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网球宝宝
10-10
excuse me?
抱歉,原内容已删除
网球宝宝
2023-02-04
$Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY)$
网球宝宝
2022-09-06
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
网球宝宝
2022-04-08
好的 稳中向好 中国人民也充满信心
网信办:互联网企业近半年来用工人数保持平稳
网球宝宝
2021-03-12
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
知道什么叫哀莫大于心死么
网球宝宝
2021-02-18
$Romeo Power, Inc.(RMO)$
再见
网球宝宝
2021-02-13
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
我会慢慢等 慢慢等 慢慢等,等红灯变绿灯。。
网球宝宝
2021-02-13
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
恭喜我的宝贝重回20。
网球宝宝
2021-02-10
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
我还在坚持 2万股都没卖
网球宝宝
2021-02-10
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
早知道是这样 如梦一场 我又何必把爱都放在同一个地方
网球宝宝
2021-02-05
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
无条件为你,不顾明天的安稳,为你变坚强,相信你的眼神,不敢想不敢问,有一天坏的可能,无条件为你,放弃单独的旅程,为你坚强,就不怕牺牲。
网球宝宝
2021-02-05
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
微宏的弱势是没有乘用车市场,但今年势必会补上。并宣布和一个知名车企合作
网球宝宝
2021-02-04
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
庄家砸盘低位吸筹 大家拿住了
网球宝宝
2021-02-03
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
我的目标价60
网球宝宝
2020-12-15
$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$
心里有点慌 以为会站稳15附近
网球宝宝
2020-12-15
$CITIC Capital Acquisition Corp.(CCAC)$
中信投的不敢买
网球宝宝
2020-12-12
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
今天无情被大盘砸下来
网球宝宝
2020-11-25
$Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp.(SOLO)$
买之前能不能做点做点功课啊,三轮车长线你看好吗[喷血]
网球宝宝
2020-11-20
$晶科能源(JKS)$
🚀发射
网球宝宝
2020-11-19
$晶科能源(JKS)$
65 7000股 走不走 ,可以熬就怕趋势走坏
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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me?","listText":"excuse me?","text":"excuse me?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358512621989960","repostId":"2474751749","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":622664952,"gmtCreate":1675465249676,"gmtModify":1675465250544,"author":{"id":"3566344323710024","authorId":"3566344323710024","name":"网球宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35ef106bf0499e3d6a78b6494521c83","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566344323710024","authorIdStr":"3566344323710024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JOBY\">$Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JOBY\">$Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY)$ </a>","text":"$Joby Aviation, 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中国人民也充满信心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619418347","repostId":"1162994791","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162994791","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1649387130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162994791?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-08 11:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"网信办:互联网企业近半年来用工人数保持平稳","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162994791","media":"中国网信网","summary":"对未来发展充满信心。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近期,网传多家大型互联网企业进行大规模裁员并引发舆论热议。对此,中国网信网对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等12家互联网企业用工和业务发展情况进行访谈。企业纷纷表示,互联网行业人员流动普遍较快,目前员工数量和业务发展情况总体稳定,对未来发展充满信心。</p><p><b>业务稳健发展,用工人数稳中有增</b></p><p>各互联网企业主营业务稳步开展,部分新业务增长强劲,营收规模屡创新高。与此同时,企业用工总量稳中有增。经统计,2021年7月到2022年3月中旬,腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动、美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>等12家企业总离职人数21.68万人,总招聘人数29.59万人,净增用工7.91万人,其中11家企业招聘人数多于离职人数。</p><p>腾讯公司表示,得益于我国经济平稳增长,公司业务保持稳定增长态势,2021年营业收入同比增长16.2%。与此同时,人员规模不断扩大,截至2021年底,公司拥有11.28万名员工,同比增长31.3%。今年,还将持续引进核心科技人员和优秀应届毕业生,预计总员工人数仍会增加。</p><p>美团公司反映,2021年公司营业收入同比增长56%。截至2021年底,美团交易用户数同比增长35.2%,活跃商家数同比增长29.2%。伴随业务的拓展,公司到店、到家、网约车、骑行等业务线和职能线人员,均有一定程度的增长。去年7月份以来,净增员工1.7万人,今年还将继续推进应届生招聘计划。</p><p><b>业务不断优化调整,岗位人员增减有序</b></p><p>多家企业从市场竞争、投入产出和长远发展等考虑,在做大做强主业的同时,对部分业务进行调整优化,相应岗位人员有减有增,但员工总人数保持稳中有升态势。</p><p>微博公司介绍称,根据业务发展需要,近期公司对亏损业务进行减员优化,同时扩大与内容相关人员规模,保持其他板块人员稳定,预计今年总员工数量在去年基础上有所增加。</p><p>京东集团因企业经营形势发生变化,选择聚焦主业,围绕供应链等业务,持续加大优秀人才招聘力度,对探索型业务作出一定调整,涉及部分员工,但集团员工数量总体保持稳定。</p><p>北京字节跳动公司表示,去年下半年公司裁撤部分业务部门,对一些条线岗位进行优化调整,但同期,公司加大内容质量、技术、运营等方面人员的招聘力度,去年以来总员工数量还有所增加。</p><p><b>聚焦科技创新,多举措培育培养人才</b></p><p>面对疫情冲击、复杂外部形势和激烈行业竞争,部分企业主动应变,加大科技创新,招聘高层次人才,着力提升核心竞争力,同时采取多种措施,稳定现有员工队伍。</p><p>受疫情和外部环境因素影响,百度集团对部分业务组织战略进行了调整,集中力量加大对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云、芯片、自动驾驶的人员和技术投入,2021年相关领域研发投入221亿元。百度集团表示,目前公司在自动驾驶、智能交通、机器翻译、飞桨深度学习框架等关键技术领域取得显著优势,员工数量总体稳定。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团表示,虽然外部环境变化,企业发展面临新的挑战,但集团主动拥抱变化进行业务调整,积极适应新环境,聚焦重点领域与客户价值,要用更有效的供给更好地服务平台用户。为吸引人才、留住人才,集团升级员工福利方案,设立交通补贴,试行灵活办公制度,核心业务近一年新增员工九千余人。</p><p>蚂蚁集团持续在数字科技和全球化等方向发力,提供更加丰富的数字支付解决方案,并通过技术与模式创新,助力传统行业数字化转型。集团高度重视人才引进和培养,并采取多种措施,提高员工福利、强化人才技能培训、扩大人才发展空间,吸引和留住人才,用工人数总体稳定,略有增员。</p><p>访谈中,多家企业表示,当前我国网信事业发展进入新的阶段,网信企业身逢盛世、前景壮阔,将抢抓发展机遇,坚定不移做大做强,同时积极履行社会责任,努力保持现有员工队伍稳定,着力为社会创造更多就业岗位。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603719063632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>网信办:互联网企业近半年来用工人数保持平稳</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n网信办:互联网企业近半年来用工人数保持平稳\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-08 11:05 北京时间 <a href=http://www.cac.gov.cn/2022-04/08/c_1651028527295115.htm><strong>中国网信网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期,网传多家大型互联网企业进行大规模裁员并引发舆论热议。对此,中国网信网对腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、京东等12家互联网企业用工和业务发展情况进行访谈。企业纷纷表示,互联网行业人员流动普遍较快,目前员工数量和业务发展情况总体稳定,对未来发展充满信心。业务稳健发展,用工人数稳中有增各互联网企业主营业务稳步开展,部分新业务增长强劲,营收规模屡创新高。与此同时,企业用工总量稳中有增。经统计,2021年7月到...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.cac.gov.cn/2022-04/08/c_1651028527295115.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99660c2bb468cee78b3ee90163758d58","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://www.cac.gov.cn/2022-04/08/c_1651028527295115.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162994791","content_text":"近期,网传多家大型互联网企业进行大规模裁员并引发舆论热议。对此,中国网信网对腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、京东等12家互联网企业用工和业务发展情况进行访谈。企业纷纷表示,互联网行业人员流动普遍较快,目前员工数量和业务发展情况总体稳定,对未来发展充满信心。业务稳健发展,用工人数稳中有增各互联网企业主营业务稳步开展,部分新业务增长强劲,营收规模屡创新高。与此同时,企业用工总量稳中有增。经统计,2021年7月到2022年3月中旬,腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动、美团、拼多多、快手、百度、京东、网易、微博、哔哩哔哩、蚂蚁集团等12家企业总离职人数21.68万人,总招聘人数29.59万人,净增用工7.91万人,其中11家企业招聘人数多于离职人数。腾讯公司表示,得益于我国经济平稳增长,公司业务保持稳定增长态势,2021年营业收入同比增长16.2%。与此同时,人员规模不断扩大,截至2021年底,公司拥有11.28万名员工,同比增长31.3%。今年,还将持续引进核心科技人员和优秀应届毕业生,预计总员工人数仍会增加。美团公司反映,2021年公司营业收入同比增长56%。截至2021年底,美团交易用户数同比增长35.2%,活跃商家数同比增长29.2%。伴随业务的拓展,公司到店、到家、网约车、骑行等业务线和职能线人员,均有一定程度的增长。去年7月份以来,净增员工1.7万人,今年还将继续推进应届生招聘计划。业务不断优化调整,岗位人员增减有序多家企业从市场竞争、投入产出和长远发展等考虑,在做大做强主业的同时,对部分业务进行调整优化,相应岗位人员有减有增,但员工总人数保持稳中有升态势。微博公司介绍称,根据业务发展需要,近期公司对亏损业务进行减员优化,同时扩大与内容相关人员规模,保持其他板块人员稳定,预计今年总员工数量在去年基础上有所增加。京东集团因企业经营形势发生变化,选择聚焦主业,围绕供应链等业务,持续加大优秀人才招聘力度,对探索型业务作出一定调整,涉及部分员工,但集团员工数量总体保持稳定。北京字节跳动公司表示,去年下半年公司裁撤部分业务部门,对一些条线岗位进行优化调整,但同期,公司加大内容质量、技术、运营等方面人员的招聘力度,去年以来总员工数量还有所增加。聚焦科技创新,多举措培育培养人才面对疫情冲击、复杂外部形势和激烈行业竞争,部分企业主动应变,加大科技创新,招聘高层次人才,着力提升核心竞争力,同时采取多种措施,稳定现有员工队伍。受疫情和外部环境因素影响,百度集团对部分业务组织战略进行了调整,集中力量加大对智能云、芯片、自动驾驶的人员和技术投入,2021年相关领域研发投入221亿元。百度集团表示,目前公司在自动驾驶、智能交通、机器翻译、飞桨深度学习框架等关键技术领域取得显著优势,员工数量总体稳定。阿里巴巴集团表示,虽然外部环境变化,企业发展面临新的挑战,但集团主动拥抱变化进行业务调整,积极适应新环境,聚焦重点领域与客户价值,要用更有效的供给更好地服务平台用户。为吸引人才、留住人才,集团升级员工福利方案,设立交通补贴,试行灵活办公制度,核心业务近一年新增员工九千余人。蚂蚁集团持续在数字科技和全球化等方向发力,提供更加丰富的数字支付解决方案,并通过技术与模式创新,助力传统行业数字化转型。集团高度重视人才引进和培养,并采取多种措施,提高员工福利、强化人才技能培训、扩大人才发展空间,吸引和留住人才,用工人数总体稳定,略有增员。访谈中,多家企业表示,当前我国网信事业发展进入新的阶段,网信企业身逢盛世、前景壮阔,将抢抓发展机遇,坚定不移做大做强,同时积极履行社会责任,努力保持现有员工队伍稳定,着力为社会创造更多就业岗位。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547635365309209","authorId":"3547635365309209","name":"Julio堂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61010cf4fad5ebcf13d5d07866c6ae93","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547635365309209","authorIdStr":"3547635365309209"},"content":"我信他才怪,经济大环境这么差,尤其各大互联网被砍了这么多现有和未来业务发展,招那么多人干啥喝西北风吗。唯一有可能的没有说大面积裁员的是现在互联网招的外包特别多,估计被他们按正式员工一起参与统计了。而外包是不能算大厂新招的,他们隶属于出租人的母公司","text":"我信他才怪,经济大环境这么差,尤其各大互联网被砍了这么多现有和未来业务发展,招那么多人干啥喝西北风吗。唯一有可能的没有说大面积裁员的是现在互联网招的外包特别多,估计被他们按正式员工一起参与统计了。而外包是不能算大厂新招的,他们隶属于出租人的母公司","html":"我信他才怪,经济大环境这么差,尤其各大互联网被砍了这么多现有和未来业务发展,招那么多人干啥喝西北风吗。唯一有可能的没有说大面积裁员的是现在互联网招的外包特别多,估计被他们按正式员工一起参与统计了。而外包是不能算大厂新招的,他们隶属于出租人的母公司"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328262152,"gmtCreate":1615531493676,"gmtModify":1703490520483,"author":{"id":"3566344323710024","authorId":"3566344323710024","name":"网球宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35ef106bf0499e3d6a78b6494521c83","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566344323710024","authorIdStr":"3566344323710024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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不跌20%表演吃屎吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306154532","repostId":"1120240427","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120240427","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604317629,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120240427?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-02 19:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120240427","media":"最贪婪的交易员","summary":"美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,","content":"<p>美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。</p>\n<p>股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。</p>\n<p>美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是<b>1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录</b>。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fa07764170c0a24b0cf3f8097f81162\" tg-width=\"865\" tg-height=\"491\"></p>\n<p>道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81630991209b611e97ae8dc9370ac9dd\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅,接近44这个十分重要的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffcea60382b18a72bd9a358261c19e7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\"></p>\n<p>WTI原油跌到了34美元水平,为5月以来最低。</p>\n<p>总而言之,最关键也是最危险的一周,来了。</p>\n<p><b>最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程</b></p>\n<p>投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好,据说这利好民主党,共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。</p>\n<p>一些城市的街道严阵以待,商户用木板把店面封闭,以免在大选夜遭到破坏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381c9f9c314071ffd31c707af0b6b023\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>投注网站PredictIt显示,拜登胜率为66%,高于一周前的62.9%;川普的胜率约为39%,也略高于一周前的37.1%。</p>\n<p>Real Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示,拜登的支持率为51.3%,川普为43.5%。</p>\n<p>我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4984869d65719b08166c56dc5e90d024\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>从周末的民调看,佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。</p>\n<p>另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际,前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意,这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程,体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。</p>\n<p>宾州也是最重要的战场州之一,现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年,川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州,拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。</p>\n<p>但民调不可尽信,如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车,会发生什么?结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张,而拜登只能赢得259张。</p>\n<p><b>若真如此,那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱,因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b9b60aeca4804936f45d0b8e5ef7e6\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"428\"></p>\n<p>刚刚过去的周末,还有一个重要的变化。</p>\n<p>CNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔,社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。</p>\n<p>CNN甚至发表了一篇社论称,川普值得第二个任期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcec13920b4b5843cac8e7170134cb13\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p>在这大选前的最后时刻,如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸,难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。</p>\n<p>再者,虽然这个事件来得比较晚,可能还不足以逆转选情,但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面,大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下,事件的影响也会很长久。</p>\n<p><b>做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%,川普更断言,“大选日当晚不会出结果,要等好几周”。</p>\n<p>在一些最重要的“摇摆州”,混乱的前兆已经出现。</p>\n<p>宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票,有些郡出现大量选票遗失,<b>得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>整体而言,威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着,两位候选人的得票可能相当接近,从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。</b></p>\n<p>提醒一下:各个州验证结果,和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日(投票后35天),或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。</p>\n<p>根据目前已知的情况,<b>佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回,北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票,并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。</b></p>\n<p>因此,佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉,给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。</p>\n<p><b>例如,如果川普拿不下佛州,胜选的可能性就会小很多,市场会立即认为他已经输了。</b></p>\n<p>同样的,如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席,那么,市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。</p>\n<p>不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天,<b>如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近,那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。</b></p>\n<p><b>如何交易大选?</b></p>\n<p>首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。</p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示,<b>未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。</b>按照经验,如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似,就应该降低风险敞口。</p>\n<p>相反,<b>如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似,那么即使VIX飙到44,你还是可以增加风险敞口。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be4150424767aa43652dbd7a3ab9fb5\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"502\"></p>\n<p>至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑,我们可以通过下表直观了解:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a57dff41968ff729e6a97000c9b6ec5\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>大选结果对于各类资产的影响,在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。</p>\n<p>对美股而言,<b>无论川普还是拜登获胜,都是有利的</b>——前者有减税政策,后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。</p>\n<p>而美股上涨的幅度,则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。</p>\n<p>当然了,<b>最坏的结果是:选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%</b>——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者,美股可能跌入熊市。</p>\n<p>富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者:</p>\n<blockquote>\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡,如果结果不明,动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验,银行股最受伤。\n</blockquote>\n<p>同为风险资产,原油的前景就比美股惨多了。</p>\n<p>要是川普继续当选,当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变,美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续,油价应当获利上涨。</p>\n<p>但要是拜登上台,<b>无论民主党能否控制参议院,新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划,油价必遭重创。</b></p>\n<p>美元和黄金,预计不会展现出明显负相关性。</p>\n<p>一方面,虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满,但大选结果对美元汇率的影响,和美股一样,<b>更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩,而不是总统的个人意志。</b></p>\n<p>如果拜登当选且拿下参议院,超大规模刺激法案出炉,对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反,川普连任,两党分裂延续,美元便会得到喘息之机。</p>\n<p>另一方面,<b>要是大选结果出现争议,黄金和加密货币会受益。</b>因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡,还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5c2329872d8d675ac92f4a7a15d5c9\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p>总结下来,美股的大选交易逻辑就是:<b>国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果,因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。</b></p>\n<p>美股最担心的是,拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院,或者川普胜出,因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。</p>","source":"lsy1572248118994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n做好准备,本周有暴跌20%的风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-02 19:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA><strong>最贪婪的交易员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e092e4cceb42b6f10c3f508ff5e2078","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120240427","content_text":"美国大选投票日前夕,我们见证了一场大清仓,股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间,创7个月以来最大周跌幅,十月下旬标普500就跌了5%,是1987年(-10.9%)以来同期最差的表现,也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区,较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅,接近44这个十分重要的水平。\n\nWTI原油跌到了34美元水平,为5月以来最低。\n总而言之,最关键也是最危险的一周,来了。\n最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程\n投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好,据说这利好民主党,共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。\n一些城市的街道严阵以待,商户用木板把店面封闭,以免在大选夜遭到破坏。\n\n投注网站PredictIt显示,拜登胜率为66%,高于一周前的62.9%;川普的胜率约为39%,也略高于一周前的37.1%。\nReal Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示,拜登的支持率为51.3%,川普为43.5%。\n我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。\n\n从周末的民调看,佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。\n另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际,前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意,这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程,体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。\n宾州也是最重要的战场州之一,现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年,川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州,拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。\n但民调不可尽信,如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车,会发生什么?结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张,而拜登只能赢得259张。\n若真如此,那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱,因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。\n\n刚刚过去的周末,还有一个重要的变化。\nCNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔,社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。\nCNN甚至发表了一篇社论称,川普值得第二个任期。\n\n在这大选前的最后时刻,如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸,难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。\n再者,虽然这个事件来得比较晚,可能还不足以逆转选情,但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面,大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下,事件的影响也会很长久。\n做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备\n摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%,川普更断言,“大选日当晚不会出结果,要等好几周”。\n在一些最重要的“摇摆州”,混乱的前兆已经出现。\n宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票,有些郡出现大量选票遗失,得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。\n整体而言,威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着,两位候选人的得票可能相当接近,从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。\n提醒一下:各个州验证结果,和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日(投票后35天),或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。\n根据目前已知的情况,佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回,北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票,并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。\n因此,佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉,给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。\n例如,如果川普拿不下佛州,胜选的可能性就会小很多,市场会立即认为他已经输了。\n同样的,如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席,那么,市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。\n不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天,如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近,那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。\n如何交易大选?\n首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。\n恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示,未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。按照经验,如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似,就应该降低风险敞口。\n相反,如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似,那么即使VIX飙到44,你还是可以增加风险敞口。\n\n至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑,我们可以通过下表直观了解:\n\n大选结果对于各类资产的影响,在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。\n对美股而言,无论川普还是拜登获胜,都是有利的——前者有减税政策,后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。\n而美股上涨的幅度,则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。\n当然了,最坏的结果是:选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者,美股可能跌入熊市。\n富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者:\n\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡,如果结果不明,动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验,银行股最受伤。\n\n同为风险资产,原油的前景就比美股惨多了。\n要是川普继续当选,当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变,美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续,油价应当获利上涨。\n但要是拜登上台,无论民主党能否控制参议院,新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划,油价必遭重创。\n美元和黄金,预计不会展现出明显负相关性。\n一方面,虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满,但大选结果对美元汇率的影响,和美股一样,更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩,而不是总统的个人意志。\n如果拜登当选且拿下参议院,超大规模刺激法案出炉,对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反,川普连任,两党分裂延续,美元便会得到喘息之机。\n另一方面,要是大选结果出现争议,黄金和加密货币会受益。因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡,还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。\n\n总结下来,美股的大选交易逻辑就是:国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果,因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。\n美股最担心的是,拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院,或者川普胜出,因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386855740,"gmtCreate":1613154095680,"gmtModify":1613154095680,"author":{"id":"3566344323710024","authorId":"3566344323710024","name":"网球宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35ef106bf0499e3d6a78b6494521c83","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566344323710024","authorIdStr":"3566344323710024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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