Terrens的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Terrens

Terrens

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15粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2021-12-12

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

Lucid等六只股将加入纳指100，有望跑赢大盘

2021-11-02

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-30

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-06-30

😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-29

😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-27

😂

国际油价“高歌猛进”，市场静待下周欧佩克+会议

2021-06-26

😂

达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中

2021-06-25

Ok//@Kenwen: k

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-25

😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

[开心]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-22

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-21

😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-20

[财迷]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-18

😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-17

[财迷]

美联储点阵图：中位数预期到2023年底美联储将加息两次

2021-06-15

😂

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

[财迷]

风向有变！市场为何突然不怕通胀和央行紧缩了？

2021-06-13

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-12

[得意]

老虎证券技术副总裁柳锴：技术需始终领先业务半个身位

2021-06-10

[财迷]

【异动】零售商板块走高，梅西百货涨超7%

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Lucid等六只股将加入纳指100，有望跑赢大盘","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190674263","media":"智通财经","summary":"12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、飞塔信息、Palo Alto Networks、Zscaler和Datadog将被纳入纳斯达克1","content":"<p>12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTNT\">飞塔信息</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>、Zscaler和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a>将被纳入纳斯达克100指数。</p>\n<p>这六家公司将取代CDW Crop、福克斯公司、塞纳、Check Point软件、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">携程网</a>和因塞特。</p>\n<p>总体而言，被纳入纳斯达克100指数可以改善企业的流动性，并通过指数基金提供更广泛的投资者兴趣基础。据分析，从宣布前到纳入指数后的5天里，股票平均跑赢大盘1%。从历史上看，在接下来的一年里，它们的表现也优于标普500指数。</p>\n<p>从估值上看，即将加入纳斯达克100指数的6只新成分股价格不菲，只有Palo三年内的市盈率低于50。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f146561ec1f93915ab9e5fe0142fe5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>从资产负债表来看，Lucid债务和股东权益的比例最低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff9462a980435733166700c43b18dee\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid等六只股将加入纳指100，有望跑赢大盘</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid等六只股将加入纳指100，有望跑赢大盘\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-12 14:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/620279.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、飞塔信息、Palo Alto Networks、Zscaler和Datadog将被纳入纳斯达克100指数。\n这六家公司将取代CDW Crop、福克斯公司、塞纳、Check Point软件、携程网和因塞特。\n总体而言，被纳入纳斯达克100指数可以改善企业的流动性，并通过指数基金提供更广泛的投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/620279.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/620279.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190674263","content_text":"12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、飞塔信息、Palo Alto Networks、Zscaler和Datadog将被纳入纳斯达克100指数。\n这六家公司将取代CDW Crop、福克斯公司、塞纳、Check Point软件、携程网和因塞特。\n总体而言，被纳入纳斯达克100指数可以改善企业的流动性，并通过指数基金提供更广泛的投资者兴趣基础。据分析，从宣布前到纳入指数后的5天里，股票平均跑赢大盘1%。从历史上看，在接下来的一年里，它们的表现也优于标普500指数。\n从估值上看，即将加入纳斯达克100指数的6只新成分股价格不菲，只有Palo三年内的市盈率低于50。\n\n从资产负债表来看，Lucid债务和股东权益的比例最低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843877568,"gmtCreate":1635820738883,"gmtModify":1635820738986,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":81,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843877568","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. 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Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840964614,"gmtCreate":1635576680497,"gmtModify":1635576680585,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840964614","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while 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08:35","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"国际油价“高歌猛进”，市场静待下周欧佩克+会议","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181161116","media":"期货日报","summary":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货","content":"<div>\n<p>本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"qihuoribao","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国际油价“高歌猛进”，市场静待下周欧佩克+会议</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n国际油价“高歌猛进”，市场静待下周欧佩克+会议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 08:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef375710aa7a4298de56c8827d8139df","relate_stocks":{"UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.cls.cn/detail/777596","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181161116","content_text":"本周，受国际油价持续上涨影响，能化系期货品种大幅走强，但板块间各品种走势却出现分化。其中，LPG和沥青期货走势偏强。\n“与原油相比，今年沥青一直处于偏弱状态，主要是自身基本面出了较大的问题。”招金期货分析师于竼森告诉期货日报记者，沥青行业的开工率并没有超越去年，甚至比往年同期还要偏低，需求一直未能启动，且库存逼近近8年来的历史高位。\n在于竼森看来，当前仍处于雨季，沥青的实际需求偏弱，库存也在4季度前很难出现下滑，因此沥青期货本周的强势上涨，更多是受油价上涨的影响，成本提高推动沥青价格上涨。\n此外，消息面的利好来自于市场关于国家针对地炼企业原油配额缩减问题的解读。部分机构认为，国家今年1—2批次进口原油配额相对去年有了明显的缩量，叠加前期针对稀释沥青的加税问题，会造成地炼企业原材料价格上涨及原材料紧缺，从而导致后期的沥青产量会有所下滑。那么在旺季来临之后，沥青可能会面临比较快速的去库存，而不是前期预期的全年都处于高库存之下。\n尽管沥青本周表现极为强势，远强于其他油品。但有业内人士认为沥青盘面明显超涨，后期走势可能相对于其他油品更弱。\n过去一周，随着市场逐步认识到“稀释沥青”可能长期短缺的问题，对于远期沥青炼厂供应产生担忧，市场看多情绪加重。但在国泰君安期货分析师黄柳楠看来，短期交易视角不应过分聚焦远期市场。“当前山东地区现货对于沥青期货主力合约2109合约的贴水已经超过300元/吨，无风险套利窗口大幅敞开，且沥青与高、低硫燃料油的价差也逼近今年以来的高位，估值已经偏高。”\n“从供需面看，当前绝对库存依旧处于历史最高位，未来2个月不太可能出现缺货的情况，因此沥青利润修复的驱动并不强。”黄柳楠表示，由于今年国内信用扩张停滞，基建工程减少，未来2个月需求端可能不会有逆季节性的扩张，近两日盘面超涨的溢价可能在未来逐步回吐。“考虑到油价下半年重心上移的确定性，沥青价格未来挑战4000元/吨的可能性依旧较大，只是短期背离油价的强势难以持续。”\n值得注意的是，本周LPG期货价格连创新高。东证期货衍生品研究院大宗商品研究主管金晓告诉期货日报记者，一方面，受益于油价持续上涨，相应抬升了LPG期价中枢。另一方面，海外LPG掉期价格在沙特传出出口收紧的消息刺激下一路狂奔。“即将出台的7月沙特CP丙烷价格预计会超过620美元/吨，较上月大涨近100美元/吨，未来进口成本增加的预期是近期国内期价上行的重要驱动。”\nLPG消费本身有一定的季节性，随着主力合约从淡季逐渐转入旺季，市场对旺季抱有期待，乐观情绪在市场中占主导。\n在金晓看来，LPG基本面预期较好。从最新的气象预测来看今年秋冬大概率是中性状态，在12月前后有略超50%的概率转为拉尼娜，未来随着天气转冷燃料消费将有正常的季节性回升。在化工原料需求上，今年全年国内预计有4套PDH新装置投产，此外还有一些可灵活切换原料的乙烯裂解新装置未来可以消化前端炼能扩张带来的LPG国产气增量。“总体上，国内需求增速快于供给增速。这部分需求缺口会对应到国内的进口气增量，是全球需求增量的重要组成部分，亚洲地区LPG价格受到支撑，对国内也意味着进口成本相比去年同期易涨难跌。”\n不过，目前LPG基本面国内外分化的格局短期内仍将持续。据国投安信期货分析师李祖智介绍，国内市场受广州疫情和国产气外放压力增长的影响，价格已显疲态，终端销售压力不断放大。但国际市场方面，美国库存维持低位，而中东短期内增产预期仍不明朗，年内主要潜在供给增量的伊朗也因谈判节奏放缓而有所推迟，国际市场紧平衡格局下的推高动力仍然存在。“在市场格局暂无拐点迹象，同时原油强势的背景下，盘面仍有一定上涨空间。”\n“LPG期价从半年度的时间维度上我们觉得上方仍有空间但过程可能会波折。”金晓认为，由于这一轮海外价格是偏事件驱动的推涨，目前LPG期价位置相对高位，短期要防范沙特消息反转供给边际宽松的回调风险。未来供需基本面环比改善预期可能是直到旺季前半段市场的主要交易逻辑。\n业内人士建议投资者关注下周即将举行的OPEC+会议，这是当前能化市场当前关注的焦点。如果增产幅度超出预期，油价回调的可能性依旧存在，也将一定程度上影响能化板块其他品种的价格走势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DDG":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9,"USO":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"UCO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125696873,"gmtCreate":1624670526592,"gmtModify":1631891512665,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125696873","repostId":"1186578125","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186578125","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624879503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186578125?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 19:25","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186578125","media":"人民币交易与研究","summary":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，","content":"<p>全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。</p>\n<p>在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed46d81d71867f2d1eb8b3b9ad012779\" tg-width=\"532\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。</p>\n<p>事实上，早在5月中旬时，达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究，详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”，包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等：</p>\n<p>1． 相对传统的衡量标准，价格有多高？</p>\n<p>2． 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况？</p>\n<p>3． 有多少新买家（即之前不在市场里的人）进入了市场？</p>\n<p>4． 看涨情绪有多普遍？</p>\n<p>5． 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑？</p>\n<p>6． 买家是否过度进行远期交易（如建立库存、签订远期协议等）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b89447f632ae50e578dd9ebcd007795e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"306\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中？》的视频演讲全文：</p>\n<p>大家好，很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉（基金会）帮助过的人来到这里。</p>\n<p>你们知道，知道罗宾汉，是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯，当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光，他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区（Bed Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。</p>\n<p>我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。</p>\n<p>在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。</p>\n<p>首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。</p>\n<p>比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。</p>\n<p>第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。</p>\n<p>您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。</p>\n<p>第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。</p>\n<p>所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。</p>\n<p>而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。</p>\n<p>我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。</p>\n<p>这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c4f2ff86c22e19d1a051e96d120c0fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ebf9f9bfdd5c982106b5c4f97acf635\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。</p>\n<p>现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15720e9f5f0240be2ddeda3d14230eaa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。</p>\n<p>下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5d3d3c839ca42009c377a3eed7c9c3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。</p>\n<p>其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。</p>\n<p>这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。</p>\n<p>所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。</p>","source":"lsy1574157197600","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n达里奥最新演讲：股市眼下并不一定处于泡沫中\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 19:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w><strong>人民币交易与研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61ac6f61084482a9c0c70291c78e92f5","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lv14Xv-iB491-ddK3pdX_w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186578125","content_text":"全球最大对冲基金桥水创始人达里奥6月24日连发两篇推文，介绍自己衡量泡沫的六项指标，并发布了一个10分钟的视频阐述自己对当下股市泡沫的看法。\n在这个应罗宾汉基金会要求解释股票泡沫的视频中，达里奥表示，虽然指标显示一些股票目前“存在泡沫”，但股市眼下不一定处于泡沫中。\n\n达里奥在推文中写道，“我所说的泡沫是指不可持续的高价，我用六项指标来衡量它”，并指出投资者需关注买家杠杆水平和新买家数量等迹象。\n事实上，早在5月中旬时，达里奥就曾在公众号分享了他对股市泡沫的研究，详述了这六种系统性“泡沫指标”，包括价格、看涨情绪、杠杆高低等：\n1． 相对传统的衡量标准，价格有多高？\n2． 价格是否反映了不可持续的状况？\n3． 有多少新买家（即之前不在市场里的人）进入了市场？\n4． 看涨情绪有多普遍？\n5． 交易是否依赖高杠杆的支撑？\n6． 买家是否过度进行远期交易（如建立库存、签订远期协议等）来投机或保护自己免受未来价格上涨的影响？\n\n以下是这个名为《股市目前是否处于泡沫中？》的视频演讲全文：\n大家好，很高兴能代表所有被罗宾汉（基金会）帮助过的人来到这里。\n你们知道，知道罗宾汉，是因为我认识保罗·都铎·琼斯，当时罗宾汉是他眼里的一抹微光，他会在贝德福德-斯图文森特街区（Bed Stuy）和孩子们一起打篮球，我很幸运能够看到他和罗宾汉基金的所有工作人员，以一种非常个人化和高效的方式来帮助减轻美国的贫困，并且能够成为其中的一员。你们所做的一切都很棒，所以我只想感谢你们所做的一切，并且告诉你们能够来到这里并尽我的微薄之力，我有多么高兴。\n我被要求谈论泡沫，市场、股市是否处于泡沫中，以及什么样的泡沫。我只想给你们一些关于这个问题的想法，我只有大约10分钟的时间。所以我想讲快点，几年前，我开始思考：什么是泡沫？当我们身处泡沫中时，我所说的泡沫是指什么？因为在我50年的投资生涯中，我看到了很多泡沫。\n在我脑海中，有六件事是我基本上认为会导致产生泡沫的，我将他们一一列举出来。现在，看着它们，以便您知道我在说什么。\n首先，您知道，我们的价格相对于传统的价格衡量标准有多高是一个考虑因素。例如，你知道我们的PSI或收益率之类的东西，这是一个考虑因素，但这不是我所说的泡沫。\n比方说，可能出现价格高回报低的现象，而且这种情况可以持续很长时间，但这并不意味着泡沫会破灭，只是其中一个组成因素。\n第二，价格是反映不可持续的条件，这里指的是买方的性质，谁在买入和如何买入，不可持续的条件会产生了价格调整或下跌，然后就出现了第三个投机因素——市场上的新买家被吸引了。\n您知道，这就像鸡尾酒会，有些从不参加的人出现了，也就是投资了某些资产，可能是科技股，也可能是房地产，但无论如何，每个人都想，没有持有这些东西会让他们觉得自己很蠢，诸如此类。\n第五项是大额购买远期“合约”，比如有人买了他们不了解的公寓，因为他们认为公寓会上涨，或者用大规模交易大宗商品的年代来举例。我会观察那些使用大宗商品的人，他们购买了大量远期合约。换句话说，购买库存以保护自己免受价格上涨的影响。\n所以当他们离场的时候——正如我们最近在大宗商品市场看到的——当他们抛售远期合约时，价格持续下跌，他们会说“我也不想要它”。\n而当价格上涨时，他们会说我们要进行溢价保护，对冲价格上涨。所以，延长了这些远期购买的买家是一个（泡沫）指标。\n我用这张表显示整个股市，我把这个框架基本上应用到所有资产上，并且使用一种系统化的方法，试图判断哪些处在泡沫中。在我看来，在各种各样的股票中，有些存在泡沫，有些则没有，而整个股市正如这张图表所显示的。\n这张图表可以追溯到1910年，它是一个彰显泡沫程度的指标。你可以看到当前是有泡沫的，但没有2000年和1929年那么高，不过高于2007年。\n\n让我们看看存在泡沫的股票，根据这些标准，很多股票没有泡沫。\n\n这张图表追溯到1995年，与2000年相比，前1000名的企业市值存在泡沫比例约为5%，整个标普500指数存在泡沫的份额约为2%，虽然不如2000年高，但比2007年高。\n现在来看下一张显示了泡沫股票的图表。\n\n我把这些泡沫股票与标准普尔500指数分离，可以看到泡沫股在大盘中的比例下降，我相信这种情况很可能会持续下去，但目前处于泡沫之中。其中一个问题是，泡沫可以扩张和收缩，时机是个大问题。\n下面这张图表可以追溯到1900年，上图显示的是债务与国内生产总值（GDP）之比，下图中蓝线显示的是利率，红线显示印钞规模，也就是流入的货币量。所以你可以看到当债务累加时，就像现在的情况，并且实施近零利率，这两种情况同时存在时就会大肆印钞。\n\n这是泡沫的一个关键因素，因为有大量的流动性进入市场，然后有很多资金哄抬各种各样的资产价格，所以你可以看到，当蓝线触及零时，红线大幅上行。大量流动性，大量的债务融资和债务货币化形成了一个典型的泡沫。\n其他可能产生泡沫的因素则是新股上市，特别是如果它们没有盈利，或者是在许多情况下没有盈利的前景。\n这些也是泡沫的考虑因素，所以我想说，你不能说当前的股市处于最高程度的泡沫，你必须区分哪些股票正处于泡沫中、或者一直处于泡沫中；哪些股票没有，实际上目前有许多股票并没有处于泡沫中。\n所以我希望这能让你对泡沫有所了解、我如何看待它们以及我们目前处于什么位置。谢谢。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126746181,"gmtCreate":1624586066243,"gmtModify":1631891512675,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok//<a 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02:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美联储点阵图：中位数预期到2023年底美联储将加息两次","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109204514","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将","content":"<p>虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。</p> \n<p>美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。</p> \n<p>和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。</p> \n<p>会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：</p> \n<ul> \n <li>在18名发布预期的官员中，<b>本次有7人预计2022年将加息</b>，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，<b>人数占比将近40%。</b></li> \n <li>本次18人中有<b>13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%</b>，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人<b>。</b></li> \n <li><b>在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，</b>人数<b>占比超过61%</b>，比上次这样预期者多5人，<b>预计届时利率超过1%的有5人</b>，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数<b>占比将近30%</b>。</li> \n</ul> \n<p>这意味着，<b>若一次加息25个基点</b>，那么，<b>本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息</b>。</p> \n<p>在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。</p> \n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储点阵图：中位数预期到2023年底美联储将加息两次</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储点阵图：中位数预期到2023年底美联储将加息两次\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。</p> \n<p>美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。</p> \n<p>和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。</p> \n<p>会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：</p> \n<ul> \n <li>在18名发布预期的官员中，<b>本次有7人预计2022年将加息</b>，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，<b>人数占比将近40%。</b></li> \n <li>本次18人中有<b>13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%</b>，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人<b>。</b></li> \n <li><b>在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，</b>人数<b>占比超过61%</b>，比上次这样预期者多5人，<b>预计届时利率超过1%的有5人</b>，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数<b>占比将近30%</b>。</li> \n</ul> \n<p>这意味着，<b>若一次加息25个基点</b>，那么，<b>本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息</b>。</p> \n<p>在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。</p> \n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109204514","content_text":"虽然依然保持近零利率和QE购债规模不变，但本周美联储会议释放了两年后、即2023年较有可能加息不止一次的明显信号。\n美东时间6月16日周三，美联储会后公布，联储货币政策委员会FOMC的委员一致同意，将政策利率联邦基金利率的目标水平保持在0-0.25%不变，符合市场预期，同时将超额准备金利率（IOER）和贴现利率仍分别维持在0.10%和0.25%。\n和前八次会后声明一样，美联储继续承诺，将为了支持美国经济而运用联储“所有范围”的政策工具。\n会后公布的点阵图显示，和今年3月上次发布的点阵图一样，所有美联储官员均预计今年利率保持不变，在2023年之后的更长时间内，多数联储官员预计利率会升至2.5%，高于联储长期目标2%。不同于上次点阵图的是：\n\n在18名发布预期的官员中，本次有7人预计2022年将加息，比上次这样预期的人数多3人，人数占比将近40%。\n本次18人中有13人预计2023年会加息，人数占比超过72%，比上次预期2023年加息者多6人。\n在预计2023年加息的这13人中，有11人预计届时利率将超过0.5%，人数占比超过61%，比上次这样预期者多5人，预计届时利率超过1%的有5人，比上次这样预期者多3人，人数占比将近30%。\n\n这意味着，若一次加息25个基点，那么，本次有六成以上的多数官员都预计，到2023年末，美联储将在当前基础上至少两次加息。\n在美东下午2点FOMC决策公布后，10年期美债收益率升破1.50%和1.51%两道关口，日内转涨并升近2个基点。美股跌幅扩大，道指跌近370点或超1%，标普500指数跌近1%，纳指跌0.7%。5分钟后，道指跌幅小幅收窄至285点，标普500指数和纳指均跌0.7%。金银跳水，现货黄金日内重新下跌0.5%并失守1850美元，短线跌超10美元。比特币跌幅收窄，重回3.9万美元上方，美元指数升破90.70和90.80两道关口，刷新一个月高位。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184884082,"gmtCreate":1623706956046,"gmtModify":1631892689725,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184884082","repostId":"1109157353","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182768448,"gmtCreate":1623621374384,"gmtModify":1631892689736,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182768448","repostId":"1117786168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117786168","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623566813,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117786168?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 14:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"风向有变！市场为何突然不怕通胀和央行紧缩了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117786168","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场相信央行不会在这种特殊的通胀结构下提前紧缩。","content":"<p>作者：张泽一</p>\n<p>美国通胀数据创下2008年以来的新高，但市场画风却不一样了，投资者疯狂涌入美国国债市场，美股也在持续上涨...到底是怎么了？通胀爆表也不担心央行紧缩了？</p>\n<p><b>发生了什么？</b></p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前报道，美国五月CPI同比大涨5%，预期值仅为4.7%，增速创下2008年8月以来最高值，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长3.8%，增速创下1992年以来的新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b94b4808fd4216c379450dd16bab979\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但市场反映却并没有像3月一样恐慌：十年期美债收益率本周下跌10个BP至1.45%，刷新自去年6月以来的最大周度跌幅，而且是连跌四周。美债收益率曲线也越来越平坦，两年期和十年期之间国债收益率价差创今年2月来新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40460695fe7a71d74ffc3330453d974b\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外，在美股市场上，科技股又卷土重来。纳指5个交易日内上涨1.8%，且为连续第4周上涨，今年来收益超过9%，标普500上涨至5月初以来的首个历史高点，FAANG本周上涨0.6%，而价值股表现暗淡，银行股本周下跌2.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8a75017ff850dc25c978779cb8289a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">更值得关注的是，十年期通胀预期录得2020年4月以来最大周跌幅，下跌了8个BP至2.34%，该指标经常被视为预期通胀率的衡量指标，取的是国债和通胀保值债券（TIPS）的收益率之差。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4beaee579cb0afa605b60b3d8aa7fe1\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀担忧怎么突然就消退了？</b></p>\n<p>通胀指标确实爆表了，但市场表现以及通胀预期的下降实实在在的反映了当前的市场心理：美联储或许说的没错，通胀只是暂时的，紧缩暂时也没必要。</p>\n<p>或许换句话来说更好理解：不是市场不担心通胀了，而是不担心这种结构的通胀会引发美联储提前紧缩了。</p>\n<p><b>首先美国通胀或将持续维持高位。</b></p>\n<p>如果将本次通胀大涨分拆来看的话，可以看到交运和住房分项对CPI的环比贡献持续上升。其中交运中又以汽车价格上行贡献了主要涨幅，这体现了缺芯的影响仍在持续；另一方面住房分项又以租金为代表，体现了劳动力回流大城市工作的影响。这些现象短期内恐难以消退。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/133dd860cd82af3ef62b03a0fd429c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国经济复苏结构也由前期的商品消费转移至服务消费，这可以从美国酒店业、餐饮服务业的复苏观察到：例如5月ISM服务业指数录得64，创下历史新高；小非农ADP中就业人数增加97.8万，而服务业提供了85万个工作岗位。</p>\n<p>但这也加剧了美国劳动力供需错配的问题，华尔街见闻此前报道，美国企业及政府单位发布的空缺岗位创下历史新高，达到930万个，但实际到岗的人数远远不足。这似乎证明了美国政府此前大规模发钱导致失业员工“不愿回去工作”，从而导致劳动力供需错配，更加剧了“工资通胀”压力。</p>\n<p><b>因此这种结构的通胀不会引发美联储紧缩。</b></p>\n<p>根据美联储对政策框架的调整，就业目标的优先顺序要显著高于通胀，当前“弱就业+高通胀”的组合并不会使得美联储释放收紧信号。尤其是在上周欧洲央行利率会议上，提高了经济增长和通胀水平的预测，并承诺加速购债速度后，市场对于美联储收紧的预期再度降低。</p>\n<p>另一个猜想：美债收益率与通胀的传导链被切断了</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前就有过分析，当市场上风险资产、避险资产一起上涨，背后的逻辑大概率就是钱太多，同时通胀走高到美债收益率走高的逻辑链条暂时被切断了。</p>\n<p>我们再复述一遍通胀-收益率传导链：</p>\n<p>通胀走高=&gt;资本收益率走高=&gt;资本需求扩大=&gt;资金供求平衡改变=&gt;资金供给预期变紧=&gt;资金成本上行=&gt;无风险利率抬升（美债收益率走高）。</p>\n<p>由于美联储货币政策收紧对于通胀已处于“狼来了”的麻木状态，使得市场对资金供给变紧的预期难以实现（甚至还在变松），切断了通胀走高到收益率走高的传导链，导致美国通胀和美债收益率出现背离。</p>\n<p><b>未来怎么看？</b></p>\n<p>正如上文所述，就业是对美联储衡量其政策的一个重要指标。未来美国劳动力市场能否如期改善将很大程度上决定了市场对于美国经济、以及美联储政策的判断。</p>\n<p>其次，当前美国流动性可能确实比较泛滥，一些机构很可能同时增加了对长短端美债的需求，进而压低了利率水平。因此美国财政部的发债节奏也很可能对债券市场造成扰动。</p>\n<p>最后，虽然市场一致认为美联储不会因为现状而改变其立场，但凡事无绝对，美联储官员也有在暗示要开始讨论缩减购债计划，因此下周的议息会议就是一个很重要的观察窗口。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风向有变！市场为何突然不怕通胀和央行紧缩了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-13 14:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：张泽一\n美国通胀数据创下2008年以来的新高，但市场画风却不一样了，投资者疯狂涌入美国国债市场，美股也在持续上涨...到底是怎么了？通胀爆表也不担心央行紧缩了？\n发生了什么？\n华尔街见闻此前报道，美国五月CPI同比大涨5%，预期值仅为4.7%，增速创下2008年8月以来最高值，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长3.8%，增速创下1992年以来的新高。\n\n但市场反映却并没有像3月一样恐慌：十年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117786168","content_text":"作者：张泽一\n美国通胀数据创下2008年以来的新高，但市场画风却不一样了，投资者疯狂涌入美国国债市场，美股也在持续上涨...到底是怎么了？通胀爆表也不担心央行紧缩了？\n发生了什么？\n华尔街见闻此前报道，美国五月CPI同比大涨5%，预期值仅为4.7%，增速创下2008年8月以来最高值，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长3.8%，增速创下1992年以来的新高。\n\n但市场反映却并没有像3月一样恐慌：十年期美债收益率本周下跌10个BP至1.45%，刷新自去年6月以来的最大周度跌幅，而且是连跌四周。美债收益率曲线也越来越平坦，两年期和十年期之间国债收益率价差创今年2月来新低。\n\n另外，在美股市场上，科技股又卷土重来。纳指5个交易日内上涨1.8%，且为连续第4周上涨，今年来收益超过9%，标普500上涨至5月初以来的首个历史高点，FAANG本周上涨0.6%，而价值股表现暗淡，银行股本周下跌2.4%。\n更值得关注的是，十年期通胀预期录得2020年4月以来最大周跌幅，下跌了8个BP至2.34%，该指标经常被视为预期通胀率的衡量指标，取的是国债和通胀保值债券（TIPS）的收益率之差。\n\n通胀担忧怎么突然就消退了？\n通胀指标确实爆表了，但市场表现以及通胀预期的下降实实在在的反映了当前的市场心理：美联储或许说的没错，通胀只是暂时的，紧缩暂时也没必要。\n或许换句话来说更好理解：不是市场不担心通胀了，而是不担心这种结构的通胀会引发美联储提前紧缩了。\n首先美国通胀或将持续维持高位。\n如果将本次通胀大涨分拆来看的话，可以看到交运和住房分项对CPI的环比贡献持续上升。其中交运中又以汽车价格上行贡献了主要涨幅，这体现了缺芯的影响仍在持续；另一方面住房分项又以租金为代表，体现了劳动力回流大城市工作的影响。这些现象短期内恐难以消退。\n\n美国经济复苏结构也由前期的商品消费转移至服务消费，这可以从美国酒店业、餐饮服务业的复苏观察到：例如5月ISM服务业指数录得64，创下历史新高；小非农ADP中就业人数增加97.8万，而服务业提供了85万个工作岗位。\n但这也加剧了美国劳动力供需错配的问题，华尔街见闻此前报道，美国企业及政府单位发布的空缺岗位创下历史新高，达到930万个，但实际到岗的人数远远不足。这似乎证明了美国政府此前大规模发钱导致失业员工“不愿回去工作”，从而导致劳动力供需错配，更加剧了“工资通胀”压力。\n因此这种结构的通胀不会引发美联储紧缩。\n根据美联储对政策框架的调整，就业目标的优先顺序要显著高于通胀，当前“弱就业+高通胀”的组合并不会使得美联储释放收紧信号。尤其是在上周欧洲央行利率会议上，提高了经济增长和通胀水平的预测，并承诺加速购债速度后，市场对于美联储收紧的预期再度降低。\n另一个猜想：美债收益率与通胀的传导链被切断了\n华尔街见闻此前就有过分析，当市场上风险资产、避险资产一起上涨，背后的逻辑大概率就是钱太多，同时通胀走高到美债收益率走高的逻辑链条暂时被切断了。\n我们再复述一遍通胀-收益率传导链：\n通胀走高=>资本收益率走高=>资本需求扩大=>资金供求平衡改变=>资金供给预期变紧=>资金成本上行=>无风险利率抬升（美债收益率走高）。\n由于美联储货币政策收紧对于通胀已处于“狼来了”的麻木状态，使得市场对资金供给变紧的预期难以实现（甚至还在变松），切断了通胀走高到收益率走高的传导链，导致美国通胀和美债收益率出现背离。\n未来怎么看？\n正如上文所述，就业是对美联储衡量其政策的一个重要指标。未来美国劳动力市场能否如期改善将很大程度上决定了市场对于美国经济、以及美联储政策的判断。\n其次，当前美国流动性可能确实比较泛滥，一些机构很可能同时增加了对长短端美债的需求，进而压低了利率水平。因此美国财政部的发债节奏也很可能对债券市场造成扰动。\n最后，虽然市场一致认为美联储不会因为现状而改变其立场，但凡事无绝对，美联储官员也有在暗示要开始讨论缩减购债计划，因此下周的议息会议就是一个很重要的观察窗口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186470078,"gmtCreate":1623538085194,"gmtModify":1631892689749,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186470078","repostId":"1172667270","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186622444,"gmtCreate":1623494525088,"gmtModify":1631892689760,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186622444","repostId":"1176185879","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176185879","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623482219,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176185879?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-12 15:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎证券技术副总裁柳锴：技术需始终领先业务半个身位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176185879","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"【正在直播】老虎7周年Open Day\n科技如何让投资更美好？6月12日的老虎证券七周年OPEN DAY上，老虎证券技术副总裁柳锴分享了老虎证券作为领先互联网券商的技术发展，并提出券商要实现差异化竞争","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216226253307800%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>【正在直播】老虎7周年Open Day</b></a></p>\n<p>科技如何让投资更美好？6月12日的老虎证券七周年OPEN DAY上，老虎证券技术副总裁柳锴分享了老虎证券作为领先互联网券商的技术发展，并提出券商要实现差异化竞争，“技术需始终领先业务半个身位”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db803d13a1f9a9c334aa331ae8a5a1c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>&nbsp;“从去年美股史诗级熔断、原油破天荒跌破负数到今年散户抱团大战华尔街，剧烈震动的行情对于整个券商行业来说都是挑战，尤其是系统承载能力、稳定性等方面。”柳锴说。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;“是否能应对高并发场景、每个行情请求的响应时长有多少、交易订单的处理速度有多快等因素都与交易体验直接相关。交易用的是真金白银，所以券商技术系统极其重要。”柳锴表示，老虎证券一直以来死磕技术，不断优化自研底层，一方面构建了一整套稳定性保障方案，对极端行情场景提前制定预案，以保障系统的高可用性。另一方面，公司加速推进包括自清算在内的基础建设研发和迭代，提升系统扩展性和清结算能力，今年以来交易容量提升5倍以上。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;在柳锴看来，随着券商竞争进入下半局，是否自主掌握底层技术将是接下来的关键赛点。其在现场透露，老虎证券即将上线期权组合交易功能，进一步满足高阶期权玩家多样化交易需求。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;“互联网券商是金融和技术的深度融合。和所有行业一样，互联网券商技术研发的前提是对用户痛点和需求有深刻的理解。”柳锴表示，在深挖用户需求的基础上，产研团队还需精准把握未来投资趋势和技术发展模式，“老虎证券未来要做到系统更稳、交易速度更快、支持交易类型更多、用户体验更好以及用户交易成本更低。”</p>\n<p>&nbsp;谈及如何从技术侧加速国际化布局，柳锴透露老虎证券目前正在大力推进中台建设。通过建立集中统一的数据中台、技术中台和增长中台，不同市场可将技术和商业化经验快速共享、复制及验证，提高产研和本地化运营效率。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;“老虎证券正在国际化、全球化。随着版图的扩大，竞争自然也会多一些，但我们相信老虎证券有很强的技术能力和用户场景把控能力，未来我们也会不遗余力地持续夯实研发基础，继续走在行业前端。”柳锴说。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎证券技术副总裁柳锴：技术需始终领先业务半个身位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-12 15:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNLive&amp;rndata=%7B%22liveId%22:%2216226253307800%22%7D&amp;feature=Push\" target=\"_blank\"><b>【正在直播】老虎7周年Open Day</b></a></p>\n<p>科技如何让投资更美好？6月12日的老虎证券七周年OPEN DAY上，老虎证券技术副总裁柳锴分享了老虎证券作为领先互联网券商的技术发展，并提出券商要实现差异化竞争，“技术需始终领先业务半个身位”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db803d13a1f9a9c334aa331ae8a5a1c9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1527\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>&nbsp;“从去年美股史诗级熔断、原油破天荒跌破负数到今年散户抱团大战华尔街，剧烈震动的行情对于整个券商行业来说都是挑战，尤其是系统承载能力、稳定性等方面。”柳锴说。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;“是否能应对高并发场景、每个行情请求的响应时长有多少、交易订单的处理速度有多快等因素都与交易体验直接相关。交易用的是真金白银，所以券商技术系统极其重要。”柳锴表示，老虎证券一直以来死磕技术，不断优化自研底层，一方面构建了一整套稳定性保障方案，对极端行情场景提前制定预案，以保障系统的高可用性。另一方面，公司加速推进包括自清算在内的基础建设研发和迭代，提升系统扩展性和清结算能力，今年以来交易容量提升5倍以上。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;在柳锴看来，随着券商竞争进入下半局，是否自主掌握底层技术将是接下来的关键赛点。其在现场透露，老虎证券即将上线期权组合交易功能，进一步满足高阶期权玩家多样化交易需求。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;“互联网券商是金融和技术的深度融合。和所有行业一样，互联网券商技术研发的前提是对用户痛点和需求有深刻的理解。”柳锴表示，在深挖用户需求的基础上，产研团队还需精准把握未来投资趋势和技术发展模式，“老虎证券未来要做到系统更稳、交易速度更快、支持交易类型更多、用户体验更好以及用户交易成本更低。”</p>\n<p>&nbsp;谈及如何从技术侧加速国际化布局，柳锴透露老虎证券目前正在大力推进中台建设。通过建立集中统一的数据中台、技术中台和增长中台，不同市场可将技术和商业化经验快速共享、复制及验证，提高产研和本地化运营效率。</p>\n<p>&nbsp;“老虎证券正在国际化、全球化。随着版图的扩大，竞争自然也会多一些，但我们相信老虎证券有很强的技术能力和用户场景把控能力，未来我们也会不遗余力地持续夯实研发基础，继续走在行业前端。”柳锴说。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44d6afe93fb11279b2ba9ac83bf62c23","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176185879","content_text":"【正在直播】老虎7周年Open Day\n科技如何让投资更美好？6月12日的老虎证券七周年OPEN DAY上，老虎证券技术副总裁柳锴分享了老虎证券作为领先互联网券商的技术发展，并提出券商要实现差异化竞争，“技术需始终领先业务半个身位”。\n\n “从去年美股史诗级熔断、原油破天荒跌破负数到今年散户抱团大战华尔街，剧烈震动的行情对于整个券商行业来说都是挑战，尤其是系统承载能力、稳定性等方面。”柳锴说。\n “是否能应对高并发场景、每个行情请求的响应时长有多少、交易订单的处理速度有多快等因素都与交易体验直接相关。交易用的是真金白银，所以券商技术系统极其重要。”柳锴表示，老虎证券一直以来死磕技术，不断优化自研底层，一方面构建了一整套稳定性保障方案，对极端行情场景提前制定预案，以保障系统的高可用性。另一方面，公司加速推进包括自清算在内的基础建设研发和迭代，提升系统扩展性和清结算能力，今年以来交易容量提升5倍以上。\n 在柳锴看来，随着券商竞争进入下半局，是否自主掌握底层技术将是接下来的关键赛点。其在现场透露，老虎证券即将上线期权组合交易功能，进一步满足高阶期权玩家多样化交易需求。\n “互联网券商是金融和技术的深度融合。和所有行业一样，互联网券商技术研发的前提是对用户痛点和需求有深刻的理解。”柳锴表示，在深挖用户需求的基础上，产研团队还需精准把握未来投资趋势和技术发展模式，“老虎证券未来要做到系统更稳、交易速度更快、支持交易类型更多、用户体验更好以及用户交易成本更低。”\n 谈及如何从技术侧加速国际化布局，柳锴透露老虎证券目前正在大力推进中台建设。通过建立集中统一的数据中台、技术中台和增长中台，不同市场可将技术和商业化经验快速共享、复制及验证，提高产研和本地化运营效率。\n “老虎证券正在国际化、全球化。随着版图的扩大，竞争自然也会多一些，但我们相信老虎证券有很强的技术能力和用户场景把控能力，未来我们也会不遗余力地持续夯实研发基础，继续走在行业前端。”柳锴说。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":189264511,"gmtCreate":1623277396633,"gmtModify":1631892689773,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189264511","repostId":"1153822469","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153822469","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623251595,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153822469?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-09 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"【异动】零售商板块走高，梅西百货涨超7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153822469","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月9日，美股零售商板块盘中走高，梅西百货涨超7%，狄乐百货、诺德斯特龙涨超2%。据成交数据显示，不久前有共38万股多笔大单买入梅西百货。\n6月7日梅西百货公布财报，公告显示公司2022财年第一财季归","content":"<p>6月9日，美股零售商板块盘中走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">狄乐百货</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">诺德斯特龙</a>涨超2%。据成交数据显示，不久前有共38万股多笔大单买入梅西百货。</p>\n<p>6月7日梅西百货公布财报，公告显示公司2022财年第一财季归属于母公司普通股股东净利润为1.03亿美元，同比增长102.88%；营业收入为48.65亿美元，同比上涨54.54%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90867583067b4e9e8da34b59d8cfeefd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>【异动】零售商板块走高，梅西百货涨超7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】零售商板块走高，梅西百货涨超7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-09 23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月9日，美股零售商板块盘中走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/M\">梅西百货</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">狄乐百货</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">诺德斯特龙</a>涨超2%。据成交数据显示，不久前有共38万股多笔大单买入梅西百货。</p>\n<p>6月7日梅西百货公布财报，公告显示公司2022财年第一财季归属于母公司普通股股东净利润为1.03亿美元，同比增长102.88%；营业收入为48.65亿美元，同比上涨54.54%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90867583067b4e9e8da34b59d8cfeefd\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dff4f51380338d4e15eb6131b46e8f8","relate_stocks":{"M":"梅西百货"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153822469","content_text":"6月9日，美股零售商板块盘中走高，梅西百货涨超7%，狄乐百货、诺德斯特龙涨超2%。据成交数据显示，不久前有共38万股多笔大单买入梅西百货。\n6月7日梅西百货公布财报，公告显示公司2022财年第一财季归属于母公司普通股股东净利润为1.03亿美元，同比增长102.88%；营业收入为48.65亿美元，同比上涨54.54%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"M":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":153848156,"gmtCreate":1625019001775,"gmtModify":1631891512625,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":250,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153848156","repostId":"1133732318","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":843877568,"gmtCreate":1635820738883,"gmtModify":1635820738986,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":81,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843877568","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604930954,"gmtCreate":1639300508594,"gmtModify":1639300508818,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":35,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604930954","repostId":"2190674263","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2190674263","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639291545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2190674263?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-12 14:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Lucid等六只股将加入纳指100，有望跑赢大盘","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190674263","media":"智通财经","summary":"12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、飞塔信息、Palo Alto Networks、Zscaler和Datadog将被纳入纳斯达克1","content":"<p>12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FTNT\">飞塔信息</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PANW\">Palo Alto Networks</a>、Zscaler和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDOG\">Datadog</a>将被纳入纳斯达克100指数。</p>\n<p>这六家公司将取代CDW Crop、福克斯公司、塞纳、Check Point软件、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCOM\">携程网</a>和因塞特。</p>\n<p>总体而言，被纳入纳斯达克100指数可以改善企业的流动性，并通过指数基金提供更广泛的投资者兴趣基础。据分析，从宣布前到纳入指数后的5天里，股票平均跑赢大盘1%。从历史上看，在接下来的一年里，它们的表现也优于标普500指数。</p>\n<p>从估值上看，即将加入纳斯达克100指数的6只新成分股价格不菲，只有Palo三年内的市盈率低于50。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f146561ec1f93915ab9e5fe0142fe5\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"522\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>从资产负债表来看，Lucid债务和股东权益的比例最低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eff9462a980435733166700c43b18dee\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Lucid等六只股将加入纳指100，有望跑赢大盘</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLucid等六只股将加入纳指100，有望跑赢大盘\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-12 14:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/620279.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、飞塔信息、Palo Alto Networks、Zscaler和Datadog将被纳入纳斯达克100指数。\n这六家公司将取代CDW Crop、福克斯公司、塞纳、Check Point软件、携程网和因塞特。\n总体而言，被纳入纳斯达克100指数可以改善企业的流动性，并通过指数基金提供更广泛的投资者...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/620279.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de0bbe341ac5d74e1a8d74c9ca5de715","relate_stocks":{"03086":"华夏纳指","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4561":"索罗斯持仓","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/620279.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190674263","content_text":"12月18日，纳斯达克100指数将焕然一新，作为年度调整的一部分，Airbnb、Lucid Group、飞塔信息、Palo Alto Networks、Zscaler和Datadog将被纳入纳斯达克100指数。\n这六家公司将取代CDW Crop、福克斯公司、塞纳、Check Point软件、携程网和因塞特。\n总体而言，被纳入纳斯达克100指数可以改善企业的流动性，并通过指数基金提供更广泛的投资者兴趣基础。据分析，从宣布前到纳入指数后的5天里，股票平均跑赢大盘1%。从历史上看，在接下来的一年里，它们的表现也优于标普500指数。\n从估值上看，即将加入纳斯达克100指数的6只新成分股价格不菲，只有Palo三年内的市盈率低于50。\n\n从资产负债表来看，Lucid债务和股东权益的比例最低。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"03086":0.9,"QLD":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":168159356,"gmtCreate":1623967743375,"gmtModify":1631892689703,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😂","listText":"😂","text":"😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168159356","repostId":"1119601826","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182768448,"gmtCreate":1623621374384,"gmtModify":1631892689736,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182768448","repostId":"1117786168","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117786168","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1623566813,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117786168?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-13 14:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"风向有变！市场为何突然不怕通胀和央行紧缩了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117786168","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场相信央行不会在这种特殊的通胀结构下提前紧缩。","content":"<p>作者：张泽一</p>\n<p>美国通胀数据创下2008年以来的新高，但市场画风却不一样了，投资者疯狂涌入美国国债市场，美股也在持续上涨...到底是怎么了？通胀爆表也不担心央行紧缩了？</p>\n<p><b>发生了什么？</b></p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前报道，美国五月CPI同比大涨5%，预期值仅为4.7%，增速创下2008年8月以来最高值，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长3.8%，增速创下1992年以来的新高。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b94b4808fd4216c379450dd16bab979\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但市场反映却并没有像3月一样恐慌：十年期美债收益率本周下跌10个BP至1.45%，刷新自去年6月以来的最大周度跌幅，而且是连跌四周。美债收益率曲线也越来越平坦，两年期和十年期之间国债收益率价差创今年2月来新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40460695fe7a71d74ffc3330453d974b\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"339\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>另外，在美股市场上，科技股又卷土重来。纳指5个交易日内上涨1.8%，且为连续第4周上涨，今年来收益超过9%，标普500上涨至5月初以来的首个历史高点，FAANG本周上涨0.6%，而价值股表现暗淡，银行股本周下跌2.4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8a75017ff850dc25c978779cb8289a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">更值得关注的是，十年期通胀预期录得2020年4月以来最大周跌幅，下跌了8个BP至2.34%，该指标经常被视为预期通胀率的衡量指标，取的是国债和通胀保值债券（TIPS）的收益率之差。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4beaee579cb0afa605b60b3d8aa7fe1\" tg-width=\"625\" tg-height=\"383\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>通胀担忧怎么突然就消退了？</b></p>\n<p>通胀指标确实爆表了，但市场表现以及通胀预期的下降实实在在的反映了当前的市场心理：美联储或许说的没错，通胀只是暂时的，紧缩暂时也没必要。</p>\n<p>或许换句话来说更好理解：不是市场不担心通胀了，而是不担心这种结构的通胀会引发美联储提前紧缩了。</p>\n<p><b>首先美国通胀或将持续维持高位。</b></p>\n<p>如果将本次通胀大涨分拆来看的话，可以看到交运和住房分项对CPI的环比贡献持续上升。其中交运中又以汽车价格上行贡献了主要涨幅，这体现了缺芯的影响仍在持续；另一方面住房分项又以租金为代表，体现了劳动力回流大城市工作的影响。这些现象短期内恐难以消退。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/133dd860cd82af3ef62b03a0fd429c7e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>美国经济复苏结构也由前期的商品消费转移至服务消费，这可以从美国酒店业、餐饮服务业的复苏观察到：例如5月ISM服务业指数录得64，创下历史新高；小非农ADP中就业人数增加97.8万，而服务业提供了85万个工作岗位。</p>\n<p>但这也加剧了美国劳动力供需错配的问题，华尔街见闻此前报道，美国企业及政府单位发布的空缺岗位创下历史新高，达到930万个，但实际到岗的人数远远不足。这似乎证明了美国政府此前大规模发钱导致失业员工“不愿回去工作”，从而导致劳动力供需错配，更加剧了“工资通胀”压力。</p>\n<p><b>因此这种结构的通胀不会引发美联储紧缩。</b></p>\n<p>根据美联储对政策框架的调整，就业目标的优先顺序要显著高于通胀，当前“弱就业+高通胀”的组合并不会使得美联储释放收紧信号。尤其是在上周欧洲央行利率会议上，提高了经济增长和通胀水平的预测，并承诺加速购债速度后，市场对于美联储收紧的预期再度降低。</p>\n<p>另一个猜想：美债收益率与通胀的传导链被切断了</p>\n<p>华尔街见闻此前就有过分析，当市场上风险资产、避险资产一起上涨，背后的逻辑大概率就是钱太多，同时通胀走高到美债收益率走高的逻辑链条暂时被切断了。</p>\n<p>我们再复述一遍通胀-收益率传导链：</p>\n<p>通胀走高=&gt;资本收益率走高=&gt;资本需求扩大=&gt;资金供求平衡改变=&gt;资金供给预期变紧=&gt;资金成本上行=&gt;无风险利率抬升（美债收益率走高）。</p>\n<p>由于美联储货币政策收紧对于通胀已处于“狼来了”的麻木状态，使得市场对资金供给变紧的预期难以实现（甚至还在变松），切断了通胀走高到收益率走高的传导链，导致美国通胀和美债收益率出现背离。</p>\n<p><b>未来怎么看？</b></p>\n<p>正如上文所述，就业是对美联储衡量其政策的一个重要指标。未来美国劳动力市场能否如期改善将很大程度上决定了市场对于美国经济、以及美联储政策的判断。</p>\n<p>其次，当前美国流动性可能确实比较泛滥，一些机构很可能同时增加了对长短端美债的需求，进而压低了利率水平。因此美国财政部的发债节奏也很可能对债券市场造成扰动。</p>\n<p>最后，虽然市场一致认为美联储不会因为现状而改变其立场，但凡事无绝对，美联储官员也有在暗示要开始讨论缩减购债计划，因此下周的议息会议就是一个很重要的观察窗口。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>风向有变！市场为何突然不怕通胀和央行紧缩了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风向有变！市场为何突然不怕通胀和央行紧缩了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2021-06-13 14:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：张泽一\n美国通胀数据创下2008年以来的新高，但市场画风却不一样了，投资者疯狂涌入美国国债市场，美股也在持续上涨...到底是怎么了？通胀爆表也不担心央行紧缩了？\n发生了什么？\n华尔街见闻此前报道，美国五月CPI同比大涨5%，预期值仅为4.7%，增速创下2008年8月以来最高值，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长3.8%，增速创下1992年以来的新高。\n\n但市场反映却并没有像3月一样恐慌：十年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"None\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117786168","content_text":"作者：张泽一\n美国通胀数据创下2008年以来的新高，但市场画风却不一样了，投资者疯狂涌入美国国债市场，美股也在持续上涨...到底是怎么了？通胀爆表也不担心央行紧缩了？\n发生了什么？\n华尔街见闻此前报道，美国五月CPI同比大涨5%，预期值仅为4.7%，增速创下2008年8月以来最高值，扣除食品和能源的核心CPI同比增长3.8%，增速创下1992年以来的新高。\n\n但市场反映却并没有像3月一样恐慌：十年期美债收益率本周下跌10个BP至1.45%，刷新自去年6月以来的最大周度跌幅，而且是连跌四周。美债收益率曲线也越来越平坦，两年期和十年期之间国债收益率价差创今年2月来新低。\n\n另外，在美股市场上，科技股又卷土重来。纳指5个交易日内上涨1.8%，且为连续第4周上涨，今年来收益超过9%，标普500上涨至5月初以来的首个历史高点，FAANG本周上涨0.6%，而价值股表现暗淡，银行股本周下跌2.4%。\n更值得关注的是，十年期通胀预期录得2020年4月以来最大周跌幅，下跌了8个BP至2.34%，该指标经常被视为预期通胀率的衡量指标，取的是国债和通胀保值债券（TIPS）的收益率之差。\n\n通胀担忧怎么突然就消退了？\n通胀指标确实爆表了，但市场表现以及通胀预期的下降实实在在的反映了当前的市场心理：美联储或许说的没错，通胀只是暂时的，紧缩暂时也没必要。\n或许换句话来说更好理解：不是市场不担心通胀了，而是不担心这种结构的通胀会引发美联储提前紧缩了。\n首先美国通胀或将持续维持高位。\n如果将本次通胀大涨分拆来看的话，可以看到交运和住房分项对CPI的环比贡献持续上升。其中交运中又以汽车价格上行贡献了主要涨幅，这体现了缺芯的影响仍在持续；另一方面住房分项又以租金为代表，体现了劳动力回流大城市工作的影响。这些现象短期内恐难以消退。\n\n美国经济复苏结构也由前期的商品消费转移至服务消费，这可以从美国酒店业、餐饮服务业的复苏观察到：例如5月ISM服务业指数录得64，创下历史新高；小非农ADP中就业人数增加97.8万，而服务业提供了85万个工作岗位。\n但这也加剧了美国劳动力供需错配的问题，华尔街见闻此前报道，美国企业及政府单位发布的空缺岗位创下历史新高，达到930万个，但实际到岗的人数远远不足。这似乎证明了美国政府此前大规模发钱导致失业员工“不愿回去工作”，从而导致劳动力供需错配，更加剧了“工资通胀”压力。\n因此这种结构的通胀不会引发美联储紧缩。\n根据美联储对政策框架的调整，就业目标的优先顺序要显著高于通胀，当前“弱就业+高通胀”的组合并不会使得美联储释放收紧信号。尤其是在上周欧洲央行利率会议上，提高了经济增长和通胀水平的预测，并承诺加速购债速度后，市场对于美联储收紧的预期再度降低。\n另一个猜想：美债收益率与通胀的传导链被切断了\n华尔街见闻此前就有过分析，当市场上风险资产、避险资产一起上涨，背后的逻辑大概率就是钱太多，同时通胀走高到美债收益率走高的逻辑链条暂时被切断了。\n我们再复述一遍通胀-收益率传导链：\n通胀走高=>资本收益率走高=>资本需求扩大=>资金供求平衡改变=>资金供给预期变紧=>资金成本上行=>无风险利率抬升（美债收益率走高）。\n由于美联储货币政策收紧对于通胀已处于“狼来了”的麻木状态，使得市场对资金供给变紧的预期难以实现（甚至还在变松），切断了通胀走高到收益率走高的传导链，导致美国通胀和美债收益率出现背离。\n未来怎么看？\n正如上文所述，就业是对美联储衡量其政策的一个重要指标。未来美国劳动力市场能否如期改善将很大程度上决定了市场对于美国经济、以及美联储政策的判断。\n其次，当前美国流动性可能确实比较泛滥，一些机构很可能同时增加了对长短端美债的需求，进而压低了利率水平。因此美国财政部的发债节奏也很可能对债券市场造成扰动。\n最后，虽然市场一致认为美联储不会因为现状而改变其立场，但凡事无绝对，美联储官员也有在暗示要开始讨论缩减购债计划，因此下周的议息会议就是一个很重要的观察窗口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":379091727,"gmtCreate":1618634666969,"gmtModify":1634291624032,"author":{"id":"3571363097076123","authorId":"3571363097076123","name":"Terrens","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de224a4ccb02f0dbcea7ad782bfd855","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571363097076123","authorIdStr":"3571363097076123"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;gud","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;gud","text":"[财迷] 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