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CarolHo
2021-10-21
$滴滴(DIDI)$
为什么突然拉起来？
CarolHo
2021-08-19
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
跌出新天际
CarolHo
2021-07-01
$苏宁环球(000718)$
好奇怪，挂了单，到价佢卖不出，你们有试过这样吗？
CarolHo
2021-05-01
不够钱玩不起Amazon
抱歉，原内容已删除
CarolHo
2021-04-30
$南方航空(600029)$
还不升？
CarolHo
2021-04-13
$Zip(Z1P.AU)$
今天表现不错哦
CarolHo
2021-03-25
$中环球船务(SINO)$
还能再入吗？
CarolHo
2021-03-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
不要织毛衣啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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","text":"不够钱玩不起Amazon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101186920","repostId":"1196589457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196589457","pubTimestamp":1619770710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196589457?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 16:18","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为什么我会说Amazon是最值得长期持有的股票","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196589457","media":"一亩三分地海外...","summary":"Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，6年来从未抛售过","content":"<p>Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。</p><p>我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，<b>6年来从未抛售过</b>，到今天来看ROI还不错，Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一，<b>在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家</b>。</p><p>需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作，恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手阿里巴巴工作超过四年，<b>在retail和cloud方面有一些浅见可以分享</b>，在此抛砖引玉，请各位大佬斧正 ：）</p><p><b>一、商业模式</b></p><p>对比Google超过90%的收入来自广告，Amazon的商业模式要<b>健康的多，也更多元化</b>。</p><p>除了最基本的营业收入，还包括Marketplace的commission，Amazon的ads业务也试水了一段时间了，我认为这是对Google最大的打击，因为越来越多的人选择直接在Amazon.com上搜索商品，而不是通过Google。</p><p>去年Pichai在国会反垄断质询时，就举了此例将祸水引向Amazon，除此之外还有Amazon最核心和最赚钱的<b>AWS业务</b>，AWS的revenue仅仅只占Amazon总体revenue的10%，<b>却贡献了Amazon总利润的60%+</b>，足可见cash cow的地位。</p><p>而AWS在云计算处于绝对垄断的地位，为什么Azure和GCP包括Alibaba Cloud不会对AWS构成威胁，我后面会详细展开。</p><p>创新业务方面，Amazon的Kindle、Alexa、Go Store都是同行业最大，做的最好的，收入的多元化，让Amazon有着更健康的商业模式。</p><p>值得一提的是，<b>Alibaba选择了一条跟Amazon完全不同的商业模式</b>，Alibaba是C2C，也就是第三方卖家主导，这是中国国情决定的，也是<b>Amazon败走中国的关键因素</b>。</p><p>Alibaba超过90%的收入也是来自广告，在cainiao网络成立之前，阿里是不碰物流的，全部外包给第三方物流公司。</p><p>随着时间的推移，我们发现对物流缺乏管控会大大损伤消费者的体验，所以这些年像天猫超市、天猫国际等等业务，<b>都是自采自销，由cn在各地的仓储统一发货</b>，其实淘宝天猫头部商家也会根据阿里提供的销售预测提前备货到cn本地仓，加快物流的履约。</p><p>这一套体系<b>基本是照搬Amazon Fullfillment</b>，因为Amazon在物流方面已经深耕多年，这个世界上不可能有第二个公司能比Amazon做的更好了</p><p><b>二、商业护城河</b></p><p>如果今天美团给你一张大额优惠券，你可能就不会用doordash了，但是如果有另一家小的电商网站比Amazon便宜10%，<b>你或许还是会用Amazon</b>，因为你不确定小的网站物流是否高效，商品质量是否有保证，售后服务是否有Amazon这么好，其中还包括对消费者隐私的保护，这就是商业的护城河。</p><p>在我看来，Amazon的北美地区具有极高的商业护城河，让其他的公司根本没办法参与竞争。</p><p>首先是对比实体商店Amazon拥有<b>更低廉的价格</b>，通过prime会员提供次日达、影视、音乐等服务，同时<b>售后退款政策好到令人发指</b>。</p><p>如果你去看Jeff Bezos 1999年的访谈，他就提到Amazon从来不会care竞争对手在做什么，而且一如既往的为客户提供最好的体验，并且Jeff多次提到不会care短期的利益，<b>而且专注长期的利益</b>，Amazon在上市的前八年从来没有盈利过，通过压低价格让竞争对手破产、或者无法进入这个领域。</p><p>同样的套路还适用于AWS的发展，在Google靠着点击广告的印钞机赚的盆满钵满之时，看着AWS微薄的利润，根本提不起兴趣，其实这都是Jeff的障眼法，<b>Amazon凭借优质的用户体验和多年不赚钱的代价构建起了极其宽广的护城河</b>。</p><p>过去的几年你经常看到Facebook因为Snap的大火而股价大跌，因为TikTok忧心忡忡，但是你基本看不到有什么公司来挑战Amazon，这就是行业的门槛。</p><p>在今天的北美电商市场，<b>已经不可能有公司能挑战Amazon了</b>，甚至都不可能有公司有兴趣进入这个行业，因为根本没什么机会，就单单这套Fullfillment的体系，没有200亿美金的投入就别想弄起来。</p><p><b>三、云计算</b></p><p>AWS的故事可以说是科技行业这十五年来最精彩和最富有传奇色彩的故事。</p><p>为了解决大促后服务器资源剩余的问题，Amazon的几个天才工程师提出了云计算这个概念，并且深深的影响了这个时代。</p><p>现在绝大部分创业公司，包括明星创业公司例如Airbnb、Uber等等都是run on AWS，<b>AWS可能会深刻变革程序员这个行业</b>，未来不再需要很多的程序员，对于中小型公司可能只需要1-2个精通AWS配置的程序员就足够了。</p><p>十几年前一位来自南非的天才工程师，希望能回家工作，因此向公司提出辞呈，<b>Amazon为了挽留这位工程师，决定在南非首都开普敦开设第一间位于非洲的研发中心</b>，最初的员工只有他一个人，就是在这个远离西雅图的office，开发出了AWS最核心的EC2产品，今天的AWS市场份额是剩余第二名到第十名加起来的总和还要多。</p><p>阿里云在中国处于绝对垄断地位，即使是这样，全球的份额却不到AWS的10%，营收和利润就差的更远，并且因为仅仅是local的业务，而AWS面向全球，未来的增长潜力也差出去很多。</p><p>为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢？如果你参看微软的财报，微软是通过把office365的收入并表，借此来造成跟AWS差距在减少的假象，其实这是左手倒右手的把戏，并没有什么核心竞争力。</p><p>云计算最核心的是看Iaas层(Infrastructure as a service)的竞争，GCP和Azure根本上不了台面，Google效仿Azure将Google Suite的收入并表，带来股价的大涨，实际上后劲完全不足。</p><p>我记得我在阿里的时候，一位阿里云的高管就跟我说过，\"<b>在云计算这个行业，没有严格意义上的第二名，AWS代表整个行业</b>\"，事实上也确实如此。每次AWS reinvent上发布的新产品，总会在1-2年后出现在Azure和阿里云的产品库中。</p><p>就目前来看，微软、谷歌、阿里云在云计算方面并没有让我眼前一亮的产品，<b>谷歌其实是很有希望的</b>，在AWS Lambda横空出世之前Google的App Engine其实就是serverless的典型代表，可惜执行力差出去太多。</p><p>我曾经对GCP抱有希望，因为Google拥有深厚的技术功底，但是之前因为公司价值观退出国防部百亿美金大单的竞标，和一系列完全不成熟的行为，让我对GCP彻底丧失希望，云计算这块，谷歌不会做很久，不信我们拭目以待。</p><p>因为时间匆忙，就写这么多，其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。</p><p>比如被Jeff认为和AWS同样重要的Prime业务，比如Amazon的无人机送货业务，比如AWS 的marketplace业务，云产品不同于实体商品，这个marketplace很retail marketplace完全不一样。</p><p>商业世界其实很精彩～</p>","source":"lsy1619143762088","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么我会说Amazon是最值得长期持有的股票</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么我会说Amazon是最值得长期持有的股票\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 16:18 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NuSd_KE4RUP_GOAf4IAzSQ><strong>一亩三分地海外...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，6年来从未抛售过，到今天来看ROI还不错，Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一，在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家。需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作，恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手阿里巴巴...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NuSd_KE4RUP_GOAf4IAzSQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a7c3b01fe631a9615e5ce7fd89ba66","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NuSd_KE4RUP_GOAf4IAzSQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196589457","content_text":"Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员，这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票，6年来从未抛售过，到今天来看ROI还不错，Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一，在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家。需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作，恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手阿里巴巴工作超过四年，在retail和cloud方面有一些浅见可以分享，在此抛砖引玉，请各位大佬斧正 ：）一、商业模式对比Google超过90%的收入来自广告，Amazon的商业模式要健康的多，也更多元化。除了最基本的营业收入，还包括Marketplace的commission，Amazon的ads业务也试水了一段时间了，我认为这是对Google最大的打击，因为越来越多的人选择直接在Amazon.com上搜索商品，而不是通过Google。去年Pichai在国会反垄断质询时，就举了此例将祸水引向Amazon，除此之外还有Amazon最核心和最赚钱的AWS业务，AWS的revenue仅仅只占Amazon总体revenue的10%，却贡献了Amazon总利润的60%+，足可见cash cow的地位。而AWS在云计算处于绝对垄断的地位，为什么Azure和GCP包括Alibaba Cloud不会对AWS构成威胁，我后面会详细展开。创新业务方面，Amazon的Kindle、Alexa、Go Store都是同行业最大，做的最好的，收入的多元化，让Amazon有着更健康的商业模式。值得一提的是，Alibaba选择了一条跟Amazon完全不同的商业模式，Alibaba是C2C，也就是第三方卖家主导，这是中国国情决定的，也是Amazon败走中国的关键因素。Alibaba超过90%的收入也是来自广告，在cainiao网络成立之前，阿里是不碰物流的，全部外包给第三方物流公司。随着时间的推移，我们发现对物流缺乏管控会大大损伤消费者的体验，所以这些年像天猫超市、天猫国际等等业务，都是自采自销，由cn在各地的仓储统一发货，其实淘宝天猫头部商家也会根据阿里提供的销售预测提前备货到cn本地仓，加快物流的履约。这一套体系基本是照搬Amazon Fullfillment，因为Amazon在物流方面已经深耕多年，这个世界上不可能有第二个公司能比Amazon做的更好了二、商业护城河如果今天美团给你一张大额优惠券，你可能就不会用doordash了，但是如果有另一家小的电商网站比Amazon便宜10%，你或许还是会用Amazon，因为你不确定小的网站物流是否高效，商品质量是否有保证，售后服务是否有Amazon这么好，其中还包括对消费者隐私的保护，这就是商业的护城河。在我看来，Amazon的北美地区具有极高的商业护城河，让其他的公司根本没办法参与竞争。首先是对比实体商店Amazon拥有更低廉的价格，通过prime会员提供次日达、影视、音乐等服务，同时售后退款政策好到令人发指。如果你去看Jeff Bezos 1999年的访谈，他就提到Amazon从来不会care竞争对手在做什么，而且一如既往的为客户提供最好的体验，并且Jeff多次提到不会care短期的利益，而且专注长期的利益，Amazon在上市的前八年从来没有盈利过，通过压低价格让竞争对手破产、或者无法进入这个领域。同样的套路还适用于AWS的发展，在Google靠着点击广告的印钞机赚的盆满钵满之时，看着AWS微薄的利润，根本提不起兴趣，其实这都是Jeff的障眼法，Amazon凭借优质的用户体验和多年不赚钱的代价构建起了极其宽广的护城河。过去的几年你经常看到Facebook因为Snap的大火而股价大跌，因为TikTok忧心忡忡，但是你基本看不到有什么公司来挑战Amazon，这就是行业的门槛。在今天的北美电商市场，已经不可能有公司能挑战Amazon了，甚至都不可能有公司有兴趣进入这个行业，因为根本没什么机会，就单单这套Fullfillment的体系，没有200亿美金的投入就别想弄起来。三、云计算AWS的故事可以说是科技行业这十五年来最精彩和最富有传奇色彩的故事。为了解决大促后服务器资源剩余的问题，Amazon的几个天才工程师提出了云计算这个概念，并且深深的影响了这个时代。现在绝大部分创业公司，包括明星创业公司例如Airbnb、Uber等等都是run on AWS，AWS可能会深刻变革程序员这个行业，未来不再需要很多的程序员，对于中小型公司可能只需要1-2个精通AWS配置的程序员就足够了。十几年前一位来自南非的天才工程师，希望能回家工作，因此向公司提出辞呈，Amazon为了挽留这位工程师，决定在南非首都开普敦开设第一间位于非洲的研发中心，最初的员工只有他一个人，就是在这个远离西雅图的office，开发出了AWS最核心的EC2产品，今天的AWS市场份额是剩余第二名到第十名加起来的总和还要多。阿里云在中国处于绝对垄断地位，即使是这样，全球的份额却不到AWS的10%，营收和利润就差的更远，并且因为仅仅是local的业务，而AWS面向全球，未来的增长潜力也差出去很多。为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢？如果你参看微软的财报，微软是通过把office365的收入并表，借此来造成跟AWS差距在减少的假象，其实这是左手倒右手的把戏，并没有什么核心竞争力。云计算最核心的是看Iaas层(Infrastructure as a service)的竞争，GCP和Azure根本上不了台面，Google效仿Azure将Google Suite的收入并表，带来股价的大涨，实际上后劲完全不足。我记得我在阿里的时候，一位阿里云的高管就跟我说过，\"在云计算这个行业，没有严格意义上的第二名，AWS代表整个行业\"，事实上也确实如此。每次AWS reinvent上发布的新产品，总会在1-2年后出现在Azure和阿里云的产品库中。就目前来看，微软、谷歌、阿里云在云计算方面并没有让我眼前一亮的产品，谷歌其实是很有希望的，在AWS Lambda横空出世之前Google的App Engine其实就是serverless的典型代表，可惜执行力差出去太多。我曾经对GCP抱有希望，因为Google拥有深厚的技术功底，但是之前因为公司价值观退出国防部百亿美金大单的竞标，和一系列完全不成熟的行为，让我对GCP彻底丧失希望，云计算这块，谷歌不会做很久，不信我们拭目以待。因为时间匆忙，就写这么多，其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。比如被Jeff认为和AWS同样重要的Prime业务，比如Amazon的无人机送货业务，比如AWS 的marketplace业务，云产品不同于实体商品，这个marketplace很retail marketplace完全不一样。商业世界其实很精彩～","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838903162,"gmtCreate":1629362134756,"gmtModify":1631889922624,"author":{"id":"3577063384579790","authorId":"3577063384579790","name":"CarolHo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624f522720941d802ba8e71623d1b356","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>跌出新天际","listText":"<a 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