Salibee的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Salibee

Salibee

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0勋章

2021-08-13

Wah play punk ah chinese stonks.

2021-08-03

Always innovating. 🚀

Tesla rose nearly 5% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉早盘涨近5%</blockquote>

2021-08-03

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ccant tank this

2021-08-02

Downtrend soon. Hold your horses

2021-08-02

$Apple(AAPL)$apple pen

2021-08-01

$Walt Disney(DIS)$shaft sore liao lor see this red

2021-08-01

Go je

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-01

Red red red...so many red making my balls choke

2021-08-01

Beautiful performance past quarter. It was fun while it lasted

2021-07-31

$Apple(AAPL)$juice running out lor .. time to pp it up

2021-07-31

Cathy ill remember you for this

2021-07-29

Play somemore!! When at peakdl dowan cash out...fb big trouble...FUD LOR!!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-29

No juice one lorr

2021-07-25

No juice to pump this up

2021-07-25

$NIO Inc.(NIO)$dont disappoint me ah

2021-07-24

Juice dry up liao la

2021-07-24

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$pplay some more get burnt lorr

2021-07-23

This is one Im aiming for for quite some time. But never really had the balls to do it especially after finding out about Billy Gates affairs. Wth was I thinking damn it!!

2021-07-22

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$once your gains were 20% until cathie the fud monger came along. Ill remember that very day.

2021-07-22

Theres an obvious dip will add this and amc tonight 👻😂 YA YA YA

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🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804800884","repostId":"1155693481","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155693481","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627913458,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155693481?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla rose nearly 5% in morning trading<blockquote>特斯拉早盘涨近5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155693481","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":" $Tesla Motors$ rose nearly 5% in morning trading.Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.In addition ,Last Thursday, Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla 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2)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a> rose nearly 5% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（8月2日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>早盘涨近5%。</blockquote></p><p> Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.</p><p><blockquote>Elon Musk确认特斯拉人工智能日将于8月19日举行。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;addition&nbsp;,Last Thursday,&nbsp;Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.</p><p><blockquote>此外，上周四，Benzinga提醒其用户特斯拉已申请一项专利，允许其从旧锂离子电动汽车电池中回收和再循环镍和钴。</blockquote></p><p> The patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more efficient.</p><p><blockquote>这项名为“通过电化学溶解的金属硫酸盐制造系统”的专利将使这家电动汽车和技术公司能够回收两种关键的电池金属原料并重复利用它们，从而提高其供应链的效率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9faf5c64c1d04f0efe8c72c78addc130\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"633\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155693481","content_text":"(August 2) Tesla Motors rose nearly 5% in morning trading.\nElon Musk confirms Tesla AI Day will be on August 19.\nIn addition ,Last Thursday, Benzinga Proalerted its users Tesla hadfiled a patentthat would allow it to recover and recycle nickel and cobalt from old lithium-ion EV batteries.\nThe patent, titled “Metal Sulfate Manufacturing System via Electrochemical Dissolution,” would allow the EV and technology company to recover the two crucial raw battery metals and reuse them making its supply chain more 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🤪😝🥳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/192594820","repostId":"1155662507","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177649242,"gmtCreate":1627215436686,"gmtModify":1631889462363,"author":{"id":"3578610877384773","authorId":"3578610877384773","name":"Salibee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4171df5071ff91dad108e551fca14644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578610877384773","authorIdStr":"3578610877384773"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No juice to pump this up","listText":"No juice to pump this up","text":"No juice to pump this up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2eaa28bd89e2162105b4531d69c5cd8","width":"1080","height":"3300"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177649242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":111097460,"gmtCreate":1622643315050,"gmtModify":1634099639753,"author":{"id":"3578610877384773","authorId":"3578610877384773","name":"Salibee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4171df5071ff91dad108e551fca14644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578610877384773","authorIdStr":"3578610877384773"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets split man im in","listText":"Lets split man im in","text":"Lets split man im in","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111097460","repostId":"1139790754","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1139790754","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622642200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139790754?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-02 21:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139790754","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free ca","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.</li>  <li>Lagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.</li>  <li>After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a085447e5042d959bca14408fd50b9d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。</li><li>2020年和2021年自由现金流增长滞后是由于支持增长的投资，追求大量机会。</li><li>在落后于市场之后，该公司的估值颇具吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Bet_Noire/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>短视的投资者正在出售亚马逊（AMZN），该公司一直是新冠疫情停工的巨大受益者，以资助通用电气（GE）和纽柯钢铁（NUE）等可疑的重新开业公司。因此，亚马逊今年迄今一直落后于市场，目前的估值颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊的收入和每股收益从新冠疫情中受益匪浅，但自由现金流却没有。在当前的支出周期结束后，亚马逊似乎准备在2022年和2023年经历自由现金流的爆炸式增长。毕竟，正是公司为投资者保留的现金让公司变得强大，投资者变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>COVID Beneficiary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID受益人</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直是新冠疫情的巨大受益者。该公司2020年收入为3860亿美元，同比增长37.6%。这是亚马逊自2011年以来最快的增速，甚至包括2017年和2018年收购全食超市时对增长的无机贡献。令人惊讶的是，该公司上一次增长更快是在2011年，当时该公司“仅”创造了480亿美元的收入。谁说大象不会跳舞？</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>2020年，亚马逊电商业务收入加速增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.</li>  <li>Online stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.</li> </ul> In 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三方卖家服务增长49.6%，达到804亿美元。</li><li>在线商店增长39.7%，达到1970亿美元。</li></ul>2020年，该公司的其他业务继续减速，尽管减速可能低于没有新冠疫情的情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Subscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.</li>  <li>AWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.</li> </ul> Physical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>订阅服务同比增长31.2%，达到252亿美元，同比下降4.4%，而上年下降10.1%。</li><li>AWS增长29.5%，达到454亿美元，同比下降7%，而上一年下降10.5%。</li></ul>毫不奇怪，实体店是唯一受到新冠疫情影响的业务，下降了5.6%，至162亿美元。5.6%的下降甚至没有那么糟糕，考虑到亚马逊2020年4890亿美元的总收入，这项业务只是杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情带来的好处很大程度上延续到了2021年，因为市场普遍预测2021年收入增长将达到26.9%，高于严峻的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的会计利润增幅更大。2020年营业收入增长至5.9%，同比增长70个基点。值得注意的是，排除2020年一次性115亿美元的新冠相关费用，亚马逊的营业利润率将为8.9%，而不是报道的5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP每股收益同比增长81.8%，达到每股41.83美元，令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Is My Money?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的钱呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年收入同比增长37.6%，每股收益同比增长81.8%，但自由现金流增长大幅滞后，仅同比增长20.1%。预计2021年的情况会更糟，自由现金流预计仅增长16.9%，仅为当年EPS预期增速的一半。</blockquote></p><p> This because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为资本支出（“资本支出”）在2020年同比增长了令人难以置信的176%，达到超过350亿美元。这是至少自2007年以来最大的同比增长。就绝对数字而言，2020年部署了220亿美元的增量——这绝对是一个令人难以置信的数字。预计2021年资本支出将保持高位，同比再增长16%，达到410亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon&nbsp;announced&nbsp;the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.</p><p><blockquote>除了所有这些支出之外，该公司还于5月26日宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅影业。我可以看到保守、老派的投资者的头即将爆炸——但请放松。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>支出和自由现金流周期</b></blockquote></p><p> In my 2017 article,<i>Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed</i>, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.</p><p><blockquote>在我2017年的文章中，<i>亚马逊空头将被压垮</i>，我解决了投资者同样的担忧，即亚马逊花了太多钱，尽管今天的支出规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Back in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>早在2017年，投资者就对亚马逊加大投资感到担忧。简而言之，我的观点是，投资者应该区分追求巨大机会的投资和臃肿的成本结构。一般来说，意外开支是不好的，而——假设你信任管理层的能力——意外投资是好的。如果沃伦·巴菲特说，“我以为我要部署200亿美元，但一个机会出现了，我可以部署600亿美元”，投资者会欣喜若狂。对于亚马逊来说，这个机会就是新冠疫情引发的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p> Relax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>放松一下，支出激增之后往往会出现多年的适度支出增长。我2017年的文章发表后，2018年和2019年的资本支出每年仅增长12-13%，而自由现金流2018年同比增长132%，2019年同比增长33%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-<i>cumulatively</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在2010-2015年期间看到同样的周期。2010年，资本支出同比飙升163%，2011年又飙升85%，2012年又飙升109%。回顾过去，在每年数十亿美元的低个位数资本支出中，这些数字微不足道，这当然在支持亚马逊未来的增长方面发挥了关键作用。然而，在随后的三年（2013年至2015年）中，资本支出仅增长了21%——<i>累计</i>.</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.</p><p><blockquote>到2015年，自由现金流猛增276%，达到73亿美元，比该公司此前产生的最高水平高出两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计这次也会出现同样的周期。2022年，随着资本支出增长放缓至+3%，自由现金流预计将同比增长58%。2023年，自由现金流预计将再增长44%，达到创纪录的826亿美元，因为资本支出增长预计将保持在+2%的低位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能需要更多的说服力才能适应这些巨大的预计自由现金流数字。到2023年，自由现金流将达到830亿美元，几乎是2020年自由现金流310亿美元的三倍，这已经是有史以来的最高水平。2020年部署的资本支出增量为220亿美元，这是一个巨大的数字。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity, however, is much more massive.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场机会要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;share&nbsp;of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊在美国电商的份额约为50%。这个数字很高，但美国零售市场规模超过5万亿美元，亚马逊约占整个零售市场的9%，仅占消费者支出的3.3%。该公司有望获得份额，因为它增加了更大的便利性、更具竞争力的价格和更多的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is&nbsp;sized&nbsp;at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊正在积极进军规模大得多的全球零售市场，该市场规模约为25万亿美元。亚马逊预计2021年收入4900亿美元，不到全球机会的2%。</blockquote></p><p> A large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊资本支出增长的很大一部分用于扩大满足电子商务需求激增所需的基础设施。例如，2020年，亚马逊的履行面积同比增长了50%。</blockquote></p><p> Another areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.</p><p><blockquote>另一个支出领域是支持AWS，这是资本支出密集型但利润很高。AWS仅占2020年收入的12%，却占公司营业收入的50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The global cloud computing market is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.</p><p><blockquote>全球云计算市场预计将从2020年的3714亿美元增长到2025年的8321亿美元，CAGR为17.5%。亚马逊的AWS在2020年创造了590亿美元的收入，预计2021年和2023年将分别增长31%和25%。这意味着AWS的市场份额不到20%，预计未来将占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> If Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊有机会部署更多资本来支持这项高利润且快速增长的业务，这对我来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Management does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.</p><p><blockquote>管理层没有告诉我们资本支出的确切分配方式以及回报可能是什么样子。我认为作为一个局外人不可能估计零售（电商、实体店、订阅等）增量投资的预期回报。）vs.商业服务（AWS、广告等。），因为这需要我们将公司作为独立的业务进行分析。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一个巨大的飞轮，它不能被分成几个部分，就像你不能把一只乌龟和它的壳分开一样。例如，如果没有零售业务产生的流量，广告就不可能投放。这很明显。不太明显的是，AWS最初是一个电子商务工具，远在它成为今天的公共云公司巨头之前。尽管表面上看起来不同，但亚马逊和AWS都是其核心IT基础设施平台。此外，亚马逊的其他重大举措，如Alexa和流媒体，也通过Prime会员与电子商务紧密相连。</blockquote></p><p> But we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.</p><p><blockquote>但我们确实知道一件事：持续增长的机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Like most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数成长型股票一样，亚马逊今年迄今为止落后于市场，估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&amp;P 500, the lowest in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的预期每股收益为52倍，低于2020年7月的112倍。该股的交易价格较标普500溢价140%，为5年来最低。</blockquote></p><p> On free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>就自由现金流收益率而言，亚马逊的远期自由现金流收益率为2.6%，接近其5年期范围的低端。如果我们相信资本支出和自由现金流周期，那么该股的估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。在落后于市场之后，考虑到未来巨大的增长机会以及2022年和2023年自由现金流的潜在爆炸式增长，该公司的估值具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: The Cash Will Come<blockquote>亚马逊：现金会来的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-02 21:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.</li>  <li>Lagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.</li>  <li>After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a085447e5042d959bca14408fd50b9d\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。</li><li>2020年和2021年自由现金流增长滞后是由于支持增长的投资，追求大量机会。</li><li>在落后于市场之后，该公司的估值颇具吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Bet_Noire/iStock，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.</p><p><blockquote>短视的投资者正在出售亚马逊（AMZN），该公司一直是新冠疫情停工的巨大受益者，以资助通用电气（GE）和纽柯钢铁（NUE）等可疑的重新开业公司。因此，亚马逊今年迄今一直落后于市场，目前的估值颇具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊的收入和每股收益从新冠疫情中受益匪浅，但自由现金流却没有。在当前的支出周期结束后，亚马逊似乎准备在2022年和2023年经历自由现金流的爆炸式增长。毕竟，正是公司为投资者保留的现金让公司变得强大，投资者变得富有。</blockquote></p><p> <b>COVID Beneficiary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>COVID受益人</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it&nbsp;acquired&nbsp;Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊一直是新冠疫情的巨大受益者。该公司2020年收入为3860亿美元，同比增长37.6%。这是亚马逊自2011年以来最快的增速，甚至包括2017年和2018年收购全食超市时对增长的无机贡献。令人惊讶的是，该公司上一次增长更快是在2011年，当时该公司“仅”创造了480亿美元的收入。谁说大象不会跳舞？</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:</p><p><blockquote>2020年，亚马逊电商业务收入加速增长：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.</li>  <li>Online stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.</li> </ul> In 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第三方卖家服务增长49.6%，达到804亿美元。</li><li>在线商店增长39.7%，达到1970亿美元。</li></ul>2020年，该公司的其他业务继续减速，尽管减速可能低于没有新冠疫情的情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Subscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.</li>  <li>AWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.</li> </ul> Physical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>订阅服务同比增长31.2%，达到252亿美元，同比下降4.4%，而上年下降10.1%。</li><li>AWS增长29.5%，达到454亿美元，同比下降7%，而上一年下降10.5%。</li></ul>毫不奇怪，实体店是唯一受到新冠疫情影响的业务，下降了5.6%，至162亿美元。5.6%的下降甚至没有那么糟糕，考虑到亚马逊2020年4890亿美元的总收入，这项业务只是杯水车薪。</blockquote></p><p> The COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.</p><p><blockquote>新冠疫情带来的好处很大程度上延续到了2021年，因为市场普遍预测2021年收入增长将达到26.9%，高于严峻的业绩。</blockquote></p><p> The company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的会计利润增幅更大。2020年营业收入增长至5.9%，同比增长70个基点。值得注意的是，排除2020年一次性115亿美元的新冠相关费用，亚马逊的营业利润率将为8.9%，而不是报道的5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> GAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.</p><p><blockquote>GAAP每股收益同比增长81.8%，达到每股41.83美元，令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Is My Money?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的钱呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Although revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2020年收入同比增长37.6%，每股收益同比增长81.8%，但自由现金流增长大幅滞后，仅同比增长20.1%。预计2021年的情况会更糟，自由现金流预计仅增长16.9%，仅为当年EPS预期增速的一半。</blockquote></p><p> This because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为资本支出（“资本支出”）在2020年同比增长了令人难以置信的176%，达到超过350亿美元。这是至少自2007年以来最大的同比增长。就绝对数字而言，2020年部署了220亿美元的增量——这绝对是一个令人难以置信的数字。预计2021年资本支出将保持高位，同比再增长16%，达到410亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon&nbsp;announced&nbsp;the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.</p><p><blockquote>除了所有这些支出之外，该公司还于5月26日宣布以84.5亿美元收购米高梅影业。我可以看到保守、老派的投资者的头即将爆炸——但请放松。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>支出和自由现金流周期</b></blockquote></p><p> In my 2017 article,<i>Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed</i>, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.</p><p><blockquote>在我2017年的文章中，<i>亚马逊空头将被压垮</i>，我解决了投资者同样的担忧，即亚马逊花了太多钱，尽管今天的支出规模要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Back in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.</p><p><blockquote>早在2017年，投资者就对亚马逊加大投资感到担忧。简而言之，我的观点是，投资者应该区分追求巨大机会的投资和臃肿的成本结构。一般来说，意外开支是不好的，而——假设你信任管理层的能力——意外投资是好的。如果沃伦·巴菲特说，“我以为我要部署200亿美元，但一个机会出现了，我可以部署600亿美元”，投资者会欣喜若狂。对于亚马逊来说，这个机会就是新冠疫情引发的需求激增。</blockquote></p><p> Relax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>放松一下，支出激增之后往往会出现多年的适度支出增长。我2017年的文章发表后，2018年和2019年的资本支出每年仅增长12-13%，而自由现金流2018年同比增长132%，2019年同比增长33%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-<i>cumulatively</i>.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以在2010-2015年期间看到同样的周期。2010年，资本支出同比飙升163%，2011年又飙升85%，2012年又飙升109%。回顾过去，在每年数十亿美元的低个位数资本支出中，这些数字微不足道，这当然在支持亚马逊未来的增长方面发挥了关键作用。然而，在随后的三年（2013年至2015年）中，资本支出仅增长了21%——<i>累计</i>.</blockquote></p><p> By 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.</p><p><blockquote>到2015年，自由现金流猛增276%，达到73亿美元，比该公司此前产生的最高水平高出两到三倍。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街预计这次也会出现同样的周期。2022年，随着资本支出增长放缓至+3%，自由现金流预计将同比增长58%。2023年，自由现金流预计将再增长44%，达到创纪录的826亿美元，因为资本支出增长预计将保持在+2%的低位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场机遇</b></blockquote></p><p> Some investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者可能需要更多的说服力才能适应这些巨大的预计自由现金流数字。到2023年，自由现金流将达到830亿美元，几乎是2020年自由现金流310亿美元的三倍，这已经是有史以来的最高水平。2020年部署的资本支出增量为220亿美元，这是一个巨大的数字。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity, however, is much more massive.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场机会要大得多。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's&nbsp;share&nbsp;of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊在美国电商的份额约为50%。这个数字很高，但美国零售市场规模超过5万亿美元，亚马逊约占整个零售市场的9%，仅占消费者支出的3.3%。该公司有望获得份额，因为它增加了更大的便利性、更具竞争力的价格和更多的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is&nbsp;sized&nbsp;at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊正在积极进军规模大得多的全球零售市场，该市场规模约为25万亿美元。亚马逊预计2021年收入4900亿美元，不到全球机会的2%。</blockquote></p><p> A large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊资本支出增长的很大一部分用于扩大满足电子商务需求激增所需的基础设施。例如，2020年，亚马逊的履行面积同比增长了50%。</blockquote></p><p> Another areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.</p><p><blockquote>另一个支出领域是支持AWS，这是资本支出密集型但利润很高。AWS仅占2020年收入的12%，却占公司营业收入的50%以上。</blockquote></p><p> The global cloud computing market is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.</p><p><blockquote>全球云计算市场预计将从2020年的3714亿美元增长到2025年的8321亿美元，CAGR为17.5%。亚马逊的AWS在2020年创造了590亿美元的收入，预计2021年和2023年将分别增长31%和25%。这意味着AWS的市场份额不到20%，预计未来将占据市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> If Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊有机会部署更多资本来支持这项高利润且快速增长的业务，这对我来说都是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Management does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.</p><p><blockquote>管理层没有告诉我们资本支出的确切分配方式以及回报可能是什么样子。我认为作为一个局外人不可能估计零售（电商、实体店、订阅等）增量投资的预期回报。）vs.商业服务（AWS、广告等。），因为这需要我们将公司作为独立的业务进行分析。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊是一个巨大的飞轮，它不能被分成几个部分，就像你不能把一只乌龟和它的壳分开一样。例如，如果没有零售业务产生的流量，广告就不可能投放。这很明显。不太明显的是，AWS最初是一个电子商务工具，远在它成为今天的公共云公司巨头之前。尽管表面上看起来不同，但亚马逊和AWS都是其核心IT基础设施平台。此外，亚马逊的其他重大举措，如Alexa和流媒体，也通过Prime会员与电子商务紧密相连。</blockquote></p><p> But we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.</p><p><blockquote>但我们确实知道一件事：持续增长的机会是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Like most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数成长型股票一样，亚马逊今年迄今为止落后于市场，估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&amp;P 500, the lowest in 5 years.</p><p><blockquote>目前，亚马逊的预期每股收益为52倍，低于2020年7月的112倍。该股的交易价格较标普500溢价140%，为5年来最低。</blockquote></p><p> On free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>就自由现金流收益率而言，亚马逊的远期自由现金流收益率为2.6%，接近其5年期范围的低端。如果我们相信资本支出和自由现金流周期，那么该股的估值看起来很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Although Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚马逊受益于新冠疫情引发的停工，但自由现金流的最佳状态尚未到来。在落后于市场之后，考虑到未来巨大的增长机会以及2022年和2023年自由现金流的潜在爆炸式增长，该公司的估值具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432586-amazon-the-cash-will-come\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432586-amazon-the-cash-will-come","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139790754","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow.\nLagging free cash flow growth in 2020 and 2021 is due to investment to support growth, going after massive opportunities.\nAfter lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation.\n\nPhoto by Bet_Noire/iStock via Getty Images\nShort-sighted investors are selling Amazon (AMZN), which has been a massive beneficiary of the COVID shutdowns, to fund dubious reopening plays like General Electric (GE) and Nucor (NUE). As a result, Amazon has lagged the market year-to-date and is now trading at an attractive valuation.\nAlthough Amazon's revenue and EPS has benefited tremendously from COVID, free cash flow has not. After the current spending cycle winds down, Amazon seems poised to experience an explosion of free cash flow by 2022 and 2023. After all, it is the cash that the company gets to keep for investors that makes the company powerful and investors rich.\nCOVID Beneficiary\nAmazon has been a massive beneficiary of COVID. The company generated $386 billion of revenue in 2020, up 37.6% y/y. This Amazon's fastest growth rate since 2011, even including the inorganic contribution to growth in 2017 and 2018 when it acquired Whole Foods. Amazingly, the last time the company grew faster was in 2011 when the company generated \"only\" $48 billion in revenue. Who said elephants can't dance?\nIn 2020, Amazon's e-commerce businesses experienced accelerated revenue growth:\n\n3rd Party Seller Services increased 49.6% to $80.4 billion.\nOnline stores increased 39.7% to $197 billion.\n\nIn 2020, the company's other businesses continued to decelerate, though likely at a lower deceleration than without COVID:\n\nSubscription Services grew 31.2% y/y $25.2 billion, a 4.4% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.1% point deceleration the prior year.\nAWS grew 29.5% to $45.4 billion, a 7% point y/y deceleration vs. a 10.5% point deceleration the prior year.\n\nPhysical stores, not surprisingly, is the only business that got hurt by COVID, declining 5.6% to $16.2 billion. A 5.6% decline isn't even that bad, and this business is a drop in the bucket given Amazon's total revenue of $489 billion in 2020.\nThe COVID benefits largely extended into 2021 as consensus estimates put 2021 revenue growth at a robust 26.9% on top of tough comps.\nThe company saw an even bigger increase in accounting profits. Operating income expanded to 5.9% in 2020, a 70 bps y/y expansion. It is important to note that excluding one-time $11.5 billion COVID-related expenses in 2020, Amazon's operating margin would have been 8.9% rather than the reported 5.9%.\nGAAP EPS grew an incredible 81.8% y/y to $41.83 per share.\nWhere Is My Money?\nAlthough revenue grow 37.6% y/y and EPS grew 81.8% y/y in 2020, free cash flow growth lagged materially, growing only 20.1% y/y. 2021 is expected to be worse, with free cash flow expected to grow only 16.9%, just half the growth rate of its expected EPS growth that year.\nThis because capital expenditure (\"Capex\") increased an incredible 176% y/y in 2020 to over $35 billion. This the largest y/y growth since at least 2007. In terms of absolute numbers, 2020 deployed an incremental $22 billion- an absolutely mind-boggling amount. Capex is expected to remain elevated in 2021, growing another 16% y/y to $41 billion.\nOn top of all this spending, the company, on May 26, Amazon announced the acquisition of MGM Studios for $8.45 billion. I can see conservative, old-school investors' heads about to explode- but relax.\nThe Spending and Free Cash Flow Cycle\nIn my 2017 article,Amazon Bears Will Get Crushed, I addressed the same investor concern that Amazon is spending too much money, although the spending is at a much, much greater scale today.\nBack in 2017, investors were worried about Amazon's ramped up investments. In a nutshell, my argument was that investors should differentiate between investments going after large opportunities and a bloated cost structure. Generally speaking, unexpected expenses are bad, and - assuming that you trust management's ability - unexpected investments are good. If Warren Buffett said, \"I thought I was going to deploy $20 billion, but an opportunity came up where I can deploy $60 billion\", investors would be ecstatic. That opportunity, for Amazon, was the COVID-induced surge in demand.\nRelax, a surge in spending tends to be followed by years of moderate spending growth. After my 2017 article was published, 2018 and 2019 saw Capex growth of only 12-13% per year, while free cash flow grew 132% y/y in 2018 and 33% in 2019.\nWe can see the same cycle in the 2010 - 2015 period. In 2010, Capex surged 163% y/y, then another 85% in 2011, and another 109% in 2012. Looking back, these were puny numbers in the low-single-digit of billions per year of Capex, which of course played a key role in supporting Amazon's future growth. However, in the subsequent three years, 2013 through 2015, Capex grew only 21%-cumulatively.\nBy 2015, free cash flow exploded 276% to $7.3 billion, higher than the highest the company has ever generated until then by a factor of two to three.\nWall Street is expecting the same cycle to play out this time around. In 2022, free cash flow is expected to grow 58% y/y as Capex growth moderates to +3%. In 2023, free cash flow is expected to grow another 44% to a record $82.6 billion as Capex growth is expected to remain low at +2% y/y.\nThe Market Opportunity\nSome investors may take a little more convincing to get comfortable with those huge projected free cash flow numbers. $83 billion of free cash flow by 2023 is almost three times its 2020's free cash flow of $31 billion- already its highest ever. And an incremental $22 billion of Capex deployed in 2020 is a massive number.\nThe market opportunity, however, is much more massive.\nAmazon's share of US e-commerce is approximately 50%. That is high, but the US retail market is sized at over $5 trillion, and Amazon has around a 9% share of the entire retail market, and only 3.3% of consumer spending. The company is poised to gain share as it adds greater convenience, more competitive prices and greater selection.\nAmazon is aggressively going after the much larger global retail market, which is sized at approximately $25 trillion. Amazon's expected 2021 revenue of $490 billion is less than 2% of the global opportunity.\nA large portion of Amazon's increase in Capex went to expanding the infrastructure necessary to meet the surge in e-commerce demand. For example, in 2020, Amazon grew its fulfillment square footage by 50% y/y.\nAnother areas of spending is to support AWS, which is Capex intensive but highly profitable. At just 12% of 2020's revenue, AWS accounted for over 50% of the company's operating income.\nThe global cloud computing market is expected to grow from $371.4 billion in 2020 to $832.1 billion by 2025, at a CAGR of 17.5%. Amazon's AWS generated $59 billion of revenue in 2020 and is expected to grow 31% in 2021 and 25% in 2023. This means AWS has less than 20% market share and is expected to take market share going forward.\nIf Amazon has an opportunity to deploy more capital to support this highly profitable and rapidly growing business, thatis all great news to me.\nManagement does not tell us exactly how the Capex is allocated and what the returns could look like. I don't think it is possible as an outsider to estimate the expected return of the incremental investments in retail (e-commerce, physical stores, subscription, etc.) vs. business services (AWS, advertising, etc.), because it would require that we analyze the company as separate businesses.\nAmazon is one giant flywheel that cannot be separated into partsany more than you can separate a turtle from its shell. For example, without the traffic generated by its retail business, advertising would not be possible. This obvious. Less obvious is that fact that AWS began as an e-commerce tool, way before it became the public cloud company giant it is today. And although seemingly different on the surface, both Amazon.com and AWS are at its core IT infrastructure platforms at scale. In addition, Amazon's other major initiatives, such as Alexa and streaming, are joined at the hip with e-commerce by Prime membership.\nBut we do know one thing: the opportunity for continued growth is massive.\nValuation\nLike most growth stocks, Amazon lagged the market so far this year, and valuation is looking attractive.\nCurrently, Amazon is trading at 52 times forward EPS, down from 112 times in July 2020. The stock is trading at a 140% premium to the S&P 500, the lowest in 5 years.\nOn free cash flow yield, Amazon is yielding 2.6% forward free cash flow, which is towards the low end of its 5-year range. If we believe in the Capex and free cash flow cycle, the stock looks attractively valued.\nTakeaway\nAlthough Amazon benefited from COVID-induced shutdowns, the best is yet to come for free cash flow. After lagging the market, the company is trading at an attractive valuation given the large growth opportunities ahead of it, and the potential explosion in free cash flow in 2022 and 2023.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":100674440,"gmtCreate":1619614094680,"gmtModify":1634211343994,"author":{"id":"3578610877384773","authorId":"3578610877384773","name":"Salibee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4171df5071ff91dad108e551fca14644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578610877384773","authorIdStr":"3578610877384773"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fingers crossed babes","listText":"Fingers crossed babes","text":"Fingers crossed babes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100674440","repostId":"1179396069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179396069","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619573853,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179396069?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果可能会再次打破盈利上限。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179396069","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech g","content":"<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>苹果要想超越2020年的井喷业绩，还有很多工作要做。问题是，这家科技巨头也许能够成功。</blockquote></p><p> The buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted&nbsp;its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.</p><p><blockquote>去年围绕苹果的热度超出了图表，即使是对于最热门的科技公司来说也是如此。对该公司首款5G手机将于秋季推出的预期，随着疫情的发展，对Mac和iPad的需求激增，以及可穿戴设备和服务的实力相互促进。所有这些因素都在12月季度集中在一起，当时苹果（股票代码：AAPL）公布了有史以来最大的季度业绩。销售额飙升21%，达到1114亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期高出80亿美元。每个产品类别——iPhone、iPad、Mac、可穿戴设备和服务——都实现了两位数的增长。苹果股价全年上涨81%，市值增加近1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很难遵循的行为，尤其是在3月份季度，该季度总是比假期提振的12月份季度放缓。但当周三盘后公布结果时，苹果可能会再次实现五倍的增长。华尔街当然是这么认为的，尽管2021年推动苹果股价上涨不到2%的市场更加谨慎。市场普遍预计看涨期权将比去年全面实现两位数增长：iPhone销售额增长43%，达到414亿美元；iPad销售额增长29%，达到56亿美元；Mac销售额68亿美元，增长27%；可穿戴设备销售额（主要是苹果手表和AirPods）为74亿美元，增长18%；服务业增长16%，达到155亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街普遍预计销售额为770亿美元，比去年同期增长32%，每股利润为98美分。这将是苹果自2012年3月以来最快的营收增长率，当时的收入约为现在的一半。大多数看涨的苹果分析师似乎认为他们自己的估计太低了——770亿美元的股价可能会引发该股的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is also&nbsp;expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.</p><p><blockquote>预计苹果还将提供其资本配置策略的最新信息。一年前，该公司宣布将股息增加6%，并将股票回购计划增加500亿美元。苹果一再表示，它正在努力实现现金中性头寸，但其庞大的现金流减缓了实现这一目标的进展。</blockquote></p><p> As always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，本季度不仅仅是盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.</p><p><blockquote>其一，华尔街将寻找Mac和iPad销量激增可持续的迹象，以及尽管芯片和显示屏普遍短缺，但该公司仍能满足需求的迹象。一些投资者担心，随着越来越多的人返回学校和办公室，个人电脑需求的激增可能会消退。他们将在这一点上寻求公司的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Another is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.</p><p><blockquote>另一个是iPhone增长复苏的可持续性。多头曾寄予厚望，认为iPhone 12将推动换机周期加速的“超级周期”。几位分析师指出，消费者对iPhone 12系列高端产品的明显偏好正在推高平均售价，这应该会支持该细分市场强劲的收入季度。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt的布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)写道：“鉴于2020年秋季新款iPhone的发布时间晚于季节性，我们相信，与过去几年相比，今年3月季度的iPhone需求将经历更有利的同比比较。”预计本季度iPhone收入将增长47%。</blockquote></p><p> And if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果把这一切都拼凑起来呢？摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)写道，苹果可能会超出华尔街的预期，她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为158美元，较周一收盘价134.72美元上涨17%。她预计营收将超过800亿美元，所有细分市场同比至少增长19%。她尤其看好Mac和iPad的销量，预期远高于市场普遍预期——Mac销量为53%，iPad销量为52%。她还预计苹果将股息提高10%，并将股票回购计划扩大600亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would certainly qualify as a job well done.</p><p><blockquote>这当然是一项出色的工作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果可能会再次打破盈利上限。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Could Blow the Top Off Earnings—Again. What That Would Mean for the Stock.<blockquote>苹果可能会再次打破盈利上限。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-28 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.</p><p><blockquote>苹果要想超越2020年的井喷业绩，还有很多工作要做。问题是，这家科技巨头也许能够成功。</blockquote></p><p> The buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted&nbsp;its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.</p><p><blockquote>去年围绕苹果的热度超出了图表，即使是对于最热门的科技公司来说也是如此。对该公司首款5G手机将于秋季推出的预期，随着疫情的发展，对Mac和iPad的需求激增，以及可穿戴设备和服务的实力相互促进。所有这些因素都在12月季度集中在一起，当时苹果（股票代码：AAPL）公布了有史以来最大的季度业绩。销售额飙升21%，达到1114亿美元，比华尔街普遍预期高出80亿美元。每个产品类别——iPhone、iPad、Mac、可穿戴设备和服务——都实现了两位数的增长。苹果股价全年上涨81%，市值增加近1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个很难遵循的行为，尤其是在3月份季度，该季度总是比假期提振的12月份季度放缓。但当周三盘后公布结果时，苹果可能会再次实现五倍的增长。华尔街当然是这么认为的，尽管2021年推动苹果股价上涨不到2%的市场更加谨慎。市场普遍预计看涨期权将比去年全面实现两位数增长：iPhone销售额增长43%，达到414亿美元；iPad销售额增长29%，达到56亿美元；Mac销售额68亿美元，增长27%；可穿戴设备销售额（主要是苹果手表和AirPods）为74亿美元，增长18%；服务业增长16%，达到155亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街普遍预计销售额为770亿美元，比去年同期增长32%，每股利润为98美分。这将是苹果自2012年3月以来最快的营收增长率，当时的收入约为现在的一半。大多数看涨的苹果分析师似乎认为他们自己的估计太低了——770亿美元的股价可能会引发该股的抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Apple is also&nbsp;expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.</p><p><blockquote>预计苹果还将提供其资本配置策略的最新信息。一年前，该公司宣布将股息增加6%，并将股票回购计划增加500亿美元。苹果一再表示，它正在努力实现现金中性头寸，但其庞大的现金流减缓了实现这一目标的进展。</blockquote></p><p> As always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，本季度不仅仅是盈利。</blockquote></p><p> For one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.</p><p><blockquote>其一，华尔街将寻找Mac和iPad销量激增可持续的迹象，以及尽管芯片和显示屏普遍短缺，但该公司仍能满足需求的迹象。一些投资者担心，随着越来越多的人返回学校和办公室，个人电脑需求的激增可能会消退。他们将在这一点上寻求公司的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Another is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.</p><p><blockquote>另一个是iPhone增长复苏的可持续性。多头曾寄予厚望，认为iPhone 12将推动换机周期加速的“超级周期”。几位分析师指出，消费者对iPhone 12系列高端产品的明显偏好正在推高平均售价，这应该会支持该细分市场强劲的收入季度。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Monness Crespi Hardt的布莱恩·怀特(Brian White)写道：“鉴于2020年秋季新款iPhone的发布时间晚于季节性，我们相信，与过去几年相比，今年3月季度的iPhone需求将经历更有利的同比比较。”预计本季度iPhone收入将增长47%。</blockquote></p><p> And if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果把这一切都拼凑起来呢？摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂(Katy Huberty)写道，苹果可能会超出华尔街的预期，她对该股给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为158美元，较周一收盘价134.72美元上涨17%。她预计营收将超过800亿美元，所有细分市场同比至少增长19%。她尤其看好Mac和iPad的销量，预期远高于市场普遍预期——Mac销量为53%，iPad销量为52%。她还预计苹果将股息提高10%，并将股票回购计划扩大600亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> That would certainly qualify as a job well done.</p><p><blockquote>这当然是一项出色的工作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-could-blow-the-top-off-earningsagain-what-that-would-mean-for-the-stock-51619495288?mod=hp_DAY_Theme_1_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179396069","content_text":"Apple has its work cut out for it trying to surpass 2020’s blowout results. The thing is, the tech giant just might be able to pull it off.\nThe buzz around Apple last year was off the charts, even for what is the buzziest of technology companies. Anticipation of the fall launch of the company’s first 5G phones, surging demand for both Macs and iPads as the pandemic rolled on, and strength in both wearables and services fed off each other. The pieces all came together in the December quarter, when Apple (ticker: AAPL) posted its biggest quarter ever. Sales soared 21% to $111.4 billion, more than $8 billion over the Street consensus. Every product category—iPhone, iPad, Macs, wearables, and services—notched double-digit growth. Apple stock finished the year up 81%, adding nearly $1 trillion to its market cap.\nThat’s a tough act to follow, particularly with the March quarter, which always slows from the holiday-boosted December quarter. But Apple could pull off the quintuple double again when its results come out after the bell Wednesday. The Street certainly thinks so, even if the market, which has pushed Apple shares up less than 2% in 2021, has been more cautious. Consensus estimates call for double-digit increases from last year across the board: iPhones sales up 43%, to $41.4 billion; iPad sales up 29%, to $5.6 billion; Mac sales of $6.8 billion, up 27%; wearables sales (mostly Apple Watch and AirPods) of $7.4 billion, up 18%; and a 16% bump in services, to $15.5 billion.\nOverall, the Street consensus expects sales of $77 billion, up 32% from a year ago, with profits of 98 cents a share. That would be the fastest top-line growth rate for any Apple quarter since March 2012, when revenues were about half what they are now. And most bullish Apple analysts seem to think their own estimates are too low—a print at $77 billion would likely trigger a selloff in the stock.\nApple is also expected to provide an update on its capital-allocation strategy. A year ago,the company announced a 6% dividend increase, and boosted its stock repurchase plan by $50 billion. Apple has said repeatedly that it is pushing to get to a cash neutral position, but its remarkably big cash flow has slowed progress toward that goal.\nAs always, the quarter is about more than just earnings.\nFor one, the Street will be looking for signs that the sales surge for Macs and iPads is sustainable—and that the company is keeping up with demand despite widespread chip and display shortages. Some investors worry that the spike in PC demand could ebb as more people return to schools and offices. They’ll be looking for company guidance on that point.\nAnother is the sustainability of the resurgence in iPhone growth. There were high hopes among bulls that the iPhone 12 would drive a “supercycle” with an accelerated replacement cycle. Several analysts have noted that a clear consumer preference for the high end of the iPhone 12 line is driving up average selling prices, which should support a strong revenue quarter for the segment.\n“Given the later-than-seasonal launch of new iPhones in the fall of 2020, we believe iPhone demand will experience more favorable year-over-year comparisons this March quarter compared to past years,” writes Monness Crespi Hardt’s Brian White, who sees 47% iPhone revenue growth during the quarter.\nAnd if Apple pulls it all together? Apple could crush Street estimates, writes Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, who has an Overweight rating and a $158 price target on the stock, up 17% from Monday’s close of $134.72. She sees the top line above $80 billion, with all segments growing at least 19% year over year. She is especially bullish on Mac and iPad sales, with estimates far above consensus—53% for Macs and 52% for iPads. She also expects Apple to increase its dividend by 10% and expand its stock repurchase program by $60 billion.\nThat would certainly qualify as a job well done.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179303564,"gmtCreate":1626484544858,"gmtModify":1633926378313,"author":{"id":"3578610877384773","authorId":"3578610877384773","name":"Salibee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4171df5071ff91dad108e551fca14644","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3578610877384773","authorIdStr":"3578610877384773"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No surprise its top few. FAANG aint joking","listText":"No surprise its top few. FAANG aint joking","text":"No surprise its top few. FAANG aint joking","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/139ebf3ad26e02417ad5b8404c98ed8a","width":"1080","height":"3242"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179303564","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":850,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}