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网球宝宝

网球宝宝

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IP属地：江苏

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0勋章

10-10

excuse me？

高盛：中国是必须要配置的资产，我们一定要大搞特搞

2023-02-04

$Joby Aviation, Inc.(JOBY)$

2022-09-06

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$

2022-04-08

好的稳中向好中国人民也充满信心

网信办：互联网企业近半年来用工人数保持平稳

2021-03-12

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$知道什么叫哀莫大于心死么

2021-02-18

$Romeo Power, Inc.(RMO)$再见

2021-02-13

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$我会慢慢等慢慢等慢慢等，等红灯变绿灯。。

2021-02-13

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$恭喜我的宝贝重回20。

2021-02-10

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$我还在坚持 2万股都没卖

2021-02-10

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$早知道是这样如梦一场我又何必把爱都放在同一个地方

2021-02-05

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$无条件为你，不顾明天的安稳，为你变坚强，相信你的眼神，不敢想不敢问，有一天坏的可能，无条件为你，放弃单独的旅程，为你坚强，就不怕牺牲。

2021-02-05

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$微宏的弱势是没有乘用车市场，但今年势必会补上。并宣布和一个知名车企合作

2021-02-04

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$庄家砸盘低位吸筹大家拿住了

2021-02-03

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$我的目标价60

2020-12-15

$Tuscan Holdings Corp(THCB)$心里有点慌以为会站稳15附近

2020-12-15

$CITIC Capital Acquisition Corp.(CCAC)$中信投的不敢买

2020-12-12

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$今天无情被大盘砸下来

2020-11-25

$Electrameccanica Vehicles Corp.(SOLO)$买之前能不能做点做点功课啊，三轮车长线你看好吗[喷血]

2020-11-20

$晶科能源(JKS)$🚀发射

2020-11-19

$晶科能源(JKS)$65 7000股走不走，可以熬就怕趋势走坏

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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68da0043a3f7932eb6870829ddb8962d","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/hy/hyjz/2024-10-10/doc-incrzuhw9136656.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2474751749","content_text":"2024上海全球资产管理论坛今日举行。高盛中国联席主管、高盛（中国）证券有限责任公司董事长范翔出席并演讲。　　谈及如果对外讲好中国故事，范翔表示，过去两三年中，各家金融机构都有很多讨论。“我们也都蛮难的，就像是在家里受尽了欺负和委屈的小媳妇儿，最后出去还要说我老公对我可好呢”。　　但他强调，经过这两三年的讨论发现，不管是公司领导还是客户，应该多来中国，并且也希望国内的客户多出国，因为交流是非常必要的。　　范翔表示，目前高盛内部已有共识。　　第一，中国已是全球第二大经济体，“这是非常重要的，而且再往后的几十年，我看不到任何第三大经济实体能超过我们”。因此，中国是必须要配置的资产，“不管是从投资的角度讲，还是全球客户发展自身市场的角度讲，中国都是必须来的地方”，他强调。　　“我们的观点就是，高盛一定要大搞特搞”，他说，高盛还在持续进行不同展业和不同注资。　　第二，范翔强调，加强交流尤为重要。“更多的中国客户开始想走出去，这也给我们创造了非常多的机会，这是我们的强项”。　　“这几年有可能不是中国的年，但21世纪始终是中国的世纪”，他说。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":98,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":622664952,"gmtCreate":1675465249676,"gmtModify":1675465250544,"author":{"id":"3566344323710024","authorId":"3566344323710024","name":"网球宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35ef106bf0499e3d6a78b6494521c83","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566344323710024","idStr":"3566344323710024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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中国人民也充满信心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619418347","repostId":"1162994791","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162994791","pubTimestamp":1649387130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162994791?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-08 11:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"网信办：互联网企业近半年来用工人数保持平稳","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162994791","media":"中国网信网","summary":"对未来发展充满信心。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>近期，网传多家大型互联网企业进行大规模裁员并引发舆论热议。对此，中国网信网对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>等12家互联网企业用工和业务发展情况进行访谈。企业纷纷表示，互联网行业人员流动普遍较快，目前员工数量和业务发展情况总体稳定，对未来发展充满信心。</p><p><b>业务稳健发展，用工人数稳中有增</b></p><p>各互联网企业主营业务稳步开展，部分新业务增长强劲，营收规模屡创新高。与此同时，企业用工总量稳中有增。经统计，2021年7月到2022年3月中旬，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动、美团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、快手、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、京东、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>等12家企业总离职人数21.68万人，总招聘人数29.59万人，净增用工7.91万人，其中11家企业招聘人数多于离职人数。</p><p>腾讯公司表示，得益于我国经济平稳增长，公司业务保持稳定增长态势，2021年营业收入同比增长16.2%。与此同时，人员规模不断扩大，截至2021年底，公司拥有11.28万名员工，同比增长31.3%。今年，还将持续引进核心科技人员和优秀应届毕业生，预计总员工人数仍会增加。</p><p>美团公司反映，2021年公司营业收入同比增长56%。截至2021年底，美团交易用户数同比增长35.2%，活跃商家数同比增长29.2%。伴随业务的拓展，公司到店、到家、网约车、骑行等业务线和职能线人员，均有一定程度的增长。去年7月份以来，净增员工1.7万人，今年还将继续推进应届生招聘计划。</p><p><b>业务不断优化调整，岗位人员增减有序</b></p><p>多家企业从市场竞争、投入产出和长远发展等考虑，在做大做强主业的同时，对部分业务进行调整优化，相应岗位人员有减有增，但员工总人数保持稳中有升态势。</p><p>微博公司介绍称，根据业务发展需要，近期公司对亏损业务进行减员优化，同时扩大与内容相关人员规模，保持其他板块人员稳定，预计今年总员工数量在去年基础上有所增加。</p><p>京东集团因企业经营形势发生变化，选择聚焦主业，围绕供应链等业务，持续加大优秀人才招聘力度，对探索型业务作出一定调整，涉及部分员工，但集团员工数量总体保持稳定。</p><p>北京字节跳动公司表示，去年下半年公司裁撤部分业务部门，对一些条线岗位进行优化调整，但同期，公司加大内容质量、技术、运营等方面人员的招聘力度，去年以来总员工数量还有所增加。</p><p><b>聚焦科技创新，多举措培育培养人才</b></p><p>面对疫情冲击、复杂外部形势和激烈行业竞争，部分企业主动应变，加大科技创新，招聘高层次人才，着力提升核心竞争力，同时采取多种措施，稳定现有员工队伍。</p><p>受疫情和外部环境因素影响，百度集团对部分业务组织战略进行了调整，集中力量加大对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>云、芯片、自动驾驶的人员和技术投入，2021年相关领域研发投入221亿元。百度集团表示，目前公司在自动驾驶、智能交通、机器翻译、飞桨深度学习框架等关键技术领域取得显著优势，员工数量总体稳定。</p><p>阿里巴巴集团表示，虽然外部环境变化，企业发展面临新的挑战，但集团主动拥抱变化进行业务调整，积极适应新环境，聚焦重点领域与客户价值，要用更有效的供给更好地服务平台用户。为吸引人才、留住人才，集团升级员工福利方案，设立交通补贴，试行灵活办公制度，核心业务近一年新增员工九千余人。</p><p>蚂蚁集团持续在数字科技和全球化等方向发力，提供更加丰富的数字支付解决方案，并通过技术与模式创新，助力传统行业数字化转型。集团高度重视人才引进和培养，并采取多种措施，提高员工福利、强化人才技能培训、扩大人才发展空间，吸引和留住人才，用工人数总体稳定，略有增员。</p><p>访谈中，多家企业表示，当前我国网信事业发展进入新的阶段，网信企业身逢盛世、前景壮阔，将抢抓发展机遇，坚定不移做大做强，同时积极履行社会责任，努力保持现有员工队伍稳定，着力为社会创造更多就业岗位。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603719063632","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>网信办：互联网企业近半年来用工人数保持平稳</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.cac.gov.cn/2022-04/08/c_1651028527295115.htm\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99660c2bb468cee78b3ee90163758d58","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"source_url":"http://www.cac.gov.cn/2022-04/08/c_1651028527295115.htm","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162994791","content_text":"近期，网传多家大型互联网企业进行大规模裁员并引发舆论热议。对此，中国网信网对腾讯、阿里巴巴、美团、京东等12家互联网企业用工和业务发展情况进行访谈。企业纷纷表示，互联网行业人员流动普遍较快，目前员工数量和业务发展情况总体稳定，对未来发展充满信心。业务稳健发展，用工人数稳中有增各互联网企业主营业务稳步开展，部分新业务增长强劲，营收规模屡创新高。与此同时，企业用工总量稳中有增。经统计，2021年7月到2022年3月中旬，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动、美团、拼多多、快手、百度、京东、网易、微博、哔哩哔哩、蚂蚁集团等12家企业总离职人数21.68万人，总招聘人数29.59万人，净增用工7.91万人，其中11家企业招聘人数多于离职人数。腾讯公司表示，得益于我国经济平稳增长，公司业务保持稳定增长态势，2021年营业收入同比增长16.2%。与此同时，人员规模不断扩大，截至2021年底，公司拥有11.28万名员工，同比增长31.3%。今年，还将持续引进核心科技人员和优秀应届毕业生，预计总员工人数仍会增加。美团公司反映，2021年公司营业收入同比增长56%。截至2021年底，美团交易用户数同比增长35.2%，活跃商家数同比增长29.2%。伴随业务的拓展，公司到店、到家、网约车、骑行等业务线和职能线人员，均有一定程度的增长。去年7月份以来，净增员工1.7万人，今年还将继续推进应届生招聘计划。业务不断优化调整，岗位人员增减有序多家企业从市场竞争、投入产出和长远发展等考虑，在做大做强主业的同时，对部分业务进行调整优化，相应岗位人员有减有增，但员工总人数保持稳中有升态势。微博公司介绍称，根据业务发展需要，近期公司对亏损业务进行减员优化，同时扩大与内容相关人员规模，保持其他板块人员稳定，预计今年总员工数量在去年基础上有所增加。京东集团因企业经营形势发生变化，选择聚焦主业，围绕供应链等业务，持续加大优秀人才招聘力度，对探索型业务作出一定调整，涉及部分员工，但集团员工数量总体保持稳定。北京字节跳动公司表示，去年下半年公司裁撤部分业务部门，对一些条线岗位进行优化调整，但同期，公司加大内容质量、技术、运营等方面人员的招聘力度，去年以来总员工数量还有所增加。聚焦科技创新，多举措培育培养人才面对疫情冲击、复杂外部形势和激烈行业竞争，部分企业主动应变，加大科技创新，招聘高层次人才，着力提升核心竞争力，同时采取多种措施，稳定现有员工队伍。受疫情和外部环境因素影响，百度集团对部分业务组织战略进行了调整，集中力量加大对智能云、芯片、自动驾驶的人员和技术投入，2021年相关领域研发投入221亿元。百度集团表示，目前公司在自动驾驶、智能交通、机器翻译、飞桨深度学习框架等关键技术领域取得显著优势，员工数量总体稳定。阿里巴巴集团表示，虽然外部环境变化，企业发展面临新的挑战，但集团主动拥抱变化进行业务调整，积极适应新环境，聚焦重点领域与客户价值，要用更有效的供给更好地服务平台用户。为吸引人才、留住人才，集团升级员工福利方案，设立交通补贴，试行灵活办公制度，核心业务近一年新增员工九千余人。蚂蚁集团持续在数字科技和全球化等方向发力，提供更加丰富的数字支付解决方案，并通过技术与模式创新，助力传统行业数字化转型。集团高度重视人才引进和培养，并采取多种措施，提高员工福利、强化人才技能培训、扩大人才发展空间，吸引和留住人才，用工人数总体稳定，略有增员。访谈中，多家企业表示，当前我国网信事业发展进入新的阶段，网信企业身逢盛世、前景壮阔，将抢抓发展机遇，坚定不移做大做强，同时积极履行社会责任，努力保持现有员工队伍稳定，着力为社会创造更多就业岗位。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3547635365309209","authorId":"3547635365309209","name":"Julio堂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61010cf4fad5ebcf13d5d07866c6ae93","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547635365309209","idStr":"3547635365309209"},"content":"我信他才怪，经济大环境这么差，尤其各大互联网被砍了这么多现有和未来业务发展，招那么多人干啥喝西北风吗。唯一有可能的没有说大面积裁员的是现在互联网招的外包特别多，估计被他们按正式员工一起参与统计了。而外包是不能算大厂新招的，他们隶属于出租人的母公司","text":"我信他才怪，经济大环境这么差，尤其各大互联网被砍了这么多现有和未来业务发展，招那么多人干啥喝西北风吗。唯一有可能的没有说大面积裁员的是现在互联网招的外包特别多，估计被他们按正式员工一起参与统计了。而外包是不能算大厂新招的，他们隶属于出租人的母公司","html":"我信他才怪，经济大环境这么差，尤其各大互联网被砍了这么多现有和未来业务发展，招那么多人干啥喝西北风吗。唯一有可能的没有说大面积裁员的是现在互联网招的外包特别多，估计被他们按正式员工一起参与统计了。而外包是不能算大厂新招的，他们隶属于出租人的母公司"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328262152,"gmtCreate":1615531493676,"gmtModify":1703490520483,"author":{"id":"3566344323710024","authorId":"3566344323710024","name":"网球宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35ef106bf0499e3d6a78b6494521c83","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566344323710024","idStr":"3566344323710024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81630991209b611e97ae8dc9370ac9dd\" tg-width=\"1005\" tg-height=\"554\"></p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅，接近44这个十分重要的水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ffcea60382b18a72bd9a358261c19e7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\"></p>\n<p>WTI原油跌到了34美元水平，为5月以来最低。</p>\n<p>总而言之，最关键也是最危险的一周，来了。</p>\n<p><b>最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程</b></p>\n<p>投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好，据说这利好民主党，共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。</p>\n<p>一些城市的街道严阵以待，商户用木板把店面封闭，以免在大选夜遭到破坏。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/381c9f9c314071ffd31c707af0b6b023\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"483\"></p>\n<p>投注网站PredictIt显示，拜登胜率为66%，高于一周前的62.9%；川普的胜率约为39%，也略高于一周前的37.1%。</p>\n<p>Real Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示，拜登的支持率为51.3%，川普为43.5%。</p>\n<p>我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4984869d65719b08166c56dc5e90d024\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"532\"></p>\n<p>从周末的民调看，佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。</p>\n<p>另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际，前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意，这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程，体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。</p>\n<p>宾州也是最重要的战场州之一，现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年，川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州，拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。</p>\n<p>但民调不可尽信，如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车，会发生什么？结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张，而拜登只能赢得259张。</p>\n<p><b>若真如此，那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱，因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27b9b60aeca4804936f45d0b8e5ef7e6\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"428\"></p>\n<p>刚刚过去的周末，还有一个重要的变化。</p>\n<p>CNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔，社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。</p>\n<p>CNN甚至发表了一篇社论称，川普值得第二个任期。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bcec13920b4b5843cac8e7170134cb13\" tg-width=\"807\" tg-height=\"534\"></p>\n<p>在这大选前的最后时刻，如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸，难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。</p>\n<p>再者，虽然这个事件来得比较晚，可能还不足以逆转选情，但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面，大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下，事件的影响也会很长久。</p>\n<p><b>做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备</b></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%，川普更断言，“大选日当晚不会出结果，要等好几周”。</p>\n<p>在一些最重要的“摇摆州”，混乱的前兆已经出现。</p>\n<p>宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票，有些郡出现大量选票遗失，<b>得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。</b></p>\n<p><b>整体而言，威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着，两位候选人的得票可能相当接近，从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。</b></p>\n<p>提醒一下：各个州验证结果，和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日（投票后35天），或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。</p>\n<p>根据目前已知的情况，<b>佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回，北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票，并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。</b></p>\n<p>因此，佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉，给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。</p>\n<p><b>例如，如果川普拿不下佛州，胜选的可能性就会小很多，市场会立即认为他已经输了。</b></p>\n<p>同样的，如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席，那么，市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。</p>\n<p>不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天，<b>如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近，那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。</b></p>\n<p><b>如何交易大选？</b></p>\n<p>首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。</p>\n<p>恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示，<b>未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。</b>按照经验，如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似，就应该降低风险敞口。</p>\n<p>相反，<b>如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似，那么即使VIX飙到44，你还是可以增加风险敞口。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2be4150424767aa43652dbd7a3ab9fb5\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"502\"></p>\n<p>至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑，我们可以通过下表直观了解：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a57dff41968ff729e6a97000c9b6ec5\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>大选结果对于各类资产的影响，在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。</p>\n<p>对美股而言，<b>无论川普还是拜登获胜，都是有利的</b>——前者有减税政策，后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。</p>\n<p>而美股上涨的幅度，则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。</p>\n<p>当然了，<b>最坏的结果是：选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%</b>——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者，美股可能跌入熊市。</p>\n<p>富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者：</p>\n<blockquote>\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡，如果结果不明，动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验，银行股最受伤。\n</blockquote>\n<p>同为风险资产，原油的前景就比美股惨多了。</p>\n<p>要是川普继续当选，当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变，美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续，油价应当获利上涨。</p>\n<p>但要是拜登上台，<b>无论民主党能否控制参议院，新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划，油价必遭重创。</b></p>\n<p>美元和黄金，预计不会展现出明显负相关性。</p>\n<p>一方面，虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满，但大选结果对美元汇率的影响，和美股一样，<b>更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩，而不是总统的个人意志。</b></p>\n<p>如果拜登当选且拿下参议院，超大规模刺激法案出炉，对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反，川普连任，两党分裂延续，美元便会得到喘息之机。</p>\n<p>另一方面，<b>要是大选结果出现争议，黄金和加密货币会受益。</b>因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡，还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e5c2329872d8d675ac92f4a7a15d5c9\" tg-width=\"1064\" tg-height=\"412\"></p>\n<p>总结下来，美股的大选交易逻辑就是：<b>国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果，因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。</b></p>\n<p>美股最担心的是，拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院，或者川普胜出，因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。</p>","source":"lsy1572248118994","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>做好准备，本周有暴跌20%的风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n做好准备，本周有暴跌20%的风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-02 19:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA><strong>最贪婪的交易员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，是1987年（-10.9%）以来同期最差的表现，也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区，较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e092e4cceb42b6f10c3f508ff5e2078","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DhUI5Lk2vp5ImKgU4GkEeA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120240427","content_text":"美国大选投票日前夕，我们见证了一场大清仓，股市、债券、比特币、原油集体被抛售。\n股市遭受了3月以来最悲惨的一周。\n美股三大股指跌幅在6-7%之间，创7个月以来最大周跌幅，十月下旬标普500就跌了5%，是1987年（-10.9%）以来同期最差的表现，也创下了大选前一周最差纪录。\n\n道指和纳指都已经进入回调区，较近期高位下跌了10%或更多。各股指现在都来到了关键的技术位。\n\n恐慌指数VIX创3月以来最大涨幅，接近44这个十分重要的水平。\n\nWTI原油跌到了34美元水平，为5月以来最低。\n总而言之，最关键也是最危险的一周，来了。\n最新选情与最后一天的竞选日程\n投票日当天美国大部分地区的天气都非常好，据说这利好民主党，共和党人更应该祈祷恶劣天气。\n一些城市的街道严阵以待，商户用木板把店面封闭，以免在大选夜遭到破坏。\n\n投注网站PredictIt显示，拜登胜率为66%，高于一周前的62.9%；川普的胜率约为39%，也略高于一周前的37.1%。\nReal Clear Politics汇总的全美民调显示，拜登的支持率为51.3%，川普为43.5%。\n我们关键还是要看几个 “摇摆州”。\n\n从周末的民调看，佛州在大选当晚胜负难料。拜登在该州对川普的领先优势不足2个百分点。\n另一个选情激烈的州是俄亥俄州。拜登周一还将在距离投票不足24小时之际，前往俄亥俄州克利夫兰竞选。注意，这是拜登团队新增的竞选行程，体现出他们在俄亥俄州看到了彻底打垮对手的契机。\n宾州也是最重要的战场州之一，现拜登大约领先6个百分点。2016年，川普在这个关键州以0.7%的优势获胜。即使川普守住俄亥俄、得州和佛州，拜登如在宾州取胜将大大增加他最终入主白宫的几率。\n但民调不可尽信，如果这次的民调也跟2016年那般翻车，会发生什么？结果就是川普会赢得538张选举人票中的279张，而拜登只能赢得259张。\n若真如此，那将是美国民调行业的奇耻大辱，因为它们从头到尾不曾认为川普有赢得干脆利落的可能性。\n\n刚刚过去的周末，还有一个重要的变化。\nCNN、ABC、NBC等一些美国媒体突然愿意对拜登家族的腐败问题开腔，社交媒体Twitter也解封了最先揭发拜登丑闻的纽约邮报的账号。\nCNN甚至发表了一篇社论称，川普值得第二个任期。\n\n在这大选前的最后时刻，如果媒体对拜登问题狂轰滥炸，难免会影响那些在11月3日全凭情绪去投票的选民。\n再者，虽然这个事件来得比较晚，可能还不足以逆转选情，但如果投票过后更多实锤证据浮出水面，大选过后的混乱局面将超乎想象。尤其是在拜登胜出的局面下，事件的影响也会很长久。\n做好大选结果推迟出炉的准备\n摩根士丹利认为选举夜无结果的可能性高达65%，川普更断言，“大选日当晚不会出结果，要等好几周”。\n在一些最重要的“摇摆州”，混乱的前兆已经出现。\n宾州7个郡表示无能力在大选日统计邮寄选票，有些郡出现大量选票遗失，得州哈里斯郡有12.7万张选票也面临着作废风险。\n整体而言，威斯康星州、乔治亚州、宾州、佛州的情况都会很胶着，两位候选人的得票可能相当接近，从而引发争执导致重新计票或结果延迟公布。\n提醒一下：各个州验证结果，和确定选举人的最后期限是12月8日（投票后35天），或者12月14日选举人团集合之时。\n根据目前已知的情况，佛州65%的邮寄选票已经交回，北卡州56%已经交回。这两个州都可以提前计票，并称在投票站关闭后能快速公布计票结果。\n因此，佛州和北卡州的结果将很快出炉，给了市场在投票当晚猜测大选结果的机会。\n例如，如果川普拿不下佛州，胜选的可能性就会小很多，市场会立即认为他已经输了。\n同样的，如果民主党候选人Cal Cunningham赢得北卡州参议院一席，那么，市场会认为民主党人已经掌控参议院。\n不过更靠谱的做法还是先等几天，如果川普能在佛州胜出或者票数与拜登接近，那么最终结果将取决于计票较慢的密歇根州、威斯康辛州和宾州。\n如何交易大选？\n首先要看市场给我们发出的信号。\n恐慌指数VIX的走势暗示，未来几天的波动性可能高得可怕。按照经验，如果你认为现在的情况与2008-09年类似，就应该降低风险敞口。\n相反，如果你认为现在的情况跟2020年4月更相似，那么即使VIX飙到44，你还是可以增加风险敞口。\n\n至于此次大选各大市场的交易逻辑，我们可以通过下表直观了解：\n\n大选结果对于各类资产的影响，在贪叔看来已经是非常明显的了。\n对美股而言，无论川普还是拜登获胜，都是有利的——前者有减税政策，后者有憧憬中的超大规模刺激法案。\n而美股上涨的幅度，则取决于参议院最终花落谁家。\n当然了，最坏的结果是：选举结果有争议。那么美股可能暴跌20%——也就是说如果周三后选举没有明确的获胜者，美股可能跌入熊市。\n富国银行就在一份最新报告中提醒投资者：\n\n 11月4日的市场会非常动荡，如果结果不明，动荡会持续更长时间。根据2000年的经验，银行股最受伤。\n\n同为风险资产，原油的前景就比美股惨多了。\n要是川普继续当选，当前能源政策就不会发生太大改变，美国对委内瑞拉、伊朗的制裁也会继续，油价应当获利上涨。\n但要是拜登上台，无论民主党能否控制参议院，新总统都会推行他的清洁能源计划，油价必遭重创。\n美元和黄金，预计不会展现出明显负相关性。\n一方面，虽然川普任内一直对美元过于强势表示不满，但大选结果对美元汇率的影响，和美股一样，更大程度上和刺激法案挂钩，而不是总统的个人意志。\n如果拜登当选且拿下参议院，超大规模刺激法案出炉，对美元来说是最糟糕的结果。相反，川普连任，两党分裂延续，美元便会得到喘息之机。\n另一方面，要是大选结果出现争议，黄金和加密货币会受益。因为有争议的选举不仅会带来市场动荡，还会破坏人们对政府和法定货币的信心。\n\n总结下来，美股的大选交易逻辑就是：国会能由同一政党把控就是市场波动最小的结果，因为这样下来通过刺激法案的阻力会小很多。\n美股最担心的是，拜登胜出但无法拿下参议院，或者川普胜出，因为这样国会会延续分裂局面。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":386855740,"gmtCreate":1613154095680,"gmtModify":1613154095680,"author":{"id":"3566344323710024","authorId":"3566344323710024","name":"网球宝宝","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f35ef106bf0499e3d6a78b6494521c83","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566344323710024","authorIdStr":"3566344323710024"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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