AhPohPoh的个人主页 - 老虎社区

AhPohPoh

AhPohPoh

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IP属地：未知

152关注

20粉丝

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0勋章

2021-12-16

Hahahahahah

2021-12-16

Ha

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-03

S

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-03

J

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-02

H

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-01

Hgf

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-01

H

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-31

Bashah

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-27

Ha//@AhPohPoh:Hah

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-05

Hah

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

Ahahhaha

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

Hahhaha

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

Hahahahahahah

2021-06-13

Hahaha

2021-06-12

Ahhahaha

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-04

Hahahah

2021-06-01

HAHAHHAHA

2021-05-25

Hhhhh

2021-05-23

Hhhaha

2021-05-20

Hahahha

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? 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All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849886914,"gmtCreate":1635742335989,"gmtModify":1635742336091,"author":{"id":"3571450871303523","authorId":"3571450871303523","name":"AhPohPoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b36202405995eaf4d3e37dcb3d06586","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571450871303523","authorIdStr":"3571450871303523"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hgf","listText":"Hgf","text":"Hgf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849886914","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? 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All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. 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MY POST AND COMMENT PLEASE&nbsp;","listText":"LIKE MY POST AND COMMENT PLEASE&nbsp;","text":"LIKE MY POST AND COMMENT PLEASE","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":45,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382398384","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382257914,"gmtCreate":1613457028838,"gmtModify":1631890607469,"author":{"id":"3571450871303523","authorId":"3571450871303523","name":"AhPohPoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b36202405995eaf4d3e37dcb3d06586","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571450871303523","authorIdStr":"3571450871303523"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE MY COMMENT","listText":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE MY COMMENT","text":"PLEASE HELP ME TO LIKE MY COMMENT","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":33,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382257914","repostId":"1121326703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121326703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613456527,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121326703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 14:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但忽略了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121326703","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how ","content":"<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>观看长期失业者的这一衡量标准</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>如今华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上再花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人则担心自己下降的速度不够快，担心挥之不去的伤疤会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这两个群体可能都是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长至秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但是，随着公司利用冲击引入节省成本的技术，随着消费者从封锁中走出来，养成新的习惯，同样的旧工作岗位将不会全部被填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于较低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，治愈经济创伤需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 COVID-19 大流行病对去年的经济来说令人震惊，但全世界的同步政策反应却更加令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几个高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有这些钱在世界各地晃动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，追随国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年 3 月 14.7% 的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康且债务较低。有了额外的政府支持，贫困家庭的收入甚至略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬天变成春天，美国人一有第二次机会，就计划疯狂购物和异国情调的旅行，以控制他们的幽居热。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>咔嘣!</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心设想是今年实现稳定复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长，超过国会预算办公室3.7%的最新预测。失业率应该会从目前的 6.3% 有所下降，但这将是一个艰难的过程，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（包括失业超过 27 周的美国人）的绝对值和占总失业人数的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动参与率也大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到商场时，许多失去的工作岗位确实可能会再次出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到 20 世纪 60 年代的故事的一部分，当时 25-54 岁的男性（所谓的 “黄金年龄 ”）开始退出劳动力市场，原因是全球竞争、技术创新和工会衰弱等复杂因素共同作用。危机爆发时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。尽管经济复苏仍在继续，但一月份离开劳动力市场的人中约有 80% 是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的经济衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能会更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来降低运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将带来进一步的破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当经济复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能组合。并不是说空姐不能在网上零售商的物流中心获得地面工作，但这绝不是自动的，也不舒服。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求恢复时让他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，情况就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>即使有另一个刺激计划，这些问题也不是可以轻易解决的。正如经济学家马尔科·安农齐亚塔（Marco Annunziata）指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的激励。进步也需要对培训和教育进行投资，可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，如果你想看涨期权的话，“好消息”是这些是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国劳动力继续恶化，这对长期增长产生了各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但忽略了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe stock market rightly sees an economic rebound — but is overlooking these worrisome details<blockquote>股市正确地看到了经济反弹，但忽略了这些令人担忧的细节</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 14:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed</p><p><blockquote>观看长期失业者的这一衡量标准</blockquote></p><p> The hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.</p><p><blockquote>如今华盛顿最热门的问题是美国应该在复苏上再花多少钱，这是一个经典的数据罗夏测验。一些人盯着不断下降的失业率，认为经济正在恢复正常。其他人则担心自己下降的速度不够快，担心挥之不去的伤疤会损害长期增长。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market&nbsp;certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，这两个群体可能都是对的。近期复苏看起来相当强劲，特别是如果另一项刺激计划将提高的失业救济金延长至秋季。股市当然感觉到一个辉煌的夏天即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> But as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.</p><p><blockquote>但是，随着公司利用冲击引入节省成本的技术，随着消费者从封锁中走出来，养成新的习惯，同样的旧工作岗位将不会全部被填补。这场危机将让更多的人满足于较低的工资或完全退出劳动力市场，治愈经济创伤需要的不仅仅是砸钱。</blockquote></p><p> As shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 COVID-19 大流行病对去年的经济来说令人震惊，但全世界的同步政策反应却更加令人惊讶。央行降息，财政部削减支票，寻找疫苗的惊人努力现在已经提供了几个高效的选择。</blockquote></p><p> With all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the&nbsp;European Commission&nbsp;upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund&nbsp;and the&nbsp;Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.</p><p><blockquote>随着所有这些钱在世界各地晃动，我们怎么能不期待大幅反弹呢？就连欧盟委员会的预言家上周也上调了经济预测，追随国际货币基金组织和经济合作与发展组织同行设定的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.</p><p><blockquote>美国失业率较去年 3 月 14.7% 的峰值下降了一半以上，而家庭储蓄健康且债务较低。有了额外的政府支持，贫困家庭的收入甚至略高。大公司现金充裕，银行有充足的放贷能力。随着冬天变成春天，美国人一有第二次机会，就计划疯狂购物和异国情调的旅行，以控制他们的幽居热。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ka-BOOM!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>咔嘣!</b></blockquote></p><p> Our central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the&nbsp;Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.</p><p><blockquote>我们的核心设想是今年实现稳定复苏，另一项刺激计划将推动经济增长，超过国会预算办公室3.7%的最新预测。失业率应该会从目前的 6.3% 有所下降，但这将是一个艰难的过程，因为劳动力数据中的细节显示了更令人担忧的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，长期失业率（包括失业超过 27 周的美国人）的绝对值和占总失业人数的百分比继续上升。在全球金融危机后刚刚开始复苏后，劳动参与率也大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34b7d431bf277dd17f778f2af110445c\" tg-width=\"981\" tg-height=\"639\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Many of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a&nbsp;story that stretches back to the 1960s&nbsp;when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.</p><p><blockquote>当所有这些人回到商场时，许多失去的工作岗位确实可能会再次出现。但其中许多趋势都是一个可以追溯到 20 世纪 60 年代的故事的一部分，当时 25-54 岁的男性（所谓的 “黄金年龄 ”）开始退出劳动力市场，原因是全球竞争、技术创新和工会衰弱等复杂因素共同作用。危机爆发时，其中一些趋势才刚刚改善。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand&nbsp;the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some&nbsp;80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，我们才刚刚开始理解职业女性所受到的冲击。尽管经济复苏仍在继续，但一月份离开劳动力市场的人中约有 80% 是女性。</blockquote></p><p> All recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.</p><p><blockquote>所有的经济衰退都会加剧就业和失业者之间的不匹配，但这次可能会更糟。当危机来袭时，公司通常会增加新技术来降低运营成本。然而，这一次，大流行后新的消费者模式和偏好将带来进一步的破坏。</blockquote></p><p> When the recovery comes, as a&nbsp;study&nbsp;by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.</p><p><blockquote>正如纽约联邦储备银行的一项研究指出的那样，当经济复苏到来时，新的工作岗位将不适合那些被解雇的人的技能组合。并不是说空姐不能在网上零售商的物流中心获得地面工作，但这绝不是自动的，也不舒服。</blockquote></p><p> And, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.</p><p><blockquote>而且，这不仅仅是训练的问题。如果他们的前雇主不在需求恢复时让他们重返工作岗位，那么寻找工作的时间将会更长。如果前雇主破产了，情况就更难了。根据一项指标，自去年1月以来，近三分之一的小企业已经倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> These are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata&nbsp;points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.</p><p><blockquote>即使有另一个刺激计划，这些问题也不是可以轻易解决的。正如经济学家马尔科·安农齐亚塔（Marco Annunziata）指出的那样，长期失业者尤其需要足够的支持，而不会削弱重返劳动力市场的激励。进步也需要对培训和教育进行投资，可能需要很长时间才能取得成果。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.&nbsp; The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political stability.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说，如果你想看涨期权的话，“好消息”是这些是长期趋势，不太可能削弱近期市场回报。坏消息是，从许多方面来看，美国劳动力继续恶化，这对长期增长产生了各种影响，更不用说政治稳定了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-rightly-sees-an-economic-rebound-but-is-overlooking-these-worrisome-details-11613400002?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1121326703","content_text":"Watch this measure of the long-term unemployed\nThe hottest question in Washington these days is how much more America should spend on recovery, and it’s a classic data Rorschach test. Some stare at the falling unemployment numbers and see an economy well on its way to normal. Others worry they’re not falling fast enough and fear that lingering scars will hurt long-term growth.\nIn fact, both groups may be right. The near-term recovery looks quite strong, especially if another stimulus package extends enhanced unemployment benefits into the fall. And the stock market certainly senses that a glorious summer is coming into view.\nBut as companies take advantage of the shock to introduce cost-saving technologies and as consumers emerge from lockdowns with new habits, the same old jobs won’t all be there to fill. The crisis will leave more people settling for lower wages or dropping out of the labor force altogether, and it will take more than throwing money at the problem to heal the economic wounds.\nAs shocking as the COVID-19 pandemic was for last year’s economy, the world’s synchronized policy response was even more surprising. Central banks cut rates, finance ministries cut checks and an astonishing effort to find a vaccine has now delivered several highly effective options.\nWith all that money sloshing around the world, how can we not expect a sharp rebound? Even the seers at the European Commission upgraded economic forecasts last week, following a trend set by their counterparts at the International Monetary Fund and the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development.\nU.S. unemployment has more than halved from its 14.7% peak last March, while household savings are healthy and debts are low. Poorer households even report slightly higher incomes with that extra government support. Larger firms are awash in cash and banks have plenty of capacity to lend. As winter turns to spring, Americans are managing their cabin fever with plans for shopping sprees and exotic travel just as soon as they get that second shot.\nKa-BOOM!\nOur central scenario is for a steady recovery this year, with another stimulus package that will boost growth above the Congressional Budget Office’s fresh 3.7% forecast. Unemployment should drift lower from the current 6.3% rate, but it’s going to be tough going because the details in the labor data show something far more worrying.\nSpecifically, the long-term unemployment rate, which counts those Americans who have been out of work for more than 27 weeks, continues to rise in absolute terms and as a percentage of the overall unemployed. The labor participation rate has also taken a sharp spike lower, after just starting to recover following the global financial crisis.\n\nMany of these lost jobs may indeed re-appear when all those people head back to the mall. But many of these trends are part of a story that stretches back to the 1960s when men aged 25-54 (so-called “prime age”) began falling out of the workforce because of a complex brew of forces that included global competition, technological innovation and weakening labor unions. Some of these trends were only just improving when the crisis hit.\nMeanwhile, we are only just beginning to understand the shock delivered to working women. Even as the recovery takes hold, some 80% of those who left the workforce in January were female.\nAll recessions aggravate the mismatch between the jobs and the jobless, but this one may be worse. When crisis strikes, companies often add new technologies to cut operating costs. This time, though, there will be further disruption from new post-pandemic consumer patterns and preferences.\nWhen the recovery comes, as a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York points out, the new jobs won’t fit the skill sets of those who were let go. It’s not that a flight attendant can’t get land work at an online retailer’s logistics center, but it’s hardly automatic or comfortable.\nAnd, it’s not just a question of training. If their former employer doesn’t call them back to work as demand recovers, the hunt will be even longer. If the former employer went bankrupt, it’s even harder.By one measure, nearly a third of small businesses have closed since last January.\nThese are not issues that can be addressed easily even with another stimulus package. The long-term unemployed, in particular, need support that is sufficient without undercutting incentives to return to the workforce, as economist Marco Annunziata points out. Progress will require investment in training and education, too, and may take a long time to deliver results.\nFor investors, the “good news,” if you want to call it that, is that these are long-standing trends that won’t likely undercut near-term market returns.  The bad news is that by many measures, America’s workforce continues to deteriorate with all sorts of implications for long-term growth, let alone political 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