jetsetyeo的个人主页 - 老虎社区

jetsetyeo

jetsetyeo

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

13关注

8粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-12-30

$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$ time to buy in?

2021-12-25

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$ when is it going to get better

2021-12-08

$Apple(AAPL)$why you raise so much after I sell? [Cry]

2021-12-08

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$

2021-12-04

Time to buy in?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-02

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，这是通胀飙升时拥有的最佳企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该购买什么</blockquote>

2021-10-30

FOMO

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-22

$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$nice

2021-10-17

$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$too late to buy?

2021-10-13

$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$ negative net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive about this stock to cause the last few spikes?

2021-10-13

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ up up up

2021-10-12

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ still optimistic

2021-10-12

$China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628)$ going up?tike to buy?

2021-10-12

Insurance sector going upside?

@财经壹些事:保险板块迎久违大涨四季度多重因素交织

2021-10-11

$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah

2021-10-10

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$niceeee 😊

2021-09-22

$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$

2021-09-19

$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ coming down

2021-09-19

Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years

Apple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：重力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote>

2021-09-13

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ go up soon.. Like the daily cases [真香]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4087893451634750","uuid":"4087893451634750","gmtCreate":1624791769556,"gmtModify":1631174455278,"name":"jetsetyeo","pinyin":"jetsetyeo","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":8,"headSize":13,"tweetSize":23,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":692022314,"gmtCreate":1640796073097,"gmtModify":1640796073240,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>&nbsp;time to buy in?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C52.SI\">$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$</a>&nbsp;time to buy in?&nbsp;","text":"$COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LTD(C52.SI)$ time to buy in?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/568d1dcabbbc5a2a2bcefe29af33bdac","width":"1080","height":"2977"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692022314","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698506065,"gmtCreate":1640431711010,"gmtModify":1640431711138,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to get better","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to get better","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$ when is it going to get better","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd9085e64fdf9707658d7e82e49617f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698506065","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602396913,"gmtCreate":1638968872346,"gmtModify":1638968918217,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>why you raise so much after I sell?&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>why you raise so much after I sell?&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$why you raise so much after I sell? [Cry]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf445c1259bb61c39b84ef6f2c02fa3","width":"1080","height":"3064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602396913","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602398257,"gmtCreate":1638968741226,"gmtModify":1638968915861,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47369ff7ab6c42e3f29de4b032523cf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602398257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608973574,"gmtCreate":1638608746837,"gmtModify":1638608746905,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy in?&nbsp;","listText":"Time to buy in?&nbsp;","text":"Time to buy in?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608973574","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841917054,"gmtCreate":1635868037094,"gmtModify":1635868037160,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841917054","repostId":"2180020937","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2180020937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635846331,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180020937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，这是通胀飙升时拥有的最佳企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该购买什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180020937","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted tw","content":"<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你不妨从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在20世纪70年代管理了一个股票投资组合，度过了两位数的通胀率时期，并就消费者价格飙升时持有什么股票提出了很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在1981年致伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）能够轻松提高价格，2）能够在不花费太多的情况下承接更多业务。为了做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，瞄准投资有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克(NKE)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意花高价购买与勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员相关的标志性装备。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现远高于30%的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中获取其产品的全价。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到业务的40%左右。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，利润率可能会继续扩大，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，耐克股价已上涨约19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果(AAPL)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高端硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>客户无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这让这家科技巨头在定价方面有更多的自由。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的M1芯片将逐渐取代每台Mac中的英特尔CPU，突显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上升的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会大幅损失销量。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>Warren Buffett允许苹果在Berkshire Hathaway的投资组合中增长到40%，这是有充分理由的：该业务在所有经济周期中都保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约13%，交易价格接近每股150美元。但如果你对目前的水平犹豫不决，一些应用程序可能会给你一份免费的苹果，只是为了注册。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（LEVI）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增加营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了41%，调整后毛利率提高了390个基点，达到57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始主动调整通胀定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi股价在2021年上涨了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永久资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最好的策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个通胀避风港值得永远持有——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格攀升得多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而恰好巴菲特的好朋友比尔·盖茨是美国最大的农田私人所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>你将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，你还会从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它没有任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，这是通胀飙升时拥有的最佳企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该购买什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，这是通胀飙升时拥有的最佳企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该购买什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 17:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你不妨从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在20世纪70年代管理了一个股票投资组合，度过了两位数的通胀率时期，并就消费者价格飙升时持有什么股票提出了很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在1981年致伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）能够轻松提高价格，2）能够在不花费太多的情况下承接更多业务。为了做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，瞄准投资有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克(NKE)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意花高价购买与勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员相关的标志性装备。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现远高于30%的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中获取其产品的全价。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到业务的40%左右。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，利润率可能会继续扩大，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，耐克股价已上涨约19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果(AAPL)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高端硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>客户无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这让这家科技巨头在定价方面有更多的自由。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的M1芯片将逐渐取代每台Mac中的英特尔CPU，突显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上升的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会大幅损失销量。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>Warren Buffett允许苹果在Berkshire Hathaway的投资组合中增长到40%，这是有充分理由的：该业务在所有经济周期中都保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约13%，交易价格接近每股150美元。但如果你对目前的水平犹豫不决，一些应用程序可能会给你一份免费的苹果，只是为了注册。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（LEVI）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增加营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了41%，调整后毛利率提高了390个基点，达到57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始主动调整通胀定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi股价在2021年上涨了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永久资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最好的策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个通胀避风港值得永远持有——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格攀升得多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而恰好巴菲特的好朋友比尔·盖茨是美国最大的农田私人所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>你将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，你还会从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它没有任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","LEVI":"李维斯","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180020937","content_text":"Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.\n\nHigh inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.\nBut fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.\nBuffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.\nIn a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.\nIn other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.\nLet’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.\nNike (NKE)\nTY Lim/Shutterstock\nNike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.\nCustomers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.\nDespite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.\nThe company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.\nManagement believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.\nAmazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.\nNike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.\nApple (AAPL)\nVytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock\nGlobal demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.\nStrong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.\nCustomers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.\nThe company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.\nApple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.\nWarren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.\nApple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.\nLevi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)\ndean bertoncelj/Shutterstock\nA market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.\nSpecifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.\nIn the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.\nIn fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.\nThe company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.\nLevi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.\nThe ultimate 'forever asset'?\nMNStudio/Shutterstock\nWarren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.\nBut forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.\nBut there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.\nNo matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.\nThese days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.\nYou’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.\nThis article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LEVI":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840949836,"gmtCreate":1635579563342,"gmtModify":1635579563342,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FOMO","listText":"FOMO","text":"FOMO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840949836","repostId":"2179245604","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853766099,"gmtCreate":1634847702675,"gmtModify":1634847702869,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","text":"$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09326cb866c97d60db920ee503139e56","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853766099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827311238,"gmtCreate":1634412745670,"gmtModify":1634412745828,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","text":"$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$too late to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a939d273ee29d51b5ec25c86d64db6","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827311238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822652018,"gmtCreate":1634130128692,"gmtModify":1634130128757,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","text":"$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$ negative net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive about this stock to cause the last few spikes?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede7f267a8801ff40a537599086110cc","width":"1080","height":"3100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822652018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822651174,"gmtCreate":1634129777690,"gmtModify":1634129777690,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;up up up","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcce6f8b2dfa3dee9d4040abb2f6560","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822651174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826554617,"gmtCreate":1634042190140,"gmtModify":1634042197130,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;still optimistic&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;still optimistic&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ still optimistic","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c017997936944a1dd79676900b8c8d3e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826554617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826555434,"gmtCreate":1634042130631,"gmtModify":1634042194666,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601628\">$China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628)$</a>&nbsp;going up?tike to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601628\">$China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628)$</a>&nbsp;going up?tike to buy?&nbsp;","text":"$China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628)$ going up?tike to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eef3a5316e8f6c93a10ac9a0935ac45","width":"1080","height":"2536"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826555434","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826555808,"gmtCreate":1634042083753,"gmtModify":1634042191945,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Insurance sector going upside?&nbsp;","listText":"Insurance sector going upside?&nbsp;","text":"Insurance sector going upside?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826555808","repostId":"821224333","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":821224333,"gmtCreate":1633749916922,"gmtModify":1633751613003,"author":{"id":"3579235350711747","authorId":"3579235350711747","name":"财经壹些事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fe0218783737b72c056ec92edbe76a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579235350711747","authorIdStr":"3579235350711747"},"themes":[],"title":"保险板块迎久违大涨 四季度多重因素交织","htmlText":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","listText":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","text":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821224333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828414135,"gmtCreate":1633935136984,"gmtModify":1633935136984,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89479b0c48969a1f0056ca85a2b5f17a","width":"1080","height":"2126"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828414135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828800932,"gmtCreate":1633876998285,"gmtModify":1633876998285,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>niceeee 😊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>niceeee 😊","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$niceeee 😊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae017f8bf3ad64ff38c9305fb91db529","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828800932","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869403134,"gmtCreate":1632312399228,"gmtModify":1632801342422,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2a1139eaa8128c087baae8a28d5365","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869403134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887285196,"gmtCreate":1632046194715,"gmtModify":1632803143383,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ coming down","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd1d94e1bd8b19bdad07a703d233afe","width":"1080","height":"2213"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887285196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887286412,"gmtCreate":1632045932136,"gmtModify":1632803144955,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","listText":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","text":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887286412","repostId":"1157890009","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157890009","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631877276,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157890009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 19:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：重力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157890009","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and sc","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).</li>  <li>The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</li>  <li>Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从苹果（AAPL）的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）和资本边际效率（MROCE）。</li><li>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</li><li>鉴于其极高的ROCE和估值，AAPL仍然是一项可靠的长期投资，我的最终结论是持有评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析苹果（AAPL），重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析业务的两个最重要的指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</p><p><blockquote>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。嗯，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。近年来，回报递减的严重性开始赶上苹果公司的巨头，尽管投资者不必过于惊慌。鉴于其非常高的ROCE和合理的估值，即使考虑到这种递减的回报，AAPL仍然是一项有吸引力的投资。因此，我对这只股票的最终结论是在目前的情况下给予持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的护城河在于其规模和用户的忠诚度。例如，下图显示了2007年至2018年苹果iPhone在全球的年销量（单位：百万）。可以看出，在2018财年，苹果售出了超过2.17亿部iPhone。近年来，iPhone的销量明显趋于稳定，指数增长的日子已经结束。不过，投资者不必过于担心iPhone销量本身的稳定（目前仍是AAPL最赚钱的产品）。投资者需要考察的是，iPhones（或其他AAPL设备）带来的网络效应是否已经达到了可扩展性的极限，这将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f97ee5d85cf7fd736cc8140b9c94c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista 2007年至2018年苹果iPhone全球销量（百万）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值——至少在某种程度上是这样。网络概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在某种程度上。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们网络效应是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看到收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，人们会直觉地期望AAPL提供的服务享受完美的可扩展性的好处。因为AAPL的商业模式受益于自我维持的正反馈循环。一旦企业如上所示用iPhones吸引了足够多的用户，并启动了一个生态系统，网络效应就会发挥作用并自我放大。该网络中更多的用户将导致用户和设备之间更方便的共享和通信、更多的附加值、更准确的推荐、搜索结果等。这些好处将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值；这反过来将吸引更多新用户加入并购买其新设备；这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。</blockquote></p><p> If you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有同样的直觉，那么你会对这篇文章的结果感到惊讶。近年来的MROCE结果实际上表明，收益递减的严重性正在赶上AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对于像AAPL这样的企业，我认为以下项目是实际使用的资本：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、营运资金，包括应付账款、应收账款、存货。这些是其业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.不动产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于AAPL这样的企业来说，这是一项必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。正如所见，在过去的十年里，它能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平。本世纪初曾为450%，自2016年以来近年来仍徘徊在平均152%左右。为了正确看待事情，下图将AAPL的ROCE与其他FAAMG股票进行了比较——这是一组最能利用网络效应的典型股票。可以看出，AAPL仍然在这群超常表现者中获得了最高的竞争ROCE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcbd3c49fa185cf29b726c7651b7e57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a95831d57c9cbc7eeb5307ff0369ee7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有类似重力的作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE是指这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL’s MROCE</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司的MROCE</b></blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。不幸的是，如下图所示，AAPL似乎已经过了可扩展性的临界点，并在最近几年开始看到回报递减。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>此图表显示了AAPL近年来的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> The results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.</p><p><blockquote>下图所示的结果显示，在此阶段，APPL一直保持着明显低于平均ROCE的MROCE。如上所述，近年来ROCE平均为152%，MROCE平均为45%。且差异过大，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明，AAPL已经开始进入收益递减阶段——重力开始迎头赶上。而如果目前的MROCE持续下去，AAPL的ROCE将从目前的水平逐渐下降，收敛到45%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5659d7a6a1d5b6090aa9de2f13acca0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>But no need to panic yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但还没必要惊慌</b></blockquote></p><p> However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，AAPL的ROCE非常高。即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常具有竞争力，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b33ca92602b6d555c2e67e21f4127b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>其次，苹果公司目前的估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都非常合理。从下图可以看出，在目前的价格水平上，AAPL的FW PE约为28.6倍，是FAAMG中最低的。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表还将AAPL根据ROCE调整后的估值与其同行进行了比较。如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，这张图表显示了通过简单地将PE除以ROCE来调整ROCE的估值。正如所见，其调整后的估值在FAAMG中更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最后，橙色条显示了当AAPL的ROCE最终降至45%时调整后的估值。可以看出，即使发生这种情况，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df451c670c1a6f0343418f5914f80b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425296098ce22a839c9dd99de3363e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final thought</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和最后的思考</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了AAPL，重点是其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.</li>  <li>But the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>And second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>Given the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROCE过去平均约为150%以上，是FAAMG同行中最高的。</li><li>但近年来MROCE平均为45%。因此，这一结果表明，收益递减正开始赶上AAPL。MROCE和ROCE之间的差异太大，不可能是由财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。</li></ul><ul><li>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力。</li><li>其次，即使在ROCE减速之后，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</li><li>鉴于上述盈利能力和估值的考虑，我对该股的最终结论是在当前条件下给予持有评级。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：重力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：重力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 19:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).</li>  <li>The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</li>  <li>Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从苹果（AAPL）的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）和资本边际效率（MROCE）。</li><li>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</li><li>鉴于其极高的ROCE和估值，AAPL仍然是一项可靠的长期投资，我的最终结论是持有评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析苹果（AAPL），重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析业务的两个最重要的指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</p><p><blockquote>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。嗯，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。近年来，回报递减的严重性开始赶上苹果公司的巨头，尽管投资者不必过于惊慌。鉴于其非常高的ROCE和合理的估值，即使考虑到这种递减的回报，AAPL仍然是一项有吸引力的投资。因此，我对这只股票的最终结论是在目前的情况下给予持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的护城河在于其规模和用户的忠诚度。例如，下图显示了2007年至2018年苹果iPhone在全球的年销量（单位：百万）。可以看出，在2018财年，苹果售出了超过2.17亿部iPhone。近年来，iPhone的销量明显趋于稳定，指数增长的日子已经结束。不过，投资者不必过于担心iPhone销量本身的稳定（目前仍是AAPL最赚钱的产品）。投资者需要考察的是，iPhones（或其他AAPL设备）带来的网络效应是否已经达到了可扩展性的极限，这将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f97ee5d85cf7fd736cc8140b9c94c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista 2007年至2018年苹果iPhone全球销量（百万）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值——至少在某种程度上是这样。网络概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在某种程度上。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们网络效应是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看到收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，人们会直觉地期望AAPL提供的服务享受完美的可扩展性的好处。因为AAPL的商业模式受益于自我维持的正反馈循环。一旦企业如上所示用iPhones吸引了足够多的用户，并启动了一个生态系统，网络效应就会发挥作用并自我放大。该网络中更多的用户将导致用户和设备之间更方便的共享和通信、更多的附加值、更准确的推荐、搜索结果等。这些好处将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值；这反过来将吸引更多新用户加入并购买其新设备；这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。</blockquote></p><p> If you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有同样的直觉，那么你会对这篇文章的结果感到惊讶。近年来的MROCE结果实际上表明，收益递减的严重性正在赶上AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对于像AAPL这样的企业，我认为以下项目是实际使用的资本：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、营运资金，包括应付账款、应收账款、存货。这些是其业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.不动产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于AAPL这样的企业来说，这是一项必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。正如所见，在过去的十年里，它能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平。本世纪初曾为450%，自2016年以来近年来仍徘徊在平均152%左右。为了正确看待事情，下图将AAPL的ROCE与其他FAAMG股票进行了比较——这是一组最能利用网络效应的典型股票。可以看出，AAPL仍然在这群超常表现者中获得了最高的竞争ROCE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcbd3c49fa185cf29b726c7651b7e57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a95831d57c9cbc7eeb5307ff0369ee7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有类似重力的作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE是指这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL’s MROCE</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司的MROCE</b></blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。不幸的是，如下图所示，AAPL似乎已经过了可扩展性的临界点，并在最近几年开始看到回报递减。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>此图表显示了AAPL近年来的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> The results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.</p><p><blockquote>下图所示的结果显示，在此阶段，APPL一直保持着明显低于平均ROCE的MROCE。如上所述，近年来ROCE平均为152%，MROCE平均为45%。且差异过大，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明，AAPL已经开始进入收益递减阶段——重力开始迎头赶上。而如果目前的MROCE持续下去，AAPL的ROCE将从目前的水平逐渐下降，收敛到45%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5659d7a6a1d5b6090aa9de2f13acca0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>But no need to panic yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但还没必要惊慌</b></blockquote></p><p> However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，AAPL的ROCE非常高。即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常具有竞争力，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b33ca92602b6d555c2e67e21f4127b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>其次，苹果公司目前的估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都非常合理。从下图可以看出，在目前的价格水平上，AAPL的FW PE约为28.6倍，是FAAMG中最低的。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表还将AAPL根据ROCE调整后的估值与其同行进行了比较。如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，这张图表显示了通过简单地将PE除以ROCE来调整ROCE的估值。正如所见，其调整后的估值在FAAMG中更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最后，橙色条显示了当AAPL的ROCE最终降至45%时调整后的估值。可以看出，即使发生这种情况，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df451c670c1a6f0343418f5914f80b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425296098ce22a839c9dd99de3363e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final thought</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和最后的思考</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了AAPL，重点是其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.</li>  <li>But the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>And second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>Given the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROCE过去平均约为150%以上，是FAAMG同行中最高的。</li><li>但近年来MROCE平均为45%。因此，这一结果表明，收益递减正开始赶上AAPL。MROCE和ROCE之间的差异太大，不可能是由财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。</li></ul><ul><li>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力。</li><li>其次，即使在ROCE减速之后，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</li><li>鉴于上述盈利能力和估值的考虑，我对该股的最终结论是在当前条件下给予持有评级。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455586-apple-gravity-is-catching-up-on-this-juggernaut\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455586-apple-gravity-is-catching-up-on-this-juggernaut","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157890009","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).\nThe results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.\nGiven its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.\nWarren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.\nThe moat and the network effects\nAAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.\nSource: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.\nThe network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nIn theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.\nIf you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nAAPL’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nThe results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nBut no need to panic yet\nHowever, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nSecondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.\nThe next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.\nAnd finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nThe ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.\nBut the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.\n\n\nHowever, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.\nAnd second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.\nGiven the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888557407,"gmtCreate":1631511108609,"gmtModify":1631885568387,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087893451634750","authorIdStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;go up soon.. Like the daily cases&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;go up soon.. Like the daily cases&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ go up soon.. Like the daily cases [真香]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0248174d64c80d446c8f25bb557070ee","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888557407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":608973574,"gmtCreate":1638608746837,"gmtModify":1638608746905,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to buy in?&nbsp;","listText":"Time to buy in?&nbsp;","text":"Time to buy in?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608973574","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602396913,"gmtCreate":1638968872346,"gmtModify":1638968918217,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>why you raise so much after I sell?&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>why you raise so much after I sell?&nbsp;[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$why you raise so much after I sell? [Cry]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbf445c1259bb61c39b84ef6f2c02fa3","width":"1080","height":"3064"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602396913","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602398257,"gmtCreate":1638968741226,"gmtModify":1638968915861,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e47369ff7ab6c42e3f29de4b032523cf","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602398257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841917054,"gmtCreate":1635868037094,"gmtModify":1635868037160,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841917054","repostId":"2180020937","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2180020937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635846331,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180020937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 17:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，这是通胀飙升时拥有的最佳企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该购买什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180020937","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted tw","content":"<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你不妨从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在20世纪70年代管理了一个股票投资组合，度过了两位数的通胀率时期，并就消费者价格飙升时持有什么股票提出了很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在1981年致伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）能够轻松提高价格，2）能够在不花费太多的情况下承接更多业务。为了做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，瞄准投资有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克(NKE)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意花高价购买与勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员相关的标志性装备。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现远高于30%的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中获取其产品的全价。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到业务的40%左右。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，利润率可能会继续扩大，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，耐克股价已上涨约19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果(AAPL)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高端硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>客户无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这让这家科技巨头在定价方面有更多的自由。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的M1芯片将逐渐取代每台Mac中的英特尔CPU，突显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上升的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会大幅损失销量。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>Warren Buffett允许苹果在Berkshire Hathaway的投资组合中增长到40%，这是有充分理由的：该业务在所有经济周期中都保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约13%，交易价格接近每股150美元。但如果你对目前的水平犹豫不决，一些应用程序可能会给你一份免费的苹果，只是为了注册。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（LEVI）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增加营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了41%，调整后毛利率提高了390个基点，达到57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始主动调整通胀定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi股价在2021年上涨了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永久资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最好的策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个通胀避风港值得永远持有——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格攀升得多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而恰好巴菲特的好朋友比尔·盖茨是美国最大的农田私人所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>你将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，你还会从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它没有任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Warren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，这是通胀飙升时拥有的最佳企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该购买什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWarren Buffett says this is the best type of business to own when inflation spikes — in other words, what you should buy right now<blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，这是通胀飙升时拥有的最佳企业类型——换句话说，你现在应该购买什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-02 17:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很高。你不妨从中获利。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/143c38befb27f09743294aafaffbe94a\" tg-width=\"1800\" tg-height=\"800\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> High inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>该国的高通胀率已成为华尔街的严重担忧。</blockquote></p><p> But fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.</p><p><blockquote>但对于普通投资者来说幸运的是，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在应对这种环境方面拥有丰富的经验。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在20世纪70年代管理了一个股票投资组合，度过了两位数的通胀率时期，并就消费者价格飙升时持有什么股票提出了很多建议。</blockquote></p><p> In a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.</p><p><blockquote>在1981年致伯克希尔股东的一封信中，巴菲特强调了使企业能够很好地适应通货膨胀环境的两个特征：1）能够轻松提高价格，2）能够在不花费太多的情况下承接更多业务。为了做到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，瞄准投资有定价权的轻资产业务。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.</p><p><blockquote>让我们快速浏览一下符合这一描述的三家公司。其中一个（或全部）可能值得用你的闲钱购买。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nike (NKE)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>耐克(NKE)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a24fd7cb9b4e01313c7bb848af6da9d\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>TY Lim/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>泰·林/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.</p><p><blockquote>耐克是全球鞋类巨头，拥有很高的客户忠诚度。</blockquote></p><p> Customers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.</p><p><blockquote>顾客愿意花高价购买与勒布朗·詹姆斯和迈克尔·乔丹等知名运动员相关的标志性装备。</blockquote></p><p> Despite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临通胀压力，耐克仍继续扩大毛利率，并实现远高于30%的稳健股本回报率。</blockquote></p><p> The company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在日益数字化、直接面向消费者的商业模式中获取其产品的全价。</blockquote></p><p> Management believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.</p><p><blockquote>管理层认为，到2025年，数字销售可能会继续从目前占收入的20%增长到业务的40%左右。价格上涨最早可能在明年开始。</blockquote></p><p> Amazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，利润率可能会继续扩大，即使运营成本随着通货膨胀而上升。</blockquote></p><p> Nike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年迄今为止，耐克股价已上涨约19%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple (AAPL)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果(AAPL)</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b22460a66469a2da0380edd32d454c84\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Vytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>维陶塔斯·基莱蒂斯/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Global demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.</p><p><blockquote>全球对苹果高端硬件的需求正在增长，其高利润苹果服务的采用率也在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Strong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.</p><p><blockquote>强大的品牌形象、用户友好性和各种完全集成的产品是不会很快消失的强大属性。</blockquote></p><p> Customers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.</p><p><blockquote>客户无法生活在苹果生态系统之外。随着通胀飙升，这让这家科技巨头在定价方面有更多的自由。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.</p><p><blockquote>该公司最新的M1芯片将逐渐取代每台Mac中的英特尔CPU，突显了其不断创新的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.</p><p><blockquote>不可否认，苹果有能力将不断上升的成本转嫁给全球消费者群体，而不会大幅损失销量。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.</p><p><blockquote>Warren Buffett允许苹果在Berkshire Hathaway的投资组合中增长到40%，这是有充分理由的：该业务在所有经济周期中都保持利润增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.</p><p><blockquote>苹果今年迄今已上涨约13%，交易价格接近每股150美元。但如果你对目前的水平犹豫不决，一些应用程序可能会给你一份免费的苹果，只是为了注册。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Levi Strauss &amp; Co. (LEVI)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>李维斯公司（LEVI）</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71b31165e275a966ad050139a054c73a\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>dean bertoncelj/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.</p><p><blockquote>作为牛仔布行业的市场领导者，李维斯最近一直在全力以赴。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，其知名品牌和灵活的商业模式使管理层能够在不牺牲定价权的情况下增加营收。</blockquote></p><p> In the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.</p><p><blockquote>最近一个季度，收入增长了41%，调整后毛利率提高了390个基点，达到57.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，管理层早在2020年就开始主动调整通胀定价。</blockquote></p><p> The company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还从24个不同的国家采购原材料。这种供应链多元化为李维斯在危机时期提供了足够的灵活性。</blockquote></p><p> Levi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Levi股价在2021年上涨了30%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ultimate 'forever asset'?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>终极“永久资产”？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5d520eb27cdf18f25a787cd9145eb1b\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"500\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MNStudio/Shutterstock</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特曾经说过，他最喜欢的持有期是永远。</blockquote></p><p> But forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.</p><p><blockquote>但永远是一段很长的时间，由于公司兴衰，通过从不出售股票来增加财富可能不是最好的策略。</blockquote></p><p> But there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.</p><p><blockquote>但可能有一个通胀避风港值得永远持有——美国农田。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> No matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.</p><p><blockquote>无论消费价格攀升得多高或多快，人们仍然需要吃饭。而恰好巴菲特的好朋友比尔·盖茨是美国最大的农田私人所有者。</blockquote></p><p> These days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.</p><p><blockquote>如今，新平台允许你通过入股你选择的农场来投资美国农田。</blockquote></p><p> You’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.</p><p><blockquote>你将从租赁费和农作物销售中获得现金收入。当然，除此之外，你还会从任何长期升值中受益。</blockquote></p><p> <i>This article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>本文仅提供信息，不应被解释为建议。它没有任何形式的担保。</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","LEVI":"李维斯","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","AAPL":"苹果","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"https://moneywise.com/investing/stocks/warren-buffett-inflation-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180020937","content_text":"Inflation is high. You might as well profit from it.\n\nHigh inflation rates in the country have become a serious concern on Wall Street.\nBut fortunately for everyday investors, Berkshire Hathaway chief Warren Buffett has plenty of experience in navigating such an environment.\nBuffett managed a stock portfolio through periods of double-digit inflation rates in the 1970s and has plenty of advice on what to own when consumer prices spike.\nIn a 1981 letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett highlighted two characteristics that make a business well adapted to an inflationary environment: 1) an ability to increase prices easily, and 2) an ability to take on more business without having to spend too much in order to do it.\nIn other words, aim to invest in asset-light businesses with pricing power.\nLet’s take a quick look at three companies that fit that description. One (or all) of them might be worth purchasing with your spare pennies.\nNike (NKE)\nTY Lim/Shutterstock\nNike is a global footwear powerhouse that commands high customer loyalty.\nCustomers are willing to pay top dollar for signature gear associated with high-profile athletes like LeBron James and Michael Jordan.\nDespite inflationary pressures, Nike continues to expand gross margins and post solid returns on equity well above 30%.\nThe company is also capturing the full price of its products in an increasingly digital, direct-to-consumer business model.\nManagement believes digital sales could continue to grow from 20% of revenue currently to about 40% of the business by 2025. And price increases could kick in as early as next year.\nAmazingly, profit margins may keep expanding, even as operating costs rise with inflation.\nNike shares are up about 19% so far in 2021.\nApple (AAPL)\nVytautas Kielaitis/Shutterstock\nGlobal demand for Apple’s premium-priced hardware is growing, as are adoption rates for its high-margin Apple services.\nStrong brand identity, user friendliness, and a wide range of fully integrated products are powerful attributes that aren’t going away any time soon.\nCustomers just can’t afford to live outside the Apple ecosystem. That gives the tech giant more freedom to play with pricing as inflation spikes.\nThe company’s latest M1 chips, which will gradually replace Intel’s CPUs in every single Mac, underscore its commitment to constant innovation.\nApple’s ability to pass rising costs to a global consumer base without significant loss of sales volumes is undeniable.\nWarren Buffett has allowed Apple to grow to 40% of Berkshire Hathaway’s investments portfolio for good reason: The business just keeps growing profits through all economic cycles.\nApple is up about 13% year to date and trades at nearly $150 per share. But if you’re on the fence about jumping in at the current level, some apps might give you a free share of Apple just for signing up.\nLevi Strauss & Co. (LEVI)\ndean bertoncelj/Shutterstock\nA market leader in the denim business, Levi Strauss has been firing on all cylinders of late.\nSpecifically, its well-known brand and a flexible business model have enabled management to grow the top line without sacrificing pricing power.\nIn the most recent quarter, revenue increased 41% while adjusted gross margin improved 390 basis points to 57.5%.\nIn fact, management proactively started adjusting its pricing for inflation back in 2020.\nThe company also sources raw materials from 24 different countries. And that kind of supply chain diversification provides Levi Strauss with plenty of flexibility during times of crisis.\nLevi shares are up more than 30% in 2021.\nThe ultimate 'forever asset'?\nMNStudio/Shutterstock\nWarren Buffett once said that his favorite holding period is forever.\nBut forever is a long time, and since companies rise and fall, growing your wealth by never selling a share may not be the best strategy.\nBut there might be one inflation safe haven that's worth holding forever — U.S. farmland.\nNo matter how high or fast consumer prices climb, people still need to eat. And it just so happens that Buffett’s good friend Bill Gates is America’s largest private owner of farmland.\nThese days, new platforms allow you to invest in U.S. farmland by taking stake in a farm of your choice.\nYou’ll earn cash income from the leasing fees and crop sales. And of course, you’ll benefit from any long-term appreciation on top of that.\nThis article provides information only and should not be construed as advice. It is provided without warranty of any kind.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LEVI":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887285196,"gmtCreate":1632046194715,"gmtModify":1632803143383,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>&nbsp;coming down","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$ coming down","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fd1d94e1bd8b19bdad07a703d233afe","width":"1080","height":"2213"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887285196","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2802,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":853766099,"gmtCreate":1634847702675,"gmtModify":1634847702869,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/41H.SI\">$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$</a>nice","text":"$BLACKGOLD NATURAL RESOURCESLTD(41H.SI)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09326cb866c97d60db920ee503139e56","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853766099","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822652018,"gmtCreate":1634130128692,"gmtModify":1634130128757,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LKCO\">$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$</a>&nbsp;negative&nbsp;net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive&nbsp;about this stock to cause the last few spikes?&nbsp;","text":"$Luokung Technology Corp(LKCO)$ negative net income and low revenue for the past 5 years. What's so attractive about this stock to cause the last few spikes?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede7f267a8801ff40a537599086110cc","width":"1080","height":"3100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822652018","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698506065,"gmtCreate":1640431711010,"gmtModify":1640431711138,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to get better","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>&nbsp;when is it going to get better","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$ when is it going to get better","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fd9085e64fdf9707658d7e82e49617f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698506065","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869403134,"gmtCreate":1632312399228,"gmtModify":1632801342422,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HST.SI\">$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$</a>","text":"$Lion-OCBC Sec HSTECH S$(HST.SI)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d2a1139eaa8128c087baae8a28d5365","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869403134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":827311238,"gmtCreate":1634412745670,"gmtModify":1634412745828,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T13.SI\">$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$</a>too late to buy?&nbsp;","text":"$RH PETROGAS LIMITED(T13.SI)$too late to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6a939d273ee29d51b5ec25c86d64db6","width":"1080","height":"3013"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827311238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826554617,"gmtCreate":1634042190140,"gmtModify":1634042197130,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;still optimistic&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;still optimistic&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ still optimistic","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c017997936944a1dd79676900b8c8d3e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826554617","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840949836,"gmtCreate":1635579563342,"gmtModify":1635579563342,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FOMO","listText":"FOMO","text":"FOMO","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840949836","repostId":"2179245604","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822651174,"gmtCreate":1634129777690,"gmtModify":1634129777690,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;up up up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;up up up","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ up up up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bcce6f8b2dfa3dee9d4040abb2f6560","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822651174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828414135,"gmtCreate":1633935136984,"gmtModify":1633935136984,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$as expected, prices soar today. HUAT ah","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89479b0c48969a1f0056ca85a2b5f17a","width":"1080","height":"2126"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828414135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888557407,"gmtCreate":1631511108609,"gmtModify":1631885568387,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;go up soon.. Like the daily cases&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;go up soon.. Like the daily cases&nbsp;[真香]&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ go up soon.. Like the daily cases [真香]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0248174d64c80d446c8f25bb557070ee","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888557407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":896,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881292475,"gmtCreate":1631339852597,"gmtModify":1631883826049,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;come on Apple!&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;come on Apple!&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ come on Apple!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70babbcee9ebc77e26990c2b79293f35","width":"1080","height":"3100"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881292475","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883446914,"gmtCreate":1631267194938,"gmtModify":1631885568589,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;not bad not bad&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>&nbsp;not bad not bad&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$ not bad not bad","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18b6a4dad1418c694beac3742d45c048","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883446914","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889423243,"gmtCreate":1631171911482,"gmtModify":1631885568644,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>[胜利]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>[胜利]&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$[胜利]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee821c6108c8131410a65dadb8abe61","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889423243","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826555808,"gmtCreate":1634042083753,"gmtModify":1634042191945,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Insurance sector going upside?&nbsp;","listText":"Insurance sector going upside?&nbsp;","text":"Insurance sector going upside?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826555808","repostId":"821224333","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":821224333,"gmtCreate":1633749916922,"gmtModify":1633751613003,"author":{"id":"3579235350711747","authorId":"3579235350711747","name":"财经壹些事","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1fe0218783737b72c056ec92edbe76a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579235350711747","idStr":"3579235350711747"},"themes":[],"title":"保险板块迎久违大涨 四季度多重因素交织","htmlText":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","listText":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","text":"国庆假期后第一个交易日，A股出现难得的由保险板块领涨的行情。截至收盘，保险板块整体上涨超6%，其中中国太保（601601）、中国平安（601318）大涨超7%，中国人寿（601628）、新华保险（601336）上涨5%，中国人保（601319）上涨近3%。今年以来大多时候保险股集体表现不佳，使保险成为市场低估板块之一。股价承压背后，除了资金更偏好新兴产业、周期板块等市场资金因素外，还有自身短期面临压力的因素。从保险业务看，寿险和财险都因转型或改革而增长乏力。上市险企前几年有高增的基础，如今要在推进销售人力“清虚”、做业务“减法”的同时，还要尽量维持保费指标、业务价值的增长，尤其压力不小。今年占据市场半数以上份额的上市系寿险公司，新单业务出现一定下滑，影响了新业务价值等核心指标，令市场忧虑寿险业当前业务价值表现。与此同时，保险业还面临“内卷”化，惠民保等普惠健康险的快速发展，让保险公司过去倚重的重疾险等保障产品面临一定冲击，保障类业务价值下滑。普惠类产品对保险业务的潜在影响多大，目前还难以下定论，至少未来两三年内会处于不确定性状态。从保险公司的投资业务看，华夏幸福（600340）等房企流动性问题让市场对险资配置地产情况产生一定忧虑，这也是压制保险股的潜在因素之一。在前不久的北京辖区上市公司投资者接待日活动中，归于该辖区的国寿、人保、新华保险三大险企，均被问及投资房地产的情况，即体现了这种担忧。不过在这些短期因素困扰的同时，还应该看到，保险业的中长期向好基本趋势未改。从行业大势看，我国经济长期向好的基本面未改，保险深度、保险密度与成熟市场的差距体现出我国保险业仍有很大发展空间。从国内财富管理业看，在居民财富搬家、房住不炒、资产重新配置的趋势下，保险业作为一类稳定收益类资产，会迎来一定新增市场。从国内人口、经济、社会变化趋势看，老龄化、社会治理能力提升的趋势下，保险业在其中仍大有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821224333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":887286412,"gmtCreate":1632045932136,"gmtModify":1632803144955,"author":{"id":"4087893451634750","authorId":"4087893451634750","name":"jetsetyeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93006c438d33d220446e74e4a5e4900d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087893451634750","idStr":"4087893451634750"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","listText":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","text":"Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887286412","repostId":"1157890009","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157890009","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631877276,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157890009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 19:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：重力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157890009","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and sc","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).</li>  <li>The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</li>  <li>Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从苹果（AAPL）的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）和资本边际效率（MROCE）。</li><li>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</li><li>鉴于其极高的ROCE和估值，AAPL仍然是一项可靠的长期投资，我的最终结论是持有评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析苹果（AAPL），重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析业务的两个最重要的指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</p><p><blockquote>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。嗯，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。近年来，回报递减的严重性开始赶上苹果公司的巨头，尽管投资者不必过于惊慌。鉴于其非常高的ROCE和合理的估值，即使考虑到这种递减的回报，AAPL仍然是一项有吸引力的投资。因此，我对这只股票的最终结论是在目前的情况下给予持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的护城河在于其规模和用户的忠诚度。例如，下图显示了2007年至2018年苹果iPhone在全球的年销量（单位：百万）。可以看出，在2018财年，苹果售出了超过2.17亿部iPhone。近年来，iPhone的销量明显趋于稳定，指数增长的日子已经结束。不过，投资者不必过于担心iPhone销量本身的稳定（目前仍是AAPL最赚钱的产品）。投资者需要考察的是，iPhones（或其他AAPL设备）带来的网络效应是否已经达到了可扩展性的极限，这将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f97ee5d85cf7fd736cc8140b9c94c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista 2007年至2018年苹果iPhone全球销量（百万）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值——至少在某种程度上是这样。网络概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在某种程度上。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们网络效应是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看到收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，人们会直觉地期望AAPL提供的服务享受完美的可扩展性的好处。因为AAPL的商业模式受益于自我维持的正反馈循环。一旦企业如上所示用iPhones吸引了足够多的用户，并启动了一个生态系统，网络效应就会发挥作用并自我放大。该网络中更多的用户将导致用户和设备之间更方便的共享和通信、更多的附加值、更准确的推荐、搜索结果等。这些好处将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值；这反过来将吸引更多新用户加入并购买其新设备；这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。</blockquote></p><p> If you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有同样的直觉，那么你会对这篇文章的结果感到惊讶。近年来的MROCE结果实际上表明，收益递减的严重性正在赶上AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对于像AAPL这样的企业，我认为以下项目是实际使用的资本：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、营运资金，包括应付账款、应收账款、存货。这些是其业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.不动产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于AAPL这样的企业来说，这是一项必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。正如所见，在过去的十年里，它能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平。本世纪初曾为450%，自2016年以来近年来仍徘徊在平均152%左右。为了正确看待事情，下图将AAPL的ROCE与其他FAAMG股票进行了比较——这是一组最能利用网络效应的典型股票。可以看出，AAPL仍然在这群超常表现者中获得了最高的竞争ROCE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcbd3c49fa185cf29b726c7651b7e57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a95831d57c9cbc7eeb5307ff0369ee7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有类似重力的作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE是指这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL’s MROCE</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司的MROCE</b></blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。不幸的是，如下图所示，AAPL似乎已经过了可扩展性的临界点，并在最近几年开始看到回报递减。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>此图表显示了AAPL近年来的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> The results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.</p><p><blockquote>下图所示的结果显示，在此阶段，APPL一直保持着明显低于平均ROCE的MROCE。如上所述，近年来ROCE平均为152%，MROCE平均为45%。且差异过大，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明，AAPL已经开始进入收益递减阶段——重力开始迎头赶上。而如果目前的MROCE持续下去，AAPL的ROCE将从目前的水平逐渐下降，收敛到45%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5659d7a6a1d5b6090aa9de2f13acca0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>But no need to panic yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但还没必要惊慌</b></blockquote></p><p> However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，AAPL的ROCE非常高。即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常具有竞争力，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b33ca92602b6d555c2e67e21f4127b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>其次，苹果公司目前的估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都非常合理。从下图可以看出，在目前的价格水平上，AAPL的FW PE约为28.6倍，是FAAMG中最低的。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表还将AAPL根据ROCE调整后的估值与其同行进行了比较。如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，这张图表显示了通过简单地将PE除以ROCE来调整ROCE的估值。正如所见，其调整后的估值在FAAMG中更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最后，橙色条显示了当AAPL的ROCE最终降至45%时调整后的估值。可以看出，即使发生这种情况，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df451c670c1a6f0343418f5914f80b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425296098ce22a839c9dd99de3363e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final thought</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和最后的思考</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了AAPL，重点是其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.</li>  <li>But the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>And second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>Given the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROCE过去平均约为150%以上，是FAAMG同行中最高的。</li><li>但近年来MROCE平均为45%。因此，这一结果表明，收益递减正开始赶上AAPL。MROCE和ROCE之间的差异太大，不可能是由财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。</li></ul><ul><li>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力。</li><li>其次，即使在ROCE减速之后，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</li><li>鉴于上述盈利能力和估值的考虑，我对该股的最终结论是在当前条件下给予持有评级。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：重力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Gravity Is Catching Up With This Juggernaut<blockquote>苹果：重力正在赶上这个庞然大物</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-17 19:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>This article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.</li>  <li>This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).</li>  <li>The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</li>  <li>Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>本文从苹果（AAPL）的盈利可持续性和可扩展性的角度对其进行分析。</li><li>该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率（“ROCE”）和资本边际效率（MROCE）。</li><li>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</li><li>鉴于其极高的ROCE和估值，AAPL仍然是一项可靠的长期投资，我的最终结论是持有评级。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析苹果（AAPL），重点关注其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析业务的两个最重要的指标。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.</p><p><blockquote>结果显示，即使AAPL在过去和现在都获得了天文数字的ROCE，但它正在进入资本回报率递减的不可避免阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率对所有经济活动的作用就像重力一样。嗯，收益递减对所有经济活动也有引力作用，如果不是更大的话。近年来，回报递减的严重性开始赶上苹果公司的巨头，尽管投资者不必过于惊慌。鉴于其非常高的ROCE和合理的估值，即使考虑到这种递减的回报，AAPL仍然是一项有吸引力的投资。因此，我对这只股票的最终结论是在目前的情况下给予持有评级。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and the network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河与网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL的护城河在于其规模和用户的忠诚度。例如，下图显示了2007年至2018年苹果iPhone在全球的年销量（单位：百万）。可以看出，在2018财年，苹果售出了超过2.17亿部iPhone。近年来，iPhone的销量明显趋于稳定，指数增长的日子已经结束。不过，投资者不必过于担心iPhone销量本身的稳定（目前仍是AAPL最赚钱的产品）。投资者需要考察的是，iPhones（或其他AAPL设备）带来的网络效应是否已经达到了可扩展性的极限，这将在下面讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f97ee5d85cf7fd736cc8140b9c94c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista 2007年至2018年苹果iPhone全球销量（百万）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).</p><p><blockquote>网络效应是指某些产品或服务的价值随着更多人使用而增加。换句话说，某些网络随着规模的扩大而变得越来越有价值——至少在某种程度上是这样。网络概念没有什么新意。铁路、电话和传真机都是如此。所有这些例子都有这些共同的特征：a）网络变得越大，它就变得越有价值（当连接城市A和B的铁路的一段也连接到连接其他城市的其他铁路时，这段铁路的价值要高得多）；B）网络越大，交换成本就越高（如果每个人都使用传真机，而你不想使用传真机，祝你好运）。</blockquote></p><p> Again, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.</p><p><blockquote>同样，在某种程度上。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始减少。在铁路的例子中，如果已经建造了足够多的铁路来连接所有人口密度高的城市，那么现在建造下一段铁路的回报将会减少。在传真机的例子中，如果每个办公室都已经有一台传真机，那么在每个办公室增加第二台传真机也会减少回报。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.</p><p><blockquote>因此，作为投资者，我们不仅要考察ROCE，同样重要的是要考察边际收益。因为边际回报告诉我们网络效应是否仍处于可扩展阶段，或者业务是否已经过了可扩展性的临界点，开始出现收益递减。换句话说，MROCE让我们看到收益递减的严重性是否已经赶上了。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，人们会直觉地期望AAPL提供的服务享受完美的可扩展性的好处。因为AAPL的商业模式受益于自我维持的正反馈循环。一旦企业如上所示用iPhones吸引了足够多的用户，并启动了一个生态系统，网络效应就会发挥作用并自我放大。该网络中更多的用户将导致用户和设备之间更方便的共享和通信、更多的附加值、更准确的推荐、搜索结果等。这些好处将使网络对其用户和客户更好、更有价值；这反过来将吸引更多新用户加入并购买其新设备；这将再次导致更多的用户和更大的网络。</blockquote></p><p> If you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果你有同样的直觉，那么你会对这篇文章的结果感到惊讶。近年来的MROCE结果实际上表明，收益递减的严重性正在赶上AAPL。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Return on capital employed (“ROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已动用资本回报率（“ROCE”）</b></blockquote></p><p> ROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:</p><p><blockquote>ROCE代表已用资本回报率。请注意，ROCE不同于股本回报率（在我看来更基本、更重要）。ROCE考虑实际使用的资本回报，因此可以深入了解企业如何有效地利用其资本赚取利润。对于像AAPL这样的企业，我认为以下项目是实际使用的资本：</blockquote></p><p> 1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.</p><p><blockquote>1、营运资金，包括应付账款、应收账款、存货。这些是其业务日常运营所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.</p><p><blockquote>2.不动产、厂房和设备总额。这些是实际开展业务和制造产品所需的资本。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).</p><p><blockquote>3.研发费用（对于AAPL这样的企业来说，这是一项必不可少的费用）。</blockquote></p><p> Based on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，AAPL过去十年的ROCE如下所示。正如所见，在过去的十年里，它能够保持天文数字的ROCE水平。本世纪初曾为450%，自2016年以来近年来仍徘徊在平均152%左右。为了正确看待事情，下图将AAPL的ROCE与其他FAAMG股票进行了比较——这是一组最能利用网络效应的典型股票。可以看出，AAPL仍然在这群超常表现者中获得了最高的竞争ROCE。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bcbd3c49fa185cf29b726c7651b7e57\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a95831d57c9cbc7eeb5307ff0369ee7a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>边际资本回报率（“边际资本回报率”）简介</b></blockquote></p><p> In addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>除了ROCE之外，一个同样重要的概念是边际资本回报率（“MROCE”）。对我来说，ROCE和MROCE是分析企业最重要的两个指标。它们揭示了盈利能力这个核心问题的最基本的两个方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> A bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.</p><p><blockquote>为不熟悉这个概念的读者提供一点背景和介绍。对于已经熟悉这个概念的读者来说，一定要跳过这一部分。据我所知，传奇经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯首先明确表达了这个概念，尽管在他之前的人已经观察和思考了一段时间。这个概念试图捕捉的是经济活动中的一个基本规律：收益递减规律。沃伦·巴菲特喜欢说，利率就像重力一样影响所有经济活动。嗯，只要人性不发生任何根本性的变化，收益递减对所有经济活动也有类似重力的作用，如果不是更大的话。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.</p><p><blockquote>下一个图表说明了这个概念。只要股东寻求利润，上市企业就会首先将资金投资于回报率最高的项目（即，先摘最低的苹果或先获得最大的回报）。因此，第一批可用资源的投资回报率很高——企业可能确定的最高回报率。第二批资金将不得不以较低的回报率进行投资，因为最好的想法已经被第一批资源采纳了，等等。最后一批投入的钱可能会获得仅高于资金成本的回报率。最后，最终结果是如图所示下降的MROCE曲线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cd59ec1a6da411c303c2bbccaf2425\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.</p><p><blockquote>我们通常谈论和公司报告的ROCE是指这条曲线的平均值——平均所有批次投资的回报。显然，平均值本身就是非常有用的信息。它告诉我们企业到目前为止将资源转化为利润的效率——但它的局限性在于，它只告诉我们到目前为止已经投入的资源的效率。对投资者同样重要的是MROCE，它告诉我们下一批资源投入时，业务会产生多少增量利润。</blockquote></p><p> For investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，梦想投资的企业是拥有平坦MROCE曲线的企业，如蓝色实线所示。这将是一个完全可扩展的业务。每投入一批资源都能获得持续稳定利润的企业。然而，这样的生意真的只是梦中生意。我之前提到过，收益递减对所有经济活动都有引力作用——因为它们确实如此。从来没有一个企业（至少在人类历史上没有）能够在保持资本回报率的同时保持增长。在某些时候，重力总是赶上来，回报开始下降（如蓝色虚线所示）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>AAPL’s MROCE</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司的MROCE</b></blockquote></p><p> So for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>因此，对于投资者来说，下一个最好的交易是投资a）具有高且稳定的ROCE，B）仍处于可扩展阶段（回报递减的严重性尚未赶上）的企业。不幸的是，如下图所示，AAPL似乎已经过了可扩展性的临界点，并在最近几年开始看到回报递减。</blockquote></p><p> This chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>此图表显示了AAPL近年来的MROCE和ROCE。ROCE数据与上一节所示相同。通过以下步骤估计MROCE数据。首先，计算每年使用的资本。其次，每年计算收益。第三，计算每年使用的资本增量。同样，还计算了同比增量收益。最后，计算增量收益和增量资本使用之间的比率以近似MROCE。在增量收益或所用资本出现大幅波动的年份，采用多年运行平均值来平滑波动。</blockquote></p><p> The results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.</p><p><blockquote>下图所示的结果显示，在此阶段，APPL一直保持着明显低于平均ROCE的MROCE。如上所述，近年来ROCE平均为152%，MROCE平均为45%。且差异过大，不可能是财务数据的不确定性和四舍五入误差造成的。所以这个结果表明，AAPL已经开始进入收益递减阶段——重力开始迎头赶上。而如果目前的MROCE持续下去，AAPL的ROCE将从目前的水平逐渐下降，收敛到45%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5659d7a6a1d5b6090aa9de2f13acca0f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>But no need to panic yet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>但还没必要惊慌</b></blockquote></p><p> However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.</p><p><blockquote>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，AAPL的ROCE非常高。即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常具有竞争力，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b33ca92602b6d555c2e67e21f4127b3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>其次，苹果公司目前的估值无论是绝对值还是相对值都非常合理。从下图可以看出，在目前的价格水平上，AAPL的FW PE约为28.6倍，是FAAMG中最低的。</blockquote></p><p> The next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表还将AAPL根据ROCE调整后的估值与其同行进行了比较。如果不根据业务质量进行调整，孤立地讨论估值是没有意义的。因此，这张图表显示了通过简单地将PE除以ROCE来调整ROCE的估值。正如所见，其调整后的估值在FAAMG中更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> And finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</p><p><blockquote>最后，橙色条显示了当AAPL的ROCE最终降至45%时调整后的估值。可以看出，即使发生这种情况，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2df451c670c1a6f0343418f5914f80b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425296098ce22a839c9dd99de3363e32\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"326\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: author and Seeking Alpha data.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者和Seeking Alpha数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion and final thought</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论和最后的思考</b></blockquote></p><p> This article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.</p><p><blockquote>本文分析了AAPL，重点是其利润可持续性和可扩展性。该分析考察了利润可持续性最重要的两个方面：已用资本回报率(“ROCE”)和已用资本边际回报率(“MROCE”)。它们揭示了利润可持续性这一核心问题的两个最基本的方面。ROCE告诉我们该业务迄今为止的盈利能力。MROCE深入了解了盈利能力可能走向的方向。</blockquote></p><p> The results show that:</p><p><blockquote>结果表明：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.</li>  <li>But the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>However, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>And second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.</li>  <li>Given the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ROCE过去平均约为150%以上，是FAAMG同行中最高的。</li><li>但近年来MROCE平均为45%。因此，这一结果表明，收益递减正开始赶上AAPL。MROCE和ROCE之间的差异太大，不可能是由财务数据的不确定性和舍入误差造成的。</li></ul><ul><li>然而，苹果公司的投资者还不必恐慌——至少有两个原因。首先，即使其高ROCE放缓并最终收敛至45%，与其他FAAMG股票相比，其盈利水平仍然非常有竞争力。</li><li>其次，即使在ROCE减速之后，与其他FAAMG股票相比，AAPL经ROCE调整后的估值仍然相当合理。</li><li>鉴于上述盈利能力和估值的考虑，我对该股的最终结论是在当前条件下给予持有评级。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455586-apple-gravity-is-catching-up-on-this-juggernaut\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455586-apple-gravity-is-catching-up-on-this-juggernaut","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157890009","content_text":"Summary\n\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL) from the perspective of its profit sustainability and scalability.\nThis analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and the marginal efficiency of capital (MROCE).\nThe results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.\nGiven its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its valuation, AAPL still represents a solid long-term investment, and my final verdict is a hold rating.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment thesis\nThis article analyzes Apple (AAPL), with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the two most important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that even though AAPL earns an astronomical ROCE in the past and currently, it is entering the inevitable stage of diminishing return on capital.\nWarren Buffett likes to say that interest rates act like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so. And the gravity of diminishing returns is beginning to catch up with the AAPL juggernaut in recent years, although investors do not have to be too alarmed. Given its remarkably high ROCE to start with and its reasonable valuation, AAPL still represents an attractive investment even with such diminishing returns considered. And as such, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.\nThe moat and the network effects\nAAPL’s moat is in its scale and the loyalty of its users. As an example, the following chart shows the annual unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions). As can be seen, in their 2018 fiscal year, Apple sold more than 217 million iPhones. The iPhone sales have obviously stabilized over recent years and the days of exponential growth are over. However, investors do not have to be too concerned about the stabilization of the iPhone sales per se (which is currently still AAPL’s most profitable product). What investors need to examine is if the network effects brought about by the iPhones (or other AAPL devices) have reached their limit of scalability, as to be discussed next.\nSource: Unit sales of the Apple iPhone worldwide from 2007 to 2018 (in millions) from Statista.\nThe network effects refer to the fact that the value of certain products or services increases as more people use them. In other words, certain networks become increasingly more valuable as they become bigger – at least to a certain point. There is nothing new about the network concept. It was true of railways, telephones, and fax machines. All these examples share these common traits: A) the larger the network becomes, the more valuable it becomes (one segment of a railway linking city A and B is far more valuable when this segment also links to other railways linking other cities); and B) the larger the network becomes, the higher the switching cost (if everyone uses a fax machine and you do not want to use one, good luck to you).\nAgain, up to a certain point. At some point, gravity always catches up, and return begins to diminish. In the railway example, if enough railways have already been built to link all cities with high population density, building the next segment would suffer a diminished return now. In the fax machine example, if every office already has one, adding a second one to each office would also suffer a diminished return.\nTherefore, as investors, we do not only need to examine the ROCE, but also equally importantly, to examine the marginal return. Because the marginal return tells us if the network effects are still in a scalable stage, or if the business has already passed the tipping point of scalability and begins to see a diminishing return. In other words, MROCE lets us see if the gravity of diminishing return has caught up yet or not.\nIn theory, one would intuitively expect the services AAPL provides to enjoy the benefit of perfect scalability. Because AAPL’s business model benefits from a self-sustaining positive feedback loop. Once the business captured enough users with iPhones as shown above and an ecosystem initiated, the network effect would kick in and amplify itself. More users in this network will lead to more convenient sharing and communication among users and devices, more added values, more accurate recommendations, search results, et al. Such benefits will make the network even better and more valuable for its users and clients; which will, in turn, attract more new users to join and purchase its new devices; which again will lead back to more users and an even larger network.\nIf you share the same intuition, then you are in for a surprise by the results in this article. The MROCE results in recent years actually show that the gravity of diminishing return is catching up on AAPL.\nReturn on capital employed (“ROCE”)\nROCE stands for the return on capital employed. Note that ROCE is different from the return on equity (and more fundamental and important in my view). ROCE considers the return of capital ACTUALLY employed, and therefore provides insight into how effectively the business uses its capital to earn a profit. For businesses like AAPL, I consider the following items capital actually employed:\n1. Working capital, including payables, receivables, inventory. These are the capitals required for the daily operation of their businesses.\n2. Gross Property, Plant, and Equipment. These are the capitals required to actually conduct business and manufacture their products.\n3. Research and development expenses (an essential expense for a business like AAPL).\nBased on the above considerations, the ROCE of AAPL over the past decade is shown below. As seen, it was able to maintain an astronomical level of ROCE over the past decade. It used to be 450% early in the decade and still hovers around an average of 152% in recent years since 2016. To put things in perspective, the next chart compares AAPL’s ROCE against the other FAAMG stocks – a group of exemplary stocks that best exploit the network effects. As can be seen, AAPL still earns the highest competitive ROCE among this group of overachievers.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha.\nIntroduction to marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”)\nIn addition to ROCE, an equally important concept is the marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). To me, ROCE and MROCE are the most two important metrics for analyzing a business. They reveal the most fundamental two aspects of the same central issue of profitability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is SO FAR. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nA bit of background and introduction for readers who are new to the concept. For readers familiar with the concept already, definitely skip this section. From what I’ve learned, the legendary economist John Maynard Keynes first explicitly expressed this concept, although people before him have observed and thought about it for some time already. What the concept tries to capture is a basic law in economic activities: the law of diminishing returns. Warren Buffett likes to say that interest rate acts like gravity on all economic activities. Well, diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities too, if not more so, as long as human nature does not change in any fundamental way.\nThe next chart illustrates the concept. As long as shareholders are seeking profit, a public business will first invest its money at projects with the highest possible rate of return (i.e., picking the lowest hanging apples first or getting the most bang for the buck first). Therefore, the first batch of available resources is invested at a high rate of return – the highest the business can possibly identify. The second batch of money will have to be invested at a somewhat lower rate of return since the best ideas have been taken by the first batch of resources already, and so on. The last batch of money invested may earn a rate of return that is only above the cost of capital. And finally, the end result is a declining MROCE curve as shown.\nSource: author\nThe ROCE we normally talk about and companies report refers to the average of this curve – averaging the return on all batches of money invested. Obviously, the average is very useful information by itself. It tells us how efficiently the business has been converting resources into profit so far – but its limitation is that it only tells us the efficiency of the resources that have already been invested so far. What is of equal importance to investors is the MROCE, which tells us how much incremental profit the business will generate when the next batch of resources is invested.\nFor investors, a dream business to invest in would be a business that enjoys a flat MROCE curve as shown by the solid blue line. This would be a business that is perfectly scalable. A business that earns a consistent and stable profit for every batch of resources invested. However, such a business is really only a dream business. I mentioned earlier that diminishing returns act like gravity on all economic activities - because they really do. There has been no business (at least not so far in human history) that can keep growing while at the same time maintaining a constant return on capital. At some point, gravity always catches up and the return begins to decline (as shown by the dashed blue line).\nAAPL’s MROCE\nSo for investors, the next best deal is to invest in a business that A) has a high and stable ROCE, and B) that is still in the scalable stage (the gravity of diminishing return has not caught up yet). Unfortunately, as shown in the next chart, AAPL seems to have passed the tipping point of scalability and begin to see a diminishing return in recent years.\nThis chart shows the MROCE and ROCE for AAPL over recent years. The ROCE data are the same as those shown in the previous section. The MROCE data are estimated by the following steps. First, the capital employed was calculated for each year. Second, the earnings were calculated each year. Third, then the incremental of capital employed year over year was calculated. Similarly, the incremental earnings year over year were also calculated. And finally, the ratio between the incremental earnings and incremental capital employed was calculated to approximate the MROCE. During years when there were large fluctuations in either the incremental earnings or the capital employed, a multi-year running average was taken to smooth the fluctuations.\nThe results shown in the following chart show that at this stage, APPL has been maintaining an MROCE that is noticeably below the average ROCE. As seen, the ROCE has been on average 152% in recent years as aforementioned, and the MROCE has been on average 45%. And the difference is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors. So this result shows that AAPL has started entering a stage of diminishing return - gravity is beginning to catch up. And if the current MROCE continues, AAPL’s ROCE will gradually decline from its current level and converge to 45%.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nBut no need to panic yet\nHowever, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. Firstly, AAPL has a very high ROCE to start with. And even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks as seen from the following chart.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nSecondly, AAPL currently features a very reasonable valuation, both in absolute terms and especially in relative terms. As can be seen from the following chart, at its current price levels, AAPL’s FW PE is about 28.6x, the lowest among the FAAMG pack.\nThe next chart also compares AAPL valuation adjusted for its ROCE with its peers. It is not that meaningful to discuss valuation in isolation and without adjusting for the quality of the business. Therefore, this chart shows the valuation adjusted for ROCE by simply dividing the PE by the ROCE. As seen, its adjusted valuation is even more attractive among the FAAMG pack.\nAnd finally, the orange bar shows the adjusted valuation when AAPL’s ROCE eventually deaccelerates to 45%. As can be seen, even when this happens, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nSource: author and Seeking Alpha data.\nConclusion and final thought\nThis article analyzes AAPL, with a focus on its profit sustainability and scalability. This analysis examines the most two important aspects of profit Sustainability: return on capital employed (“ROCE”) and marginal return on capital employed (“MROCE”). They reveal the two most fundamental aspects of the same central issue of profit sustainability. ROCE tells us how profitable the business has been or is so far. And MROCE sheds insights into which direction the profitability is likely to go.\nThe results show that:\n\nThe ROCE has been on average about 150+% in the past and has been the highest among its FAAMG peers.\nBut the MROCE has been on average 45% in recent years. So this result suggests that the diminishing return is beginning to catch up on AAPL. The difference between MROCE and ROCE is too large to be caused by the uncertainties in the financial data and rounding off errors.\n\n\nHowever, AAPL investors do not have to panic yet - for two reasons at least. First, even when its high ROCE deaccelerates and eventually converges to 45%, it is still a very competitive level of profitability compared to the other FAAMG stocks.\nAnd second, even after the ROCE decelerates, AAPL’s ROCE-adjusted valuated is still quite reasonable compared to the rest of the FAAMG stocks.\nGiven the above considerations of profitability and valuation, my final verdict on this stock is a hold rating under its current conditions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}