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仓右嘉措
56000+46000=102000
IP属地:北京
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仓右嘉措
08-28
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
206买入,蚊子腿NO64
仓右嘉措
08-15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
214卖出,蚊子腿NO63
仓右嘉措
08-14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
蚊子腿NO62
仓右嘉措
08-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
182进,202出,蚊子腿61,今天真快。
仓右嘉措
08-02
对,只要老马活着,特斯拉我一定重仓。
仓右嘉措
07-29
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
229卖出,蚊子腿NO60
仓右嘉措
07-15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
259.7卖出,蚊子腿NO59
仓右嘉措
07-10
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
262卖出,蚊子腿NO58。
仓右嘉措
07-05
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
252卖出,蚊子腿NO57。
仓右嘉措
07-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
242卖出,蚊子腿NO56
仓右嘉措
07-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
229卖出,蚊子腿NO55。
仓右嘉措
07-01
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
蚊子腿NO54。
仓右嘉措
06-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
先落袋一笔,蚊子腿NO53。
仓右嘉措
04-29
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
191和193卖出两笔,蚊子腿51和52。
仓右嘉措
02-28
只看标题,就很不要脸。华为算个啥哦。
谁能替代英伟达?
仓右嘉措
02-15
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
194卖出,蚊子腿NO50。
仓右嘉措
02-09
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
193卖出,蚊子腿NO49。
仓右嘉措
02-01
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
193.39,卖在山顶,美滋滋。 蚊子腿NO48。
仓右嘉措
01-30
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
195卖出,蚊子大腿NO47。
仓右嘉措
01-29
老乡别走
外围突传大利好!看涨期权交易骤增,中国资产大反攻继续?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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蚊子腿NO62","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93c1f10cc8e5a8fa6ce87fa7239418e6","width":"1172","height":"890"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338147522306264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4143193164711522","authorId":"4143193164711522","authorIdStr":"4143193164711522","name":"jhdxr","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4143193164711522"},"content":"哇你开始操作期权了","text":"哇你开始操作期权了","html":"哇你开始操作期权了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335240088125520,"gmtCreate":1722877817348,"gmtModify":1722877820905,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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182进,202出,蚊子腿61,今天真快。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f1d769b7a87ce77cb32a4330bcf1aaf","width":"1108","height":"530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335240088125520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3522542027132464","authorId":"3522542027132464","authorIdStr":"3522542027132464","name":"夏天的绿叶","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55a2e193829a560b25158d656e733ee2","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3522542027132464"},"content":"咋不多买点,可惜了这次行情!","text":"咋不多买点,可惜了这次行情!","html":"咋不多买点,可惜了这次行情!"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334089590730992,"gmtCreate":1722597919447,"gmtModify":1722603923493,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"对,只要老马活着,特斯拉我一定重仓。","listText":"对,只要老马活着,特斯拉我一定重仓。","text":"对,只要老马活着,特斯拉我一定重仓。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334089590730992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":332738973425912,"gmtCreate":1722261082553,"gmtModify":1722328802225,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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229卖出,蚊子腿NO60","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80df80041c66feec4834f7e8755a8e9b","width":"1172","height":"449"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/332738973425912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b039bdf3bf616be9af954d0deaa41b92","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4185274725122682"},"content":"赞一个,不过按照这个佣金和平台费,估计成本也不低吧","text":"赞一个,不过按照这个佣金和平台费,估计成本也不低吧","html":"赞一个,不过按照这个佣金和平台费,估计成本也不低吧"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327726731808824,"gmtCreate":1721043397550,"gmtModify":1721043401188,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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242卖出,蚊子腿NO56","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 242卖出,蚊子腿NO56","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43f6f66f351dc1fc3404ccb13ea01f1b","width":"1172","height":"462"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323572270456920","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":240,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323286438613056,"gmtCreate":1719936469729,"gmtModify":1719936474776,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 229卖出,蚊子腿NO55。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 229卖出,蚊子腿NO55。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 229卖出,蚊子腿NO55。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0023b3e6603a29cf3c010498552155","width":"1172","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323286438613056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":322921274929464,"gmtCreate":1719847209636,"gmtModify":1719847212473,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 蚊子腿NO54。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 蚊子腿NO54。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 蚊子腿NO54。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/693590a0ebeabe26f2b8c35a94c3e788","width":"1172","height":"286"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/322921274929464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321049003716800,"gmtCreate":1719411234207,"gmtModify":1719411236238,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 先落袋一笔,蚊子腿NO53。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 先落袋一笔,蚊子腿NO53。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 先落袋一笔,蚊子腿NO53。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1acd40c7550a907fa01e6d4cfca0b5ec","width":"1172","height":"462"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321049003716800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","authorIdStr":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人老马","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352144670446c0e317c0246cfb51b25d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4093596070918460"},"content":"很久没有看到你的蚊子腿了 [开心]","text":"很久没有看到你的蚊子腿了 [开心]","html":"很久没有看到你的蚊子腿了 [开心]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":300589210935400,"gmtCreate":1714405434346,"gmtModify":1714405438500,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>191和193卖出两笔,蚊子腿51和52。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>191和193卖出两笔,蚊子腿51和52。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 191和193卖出两笔,蚊子腿51和52。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7028aef696f4a2d4de5bddea4dbbe9c9","width":"1172","height":"827"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/300589210935400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":278727157625032,"gmtCreate":1709058417147,"gmtModify":1709058861927,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只看标题,就很不要脸。华为算个啥哦。","listText":"只看标题,就很不要脸。华为算个啥哦。","text":"只看标题,就很不要脸。华为算个啥哦。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/278727157625032","repostId":"1122933530","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122933530","pubTimestamp":1709028341,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122933530?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-02-27 18:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谁能替代英伟达?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122933530","media":"产业象限","summary":"英伟达真的不可替代吗?","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>作者丨山茶</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 2月22日,英伟达发布2024财年四季报,营收221亿美元,同比增长265%,净利润123亿美元,同比激增769%,双双大超市场预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 然后,英伟达就杀疯了。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 一夜之间,英伟达市值暴涨2770亿美元,创下华尔街单日最大涨幅的历史记录。如今,英伟达的市值已经逼近2万亿美元。以国内生产总值计算,英伟达市值超过了大多数其他国家经济体的规模。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c5a0e52cdbf147c68e0abe93e716f59\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"579\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:福布斯</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 从企业层面看,这一市值也超越Meta,成为仅次于微软、苹果和沙特阿美的全球第四大市值的巨无霸。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但有意思的现象是,虽然已经跻身第一梯队,但无论是营收还是利润,英伟达都与微软、苹果、甚至被它超过的Meta差距较远。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 可以对比来看:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>微软2024财年Q2营收620.2亿美元,净利润218.7亿美元;</p></li><li><p>苹果2024财年Q1营收1195亿美元,净利润339.16亿美元;</p></li><li><p>Meta2023年Q4营收401亿美元,净利润140.17亿美元。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 《巴伦周刊》使用基于FactSet预测的2023年至2026年预期平均盈利增长,以及基于2024年预测的市盈率,对美股7大巨头企业的PEG比率(市盈率除以盈利增长率)也做了预测,英伟达是其中最低的。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4cca40d3a9fa164ca00e548916b6058\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"689\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:FactSet</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 毫无疑问,如今英伟达的市值存在巨大泡沫,但从国内到国外,投资者却都愿意为这样的泡沫买单。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 整个市场对英伟达充满信心,因为在某种程度上,市场已经将英伟达与AI时代的未来划上了等号。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 投资英伟达,就是投资属于未来的AI时代,在这样的逻辑下,英伟达似乎值得任何市值。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 那么,英伟达真的不可替代吗?谁又会成为英伟达的对手,谁又能将它赶下神坛?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong> 01</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong> 英伟达,凭什么遥遥领先?</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 和其它半导体企业相比,英伟达是“遥遥领先”的,起码在市值上如此。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 如今,在全球前十的半导体企业中,不算台积电和阿斯麦这样的纯代工厂和光刻机厂商,英伟达的市值约等于剩下七家市值的总和,甚至还有富余。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4d76826d44e6b625ad23b33d2554716\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:芯东西</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 撑起英伟达市值的,是其全球领先的AI计算芯片,包括A100、H100和即将上市的H200。根据富国银行的统计,英伟达目前在全球数据中心AI加速市场拥有98%的份额,处于绝对的统治地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 很多时候,这些芯片花钱也都很难买到。早在2023年8月的时候,就有媒体报道,英伟达的订单排到了2024年。其芯片的交付周期,也曾一度高达8~11个月(如今已经缩短为3~4个月)。马斯克曾为此吐槽,“英伟达的芯片比毒品还难搞到”。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 产能不足,供不应求,这些需求应该自然溢出到其他厂商。从供应链安全的角度考虑,面对如此集中的市场,企业似乎也不应该只选择英伟达这一家的产品。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但全球的企业排着队将订单送到英伟达手中,难道,除了英伟达的芯片之外,AMD、英特尔这些企业的芯片都办法训练大模型吗?</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 答案当然不是,但使用英伟达的芯片,目前仍然是训练和运行大模型的最优选择。这种优势体现在四个方面,包括硬件性能、软件生态、适用范围和整体性价比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 首先是硬件性能。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 以英伟达在2020年5月发布的NVIDIA A100 GPU为例,这款芯片采用7nm制程和NVIDIA Ampere架构,拥有540亿个晶体管和6912个CUDA核心,最高可以提供80GB的GPU显存,以及2TB/s的全球超快显存带宽。在大模型训练和推理常用的FP16(半精度浮点运算)Tensor Core峰值性能可以达到312TF,使用稀疏计算的情况下,可以达到624TF。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc579b9e96df9fd5909a5814f1217423\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"274\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:CSDN,NVIDIA GPU A100 Ampere(安培)架构深度解析</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 很多人对这些指标没什么概念,我们来简单解释一下。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 芯片的制程决定着同样大小的芯片能够放下的晶体管的数量,而晶体管的数量越多,芯片的计算能力越强,这也是5纳米的芯片一定比7纳米的芯片先进的原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 至于CUDA核心,即CUDA线程,是英伟达CUDA平台编程模型中的基本执行单元。我们都知道,GPU最强的能力是并行计算,而CUDA核心越多,意味着芯片能同时并行计算的数量也就越多,芯片的性能更强,完成同样任务的速度更快。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 需要注意的是,芯片的计算能力强和计算效率高是两个概念。制程和晶体管的数量代表着计算能力,而CUDA核心的数量,代表着计算效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 至于显存和带宽,则决定了GPU在运行时的效率。其中显存决定GPU同时能够存储的最大数据,而显存带宽,则决定显存和显卡之间的数据传输速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 举一个简单直白的例子,在一个流水线上,原材料需要从库房运送到车间进行装备,然后将成品再运回库房。显存决定了库房能够放多少原材料,而显存带宽,则决定每次从库房送原材料的速度。如果库房不够大,或者材料传输速度不够快,那车间的生产能力再强,也无法生产出成品。所以显存和带宽,其实决定芯片能够参与训练多大参数规模的大模型,以及训练大模型的速度。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 明白了这些基本概念,我们再用最有代表性的两家企业,进行对比。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 首先是AMD,目前主打的芯片是MI250X,发布于2021年年底,采用7nm工艺,拥有582亿个晶体管,显存128G,显存带宽3.2768 TB/s,FP16峰值性能为369 TF,只有60个计算单元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c631f033cdce9f6a3347fd962f92869\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"368\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:AMD官网,MI250X</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 其次是英特尔,目前主打芯片Ponte Vecchio,同样发布于2021年,采用7nm工艺,宣称晶体管数量达到1020亿,是全世界晶体管数量最多的芯片。这款芯片显存128GB,显存带宽3.2TB/s,FP16峰值性能184TF,计算单元102个。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daf6584a9a2581f675341ee9588d33a7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:英特尔 Hot Chips 演示的幻灯片,展示了 PVC 上的小芯片</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 我们会发现,即使从单纯的数据上看,英特尔和AMD也没有完全被英伟达甩开,甚至在某些领域,这两家的芯片还领先英伟达的A100。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但是这里有两个误区,第一个误区是,英特尔和AMD这两款芯片的发布时间比A100都要晚一年,他们真正对标的对手,其实应该是英伟达在2022年初发布的H100,而现在英伟达的芯片已经更新到H200了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a8fd05f5f63eecd29a0b65a3eb579fc\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:Semianalysis</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 第二个误区在于,硬件指标并不完全等于芯片的整体能力,软件生态是决定芯片性能和使用的第二个关键指标。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 这就像手机和操作系统一样,手机的硬件配置再好,没有一个好的操作系统,对于消费者来说仍然不是一款好的手机。而这里需要提到的,就包括英伟达的CUDA平台、NVLink和Tensor Core等软件生态。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 比如CUDA平台,我们前面提到的CUDA核心就是这个平台的产物,它可以提高芯片的并行计算能力;它可以通过编程,提高GPU的能效比,让同样的工作耗费更少的能源。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 此外,CUDA平台还支持广泛的应用程序,包括科学计算、深度学习、机器学习、图像处理、视频处理等等,它还允许技术人员通过C++等常用的编程语言来编写GPU代码。打一个不恰当的比方,这相当于中国人不用学习英文,直接使用中文指挥外国人做事情,帮助技术人员节省了巨大成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但目前市面上大多数程序员已经深度依赖CUDA平台和开发工具,就像我们使用微信许多年了,你的朋友、聊天记录、朋友圈都在这个微信上,即使现在出现一个更好用的社交软件,你也很难迁移。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> CUDA带来的生态壁垒也类似这个道理,其他平台虽然也有自己的软件生态,比如AMD有自己的GCN 架构,英特尔有Xe架构,甚至为开发者提供类似“一键换机”迁移功能,但都很难与英伟达竞争。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,这里面也有一些曲线救国的做法,比如以AMD为首,越来越多的芯片企业采用了“打不过就加入”的策略,选择将自己的芯片兼容到CUDA平台,早在2012年的时候,AMD就与Nvidia 达成了一项协议,允许AMD在其GCN架构GPU中使用 CUDA 技术,所以现在我们在AMD的芯片中,也会看到CUDA核心。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,对于英伟达来说,CUDA也只是护城河的一部分,其他的技术如NVLink也至关重要。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 作为大模型训练的GPU,没有哪家企业会单独使用一张GPU,每次都会使用至少几百张卡,甚至上万张卡一起建立计算集群。NVLink是一种链接技术,可以实现GPU之间的高速、低延迟的互联。如果没有这种技术,整个芯片算力的集群就无法实现1+1>3的效果,而且会增加GPU之间的通信延迟,执行任务的效率会降低,芯片的功耗会增加,最终增加整个系统的运行成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 大模型训练实际上是一个非常消耗能源的事情,国盛证券做过一个计算,假设每天约有1300万独立访客使用ChatGPT,那每天的电费就需要5万美元。而如果没有NVLink,这笔成本还会指数级上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 芯片某种程度上就像购车一样,购车只是第一次成本,之后的油费、保养、保险才是成本的大头。所以黄仁勋才说,“AI系统最重要的不是硬件组成的成本,而是训练和运用AI的费用。”</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 所以,虽然AMD、英特尔在某些芯片上把价格定得比英伟达更低,但是从长期成本来考虑,具有更优软件生态和协同、配套工具的英伟达芯片仍然是性价比最高的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,这里面还要考虑到使用场景的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 比如英伟达的大客户,主要是以Meta、微软、亚马逊、Google为代表的云计算平台。有媒体报道,头部云计算厂商在英伟达H100 GPU整体市场份额中的占比达到50%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbdf7dba458a181a201f58f9d763c484\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"548\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:Omida Research</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而云厂商采购芯片的逻辑,主要是构建算力集群,然后通过云服务平台将这些算力再卖出去。但这里就会存在一个问题,就是云厂商并不知道客户会拿这些算力来做些什么,比如有的企业会用来做机器学习,有企业需要大模型训练,也有企业需要做大模型推理。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 不同的需求,背后对应的算力配置也不尽相同,它需要底层的芯片能够支持多种编程模型,支持多种数据类型,有较好的可拓展性和良好的性能和功耗等等。而这些,恰恰是英伟达硬件能力加软件生态带来的优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 综合来看,无论是从硬件性能,还是软件生态;无论是从开发工具和部署工具,到长期使用的成本和可开发应用场景。对比同类竞争对手,英伟达都属于最有性价比,且遥遥领先的存在。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 这就是为什么明明需要排着长队、忍受长时间等待,大家却仍然执着于英伟达芯片的原因。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> <strong> 02</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong> 谁想替代英伟达?</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 难道英伟达真的不能被超越吗?当然也不是,在巨大的市场利益面前,从传统半导体巨头到初创企业,围剿英伟达的呼声从来就没有停止过。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 特别是最近几年,随着云计算和云端AI芯片的火爆,已经有无数的半导体公司说过,自家芯片已经在部分性能上超过了英伟达A100,就像今天也有无数大模型企业会说自己已经在某些方面超过OpenAI GPT-3.5一样。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 在最新披露年报中,英伟达是这样描述自己的竞争风险的。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 公司的竞争来源主要有两个,一个是 GPU、CPU、DPU、嵌入式SoC和其他加速AI计算处理器产品的公司,比如英特尔、AMD、高通、华为;另一个是提供基于InfiniBand(无线带宽技术)、以太网、光纤通道和专有技术的半导体高性能互连产品供应商,比如华为、思科、惠普这样的通信公司,以及亚马逊、微软、阿里、谷歌、华为这样的云服务公司等等。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 特别是第一次被英伟达列为对手且被反复提到的华为。从芯片硬件到软件,从云服务到通信解决方案,英伟达几乎将华为当做所有领域的竞争对手。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 奇怪的是,虽然在2023年8月,科大讯飞创始人刘庆峰就提到华为的GPU已经可以对标A100了,但其实从客观的性能、使用成本,软硬件生态工具,华为与英伟达之间仍然有着代际的差距。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 华为被如此重视,关键在于两点:</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 一是市场环境的问题,由于众所周知的原因,英伟达的高端芯片在国内的销路并不畅通,在全面国产替代的背景下,其针对中国的特供版芯片在中国的竞争力也在降低。在这样的背景下,华为拥有更多的成长空间,不必直接对标英伟达最先进的H200。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 另一个关键是华为的生态能力非常齐全,作为通信起家的企业,华为不仅拥有自己的芯片,服务器,还拥有自己的云计算平台和大模型。基本上,华为覆盖了AI这条产业链从头到尾的所有环节,对比英伟达拥有更大的潜力和可能。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 如今,华为的昇腾910B正在疯狂席卷中国市场,除了科大讯飞之外,国内多地的智算中心也都已经用上了华为的芯片。《财经》之前报道,华为昇腾系列产品目前处在供不应求状态,价格约只有英伟达A100的60%甚至可以更低。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 为了应对国内市场的变化,英伟达也在积极推出新的产品。2月初,有媒体报道,英伟达的新款国内专供芯片H20已经开始在接受经销商的预定。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/309b546944a748698d8228db3adbee1b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"308\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:NVIDIA 由H2O.ai和NVIDIA提供支持的融合AI生态系统</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而有趣的是,作为新产品,英伟达H20每张的定价换算成人民币仅在8.6万~11万左右,刚好略低于华为昇腾910B 12万元左右的价格。在英伟达承受中国市场压力的背景下,这被看做是一种防守策略。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 除了在国内有被黄仁勋亲自认证的竞争对手华为之外,海外市场英伟达其实也是群狼环伺。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 最虎视眈眈的自然是AMD。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 2023年6月,AMD发布了Instinct MI300,目标是对标英伟达H100,其晶体管数量达到1530亿,内存192GB、内存带宽5.3TB/s,分别是英伟达H100的大约2倍、2.4倍和1.6倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 软件上,AMD仍然延续兼容CUDA的策略,一方面通过迁移工具,翻译CUDA应用的策略吸引英伟达的开发者,另一方面开源自家的ROCm软件,提高企业和开发者的自主权。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 对于芯片算力这么基础的部分,没有企业希望英伟达成为自己的唯一供应商,所以在MI300推出之后,包括OpenAI、微软、Meta都纷纷表态将采购MI300。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 除了AMD,即使是已经在AI上落后的英特尔,也不甘心错过这场泼天富贵。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d28717f037880c92a52e4c07879af3f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> ▲图源:彭博社 英特尔公司首席执行官Patrick Gelsinger于2023年12月14日星期四在美国纽约举行的英特尔AI Everywhere发布会上发表讲话</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 英特尔最新的AI芯片Gaudi3将在2024年上市,这款芯片采用5nm工艺,最高配备128GB的内存。按英特尔的宣传,这款芯片的带宽是Gaudi 2(7nm工艺)的1.5倍,BF16功率是其4倍,网络算力是其2倍,并表示Gaudi3的性能将优于英伟达的H100。同时,美国政府也在对英特尔进行扶持,预计将向英特尔提供超过100亿美元的补贴。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 从战略上,与英伟达的优势在云端不同,英特尔的优势在与其广阔个人终端市场。所以英特尔其实将更大的赌注压在了个人终端的AI化上。英特尔CEO基辛格多次提到,要重构PC体验,并表达对未来AI PC市场的看好。英特尔希望依靠其CPU在个人PC上的优势,率先抢占这一市场,然后再通过消费市场反向促进云端市场的繁荣,打一波农村包围城市的战役。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 事实上,芯片的行业特点与软件、或者互联网的商业可以通过建立用户规模,或者生态就建立壁垒实现赢者通吃不同。作为高度技术密集型产业,芯片技术的代际变化非常大,只要存在技术迭代的机会,后来者就永远有弯道超车的可能。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 芯片不同于软件,或者互联网等其他业务模式,建立起一定的用户规模之后可以一直赢者通吃。只要存在技术迭代的机会,后来者就永远有弯道超车的可能。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而无论是AMD还是英特尔,亦或者华为,他们都有深厚的技术研发能力和充裕的资金,这些企业可能会在这个阶段暂时落后,但也谁无法笃定,这些企业不会出现一次技术涌现,或者抓住某个技术迭代的关键时期后来居上。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 从最新财报看,AMD 2023年Q4数据中心的销售额22.8亿美元,同比增长38%,表明市场已经在逐步接纳其AI芯片的使用。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 而除了AMD和英特尔这样的老牌玩家之外,这个市场上还有很多创业者在前赴后继。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 最近比较出名的如Groq,其针对大语言模型量身定制的LPU芯片每秒可以生成500个token,远超英伟达芯片的效率。当然,这个成绩仍然是在实验场景下的结果,最终工程化交付还有很长的距离,且这款芯片也还有许多技术问题有待解决。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 但这本质上代表,面对新的场景,如今的芯片的技术仍有创新空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 所以我们会看到,作为全球最具代表的AI企业,OpenAI也宣布了自己的造芯计划。其创始人CEO Altman前段时间不仅传出7万亿美元的募资芯片,在这之前更是已经投资了包括Cerebras、Rain Neuromorphics和Atomic Semi在内的至少三家芯片公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 远在日本的孙正义,在互联网时代已经功成名就的他也打算放过这次机会,刚刚从巨额的投资亏损中解套的他,立马就提出了募集1000亿美元以创立一家人工智能半导体芯片企业的计划。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 有媒体报道,在这次计划中,软银将出资300亿美元资金,另有700亿美元的资金可能来自中东地区的机构。而在2023年,软银集团曾以640亿美元的估值收购ARM公司25%股份,这也是孙正义投入芯片的底气之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,对于英伟达来说,更大或者更直接的危险还是来自其最大的客户——云厂商。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 面对巨大的算力需求,国内如百度、华为、阿里都相继推出了自己的AI芯片,在国外,包括微软、亚马逊、Google也同样在开发自己芯片。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 当然,这些芯片主要针对的是特定场景的计算需求,与英伟达面向通用场景的GPT仍然有不同。但这也代表,云计算厂商正在逐步减少对英伟达的依赖。而正如前面所提到的,这部分企业才是真正支撑英伟达业绩的主要客户。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 面对这些既定的,或者潜在的市场变化,英伟达自然也没闲着。据路透社报道,英伟达近期已与微软等主要云厂商联系,商讨为云厂商定制AI芯片的问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 同时,英伟达也在持续推出新的芯片,以期望不断拉开与后来者的距离。目前,英伟达已经公布了其下一代AI芯片B100的消息,设计性能要比H100快3倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"> 所以,虽然超越英伟达的机会仍然存在,这个世界也从不缺少挑战“霸权”的勇士,但这个任务显然还很漫长。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1709033562161","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谁能替代英伟达?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谁能替代英伟达?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-27 18:05 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2024-02-27/doc-inaknpfi3364051.shtml><strong>产业象限</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者丨山茶 2月22日,英伟达发布2024财年四季报,营收221亿美元,同比增长265%,净利润123亿美元,同比激增769%,双双大超市场预期。 然后,英伟达就杀疯了。 一夜之间,英伟达市值暴涨2770亿美元,创下华尔街单日最大涨幅的历史记录。如今,英伟达的市值已经逼近2万亿美元。以国内生产总值计算,英伟达市值超过了大多数其他国家经济体的规模。 ▲图源:福布斯 从企业层面看,这一市值也...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2024-02-27/doc-inaknpfi3364051.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b8db4b0e3e8dc0281ba058cc5847232","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/csj/2024-02-27/doc-inaknpfi3364051.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122933530","content_text":"作者丨山茶 2月22日,英伟达发布2024财年四季报,营收221亿美元,同比增长265%,净利润123亿美元,同比激增769%,双双大超市场预期。 然后,英伟达就杀疯了。 一夜之间,英伟达市值暴涨2770亿美元,创下华尔街单日最大涨幅的历史记录。如今,英伟达的市值已经逼近2万亿美元。以国内生产总值计算,英伟达市值超过了大多数其他国家经济体的规模。 ▲图源:福布斯 从企业层面看,这一市值也超越Meta,成为仅次于微软、苹果和沙特阿美的全球第四大市值的巨无霸。 但有意思的现象是,虽然已经跻身第一梯队,但无论是营收还是利润,英伟达都与微软、苹果、甚至被它超过的Meta差距较远。 可以对比来看:微软2024财年Q2营收620.2亿美元,净利润218.7亿美元;苹果2024财年Q1营收1195亿美元,净利润339.16亿美元;Meta2023年Q4营收401亿美元,净利润140.17亿美元。 《巴伦周刊》使用基于FactSet预测的2023年至2026年预期平均盈利增长,以及基于2024年预测的市盈率,对美股7大巨头企业的PEG比率(市盈率除以盈利增长率)也做了预测,英伟达是其中最低的。 ▲图源:FactSet 毫无疑问,如今英伟达的市值存在巨大泡沫,但从国内到国外,投资者却都愿意为这样的泡沫买单。 整个市场对英伟达充满信心,因为在某种程度上,市场已经将英伟达与AI时代的未来划上了等号。 投资英伟达,就是投资属于未来的AI时代,在这样的逻辑下,英伟达似乎值得任何市值。 那么,英伟达真的不可替代吗?谁又会成为英伟达的对手,谁又能将它赶下神坛? 01 英伟达,凭什么遥遥领先? 和其它半导体企业相比,英伟达是“遥遥领先”的,起码在市值上如此。 如今,在全球前十的半导体企业中,不算台积电和阿斯麦这样的纯代工厂和光刻机厂商,英伟达的市值约等于剩下七家市值的总和,甚至还有富余。 ▲图源:芯东西 撑起英伟达市值的,是其全球领先的AI计算芯片,包括A100、H100和即将上市的H200。根据富国银行的统计,英伟达目前在全球数据中心AI加速市场拥有98%的份额,处于绝对的统治地位。 很多时候,这些芯片花钱也都很难买到。早在2023年8月的时候,就有媒体报道,英伟达的订单排到了2024年。其芯片的交付周期,也曾一度高达8~11个月(如今已经缩短为3~4个月)。马斯克曾为此吐槽,“英伟达的芯片比毒品还难搞到”。 产能不足,供不应求,这些需求应该自然溢出到其他厂商。从供应链安全的角度考虑,面对如此集中的市场,企业似乎也不应该只选择英伟达这一家的产品。 但全球的企业排着队将订单送到英伟达手中,难道,除了英伟达的芯片之外,AMD、英特尔这些企业的芯片都办法训练大模型吗? 答案当然不是,但使用英伟达的芯片,目前仍然是训练和运行大模型的最优选择。这种优势体现在四个方面,包括硬件性能、软件生态、适用范围和整体性价比。 首先是硬件性能。 以英伟达在2020年5月发布的NVIDIA A100 GPU为例,这款芯片采用7nm制程和NVIDIA Ampere架构,拥有540亿个晶体管和6912个CUDA核心,最高可以提供80GB的GPU显存,以及2TB/s的全球超快显存带宽。在大模型训练和推理常用的FP16(半精度浮点运算)Tensor Core峰值性能可以达到312TF,使用稀疏计算的情况下,可以达到624TF。 ▲图源:CSDN,NVIDIA GPU A100 Ampere(安培)架构深度解析 很多人对这些指标没什么概念,我们来简单解释一下。 芯片的制程决定着同样大小的芯片能够放下的晶体管的数量,而晶体管的数量越多,芯片的计算能力越强,这也是5纳米的芯片一定比7纳米的芯片先进的原因。 至于CUDA核心,即CUDA线程,是英伟达CUDA平台编程模型中的基本执行单元。我们都知道,GPU最强的能力是并行计算,而CUDA核心越多,意味着芯片能同时并行计算的数量也就越多,芯片的性能更强,完成同样任务的速度更快。 需要注意的是,芯片的计算能力强和计算效率高是两个概念。制程和晶体管的数量代表着计算能力,而CUDA核心的数量,代表着计算效率。 至于显存和带宽,则决定了GPU在运行时的效率。其中显存决定GPU同时能够存储的最大数据,而显存带宽,则决定显存和显卡之间的数据传输速度。 举一个简单直白的例子,在一个流水线上,原材料需要从库房运送到车间进行装备,然后将成品再运回库房。显存决定了库房能够放多少原材料,而显存带宽,则决定每次从库房送原材料的速度。如果库房不够大,或者材料传输速度不够快,那车间的生产能力再强,也无法生产出成品。所以显存和带宽,其实决定芯片能够参与训练多大参数规模的大模型,以及训练大模型的速度。 明白了这些基本概念,我们再用最有代表性的两家企业,进行对比。 首先是AMD,目前主打的芯片是MI250X,发布于2021年年底,采用7nm工艺,拥有582亿个晶体管,显存128G,显存带宽3.2768 TB/s,FP16峰值性能为369 TF,只有60个计算单元。 ▲图源:AMD官网,MI250X 其次是英特尔,目前主打芯片Ponte Vecchio,同样发布于2021年,采用7nm工艺,宣称晶体管数量达到1020亿,是全世界晶体管数量最多的芯片。这款芯片显存128GB,显存带宽3.2TB/s,FP16峰值性能184TF,计算单元102个。 ▲图源:英特尔 Hot Chips 演示的幻灯片,展示了 PVC 上的小芯片 我们会发现,即使从单纯的数据上看,英特尔和AMD也没有完全被英伟达甩开,甚至在某些领域,这两家的芯片还领先英伟达的A100。 但是这里有两个误区,第一个误区是,英特尔和AMD这两款芯片的发布时间比A100都要晚一年,他们真正对标的对手,其实应该是英伟达在2022年初发布的H100,而现在英伟达的芯片已经更新到H200了。 ▲图源:Semianalysis 第二个误区在于,硬件指标并不完全等于芯片的整体能力,软件生态是决定芯片性能和使用的第二个关键指标。 这就像手机和操作系统一样,手机的硬件配置再好,没有一个好的操作系统,对于消费者来说仍然不是一款好的手机。而这里需要提到的,就包括英伟达的CUDA平台、NVLink和Tensor Core等软件生态。 比如CUDA平台,我们前面提到的CUDA核心就是这个平台的产物,它可以提高芯片的并行计算能力;它可以通过编程,提高GPU的能效比,让同样的工作耗费更少的能源。 此外,CUDA平台还支持广泛的应用程序,包括科学计算、深度学习、机器学习、图像处理、视频处理等等,它还允许技术人员通过C++等常用的编程语言来编写GPU代码。打一个不恰当的比方,这相当于中国人不用学习英文,直接使用中文指挥外国人做事情,帮助技术人员节省了巨大成本。 但目前市面上大多数程序员已经深度依赖CUDA平台和开发工具,就像我们使用微信许多年了,你的朋友、聊天记录、朋友圈都在这个微信上,即使现在出现一个更好用的社交软件,你也很难迁移。 CUDA带来的生态壁垒也类似这个道理,其他平台虽然也有自己的软件生态,比如AMD有自己的GCN 架构,英特尔有Xe架构,甚至为开发者提供类似“一键换机”迁移功能,但都很难与英伟达竞争。 当然,这里面也有一些曲线救国的做法,比如以AMD为首,越来越多的芯片企业采用了“打不过就加入”的策略,选择将自己的芯片兼容到CUDA平台,早在2012年的时候,AMD就与Nvidia 达成了一项协议,允许AMD在其GCN架构GPU中使用 CUDA 技术,所以现在我们在AMD的芯片中,也会看到CUDA核心。 当然,对于英伟达来说,CUDA也只是护城河的一部分,其他的技术如NVLink也至关重要。 作为大模型训练的GPU,没有哪家企业会单独使用一张GPU,每次都会使用至少几百张卡,甚至上万张卡一起建立计算集群。NVLink是一种链接技术,可以实现GPU之间的高速、低延迟的互联。如果没有这种技术,整个芯片算力的集群就无法实现1+1>3的效果,而且会增加GPU之间的通信延迟,执行任务的效率会降低,芯片的功耗会增加,最终增加整个系统的运行成本。 大模型训练实际上是一个非常消耗能源的事情,国盛证券做过一个计算,假设每天约有1300万独立访客使用ChatGPT,那每天的电费就需要5万美元。而如果没有NVLink,这笔成本还会指数级上升。 芯片某种程度上就像购车一样,购车只是第一次成本,之后的油费、保养、保险才是成本的大头。所以黄仁勋才说,“AI系统最重要的不是硬件组成的成本,而是训练和运用AI的费用。” 所以,虽然AMD、英特尔在某些芯片上把价格定得比英伟达更低,但是从长期成本来考虑,具有更优软件生态和协同、配套工具的英伟达芯片仍然是性价比最高的选择。 当然,这里面还要考虑到使用场景的问题。 比如英伟达的大客户,主要是以Meta、微软、亚马逊、Google为代表的云计算平台。有媒体报道,头部云计算厂商在英伟达H100 GPU整体市场份额中的占比达到50%。 ▲图源:Omida Research 而云厂商采购芯片的逻辑,主要是构建算力集群,然后通过云服务平台将这些算力再卖出去。但这里就会存在一个问题,就是云厂商并不知道客户会拿这些算力来做些什么,比如有的企业会用来做机器学习,有企业需要大模型训练,也有企业需要做大模型推理。 不同的需求,背后对应的算力配置也不尽相同,它需要底层的芯片能够支持多种编程模型,支持多种数据类型,有较好的可拓展性和良好的性能和功耗等等。而这些,恰恰是英伟达硬件能力加软件生态带来的优势。 综合来看,无论是从硬件性能,还是软件生态;无论是从开发工具和部署工具,到长期使用的成本和可开发应用场景。对比同类竞争对手,英伟达都属于最有性价比,且遥遥领先的存在。 这就是为什么明明需要排着长队、忍受长时间等待,大家却仍然执着于英伟达芯片的原因。 02 谁想替代英伟达? 难道英伟达真的不能被超越吗?当然也不是,在巨大的市场利益面前,从传统半导体巨头到初创企业,围剿英伟达的呼声从来就没有停止过。 特别是最近几年,随着云计算和云端AI芯片的火爆,已经有无数的半导体公司说过,自家芯片已经在部分性能上超过了英伟达A100,就像今天也有无数大模型企业会说自己已经在某些方面超过OpenAI GPT-3.5一样。 在最新披露年报中,英伟达是这样描述自己的竞争风险的。 公司的竞争来源主要有两个,一个是 GPU、CPU、DPU、嵌入式SoC和其他加速AI计算处理器产品的公司,比如英特尔、AMD、高通、华为;另一个是提供基于InfiniBand(无线带宽技术)、以太网、光纤通道和专有技术的半导体高性能互连产品供应商,比如华为、思科、惠普这样的通信公司,以及亚马逊、微软、阿里、谷歌、华为这样的云服务公司等等。 特别是第一次被英伟达列为对手且被反复提到的华为。从芯片硬件到软件,从云服务到通信解决方案,英伟达几乎将华为当做所有领域的竞争对手。 奇怪的是,虽然在2023年8月,科大讯飞创始人刘庆峰就提到华为的GPU已经可以对标A100了,但其实从客观的性能、使用成本,软硬件生态工具,华为与英伟达之间仍然有着代际的差距。 华为被如此重视,关键在于两点: 一是市场环境的问题,由于众所周知的原因,英伟达的高端芯片在国内的销路并不畅通,在全面国产替代的背景下,其针对中国的特供版芯片在中国的竞争力也在降低。在这样的背景下,华为拥有更多的成长空间,不必直接对标英伟达最先进的H200。 另一个关键是华为的生态能力非常齐全,作为通信起家的企业,华为不仅拥有自己的芯片,服务器,还拥有自己的云计算平台和大模型。基本上,华为覆盖了AI这条产业链从头到尾的所有环节,对比英伟达拥有更大的潜力和可能。 如今,华为的昇腾910B正在疯狂席卷中国市场,除了科大讯飞之外,国内多地的智算中心也都已经用上了华为的芯片。《财经》之前报道,华为昇腾系列产品目前处在供不应求状态,价格约只有英伟达A100的60%甚至可以更低。 为了应对国内市场的变化,英伟达也在积极推出新的产品。2月初,有媒体报道,英伟达的新款国内专供芯片H20已经开始在接受经销商的预定。 ▲图源:NVIDIA 由H2O.ai和NVIDIA提供支持的融合AI生态系统 而有趣的是,作为新产品,英伟达H20每张的定价换算成人民币仅在8.6万~11万左右,刚好略低于华为昇腾910B 12万元左右的价格。在英伟达承受中国市场压力的背景下,这被看做是一种防守策略。 除了在国内有被黄仁勋亲自认证的竞争对手华为之外,海外市场英伟达其实也是群狼环伺。 最虎视眈眈的自然是AMD。 2023年6月,AMD发布了Instinct MI300,目标是对标英伟达H100,其晶体管数量达到1530亿,内存192GB、内存带宽5.3TB/s,分别是英伟达H100的大约2倍、2.4倍和1.6倍。 软件上,AMD仍然延续兼容CUDA的策略,一方面通过迁移工具,翻译CUDA应用的策略吸引英伟达的开发者,另一方面开源自家的ROCm软件,提高企业和开发者的自主权。 对于芯片算力这么基础的部分,没有企业希望英伟达成为自己的唯一供应商,所以在MI300推出之后,包括OpenAI、微软、Meta都纷纷表态将采购MI300。 除了AMD,即使是已经在AI上落后的英特尔,也不甘心错过这场泼天富贵。 ▲图源:彭博社 英特尔公司首席执行官Patrick Gelsinger于2023年12月14日星期四在美国纽约举行的英特尔AI Everywhere发布会上发表讲话 英特尔最新的AI芯片Gaudi3将在2024年上市,这款芯片采用5nm工艺,最高配备128GB的内存。按英特尔的宣传,这款芯片的带宽是Gaudi 2(7nm工艺)的1.5倍,BF16功率是其4倍,网络算力是其2倍,并表示Gaudi3的性能将优于英伟达的H100。同时,美国政府也在对英特尔进行扶持,预计将向英特尔提供超过100亿美元的补贴。 从战略上,与英伟达的优势在云端不同,英特尔的优势在与其广阔个人终端市场。所以英特尔其实将更大的赌注压在了个人终端的AI化上。英特尔CEO基辛格多次提到,要重构PC体验,并表达对未来AI PC市场的看好。英特尔希望依靠其CPU在个人PC上的优势,率先抢占这一市场,然后再通过消费市场反向促进云端市场的繁荣,打一波农村包围城市的战役。 事实上,芯片的行业特点与软件、或者互联网的商业可以通过建立用户规模,或者生态就建立壁垒实现赢者通吃不同。作为高度技术密集型产业,芯片技术的代际变化非常大,只要存在技术迭代的机会,后来者就永远有弯道超车的可能。 芯片不同于软件,或者互联网等其他业务模式,建立起一定的用户规模之后可以一直赢者通吃。只要存在技术迭代的机会,后来者就永远有弯道超车的可能。 而无论是AMD还是英特尔,亦或者华为,他们都有深厚的技术研发能力和充裕的资金,这些企业可能会在这个阶段暂时落后,但也谁无法笃定,这些企业不会出现一次技术涌现,或者抓住某个技术迭代的关键时期后来居上。 从最新财报看,AMD 2023年Q4数据中心的销售额22.8亿美元,同比增长38%,表明市场已经在逐步接纳其AI芯片的使用。 而除了AMD和英特尔这样的老牌玩家之外,这个市场上还有很多创业者在前赴后继。 最近比较出名的如Groq,其针对大语言模型量身定制的LPU芯片每秒可以生成500个token,远超英伟达芯片的效率。当然,这个成绩仍然是在实验场景下的结果,最终工程化交付还有很长的距离,且这款芯片也还有许多技术问题有待解决。 但这本质上代表,面对新的场景,如今的芯片的技术仍有创新空间。 所以我们会看到,作为全球最具代表的AI企业,OpenAI也宣布了自己的造芯计划。其创始人CEO Altman前段时间不仅传出7万亿美元的募资芯片,在这之前更是已经投资了包括Cerebras、Rain Neuromorphics和Atomic Semi在内的至少三家芯片公司。 远在日本的孙正义,在互联网时代已经功成名就的他也打算放过这次机会,刚刚从巨额的投资亏损中解套的他,立马就提出了募集1000亿美元以创立一家人工智能半导体芯片企业的计划。 有媒体报道,在这次计划中,软银将出资300亿美元资金,另有700亿美元的资金可能来自中东地区的机构。而在2023年,软银集团曾以640亿美元的估值收购ARM公司25%股份,这也是孙正义投入芯片的底气之一。 当然,对于英伟达来说,更大或者更直接的危险还是来自其最大的客户——云厂商。 面对巨大的算力需求,国内如百度、华为、阿里都相继推出了自己的AI芯片,在国外,包括微软、亚马逊、Google也同样在开发自己芯片。 当然,这些芯片主要针对的是特定场景的计算需求,与英伟达面向通用场景的GPT仍然有不同。但这也代表,云计算厂商正在逐步减少对英伟达的依赖。而正如前面所提到的,这部分企业才是真正支撑英伟达业绩的主要客户。 面对这些既定的,或者潜在的市场变化,英伟达自然也没闲着。据路透社报道,英伟达近期已与微软等主要云厂商联系,商讨为云厂商定制AI芯片的问题。 同时,英伟达也在持续推出新的芯片,以期望不断拉开与后来者的距离。目前,英伟达已经公布了其下一代AI芯片B100的消息,设计性能要比H100快3倍。 所以,虽然超越英伟达的机会仍然存在,这个世界也从不缺少挑战“霸权”的勇士,但这个任务显然还很漫长。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":274115913580656,"gmtCreate":1707974589632,"gmtModify":1707980467350,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>194卖出,蚊子腿NO50。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>194卖出,蚊子腿NO50。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 194卖出,蚊子腿NO50。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/186a108207aeb75a8241a229245b9985","width":"1080","height":"405"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/274115913580656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2009,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3581656119913194","authorId":"3581656119913194","authorIdStr":"3581656119913194","name":"拂衣一了无踪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32709b079afbb3de9cebc3e273ba85db","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3581656119913194"},"content":"已经不错了,我183到192出了,194又接回来了[捂脸]","text":"已经不错了,我183到192出了,194又接回来了[捂脸]","html":"已经不错了,我183到192出了,194又接回来了[捂脸]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":272202879561848,"gmtCreate":1707493638472,"gmtModify":1707493641827,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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</a>193.39,卖在山顶,美滋滋。 蚊子腿NO48。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>193.39,卖在山顶,美滋滋。 蚊子腿NO48。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 193.39,卖在山顶,美滋滋。 蚊子腿NO48。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/758cc9c00eeb1f6ae568957c32d0f5b2","width":"1080","height":"719"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/269315167457400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":268628921577768,"gmtCreate":1706614143451,"gmtModify":1706618036156,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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195卖出,蚊子大腿NO47。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51bed458112d298169512e7c464d9e66","width":"1080","height":"412"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268628921577768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493200893098586","authorId":"3493200893098586","authorIdStr":"3493200893098586","name":"Ghost666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5162e5cda227b96bbc0e0c0b63be00","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493200893098586"},"content":"手握100手","text":"手握100手","html":"手握100手"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":268143993974888,"gmtCreate":1706489351602,"gmtModify":1706489352919,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老乡别走","listText":"老乡别走","text":"老乡别走","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/268143993974888","repostId":"1186095226","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186095226","pubTimestamp":1706488028,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186095226?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-29 08:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外围突传大利好!看涨期权交易骤增,中国资产大反攻继续?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186095226","media":"券商中国","summary":"外资正在做多中国资产。外围突传利好据海外交易网站marketchameleon的最新数据显示,海外挂钩追踪中国股票的iShares中国大型股ETF的看涨期权交易量在近一周内出现骤增,达到一年多来的最高点。而仅仅半个月之后,FIX看涨期权交易量又在本周再度刷新阶段新高,看涨期权占比最高一度达86%。招商证券此前表示,看涨期权持仓量上升本身并不能指示方向。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488dce2a29337ea28a67098c7b323a80\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"333\"/></p><p>外资正在做多中国资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据海外交易网站marketchameleon的最新数据显示,海外挂钩追踪中国股票的iShares中国大型股ETF(FXI)的看涨期权交易量在近一周内出现骤增,达到一年多来的最高点。另外,专注于科技领域的KraneShares CSI中国互联网ETF(KWEB)的看涨合约交易量也水涨船高,攀升至历史第二高位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>有分析称,上述种种信号均可以看出,部分外资大行和对冲基金,已看到了中国市场眼下的估值吸引力。美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett认为,当前购买中国股票可能是全球“最具吸引力的逆向长线投资”。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时,国内市场的抄底资金也愈发凶猛,据Wind数据显示,截至1月28日,股票ETF单周资金净流入高达724.68亿元,1月22日股票ETF单日资金净流入超380亿元,创下2023年以来单日新高。拉长时间看,2024年1月以来,股票ETF累计“吸金”已超过1400亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望后市,中信证券最新发布的研报称,稳定资本市场政策在近期集中发力改善市场预期,年初以来市场流动性循环连锁负反馈过程被有效阻断,随着业绩预告风险陆续落地,市场已经步入月度级别的反弹交易窗口。</p><p><strong>外围突传利好</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据海外交易网站marketchameleon的最新数据显示,海外挂钩追踪中国股票的iShares中国大型股ETF(FXI)的看涨期权交易量在近一周内出现骤增,达到一年多来的最高点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>值得一提的是,iShares中国大型股ETF为追踪中国股市的美国最大ETF之一,资产规模达42亿美元(约合人民币300亿元)。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据招商证券的研究显示,iShares中国大盘股ETF追踪标的指数为富时中国50指数。从成分股来看,其主要持有港交所中国大盘股股票,主要权重股包括,阿里巴巴港股(9.2%)、腾讯(8.7%)、建行H股(7.4%)、美团(7.0%)、工行H股(4.7%)。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是,进入2024年1月以来,FXI的期权持仓量已多次出现异动,多头占比连续创出新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d0eea3d54a6ef0cae4616d451b4db4\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"454\"/></p><p>据招商证券跟踪,1月9日FXI期权的总成交量便已飙升至50万份合约,其中看涨期权交易量达40.5万份,占比超过八成。距离前次该期权达到同等活跃水平,中间间隔不到一月。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而仅仅半个月之后,FIX看涨期权交易量又在本周再度刷新阶段新高,看涨期权占比最高一度达86%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">招商证券此前表示,看涨期权持仓量上升本身并不能指示方向。但从历史上看,看涨期权持仓达到相对高点时,其跟踪标的富时中国A50指数往往迎来一波涨幅可观的反弹行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,财通证券分析师李美岑也在近日的报告中称,FIX看涨期权持仓量短期大幅上升,或显示外部市场对于A股的信心也正在恢复。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外,专注于科技领域的KraneShares CSI中国互联网ETF(KWEB)的看涨合约交易量也水涨船高,攀升至历史第二高位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">有分析称,上述种种信号均可以看出,部分外资大行和对冲基金,已看到了中国市场眼下的估值吸引力。Gavekal集团的联合创始人Charles Gave就在最新的报告中表示,中国股市现在提供了全球最具价值的投资机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间1月26日,美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett援引EPFR的数据称,中国股票基金单周吸引119亿美元资金流入,规模为2015年7月以来最大,也是史上第二大,这对中国股市来说是一个积极的信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hartnett认为,当前购买中国股票可能是全球“最具吸引力的逆向长线投资”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/298961954494a8ebbd6767f5a9b7b9ac\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"466\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>近期北向资金的流向,也验证了外资对中国资产的乐观预期。据Wind数据显示,北向资金终结周度净流出态势,上周5个交易日内,北向资金净流入天数达到4天,单周合计净流入121.02亿元。而在此前三周,北向资金均为连续净流出,金额合计达314.58亿元。</strong></p><p><strong>爆买1400亿</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚过去的5个交易日,A股上演了大反攻行情,在一系列政策利好的加持下,上证指数斩获四连阳,成功收复2800点、2900点两个整数关口,单周涨幅达2.75%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">通过市值维度来看,截至上周五收盘,A股总市值合计约为799849亿元,单周累计增长约13135亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">大反攻行情之下,抄底资金愈发凶猛,股票ETF成为吸引抄底资金的“中坚力量”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据Wind数据显示,截至1月28日,股票ETF单周资金净流入高达724.68亿元,1月22日股票ETF单日资金净流入更是超过380亿元,创下2023年以来单日新高。1月24日、1月26日两个交易日资金净流入也均超过百亿元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拉长时间看,2024年1月以来,股票ETF累计“吸金”已超过1400亿元,这也是股票ETF连续两个月“吸金”超千亿元,将有望挑战去年8月1607亿元的资金净流入记录。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业内人士表示,股票ETF具有持仓透明、费率低廉,流动性佳等特点,一直以来都是场内投资者交易的便捷投资工具,很多交易型投资者也偏好借道股票ETF把握市场的波段性机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从资金流向上看,沪深300、上证50等权重股集中的ETF是资金流入的主要方向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Wind数据显示,截至1月28日,华泰柏瑞、易方达、嘉实、华夏四大指数巨头旗下的沪深300ETF包揽本周股票ETF资金净流入榜前四名,其中,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF以资金净流入超 175亿元居首,四只沪深300ETF合计资金净流入高达546.33亿元。</p><p><strong>后续如何演绎?</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">站在当前时点,投资者最关心的话题或许是,这一波A股的反攻行情后续将如何演绎?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信证券最新发布的研报称,稳定资本市场政策在近期集中发力改善市场预期,年初以来市场流动性循环连锁负反馈过程被有效阻断,随着业绩预告风险陆续落地,市场已经步入月度级别的反弹交易窗口。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>中信证券给出了以下三点逻辑:</strong></p><p>首先,证券监管部门及时回应市场关切,投资端改革举措有望加速推出,地产领域支持政策明显加码,预计2月仍有降息举措,国资委继续强调上市央企的投资者回报,央企权重股压舱石作用凸显,改善营商环境政策频出,市场信心有望逐渐恢复;</p><p>其次,类“平准”基金打破负反馈,雪球敲入和量化平仓压力明显缓解,机构持仓均衡化过程加快;</p><p>最后,随着年报业绩预告陆续落地,2023年四季度业绩风险充分释放,反弹窗口期仍将呈现交易型资金主导的特征,央企红利低波和高股息板块是窗口期最具共识的主线,同时关注低估值绩优蓝筹的布局机会。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中金研报也认为,近期政策层面正在发生积极变化,短期流动性风险逐步得到化解,指数具备一定的修复动能,当前机构重仓的成长行业与中小盘风格整体表现偏弱,反映投资者风险偏好仍待修复。结合当前偏低估值所隐含的谨慎预期,以及政策因素积极转变,对后续市场表现不必过于悲观。配置上,短期结合政策变化关注受益领域,注重景气回升和红利资产的攻守结合。</p></body></html>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-29 08:27 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J7sbLVhIMZm8CBFsGHexLA><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>外资正在做多中国资产。据海外交易网站marketchameleon的最新数据显示,海外挂钩追踪中国股票的iShares中国大型股ETF(FXI)的看涨期权交易量在近一周内出现骤增,达到一年多来的最高点。另外,专注于科技领域的KraneShares CSI中国互联网ETF(KWEB)的看涨合约交易量也水涨船高,攀升至历史第二高位。有分析称,上述种种信号均可以看出,部分外资大行和对冲基金,已看到了...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J7sbLVhIMZm8CBFsGHexLA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/488dce2a29337ea28a67098c7b323a80","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/J7sbLVhIMZm8CBFsGHexLA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186095226","content_text":"外资正在做多中国资产。据海外交易网站marketchameleon的最新数据显示,海外挂钩追踪中国股票的iShares中国大型股ETF(FXI)的看涨期权交易量在近一周内出现骤增,达到一年多来的最高点。另外,专注于科技领域的KraneShares CSI中国互联网ETF(KWEB)的看涨合约交易量也水涨船高,攀升至历史第二高位。有分析称,上述种种信号均可以看出,部分外资大行和对冲基金,已看到了中国市场眼下的估值吸引力。美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett认为,当前购买中国股票可能是全球“最具吸引力的逆向长线投资”。同时,国内市场的抄底资金也愈发凶猛,据Wind数据显示,截至1月28日,股票ETF单周资金净流入高达724.68亿元,1月22日股票ETF单日资金净流入超380亿元,创下2023年以来单日新高。拉长时间看,2024年1月以来,股票ETF累计“吸金”已超过1400亿元。展望后市,中信证券最新发布的研报称,稳定资本市场政策在近期集中发力改善市场预期,年初以来市场流动性循环连锁负反馈过程被有效阻断,随着业绩预告风险陆续落地,市场已经步入月度级别的反弹交易窗口。外围突传利好据海外交易网站marketchameleon的最新数据显示,海外挂钩追踪中国股票的iShares中国大型股ETF(FXI)的看涨期权交易量在近一周内出现骤增,达到一年多来的最高点。值得一提的是,iShares中国大型股ETF为追踪中国股市的美国最大ETF之一,资产规模达42亿美元(约合人民币300亿元)。据招商证券的研究显示,iShares中国大盘股ETF追踪标的指数为富时中国50指数。从成分股来看,其主要持有港交所中国大盘股股票,主要权重股包括,阿里巴巴港股(9.2%)、腾讯(8.7%)、建行H股(7.4%)、美团(7.0%)、工行H股(4.7%)。值得注意的是,进入2024年1月以来,FXI的期权持仓量已多次出现异动,多头占比连续创出新高。据招商证券跟踪,1月9日FXI期权的总成交量便已飙升至50万份合约,其中看涨期权交易量达40.5万份,占比超过八成。距离前次该期权达到同等活跃水平,中间间隔不到一月。而仅仅半个月之后,FIX看涨期权交易量又在本周再度刷新阶段新高,看涨期权占比最高一度达86%。招商证券此前表示,看涨期权持仓量上升本身并不能指示方向。但从历史上看,看涨期权持仓达到相对高点时,其跟踪标的富时中国A50指数往往迎来一波涨幅可观的反弹行情。此外,财通证券分析师李美岑也在近日的报告中称,FIX看涨期权持仓量短期大幅上升,或显示外部市场对于A股的信心也正在恢复。另外,专注于科技领域的KraneShares CSI中国互联网ETF(KWEB)的看涨合约交易量也水涨船高,攀升至历史第二高位。有分析称,上述种种信号均可以看出,部分外资大行和对冲基金,已看到了中国市场眼下的估值吸引力。Gavekal集团的联合创始人Charles Gave就在最新的报告中表示,中国股市现在提供了全球最具价值的投资机会。当地时间1月26日,美国银行策略师Michael Hartnett援引EPFR的数据称,中国股票基金单周吸引119亿美元资金流入,规模为2015年7月以来最大,也是史上第二大,这对中国股市来说是一个积极的信号。Hartnett认为,当前购买中国股票可能是全球“最具吸引力的逆向长线投资”。近期北向资金的流向,也验证了外资对中国资产的乐观预期。据Wind数据显示,北向资金终结周度净流出态势,上周5个交易日内,北向资金净流入天数达到4天,单周合计净流入121.02亿元。而在此前三周,北向资金均为连续净流出,金额合计达314.58亿元。爆买1400亿刚刚过去的5个交易日,A股上演了大反攻行情,在一系列政策利好的加持下,上证指数斩获四连阳,成功收复2800点、2900点两个整数关口,单周涨幅达2.75%。通过市值维度来看,截至上周五收盘,A股总市值合计约为799849亿元,单周累计增长约13135亿元。大反攻行情之下,抄底资金愈发凶猛,股票ETF成为吸引抄底资金的“中坚力量”。据Wind数据显示,截至1月28日,股票ETF单周资金净流入高达724.68亿元,1月22日股票ETF单日资金净流入更是超过380亿元,创下2023年以来单日新高。1月24日、1月26日两个交易日资金净流入也均超过百亿元。拉长时间看,2024年1月以来,股票ETF累计“吸金”已超过1400亿元,这也是股票ETF连续两个月“吸金”超千亿元,将有望挑战去年8月1607亿元的资金净流入记录。业内人士表示,股票ETF具有持仓透明、费率低廉,流动性佳等特点,一直以来都是场内投资者交易的便捷投资工具,很多交易型投资者也偏好借道股票ETF把握市场的波段性机会。从资金流向上看,沪深300、上证50等权重股集中的ETF是资金流入的主要方向。Wind数据显示,截至1月28日,华泰柏瑞、易方达、嘉实、华夏四大指数巨头旗下的沪深300ETF包揽本周股票ETF资金净流入榜前四名,其中,华泰柏瑞沪深300ETF以资金净流入超 175亿元居首,四只沪深300ETF合计资金净流入高达546.33亿元。后续如何演绎?站在当前时点,投资者最关心的话题或许是,这一波A股的反攻行情后续将如何演绎?中信证券最新发布的研报称,稳定资本市场政策在近期集中发力改善市场预期,年初以来市场流动性循环连锁负反馈过程被有效阻断,随着业绩预告风险陆续落地,市场已经步入月度级别的反弹交易窗口。中信证券给出了以下三点逻辑:首先,证券监管部门及时回应市场关切,投资端改革举措有望加速推出,地产领域支持政策明显加码,预计2月仍有降息举措,国资委继续强调上市央企的投资者回报,央企权重股压舱石作用凸显,改善营商环境政策频出,市场信心有望逐渐恢复;其次,类“平准”基金打破负反馈,雪球敲入和量化平仓压力明显缓解,机构持仓均衡化过程加快;最后,随着年报业绩预告陆续落地,2023年四季度业绩风险充分释放,反弹窗口期仍将呈现交易型资金主导的特征,央企红利低波和高股息板块是窗口期最具共识的主线,同时关注低估值绩优蓝筹的布局机会。中金研报也认为,近期政策层面正在发生积极变化,短期流动性风险逐步得到化解,指数具备一定的修复动能,当前机构重仓的成长行业与中小盘风格整体表现偏弱,反映投资者风险偏好仍待修复。结合当前偏低估值所隐含的谨慎预期,以及政策因素积极转变,对后续市场表现不必过于悲观。配置上,短期结合政策变化关注受益领域,注重景气回升和红利资产的攻守结合。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":224114072727640,"gmtCreate":1695752504556,"gmtModify":1695752862249,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>243,再次买入。[龇牙] [龇牙] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>243,再次买入。[龇牙] [龇牙] ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 243,再次买入。[龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddab6bf6a818eb915a36777167483e2","width":"2160","height":"1916"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/224114072727640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1030,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4143193164711522","authorId":"4143193164711522","authorIdStr":"4143193164711522","name":"jhdxr","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4143193164711522"},"content":"有点难,今天怕是要破支撑了。大鹰牌讲话了","text":"有点难,今天怕是要破支撑了。大鹰牌讲话了","html":"有点难,今天怕是要破支撑了。大鹰牌讲话了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":231885365014680,"gmtCreate":1697642525458,"gmtModify":1697642529469,"author":{"id":"4100517425095450","authorId":"4100517425095450","authorIdStr":"4100517425095450","name":"仓右嘉措","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe4c3469b049b5cd16092b7b85f2e3c2","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4100517425095450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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