nanachan的个人主页 - 老虎社区

nanachan

nanachan

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

11关注

4粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-08-26

Buy #sndl cheaper

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-30

Ok//@nanachan: Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

Ok

3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near

2021-07-20

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-19

Ok

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual

2021-07-16

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3582191552439715","uuid":"3582191552439715","gmtCreate":1619547345465,"gmtModify":1625668023137,"name":"nanachan","pinyin":"nanachan","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":4,"headSize":11,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.17","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":810215646,"gmtCreate":1629980310985,"gmtModify":1631891246317,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy #sndl cheaper","listText":"Buy #sndl cheaper","text":"Buy #sndl cheaper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810215646","repostId":"2162960770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806180906,"gmtCreate":1627640859805,"gmtModify":1631891246324,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582191552439715\">@nanachan</a>: Ok","listText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582191552439715\">@nanachan</a>: Ok","text":"Ok//@nanachan: Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806180906","repostId":"1112457513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175749529,"gmtCreate":1627050415761,"gmtModify":1631891246337,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175749529","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153983997","pubTimestamp":1627045860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153983997?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153983997","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Maybe the market is about to crash, and maybe it isn't. These stocks look like good picks either way.","content":"<p>Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors that a stock market crash could be on the way.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest stock market bears, Harry Dent Jr., who predicted the dot.com bubble collapsing, even thinks that a market meltdown is likely within the next three months. Is all of the pessimism warranted? Maybe, maybe not.</p>\n<p>If you're leery about what's around the corner, here are three stocks to buy if a market crash is coming soon. And the great news about these stocks is that they're solid picks even if it doesn't happen.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3105d12ec8b203883b5e91a709172e8b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images.</p>\n<h3>BioNTech</h3>\n<p>I personally don't think a stock market crash is just around the corner. If <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is, though, I suspect the cause will be the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and sky-high market valuations. Assuming I'm right,&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b> (NASDAQ:BNTX) should soar if the market crashes.</p>\n<p>A massive market sell-off due to COVID-19 worries would almost certainly light a fire beneath the stocks of the leading vaccine makers. My view is that BioNTech would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the biggest winners in the group.</p>\n<p>BioNTech and its partner <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b> (NYSE:PFE) are already moving forward with plans to test a vaccine that specifically targets the delta variant. That gives the companies a head start. BioNTech is by far the smallest of the companies with COVID-19 vaccines already on the market, which makes its shares more likely to jump higher on a positive catalyst. It's also easily the cheapest of these vaccine stocks, based on forward earnings multiples.</p>\n<p>What if there isn't an imminent market crash? BioNTech is still set to rake in billions of dollars with sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company will almost certainly use its growing cash stockpile to invest in expanding its pipeline. I think that BioNTech will be a winner over the long term, regardless of what happens over the short term.</p>\n<h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">Dollar General</a></h3>\n<p>I've maintained for a long time that&nbsp;<b>Dollar <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGC\">General</a></b> (NYSE:DG) is one of the best stocks to own during a market downturn. That view seemed to be confirmed during the big market meltdown last year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e75aa27d2d22b4296c80687da5be97\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DG data by YCharts.</p>\n<p>Shares of Dollar General fell at first, but not nearly as much as most stocks did. Dollar General stock also rebounded much more quickly and trounced the overall market's return throughout the rest of the year.</p>\n<p>During uncertain times, consumers tighten their purse strings. That makes discount retailers such as Dollar General more attractive than ever.</p>\n<p>Even when the overall market performs well, though, Dollar General should still be able to grow. As a case in point, the company's shares delivered more than double the gain that the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> index did in the five years leading up to 2020 when the market was roaring.</p>\n<p>I think that Dollar General will be able to continue to beat the market. It's moving forward with an aggressive expansion strategy. The company is also undertaking a major initiative to \"establish itself as a health destination.\" While Dollar General didn't provide many details on exactly what its plans are, moving more into healthcare sounds like a smart move to me.</p>\n<h3>Viatris</h3>\n<p>There are at least two reasons why a given stock might hold up well during a big market sell-off. One is that its underlying business isn't impacted much by the reason behind the broader plunge. Another is that the stock is so cheap that investors scoop up shares if it falls much below its existing price. My take is that&nbsp;<b>Viatris</b> (NASDAQ:VTRS) qualifies on both of these criteria.</p>\n<p>Viatris specializes in biosimilars and generic drugs. Patients need these drugs, regardless of what the stock market does. The drugs are also less expensive than branded prescription drugs.</p>\n<p>The stock is irrefutably dirt cheap. Viatris' shares trade at a little over four times expected earnings. It's unlikely that the stock is going to move much lower because it would simply be too much of a steal for investors to ignore.</p>\n<p>Granted, Viatris probably won't keep up with the overall stock market's performance if the current uptrend continues. However, the company's dividend is attractive. And over the next several years, Viatris should achieve synergies resulting from the merger of Pfizer's Upjohn unit and Mylan, as well as launch new products that should drive growth.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-23 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","VTRS":"Viatris Inc.","DG":"美国达乐公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153983997","content_text":"Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors that a stock market crash could be on the way.\nOne of the biggest stock market bears, Harry Dent Jr., who predicted the dot.com bubble collapsing, even thinks that a market meltdown is likely within the next three months. Is all of the pessimism warranted? Maybe, maybe not.\nIf you're leery about what's around the corner, here are three stocks to buy if a market crash is coming soon. And the great news about these stocks is that they're solid picks even if it doesn't happen.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nBioNTech\nI personally don't think a stock market crash is just around the corner. If one is, though, I suspect the cause will be the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and sky-high market valuations. Assuming I'm right, BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) should soar if the market crashes.\nA massive market sell-off due to COVID-19 worries would almost certainly light a fire beneath the stocks of the leading vaccine makers. My view is that BioNTech would be one of the biggest winners in the group.\nBioNTech and its partner Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) are already moving forward with plans to test a vaccine that specifically targets the delta variant. That gives the companies a head start. BioNTech is by far the smallest of the companies with COVID-19 vaccines already on the market, which makes its shares more likely to jump higher on a positive catalyst. It's also easily the cheapest of these vaccine stocks, based on forward earnings multiples.\nWhat if there isn't an imminent market crash? BioNTech is still set to rake in billions of dollars with sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company will almost certainly use its growing cash stockpile to invest in expanding its pipeline. I think that BioNTech will be a winner over the long term, regardless of what happens over the short term.\nDollar General\nI've maintained for a long time that Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is one of the best stocks to own during a market downturn. That view seemed to be confirmed during the big market meltdown last year.\n\nDG data by YCharts.\nShares of Dollar General fell at first, but not nearly as much as most stocks did. Dollar General stock also rebounded much more quickly and trounced the overall market's return throughout the rest of the year.\nDuring uncertain times, consumers tighten their purse strings. That makes discount retailers such as Dollar General more attractive than ever.\nEven when the overall market performs well, though, Dollar General should still be able to grow. As a case in point, the company's shares delivered more than double the gain that the S&P 500 index did in the five years leading up to 2020 when the market was roaring.\nI think that Dollar General will be able to continue to beat the market. It's moving forward with an aggressive expansion strategy. The company is also undertaking a major initiative to \"establish itself as a health destination.\" While Dollar General didn't provide many details on exactly what its plans are, moving more into healthcare sounds like a smart move to me.\nViatris\nThere are at least two reasons why a given stock might hold up well during a big market sell-off. One is that its underlying business isn't impacted much by the reason behind the broader plunge. Another is that the stock is so cheap that investors scoop up shares if it falls much below its existing price. My take is that Viatris (NASDAQ:VTRS) qualifies on both of these criteria.\nViatris specializes in biosimilars and generic drugs. Patients need these drugs, regardless of what the stock market does. The drugs are also less expensive than branded prescription drugs.\nThe stock is irrefutably dirt cheap. Viatris' shares trade at a little over four times expected earnings. It's unlikely that the stock is going to move much lower because it would simply be too much of a steal for investors to ignore.\nGranted, Viatris probably won't keep up with the overall stock market's performance if the current uptrend continues. However, the company's dividend is attractive. And over the next several years, Viatris should achieve synergies resulting from the merger of Pfizer's Upjohn unit and Mylan, as well as launch new products that should drive growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178369272,"gmtCreate":1626788568896,"gmtModify":1631891246349,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178369272","repostId":"1112457513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171313988,"gmtCreate":1626706001344,"gmtModify":1631891246358,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171313988","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170931216,"gmtCreate":1626398838035,"gmtModify":1631891246370,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170931216","repostId":"1131457770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175749529,"gmtCreate":1627050415761,"gmtModify":1631891246337,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175749529","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153983997","pubTimestamp":1627045860,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153983997?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153983997","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Maybe the market is about to crash, and maybe it isn't. These stocks look like good picks either way.","content":"<p>Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors that a stock market crash could be on the way.</p>\n<p>One of the biggest stock market bears, Harry Dent Jr., who predicted the dot.com bubble collapsing, even thinks that a market meltdown is likely within the next three months. Is all of the pessimism warranted? Maybe, maybe not.</p>\n<p>If you're leery about what's around the corner, here are three stocks to buy if a market crash is coming soon. And the great news about these stocks is that they're solid picks even if it doesn't happen.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3105d12ec8b203883b5e91a709172e8b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Image source: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GTY\">Getty</a> Images.</p>\n<h3>BioNTech</h3>\n<p>I personally don't think a stock market crash is just around the corner. If <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> is, though, I suspect the cause will be the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and sky-high market valuations. Assuming I'm right,&nbsp;<b>BioNTech</b> (NASDAQ:BNTX) should soar if the market crashes.</p>\n<p>A massive market sell-off due to COVID-19 worries would almost certainly light a fire beneath the stocks of the leading vaccine makers. My view is that BioNTech would be <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the biggest winners in the group.</p>\n<p>BioNTech and its partner <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b> (NYSE:PFE) are already moving forward with plans to test a vaccine that specifically targets the delta variant. That gives the companies a head start. BioNTech is by far the smallest of the companies with COVID-19 vaccines already on the market, which makes its shares more likely to jump higher on a positive catalyst. It's also easily the cheapest of these vaccine stocks, based on forward earnings multiples.</p>\n<p>What if there isn't an imminent market crash? BioNTech is still set to rake in billions of dollars with sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company will almost certainly use its growing cash stockpile to invest in expanding its pipeline. I think that BioNTech will be a winner over the long term, regardless of what happens over the short term.</p>\n<h3><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DG\">Dollar General</a></h3>\n<p>I've maintained for a long time that&nbsp;<b>Dollar <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGC\">General</a></b> (NYSE:DG) is one of the best stocks to own during a market downturn. That view seemed to be confirmed during the big market meltdown last year.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e75aa27d2d22b4296c80687da5be97\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>DG data by YCharts.</p>\n<p>Shares of Dollar General fell at first, but not nearly as much as most stocks did. Dollar General stock also rebounded much more quickly and trounced the overall market's return throughout the rest of the year.</p>\n<p>During uncertain times, consumers tighten their purse strings. That makes discount retailers such as Dollar General more attractive than ever.</p>\n<p>Even when the overall market performs well, though, Dollar General should still be able to grow. As a case in point, the company's shares delivered more than double the gain that the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> index did in the five years leading up to 2020 when the market was roaring.</p>\n<p>I think that Dollar General will be able to continue to beat the market. It's moving forward with an aggressive expansion strategy. The company is also undertaking a major initiative to \"establish itself as a health destination.\" While Dollar General didn't provide many details on exactly what its plans are, moving more into healthcare sounds like a smart move to me.</p>\n<h3>Viatris</h3>\n<p>There are at least two reasons why a given stock might hold up well during a big market sell-off. One is that its underlying business isn't impacted much by the reason behind the broader plunge. Another is that the stock is so cheap that investors scoop up shares if it falls much below its existing price. My take is that&nbsp;<b>Viatris</b> (NASDAQ:VTRS) qualifies on both of these criteria.</p>\n<p>Viatris specializes in biosimilars and generic drugs. Patients need these drugs, regardless of what the stock market does. The drugs are also less expensive than branded prescription drugs.</p>\n<p>The stock is irrefutably dirt cheap. Viatris' shares trade at a little over four times expected earnings. It's unlikely that the stock is going to move much lower because it would simply be too much of a steal for investors to ignore.</p>\n<p>Granted, Viatris probably won't keep up with the overall stock market's performance if the current uptrend continues. However, the company's dividend is attractive. And over the next several years, Viatris should achieve synergies resulting from the merger of Pfizer's Upjohn unit and Mylan, as well as launch new products that should drive growth.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks to Buy Whether or Not a Market Crash Is Near\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-23 21:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BNTX":"BioNTech SE","VTRS":"Viatris Inc.","DG":"美国达乐公司"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/23/3-stocks-to-buy-whether-or-not-a-market-crash-is-n/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153983997","content_text":"Rising COVID-19 cases. Concerns about the highly contagious delta variant. The possibility of another housing bubble bursting. These are some of the reasons why worries are increasing among investors that a stock market crash could be on the way.\nOne of the biggest stock market bears, Harry Dent Jr., who predicted the dot.com bubble collapsing, even thinks that a market meltdown is likely within the next three months. Is all of the pessimism warranted? Maybe, maybe not.\nIf you're leery about what's around the corner, here are three stocks to buy if a market crash is coming soon. And the great news about these stocks is that they're solid picks even if it doesn't happen.\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nBioNTech\nI personally don't think a stock market crash is just around the corner. If one is, though, I suspect the cause will be the combination of the COVID-19 pandemic and sky-high market valuations. Assuming I'm right, BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) should soar if the market crashes.\nA massive market sell-off due to COVID-19 worries would almost certainly light a fire beneath the stocks of the leading vaccine makers. My view is that BioNTech would be one of the biggest winners in the group.\nBioNTech and its partner Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) are already moving forward with plans to test a vaccine that specifically targets the delta variant. That gives the companies a head start. BioNTech is by far the smallest of the companies with COVID-19 vaccines already on the market, which makes its shares more likely to jump higher on a positive catalyst. It's also easily the cheapest of these vaccine stocks, based on forward earnings multiples.\nWhat if there isn't an imminent market crash? BioNTech is still set to rake in billions of dollars with sales of its COVID-19 vaccine. The company will almost certainly use its growing cash stockpile to invest in expanding its pipeline. I think that BioNTech will be a winner over the long term, regardless of what happens over the short term.\nDollar General\nI've maintained for a long time that Dollar General (NYSE:DG) is one of the best stocks to own during a market downturn. That view seemed to be confirmed during the big market meltdown last year.\n\nDG data by YCharts.\nShares of Dollar General fell at first, but not nearly as much as most stocks did. Dollar General stock also rebounded much more quickly and trounced the overall market's return throughout the rest of the year.\nDuring uncertain times, consumers tighten their purse strings. That makes discount retailers such as Dollar General more attractive than ever.\nEven when the overall market performs well, though, Dollar General should still be able to grow. As a case in point, the company's shares delivered more than double the gain that the S&P 500 index did in the five years leading up to 2020 when the market was roaring.\nI think that Dollar General will be able to continue to beat the market. It's moving forward with an aggressive expansion strategy. The company is also undertaking a major initiative to \"establish itself as a health destination.\" While Dollar General didn't provide many details on exactly what its plans are, moving more into healthcare sounds like a smart move to me.\nViatris\nThere are at least two reasons why a given stock might hold up well during a big market sell-off. One is that its underlying business isn't impacted much by the reason behind the broader plunge. Another is that the stock is so cheap that investors scoop up shares if it falls much below its existing price. My take is that Viatris (NASDAQ:VTRS) qualifies on both of these criteria.\nViatris specializes in biosimilars and generic drugs. Patients need these drugs, regardless of what the stock market does. The drugs are also less expensive than branded prescription drugs.\nThe stock is irrefutably dirt cheap. Viatris' shares trade at a little over four times expected earnings. It's unlikely that the stock is going to move much lower because it would simply be too much of a steal for investors to ignore.\nGranted, Viatris probably won't keep up with the overall stock market's performance if the current uptrend continues. However, the company's dividend is attractive. And over the next several years, Viatris should achieve synergies resulting from the merger of Pfizer's Upjohn unit and Mylan, as well as launch new products that should drive growth.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":262,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806180906,"gmtCreate":1627640859805,"gmtModify":1631891246324,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582191552439715\">@nanachan</a>: Ok","listText":"Ok//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3582191552439715\">@nanachan</a>: Ok","text":"Ok//@nanachan: Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806180906","repostId":"1112457513","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112457513","pubTimestamp":1626785289,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112457513?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112457513","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, an","content":"<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!</p>\n<p>After a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b214cc5c7f50f8c1d773d1340ab8371\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>This pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f22146cea0299321e3b778b2c12f567\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>Under the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53df9fc958c939cc72809a5e5afd0a0e\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>But Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/069ebc904e3c351c7461b49c2e4abad5\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">This is not a pretty picture for the future.</p>\n<p><b>Exorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.</b>Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a&nbsp;survey&nbsp;from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.</p>\n<p>An inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.<b>A&nbsp;record&nbsp;71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured</b>, according to July data from the University of Michigan.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n(Forward-Looking) US Building Permits Plunge To 8-Month Lows In June\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 20:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/forward-looking-us-building-permits-plunge-8-month-lows-june","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112457513","content_text":"Amid a slew of weak housing sales data, weak mortgage applications, crashing homebuyer sentiment, and 11-month low homebuilder sentiment, analysts still expected both housing starts and permits to rise MoM in June... they were half right!\nAfter a small downward revision in May, Housing Starts soared 6.3% MoM in June (massively beating expectations of +1.2% MoM), but... Building Permits, which are forward-looking of course, saw a third straight month of declines, plunging 5.1% MoM (far worse than the +0.7% MoM expected)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThis pushed the Permits SAAR below Starts for the first time since Jan 2020, and to its weakest since Oct 2020...\nSource: Bloomberg\nUnder the hood, Single Family Starts rose 6.3% SAAR to 1.160MM, the highest since March, and Multi Family (rentals) Starts were up 6.8% to 474K, highest since July 2020...\n\nBut Permits were far more ugly, with Single Family Permits down 6.3% to 1.063MM SAAR, lowest since August 2020; and Multi Family Permits down 1.6% to 483K SAAR, lowest since Dec 2020.\nThis is not a pretty picture for the future.\nExorbitant materials costs, combined with shortages of land and labor, have thwarted developers seeking to ramp up construction.Supply concerns and a slowdown in sales pushed builder confidence down to an 11-month low in July, a survey from the National Association of Home Builders showed Monday.\nAn inventory crunch that followed solid demand last year has sent prices soaring, tempering buyer interest.A record 71% of consumers said higher prices were a reason why buying conditions have soured, according to July data from the University of Michigan.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":460,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171313988,"gmtCreate":1626706001344,"gmtModify":1631891246358,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171313988","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170931216,"gmtCreate":1626398838035,"gmtModify":1631891246370,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170931216","repostId":"1131457770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178369272,"gmtCreate":1626788568896,"gmtModify":1631891246349,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178369272","repostId":"1112457513","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810215646,"gmtCreate":1629980310985,"gmtModify":1631891246317,"author":{"id":"3582191552439715","authorId":"3582191552439715","name":"nanachan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a6e494cfcf3180b097b6983a8dcbac4a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582191552439715","authorIdStr":"3582191552439715"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy #sndl cheaper","listText":"Buy #sndl cheaper","text":"Buy #sndl cheaper","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810215646","repostId":"2162960770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}