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2021-12-16

Okay

市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍

2021-06-23

Ok

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2021-06-22

Nicee

The Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week

2021-06-21

Hmmm

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2021-06-21

Alritr

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2021-06-21

???

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2021-06-21

Okayy

Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In "Heat-Seeking Missiles": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis

2021-06-21

Ah noo

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2021-06-21

Mmm

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2021-06-21

//@justplainame: Hmmm

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2021-06-21

//@justplainame: 😅😅😅

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2021-06-21

😅😅😅

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2021-06-21

Oh oh...

Apple: Winter Is Coming

2021-06-21

Hmmm

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2021-06-21

Hmmm

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2021-06-21

Ok

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2021-06-21

Hmmm

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2021-06-21

Okahy

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2021-06-21

Hmmmmm

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2021-06-21

Ahhhh

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16:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185807512","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要闻\n报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%\n中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了1","content":"<p><b>要闻</b></p>\n<p><b>报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%</b></p>\n<p>中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。</p>\n<p><b>发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%</b></p>\n<p>国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f710bc60948a900fdca7beac9fd1850\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">兖州煤业</a>飙涨超24%领衔走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">中煤能源</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002821\">凯莱英</a>皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>跌3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌1.4%。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409c1305a6844ea952eeaa7cb2dc3628\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601898\">中煤能源</a>等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">美锦能源</a>等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300612\">宣亚国际</a>20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300045\">华力创通</a>亦20%涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300578\">会畅通讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">万兴科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600640\">新国脉</a>等10股涨停或涨超10%。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07210fef01256b9990d896d8a79bd6b0\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>元宇宙概念股</span></p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07a1c34f3c058243769c1190230592b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36516b20672777eb4226ec3575e041a\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。</p>\n<p>因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9bf6740112cba724f7d996b177000\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5bc6d6af3630365c39619dce47a99a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e811cafc24779962d2c4b160f6508357\" 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-16 16:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>要闻</b></p>\n<p><b>报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%</b></p>\n<p>中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。</p>\n<p><b>发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%</b></p>\n<p>国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f710bc60948a900fdca7beac9fd1850\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">兖州煤业</a>飙涨超24%领衔走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">中煤能源</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002821\">凯莱英</a>皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>跌3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌1.4%。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409c1305a6844ea952eeaa7cb2dc3628\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601898\">中煤能源</a>等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">美锦能源</a>等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300612\">宣亚国际</a>20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300045\">华力创通</a>亦20%涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300578\">会畅通讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">万兴科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600640\">新国脉</a>等10股涨停或涨超10%。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07210fef01256b9990d896d8a79bd6b0\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>元宇宙概念股</span></p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07a1c34f3c058243769c1190230592b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36516b20672777eb4226ec3575e041a\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。</p>\n<p>因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9bf6740112cba724f7d996b177000\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5bc6d6af3630365c39619dce47a99a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e811cafc24779962d2c4b160f6508357\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","00981":"中芯国际","HSCEI":"国企指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185807512","content_text":"要闻\n报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%\n中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。\n发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%\n国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。\n港股\n港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。\n\n盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，兖州煤业飙涨超24%领衔走高，中煤能源涨超12%，中国神华等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，药明生物、凯莱英皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，华虹半导体、中芯国际皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，快手-W涨超3%，百度集团-SW涨近2%，京东集团-SW跌3%，美团-W跌1.4%。\nA股\n两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。\n\n周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，中煤能源等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，美锦能源等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，山西汾酒跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头宣亚国际20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；华力创通亦20%涨停，会畅通讯、万兴科技、新国脉等10股涨停或涨超10%。\n元宇宙概念股\n美股\n美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。\n\n欧股\n欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，英国富时100指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。\n\n原油\n原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。\n因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。\n\n黄金\n黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。\n尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"00981":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121239166,"gmtCreate":1624464631055,"gmtModify":1634005698698,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121239166","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129099165,"gmtCreate":1624341500857,"gmtModify":1634007505096,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nicee","listText":"Nicee","text":"Nicee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129099165","repostId":"1175304129","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175304129","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624329424,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175304129?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175304129","media":"fool","summary":"The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs a","content":"<p>The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are excited about the prospects for things returning to how they were before the huge disruptions we've seen across the globe since early 2020. That excitement played out in major market benchmarks Monday morning, as the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)climbed more than 500 points to 33,800, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)gained 47 points to 4,214, and the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)climbed 67 points to 14,098.</p>\n<p>Earnings season is always a good way to tell how individual companies are faring, but some businesses have more importance than others. Later this week, delivery specialist&nbsp;<b>FedEx</b>(NYSE:FDX)and athletic apparel giant&nbsp;<b>Nike</b>(NYSE:NKE)will give their latest readings on their corporate results. Both will have major implications not just for their own shareholders but for those following the broader economy as well.</p>\n<p>Delivering for investors?</p>\n<p>FedEx is set to report its latest results on Thursday, June 24. Investors are expecting big things from the company, but a lot more will depend on what FedEx says about what the future will bring.</p>\n<p>Given the hit that FedEx took this time last year, it should come as little surprise that those following the delivery giant are looking for a major rebound. Consensus estimates among those tracking FedEx see earnings nearly doubling from year-ago levels, with revenue slated to rise at a healthy 24% pace.</p>\n<p>Indeed, in some ways,FedEx has too much of a good thing. Earlier this month, the company said it would cut service to some of its logistics customers who seek out less-than-truckload shipping services. The reason: Exceptionally strong demand was causing bottlenecks at key terminal locations that in turn were threatening to delay shipments. The issues aren't unique to FedEx, instead reflecting capacity constraints throughout the industry that are creating potential disruptions for customers seeking to get goods where they need to go.</p>\n<p>Investors will want to pay particularly close attention to any guidance that FedEx gives for its fiscal 2022 year. After having seen so much e-commerce activity drive pandemic-related gains, a return to more typical business conditions could create a temporary pause in FedEx's growth. How much that appears in projections could in turn say a lot about whether the stock can return to its former upward trajectory.</p>\n<p>Doing it</p>\n<p>Nike is also slated to release its financial results on Thursday morning. Investors hope to see a significant reversal from last year's painful experience.</p>\n<p>Nike appears to be ready to get back on trackwith its quarterly results. Revenue is expected to soar more than 75% from year-ago levels, which reflected store closures and other disruptions related to the pandemic. Nike's earnings will likely reverse year-ago losses, although bottom-line performance is still in the process of recovering from more difficult conditions.</p>\n<p>The big question is how a couple of key aspects of Nike's business will balance out. On one hand, demand is soaring both in Nike's home North American market and overseas in key places like China. That could help support revenue and profit gains into the coming fiscal year. At the same time, though, prices for materials have been on the rise, and that in turn could present challenges to profit margins.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Nike is looking to put its marketing machine to the test, with plenty of new product launches designed to stoke demand and give consumers a place to spend their savings. The success of those launches could well define the course of Nike's fiscal 2022, and that in turn could determine whether the stock can climb further after sizable gains over the past year or so.</p>\n<p>Be ready</p>\n<p>With so much uncertainty in the markets, key earnings reports can make or break the future direction for stocks. Market participants will watch releases from FedEx and Nike closely to find hints to where those two stocks -- and the entire market -- will move from here.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 10:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","FDX":"联邦快递"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175304129","content_text":"The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are excited about the prospects for things returning to how they were before the huge disruptions we've seen across the globe since early 2020. That excitement played out in major market benchmarks Monday morning, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI)climbed more than 500 points to 33,800, the S&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)gained 47 points to 4,214, and the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)climbed 67 points to 14,098.\nEarnings season is always a good way to tell how individual companies are faring, but some businesses have more importance than others. Later this week, delivery specialist FedEx(NYSE:FDX)and athletic apparel giant Nike(NYSE:NKE)will give their latest readings on their corporate results. Both will have major implications not just for their own shareholders but for those following the broader economy as well.\nDelivering for investors?\nFedEx is set to report its latest results on Thursday, June 24. Investors are expecting big things from the company, but a lot more will depend on what FedEx says about what the future will bring.\nGiven the hit that FedEx took this time last year, it should come as little surprise that those following the delivery giant are looking for a major rebound. Consensus estimates among those tracking FedEx see earnings nearly doubling from year-ago levels, with revenue slated to rise at a healthy 24% pace.\nIndeed, in some ways,FedEx has too much of a good thing. Earlier this month, the company said it would cut service to some of its logistics customers who seek out less-than-truckload shipping services. The reason: Exceptionally strong demand was causing bottlenecks at key terminal locations that in turn were threatening to delay shipments. The issues aren't unique to FedEx, instead reflecting capacity constraints throughout the industry that are creating potential disruptions for customers seeking to get goods where they need to go.\nInvestors will want to pay particularly close attention to any guidance that FedEx gives for its fiscal 2022 year. After having seen so much e-commerce activity drive pandemic-related gains, a return to more typical business conditions could create a temporary pause in FedEx's growth. How much that appears in projections could in turn say a lot about whether the stock can return to its former upward trajectory.\nDoing it\nNike is also slated to release its financial results on Thursday morning. Investors hope to see a significant reversal from last year's painful experience.\nNike appears to be ready to get back on trackwith its quarterly results. Revenue is expected to soar more than 75% from year-ago levels, which reflected store closures and other disruptions related to the pandemic. Nike's earnings will likely reverse year-ago losses, although bottom-line performance is still in the process of recovering from more difficult conditions.\nThe big question is how a couple of key aspects of Nike's business will balance out. On one hand, demand is soaring both in Nike's home North American market and overseas in key places like China. That could help support revenue and profit gains into the coming fiscal year. At the same time, though, prices for materials have been on the rise, and that in turn could present challenges to profit margins.\nNevertheless, Nike is looking to put its marketing machine to the test, with plenty of new product launches designed to stoke demand and give consumers a place to spend their savings. The success of those launches could well define the course of Nike's fiscal 2022, and that in turn could determine whether the stock can climb further after sizable gains over the past year or so.\nBe ready\nWith so much uncertainty in the markets, key earnings reports can make or break the future direction for stocks. Market participants will watch releases from FedEx and Nike closely to find hints to where those two stocks -- and the entire market -- will move from here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDX":0.9,"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120805148,"gmtCreate":1624317832584,"gmtModify":1634008026963,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120805148","repostId":"1186997776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120806295,"gmtCreate":1624317785417,"gmtModify":1634008028722,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alritr","listText":"Alritr","text":"Alritr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120806295","repostId":"1182478645","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120806033,"gmtCreate":1624317769522,"gmtModify":1634008029420,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"???","listText":"???","text":"???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120806033","repostId":"1167650307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2578,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120808897,"gmtCreate":1624317750319,"gmtModify":1634008029891,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okayy","listText":"Okayy","text":"Okayy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120808897","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p>\n<p>But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p>\n<blockquote>\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p>\n<p>In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p>\n<p>What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p>\n<p>In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p>\n<p>He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p>\n<p>Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p>\n<p>This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p>\n<p>And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p>\n<p>Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p>\n<p>Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p>\n<p>Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p>\n<p>Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 15:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120801405,"gmtCreate":1624317732807,"gmtModify":1634008030380,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ah noo","listText":"Ah noo","text":"Ah noo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120801405","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120803010,"gmtCreate":1624317697230,"gmtModify":1634008032425,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Mmm","listText":"Mmm","text":"Mmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120803010","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167893897,"gmtCreate":1624256419019,"gmtModify":1634008785222,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: Hmmm","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: Hmmm","text":"//@justplainame: Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167893897","repostId":"2145700634","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167893064,"gmtCreate":1624256387458,"gmtModify":1634008785469,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: 😅😅😅","listText":"//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3570270082896201\">@justplainame</a>: 😅😅😅","text":"//@justplainame: 😅😅😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167893064","repostId":"2145594707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167807875,"gmtCreate":1624256147497,"gmtModify":1634008787717,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😅😅😅","listText":"😅😅😅","text":"😅😅😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167807875","repostId":"2145594707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167807038,"gmtCreate":1624256126224,"gmtModify":1634008787942,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3570270082896201","idStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh oh...","listText":"Oh oh...","text":"Oh oh...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167807038","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price 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15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p>\n<p>But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p>\n<blockquote>\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p>\n<p>In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p>\n<p>What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p>\n<p>In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p>\n<p>He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p>\n<p>Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p>\n<p>This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p>\n<p>And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p>\n<p>Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p>\n<p>Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p>\n<p>Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p>\n<p>Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 15:13 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity 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10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175304129","media":"fool","summary":"The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs a","content":"<p>The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are excited about the prospects for things returning to how they were before the huge disruptions we've seen across the globe since early 2020. That excitement played out in major market benchmarks Monday morning, as the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)climbed more than 500 points to 33,800, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)gained 47 points to 4,214, and the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq Composite</b>(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)climbed 67 points to 14,098.</p>\n<p>Earnings season is always a good way to tell how individual companies are faring, but some businesses have more importance than others. Later this week, delivery specialist&nbsp;<b>FedEx</b>(NYSE:FDX)and athletic apparel giant&nbsp;<b>Nike</b>(NYSE:NKE)will give their latest readings on their corporate results. Both will have major implications not just for their own shareholders but for those following the broader economy as well.</p>\n<p>Delivering for investors?</p>\n<p>FedEx is set to report its latest results on Thursday, June 24. Investors are expecting big things from the company, but a lot more will depend on what FedEx says about what the future will bring.</p>\n<p>Given the hit that FedEx took this time last year, it should come as little surprise that those following the delivery giant are looking for a major rebound. Consensus estimates among those tracking FedEx see earnings nearly doubling from year-ago levels, with revenue slated to rise at a healthy 24% pace.</p>\n<p>Indeed, in some ways,FedEx has too much of a good thing. Earlier this month, the company said it would cut service to some of its logistics customers who seek out less-than-truckload shipping services. The reason: Exceptionally strong demand was causing bottlenecks at key terminal locations that in turn were threatening to delay shipments. The issues aren't unique to FedEx, instead reflecting capacity constraints throughout the industry that are creating potential disruptions for customers seeking to get goods where they need to go.</p>\n<p>Investors will want to pay particularly close attention to any guidance that FedEx gives for its fiscal 2022 year. After having seen so much e-commerce activity drive pandemic-related gains, a return to more typical business conditions could create a temporary pause in FedEx's growth. How much that appears in projections could in turn say a lot about whether the stock can return to its former upward trajectory.</p>\n<p>Doing it</p>\n<p>Nike is also slated to release its financial results on Thursday morning. Investors hope to see a significant reversal from last year's painful experience.</p>\n<p>Nike appears to be ready to get back on trackwith its quarterly results. Revenue is expected to soar more than 75% from year-ago levels, which reflected store closures and other disruptions related to the pandemic. Nike's earnings will likely reverse year-ago losses, although bottom-line performance is still in the process of recovering from more difficult conditions.</p>\n<p>The big question is how a couple of key aspects of Nike's business will balance out. On one hand, demand is soaring both in Nike's home North American market and overseas in key places like China. That could help support revenue and profit gains into the coming fiscal year. At the same time, though, prices for materials have been on the rise, and that in turn could present challenges to profit margins.</p>\n<p>Nevertheless, Nike is looking to put its marketing machine to the test, with plenty of new product launches designed to stoke demand and give consumers a place to spend their savings. The success of those launches could well define the course of Nike's fiscal 2022, and that in turn could determine whether the stock can climb further after sizable gains over the past year or so.</p>\n<p>Be ready</p>\n<p>With so much uncertainty in the markets, key earnings reports can make or break the future direction for stocks. Market participants will watch releases from FedEx and Nike closely to find hints to where those two stocks -- and the entire market -- will move from here.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Bull Market Depends on These 2 Must-Watch Stocks This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 10:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/><strong>fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NKE":"耐克","FDX":"联邦快递"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/21/bull-market-depends-on-these-2-must-watch-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175304129","content_text":"The stock market has done exceptionally well in 2021, continuing to climb to all-time record highs amid strong hopes for a recovering economy. With the world starting to emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, investors are excited about the prospects for things returning to how they were before the huge disruptions we've seen across the globe since early 2020. That excitement played out in major market benchmarks Monday morning, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI)climbed more than 500 points to 33,800, the S&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)gained 47 points to 4,214, and the Nasdaq Composite(NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC)climbed 67 points to 14,098.\nEarnings season is always a good way to tell how individual companies are faring, but some businesses have more importance than others. Later this week, delivery specialist FedEx(NYSE:FDX)and athletic apparel giant Nike(NYSE:NKE)will give their latest readings on their corporate results. Both will have major implications not just for their own shareholders but for those following the broader economy as well.\nDelivering for investors?\nFedEx is set to report its latest results on Thursday, June 24. Investors are expecting big things from the company, but a lot more will depend on what FedEx says about what the future will bring.\nGiven the hit that FedEx took this time last year, it should come as little surprise that those following the delivery giant are looking for a major rebound. Consensus estimates among those tracking FedEx see earnings nearly doubling from year-ago levels, with revenue slated to rise at a healthy 24% pace.\nIndeed, in some ways,FedEx has too much of a good thing. Earlier this month, the company said it would cut service to some of its logistics customers who seek out less-than-truckload shipping services. The reason: Exceptionally strong demand was causing bottlenecks at key terminal locations that in turn were threatening to delay shipments. The issues aren't unique to FedEx, instead reflecting capacity constraints throughout the industry that are creating potential disruptions for customers seeking to get goods where they need to go.\nInvestors will want to pay particularly close attention to any guidance that FedEx gives for its fiscal 2022 year. After having seen so much e-commerce activity drive pandemic-related gains, a return to more typical business conditions could create a temporary pause in FedEx's growth. How much that appears in projections could in turn say a lot about whether the stock can return to its former upward trajectory.\nDoing it\nNike is also slated to release its financial results on Thursday morning. Investors hope to see a significant reversal from last year's painful experience.\nNike appears to be ready to get back on trackwith its quarterly results. Revenue is expected to soar more than 75% from year-ago levels, which reflected store closures and other disruptions related to the pandemic. Nike's earnings will likely reverse year-ago losses, although bottom-line performance is still in the process of recovering from more difficult conditions.\nThe big question is how a couple of key aspects of Nike's business will balance out. On one hand, demand is soaring both in Nike's home North American market and overseas in key places like China. That could help support revenue and profit gains into the coming fiscal year. At the same time, though, prices for materials have been on the rise, and that in turn could present challenges to profit margins.\nNevertheless, Nike is looking to put its marketing machine to the test, with plenty of new product launches designed to stoke demand and give consumers a place to spend their savings. The success of those launches could well define the course of Nike's fiscal 2022, and that in turn could determine whether the stock can climb further after sizable gains over the past year or so.\nBe ready\nWith so much uncertainty in the markets, key earnings reports can make or break the future direction for stocks. Market participants will watch releases from FedEx and Nike closely to find hints to where those two stocks -- and the entire market -- will move from here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FDX":0.9,"NKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120801405,"gmtCreate":1624317732807,"gmtModify":1634008030380,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570270082896201","authorIdStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ah noo","listText":"Ah noo","text":"Ah noo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120801405","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167807038,"gmtCreate":1624256126224,"gmtModify":1634008787942,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570270082896201","authorIdStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh oh...","listText":"Oh oh...","text":"Oh oh...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167807038","repostId":"1175906479","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175906479","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624242000,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175906479?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 10:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: Winter Is Coming","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175906479","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share .In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period.</li>\n <li>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).</li>\n <li>From the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4dc5052119e6bbc5b693cf7385d8738\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview</span></p>\n<p>Apple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&amp;P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.</p>\n<p>Over the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4602be0c6fa92191baf04a7496c4e024\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Let's now take a look at each of these segments:</p>\n<p><b>1. iPhone</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/916b48499e3e3ed2c0c167af3ba62bdb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report</span></p>\n<p>So far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>2. iPad</b></p>\n<p>As it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6faf9ddb8d29d662fcaa46bbda862f48\" tg-width=\"616\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).</p>\n<p><b>3. Mac</b></p>\n<p>From 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2494d89c1d5cd70a4cf0c5fb31fb20a\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.</p>\n<p><b>4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&amp;A)</b></p>\n<p>The Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&amp;A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&amp;A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16432a1ae66aa9dda7a4f969a9cfcdf\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>The WH&amp;A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).</p>\n<p><b>5. Services</b></p>\n<p>Services include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af34eb1ba8fffd690a75318f8cf805f7\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>To date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>First, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Company Analysis</b></p>\n<p>I initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&amp;D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&amp;D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&amp;D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7a2222a8e8b9088e619b0b971193a1f\" tg-width=\"569\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>It is very important to capitalize on R&amp;D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.</p>\n<p><b>Discounted Cash Flow Model</b></p>\n<p>Now, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2da633d931f51b493d897d9c87ecee5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p>Now, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><i>Base Case Scenario</i>: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.</li>\n <li><i>Best Case Scenario</i>: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.</li>\n <li><i>Worst Case Scenario</i>: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Finally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.</p>\n<p><b>Sensitivity Analysis</b></p>\n<p>Moreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95f00eba768526d07d68fd846ecf998d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report</span></p>\n<p><b>Technical Analysis</b></p>\n<p>From the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecf3e5f45dcb5e30b092c02bbf94d6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:TradingView.com</span></p>\n<p><b>Final Thoughts</b></p>\n<p>Apple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&amp;P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Winter Is Coming</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Winter Is Coming\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 10:20 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435760-apple-stock-aapl-winter-is-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175906479","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple's stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period.\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share).\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, the stock price is following its ascending triangle pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images NewsCompany Overview\nApple Inc (AAPL) stock has rallied 449% in the last five years, outperforming the 102% rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. An outstanding return supported by underlying fundamentals. In particular, I would like to start the analysis with the latter.\nOver the last two decades, the dominant driver of Apple's success has been the iPhone. In 2016, iPhones accounted for 63% of total sales. This was a problem for Apple, and they knew it. The problem existed due to two main factors: first, the smartphone business was mature (with low growth rates); second, it was (and it is) a highly competitive business. However, Apple had something other competitors didn't have, a big iPhone owner base (which allows to sell more services for instance). Through the years Apple has been able to effectively diversify its revenue stream and it currently presents the structure represented below.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nLet's now take a look at each of these segments:\n1. iPhone\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the iPhone segment grew at a CAGR of 0.20% and it changed from representing 63.4% (2016) of total sales to 51% (\"TTM\"). I present below the growth rate for the iPhone segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest10-K report\nSo far this year the iPhone segment is showing a growth rate of 18.5% TTM, fueled by the new family of iPhone12 with 5G capabilities, and with interesting data coming from China. I believe that the transition to 5G will be the main driver of the growth in this segment. In this manner, I would like to report a piece of the transcript from theQ2 earnings call.\n\nIn the enterprise market, customers across many industries are accelerating their adoption of iPhone 12 and 5G as a key platform for the future of their business. Delta Airlines, for example, is putting iPhone 12 and 5G connectivity into the hands of flight attendants so they can provide the best passenger service possible as air travel rebounds.Openreach in the U.K. has started equipping tens of thousands of field engineers with iPhone 12 to speed up their deployment of broadband services to homes around the country. And UCHealth, a large health care provider in Colorado, was able to reduce per patient vaccination time from 3 minutes to only 30 seconds largely by moving from PC stations to iPhones. This has allowed their staff to rapidly scan and register new patients and vastly increase their daily vaccination capacity.\n\n2. iPad\nAs it was in the past, the iPad segment is more or less a constant number as a % of total sales, 9.6% in 2016 vs 9.1% TTM. From 2016 to 2020, the iPad segment grew at a CAGR of 3.56% (with an improving overall trend). I present below the growth rate for the iPad segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe TTM numbers show us an interesting picture with a growth rate of 24.9% TTM for the iPad segment which are driven by 3 factors: the M1 chip, the new 5G capabilities, and the fact that we were all at home. I see a lot of ways in which this new generation of iPads can be implemented. However, I also have to admit that there is a big player swimming in the same sea, the new 2-1 Laptops. The new 2-1 Laptops are a very interesting solution for those looking to have the best of the two worlds. In this last view, the iPad segment may represent a lower % of total sales, around 7.8% (vs current 9.1%).\n3. Mac\nFrom 2016 to 2020, the Mac segment grew at a CAGR of 5.81%, and also here, as it is for the iPad segment, the Mac segment represents a more or less constant number as % of total sales 10.6% in 2016 vs 10.4% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Mac segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe generation of new Macs powered by the M1 chip seems to be appreciated by the customers, in fact, the Mac segment presents a growth rate of 18.4% TTM so far this year. I personally tried this new generation of Macs and I have to admit, Apple knows very well how to delight its customers. Personal PCs are a highly competitive market and, even if I like and I use Apple products, I prefer to work with a Lenovo.\n4. Wearables, Home, and Accessories (WH&A)\nThe Wearables, Home, and Accessories segment includes sales of AirPods, Apple TV, Apple Watch, Beats products, HomePod, etc. This is where it gets interesting. From 2016 to 2020, the WH&A segment grew at a CAGR of 28.78%, and it changed from representing only 5.2% of total sales in 2016 to represent 10.8% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the WH&A segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nThe WH&A segment is showing a growth rate of 14.7% TTM driven by a strong performance from both Apple Watch Series 6 and Apple Watch SE. Apple Watch may have a very bright future in the years ahead, driven by Apple entering into the healthcare market. In fact, it can be used to monitor the health status of the person. Imagine you being close to having a heart attack, your Apple Watch may call an ambulance and save your life, not bad no? Finally, let's don't forget also the launch of Apple TV 4K and of the newest accessory, AirTag (I don't see a market for the latter, but I may be wrong).\n5. Services\nServices include sales from the Company’s advertising, AppleCare, digital content, and other services. From 2016 to 2020, the Services segment grew at a CAGR of 21.9% and it changed from representing 11.3% of total sales in 2016 to represent 18.6% TTM. I present below the growth rate for the Services segment over the last 5 years (2016-TTM).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTo date, the Services segment is showing a growth rate of 12.3% TTM. The growth is driven by App Store, Cloud Services, Music, Advertising, and Payment Services. The new services, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple News+, and Apple Card, are also starting to contribute to overall services growth, and continue to add users, content, and features. I believe that in the future, the Services segment will be the company's dominant segment. Below I present an interesting part I extrapolated from theQ4 earnings call.\n\nFirst, our installed base continues to grow and is at an all-time high across each major product category. Second, the number of both transacting and paid accounts on our digital content stores reached a new all-time high during the September quarter, with paid accounts increasing double digits in each of our geographic segments.Third, paid subscriptions grew more than 35 million sequentially, and we now have over 585 million paid subscriptions across the services on our platform, up 135 million from just a year ago. With this momentum, we are very confident to reach and exceed our increased target of 600 million paid subscriptions before the end of calendar 2020.\n\nCompany Analysis\nI initiate Apple with a Neutral rating and a fair value of $111.42/share (vs. the current price of $131.7/share). The fair value is an algorithm-adjusted value that accounts for different factors, fundamental and technical (e.g. DCF fair value, Momentum, etc.), and so it takes into consideration the Mr. Market mood. At the same time, the fair value which I obtained through the DCF model is equal to $105.68/share. Now before showing the results, the numbers used as the base are the trailing twelve-month numbers. Moreover, I also restated the financials since I capitalized on R&D expenses with an amortizable life of 3 years. I don't believe that in the case of Apple, R&D is an operating expense and for this reason, I treat it as CapEx. By taking into account the R&D, the following metrics have been restated (all numbers in $mm).\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nIt is very important to capitalize on R&D expense, if we don't, we are just keeping the company's biggest asset off-balance sheet.\nDiscounted Cash Flow Model\nNow, let's turn to the discounted cash flow valuation part. Below, you can see the results with the relative assumptions I have made.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nNow, this time I also present along with my estimates three possible scenarios:\n\nBase Case Scenario: The above DCF model represents my base case scenario. In the base case scenario, I assume the drivers of growth to be: the iPhone segment (driven by 5G transition), the Services segment (driven by a broader customer base), and the new powered M1 Macs segment. Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 12%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 7.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 27%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $105.68/share.\nBest Case Scenario: The business is booming! In the best-case scenario, I see again as the main drivers the one which I described for the base case scenario, however, in addition, I see a greater market penetration in China. Over the last 5 years, we can observe a falling pattern for sales in China, however, this year sales jumped 39.7% (with the iPhone segment rising substantially). Under this scenario, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 14%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 9.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 30%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $130.32/share.\nWorst Case Scenario: Well, this is a scenario that I would like to call like \"mature company scenario\". Under this scenario I see Apple growing a little above the growth rate of the economy and for this reason, I assume a Y1 growth rate of 10%, a CAGR Y2-Y5 of 3.1%, and a target operating margin in Y10 of 25%. The DCF fair value under this scenario is $81.03/share.\n\nFinally, for each scenario, I see Apple entering into the health care market with its Apple Watch. As you can imagine, I assign a different likelihood of market penetration in each of these scenarios.\nSensitivity Analysis\nMoreover, I also would like to provide the sensitivity analysis for the base case scenario.\nSource:Author's estimates using data from the latest 10-K report\nTechnical Analysis\nFrom the technical analysis point of view, I don't see any problem yet. The stock price is in a bullish mode, currently within an ascending triangle pattern. As of right now, the stock price is following its pattern and it is heading to the price target of $137/share or point D, where it is likely to bounce and head back to point E. If this scenario happens, point E is usually the point where stock price bounces once again and from that point, the stock goes higher (it is just a technical analysis assumption, take it as is).\nSource:TradingView.com\nFinal Thoughts\nApple is a mature company that is able to see a problem and solve it years ahead. By looking at the fair value, computed under the base case scenario, we can argue that the stock is currently overvalued but not by that much. For what concern risks, the difference between the best-case and the worst-case scenario can be used as a proxy of risk. Taking this into consideration I don't see big reasoning to panic, however, it is also true that I see an upcoming correction for the market. Many indicators, technical and fundamental, are suggesting to me that the market is too heavy right now (even if the S&P500 may go higher, perhaps in the 4400 area). To conclude, I don't think to close out my whole Apple position, however, I will close out 60% of it once it reaches my price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":562,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167806634,"gmtCreate":1624255974028,"gmtModify":1634008790688,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570270082896201","authorIdStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmm..&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmmm..&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Hmmmm..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167806634","repostId":"1125265238","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":258,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":690113435,"gmtCreate":1639646608338,"gmtModify":1639646608423,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570270082896201","authorIdStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690113435","repostId":"1185807512","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1185807512","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639642251,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185807512?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 16:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185807512","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"要闻\n报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%\n中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了1","content":"<p><b>要闻</b></p>\n<p><b>报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%</b></p>\n<p>中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。</p>\n<p><b>发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%</b></p>\n<p>国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f710bc60948a900fdca7beac9fd1850\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">兖州煤业</a>飙涨超24%领衔走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">中煤能源</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002821\">凯莱英</a>皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>跌3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌1.4%。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409c1305a6844ea952eeaa7cb2dc3628\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601898\">中煤能源</a>等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">美锦能源</a>等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300612\">宣亚国际</a>20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300045\">华力创通</a>亦20%涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300578\">会畅通讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">万兴科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600640\">新国脉</a>等10股涨停或涨超10%。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07210fef01256b9990d896d8a79bd6b0\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>元宇宙概念股</span></p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07a1c34f3c058243769c1190230592b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36516b20672777eb4226ec3575e041a\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。</p>\n<p>因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9bf6740112cba724f7d996b177000\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5bc6d6af3630365c39619dce47a99a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e811cafc24779962d2c4b160f6508357\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场综述：什么情况？元宇宙沾边就涨，龙头股4天翻倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-16 16:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>要闻</b></p>\n<p><b>报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%</b></p>\n<p>中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。</p>\n<p><b>发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%</b></p>\n<p>国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。</p>\n<p><b>港股</b></p>\n<p>港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f710bc60948a900fdca7beac9fd1850\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01171\">兖州煤业</a>飙涨超24%领衔走高，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01898\">中煤能源</a>涨超12%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01088\">中国神华</a>等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002821\">凯莱英</a>皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹半导体</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">中芯国际</a>皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">快手-W</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">百度集团-SW</a>涨近2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">京东集团-SW</a>跌3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>跌1.4%。</p>\n<p><b>A股</b></p>\n<p>两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/409c1305a6844ea952eeaa7cb2dc3628\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601898\">中煤能源</a>等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000723\">美锦能源</a>等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600809\">山西汾酒</a>跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300612\">宣亚国际</a>20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300045\">华力创通</a>亦20%涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300578\">会畅通讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300624\">万兴科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600640\">新国脉</a>等10股涨停或涨超10%。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07210fef01256b9990d896d8a79bd6b0\" tg-width=\"460\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>元宇宙概念股</span></p>\n<p><b>美股</b></p>\n<p>美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f07a1c34f3c058243769c1190230592b\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"183\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>欧股</b></p>\n<p>欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36516b20672777eb4226ec3575e041a\" tg-width=\"815\" tg-height=\"289\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>原油</b></p>\n<p>原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。</p>\n<p>因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9bf6740112cba724f7d996b177000\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"822\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5bc6d6af3630365c39619dce47a99a\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>黄金</b></p>\n<p>黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。</p>\n<p>尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e811cafc24779962d2c4b160f6508357\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5d11890cd6ccd454a56d86737fd3353","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","HSCCI":"红筹指数",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","000001.SH":"上证指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","HSI":"恒生指数","00981":"中芯国际","HSCEI":"国企指数",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185807512","content_text":"要闻\n报告：2021年中国游戏市场实际销售收入同比增长6.4%\n中国音数协游戏工委等发布《2021年中国游戏产业报告》显示，2021年，中国游戏市场实际销售收入2965.13亿元，比2020年增加了178.26亿元，同比增长6.4%。虽然实际销售收入依然保持增长态势，但是增幅比例较去年同比缩减近15%。\n发改委：11月份全社会用电量同比增长3.1%\n国家发展改革委新闻发言人表示，1—11月份全国全社会用电量同比增长11.4%。其中，一产、二产、三产和居民生活用电量同比分别增长18.1%、10.2%、19%和7.5%。分地区看，全国19个省（区、市）用电增速超过12%，其中西藏、湖北、江西、青海、四川、浙江、福建7个省（区）增速超过15%。11月份，全社会用电量同比增长3.1%(前值6.1%)。\n港股\n港股午后回升，三大指数尾盘皆由跌转涨。恒指涨0.23%，国指涨0.08%，恒生科技指数涨0.46%，盘中曾大跌近2%创新低。\n\n盘面上，煤价企稳回升，煤炭板块全天强势领涨，兖州煤业飙涨超24%领衔走高，中煤能源涨超12%，中国神华等皆上涨；昨日大跌的生物技术股集体反弹，药明生物、凯莱英皆升超10%，电力股、港口航运股持续活跃，教育股、餐饮股、钢铁股普涨，物管股与内房股亦拉升反弹。另一方面，半导体股表现最弱，华虹半导体、中芯国际皆下跌，烟草概念股、内银股、手游股普跌。大型科技股涨跌不一，快手-W涨超3%，百度集团-SW涨近2%，京东集团-SW跌3%，美团-W跌1.4%。\nA股\n两市主要指数上涨，沪指早盘红盘震荡，午后持续走高，全天收涨0.75%报3675点，深成指涨0.58%报15112点，创业板指涨0.74%报3490点。两市2977股上涨，1443股下跌，成交额连续40个交易日在万亿上方，北上资金净买入58.85亿。\n\n周期板块表现突出，煤炭股全线大涨，中煤能源等多股涨停；钢铁板块全天强势，宝钢涨超6%；油气、环保、建筑、传媒娱乐等板块大涨靠前，氢能源概念午后大涨，美锦能源等股涨停。白酒板块领跌，山西汾酒跌6.5%。元宇宙概念现涨停潮，龙头宣亚国际20%涨停，这是其连续第4个涨停，短短的4日暴涨超一倍；华力创通亦20%涨停，会畅通讯、万兴科技、新国脉等10股涨停或涨超10%。\n元宇宙概念股\n美股\n美股股指期货小幅走高，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.36%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.68%；标普500指数期货涨0.48%。\n\n欧股\n欧洲主要指数集体大幅高开，截止发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.59%，英国富时100指数涨1.18%，法国CAC40指数涨1.62%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.86%。\n\n原油\n原油期货延续涨势，截止发稿，WTI原油报71.64美元/桶，涨1.09%；布油现报74.58美元/桶，涨0.95%。\n因美国库存数据显示消费者需求强劲；但因变异毒株加速传染以及美联储加息预期，油价存下行风险；警惕变异毒株传染在某些国家和地区加速爆发。\n\n黄金\n黄金期货继续走高，现涨1.25%，报1786.6美元/盎司。\n尽管美指止跌企稳，投资者将注意力从美联储转移到其他关键的央行会议上。英国央行和欧洲央行将在日内晚些时候公布新政。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9,"00981":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSTECH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":121239166,"gmtCreate":1624464631055,"gmtModify":1634005698698,"author":{"id":"3570270082896201","authorId":"3570270082896201","name":"justplainame","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3570270082896201","authorIdStr":"3570270082896201"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121239166","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}