一个特斯拉空头的认知：价格战没有奏效、自动驾驶依然遥远、马斯克的大饼画不圆

华尔街见闻2023-05-05

“特斯拉的投资故事与高预期和低概率挂钩”。特斯拉空头认为，特斯拉错误预期了降价带来的影响，甚至不可能在自动驾驶技术方面处于领先地位。5月5日周五，Albert Bridge 资本公司创始人和首席投资官 Andrew Dickson 在发表在媒体的专栏文章中表示，他正在做空特斯拉。他认为，特斯拉给自己定下的目标或许过于远大，价格战并未成功实现降本增利，而对自动驾驶时代的畅想也不切实际，“特斯拉的投资...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Ruosong
2023-05-06
Ruosong
特斯拉降价难道不是因为北京商报吗[可爱]
冯榕
2023-05-05
冯榕
特斯拉的空头从来没有胜过，他没资格说
MMSimona
2023-05-05
MMSimona
我特斯拉等了快半年还没拿到车，难道生产出来放着不发货？他说特斯拉没有成功出售每一辆车，或许是对的，不能做到每一辆车，但是大多数的车肯定是卖出去了吧
彝家阿黑哥
2023-05-05
彝家阿黑哥
特斯拉在电车上依然难于撖动
GUMAYISTA
2023-05-05
GUMAYISTA
在增程，混动上，特斯拉毫无竞争力
GUMAYISTA
2023-05-05
GUMAYISTA
特斯拉不改变产品品牌力，撑5年都是马斯克牛逼了
- 里二外三:
  火箭都能刹住车，马上火星都旅游了，难道造拖拉机的能超越做火箭的。无知者无畏！

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111267834?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb81a3884b93d8c4fb280d4c4c40c7ea","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-05-05 19:01","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1111267834","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"一个特斯拉空头的认知：价格战没有奏效、自动驾驶依然遥远、马斯克的大饼画不圆","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>“特斯拉的投资故事与高预期和低概率挂钩”。特斯拉空头认为，特斯拉错误预期了降价带来的影响，甚至不可能在自动驾驶技术方面处于领先地位。5月5日周五，Albert Bridge 资本公司创始人和首席投资官 Andrew Dickson 在发表在媒体的专栏文章中表示，他正在做空特斯拉。他认为，特斯拉给自己定下的目标或许过于远大，价格战并未成功实现降本增利，而对自动驾驶时代的畅想也不切实际，“特斯拉的投资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688056\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>一个特斯拉空头的认知：价格战没有奏效、自动驾驶依然遥远、马斯克的大饼画不圆</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一个特斯拉空头的认知：价格战没有奏效、自动驾驶依然遥远、马斯克的大饼画不圆\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-05 19:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688056><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“特斯拉的投资故事与高预期和低概率挂钩”。特斯拉空头认为，特斯拉错误预期了降价带来的影响，甚至不可能在自动驾驶技术方面处于领先地位。5月5日周五，Albert Bridge 资本公司创始人和首席投资官 Andrew Dickson 在发表在媒体的专栏文章中表示，他正在做空特斯拉。他认为，特斯拉给自己定下的目标或许过于远大，价格战并未成功实现降本增利，而对自动驾驶时代的畅想也不切实际，“特斯拉的投资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688056\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSLA","symbol_name":"特斯拉","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688056","article_id":"1111267834","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb81a3884b93d8c4fb280d4c4c40c7ea"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688056","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111267834","pubTimestamp":1683284465,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"“特斯拉的投资故事与高预期和低概率挂钩”。特斯拉空头认为，特斯拉错误预期了降价带来的影响，甚至不可能在自动驾驶技术方面处于领先地位。5月5日周五，Albert Bridge 资本公司创始人和首席投资官","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"translate_title":"Cognition of a Tesla bear: The price war has not worked, autonomous driving is still far away, and Musk's pie painting is not round","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9843a48287894fa2689a737e2b7f898b","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9},"content_text":"“特斯拉的投资故事与高预期和低概率挂钩”。特斯拉空头认为，特斯拉错误预期了降价带来的影响，甚至不可能在自动驾驶技术方面处于领先地位。5月5日周五，Albert Bridge 资本公司创始人和首席投资官 Andrew Dickson 在发表在媒体的专栏文章中表示，他正在做空特斯拉。他认为，特斯拉给自己定下的目标或许过于远大，价格战并未成功实现降本增利，而对自动驾驶时代的畅想也不切实际，“特斯拉的投资故事与高预期和低概率挂钩”。对于特斯拉今年以来接连降价的行动，Dickson 表示：对于部分投资者来说，这些降价表明，梅赛德斯-奔驰、大众或福特等传统制造商的竞争产品正变得越来越具吸引力，或者特斯拉产品的发展速度没有他们希望的那么快，又或者消费者对该品牌目前未更新车型的兴趣正在减弱。马斯克曾告诉投资者，即使是价格的微小变化也会对需求产生非常大的影响。但 Dickson 认为这一点很天真，他认为特斯拉不一定能因此售出全部产量，或者仅凭降低价格就能实现某种宏伟计划。并且，特斯拉的管理层并没有在投资者日提到新推出的车型，以及上述降价的影响和任何交付指标。Dickson 认为这并不是一个好消息，如果特斯拉真的看到了市场对降价的积极反应，其管理层应该向市场提供一些生产或交付指标来支持之前的说法。Dickson 指出：事实上，特斯拉并没有成功售出所生产的每一辆车。数据显示，尽管连续降价幅度达到了约10%至15%，但特斯拉的交付量仅连续增长6%。特斯拉在本季度实际上生产过剩，库存不断增加。隐含价格弹性远小于1.0，这表明价格变化对需求的影响很小。数据还显示，特斯拉的毛利率甚至收入都不太理想。特斯拉未能通过规模效应或降低投入成本来降低成本，因此第一季度汽车毛利率为18.3%，低于去年同期的29.7%。而就在一个月前，管理层还提出了“至少20%”的预期。Dickson 认为，对特斯拉从《通胀削减法案》（IRA）中获得的税收抵免来分析，该公司每辆车的利润可能从去年的约15000美元下降到了略高于7500美元。换句话说，这次的降价幅度为12.5%，但利润几乎减半。马斯克此前的言论暗示“全方位服务”的全自动驾驶汽车很快就会到来，但 Dickson 表示，虽然大多数人将在很长一段时间内驾驶自己的汽车，但要想真正实现全自动驾驶技术，可能需要联邦政府的授权。监管是减少意外情况的唯一方法，使L5级自动驾驶实际上能够以可接受的错误率运行。Dickson 的观点是：实现完全自动驾驶还需要几十年的时间，而且目前对“免费”自动驾驶软件的需求甚至低于特斯拉粉丝的预期，更不用说每月或每年花费数千美元的订阅需求了。特斯拉甚至不可能在自动驾驶技术方面处于领先地位。Dickson 很确定的一点是，虽然特斯拉在过去几年里在电动汽车销售方面取得了不错的进展，但目前电动汽车的需求仍是有限的。目前销售的所有汽车和轻型卡车中，约有85%至90%仍是燃油汽车，虽然未来它的比例会下降，政府可能会颁布法令强迫或鼓励人们购买电动汽车，但燃油车并不会被彻底替代。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":656973776,"gmtCreate":1683310113095,"gmtModify":1683310114646,"author":{"id":"3538458176058351","authorId":"3538458176058351","name":"Ruosong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d815eb794e0dfe4ac8a13f8e0d781888","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3538458176058351","authorIdStr":"3538458176058351"},"htmlText":"特斯拉降价难道不是因为北京商报吗[可爱]&nbsp;","listText":"特斯拉降价难道不是因为北京商报吗[可爱]&nbsp;","text":"特斯拉降价难道不是因为北京商报吗[可爱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656973776","repostId":1111267834,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656941450,"gmtCreate":1683298701870,"gmtModify":1683298704351,"author":{"id":"3475143061422691","authorId":"3475143061422691","name":"冯榕","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3475143061422691","authorIdStr":"3475143061422691"},"htmlText":"特斯拉的空头从来没有胜过，他没资格说","listText":"特斯拉的空头从来没有胜过，他没资格说","text":"特斯拉的空头从来没有胜过，他没资格说","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656941450","repostId":1111267834,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656954160,"gmtCreate":1683296187650,"gmtModify":1683296189989,"author":{"id":"3568881705284127","authorId":"3568881705284127","name":"MMSimona","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84863575ef7ab84a3f4f2460f5f82f91","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568881705284127","authorIdStr":"3568881705284127"},"htmlText":"我特斯拉等了快半年还没拿到车，难道生产出来放着不发货？&nbsp; 他说特斯拉没有成功出售每一辆车，或许是对的，不能做到每一辆车，但是大多数的车肯定是卖出去了吧","listText":"我特斯拉等了快半年还没拿到车，难道生产出来放着不发货？&nbsp; 他说特斯拉没有成功出售每一辆车，或许是对的，不能做到每一辆车，但是大多数的车肯定是卖出去了吧","text":"我特斯拉等了快半年还没拿到车，难道生产出来放着不发货？ 他说特斯拉没有成功出售每一辆车，或许是对的，不能做到每一辆车，但是大多数的车肯定是卖出去了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656954160","repostId":1111267834,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656959319,"gmtCreate":1683293525431,"gmtModify":1683293527679,"author":{"id":"3525842395103999","authorId":"3525842395103999","name":"彝家阿黑哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6cc6b3ae782876f9a394aed9d99d2311","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3525842395103999","authorIdStr":"3525842395103999"},"htmlText":"特斯拉在电车上依然难于撖动","listText":"特斯拉在电车上依然难于撖动","text":"特斯拉在电车上依然难于撖动","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656959319","repostId":1111267834,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656962654,"gmtCreate":1683285195378,"gmtModify":1683285479898,"author":{"id":"4141649307925402","authorId":"4141649307925402","name":"GUMAYISTA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4141649307925402","authorIdStr":"4141649307925402"},"htmlText":"在增程，混动上，特斯拉毫无竞争力","listText":"在增程，混动上，特斯拉毫无竞争力","text":"在增程，混动上，特斯拉毫无竞争力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656962654","repostId":1111267834,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":656962111,"gmtCreate":1683285124633,"gmtModify":1683285473197,"author":{"id":"4141649307925402","authorId":"4141649307925402","name":"GUMAYISTA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4141649307925402","authorIdStr":"4141649307925402"},"htmlText":"特斯拉不改变产品品牌力，撑5年都是马斯克牛逼了","listText":"特斯拉不改变产品品牌力，撑5年都是马斯克牛逼了","text":"特斯拉不改变产品品牌力，撑5年都是马斯克牛逼了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656962111","repostId":1111267834,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7972592,"gmtCreate":1683291220174,"gmtModify":1683293466320,"authorId":3544518779726666,"author":{"id":3544518779726666,"idStr":"3544518779726666","authorId":3544518779726666,"name":"里二外三","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":656962111,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"火箭都能刹住车，马上火星都旅游了，难道造拖拉机的能超越做火箭的。无知者无畏！","text":"火箭都能刹住车，马上火星都旅游了，难道造拖拉机的能超越做火箭的。无知者无畏！","html":"火箭都能刹住车，马上火星都旅游了，难道造拖拉机的能超越做火箭的。无知者无畏！"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":10,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":8,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1111267834"}