。在资本利得税方面，如果今年晚些时候增税政策落地，科技类股等成长型股票遭受抛售的潜在风险最大。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":150737781,"gmtCreate":1624927436143,"gmtModify":1633946945206,"author":{"id":"3587019794056493","authorId":"3587019794056493","name":"AhWen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d230dc3566b7fa178c968870c94fcab","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"！","listText":"！","text":"！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150737781","repostId":1144270623,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":150553574,"gmtCreate":1624922549698,"gmtModify":1633947093592,"author":{"id":"3569197262209930","authorId":"3569197262209930","name":"林九九","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150553574","repostId":1144270623,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150560757,"gmtCreate":1624921985779,"gmtModify":1633947115321,"author":{"id":"3553346853986978","authorId":"3553346853986978","name":"健安_1832","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a310972d59b708bb82abef5c003c84e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"等死吧","listText":"等死吧","text":"等死吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150560757","repostId":1144270623,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150226223,"gmtCreate":1624915777862,"gmtModify":1633947193329,"author":{"id":"3586588803796453","authorId":"3586588803796453","name":"JinWee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/076980e8ce7f368bfbfbebb765f0a3b0","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"黄金上升[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"黄金上升[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"黄金上升[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150226223","repostId":1144270623,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":150231256,"gmtCreate":1624902968475,"gmtModify":1631889672313,"author":{"id":"3576405243338366","authorId":"3576405243338366","name":"rocat","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e537c7a4cf09b6014ec1c1754eac4da9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Gg","listText":"Gg","text":"Gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150231256","repostId":1144270623,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5058604,"gmtCreate":1624919070547,"gmtModify":1631889672314,"authorId":3585481693131980,"author":{"id":3585481693131980,"authorId":3585481693131980,"name":"Bluez","avatar":"https://static.tig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