叁陆玖的个人主页 - 老虎社区

叁陆玖

叁陆玖

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IP属地：安徽

128关注

1粉丝

2主题

0勋章

01-27 20:34

哈哈哈哈太坏了这帮人

01-26 22:16

[强] 挺详细

存储芯片，最大黑马

01-20

Replying to @没有人比我更懂韭菜:怎么理解这里的大宗商品//@没有人比我更懂韭菜:闪迪的周期性极强...他卖的是大宗商品

01-20

问题不大科技巨头摆在那里可以买

01-16

写的挺客观也有自己见解 [强]

01-13

问题不大吧他这还没起来呢

@葛蓝碧高:$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 留得青山在，不怕没柴烧。美股有可能要跌了。

01-13

真猛啊我看的时候400多点还等着他往下落点呢好家伙

卡特彼勒创新高，此前宣布与英伟达扩大合作，通过AI推动创新发展

01-08

96给老子套住了[捂脸]

【券商聚焦】华源证券维持毛戈平(01318)“买入”评级指公司未来业绩增长确定性较高

2025-12-10

收购tk？不是不卖嘛之前可转债狠跌了一波

2025-11-24

财报出了估计会跳水一波

2025-11-24

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 也不至于就此一文不值

2025-11-24

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 也不至于就此一文不值

2025-11-10

$Direxion Daily MU Bull 2X Shares(MUU)$ 真的服了次次新高吓人巴拉的也不知道为啥涨这么凶

2025-11-09

$T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU)$ 已经麻了每次买了就跌太离谱了跌到1开头了昨晚

2025-10-27

$T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF(MSTU)$ 还没开盘突然的和好前段时间才3.5卖了麻了一卖就涨是吧 🐶东西

2025-10-25

苹果啥时候30多呀？ [捂脸]

2025-10-22

这玩意为啥这么疯涨啊

2025-10-21

达子现在也不行啊

2025-10-20

$百胜中国(09987)$ 搞来搞去没啥动静没意思撤了

2025-10-13

$Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ 特特你怎么了特特你说句话啊

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","htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;挺详细","listText":"[强]&nbsp;&nbsp;挺详细","text":"[强] 挺详细","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525975634654448","repostId":"2606935522","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606935522","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1769399634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606935522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-26 11:53","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"存储芯片，最大黑马","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606935522","media":"格隆汇","summary":"从追赶者到竞争者","content":"<p><strong>2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。</strong></p><p>这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。</p><p>更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。</p><p>这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。</p><h3 id=\"id_2899542882\">HMC的失利</h3><p>要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。</p><p>那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。</p><p>这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。</p><p>更致命的是时机判断。2013年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。</p><p>美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。</p><p>但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。</p><p>2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。</p><h3 id=\"id_3810015875\">HBM3E的转折</h3><p>真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。</p><p>前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。</p><p>2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。</p><p>这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。</p><p>2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。</p><p>但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。</p><p>更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。</p><h3 id=\"id_2205011960\">从卖内存到参与系统架构</h3><p>如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。</p><p>SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、OpenAI 以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。</p><p>在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a> 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。</p><p>与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。</p><p>这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。</p><h3 id=\"id_3085658045\">制程、产能与业务收缩</h3><p>技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。</p><p>在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。</p><p>在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。</p><p>与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。</p><p>从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。</p><p>与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。</p><h3 id=\"id_952301051\">从追赶者到竞争者</h3><p>随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。</p><p>目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。</p><p>多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。</p><p>不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。</p><p>为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。</p><p>与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。</p><p>综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。</p><p>但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 竞争中的上限。</p><h3 id=\"id_2042127808\">巅峰还是新起点？</h3><p>我们回到最初的问题：美光是否重返巅峰？</p><p>如果将“巅峰”定义为市场份额第一、技术绝对领先，那么答案显然是否定的。SK海力士和三星在HBM领域的先发优势、客户绑定深度以及产能规模，仍然是美光短期内难以逾越的壁垒。美光2025财年的财务表现虽然亮眼，但这更多是AI热潮下整个存储行业的红利，而非美光单独的结构性优势。</p><p>但如果将“巅峰”理解为重新确立关键竞争者的位置、建立可持续的技术与市场竞争力，那么美光确实正在经历一次深刻的战略重生。从HMC的惨痛失败到HBM3E的成功突围，从被动追随到主动参与系统架构设计，从泛化的产品组合到激进的业务聚焦，美光在过去五年完成的不仅是技术补课，更是对自身在AI时代存储产业中角色的重新定义。</p><p>美光当前的位置，或许更像是一个新的起点，而非传统意义上的巅峰回归。它已经证明了自己有能力在技术路线失误后实现战略校准，有决心通过激进的资源腾挪聚焦核心赛道，有实力在HBM等关键领域重新获得竞争资格。但要真正站上行业之巅，美光还需要在技术持续迭代、生态话语权构建、产能规模化扩张等维度，完成更长期的积累。</p><p>巅峰或许还很遥远，但至少，美光已经重新回到了通往巅峰的道路上。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储芯片，最大黑马\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 11:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4770a-60786256-b4e4-4139-badf-815fb3f4826c.jpg?guru_height=3866&guru_width=5791&guru_size=2465656","relate_stocks":{"LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 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(SGDHDG) ACC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2606935522","content_text":"2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与三星：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。HMC的失利要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。更致命的是时机判断。2013年AMD和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和英特尔定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。HBM3E的转折真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。从卖内存到参与系统架构如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、谷歌、OpenAI 以及亚马逊 AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 Arm 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。制程、产能与业务收缩技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。从追赶者到竞争者随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；三星电子则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 竞争中的上限。巅峰还是新起点？我们回到最初的问题：美光是否重返巅峰？如果将“巅峰”定义为市场份额第一、技术绝对领先，那么答案显然是否定的。SK海力士和三星在HBM领域的先发优势、客户绑定深度以及产能规模，仍然是美光短期内难以逾越的壁垒。美光2025财年的财务表现虽然亮眼，但这更多是AI热潮下整个存储行业的红利，而非美光单独的结构性优势。但如果将“巅峰”理解为重新确立关键竞争者的位置、建立可持续的技术与市场竞争力，那么美光确实正在经历一次深刻的战略重生。从HMC的惨痛失败到HBM3E的成功突围，从被动追随到主动参与系统架构设计，从泛化的产品组合到激进的业务聚焦，美光在过去五年完成的不仅是技术补课，更是对自身在AI时代存储产业中角色的重新定义。美光当前的位置，或许更像是一个新的起点，而非传统意义上的巅峰回归。它已经证明了自己有能力在技术路线失误后实现战略校准，有决心通过激进的资源腾挪聚焦核心赛道，有实力在HBM等关键领域重新获得竞争资格。但要真正站上行业之巅，美光还需要在技术持续迭代、生态话语权构建、产能规模化扩张等维度，完成更长期的积累。巅峰或许还很遥远，但至少，美光已经重新回到了通往巅峰的道路上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDY":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"SNDK":2,"NVDX":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"MUU":2,"07747":2,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"SSNLF":2,"07709":2,"NVD":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"09347":2,"STX":2,"MUD":0.6,"SMSD.UK":2,"WDC":2,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"MU":1.97,"NVDS":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVII":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":523849486172904,"gmtCreate":1768919540249,"gmtModify":1768919545128,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Replying 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14:16","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"【券商聚焦】华源证券维持毛戈平(01318)“买入”评级 指公司未来业绩增长确定性较高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601935851","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors签订战略合作框架协议。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002787\">华源</a>证券发研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors(路威凯腾)签订战略合作框架协议。根据协议，双方在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构进一步优化、人才引进与治理方面达成战略合作意向。路威凯腾将利用其全球化投资布局与战略伙伴网络，协助并赋能集团旗下品牌拓展海外高端零售渠道；双方拟共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权投资基金；同时在资本结构优化、人才引进与治理方面进行合作。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。机构全面布局消费领域全行业优质标的，并具备覆盖企业全生命周期的多元投资能力，单笔投资规模可覆盖500万至50亿美元。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。基于公司线上及线下渠道靓丽销售表现，该机构预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.1/15.8/20.3亿元，同比增长38%/30%/28%。公司作为国内高端彩妆品牌，创始人IP深度赋能品牌，护肤&amp;彩妆品类稳步增长，线下&amp;线上优势显著，当前品牌势能处于稳步向上阶段，大单品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>仍在高速增长，该机构看好公司的IP品牌价值稀缺＋渠道禀赋＋后续成长潜能，未来业绩增长确定性较高，维持“买入”评级。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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class=\"h-time\">2026-01-08 14:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002787\">华源</a>证券发研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors(路威凯腾)签订战略合作框架协议。根据协议，双方在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构进一步优化、人才引进与治理方面达成战略合作意向。路威凯腾将利用其全球化投资布局与战略伙伴网络，协助并赋能集团旗下品牌拓展海外高端零售渠道；双方拟共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权投资基金；同时在资本结构优化、人才引进与治理方面进行合作。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。机构全面布局消费领域全行业优质标的，并具备覆盖企业全生命周期的多元投资能力，单笔投资规模可覆盖500万至50亿美元。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。基于公司线上及线下渠道靓丽销售表现，该机构预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.1/15.8/20.3亿元，同比增长38%/30%/28%。公司作为国内高端彩妆品牌，创始人IP深度赋能品牌，护肤&amp;彩妆品类稳步增长，线下&amp;线上优势显著，当前品牌势能处于稳步向上阶段，大单品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>仍在高速增长，该机构看好公司的IP品牌价值稀缺＋渠道禀赋＋后续成长潜能，未来业绩增长确定性较高，维持“买入”评级。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20250109/MjJmNDVlM2IxNTc1MzAyMDFjYTFhODQyNzEzMTQ0NzU5OA==.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","01318":"毛戈平"},"source_url":"1972856","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2601935851","content_text":"金吾财讯 | 华源证券发研报指，毛戈平(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia 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挺详细","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/525975634654448","repostId":"2606935522","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606935522","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1769399634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606935522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-26 11:53","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"存储芯片，最大黑马","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606935522","media":"格隆汇","summary":"从追赶者到竞争者","content":"<p><strong>2025年，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。</strong></p><p>这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。</p><p>更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。</p><p>这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。</p><h3 id=\"id_2899542882\">HMC的失利</h3><p>要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。</p><p>那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。</p><p>这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。</p><p>更致命的是时机判断。2013年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。</p><p>美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。</p><p>但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。</p><p>2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。</p><h3 id=\"id_3810015875\">HBM3E的转折</h3><p>真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。</p><p>前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。</p><p>2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。</p><p>这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。</p><p>2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。</p><p>但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。</p><p>更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。</p><h3 id=\"id_2205011960\">从卖内存到参与系统架构</h3><p>如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。</p><p>SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、OpenAI 以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a> AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。</p><p>在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a> 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。</p><p>与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。</p><p>这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。</p><h3 id=\"id_3085658045\">制程、产能与业务收缩</h3><p>技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。</p><p>在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。</p><p>在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。</p><p>与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。</p><p>从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。</p><p>与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。</p><h3 id=\"id_952301051\">从追赶者到竞争者</h3><p>随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。</p><p>目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。</p><p>多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。</p><p>不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。</p><p>为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。</p><p>与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。</p><p>综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。</p><p>但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 竞争中的上限。</p><h3 id=\"id_2042127808\">巅峰还是新起点？</h3><p>我们回到最初的问题：美光是否重返巅峰？</p><p>如果将“巅峰”定义为市场份额第一、技术绝对领先，那么答案显然是否定的。SK海力士和三星在HBM领域的先发优势、客户绑定深度以及产能规模，仍然是美光短期内难以逾越的壁垒。美光2025财年的财务表现虽然亮眼，但这更多是AI热潮下整个存储行业的红利，而非美光单独的结构性优势。</p><p>但如果将“巅峰”理解为重新确立关键竞争者的位置、建立可持续的技术与市场竞争力，那么美光确实正在经历一次深刻的战略重生。从HMC的惨痛失败到HBM3E的成功突围，从被动追随到主动参与系统架构设计，从泛化的产品组合到激进的业务聚焦，美光在过去五年完成的不仅是技术补课，更是对自身在AI时代存储产业中角色的重新定义。</p><p>美光当前的位置，或许更像是一个新的起点，而非传统意义上的巅峰回归。它已经证明了自己有能力在技术路线失误后实现战略校准，有决心通过激进的资源腾挪聚焦核心赛道，有实力在HBM等关键领域重新获得竞争资格。但要真正站上行业之巅，美光还需要在技术持续迭代、生态话语权构建、产能规模化扩张等维度，完成更长期的积累。</p><p>巅峰或许还很遥远，但至少，美光已经重新回到了通往巅峰的道路上。</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n存储芯片，最大黑马\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-26 11:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img3.gelonghui.com/4770a-60786256-b4e4-4139-badf-815fb3f4826c.jpg?guru_height=3866&guru_width=5791&guru_size=2465656","relate_stocks":{"LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2023251221.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (USD) INC","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","LU2896262040.SGD":"JPM US GROWTH FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0861579265.USD":"联博低波幅策略股票基金A","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 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(SGDHDG) ACC","LU0823434583.USD":"BNP PARIBAS US GROWTH \"C\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/3671515","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2606935522","content_text":"2025年，美光成为了半导体行业关注度最高的公司之一。他们也成为存储芯片市场最大黑马。这家曾在 HBM 赛道上明显落后的存储厂商，市值在数月内上涨超过 40%。2025 财年第四季度，美光实现净利润 32 亿美元，净利润率达到 28.3%，这是其自 2017—2019 年服务器内存景气周期以来的最佳表现。更具标志性的是，美光正式跻身英伟达 H200 GPU 的 HBM3E 内存供应链，其 HBM 业务早已进入高速增长通道。而时间拨回三年前，HBM 市场的主角仍是 SK 海力士与三星：两者在代际演进和客户绑定上持续推进，而美光的市场份额一度下滑至约 10%，在关键技术节点上落后竞争对手整整一代，存在感近乎消失。这场戏剧性的逆转背后，是一个关于误判、挣扎、转型与重新定位的故事。HMC的失利要理解美光在HBM早期的掉队，需要回到2011年那个充满雄心的起点。那一年，美光技术专家Thomas Pawlowski在Hot Chips上发布了HMC（混合内存立方体）技术方案，直指JEDEC标准制定机制的低效——“最低公分母”式的妥协导致DRAM带宽革新步履维艰。HMC采用全新的高速SERDES数据链路架构，第一代原型即实现160 GBps总吞吐量，能效比下一代DDR4高出约3倍。这是一次技术上颇为超前的尝试。美光试图绕开JEDEC的标准化流程，建立自己主导的HMCC联盟，用封闭生态取代开放标准。但问题在于，HMC的领先优势只有一到两年，而成本却高得惊人——即便美光从未公开具体价格，但业内共识是其远超同样昂贵的HBM。更致命的是时机判断。2013年AMD和海力士联合推出HBM时，这项技术迅速被纳入JEDEC标准体系，获得了GPU生态的全面支持。英伟达和AMD先后采用HBM作为显卡内存，而HMC除了少数天文学项目、超级计算机和英特尔定制版Xeon Phi协处理器外，几乎没有大规模商业化应用。美光在HMC上投入了整整七年。2018年8月，当公司正式宣布放弃HMC、转向HBM时，韩国双雄已经开始布局HBM2E，而美光甚至连第二代HBM都尚未量产。这场技术路线的豪赌，让美光在AI算力爆发前夜错失了关键窗口期。但HMC的失败并非单纯的技术选择错误。更深层的问题在于，美光对HBM战略地位的判断出现了根本性偏差——公司长期将其视为补充性高端产品，而非决定DRAM产业结构的关键变量。这种认知滞后，导致美光在先进封装协同、与GPU/加速器厂商的联合验证，以及定制化产品响应速度上全面落后。2020年3月，当美光的HBM2姗姗来迟时，市场格局已基本定型：SK海力士占据50%份额，三星占据40%，留给美光的只有10%的残羹冷炙。这不仅是市场份额的差距，更是在AI训练算力基础设施中话语权的缺失。HBM3E的转折真正的转折发生在HBM3E阶段，这次转折的标志不仅是产品本身，更是美光内部完成的一次明确战略校准。前期失利带来的痛苦反思，迫使美光重新定义HBM在公司战略中的位置——它不再是边缘产品，而是与制程节点、资本开支和客户结构强绑定的核心方向。这种认知转变带来的第一个决策，就是直接跳过HBM3代际，全力研发HBM3E。2023年9月，美光宣布推出HBM3 Gen2（即HBM3E），这是一次高风险的技术跨越。跳代开发意味着美光必须在更短时间内解决堆叠良率、功耗控制和带宽优化等一系列复杂问题，同时还要与英伟达等头部客户建立深度协同设计机制。这场豪赌的回报在2024年显现。美光成为英伟达H200 GPU的HBM3E供应商，这不仅是订单本身的价值，更意味着美光重新获得了进入AI训练核心生态的入场券。与此前HBM2时代被动等待客户验证不同，美光在HBM3E阶段显著加快了产品响应节奏，在功耗、带宽和堆叠可靠性上对标甚至局部超越主流方案。2025财年第四季度，美光HBM内存销售额接近20亿美元，环比增长17.7%，同比增长3.78倍。更重要的是，公司预计到2026财年第三季度，其HBM市场份额将达到约20%，与整体DRAM市场份额持平——这意味着美光正在将其在通用DRAM领域的竞争力复制到HBM赛道。但HBM3E的意义不止于此。这一代产品的成功，标志着美光在技术判断、客户协同和产能调配上形成了新的能力闭环。公司将常规DRAM产能转向1γ制程后，释放出1β制程产能专门生产HBM堆叠DRAM——这种精细化的产能管理，既保证了HBM良率的稳定性（采用相对成熟的制程技术），又避免了新制程低良率对高成本堆叠产品的致命打击。更值得关注的是美光在HBM4布局上的策略转变。与HBM3阶段的跳代不同，这次美光选择同时布局HBM4和后续的HBM4E产品，引脚速度提升至11 Gb/s，单堆叠总带宽达2.8 TB/s。首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra公开表示，这将是市面上速度最快的HBM4内存。而在HBM4E阶段，美光更进一步提供定制化基底裸片，支持内存子系统的部分计算功能——这宣告了美光正在学习SK海力士，加速向系统级能力渗透。从卖内存到参与系统架构如果说HBM3E是美光重返主赛道的敲门砖，那么SOCAMM（Socket Capable Advanced Memory Module）等新型内存形态的布局，则反映出了其在产品形态和参与方式上的变化。相较于传统标准化内存，美光正在更多介入面向 AI 模块与系统层级的内存方案设计。SOCAMM 并非单一器件层面的创新，而是一种面向 AI 服务器与 PC 的模块化内存标准。该方案基于 1c DRAM 制程，重点优化能效表现，其带宽水平低于 HBM，但在功耗和成本方面更具优势。当前，英伟达、谷歌、OpenAI 以及亚马逊 AWS 等公司正在开发集成大量通用 DRAM 的定制化 AI 加速器与计算平台。随着 AI 应用由训练向推理阶段扩展，对高能效、可规模部署的通用 DRAM 需求正在提升，SOCAMM 与这一技术方向具有较高匹配度。在具体合作层面，美光是英伟达 Grace CPU 的 LPDDR5 内存供应商，并预计将继续为下一代基于 Arm 架构的处理器平台提供板载内存支持。这类合作模式使美光能够在产品定义阶段参与系统设计，对内存形态、功耗预算和封装方式进行协同规划，而不再仅限于后期供货。与此同时，美光与客户之间的技术协作方式也在发生变化。在 HBM 早期阶段，内存厂商主要依据 GPU 或加速器厂商提出的规格进行产品开发；而在 SOCAMM、CXL 内存等新方向上，内存厂商与系统厂商更多采用联合定义的方式，共同确定接口形式、性能目标及应用场景。这种协作机制提升了内存在系统层级中的适配度。这种系统级协同能力的积累，也对美光在 HBM 领域形成支撑作用。当公司能够同时提供 HBM、LPDDR5、SOCAMM 等多种内存方案，并参与异构计算架构的整体设计时，其在技术沟通和产品组合上的灵活性随之提高。这一背景下，美光在 HBM3E 阶段获得主要 AI 客户的采用，更符合长期技术协作逐步深化的结果，而非单一产品节点的偶然突破。制程、产能与业务收缩技术路线的调整需要资源支撑，美光再推进技术的同时的，近两年也在通过制程、产能与资本配置，来为其 HBM 战略提供源源不断的“子弹”。在制程层面，美光持续推进 1γ 节点的研发与导入。该节点的应用有助于提升 DRAM 的能效和良率，并为后续 HBM4 及更高代际产品提供工艺基础。同时，美光将部分常规 DRAM 产能迁移至 1γ 制程，将 1β 制程产能更集中地用于 HBM 生产，通过区分不同制程节点的应用场景，实现对规模化产品与高复杂度堆叠产品的并行支持。在产能布局上，美光正进行跨区域的产能重组。公司在美国爱达荷州、纽约州，日本广岛，以及中国台湾等地推进晶圆厂的新建或扩建计划。其中，爱达荷 ID1 晶圆厂预计于 2027 年上半年投产，中国台湾 A5 工厂则侧重于 HBM 相关的后段堆叠能力。此外，近期美光宣布收购力积电位于中国台湾的晶圆厂资产，该举措使其在当地直接获得成熟的 300mm DRAM 制造能力，缩短了新增产能的爬坡周期，也降低了在 HBM 相关产品上对外部代工资源的依赖。资本支出方面，美光 2025 财年资本开支为 138 亿美元，2026 财年预计提升至约 180 亿美元，投入强度已接近晶圆代工厂水平。与此同时，美光对业务结构进行了系统性调整。自 2025 年起，公司陆续终止移动 NAND 产品开发、缩减消费级品牌业务，并逐步退出 DDR4 等成熟产品线，将研发和制造资源进一步集中于数据中心相关存储产品。这一调整反映出其对未来需求结构的判断，即数据中心将成为中长期内最具确定性的需求来源。从财务表现看，不同业务线之间的盈利能力差异明显。2025 年上半年，美光数据中心存储产品的毛利率约为 42%，而消费级存储产品毛利率约为 14%。在此背景下，美光对产线用途进行了重新分配，例如在博伊西晶圆厂将原本面向消费级产品的多条生产线改造为 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 产线，以支持与主要 AI 客户签订的长期供货协议。与三星和 SK 海力士相比，美光在业务聚焦上的力度更为集中。前两者仍保留一定规模的消费级存储业务，以平衡周期波动；而美光则选择进一步收缩低利润领域，将资本开支与工程资源集中于 HBM 和数据中心 DRAM。这种策略在一定程度上提高了对单一市场景气度的敏感性，但在当前 AI 驱动的需求环境下，已对其营收结构和盈利能力产生了直接影响。从追赶者到竞争者随着 HBM 产业由 HBM3E 向 HBM4 过渡，美光的地位也在悄然发生变化。目前，SK 海力士仍以约 60% 的市场份额处于领先位置，其优势来自较早进入 HBM 量产阶段、较高的良率水平以及与英伟达等头部客户形成的稳定供货关系；三星电子则因在 1c DRAM 制程上的推进不及预期，HBM 市场份额自 2024 年以来明显下滑。在此过程中，美光的市场地位发生了显著变化，其 HBM 份额已由此前的个位数提升至约 20% 左右，成为当前 HBM 市场中增速最快的厂商之一。多家投行预计，2025 年 SK 海力士、三星和美光在 HBM 市场的份额结构将逐步稳定在约 5:2:2 的区间，美光份额有望达到 18%–21%。与 2022 年约 10% 的水平相比，其在高端存储市场中的存在感明显提升。美光也在财报中多次强调，HBM 已成为其数据中心业务中增长最快的产品线之一，并预计在 2025 财年贡献数十亿美元级别的收入。不过，与市场份额提升并行的，是产能约束带来的现实限制。当前，美光在 HBM 相关 TSV 工艺和晶圆加工能力上，仍明显落后于韩国厂商。公开数据显示，其月度 HBM 晶圆级产能约为 5–6 万片，而三星和 SK 海力士分别在 15–16 万片区间。这一差距意味着，美光即便在技术和客户认证层面取得突破，短期内也难以通过放量迅速改写整体市场结构。为解决这一瓶颈，美光正在对产能结构进行系统性调整。一方面，公司加快在日本广岛推进新一代 HBM 晶圆厂建设，计划在 2026 年前后形成新增产能；另一方面，现有 DRAM 产线正逐步向 HBM 和数据中心用 DRAM 倾斜。按照规划，到 2026 年底，美光 HBM 相关产能有望提升至约 10 万片/月，新增产能增幅高于同期 DRAM 总体产能的增长幅度，显示出公司在资源配置上的明确取向。与 SK 海力士的稳定扩张路径相比，美光的节奏更具阶段性特征。前者通过成熟制程和长期供货协议锁定了 2026 年前后的需求可见性；三星则仍在 1c DRAM 良率、HBM4 客户认证之间进行调整。而美光的战略重心，已由“是否具备 HBM 能力”转向“如何在有限产能下提升高端产品占比，并为下一代产品预留扩张空间”。综合来看，美光已完成从 HBM 市场边缘参与者向有效竞争者的转变，其在 HBM3E 节点切入主流 AI 平台，标志着其技术路线和客户策略开始发挥实际效果。但在 HBM4 周期中，美光能否进一步提升份额，仍取决于三个关键变量：一是 HBM4 产品的量产进度和性能验证结果，二是新增产能的落地节奏，三是与头部 AI 客户在长期供货层面的持续绑定程度。这些因素，将共同决定其在下一阶段 HBM 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@没有人比我更懂韭菜:怎么理解这里的大宗商品//@没有人比我更懂韭菜:闪迪的周期性极强...他卖的是大宗商品","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/523849486172904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3479274778362153","authorId":"3479274778362153","name":"letgo09","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/picture110","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274778362153","idStr":"3479274778362153"},"content":"大宗商品看供需，闪迪周期性特明显","text":"大宗商品看供需，闪迪周期性特明显","html":"大宗商品看供需，闪迪周期性特明显"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":477943690645864,"gmtCreate":1757695113642,"gmtModify":1757695115746,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"36+ 但是可能不如crcl和blsh亮眼。","listText":"36+ 但是可能不如crcl和blsh亮眼。","text":"36+ 但是可能不如crcl和blsh亮眼。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477943690645864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":488281459712840,"gmtCreate":1760236546557,"gmtModify":1760240113878,"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"建国同志 炒股自筹活动经费&nbsp;重创美元公信力 也为国内群众制造进场时机 不愧为饱经考验的资本主义战士","listText":"建国同志 炒股自筹活动经费&nbsp;重创美元公信力 也为国内群众制造进场时机 不愧为饱经考验的资本主义战士","text":"建国同志 炒股自筹活动经费 重创美元公信力 也为国内群众制造进场时机 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自己的16都没了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481217284321392","repostId":"1194828945","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194828945","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1758502010,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194828945?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-22 08:46","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"雷军9月25日晚7点将举办第6次年度演讲！小米17系列同日发布","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194828945","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"9月22日，$小米(XIACY)$集团董事长雷军：9月25日晚7点，我将举办第6次年度演讲，主题是《改变》。聊聊$小米(01810)$玄戒芯片和$小米(81810)$汽车背后的故事。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月22日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>集团董事长雷军：9月25日晚7点，我将举办第6次年度演讲，主题是《改变》。聊聊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>玄戒芯片和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>汽车背后的故事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40e34f11037042736586496da7e03d0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"470\"/></p><p><strong>雷军：小米17系列9月25日晚7点发布</strong></p><p>雷军：小米17系列，三款登场，每款都惊艳： 小米17是小米史上最强标准版旗舰，小米17Pro是最精湛的小尺寸科技影像旗舰。小米17ProMax是小米史上最强科技影像旗舰，搭载全新小米澎湃 OS3。9月25日晚7点发布。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b28c0f62f1e51ec4e3cbe168444388c\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"594\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>雷军9月25日晚7点将举办第6次年度演讲！小米17系列同日发布</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>集团董事长雷军：9月25日晚7点，我将举办第6次年度演讲，主题是《改变》。聊聊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米</a>玄戒芯片和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>汽车背后的故事。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c40e34f11037042736586496da7e03d0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"470\"/></p><p><strong>雷军：小米17系列9月25日晚7点发布</strong></p><p>雷军：小米17系列，三款登场，每款都惊艳： 小米17是小米史上最强标准版旗舰，小米17Pro是最精湛的小尺寸科技影像旗舰。小米17ProMax是小米史上最强科技影像旗舰，搭载全新小米澎湃 OS3。9月25日晚7点发布。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b28c0f62f1e51ec4e3cbe168444388c\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"594\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86eaa8565a3430191eb6cda01c42ee72","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","01810":"小米集团-W","XIACY":"小米集团ADR"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194828945","content_text":"9月22日，小米集团董事长雷军：9月25日晚7点，我将举办第6次年度演讲，主题是《改变》。聊聊小米玄戒芯片和小米汽车背后的故事。雷军：小米17系列9月25日晚7点发布雷军：小米17系列，三款登场，每款都惊艳： 小米17是小米史上最强标准版旗舰，小米17Pro是最精湛的小尺寸科技影像旗舰。小米17ProMax是小米史上最强科技影像旗舰，搭载全新小米澎湃 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tg-height=\"240\"></p><p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c118f447ec0f1f0ce6060cc2e85ac6a4","relate_stocks":{"CAT":"卡特彼勒"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147962694","content_text":"周二，卡特彼勒 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14:16","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"【券商聚焦】华源证券维持毛戈平(01318)“买入”评级 指公司未来业绩增长确定性较高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601935851","media":"金吾财讯","summary":"公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors签订战略合作框架协议。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。","content":"<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002787\">华源</a>证券发研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors(路威凯腾)签订战略合作框架协议。根据协议，双方在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构进一步优化、人才引进与治理方面达成战略合作意向。路威凯腾将利用其全球化投资布局与战略伙伴网络，协助并赋能集团旗下品牌拓展海外高端零售渠道；双方拟共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权投资基金；同时在资本结构优化、人才引进与治理方面进行合作。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。机构全面布局消费领域全行业优质标的，并具备覆盖企业全生命周期的多元投资能力，单笔投资规模可覆盖500万至50亿美元。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。基于公司线上及线下渠道靓丽销售表现，该机构预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.1/15.8/20.3亿元，同比增长38%/30%/28%。公司作为国内高端彩妆品牌，创始人IP深度赋能品牌，护肤&amp;彩妆品类稳步增长，线下&amp;线上优势显著，当前品牌势能处于稳步向上阶段，大单品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>仍在高速增长，该机构看好公司的IP品牌价值稀缺＋渠道禀赋＋后续成长潜能，未来业绩增长确定性较高，维持“买入”评级。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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class=\"h-time\">2026-01-08 14:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>金吾财讯 | <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002787\">华源</a>证券发研报指，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia Advisors(路威凯腾)签订战略合作框架协议。根据协议，双方在全球市场扩张、收购及战略投资、资本结构进一步优化、人才引进与治理方面达成战略合作意向。路威凯腾将利用其全球化投资布局与战略伙伴网络，协助并赋能集团旗下品牌拓展海外高端零售渠道；双方拟共同组建专注于全球高端美妆领域的股权投资基金；同时在资本结构优化、人才引进与治理方面进行合作。路威凯腾为全球领先的消费投资机构，通过私募股权、信贷及房地产三大多元产品平台管理约390亿美元股权资本。机构全面布局消费领域全行业优质标的，并具备覆盖企业全生命周期的多元投资能力，单笔投资规模可覆盖500万至50亿美元。依托于全球消费行业内深厚的行业洞察力、卓越的运营管理能力及广泛的战略资源网络，路威凯腾在全球18个办公室部署200余名投资与运营专家，与管理团队深度协作，持续为投资组合创造差异化价值。自1989年成立以来，路威凯腾已在全球累计投资超过300个全球知名消费品牌。基于公司线上及线下渠道靓丽销售表现，该机构预计公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为12.1/15.8/20.3亿元，同比增长38%/30%/28%。公司作为国内高端彩妆品牌，创始人IP深度赋能品牌，护肤&amp;彩妆品类稳步增长，线下&amp;线上优势显著，当前品牌势能处于稳步向上阶段，大单品<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301365\">矩阵</a>仍在高速增长，该机构看好公司的IP品牌价值稀缺＋渠道禀赋＋后续成长潜能，未来业绩增长确定性较高，维持“买入”评级。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.szfiu.com/news/20250109/MjJmNDVlM2IxNTc1MzAyMDFjYTFhODQyNzEzMTQ0NzU5OA==.jpg","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","01318":"毛戈平"},"source_url":"1972856","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2601935851","content_text":"金吾财讯 | 华源证券发研报指，毛戈平(01318)控股股东及执行董事毛戈平先生、汪立群女士、执行董事毛霓萍女士、毛慧萍女士、汪立华先生及宋虹佺女士拟在6个月内，主要通过大宗交易方式合计减持不超过公司已发行股份总数的3.51%。减持所得款项用途包括但不限于美妆相关产业链的投资、改善个人生活等。公司控股股东及董事对公司发展充满信心，将持续致力于集团的产品研发及生产经营管理，努力为集团品牌价值提升及业绩增长作出卓越贡献。此外公司通过大宗方式减持，影响或较为温和。公司近期与L Catterton Asia 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