Amazon: Undervalued With Potential Upside Of 25%

seekingalpha2021-07-01

Summary Amazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. I initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. ...

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精彩评论

WangMeiLi
2021-07-14
WangMeiLi
Most of the stocks are plunged yesterday, including Amazon, time to buy it again now?
诗迷
2021-07-13
诗迷
Like and comment
AppleMango
2021-07-08
AppleMango
Is this undervalued so much? Do your home work! Pls like n comments
PS153
2021-07-08
PS153
wow
skli
2021-07-08
skli
Wow
ParableTalen
2021-07-07
ParableTalen
Hey, is my Amazon parcel correct? Because I ordered a bull.

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This is the current market capitalization  of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?I initiate","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"seekingalpha.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"translate_title":"亚马逊：价值被低估，潜在上涨25%","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9},"content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters.\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share).\nThe company's improving top line and bottom line performance (which is expected to continue) suggests that the stock is currently undervalued by 3.9%.\n\nDaria Nipot/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nCompany Overview\nAmazon(NASDAQ:AMZN), a $1.74 trillion company. This is the current market capitalization (as of 06/29/2021) of the company and this implies that it is currently 15.18% away from being a $2 trillion company, not bad no?\nAmazon is a unique and growing company that uses its disruptive platform to disrupt any new business it enters. For example, when Amazon announced the acquisition of Whole Foods, Walmart(NYSE:WMT), Kroger(NYSE:KR), Target(NYSE:TGT)took a nice hit in market value. I believe that the company will be able to keep delivering strong top line growth and continued growth in margins, fueled not only by the company's current business expansion but also by entering into new markets and new businesses.\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Amazon with a bullish rating and a fair value of $3576/share (vs. the current price of $3443/share). The FV is an algorithm-adjusted fair value (the algorithm takes into account fundamental and technical factors, such as DCF FV, momentum, etc.) and it implies that the stock is undervalued by 3.9%.\nTo compute the DCF FV, I used the trailing twelve-month numbers and I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. As with Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), I don't believe that Amazon's R&D is an operating expense, and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nCapitalizing on R&D expenses, we have now a more clear picture of the company (i.e. the restated operating margin is now 9.03% TTM vs the non-restated operating margin is 6.63% TTM).\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIn my DCF model, I assume a revenue growth for the Y1 of 21.2%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% and I assume a terminal year growth rate of 1.48% (or the current yield on 10Y Treasury). The decision of using the current and not expected yield is due to the willingness to remain market neutral (perhaps you can use Goldman Sachs expectations of 1.9%). The current assumptions lead to revenues of $1,253,844 million in Y10.\nAlong the road, I also assume an improving outlook for operating margins with the target operating margin of 13.2% (vs current restated operating margin of 9.03%). If the company will be able to meet this target, it will result in operating margins in Y10 of $163,097 million.\nFinally, in doing my estimates, I used a WACC of 5.75% and a sales to capital ratio (or how much the company is going to reinvest to keep its business growing) of 2.95.\nBy putting it together, I obtain a DCF value of $3328/share.\nMonte Carlo Simulation\nRather than showing you only my point estimates, which may be right but also may be wrong, let's use probability distributions for inputs. Simulations allow us to assess the impact of continuous risk (e.g., changes in operating margins). In particular, I would like to focus on what I consider the main inputs of interest to get a bigger picture of the risk in the company. Those inputs are:\n1. Revenue Growth:\nIn my DCF analysis, I assumed an expected CAGR Y2-Y5 of 15% with lower rates going forward. This assumption lead to revenues in Y10 of $1,253,844 million. While it is a reasonable assumption, Amazon is full of surprises, and it may deliver a top line growth well above my expectations. In the latter, I see a possible scenario with a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 24%, resulting in Y10 revenues of $1,989,952 million. However, we all know that regulators represent a big risk for the company. According to WSJ sources, if the \"giant-tech bill\" will pass, the company may be forced to either split into two companies or spin off its private-label product businesses. This represents a big risk that may slow down Amazon's growth, which could translate into a growth rate of 6% (resulting in Y10 revenues of $764,723 million). To sum up, I will assume a uniform distribution with a maximum of 24% and a minimum of 6%. The results are displayed below (this simulation and the next one have been performed 10,000 times).\nSource:Author's estimates\n2. Operating Margin:\nCurrently, Amazon has a restated operating margin of 9.03% TTM (vs not restated EBIT margin of 6.83%). In my DCF, I assumed a target operating margin of 13.2%. While this represents my most likely scenario for the company, I cannot close my eyes to the fact that, even if the company is improving its margins, it is following a very slow climb. Below, I display the non-restated EBIT margin for the last 5 years.\nSource:SeekingAlpha.com\nHowever, as I stated at the beginning, Amazon is a disruptive company with the ability to do extraordinary things. For instance, AWS presents a current operating margin of 30% TTM and a revenue growth rate of 29.53% in 2020. A trend which is expected to continue, driven by improving outlook and with new partners joining the party. The last to join the party are Ferrari(NYSE:RACE)and Swisscom(OTCPK:SWZCF)who have chosen AWS as their preferred cloud partner.\nIn 2020,according to Gartner, AWS generated revenue 2 times bigger than Microsoft(NASDAQ:MSFT). As stated by Gartner:\n\nThe worldwide \n infrastructure as a service(IaaS) market grew 40.7% in 2020 to total $64.3 billion, up from $45.7 billion in 2019, according to Gartner, Inc. Amazon retained the No. 1 position in the IaaS market in 2020, followed by Microsoft, Alibaba, Google and Huawei... Amazon continued to lead the worldwide IaaS market with $26.2 billion of revenue in 2020 and 41% market share.\n\nSource:Gartner.com\nFinally, to account for my concerns and beliefs, I will assume a triangular distribution with the following limits: the likeliest target operating margin of 13.2%, a maximum of 18.4%, and a minimum of 8% (close to the current company's EBIT margin). The results are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\n3. Cost of Capital:\nThe last input of interest is the cost of capital. In doing my analysis, I estimated a cost of capital of 5.8% (with the current 10Y rate of 1.48 and an implied ERP of 4.54%). However, I may be wrong due to sector risk estimates or changes in the business mix (or both). To account for the possibility that I made some mistakes along the road, I will rely on a lognormal distribution with the most likely scenario of 5.8%. The results of the simulation are displayed below.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy putting all of this together, the simulations return the following results.\nSource:Author's estimates\nFor completeness, I also display below the relative and cumulative frequency of the simulation.\nSource:Author's estimates\nBy looking at the results, we can see that the 50th percentile or the median is equal to $3274, close to the expected DCF FV of $3328. While the algorithm-adjusted FV of $3576 is the 60th percentile in my simulations (note also the long right tail).\nFinally, simulation results give us an interesting insight into a potential exit point. I believe that an interesting take profit point may be within the 80th percentile, which implies a potential upside of 24.89%. Why within the 80th percentile? I believe that, after reaching the $2.0 trillion company status, we will see the last climb of euphoria before investors start to take profits.\nFinal Thoughts\nBoth the algorithm-adjusted fair value and the Monte Carlo simulation suggest and support the bullish rating. The results found suggest that the stock is currently undervalued and that the company has still more room to go. What may drive the price to go higher? Well, there are different factors that may drive it. One of those is for sure corporate news. For instance, the company may introduce new products or announce a stock split (For the latter, I think this is unlikely, at least not now). However, don't forget also the other side, the risks. There are many risks associated with being invested in the company, one of those is represented by antitrust and regulators.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":145213328,"gmtCreate":1626225131164,"gmtModify":1633928885561,"author":{"id":"3586311073884660","authorId":"3586311073884660","name":"WangMeiLi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e42c8291e5033a92ae3c00b91053172b","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586311073884660","authorIdStr":"3586311073884660"},"htmlText":"Most of the stocks are plunged yesterday, including Amazon, time to buy&nbsp;it again&nbsp;now?","listText":"Most of the stocks are plunged yesterday, including Amazon, time to buy&nbsp;it again&nbsp;now?","text":"Most of the stocks are plunged yesterday, including Amazon, time to buy it again now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145213328","repostId":1113357649,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":145039922,"gmtCreate":1626182150066,"gmtModify":1633929341181,"author":{"id":"3586570953514754","authorId":"3586570953514754","name":"诗迷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede7919964a05a6754d4489382883c39","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586570953514754","authorIdStr":"3586570953514754"},"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145039922","repostId":1113357649,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":149895200,"gmtCreate":1625713093300,"gmtModify":1633938081832,"author":{"id":"3567141277226150","authorId":"3567141277226150","name":"AppleMango","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68d3e430c230d4cfd4e97044c56f2b6d","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3567141277226150","authorIdStr":"3567141277226150"},"htmlText":"Is this undervalued so much? Do your home work! Pls like n comments&nbsp;","listText":"Is this undervalued so much? Do your home work! Pls like n comments&nbsp;","text":"Is this undervalued so much? Do your home work! Pls like n comments","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149895200","repostId":1113357649,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":149330358,"gmtCreate":1625704228274,"gmtModify":1633938233904,"author":{"id":"3564565270877568","authorId":"3564565270877568","name":"PS153","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e185e8aa9ee6ee618f951b9141b9e40","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564565270877568","authorIdStr":"3564565270877568"},"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149330358","repostId":1113357649,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":149027431,"gmtCreate":1625697027723,"gmtModify":1631887912634,"author":{"id":"3583042826015243","authorId":"3583042826015243","name":"skli","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb36785e9f320f479b566e1e20e9c3e3","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583042826015243","authorIdStr":"3583042826015243"},"htmlText":"Wow&nbsp;","listText":"Wow&nbsp;","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149027431","repostId":1113357649,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":140717343,"gmtCreate":1625673217582,"gmtModify":1633938458198,"author":{"id":"3580300192386766","authorId":"3580300192386766","name":"ParableTalen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94daa928259bc550d0ee26f23a953bb8","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3580300192386766","authorIdStr":"3580300192386766"},"htmlText":"Hey, is my Amazon parcel correct? Because I ordered a bull.&nbsp;","listText":"Hey, is my Amazon parcel correct? Because I ordered a bull.&nbsp;","text":"Hey, is my Amazon parcel correct? Because I ordered a bull.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140717343","repostId":1113357649,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":409,"commentSize":96,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":9,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1113357649"}