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0勋章

2021-12-23

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@小虎说英股:欧天然气价格因俄管道反向运作暴涨俄政府否认有政治动机

2021-12-23

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Cocrystal Pharma shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote>

2021-12-20

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2021-12-18

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@大风大浪:$蔚来(NIO)$不至于啊，这么好的加仓机会。现在是整个中概股在跌，不是个股。我一直在加仓！

2021-12-17

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@小虎活动:《2021投资大复盘》看看一年赚出一套房的虎友心得

2021-12-07

[Like]

@小虎说英股:WISE财报好好：股价涨了11%

2021-12-01

[强]

@Maxlim0510:$Digital Turbine(APPS)$Ok

2021-11-15

0.00 [开心] [开心] [开心]

2021-09-27

[强] [强] [强]

@核桃:这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

2021-09-01

[强] [强]

@koolgal:Apple has been on an uptrend lately. Is it time to buy more? 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙🎉🎊🎉

2021-08-30

[强]

@glorify:BABA keep going! Hope it will rally & violate ! Never fear & be Steady! 👍💪👌🚀🚀🚀🚀

2021-08-02

[强]

Amazon’s Cryptocurrency Plan Could Be a Game Changer<blockquote>亚马逊的加密货币计划可能会改变游戏规则</blockquote>

2021-07-14

[强]

@YG_TAN666:$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$task

2021-06-22

[666] [强] //@newwen: Comment me pls

Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In "Heat-Seeking Missiles": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>

2021-06-20

[开心] [流泪]

3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>

2021-06-19

[微笑]

ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>

2021-06-17

[强]

Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote>

2021-06-16

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-15

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-14

[强]

抱歉，原内容已删除

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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691273549","repostId":"691858636","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":691858636,"gmtCreate":1640171630413,"gmtModify":1640216454967,"author":{"id":"3528966054893519","authorId":"3528966054893519","name":"小虎说英股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444754ad4cb8cbfaf0dcb4fb2537c79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3528966054893519","authorIdStr":"3528966054893519"},"themes":[],"title":"欧天然气价格因俄管道反向运作暴涨 俄政府否认有政治动机","htmlText":"本文章是财新发的文章关于世界最大天然气公司：俄罗斯的<a target=\"_blank\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OGZD.UK\">$俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）(OGZD.UK)$</a>&nbsp;[得意]&nbsp;今年迄今GAZPROM的股价涨了66%[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;公司也支付不错的股息啊。请大家记住了GAZPROM的股票是存托凭证，所以它以美金计价和支付股息。公司用卢布报道财务细节[正经]&nbsp;Gazprom12月21日发布声明称，该公司完全遵守当前合同义务，克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫则称当前事态“完全是一种商业情况”。他否认事态与“北溪2号”管道当前在德国遇到的审批阻碍有关GAZPROM的基础设施挺大的啊北京时间12月21日20点左右，天然气一月期货价格突破2000美元大关，至23时30分前后一度突破2150美元/千立方米。过去半年内强势上涨的欧洲天然气价格在12月21日再次刷新历史记录。北京时间12月21日20点左右，天然气一月期货价格突破2000美元大关，至23时30分前后一度突破2150美元/千立方米。这是天然气价格自今年10月6日刷新历史高点后首次再创新高，也是欧洲天然气连续第二天出现强势上涨。这次上涨与俄罗斯亚马尔天然气管道的反向运作有关。这次上涨与俄罗斯亚马尔天然气管道的反向运作有关。该管道自俄罗斯亚马尔气田向欧洲输送天然气，是俄罗斯向西供气的主要管线之一。该管道除了由东向西，从俄罗斯经波兰向西供应德国，还有可能反向运作，将天然气从德国输往波兰。12月18日开始，德国管道运营商Gascade的数据显示，亚马尔-欧洲管道从俄罗斯方向朝德国输送的天然气大幅下降，这给本已紧张的欧洲天然气市场带来了压力。此后几天，亚马尔-欧洲管道向德国的输气量持续下降，造成欧洲天然气","text":"本文章是财新发的文章关于世界最大天然气公司：俄罗斯的$俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司（Gazprom）(OGZD.UK)$ [得意] 今年迄今GAZPROM的股价涨了66%[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] 公司也支付不错的股息啊。请大家记住了GAZPROM的股票是存托凭证，所以它以美金计价和支付股息。公司用卢布报道财务细节[正经] Gazprom12月21日发布声明称，该公司完全遵守当前合同义务，克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫则称当前事态“完全是一种商业情况”。他否认事态与“北溪2号”管道当前在德国遇到的审批阻碍有关GAZPROM的基础设施挺大的啊北京时间12月21日20点左右，天然气一月期货价格突破2000美元大关，至23时30分前后一度突破2150美元/千立方米。过去半年内强势上涨的欧洲天然气价格在12月21日再次刷新历史记录。北京时间12月21日20点左右，天然气一月期货价格突破2000美元大关，至23时30分前后一度突破2150美元/千立方米。这是天然气价格自今年10月6日刷新历史高点后首次再创新高，也是欧洲天然气连续第二天出现强势上涨。这次上涨与俄罗斯亚马尔天然气管道的反向运作有关。这次上涨与俄罗斯亚马尔天然气管道的反向运作有关。该管道自俄罗斯亚马尔气田向欧洲输送天然气，是俄罗斯向西供气的主要管线之一。该管道除了由东向西，从俄罗斯经波兰向西供应德国，还有可能反向运作，将天然气从德国输往波兰。12月18日开始，德国管道运营商Gascade的数据显示，亚马尔-欧洲管道从俄罗斯方向朝德国输送的天然气大幅下降，这给本已紧张的欧洲天然气市场带来了压力。此后几天，亚马尔-欧洲管道向德国的输气量持续下降，造成欧洲天然气","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1763db15c9815bdea9345b221f4a02e","width":"688","height":"474"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691858636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691279519,"gmtCreate":1640216359084,"gmtModify":1640216361693,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691279519","repostId":"1162556937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162556937","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640178634,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162556937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 21:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cocrystal Pharma shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162556937","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Cocrystal Pharma shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading.\nCocrystal Pharma, Inc. announces t","content":"<p>Cocrystal&nbsp;Pharma&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surged&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;9%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/870487e02f7b05efc76a12650bd3de5f\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. announces that in vitro studies demonstrate its oral and intranasal/pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibitors exhibit antiviral potency against the Omicron variant. The Company earlier confirmed that its protease inhibitors demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 and all major previously identified variants including Delta, Alpha, Beta and Gamma. Cocrystal expects to initiate Phase 1 clinical studies with its COVID-19 intranasal/pulmonary protease inhibitor CDI-45205 and an oral COVID-19 protease inhibitor as rapidly as possible.</p><p><blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma，Inc.宣布，体外研究表明，其口服和鼻内/肺新型冠状病毒主要蛋白酶抑制剂对奥密克戎病毒变异体具有抗病毒效力。该公司早些时候证实，其蛋白酶抑制剂对新型冠状病毒病毒和所有先前确定的主要变异体（包括Delta、Alpha、Beta和Gamma）表现出广谱抗病毒活性。Cocrystal预计将尽快启动其COVID-19鼻内/肺蛋白酶抑制剂CDI-45205和口服COVID-19蛋白酶抑制剂的1期临床研究。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cocrystal Pharma shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCocrystal Pharma shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading<blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-22 21:10</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cocrystal&nbsp;Pharma&nbsp;shares&nbsp;surged&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;9%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma股价在盘前交易中飙升超过9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/870487e02f7b05efc76a12650bd3de5f\" tg-width=\"730\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. announces that in vitro studies demonstrate its oral and intranasal/pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibitors exhibit antiviral potency against the Omicron variant. The Company earlier confirmed that its protease inhibitors demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 and all major previously identified variants including Delta, Alpha, Beta and Gamma. Cocrystal expects to initiate Phase 1 clinical studies with its COVID-19 intranasal/pulmonary protease inhibitor CDI-45205 and an oral COVID-19 protease inhibitor as rapidly as possible.</p><p><blockquote>Cocrystal Pharma，Inc.宣布，体外研究表明，其口服和鼻内/肺新型冠状病毒主要蛋白酶抑制剂对奥密克戎病毒变异体具有抗病毒效力。该公司早些时候证实，其蛋白酶抑制剂对新型冠状病毒病毒和所有先前确定的主要变异体（包括Delta、Alpha、Beta和Gamma）表现出广谱抗病毒活性。Cocrystal预计将尽快启动其COVID-19鼻内/肺蛋白酶抑制剂CDI-45205和口服COVID-19蛋白酶抑制剂的1期临床研究。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COCP":"Cocrystal Pharma, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162556937","content_text":"Cocrystal Pharma shares surged more than 9% in premarket trading.\nCocrystal Pharma, Inc. announces that in vitro studies demonstrate its oral and intranasal/pulmonary SARS-CoV-2 main protease inhibitors exhibit antiviral potency against the Omicron variant. The Company earlier confirmed that its protease inhibitors demonstrated broad-spectrum antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2 and all major previously identified variants including Delta, Alpha, Beta and Gamma. Cocrystal expects to initiate Phase 1 clinical studies with its COVID-19 intranasal/pulmonary protease inhibitor CDI-45205 and an oral COVID-19 protease inhibitor as rapidly as possible.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"COCP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2797,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693820051,"gmtCreate":1640003465745,"gmtModify":1640003468305,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693820051","repostId":"1160299527","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699589157,"gmtCreate":1639839061904,"gmtModify":1639839064378,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699589157","repostId":"607731613","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":607731613,"gmtCreate":1639585815453,"gmtModify":1639586757978,"author":{"id":"233188933891324","authorId":"233188933891324","name":"大风大浪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231e55d49ffb5f80d452bd37618064b1","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"233188933891324","authorIdStr":"233188933891324"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>不至于啊，这么好的加仓机会。现在是整个中概股在跌，不是个股。我一直在加仓！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>不至于啊，这么好的加仓机会。现在是整个中概股在跌，不是个股。我一直在加仓！","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$不至于啊，这么好的加仓机会。现在是整个中概股在跌，不是个股。我一直在加仓！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bfea7c79d8f08b9d3a4dfb3f200cfca","width":"1284","height":"2778"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607731613","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2842,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699003181,"gmtCreate":1639716200187,"gmtModify":1639716202722,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699003181","repostId":"605692832","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":605692832,"gmtCreate":1639149887922,"gmtModify":1744960769438,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"《2021投资大复盘》看看一年赚出一套房的虎友心得","htmlText":"分享2021年投资复盘，有机会赢取iPhone手机、苹果股票、半年度免佣卡，以及虎友们最最最喜欢的限量款台历。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的年终总结，看着大家分享过去一年的交易心得，小虎真的炒鸡开心。小虎君从中选出了十篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/608567387\" target=\"_blank\">一年亏200W美金，我悟出了这些道理</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3571292989058983\">@小韭儿</a> 十年美股交易，辛辛苦苦挣的本金，在这几个月学习期权交易中，彻底从头再来。人生就是这样，起起落落落落，一起过往皆是勋章。这几个月以来，期权对我来说就是现实版的老虎机。这些不过是游戏币而已。学习一门技艺，学费还是要交的，只不过这次学费确实贵了点... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/606528443\" target=\"_blank\">菜鸟的2021年美股总结——虽然我也不知道盈亏率如何碾压95%的美股er</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527841556972543\">@开飞机的贝塔</a> 又到了12月，这一年即将过去。偷偷查了一下资产报告，套利69%，比较满意了。预期是40%~50%，超预期其实是很开心的一件事。2020年，亏损了很多，很多。具体多少我不想写，总之就是很多。现在回想一下感觉自己真的很蠢：痛定思痛，最近一年才用稳扎稳打的操作，加上偶尔耍一些小聪明，做一点日内换手。总算不负预期。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/602787709\" target=\"_blank\">【</a>","listText":"分享2021年投资复盘，有机会赢取iPhone手机、苹果股票、半年度免佣卡，以及虎友们最最最喜欢的限量款台历。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的年终总结，看着大家分享过去一年的交易心得，小虎真的炒鸡开心。小虎君从中选出了十篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/608567387\" target=\"_blank\">一年亏200W美金，我悟出了这些道理</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3571292989058983\">@小韭儿</a> 十年美股交易，辛辛苦苦挣的本金，在这几个月学习期权交易中，彻底从头再来。人生就是这样，起起落落落落，一起过往皆是勋章。这几个月以来，期权对我来说就是现实版的老虎机。这些不过是游戏币而已。学习一门技艺，学费还是要交的，只不过这次学费确实贵了点... <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/606528443\" target=\"_blank\">菜鸟的2021年美股总结——虽然我也不知道盈亏率如何碾压95%的美股er</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527841556972543\">@开飞机的贝塔</a> 又到了12月，这一年即将过去。偷偷查了一下资产报告，套利69%，比较满意了。预期是40%~50%，超预期其实是很开心的一件事。2020年，亏损了很多，很多。具体多少我不想写，总之就是很多。现在回想一下感觉自己真的很蠢：痛定思痛，最近一年才用稳扎稳打的操作，加上偶尔耍一些小聪明，做一点日内换手。总算不负预期。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/602787709\" target=\"_blank\">【</a>","text":"分享2021年投资复盘，有机会赢取iPhone手机、苹果股票、半年度免佣卡，以及虎友们最最最喜欢的限量款台历。这周我们收到了很多很多虎友撰写的年终总结，看着大家分享过去一年的交易心得，小虎真的炒鸡开心。小虎君从中选出了十篇优质的内容，下面就让我们一起欣赏一下吧： 一年亏200W美金，我悟出了这些道理 @小韭儿 十年美股交易，辛辛苦苦挣的本金，在这几个月学习期权交易中，彻底从头再来。人生就是这样，起起落落落落，一起过往皆是勋章。这几个月以来，期权对我来说就是现实版的老虎机。这些不过是游戏币而已。学习一门技艺，学费还是要交的，只不过这次学费确实贵了点... 菜鸟的2021年美股总结——虽然我也不知道盈亏率如何碾压95%的美股er @开飞机的贝塔 又到了12月，这一年即将过去。偷偷查了一下资产报告，套利69%，比较满意了。预期是40%~50%，超预期其实是很开心的一件事。2020年，亏损了很多，很多。具体多少我不想写，总之就是很多。现在回想一下感觉自己真的很蠢：痛定思痛，最近一年才用稳扎稳打的操作，加上偶尔耍一些小聪明，做一点日内换手。总算不负预期。 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The new position will be part of the team responsible for how Amazon’s customers pay on its platforms.</p><p><blockquote>该公司“数字货币和区块链产品负责人”的职位空缺广告引发了人们对这家科技巨头可能计划的广泛猜测。新职位将成为负责亚马逊客户如何在其平台上支付的团队的一员。</blockquote></p><p> The possibility of Amazon accepting cryptocurrency payments—by the end of the year,according to some reports—saw Bitcoin surge to six-week highs just below $40,000. There’s even the suggestion the internet behemoth could be developing its own coin and may also accept alternatives such as Ethereum.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些报道，亚马逊接受加密货币支付的可能性——到今年年底——导致比特币飙升至略低于4万美元的六周高点。甚至有迹象表明，这家互联网巨头可能正在开发自己的代币，也可能接受以太币等替代品。</blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrencies face a fight over their role in society, their use, and ultimately their value. Acceptance by a company as big as Amazon will only help their case. It’s a bold move from Amazon, and how the company deals with the famed volatility of cryptocurrencies will be fascinating to see.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币面临着一场关于其在社会中的角色、用途以及最终价值的斗争。被亚马逊这样大的公司接受只会有助于他们的案子。这是亚马逊的一个大胆举措，该公司如何应对著名的加密货币波动性将令人着迷。</blockquote></p><p> Investors may not need to wait long for answers. Amazon&nbsp;reports earnings on Thursday&nbsp;and executives will surely face a volley of questions on the matter.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能不需要等待太久就能得到答案。亚马逊将于周四公布财报，高管们肯定会就此问题面临一系列问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon’s Cryptocurrency Plan Could Be a Game Changer<blockquote>亚马逊的加密货币计划可能会改变游戏规则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon’s Cryptocurrency Plan Could Be a Game Changer<blockquote>亚马逊的加密货币计划可能会改变游戏规则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 21:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have fallen on hard times recently, but the sector may have found its hero in the form of Amazon.</p><p><blockquote>比特币和其他加密货币最近陷入困境，但该行业可能已经找到了亚马逊的英雄。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s job vacancy advertising for a “digital currency and blockchain product lead” has sparked rampant speculation over what the tech giant might have planned. The new position will be part of the team responsible for how Amazon’s customers pay on its platforms.</p><p><blockquote>该公司“数字货币和区块链产品负责人”的职位空缺广告引发了人们对这家科技巨头可能计划的广泛猜测。新职位将成为负责亚马逊客户如何在其平台上支付的团队的一员。</blockquote></p><p> The possibility of Amazon accepting cryptocurrency payments—by the end of the year,according to some reports—saw Bitcoin surge to six-week highs just below $40,000. There’s even the suggestion the internet behemoth could be developing its own coin and may also accept alternatives such as Ethereum.</p><p><blockquote>根据一些报道，亚马逊接受加密货币支付的可能性——到今年年底——导致比特币飙升至略低于4万美元的六周高点。甚至有迹象表明，这家互联网巨头可能正在开发自己的代币，也可能接受以太币等替代品。</blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrencies face a fight over their role in society, their use, and ultimately their value. Acceptance by a company as big as Amazon will only help their case. It’s a bold move from Amazon, and how the company deals with the famed volatility of cryptocurrencies will be fascinating to see.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币面临着一场关于其在社会中的角色、用途以及最终价值的斗争。被亚马逊这样大的公司接受只会有助于他们的案子。这是亚马逊的一个大胆举措，该公司如何应对著名的加密货币波动性将令人着迷。</blockquote></p><p> Investors may not need to wait long for answers. Amazon&nbsp;reports earnings on Thursday&nbsp;and executives will surely face a volley of questions on the matter.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可能不需要等待太久就能得到答案。亚马逊将于周四公布财报，高管们肯定会就此问题面临一系列问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/things-to-know-today-51627294089?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/things-to-know-today-51627294089?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144558005","content_text":"Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have fallen on hard times recently, but the sector may have found its hero in the form of Amazon.\nThe company’s job vacancy advertising for a “digital currency and blockchain product lead” has sparked rampant speculation over what the tech giant might have planned. The new position will be part of the team responsible for how Amazon’s customers pay on its platforms.\nThe possibility of Amazon accepting cryptocurrency payments—by the end of the year,according to some reports—saw Bitcoin surge to six-week highs just below $40,000. There’s even the suggestion the internet behemoth could be developing its own coin and may also accept alternatives such as Ethereum.\nCryptocurrencies face a fight over their role in society, their use, and ultimately their value. Acceptance by a company as big as Amazon will only help their case. It’s a bold move from Amazon, and how the company deals with the famed volatility of cryptocurrencies will be fascinating to see.\nInvestors may not need to wait long for answers. Amazon reports earnings on Thursday and executives will surely face a volley of questions on the matter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XBTmain":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"MBTmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145209748,"gmtCreate":1626223792884,"gmtModify":1631887094105,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145209748","repostId":"146181500","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":146181500,"gmtCreate":1626059085700,"gmtModify":1631887059675,"author":{"id":"3576986058315907","authorId":"3576986058315907","name":"YG_TAN666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b21dfa6486c96b941ddc55093dfccd2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576986058315907","authorIdStr":"3576986058315907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>task","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>task","text":"$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$task","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e8db0ca6b329a608cdfecb3cc38558","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146181500","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":120174236,"gmtCreate":1624317560925,"gmtModify":1631887094118,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[666]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577937302028167\">@newwen</a>: Comment me pls","listText":"[666]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577937302028167\">@newwen</a>: Comment me pls","text":"[666] [强] //@newwen: Comment me pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120174236","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165244715,"gmtCreate":1624149268637,"gmtModify":1631887094130,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165244715","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"SNDL":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162802870,"gmtCreate":1624053525690,"gmtModify":1631887094154,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162802870","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163870647,"gmtCreate":1623878732289,"gmtModify":1631887094165,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163870647","repostId":"1170150919","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170150919","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623866564,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170150919?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-17 02:02","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170150919","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and finan","content":"<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周三跌至盘中低点，此前美联储上调了通胀预期，并提前了下次加息的时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>11个标普500板块中有9个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重新开放为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、联合航空和达美航空均走高。在Wolfe Research上调评级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华股价均上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在2023年加息，此前该委员会在3月份表示至少在2024年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续称通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。等。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀加剧，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>周三在参议院财政委员会作证的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，从长远来看，更高的价格压力不应持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦表示：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，但我预计这种影响不会是永久性的。”“但我们将继续非常仔细地监测通胀数据，对于长期通胀前景来说，重要的是，我们认为从大多数指标来看，通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.<blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-17 02:02</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.</p><p><blockquote>美联储维持利率稳定，但大幅上调通胀预期，且未提及taper。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周三跌至盘中低点，此前美联储上调了通胀预期，并提前了下次加息的时间框架。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&amp;P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌320点。标普500在前一交易日创下历史新高后下跌0.7%。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数抹去了早些时候的涨幅，下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Nine out of 11 S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.</p><p><blockquote>11个标普500板块中有9个出现亏损，其中通信服务和金融板块领跌。</blockquote></p><p> Economic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>经济重新开放为大盘提供了一些支撑。主要航空股美国航空、联合航空和达美航空均走高。在Wolfe Research上调评级后，皇家加勒比和嘉年华股价均上涨2%。</blockquote></p><p> The policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.</p><p><blockquote>制定政策的联邦公开市场委员会表示，最早可能在2023年加息，此前该委员会在3月份表示至少在2024年之前不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"</p><p><blockquote>美联储还将总体通胀预期上调至3.4%，比3月份的预测高出整整一个百分点，会后声明继续称通胀压力是“暂时的”。</blockquote></p><p> Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.</p><p><blockquote>主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。等。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀加剧，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.</p><p><blockquote>周三在参议院财政委员会作证的财政部长珍妮特·耶伦表示，从长远来看，更高的价格压力不应持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> \"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"</p><p><blockquote>耶伦表示：“我之前说过，我看到了重要的暂时影响，但我预计这种影响不会是永久性的。”“但我们将继续非常仔细地监测通胀数据，对于长期通胀前景来说，重要的是，我们认为从大多数指标来看，通胀预期……都是稳固的。”</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170150919","content_text":"Fed holds rates steady, but raises inflation expectations sharply and makes no mention of taper.\nU.S. stocks dropped to their session lows on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations and moved up the time frame on when it will hike interest rates next.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 320 points. The S&P 500 traded 0.7% lower after hitting an all-time high in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite erased earlier gains and traded 0.5% lower.\nNine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors traded in the red, led to the downside by communication services and financials.\nEconomic reopening plays provided the broader market with some support. Major airline stocks American Airlines, United and Delta all traded higher. Royal Caribbean and Carnival both climbed 2% afteran upgrade from Wolfe Research.\nThe policymaking Federal Open Market Committee indicated that rate hikes could come as soon as 2023, after indicating in March that it saw no increases until at least 2024.\nThe Fed also raised its headline inflation expectation to 3.4%, a full percentage point higher than the March projection, the post-meeting statement continued to say that inflation pressures are \"transitory.\"\nChairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.\nThe meeting came as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.\nThe central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.\n\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"\nTreasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who is testifying before the Senate Finance Committee Wednesday, said higher price pressures shouldn't last over the long run.\n\"I previously said that I see important transitory influences at work and I don't anticipate that it will be permanent,\" Yellen said. \"But we continue to monitor inflation data very carefully, and importantly for the long run inflation outlook we see inflation expectations by most measures … as being well-anchored.\"\nOn Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160693205,"gmtCreate":1623792098207,"gmtModify":1631887094177,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160693205","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":184819043,"gmtCreate":1623704824082,"gmtModify":1631887094192,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184819043","repostId":"2143784913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":185873075,"gmtCreate":1623643799897,"gmtModify":1634030731225,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3563518698255751","authorIdStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185873075","repostId":"1132051258","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":160693205,"gmtCreate":1623792098207,"gmtModify":1631887094177,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160693205","repostId":"1146386859","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":165244715,"gmtCreate":1624149268637,"gmtModify":1631887094130,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165244715","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"SNDL":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":357724692,"gmtCreate":1617311928716,"gmtModify":1634521513892,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357724692","repostId":"1195370915","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195370915","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617286422,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195370915?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-01 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in April<blockquote>4月份Robinhood前50只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195370915","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Millennial investors can't resist the urge to buy into these stocks.For a majority of investors, vol","content":"<p>Millennial investors can't resist the urge to buy into these stocks.For a majority of investors, volatility isn't something they look forward to. Then again, millennials aren't like a majority of investors.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代投资者无法抗拒买入这些股票的冲动。对于大多数投资者来说，波动不是他们所期待的。话又说回来，千禧一代不像大多数投资者。</blockquote></p><p>In the wake of historic volatility over the past year and change, we've watched young and/or novice investors flock to the market like never before. If you need proof, just take a gander at what's happening over at Robinhood.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年的历史性波动和变化之后，我们看到年轻和/或新手投资者前所未有地涌向市场。如果你需要证据，看看罗宾汉发生了什么。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b3853458b2424e2901821012f5502f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Robinhood investors can't get enough of these 50 stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Robinhood投资者对这50只股票百看不厌</b></blockquote></p><p>Online investing app Robinhood, which is well-known for its commission-free trades, fractional-share investing, and gifting of free stock to new users, gained approximately 3 million new users last year. The interesting thing is that the average age of Robinhood's user base is only 31.</p><p><blockquote>在线投资应用Robinhood以其免佣金交易、部分股票投资和向新用户赠送免费股票而闻名，去年获得了约300万新用户。有意思的是，Robinhood用户群的平均年龄只有31岁。</blockquote></p><p>On one hand, seeing young people put their money to work in the world's greatest wealth creator is a happy sight. Since 1980, the average annual total return (i.e., including dividends) of the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>is over 10%. This is to say that the typical investor in an S&amp;P 500 index fund is doubling their money with dividend reinvestment every seven years.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，看到年轻人把钱投入到世界上最大的财富创造者身上是一种幸福的景象。自一九八零年起，本集团之平均年度总回报（即包括股息）<b>标普500</b>超过10%。也就是说，标普500指数基金的典型投资者每七年通过股息再投资将资金翻一番。</blockquote></p><p>But the other side of this coin is that young Robinhood investors are rarely thinking about the long term. The most-held stocks on the platform (known asRobinhood's leaderboard) tend to be a combination of penny stocks, momentum plays, and whatever companies happen to be making news within a given week or month.</p><p><blockquote>但硬币的另一面是，年轻的罗宾汉投资者很少考虑长期问题。该平台上持有最多的股票（称为Robinhood的排行榜）往往是细价股、动量股以及任何在特定一周或一个月内碰巧制造新闻的公司的组合。</blockquote></p><p>If you don't believe me, take a look at the top 50 stocks on Robinhood's leaderboard as we enter April.</p><p><blockquote>如果您不相信我，请查看进入4月份Robinhood排行榜上排名前50的股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4966ee220f5e18be9c4f617bc27a7be0\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ba6e34aa3bf02cbe39aed01f0a7022\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Retail investors' meme game is strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>散户投资者的模因游戏很强</b></blockquote></p><p>If there's one thing that stands out from this list, it's that young Robinhood investors have faith in some highly questionable \"meme stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>如果有一件事从这份名单中脱颖而出，那就是年轻的Robinhood投资者对一些非常可疑的“模因股票”充满信心。</blockquote></p><p>Without getting too far into the weeds, the meme stocks gained fame on community chat service Reddit. For the better part of 2 1/2 months, retail investors have been working together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options in heavily short-sold stocks, with the sole purpose of effecting ashort squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>在没有深入杂草的情况下，模因股票在社区聊天服务Reddit上声名鹊起。在两个半月的大部分时间里，散户投资者一直在共同努力购买大量卖空股票的股票和价外看涨期权期权，唯一目的是实现轧空。</blockquote></p><p>Since institutional investors and hedge funds hold the vast majority of shares held short, this meme movement has been pitched as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\" Examples of highly popular meme stocks include AMC Entertainment, Sundial Growers, GameStop, and Zomedica.</p><p><blockquote>由于机构投资者和对冲基金持有绝大多数空头股票，这场模因运动被定位为散户投资者和“大资金”之间的战斗。非常受欢迎的模因股票的例子包括AMC院线、Sundial Growers、游戏驿站和Zomedica。</blockquote></p><p>The concern is that most meme stocks have wildly detached from their underlying fundamentals. Even though euphoria and emotion drive share-price movements in the short term, operating results determine where a stock heads over the long run. In the case of the aforementioned meme stocks:</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，大多数模因股票都严重脱离了其基本面。尽管兴奋和情绪在短期内推动股价走势，但经营业绩决定了股票的长期走势。就上述模因股票而言：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>AMC Entertainment is being crippled by debt and the ongoing pandemic. It'sunclear if the company can service its debtor cover projected losses over the next two years.</li><li>Sundial Growers has drowned its investorsby issuing 1.15 billion new sharessince Sept. 30. It's one of the slowest-growing marijuana stocks, and could also be one of the last pot stocks to turn profitable on a recurring basis.</li><li>GameStop waited far too long to shift away from a brick-and-mortar retail model to focus on digital gaming. Now it's scurrying to close stores, just to cut its expenses.</li><li>Zomedica just launched its first diagnostics system for cats and dogs but is valued at close to 80 times Wall Street's projected sales for 2023.</li></ul>Retail investors are playing a dangerous game that isn't going to end well.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMC院线正因债务和持续的疫情而陷入瘫痪。目前尚不清楚该公司能否为债务人提供服务，以弥补未来两年的预计损失。</li><li>自9月30日以来，Sundial Growers已发行11.5亿股新股，淹没了投资者。它是增长最慢的大麻股票之一，也可能是最后一批持续盈利的大麻股票之一。</li><li>游戏驿站等了太久才从实体零售模式转向数字游戏。现在它急于关闭商店，只是为了削减开支。</li><li>Zomedica刚刚推出了首个针对猫和狗的诊断系统，但其估值接近华尔街2023年预计销售额的80倍。</li></ul>散户投资者正在玩一场危险的游戏，不会有好结果。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7513496d5257634cbd04a6c701ce002b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Robinhood hoses its investors on cannabis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Robinhood用大麻欺骗投资者</b></blockquote></p><p>Another thing you'll note about the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks is that the platform hascompletely hamstrung its userswhen it comes to investing in marijuana. Cannabis is projected to be one of the fastest-growing industries of the decade. New Frontier Data believes annualized growth in the U.S., the most lucrative pot market in the world, will average 21% through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>关于持有最多的50只Robinhood股票，您会注意到的另一件事是，该平台在投资大麻方面完全阻碍了用户。大麻预计将成为十年来增长最快的产业之一。New Frontier Data认为，到2025年，美国这个世界上最赚钱的大麻市场的年化增长率将平均为21%。</blockquote></p><p>Yet Robinhood investors are virtually locked out of U.S. pot stocks. Since U.S.marijuana stockscan't list on the major U.S. exchanges, and Robinhood won't allow its users to buy over-the-counter-listed stocks, they're instead funneled into underperforming Canadian pot stocks like Sundial and Canopy Growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Robinhood投资者实际上被排除在美国大麻股之外。由于美国大麻股票无法在美国主要交易所上市，而且Robinhood也不允许其用户购买场外上市股票，因此它们转而流入Sundial和Canopy Growth等表现不佳的加拿大大麻股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Canopy Growth does have a boatload of cash, thanks to a number of equity investments from spirits-giant<b>Constellation Brands</b>, but it's done a poor job of putting that capital to work. It's overpaid for acquisitions, and the company's free-wheeling spending generated huge losses for years. Without U.S. legalization, Canopy's valuationremains a red flag.</p><p><blockquote>得益于烈酒巨头的多项股权投资，Canopy Growth确实拥有大量现金<b>星座品牌</b>，但它在将资本投入使用方面做得很差。它为收购支付了过高的费用，而且该公司的随心所欲的支出多年来造成了巨大的损失。如果没有美国的合法化，Canopy的估值仍然是一个危险信号。</blockquote></p><p>If there's any good news here, it's that Robinhood users at least nowhave a way to buy U.S. pot stocks, even if they can't get the unique exposure they might want. The<b>AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:MSOS)is an exchange-traded fund specifically focused on a variety of cannabis stocks in the United States. Since it's listed on a major exchange (hint, hint!), Robinhood users can buy it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说这里有什么好消息的话，那就是Robinhood用户至少现在有办法购买美国大麻股票，即使他们无法获得他们可能想要的独特曝光率。The<b>AdvisorShares纯美国大麻ETF</b>（NYSEMKT：MSOS）是一只专门专注于美国各种大麻股票的交易所交易基金。既然在各大交易所上市（提示，提示！），Robinhood用户可以购买。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abdae403dddfa42107e06ea5bfddf39\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Pedal to the metal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>踏板到金属</b></blockquote></p><p>A final trend you'll note from the 50 most-held stocks in April is that Robinhood investors really,<i>really</i>love companies that are developing or producing electric vehicles (EV) or alternative-energy transportation. EV stocks like Tesla, NIO, and Workhorse Group are garnering a lot of attention, with traditionalauto stocksFord and General Motors also widely owned. You'll also note hydrogen fuel-cell solutions provider Plug Power and FuelCell Energy are on the list.</p><p><blockquote>您会从4月份持有最多的50只股票中注意到的最后一个趋势是，Robinhood投资者确实，<i>真的</i>喜欢开发或生产电动汽车（EV）或替代能源交通的公司。特斯拉、蔚来和Workhorse Group等电动汽车股票受到了广泛关注，传统汽车股票福特和通用汽车也受到广泛持有。您还会注意到氢燃料电池解决方案提供商普拉格能源和FuelCell Energy也在名单上。</blockquote></p><p>It's pretty much a given at this point that the future of the automotive industry is anything that doesn't run on fossil fuels. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, by 2035, half of all new-vehicle sales in the world's largest auto market (China) are expected to be alternative energy (95% of which will be EVs). Investors are simply placing their bets early on what should be a runaway growth trend for multiple decades.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，几乎可以肯定的是，汽车行业的未来是任何不使用化石燃料的行业。根据中国汽车工程学会的数据，到2035年，全球最大汽车市场（中国）所有新车销量的一半预计将是替代能源（其中95%将是电动汽车）。投资者只是提前将赌注押在了几十年来本应失控的增长趋势上。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is that investors have historically overestimated the uptake on next-big-thing technologies. Dating back a little more than a quarter of a century, we saw bubbles burst with the internet, business-to-business commerce, genomics, blockchain, 3D printing, marijuana, and so on.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，投资者历来高估了对下一个重大技术的吸收。追溯到四分之一个多世纪前，我们看到了互联网、企业对企业商务、基因组学、区块链、3D打印、大麻等等的泡沫破裂。</blockquote></p><p>Electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell stocks will probably suffer the same fate. This isn't to say there won't be winners, so much as to point out that expectations don't come close to matching reality.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车和氢燃料电池股可能也会遭受同样的命运。这并不是说不会有赢家，而是指出期望与现实不符。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla, for example,wouldn't even be profitablewithout selling regulatory emission credits to other automakers. That's an unnerving realization for one of the largest publicly traded companies. Then there's NIO, which has produced 88,444 EVs since its inception through February 2021 but is carrying around a $56 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果不向其他汽车制造商出售监管排放信用额，特斯拉甚至无法盈利。对于最大的上市公司之一来说，这是一个令人不安的认识。然后是蔚来，自成立以来截至2021年2月已生产了88,444辆电动汽车，但市值约为560亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla and NIO can be successful, but these current valuationsdon't accurately reflect the challenges they'll facein the years that lie ahead.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和蔚来可以取得成功，但目前的估值并不能准确反映他们未来几年将面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in April<blockquote>4月份Robinhood前50只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Top 50 Robinhood Stocks in April<blockquote>4月份Robinhood前50只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-01 22:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Millennial investors can't resist the urge to buy into these stocks.For a majority of investors, volatility isn't something they look forward to. Then again, millennials aren't like a majority of investors.</p><p><blockquote>千禧一代投资者无法抗拒买入这些股票的冲动。对于大多数投资者来说，波动不是他们所期待的。话又说回来，千禧一代不像大多数投资者。</blockquote></p><p>In the wake of historic volatility over the past year and change, we've watched young and/or novice investors flock to the market like never before. If you need proof, just take a gander at what's happening over at Robinhood.</p><p><blockquote>在过去一年的历史性波动和变化之后，我们看到年轻和/或新手投资者前所未有地涌向市场。如果你需要证据，看看罗宾汉发生了什么。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99b3853458b2424e2901821012f5502f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Robinhood investors can't get enough of these 50 stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Robinhood投资者对这50只股票百看不厌</b></blockquote></p><p>Online investing app Robinhood, which is well-known for its commission-free trades, fractional-share investing, and gifting of free stock to new users, gained approximately 3 million new users last year. The interesting thing is that the average age of Robinhood's user base is only 31.</p><p><blockquote>在线投资应用Robinhood以其免佣金交易、部分股票投资和向新用户赠送免费股票而闻名，去年获得了约300万新用户。有意思的是，Robinhood用户群的平均年龄只有31岁。</blockquote></p><p>On one hand, seeing young people put their money to work in the world's greatest wealth creator is a happy sight. Since 1980, the average annual total return (i.e., including dividends) of the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>is over 10%. This is to say that the typical investor in an S&amp;P 500 index fund is doubling their money with dividend reinvestment every seven years.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，看到年轻人把钱投入到世界上最大的财富创造者身上是一种幸福的景象。自一九八零年起，本集团之平均年度总回报（即包括股息）<b>标普500</b>超过10%。也就是说，标普500指数基金的典型投资者每七年通过股息再投资将资金翻一番。</blockquote></p><p>But the other side of this coin is that young Robinhood investors are rarely thinking about the long term. The most-held stocks on the platform (known asRobinhood's leaderboard) tend to be a combination of penny stocks, momentum plays, and whatever companies happen to be making news within a given week or month.</p><p><blockquote>但硬币的另一面是，年轻的罗宾汉投资者很少考虑长期问题。该平台上持有最多的股票（称为Robinhood的排行榜）往往是细价股、动量股以及任何在特定一周或一个月内碰巧制造新闻的公司的组合。</blockquote></p><p>If you don't believe me, take a look at the top 50 stocks on Robinhood's leaderboard as we enter April.</p><p><blockquote>如果您不相信我，请查看进入4月份Robinhood排行榜上排名前50的股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4966ee220f5e18be9c4f617bc27a7be0\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"724\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01ba6e34aa3bf02cbe39aed01f0a7022\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Retail investors' meme game is strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>散户投资者的模因游戏很强</b></blockquote></p><p>If there's one thing that stands out from this list, it's that young Robinhood investors have faith in some highly questionable \"meme stocks.\"</p><p><blockquote>如果有一件事从这份名单中脱颖而出，那就是年轻的Robinhood投资者对一些非常可疑的“模因股票”充满信心。</blockquote></p><p>Without getting too far into the weeds, the meme stocks gained fame on community chat service Reddit. For the better part of 2 1/2 months, retail investors have been working together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options in heavily short-sold stocks, with the sole purpose of effecting ashort squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>在没有深入杂草的情况下，模因股票在社区聊天服务Reddit上声名鹊起。在两个半月的大部分时间里，散户投资者一直在共同努力购买大量卖空股票的股票和价外看涨期权期权，唯一目的是实现轧空。</blockquote></p><p>Since institutional investors and hedge funds hold the vast majority of shares held short, this meme movement has been pitched as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\" Examples of highly popular meme stocks include AMC Entertainment, Sundial Growers, GameStop, and Zomedica.</p><p><blockquote>由于机构投资者和对冲基金持有绝大多数空头股票，这场模因运动被定位为散户投资者和“大资金”之间的战斗。非常受欢迎的模因股票的例子包括AMC院线、Sundial Growers、游戏驿站和Zomedica。</blockquote></p><p>The concern is that most meme stocks have wildly detached from their underlying fundamentals. Even though euphoria and emotion drive share-price movements in the short term, operating results determine where a stock heads over the long run. In the case of the aforementioned meme stocks:</p><p><blockquote>令人担忧的是，大多数模因股票都严重脱离了其基本面。尽管兴奋和情绪在短期内推动股价走势，但经营业绩决定了股票的长期走势。就上述模因股票而言：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>AMC Entertainment is being crippled by debt and the ongoing pandemic. It'sunclear if the company can service its debtor cover projected losses over the next two years.</li><li>Sundial Growers has drowned its investorsby issuing 1.15 billion new sharessince Sept. 30. It's one of the slowest-growing marijuana stocks, and could also be one of the last pot stocks to turn profitable on a recurring basis.</li><li>GameStop waited far too long to shift away from a brick-and-mortar retail model to focus on digital gaming. Now it's scurrying to close stores, just to cut its expenses.</li><li>Zomedica just launched its first diagnostics system for cats and dogs but is valued at close to 80 times Wall Street's projected sales for 2023.</li></ul>Retail investors are playing a dangerous game that isn't going to end well.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMC院线正因债务和持续的疫情而陷入瘫痪。目前尚不清楚该公司能否为债务人提供服务，以弥补未来两年的预计损失。</li><li>自9月30日以来，Sundial Growers已发行11.5亿股新股，淹没了投资者。它是增长最慢的大麻股票之一，也可能是最后一批持续盈利的大麻股票之一。</li><li>游戏驿站等了太久才从实体零售模式转向数字游戏。现在它急于关闭商店，只是为了削减开支。</li><li>Zomedica刚刚推出了首个针对猫和狗的诊断系统，但其估值接近华尔街2023年预计销售额的80倍。</li></ul>散户投资者正在玩一场危险的游戏，不会有好结果。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7513496d5257634cbd04a6c701ce002b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Robinhood hoses its investors on cannabis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Robinhood用大麻欺骗投资者</b></blockquote></p><p>Another thing you'll note about the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks is that the platform hascompletely hamstrung its userswhen it comes to investing in marijuana. Cannabis is projected to be one of the fastest-growing industries of the decade. New Frontier Data believes annualized growth in the U.S., the most lucrative pot market in the world, will average 21% through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>关于持有最多的50只Robinhood股票，您会注意到的另一件事是，该平台在投资大麻方面完全阻碍了用户。大麻预计将成为十年来增长最快的产业之一。New Frontier Data认为，到2025年，美国这个世界上最赚钱的大麻市场的年化增长率将平均为21%。</blockquote></p><p>Yet Robinhood investors are virtually locked out of U.S. pot stocks. Since U.S.marijuana stockscan't list on the major U.S. exchanges, and Robinhood won't allow its users to buy over-the-counter-listed stocks, they're instead funneled into underperforming Canadian pot stocks like Sundial and Canopy Growth.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Robinhood投资者实际上被排除在美国大麻股之外。由于美国大麻股票无法在美国主要交易所上市，而且Robinhood也不允许其用户购买场外上市股票，因此它们转而流入Sundial和Canopy Growth等表现不佳的加拿大大麻股票。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Canopy Growth does have a boatload of cash, thanks to a number of equity investments from spirits-giant<b>Constellation Brands</b>, but it's done a poor job of putting that capital to work. It's overpaid for acquisitions, and the company's free-wheeling spending generated huge losses for years. Without U.S. legalization, Canopy's valuationremains a red flag.</p><p><blockquote>得益于烈酒巨头的多项股权投资，Canopy Growth确实拥有大量现金<b>星座品牌</b>，但它在将资本投入使用方面做得很差。它为收购支付了过高的费用，而且该公司的随心所欲的支出多年来造成了巨大的损失。如果没有美国的合法化，Canopy的估值仍然是一个危险信号。</blockquote></p><p>If there's any good news here, it's that Robinhood users at least nowhave a way to buy U.S. pot stocks, even if they can't get the unique exposure they might want. The<b>AdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF</b>(NYSEMKT:MSOS)is an exchange-traded fund specifically focused on a variety of cannabis stocks in the United States. Since it's listed on a major exchange (hint, hint!), Robinhood users can buy it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说这里有什么好消息的话，那就是Robinhood用户至少现在有办法购买美国大麻股票，即使他们无法获得他们可能想要的独特曝光率。The<b>AdvisorShares纯美国大麻ETF</b>（NYSEMKT：MSOS）是一只专门专注于美国各种大麻股票的交易所交易基金。既然在各大交易所上市（提示，提示！），Robinhood用户可以购买。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abdae403dddfa42107e06ea5bfddf39\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p><b>Pedal to the metal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>踏板到金属</b></blockquote></p><p>A final trend you'll note from the 50 most-held stocks in April is that Robinhood investors really,<i>really</i>love companies that are developing or producing electric vehicles (EV) or alternative-energy transportation. EV stocks like Tesla, NIO, and Workhorse Group are garnering a lot of attention, with traditionalauto stocksFord and General Motors also widely owned. You'll also note hydrogen fuel-cell solutions provider Plug Power and FuelCell Energy are on the list.</p><p><blockquote>您会从4月份持有最多的50只股票中注意到的最后一个趋势是，Robinhood投资者确实，<i>真的</i>喜欢开发或生产电动汽车（EV）或替代能源交通的公司。特斯拉、蔚来和Workhorse Group等电动汽车股票受到了广泛关注，传统汽车股票福特和通用汽车也受到广泛持有。您还会注意到氢燃料电池解决方案提供商普拉格能源和FuelCell Energy也在名单上。</blockquote></p><p>It's pretty much a given at this point that the future of the automotive industry is anything that doesn't run on fossil fuels. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, by 2035, half of all new-vehicle sales in the world's largest auto market (China) are expected to be alternative energy (95% of which will be EVs). Investors are simply placing their bets early on what should be a runaway growth trend for multiple decades.</p><p><blockquote>在这一点上，几乎可以肯定的是，汽车行业的未来是任何不使用化石燃料的行业。根据中国汽车工程学会的数据，到2035年，全球最大汽车市场（中国）所有新车销量的一半预计将是替代能源（其中95%将是电动汽车）。投资者只是提前将赌注押在了几十年来本应失控的增长趋势上。</blockquote></p><p>The problem is that investors have historically overestimated the uptake on next-big-thing technologies. Dating back a little more than a quarter of a century, we saw bubbles burst with the internet, business-to-business commerce, genomics, blockchain, 3D printing, marijuana, and so on.</p><p><blockquote>问题在于，投资者历来高估了对下一个重大技术的吸收。追溯到四分之一个多世纪前，我们看到了互联网、企业对企业商务、基因组学、区块链、3D打印、大麻等等的泡沫破裂。</blockquote></p><p>Electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell stocks will probably suffer the same fate. This isn't to say there won't be winners, so much as to point out that expectations don't come close to matching reality.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车和氢燃料电池股可能也会遭受同样的命运。这并不是说不会有赢家，而是指出期望与现实不符。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla, for example,wouldn't even be profitablewithout selling regulatory emission credits to other automakers. That's an unnerving realization for one of the largest publicly traded companies. Then there's NIO, which has produced 88,444 EVs since its inception through February 2021 but is carrying around a $56 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果不向其他汽车制造商出售监管排放信用额，特斯拉甚至无法盈利。对于最大的上市公司之一来说，这是一个令人不安的认识。然后是蔚来，自成立以来截至2021年2月已生产了88,444辆电动汽车，但市值约为560亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla and NIO can be successful, but these current valuationsdon't accurately reflect the challenges they'll facein the years that lie ahead.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和蔚来可以取得成功，但目前的估值并不能准确反映他们未来几年将面临的挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-april/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/01/the-top-50-robinhood-stocks-in-april/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195370915","content_text":"Millennial investors can't resist the urge to buy into these stocks.For a majority of investors, volatility isn't something they look forward to. Then again, millennials aren't like a majority of investors.In the wake of historic volatility over the past year and change, we've watched young and/or novice investors flock to the market like never before. If you need proof, just take a gander at what's happening over at Robinhood.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Robinhood investors can't get enough of these 50 stocksOnline investing app Robinhood, which is well-known for its commission-free trades, fractional-share investing, and gifting of free stock to new users, gained approximately 3 million new users last year. The interesting thing is that the average age of Robinhood's user base is only 31.On one hand, seeing young people put their money to work in the world's greatest wealth creator is a happy sight. Since 1980, the average annual total return (i.e., including dividends) of theS&P 500is over 10%. This is to say that the typical investor in an S&P 500 index fund is doubling their money with dividend reinvestment every seven years.But the other side of this coin is that young Robinhood investors are rarely thinking about the long term. The most-held stocks on the platform (known asRobinhood's leaderboard) tend to be a combination of penny stocks, momentum plays, and whatever companies happen to be making news within a given week or month.If you don't believe me, take a look at the top 50 stocks on Robinhood's leaderboard as we enter April.Retail investors' meme game is strongIf there's one thing that stands out from this list, it's that young Robinhood investors have faith in some highly questionable \"meme stocks.\"Without getting too far into the weeds, the meme stocks gained fame on community chat service Reddit. For the better part of 2 1/2 months, retail investors have been working together to buy shares and out-of-the-money call options in heavily short-sold stocks, with the sole purpose of effecting ashort squeeze.Since institutional investors and hedge funds hold the vast majority of shares held short, this meme movement has been pitched as a battle between retail investors and the \"big money.\" Examples of highly popular meme stocks include AMC Entertainment, Sundial Growers, GameStop, and Zomedica.The concern is that most meme stocks have wildly detached from their underlying fundamentals. Even though euphoria and emotion drive share-price movements in the short term, operating results determine where a stock heads over the long run. In the case of the aforementioned meme stocks:AMC Entertainment is being crippled by debt and the ongoing pandemic. It'sunclear if the company can service its debtor cover projected losses over the next two years.Sundial Growers has drowned its investorsby issuing 1.15 billion new sharessince Sept. 30. It's one of the slowest-growing marijuana stocks, and could also be one of the last pot stocks to turn profitable on a recurring basis.GameStop waited far too long to shift away from a brick-and-mortar retail model to focus on digital gaming. Now it's scurrying to close stores, just to cut its expenses.Zomedica just launched its first diagnostics system for cats and dogs but is valued at close to 80 times Wall Street's projected sales for 2023.Retail investors are playing a dangerous game that isn't going to end well.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Robinhood hoses its investors on cannabisAnother thing you'll note about the 50 most-held Robinhood stocks is that the platform hascompletely hamstrung its userswhen it comes to investing in marijuana. Cannabis is projected to be one of the fastest-growing industries of the decade. New Frontier Data believes annualized growth in the U.S., the most lucrative pot market in the world, will average 21% through 2025.Yet Robinhood investors are virtually locked out of U.S. pot stocks. Since U.S.marijuana stockscan't list on the major U.S. exchanges, and Robinhood won't allow its users to buy over-the-counter-listed stocks, they're instead funneled into underperforming Canadian pot stocks like Sundial and Canopy Growth.Canopy Growth does have a boatload of cash, thanks to a number of equity investments from spirits-giantConstellation Brands, but it's done a poor job of putting that capital to work. It's overpaid for acquisitions, and the company's free-wheeling spending generated huge losses for years. Without U.S. legalization, Canopy's valuationremains a red flag.If there's any good news here, it's that Robinhood users at least nowhave a way to buy U.S. pot stocks, even if they can't get the unique exposure they might want. TheAdvisorShares Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF(NYSEMKT:MSOS)is an exchange-traded fund specifically focused on a variety of cannabis stocks in the United States. Since it's listed on a major exchange (hint, hint!), Robinhood users can buy it.IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.Pedal to the metalA final trend you'll note from the 50 most-held stocks in April is that Robinhood investors really,reallylove companies that are developing or producing electric vehicles (EV) or alternative-energy transportation. EV stocks like Tesla, NIO, and Workhorse Group are garnering a lot of attention, with traditionalauto stocksFord and General Motors also widely owned. You'll also note hydrogen fuel-cell solutions provider Plug Power and FuelCell Energy are on the list.It's pretty much a given at this point that the future of the automotive industry is anything that doesn't run on fossil fuels. According to the Society of Automotive Engineers of China, by 2035, half of all new-vehicle sales in the world's largest auto market (China) are expected to be alternative energy (95% of which will be EVs). Investors are simply placing their bets early on what should be a runaway growth trend for multiple decades.The problem is that investors have historically overestimated the uptake on next-big-thing technologies. Dating back a little more than a quarter of a century, we saw bubbles burst with the internet, business-to-business commerce, genomics, blockchain, 3D printing, marijuana, and so on.Electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell stocks will probably suffer the same fate. This isn't to say there won't be winners, so much as to point out that expectations don't come close to matching reality.Tesla, for example,wouldn't even be profitablewithout selling regulatory emission credits to other automakers. That's an unnerving realization for one of the largest publicly traded companies. Then there's NIO, which has produced 88,444 EVs since its inception through February 2021 but is carrying around a $56 billion market cap.Tesla and NIO can be successful, but these current valuationsdon't accurately reflect the challenges they'll facein the years that lie ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868409596,"gmtCreate":1632695606915,"gmtModify":1632798603736,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868409596","repostId":"369841752","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":369841752,"gmtCreate":1614034128676,"gmtModify":1614034128676,"author":{"id":"3447390030446075","authorId":"3447390030446075","name":"核桃","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd339e6d92daa8579744094566fc499c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3447390030446075","idStr":"3447390030446075"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369841752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818476965,"gmtCreate":1630444312357,"gmtModify":1631887094065,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818476965","repostId":"811761853","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":811761853,"gmtCreate":1630358834372,"gmtModify":1704958923163,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple has been on an uptrend lately.&nbsp; Is it time to buy more? 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙🎉🎊🎉","listText":"Apple has been on an uptrend lately.&nbsp; Is it time to buy more? 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙🎉🎊🎉","text":"Apple has been on an uptrend lately. Is it time to buy more? 🚀🚀🚀🌙🌙🌙🎉🎊🎉","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83c3cbe82e153d1e8528575cb24d6774","width":"1080","height":"3543"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811761853","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371456393,"gmtCreate":1618967437312,"gmtModify":1634289553690,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371456393","repostId":"2129289138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345931768,"gmtCreate":1618271477354,"gmtModify":1634294076021,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345931768","repostId":"1188840982","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188840982","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1618237983,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188840982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-12 22:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop plunged more than 10%, GameStop Skeptic Warns That Reddit Rally Will Fade<blockquote>游戏驿站暴跌逾10%，游戏驿站怀疑论者警告Reddit涨势将消退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188840982","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 12) GameStop plunged more than 10%，GameStop Skeptic Warns That Reddit Rally Will Fade; Shares","content":"<p>(April 12)&nbsp;GameStop plunged more than 10%，GameStop Skeptic Warns That Reddit Rally Will Fade; Shares Slump.</p><p><blockquote>（4月12日）游戏驿站暴跌逾10%，游戏驿站怀疑论者警告Reddit涨势将消退；股价暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0e81ec43e109abaa82e6aae6fe9a36\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"564\">GameStop Corp.’s Reddit-fueled trading surge is likely going to fade as threats from digital game downloads sink in, according to one skeptical Wall Street analyst.</p><p><blockquote>一位持怀疑态度的华尔街分析师表示，随着数字游戏下载的威胁逐渐加深，游戏驿站公司在Reddit推动下的交易激增可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> The stock slumped after Ascendiant Capital Markets analyst Edward Woo downgraded the retailer to sell from hold, saying increasing digital sales for video-game publishers is a looming risk given GameStop’s minimal market share. He warned clients in a note about the long-term prospects for the company as the market for new gaming systems matures after new launches from Microsoft Corp. and Sony Group Corp.</p><p><blockquote>Ascendiant Capital Markets分析师Edward Woo将该零售商的评级从持有下调至卖出，称鉴于游戏驿站的市场份额微乎其微，增加视频游戏发行商的数字销售是一个迫在眉睫的风险，随后该股暴跌。他在一份报告中警告客户，随着微软公司和索尼集团公司推出新游戏系统后新游戏系统市场的成熟，该公司的长期前景将受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> The video-game retailer’s 741% surge this year through Friday’s close pushed its market value to $11 billion, however, Woo expects shares will tumble in the long run “to match its current weak results and outlook.” He trimmed his price target to $10 from $12, implying as much as a 94% drop from Friday’s close at $158.36.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五收盘，这家视频游戏零售商今年股价飙升741%，将其市值推至110亿美元，然而，Woo预计，从长远来看，股价将暴跌，“以匹配其当前疲软的业绩和前景”。他将目标价从12美元下调至10美元，这意味着较周五收盘价158.36美元下跌了94%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the Grapevine, Texas-based company reversed initial gains to slump as much as 11% at 9:58 a.m. in New York. The stock has shed a quarter of its value in the past six session after a company plan to sell as much as $1 billion in additional shares.</p><p><blockquote>纽约时间上午9点58分，这家总部位于德克萨斯州格雷普韦恩的公司股价扭转了最初的涨幅，暴跌11%。在一家公司计划出售高达10亿美元的额外股票后，该股在过去六个交易日中下跌了四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ascendiant called out the rise in popularity of GameStop on Reddit chat boards and with Robinhood investors for making shares trade on “retail investors sentiment, hope, momentum, and the powers of crowds” in place of fundamental metrics. Woo did acknowledge the mania can drive shares much higher in the near-term, making short-term price forecasts “nearly impossible.”</p><p><blockquote>Ascendiant呼吁游戏驿站在Reddit聊天板和Robinhood投资者中越来越受欢迎，因为他们根据“散户投资者的情绪、希望、势头和人群的力量”而不是基本指标进行股票交易。吴确实承认，这种狂热可能会在短期内推动股价大幅上涨，使得短期价格预测“几乎不可能”。</blockquote></p><p> The stock now has five sell-equivalent ratings, compared to two hold ratings and zero buys, data compiled by Bloomberg show. An average price target of $46.50 implies shares will lose more than two-thirds of their value in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>彭博社汇编的数据显示，该股目前有五个卖出评级，而两个持有评级和零买入评级。46.50美元的平均目标价意味着未来一年股价将损失三分之二以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop plunged more than 10%, GameStop Skeptic Warns That Reddit Rally Will Fade<blockquote>游戏驿站暴跌逾10%，游戏驿站怀疑论者警告Reddit涨势将消退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop plunged more than 10%, GameStop Skeptic Warns That Reddit Rally Will Fade<blockquote>游戏驿站暴跌逾10%，游戏驿站怀疑论者警告Reddit涨势将消退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-12 22:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 12)&nbsp;GameStop plunged more than 10%，GameStop Skeptic Warns That Reddit Rally Will Fade; Shares Slump.</p><p><blockquote>（4月12日）游戏驿站暴跌逾10%，游戏驿站怀疑论者警告Reddit涨势将消退；股价暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0e81ec43e109abaa82e6aae6fe9a36\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"564\">GameStop Corp.’s Reddit-fueled trading surge is likely going to fade as threats from digital game downloads sink in, according to one skeptical Wall Street analyst.</p><p><blockquote>一位持怀疑态度的华尔街分析师表示，随着数字游戏下载的威胁逐渐加深，游戏驿站公司在Reddit推动下的交易激增可能会消退。</blockquote></p><p> The stock slumped after Ascendiant Capital Markets analyst Edward Woo downgraded the retailer to sell from hold, saying increasing digital sales for video-game publishers is a looming risk given GameStop’s minimal market share. He warned clients in a note about the long-term prospects for the company as the market for new gaming systems matures after new launches from Microsoft Corp. and Sony Group Corp.</p><p><blockquote>Ascendiant Capital Markets分析师Edward Woo将该零售商的评级从持有下调至卖出，称鉴于游戏驿站的市场份额微乎其微，增加视频游戏发行商的数字销售是一个迫在眉睫的风险，随后该股暴跌。他在一份报告中警告客户，随着微软公司和索尼集团公司推出新游戏系统后新游戏系统市场的成熟，该公司的长期前景将受到影响。</blockquote></p><p> The video-game retailer’s 741% surge this year through Friday’s close pushed its market value to $11 billion, however, Woo expects shares will tumble in the long run “to match its current weak results and outlook.” He trimmed his price target to $10 from $12, implying as much as a 94% drop from Friday’s close at $158.36.</p><p><blockquote>截至周五收盘，这家视频游戏零售商今年股价飙升741%，将其市值推至110亿美元，然而，Woo预计，从长远来看，股价将暴跌，“以匹配其当前疲软的业绩和前景”。他将目标价从12美元下调至10美元，这意味着较周五收盘价158.36美元下跌了94%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the Grapevine, Texas-based company reversed initial gains to slump as much as 11% at 9:58 a.m. in New York. The stock has shed a quarter of its value in the past six session after a company plan to sell as much as $1 billion in additional shares.</p><p><blockquote>纽约时间上午9点58分，这家总部位于德克萨斯州格雷普韦恩的公司股价扭转了最初的涨幅，暴跌11%。在一家公司计划出售高达10亿美元的额外股票后，该股在过去六个交易日中下跌了四分之一。</blockquote></p><p> Ascendiant called out the rise in popularity of GameStop on Reddit chat boards and with Robinhood investors for making shares trade on “retail investors sentiment, hope, momentum, and the powers of crowds” in place of fundamental metrics. Woo did acknowledge the mania can drive shares much higher in the near-term, making short-term price forecasts “nearly impossible.”</p><p><blockquote>Ascendiant呼吁游戏驿站在Reddit聊天板和Robinhood投资者中越来越受欢迎，因为他们根据“散户投资者的情绪、希望、势头和人群的力量”而不是基本指标进行股票交易。吴确实承认，这种狂热可能会在短期内推动股价大幅上涨，使得短期价格预测“几乎不可能”。</blockquote></p><p> The stock now has five sell-equivalent ratings, compared to two hold ratings and zero buys, data compiled by Bloomberg show. An average price target of $46.50 implies shares will lose more than two-thirds of their value in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>彭博社汇编的数据显示，该股目前有五个卖出评级，而两个持有评级和零买入评级。46.50美元的平均目标价意味着未来一年股价将损失三分之二以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188840982","content_text":"(April 12) GameStop plunged more than 10%，GameStop Skeptic Warns That Reddit Rally Will Fade; Shares Slump.\nGameStop Corp.’s Reddit-fueled trading surge is likely going to fade as threats from digital game downloads sink in, according to one skeptical Wall Street analyst.\nThe stock slumped after Ascendiant Capital Markets analyst Edward Woo downgraded the retailer to sell from hold, saying increasing digital sales for video-game publishers is a looming risk given GameStop’s minimal market share. He warned clients in a note about the long-term prospects for the company as the market for new gaming systems matures after new launches from Microsoft Corp. and Sony Group Corp.\nThe video-game retailer’s 741% surge this year through Friday’s close pushed its market value to $11 billion, however, Woo expects shares will tumble in the long run “to match its current weak results and outlook.” He trimmed his price target to $10 from $12, implying as much as a 94% drop from Friday’s close at $158.36.\nShares of the Grapevine, Texas-based company reversed initial gains to slump as much as 11% at 9:58 a.m. in New York. The stock has shed a quarter of its value in the past six session after a company plan to sell as much as $1 billion in additional shares.\nAscendiant called out the rise in popularity of GameStop on Reddit chat boards and with Robinhood investors for making shares trade on “retail investors sentiment, hope, momentum, and the powers of crowds” in place of fundamental metrics. Woo did acknowledge the mania can drive shares much higher in the near-term, making short-term price forecasts “nearly impossible.”\nThe stock now has five sell-equivalent ratings, compared to two hold ratings and zero buys, data compiled by Bloomberg show. An average price target of $46.50 implies shares will lose more than two-thirds of their value in the coming year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145209748,"gmtCreate":1626223792884,"gmtModify":1631887094105,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145209748","repostId":"146181500","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":146181500,"gmtCreate":1626059085700,"gmtModify":1631887059675,"author":{"id":"3576986058315907","authorId":"3576986058315907","name":"YG_TAN666","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b21dfa6486c96b941ddc55093dfccd2","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576986058315907","idStr":"3576986058315907"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>task","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BS6.SI\">$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$</a>task","text":"$YANGZIJIANG SHIPBLDG HLDGS LTD(BS6.SI)$task","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33e8db0ca6b329a608cdfecb3cc38558","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146181500","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":111127832,"gmtCreate":1622668287226,"gmtModify":1634099445261,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/111127832","repostId":"2140419846","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":342972333,"gmtCreate":1618179291522,"gmtModify":1634294654111,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342972333","repostId":"1168300924","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168300924","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617955250,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168300924?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-09 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Next Week’s IPO Lineup Is Growing. It Could Be Busy.<blockquote>下周IPO阵容不断壮大。可能会很忙。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168300924","media":"barrons","summary":"The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Pa","content":"<p>The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.</p><p><blockquote>4月的第二周将成为IPO市场相对强劲的时期。又有多达四家公司在股市首次亮相，使总数至少达到六家。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的加密货币交易所Coinbase定于4月14日星期三开业交易。三位知情人士表示，Applovin和图森未来将于第二天上市。Agilon Health将于周四首次亮相。</blockquote></p><p>And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Packaging, whichmakes environmentally-friendly disposable food service products, are also reportedly going public.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，银行软件公司Alkami Technology和生产环保一次性食品服务产品的Karat Packaging也将上市。</blockquote></p><p>This week, by way of contrast, two companies, Reneo Pharmaceuticals and VectivBio Holding, are listing. Both are small biotech companies that areslated to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，本周有两家公司Reneo Pharmaceuticals和VectivBio Holding上市。这两家公司都是小型生物技术公司，预计将于周五在纳斯达克开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>Applovin on Wednesday set terms for its initial public offering. It is offering 25 million shares at $75 to $85 each, which means it could raise as much as $2.13 billion if the stock sells at the high end of that range. The company plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol APP.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin周三设定了首次公开募股的条款。该公司将以每股75至85美元的价格发行2500万股股票，这意味着如果该股票以该区间的高端出售，它可以筹集高达21.3亿美元的资金。该公司计划在纳斯达克以APP为代码进行交易。</blockquote></p><p>Eighteen underwriters are listed in the Applovin prospectus, includingMorgan Stanley(ticker: MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),KKR,&nbsp;Bank of America‘s (BAC) BofA Securities, andCitigroup(C).</p><p><blockquote>Applovin招股说明书中列出了18家承销商，包括摩根士丹利（股票代码：MS）、摩根大通(JPM)、KKR、美国银行(BAC)美银证券和花旗集团(C)。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2012, Applovin&nbsp;provides software&nbsp;used by mobile-game developers to grow their businesses.&nbsp; Some 410 million people a day open apps that contain Applovin software, according to the company. Applovin also has a portfolio of more than 200 free-to-play mobile games with 32 million daily users.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin成立于2012年，提供手机游戏开发商用来发展业务的软件。据该公司称，每天约有4.1亿人打开包含Applovin软件的应用程序。Applovin还拥有200多款免费手机游戏，日用户达3200万。</blockquote></p><p>In 2018, KKRbought a minority stakein Applovin for $400 million, valuing Applovin at $2 billion at the time. Applovin in February acquired Adjust, a firm that helps mobile-app developers measure the performance of apps and prevent fraud, for $1 billion. KKR will own 67.4% of the company after the IPO, theprospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，KKR以4亿美元收购了Applovin的少数股权，当时Applovin的估值为20亿美元。Applovin今年2月以10亿美元收购了Adjust，这是一家帮助移动应用开发者衡量应用性能和防止欺诈的公司。招股说明书称，IPO后KKR将拥有该公司67.4%的股份。</blockquote></p><p>With 357,955,309 shares outstanding, Applovin’s market capitalization could hit $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin的流通股为357,955,309股，市值可能达到300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple also set terms for its IPO. The self-driving technology company could raise as much as $1.3 billion; it is offering nearly 34 million shares at $35 to $39 each. It will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker TSP.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来还设定了IPO条款。这家自动驾驶技术公司可能筹集高达13亿美元的资金；该公司以每股35至39美元的价格发行近3400万股股票。它将在纳斯达克交易，股票代码为TSP。</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley(MS),Citigroup,and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are lead bookrunners on the deal.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（MS）、花旗集团和摩根大通（JPM）是该交易的牵头账簿管理人。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2015, TuSimple is looking to transform the $800 billion trucking industry. The San Diego company, which has plants in Tucson, Shanghai, and Beijing, in addition to operations in Japan, is developing an autonomous freight network for long-haul, semi-trucks that it says will increase efficiency and safety on the road, while cutting operating costs.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来成立于2015年，旨在改变价值8000亿美元的卡车运输业。这家圣地亚哥公司除了在日本开展业务外，还在图森、上海和北京设有工厂，正在为长途半挂卡车开发自动货运网络，据称这将提高道路效率和安全性，同时削减运营成本。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple develops software for the Level 4 self-driving, long-haul trucks, which can see up to 1,000 meters away, equivalent to 30 seconds of driving time. High-definition maps provide accuracy within five centimeters.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来为4级自动驾驶长途卡车开发软件，可以看到1000米以外的地方，相当于30秒的驾驶时间。高清地图提供了五厘米以内的精度。</blockquote></p><p>The company is partnering withNavistar(NAV) to develop trucks for the North American market by 2024,its prospectus said. TuSimple has another partnership withVolkswagensubsidiary TRATON for trucks in Europe. Navistar, TRATON, and United Parcel Service (UPS) are all investors.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称，该公司正在与Navistar(NAV)合作，到2024年为北美市场开发卡车。图森未来与大众汽车子公司TRATON在欧洲建立了卡车合作伙伴关系。Navistar、TRATON和联合包裹服务公司(UPS)都是投资者。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple has raised $800 million in funding, including a $350 million round in November led by VectoIQ.BlackRock(BR), Fidelity Management &amp; Research Co and Capital Group are in talks to buy up to 10.1 million TuSimple shares at the IPO price, the prospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来已筹集8亿美元资金，其中包括11月份由VectoIQ领投的3.5亿美元融资。招股说明书称，贝莱德(BR)、富达管理与研究公司和资本集团正在洽谈以IPO价格购买最多1010万股图森未来股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company will have 212,263,328 shares outstanding, meaning TuSimple’s market cap could climb to $8.3 billion. TuSimple, however, is not profitable. Losses widened to $177.9 million in 2020 from $84.9 million in 2019. Revenue jumped nearly 160% to $1.8 million in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将拥有212,263,328股已发行股票，这意味着图森未来的市值可能攀升至83亿美元。然而，图森未来并未盈利。亏损从2019年的8490万美元扩大至2020年的1.779亿美元。2020年收入增长近160%至180万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Next Week’s IPO Lineup Is Growing. It Could Be Busy.<blockquote>下周IPO阵容不断壮大。可能会很忙。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNext Week’s IPO Lineup Is Growing. It Could Be Busy.<blockquote>下周IPO阵容不断壮大。可能会很忙。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-09 16:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.</p><p><blockquote>4月的第二周将成为IPO市场相对强劲的时期。又有多达四家公司在股市首次亮相，使总数至少达到六家。</blockquote></p><p>Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的加密货币交易所Coinbase定于4月14日星期三开业交易。三位知情人士表示，Applovin和图森未来将于第二天上市。Agilon Health将于周四首次亮相。</blockquote></p><p>And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Packaging, whichmakes environmentally-friendly disposable food service products, are also reportedly going public.</p><p><blockquote>据报道，银行软件公司Alkami Technology和生产环保一次性食品服务产品的Karat Packaging也将上市。</blockquote></p><p>This week, by way of contrast, two companies, Reneo Pharmaceuticals and VectivBio Holding, are listing. Both are small biotech companies that areslated to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，本周有两家公司Reneo Pharmaceuticals和VectivBio Holding上市。这两家公司都是小型生物技术公司，预计将于周五在纳斯达克开始交易。</blockquote></p><p>Applovin on Wednesday set terms for its initial public offering. It is offering 25 million shares at $75 to $85 each, which means it could raise as much as $2.13 billion if the stock sells at the high end of that range. The company plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol APP.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin周三设定了首次公开募股的条款。该公司将以每股75至85美元的价格发行2500万股股票，这意味着如果该股票以该区间的高端出售，它可以筹集高达21.3亿美元的资金。该公司计划在纳斯达克以APP为代码进行交易。</blockquote></p><p>Eighteen underwriters are listed in the Applovin prospectus, includingMorgan Stanley(ticker: MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),KKR,&nbsp;Bank of America‘s (BAC) BofA Securities, andCitigroup(C).</p><p><blockquote>Applovin招股说明书中列出了18家承销商，包括摩根士丹利（股票代码：MS）、摩根大通(JPM)、KKR、美国银行(BAC)美银证券和花旗集团(C)。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2012, Applovin&nbsp;provides software&nbsp;used by mobile-game developers to grow their businesses.&nbsp; Some 410 million people a day open apps that contain Applovin software, according to the company. Applovin also has a portfolio of more than 200 free-to-play mobile games with 32 million daily users.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin成立于2012年，提供手机游戏开发商用来发展业务的软件。据该公司称，每天约有4.1亿人打开包含Applovin软件的应用程序。Applovin还拥有200多款免费手机游戏，日用户达3200万。</blockquote></p><p>In 2018, KKRbought a minority stakein Applovin for $400 million, valuing Applovin at $2 billion at the time. Applovin in February acquired Adjust, a firm that helps mobile-app developers measure the performance of apps and prevent fraud, for $1 billion. KKR will own 67.4% of the company after the IPO, theprospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>2018年，KKR以4亿美元收购了Applovin的少数股权，当时Applovin的估值为20亿美元。Applovin今年2月以10亿美元收购了Adjust，这是一家帮助移动应用开发者衡量应用性能和防止欺诈的公司。招股说明书称，IPO后KKR将拥有该公司67.4%的股份。</blockquote></p><p>With 357,955,309 shares outstanding, Applovin’s market capitalization could hit $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Applovin的流通股为357,955,309股，市值可能达到300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple also set terms for its IPO. The self-driving technology company could raise as much as $1.3 billion; it is offering nearly 34 million shares at $35 to $39 each. It will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker TSP.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来还设定了IPO条款。这家自动驾驶技术公司可能筹集高达13亿美元的资金；该公司以每股35至39美元的价格发行近3400万股股票。它将在纳斯达克交易，股票代码为TSP。</blockquote></p><p>Morgan Stanley(MS),Citigroup,and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are lead bookrunners on the deal.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（MS）、花旗集团和摩根大通（JPM）是该交易的牵头账簿管理人。</blockquote></p><p>Founded in 2015, TuSimple is looking to transform the $800 billion trucking industry. The San Diego company, which has plants in Tucson, Shanghai, and Beijing, in addition to operations in Japan, is developing an autonomous freight network for long-haul, semi-trucks that it says will increase efficiency and safety on the road, while cutting operating costs.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来成立于2015年，旨在改变价值8000亿美元的卡车运输业。这家圣地亚哥公司除了在日本开展业务外，还在图森、上海和北京设有工厂，正在为长途半挂卡车开发自动货运网络，据称这将提高道路效率和安全性，同时削减运营成本。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple develops software for the Level 4 self-driving, long-haul trucks, which can see up to 1,000 meters away, equivalent to 30 seconds of driving time. High-definition maps provide accuracy within five centimeters.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来为4级自动驾驶长途卡车开发软件，可以看到1000米以外的地方，相当于30秒的驾驶时间。高清地图提供了五厘米以内的精度。</blockquote></p><p>The company is partnering withNavistar(NAV) to develop trucks for the North American market by 2024,its prospectus said. TuSimple has another partnership withVolkswagensubsidiary TRATON for trucks in Europe. Navistar, TRATON, and United Parcel Service (UPS) are all investors.</p><p><blockquote>招股说明书称，该公司正在与Navistar(NAV)合作，到2024年为北美市场开发卡车。图森未来与大众汽车子公司TRATON在欧洲建立了卡车合作伙伴关系。Navistar、TRATON和联合包裹服务公司(UPS)都是投资者。</blockquote></p><p>TuSimple has raised $800 million in funding, including a $350 million round in November led by VectoIQ.BlackRock(BR), Fidelity Management &amp; Research Co and Capital Group are in talks to buy up to 10.1 million TuSimple shares at the IPO price, the prospectus said.</p><p><blockquote>图森未来已筹集8亿美元资金，其中包括11月份由VectoIQ领投的3.5亿美元融资。招股说明书称，贝莱德(BR)、富达管理与研究公司和资本集团正在洽谈以IPO价格购买最多1010万股图森未来股票。</blockquote></p><p>The company will have 212,263,328 shares outstanding, meaning TuSimple’s market cap could climb to $8.3 billion. TuSimple, however, is not profitable. Losses widened to $177.9 million in 2020 from $84.9 million in 2019. Revenue jumped nearly 160% to $1.8 million in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将拥有212,263,328股已发行股票，这意味着图森未来的市值可能攀升至83亿美元。然而，图森未来并未盈利。亏损从2019年的8490万美元扩大至2020年的1.779亿美元。2020年收入增长近160%至180万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/next-weeks-ipo-lineup-is-growing-it-could-be-busy-51617907448?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"APP":"AppLovin Corporation","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","KRT":"Karat Packaging Inc.","ALKT":"Alkami Technology, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/next-weeks-ipo-lineup-is-growing-it-could-be-busy-51617907448?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168300924","content_text":"The second week of April is shaping up to be a relatively strong time for the IPO market. As many as four more companies are making their stock-market debuts, bringing the total to at least six.Coinbase, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange,is slated to open for trading on Wednesday, April 14. Applovin and TuSimple are listing the next day, three people familiar with the situation said. Agilon Health ismaking its debut that Thursday.And Alkami Technology,a bank software company, and Karat Packaging, whichmakes environmentally-friendly disposable food service products, are also reportedly going public.This week, by way of contrast, two companies, Reneo Pharmaceuticals and VectivBio Holding, are listing. Both are small biotech companies that areslated to begin trading on the Nasdaq on Friday.Applovin on Wednesday set terms for its initial public offering. It is offering 25 million shares at $75 to $85 each, which means it could raise as much as $2.13 billion if the stock sells at the high end of that range. The company plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol APP.Eighteen underwriters are listed in the Applovin prospectus, includingMorgan Stanley(ticker: MS),JPMorgan Chase(JPM),KKR, Bank of America‘s (BAC) BofA Securities, andCitigroup(C).Founded in 2012, Applovin provides software used by mobile-game developers to grow their businesses.  Some 410 million people a day open apps that contain Applovin software, according to the company. Applovin also has a portfolio of more than 200 free-to-play mobile games with 32 million daily users.In 2018, KKRbought a minority stakein Applovin for $400 million, valuing Applovin at $2 billion at the time. Applovin in February acquired Adjust, a firm that helps mobile-app developers measure the performance of apps and prevent fraud, for $1 billion. KKR will own 67.4% of the company after the IPO, theprospectus said.With 357,955,309 shares outstanding, Applovin’s market capitalization could hit $30 billion.TuSimple also set terms for its IPO. The self-driving technology company could raise as much as $1.3 billion; it is offering nearly 34 million shares at $35 to $39 each. It will trade on the Nasdaq under the ticker TSP.Morgan Stanley(MS),Citigroup,and J.P. Morgan (JPM) are lead bookrunners on the deal.Founded in 2015, TuSimple is looking to transform the $800 billion trucking industry. The San Diego company, which has plants in Tucson, Shanghai, and Beijing, in addition to operations in Japan, is developing an autonomous freight network for long-haul, semi-trucks that it says will increase efficiency and safety on the road, while cutting operating costs.TuSimple develops software for the Level 4 self-driving, long-haul trucks, which can see up to 1,000 meters away, equivalent to 30 seconds of driving time. High-definition maps provide accuracy within five centimeters.The company is partnering withNavistar(NAV) to develop trucks for the North American market by 2024,its prospectus said. TuSimple has another partnership withVolkswagensubsidiary TRATON for trucks in Europe. Navistar, TRATON, and United Parcel Service (UPS) are all investors.TuSimple has raised $800 million in funding, including a $350 million round in November led by VectoIQ.BlackRock(BR), Fidelity Management & Research Co and Capital Group are in talks to buy up to 10.1 million TuSimple shares at the IPO price, the prospectus said.The company will have 212,263,328 shares outstanding, meaning TuSimple’s market cap could climb to $8.3 billion. TuSimple, however, is not profitable. Losses widened to $177.9 million in 2020 from $84.9 million in 2019. Revenue jumped nearly 160% to $1.8 million in 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSP":0.9,"APP":0.9,"VECT":0.9,"ALKT":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"RPHM":0.9,"KRT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609562263,"gmtCreate":1638310308677,"gmtModify":1638310309680,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609562263","repostId":"845006130","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":845006130,"gmtCreate":1636250240130,"gmtModify":1636250376229,"author":{"id":"4087627480157310","authorId":"4087627480157310","name":"Maxlim0510","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/832651abce902de95b3e46ec50b37694","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087627480157310","idStr":"4087627480157310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>Ok","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/APPS\">$Digital Turbine(APPS)$</a>Ok","text":"$Digital Turbine(APPS)$Ok","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9c9d25b33d32a5349bd852a6b791333","width":"750","height":"1947"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845006130","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":120174236,"gmtCreate":1624317560925,"gmtModify":1631887094118,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[666]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577937302028167\">@newwen</a>: Comment me pls","listText":"[666]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3577937302028167\">@newwen</a>: Comment me pls","text":"[666] [强] //@newwen: Comment me pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120174236","repostId":"1146982088","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146982088","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624259620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146982088?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146982088","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpect","content":"<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Powell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPowell Just Launched $2 Trillion In \"Heat-Seeking Missiles\": Zoltan Explains How The Fed Started The Next Repo Crisis<blockquote>鲍威尔刚刚发射了2万亿美元的“热寻导弹”：Zoltan解释美联储如何开启下一次回购危机</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.</p><p><blockquote>上周，在市场对美联储意外鹰派转向的震惊反应中，我们注意到有两个切实但不太引人注目的变化：美联储调整了两个关键的“管理”利率，将IOER和RRP利率都提高了5个基点（正如美国银行、摩根大通、莱特森、德意志银行和富国银行正确预测的那样，而花旗、牛津经济研究院、杰富瑞、瑞士信贷、渣打银行、蒙特利尔银行错误地预测利率不会变化），以推动有效联邦基金利率走高，远离即将到来的0%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31e3c93e7ae558cd9f2fdb7e4a2769f1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"377\">What does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP&nbsp; facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？正如Curvature Securities回购专家Scott Skyrm上周写道，“显然，美联储打算将隔夜利率提高到零以上，并耗尽RRP工具的现金。”不幸的是，最终结果将与美联储想要达到的目标完全相反。</blockquote></p><p> But what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.</p><p><blockquote>但这对于隔夜利率和建议零售价交易量到底意味着什么？正如Skyrm进一步指出的那样，IOER的上升应该会将每日联邦基金利率拉高5个基点，进而给回购GC带来上行压力。结合RRP增加5个基点，GC应该会大幅上涨5个基点，事实也确实如此。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8b99df7af1731b4bdcbcf072dcf39ce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\">The problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:</p><p><blockquote>正如Skyrm警告的那样，问题在于美联储的技术调整无助于缓解建议零售额：</blockquote></p><p>   When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.  Bottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"<i>the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>当市场回购利率为0%且RRP利率为零时，约5000亿美元进入RRP。好吧，如果市场回购利率和RRP利率都高出5个基点，就没有理由从RRP中提取现金。例如，如果GC利率升至0.05%，而RRP利率保持在零，投资者以更高利率投资的偏好将从RRP中移除现金。底线：由于市场利率和建议零售价均为0.05%，现金投资者确实没有经济动机将现金转移到回购市场。或者，正如我们总结的那样，“<i>美联储的利率变化可能对美联储的逆回购工具或创纪录的5000亿现金产生零影响。”</i></blockquote></p><p> In retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这是一种轻描淡写的说法，因为仅仅一天后，美联储逆回购工具的使用量就飙升了创纪录的50%，随着GSE的出现，飙升至惊人的7560亿美元（周五收盘价为7470亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fba18d7808300abc3bdf4ffaa3d5fb6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\">Needless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"<b>the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:</b><b><u>the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market</u></b><b>).\"</b></p><p><blockquote>不用说，淹没美联储的建议零售价工具和冲销准备金几乎不是美联储的本意，正如瑞士信贷自己的回购专家（前纽约联储工作人员）Zoltan Pozsar在他的事后分析中所写的那样，“<b>重新定价的建议零售价融资将很快成为银行系统的一个问题：</b><b><u>银行体系正在从资产约束（存款大量涌入，但除了美联储之外无处可贷）转变为负债约束（存款不断流失，除了货币市场之外无处可替代）</u></b><b>).\"</b></blockquote></p><p> What he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did not<i>reward</i>allocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.</p><p><blockquote>他的意思是，以前0.00%的RRP利率没有<i>奖励</i>分配惰性的超额准备金，但只是提供了一个存放它们的地方，现在美联储提供的收益率与数万亿票据提供的利率相比大幅上升，我们即将看到隔夜货币市场发生翻天覆地的变化，数万亿资本从传统投资重新分配到美联储的建议零售价。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fed<i><b>also</b></i>made a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “<b>yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>换句话说，正如Pozsar所说，“RRP设施开始对储备进行消毒……还会有更多储备。”而就在德意志银行向Pozsar解释为什么美联储的信号是一个r*政策错误时，美联储<i><b>也</b></i>犯了一个政策错误——只是这次是技术利率——冲销准备金，因为“当严格来说没有必要提高RRP设施的利率时，提高RRP设施的利率是一回事，而将其提高到‘过高’是另一回事——正如一位货币基金经理所说，”<b>昨天，我们一年甚至拿不到一个基点；以五个基点从最值得信赖的交易对手那里获得无尽的票据是梦想成真。”</b></blockquote></p><p> He's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),<b>5bps is too generous</b>, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo rate<b>will upset the state of \"singularity\"</b>and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –<b>at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>他是对的：虽然许多人可能认为0个基点太低，但目前这很难说是灾难性的（瑞士信贷是预测不会有管理加息的机构之一），<b>5bps太慷慨了</b>Pozsar警告说，新的逆回购利率<b>将颠覆“奇点”状态</b>“就像热寻的导弹一样，货币市场投资者转移了数千亿美元，急转弯90度，在零边界寻找哪怕一个基点的收益率——<b>在5个基点的利率下，货币基金有动力出售所有国库券并将现金存放在RRP设施中。”</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Indeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,<b>and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.</b>They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.<b>So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.</b></p><p><blockquote>事实上，如下图所示，6个月的票据收益率不到5个基点，<b>货币基金拥有超过2万亿美元的票据。</b>他们有卖出的动机，而其他人有买入的动机：那些存款一直被银行“容忍”到目前为止赚取零利息的机构有动力获得票据曲线提供的0-5个基点的范围。将现金以一个基点存入票据比零存款要好。<b>因此，准备金冲销开始了，因此o/n RRP工具从一个为大型银行一直在推走的存款提供利率下限的基本上被动的工具，变成了一个“吸走”银行决定保留的存款的主动工具。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf593f7b1d2d665f39384ed6a998d3bf\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"403\">To help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves with<i><b>too few</b></i>intraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助读者直观地了解正在发生的事情，瑞士信贷策略师建议进行以下“极端”的思想实验：目前银行的大部分“Covid-19”存款都进入了利率更好的票据市场。货币基金向目前将现金存放在银行的机构投资者出售票据，货币基金将票据交换为o/N RRP。（有点）简单地说，虽然美联储以前为银行提供了一个方便的存放准备金的地方，但现在它将积极耗尽准备金，以至于我们可能最终会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机，因为大多数金融机构突然发现自己与<i><b>太少</b></i>日内储备，迫使它们使用美联储的其他融资工具（如外汇掉期额度）来保持持续的偿付能力。</blockquote></p><p> This process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.</p><p><blockquote>这个过程不是一蹴而就的。需要几周时间才能观察到美联储准备金冲销的影响。</blockquote></p><p> And here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,<b>some bond-heavy banks cannot.</b>As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who can<i><b>not</b></i>handle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么这个问题与2019年的回购危机类似：很快我们就会发现，虽然现金充裕的银行可以应对资金外流，<b>一些债券密集型银行则不能。</b>因此，Zoltan预测，接下来“我们将注意到一些银行（那些能够<i><b>不</b></i>处理资金外流）正在从FHLB借入预付款，现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，因为RRP工具从它们那里抽走了准备金，美联储不得不重新启动外汇掉期额度来抵消。”</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line:<i><b>whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.</b></i></p><p><blockquote>底线：<i><b>尽管之前我们看到Libor-OIS崩溃，但这一关键资金利差将不得不从这里扩大，除非美联储再次将o/n RRP利率降低到以前的水平。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> Or, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,<b>in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"</b>While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,<b>the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.</b></p><p><blockquote>或者，正如Zoltan总结的那样，“要么是数量，要么是价格”——事实上，<b>2019年，美联储选择了价格而不是数量，这适得其反，并导致了回购危机，结束了美联储的加息周期，并开始了“非量化宽松”。</b>虽然美联储在2月份进行了自我救赎，但上周三，它在没有使其负债受到限制的情况下扩大了建议零售价的使用范围，因为它选择了数量而不是价格——这一点效果很好——<b>美联储将“无限”的数量变成了“免费的钱”，并开始冲销储备。</b></blockquote></p><p> Bottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"</p><p><blockquote>底线：“我们正在目睹最后手段交易商（DoLR）学习交易艺术，犯非受迫性错误——如果美联储通过定价过高的o/n RRP工具进行冲销，它必须准备好通过掉期增加流动性线……”</blockquote></p><p> Translation:&nbsp;<b>by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.</b></p><p><blockquote>翻译：<b>通过支付数万亿美元的准备金5个基点，美联储刚刚播下了下一场流动性危机的种子。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powell-just-launched-2-trillion-heat-seeking-missiles-zoltan-explains-how-fed-started-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146982088","content_text":"Last week, amid thefire and brimstone surroundingthe market's shocked response to the Fed's unexpected hawkish pivot, we noted that there were two tangible, if less noted changes: the Fed adjusted the two key \"administered\" rates, raising both the IOER and RRP rates by 5 basis points (as correctly predicted by Bank of America, JPMorgan, Wrightson, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo while Citi, Oxford Economics, Jefferies, Credit Suisse, Standard Chartered, BMO were wrong in predicting no rate change), in an effort to push the Effective Fed Funds rate higher and away from its imminent rendezvous with 0%.\nWhat does this mean? As Curvature Securities repo guru,Scott Skyrm wrote last week, \"clearly the Fed intends to move overnight rates above zero and drain the RRP  facility of cash.\" Unfortunately, the end result would be precisely the opposite of what the Fed had wanted to achieve.\nBut what does this really mean for overnight rates and RRP volume? As Skyrm further noted, the increase in the IOER should pull the daily fed funds rate 5 basis points higher and, in turn, put upward pressure on Repo GC. Combined with the 5 basis point increase in RRP, GC should move a solid 5 basis points higher, which it has.\nThe problem, as Skyrm warned, is that the Fed's technical adjustment would do nothing to ease the RRP volume:\n\n When market Repo rates were at 0% and the RRP rate was at zero, ~$500 billion went into the RRP. Well, if both market Repo rates and the RRP rate are 5 basis points higher, there's no reason to pull cash out of the RRP. For example, if GC rates moved to .05% and the RRP rate stayed at zero, investor preferences to invest at a higher rate would remove cash from the RRP.\n\nBottom line: with both market rates and RRP at .05%, there's really no economic incentive for cash investors to move cash to the Repo market. Or, as we summarized, \"the Fed's rate change may have zero impact on the Fed's reverse repo facility, or the record half a trillion in cash parked there.\"\nIn retrospect, boy was that an understatement, because just one day later the already record usage of the Fed's Reverse Repo facility spiked by a record 50%, exploding to a staggering $756 billion (it closed Friday at $747 billion) as the GSEs.\nNeedless to say, flooding the Fed's RRP facility and sterilizing reserves is hardly what the Fed had intended, and as Credit Suisse's own repo guru (and former NY Fed staffer) Zoltan Pozsar wrote in his post-mortem, \"the re-priced RRP facility will become a problem for the banking system fast:the banking system is going from being asset constrained (deposits flooding in, but nowhere to lend them but to the Fed), to being liability constrained (deposits slipping away and nowhere to replace them but in the money market).\"\nWhat he means by that is that whereas previously the RRP rate of 0.00% did notrewardallocation of inert, excess reserves but merely provided a place to park them, now that the Fed is providing a generous yield pick up compared to rates offered by trillions in Bills, we are about to see a sea-change in the overnight, money-market, as trillions in capital reallocate away from traditional investments and into the the Fed's RRP.\nIn other words, as Pozsar puts it, \"the RRP facility started to sterilize reserves... with more to come.\" And just as Deutsche Bank explained why the Fed's signaling was an r* policy error, to Pozsar, the Fedalsomade a policy error - only this time with its technical rates - by steriling reserves because \"it’s one thing to raise the rate on the RRP facility when an increase was not strictly speaking necessary, and it’s another to raise it “unduly” high – as one money fund manager put it, “yesterday we could not even get a basis points a year; to get endless paper at five basis points from the most trusted counterparty is a dream come true.\"\nHe's right: while 0bps may have been viewed by many as too low, it was hardly catastrophic for now (Credit Suisse was one of those predicting no administered rate hike),5bps is too generous, according to Pozsar who warns that the new reverse repo ratewill upset the state of \"singularity\"and \"like heat-seeking missiles, money market investors move hundreds of billions, making sharp, 90º turns hunting for even a basis point of yield at the zero bound –at 5 bps, money funds have an incentive to trade out of all their Treasury bills and park cash at the RRP facility.\"\nIndeed, as shown below, bills yield less than 5 bps out to 6 months,and money funds have over $2 trillion of bills.They got an the incentive to sell, while others have the incentive to buy: institutions whose deposits have been “tolerated” by banks until now earning zero interest have an incentive to harvest the 0-5 bps range the bill curve has to offer. Putting your cash at a basis point in bills is better than deposits at zero.So the sterilization of reserves begins, and so the o/n RRP facility turns from a largely passive tool that provided an interest rate floor to the deposits that large banks have been pushing away, into an active tool that \"sucks\" the deposits away that banks decided to retain.\nTo help readers visualize what is going on, the Credit Suisse strategist suggest the following \"extreme\" thought experiment: most of the “Covid-19” deposits currently with banks go into the bill market where rates are better. Money funds sell bills to institutional investors that currently keep their cash at banks, and money funds swap bills for o/n RRPs. Said (somewhat) simply, while previously the Fed provided banks with a convenient place to park reserves, it now will actively drain reserves to the point where we may end up with another 2019-style repo crisis, as most financial institutions suddenly find themsleves withtoo fewintraday reserves, forcing them to use the Fed's other funding facilities (such as FX swap lines) to remain consistently solvent.\nThis process is not overnight. It will take a few weeks to observe the fallout from the Fed's reserve sterilization.\nAnd here is why the problem is similar to the repo crisis of 2019: soon we will find that while cash-rich banks can handle the outflows,some bond-heavy banks cannot.As a result, Zoltan predicts that next \"we will notice that some banks (those who cannothandle outflows) are borrowing advances from FHLBs, and cash-rich banks stop lending in the FX swap market as the RRP facility pulled reserves away from them and the Fed has to re-start the FX swap lines to offset.\"\nBottom line:whereas previously we saw Libor-OIS collapse, this key funding spread will have to widen from here, unless the Fed lowers the o/n RRP rate again back to where it was before.\nOr, as Zoltan summarizes, \"It’s either quantities or prices\" - indeed,in 2019 the Fed chose prices over quantities, which backfired, and led to the repo crisis which ended the Fed's hiking cycle and started \"NOT QE.\"While the Fed redeemed itself in February, when it expanded the usage of the RRP without making it liability-constrained as it chose quantities over prices - which worked well - last Wednesday,the Fed turned “unlimited” quantities into “money for free” and started to sterilize reserves.\nBottom line: \"we are witnessing the dealer of last resort (DoLR) learning the art of dealing, making unforced errors – if the Fed sterilizes with an overpriced o/n RRP facility, it has to be ready to add liquidity via the swap lines…\"\nTranslation: by paying trillions in reserves 5bps, the Fed just planted the seeds of the next liquidity crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162802870,"gmtCreate":1624053525690,"gmtModify":1631887094154,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162802870","repostId":"1168762020","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168762020","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623988654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168762020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168762020","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithogra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: The Market Could Be Underestimating Its Potential<blockquote>ASML：市场可能低估了其潜力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.</li>  <li>DUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.</li>  <li>ASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.</li>  <li>A true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.</li>  <li>Existing shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44b5f81c309842f14fe1adffe3d6c9ca\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"432\"><span>MACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。</li><li>预计到2025年，DUV光刻将以8.4%的CAGR增长，而EUV光刻预计到2027年将以12%的CAGR增长。</li><li>ASML在EUV领域占据垄断地位，在DUV领域面临非常有限的竞争，这两个平台对半导体制造工艺绝对至关重要。</li><li>作为真正的创新者，ASML拥有出色的地位和增长前景，但股市早已认识到其潜力。</li><li>现有股东在享受这一旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，几乎没有安全边际，他们可能会通过平均成本法涉足水，以从推动ASML的强劲顺风中受益。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>宏观照片/iStock来自Getty Images投资论文</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.</p><p><blockquote>ASML Holding(ASML)在其最先进的技术平台EUV光刻方面拥有无与伦比的市场地位，看不到竞争对手。同样，它在DUV内部面临的竞争非常有限，这两个平台对半导体制造都至关重要。半导体行业内家喻户晓的品牌属于制造商，但ASML等机械供应商通过广泛的技术知识和强大的工艺知识拥有非常强大的护城河，如果所有潜在竞争对手试图竞争，他们将落后数年。</blockquote></p><p> It's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.</p><p><blockquote>很难想象有比这更好的竞争形势了，尤其是在一个预计未来许多年增长将远高于总体GDP的行业运营时。然而，市场早已认识到ASML的突出潜力和潜力之旅，但它仍然可能低估了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> I recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于如何不要拥有太多半导体敞口的文章。在分解了半导体制造的价值链后，我在评论区收到了许多关于ASML的问题，并决定进行跟进。我选择ASML是因为其独特的市场地位和潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Personally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.</p><p><blockquote>就我个人而言，我通过持有德州仪器(TXN)和博通公司(AVGO)的股票接触到了半导体价值链的制造水平，但进一步深入价值链，投资者可以被允许以更广泛的方式投资该行业，因为机械和软件供应商可以更广泛地接触大多数制造商，这使得它非常有趣，因为你可以采用“我真的不介意谁赢，只要他们在比赛”的口号。因此，价值链上游的潜在风险引起了极大的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来几年的市场和价值驱动因素</b></blockquote></p><p> For ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).</p><p><blockquote>对于ASML的追随者来说，这一点并不奇怪，但ASML在将推动其未来十年收入的产品中占据主导地位，即EUV（极紫外光刻）技术。我个人的看法是，在任何行业的任何地方都很难找到一家处于类似优势竞争地位的公司。ASML提供光刻设备，这是一种通过光源打印芯片特征的艺术，有多种光谱，其中最先进的是EUV，这是DUV（深紫外光刻）的下一代。对于DUV来说，尽管ASML拥有超过85%的巨大市场份额，但仍有竞争对手。DUV和EUV之间的区别在于，EUV的工作波长几乎比DUV小15倍（13.5 nm与193nm相比）。</blockquote></p><p> Actually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，5nm和即将到来的3nm等前沿芯片的半导体制造商非常依赖EUV机器。没有它，这根本不可能。对于那些能够制造这些机器的人来说，这听起来很划算，但只有一家公司能够做到这一点，那就是ASML。对于每一代新的EUV机器，其产量都会变得更好，吞吐量更高，停机问题也会减少，这意味着ASML实际上领先于任何试图接受挑战并挑战其主导地位的人。</blockquote></p><p> This is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个一切都与流程知识有关的行业。台积电(TSM)能够生产5纳米芯片，因为它能够生产7纳米芯片，它将能够生产3纳米芯片，因为它可以生产5纳米芯片，并且已经这样做了一百万次，这也是为什么它对英特尔公司如此有害。(INTC)不得不承认其在7纳米技术方面持续存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.</p><p><blockquote>很简单，如果你做不到5纳米，就没有3纳米，我在上一篇文章中也讨论过。ASML也是如此，因为如果竞争对手进入EUV领域，他们将落后ASML很多年，因为他们将面临十多年前困扰ASML的EUV早期的相同问题。我附上了他们最近一次投资者日的一些插图，这次投资者日发生在2018年11月，下一次投资者日将于2021年9月举行。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edaa6b5a77f99726bbae61b032b9c208\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.</p><p><blockquote>上图清楚地说明了ASML在其EUV生命周期中获得的工艺知识。这也转化为每一代更好的EUV机器，其生产率的提高也证明了这一点。同样，考虑到竞争对手采用EUV技术需要多少时间和资金，我无法想象对一家公司来说还有比这更有利的竞争形势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85913766aea721e218e976e4f73349e5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。16.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&amp;D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&amp;D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.</p><p><blockquote>半导体制造是一项残酷的业务，根据摩尔定律，大量的研发支出（ASML花费了60亿欧元的研发支出来发明EUV）推动芯片改进，这意味着ASML已经在研究下一代技术，称为高NA-EUV。高NA-EUV还有一段时间，下面的时间表略显过时，但其技术将显着改善EUV平台，并在本十年后为行业提供动力。开发技术、提高产量和减少停机时间需要时间，但EUV在市场扩张和利润率提高方面仍有大量机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7709f0f76b1619a31b32fc3330134005\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。21.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> ASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.</p><p><blockquote>ASML本身已经通过面向买方的附加产品和面向供应商的上游成本降低，在优化利润率方面制定了预期路径，为公司创造了一个最佳点，有效地努力实现与其更成熟的DUV平台相同的盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/809661531ad423f613fb44c26e0b3352\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，EUV产品和商机，第14页。25.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>如果这还不够好，那么再加上这样一个事实，即半导体行业总体预计至少在2028年之前将超过总体GDP，复合年增长率为8.6%。台积电、英特尔和三星电子公司（场外交易代码：SSNLF）最近的通讯显示了该行业的实力和增长潜力，他们预计未来十年的总资本支出将超过2000亿美元，其中很大一部分将在未来几年内实现。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.</p><p><blockquote>从上图中可以看出，ASML希望通过升级来增加客户价值，他们的DUV路线图可以作为一个例子，说明EUV的收入基础如何在未来几年扩大，就像DUV的情况一样。该公司已标记为安装基础管理。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8ef7940a4b888c50159e5b9db4c0634\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\"><span>ASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2018年ASML投资者日，DUV产品和商机，第14页。10.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.</p><p><blockquote>当然，总有可能有一个强有力的竞争者进入市场，试图挑战ASML，但公司在该技术处于起步阶段时就试图进入该领域，但已经放弃了，这意味着主要威胁将是一种新的光刻技术的出现，对EUV的影响就像EUV对DUV所做的那样。可能当然，很可能，没那么多。为了强调这一点，我插入了ASML自己对光刻如何发挥作用的描述中的一段话。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   “  <i>Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.</i>”  <i>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</i>  <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32572971943844c4e71ddfc77559d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"547\"><span>ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote>“<i>光刻技术是制造更强大、更快、更便宜芯片的驱动力。随着半导体特征尺寸的缩小，芯片的制造变得越来越复杂，而以合适的成本大规模生产的必要性仍然存在。我们的整体光刻产品组合通过将光刻系统与计算建模以及计量和检测解决方案集成，有助于优化生产并实现可承受的收缩。光刻系统本质上是投影系统。光通过将被打印的图案的蓝图(称为“掩模”或“掩模”)投射。随着图案被编码在光中，系统的光学器件收缩并将图案聚焦到光敏硅晶片上。在打印图案之后，系统稍微移动晶片并在晶片上进行另一次复制。重复该过程，直到晶片被图案覆盖，完成晶片的一层芯片。为了制造整个微芯片，该过程一层又一层地重复，堆叠图案以创建集成电路(IC)。最简单的芯片大约有10层，而最复杂的芯片可以有超过150层。要打印的特征尺寸因层而异，这意味着不同类型的光刻系统用于不同的层——我们最新一代的EUV系统用于具有最小特征的最关键层，而ArF、KrF和i-line DUV系统用于具有较大特征的不太关键层。</i>”<i>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</i><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2020年年度报告，光刻的作用，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.</p><p><blockquote>我相信大多数投资者都熟悉确认偏差，如果他们不熟悉，他们应该拿本书自学。通读这一部分后，考虑到我对ASML的地位和竞争力的强烈支持，我作为作者很容易受到确认偏见的困扰。然而，我一直在努力找出可能严重影响ASML的情况，老实说，我找不到。当然，也存在与地缘政治紧张局势相关的风险，这在2016年的股价中也有所体现，目前整个行业正在发生的供应链中断的风险以及人才竞争。该公司自己在其2020年年度报告第21页中提到了这些问题，没有一个行业没有潜在风险。</blockquote></p><p> So, to sum it all up:</p><p><blockquote>所以，总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>ASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight</li>  <li>EUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade</li>  <li>The semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)</li>  <li>Strong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings</li>  <li>The path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips</li>  <li>ASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing</li> </ul> Sounds pretty good to me.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>ASML开创了EUV光刻，看不到竞争对手</li><li>EUV将使摩尔定律得以延续，并将在本十年为ASML及其客户带来长期价值</li><li>预计到2028年，半导体行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%，超过总体GDP，ASML是制造商（代工厂）的主要供应商</li><li>强劲的行业资本支出推动了对ASML产品的需求</li><li>在装机基础管理、利润率提高以及制造商对领先芯片的EUV机械的依赖方面扩大EUV业务的前进道路</li><li>ASML是领先芯片制造的关键参与者</li></ul>对我来说听起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> The Financial Performance and Development</p><p><blockquote>财务表现及发展</blockquote></p><p> ASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，ASML自身表现良好。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Strong revenue growth</li>  <li>Strong margin expansion</li>  <li>Strong improvement in free cash flow</li>  <li>Impressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&amp;D spend and IP portfolio</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7900753b1857ac9ad6fc705b9baad563\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"><span>Annual Report 2020, p 7.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入增长强劲</li><li>利润率强劲扩张</li><li>自由现金流强劲改善</li><li>令人印象深刻的运营改进通过增加研发支出和知识产权组合来加强其护城河</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2020年年度报告，第7页。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.</p><p><blockquote>随后是2021年第一季度的强劲表现，营收和利润都令人垂涎。然而，对于2021年第二季度的业绩，他们预计收入扩张略低，为41亿欧元，毛利率为49%，仍高于长期平均水平，但更接近长期平均水平。然而，不可否认的是，该公司在当前环境下蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ea4dedde41a918bd9e1fd307a9531f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。14.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> An interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.</p><p><blockquote>一个有趣的细节是安装库管理中的开发，如本文前面所述。该公司正在兑现其承诺，该领域的强劲发展从2019年到2020年同比增长29%，远远超过18%的总增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6966dcaf747d226d5de580187d4d3ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\"><span>ASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ASML 2021年第一季度，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.</p><p><blockquote>然而，更有趣的问题是，市场估计是否低估了ASML的潜力。这是一个非常困难的问题，但如果我们看一看，我个人至少看到了这种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> Are Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?</p><p><blockquote>分析师的一致估计是低估了还是高估了ASML的潜力？</blockquote></p><p> ASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师对ASML的报道很好，他们提供了到2028年的预测，但一旦我们超过2025年，报道范围就会减弱，这是最后一年有超过一名分析师报道。目前的估计显示，从2020年到2028年，收入CAGR发展为11.1%，但如果我们去掉2021年的强劲增长，CAGR为6.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9adf4cebbce28dc7433186b5bd0827e8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Author's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者自己的创作，来源寻求阿尔法。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Remember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，预计到2028年，整个行业的复合年增长率将达到8.6%。这些都是带有很大不确定性的估计，没有人能够可靠地预测未来。然而，值得注意的是，如果不考虑2020年至2021年的大幅增长，ASML的收入预期将低于整个行业。目前预计2026年至2028年的平均收入增长率为3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一些支持ASML前景可能更加积极的论点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>General semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.</li>  <li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.</li>  <li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.</li>  <li>ASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.</li>  <li>ASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.</li>  <li>ASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.</li>  <li>As the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.</li> </ul> This is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>通用半导体行业CAGR 2020-2028年预测为8.6%。</li><li>DUV CAGR 2020-2025预测为8.4%，仍然是ASML最大的产品类别。</li><li>EUV CAGR 2020-2027年预测为12%。</li><li>ASML是通过技术进步解决芯片短缺的关键参与者，其机器定义了我们日常生活中使用的每一个电子设备的性能。</li><li>ASML在通过“安装基础管理”扩大其机械生态系统的计划方面取得了进展，使总目标市场增加了两位数以上的百分比，因为2018年的销售额占安装基础管理的20%，2025年的估计为50%。</li><li>ASML在DUV沉浸式细分市场占据主导地位，这是DUV利润率较高的部分，因为其在DUV的两个唯一竞争对手尼康和佳能缺乏手段和能力。</li><li>随着市场向EUV过渡，对DUV的需求将随之而来，因为芯片堆叠工艺通过其制造从这两种系统中受益。</li></ul>这还没有提到潜在的价格上涨可能会渗透到其客户身上，因为他们可能会争夺ASML的产能，因为ASML在DUV中占据85%的强大市场地位以及在EUV中的垄断地位，同时也在中期将高NA-EUV推向市场。这十年。如今，客户为EUV机器支付大约1.3-1.5亿美元，而DUV机器的价格约为1亿美元。ASML超额交付的最大障碍是其目前交付EUV系统的能力限制，每年交付EUV系统的能力限制在40到50个系统之间，随着多年来需求的增加，该公司当然会努力扩大这一能力限制。另一方面，随着ASML努力扩大产能，这也可能成为价格上涨的驱动力。</blockquote></p><p> I will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.</p><p><blockquote>我不会试图构建一个更大胆的收入指引，因为这是一个廉价的机会，坦率地说，没有人有能力准确预测当前的预期是否成立，或者它们是否过于积极或消极。我只想强调，考虑到正在发生的一切以及ASML的市场地位，我认为该公司的表现比目前预期的更好并不是不合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.</p><p><blockquote>该股价距离52周高点仅一英寸，自2020年初以来一直在上涨，自2020年10月以来真正起飞，此后已翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/472c0e2f540c1d4ee2a7bbaec09379c0\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"453\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Market cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.</p><p><blockquote>尽管每股收益和收入强劲改善，但所有其他参数都出现了爆炸式增长，市盈率也大幅扩大。股市早已认识到ASML的故事和潜力，华尔街分析师目前的目标是每股722美元。公平地说，如果分析师的预测是正确的，就没有安全边际。有趣的是，在提供价格目标的30名分析师中，非常看涨的比例自2016年以来从未如此之高，其中56%的分析师表示非常看涨。在相信此类言论时保持谨慎是一种心理锻炼，尤其是因为该股在过去几年中只知道一个方向——向上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.</p><p><blockquote>如下图所示，当考虑到五年的时间范围时，典型比率扩张的重要性是显而易见的。市盈率和市盈率均大幅上涨，分别为55和15.7。然而，与三年前相比，该公司的处境截然不同。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c691d4662a793b5de150add67a3a4e11\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Revenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长速度明显快于以前，毛利率和自由现金流也有所改善。由于这一积极的发展，ASML还通过2021年100亿欧元的股票回购计划向股东返还了大量资本，不幸的是，这仅相当于当前流通量减少了0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7341584d3ba7b1db51e1eef3c4bdaccd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"436\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.</p><p><blockquote>对ASML未来几年的预测也清楚地表明了人们对ASML未来的坚定信心，由于该公司强大的投资组合和市场主导地位，近年来该预测一直在稳步攀升。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b262aeeb8d75114dbc3e45bf9464c830\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> With all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，我相信目前的股东在持有现有股份方面做得很好，因为这家公司前景广阔。去年我一直在关注ASML，我非常难过地说，我从未抽出时间仔细研究过它，只是从远处看了看，并得出结论，该股可能会出现良好的回调在某一点上。我一点也不知道。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）的名言，“投资者为调整做准备或试图预测调整而损失的资金远远多于调整本身损失的资金”，对于像我这样没有及时采取行动的人来说也是如此。我仍然对ASML的前景和潜在旅程非常着迷，但以目前的价格，我仍然对前景和缺乏安全边际犹豫不决。</blockquote></p><p> There is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>ASML的估值有很大的增长潜力，如果要加上当前的水平，我会说美元成本平均法对于当前价格来说是一种谨慎的策略，同时保留备份的可能性如果我们在2021年底之前看到回调，卡车将满载。</blockquote></p><p> As can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.</p><p><blockquote>从下面可以看出，ASML每年经历一两次10%的挫折并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad90b51964870f5475b596fe16f63317\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> ASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>ASML在其两个主要产品DUV和EUV光刻中占据主导地位。它的市场得到了令人难以置信的强劲推动力的支持，因为我们所有的小工具、电动汽车、5G、数据中心、云服务器等。严重依赖ASML提供的技术平台。一家真正的创新者，看不到真正的竞争，为预计到2028年复合年增长率为8.6%的行业提供机械和工具，其DUV和EUV平台的增长可能会更强劲，同时预计利润率也会扩大。</blockquote></p><p> There is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.</p><p><blockquote>ASML没什么不好说的，但不幸的是，股市早已认识到其惊人的故事和潜力。在如此强劲的前景下，现有股东在持有股票并享受未来的旅程方面做得很好，但对于潜在股东来说，随着市值的大幅扩大，似乎还有一点安全边际。最近，该股的交易价格距离52周高点仅一英寸。</blockquote></p><p> As Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.</p><p><blockquote>正如彼得·林奇（Peter Lynch）所说，“投资者准备调整或试图预测调整所损失的资金远远超过调整本身所损失的资金。”当我从远处看ASML很长一段时间时，我已经成为了这个谬论的受害者。尽管最近市值和市盈率有所扩大，但目前的估计可能低估了ASML的真正潜力，但任何延长到未来5-10年的预测都带有极大的不确定性和猜测。正如我所展示的，ASML的股价每年容易出现一到两次挫折，这使得平均成本法可以作为一种方法来获得该公司的风险敞口，并在此过程中慢慢建立头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435422-asml-market-could-be-underestimating-its-potential","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168762020","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Semiconductor sector is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028.\nDUV lithography is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8.4% through 2025 with EUV lithography forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 12% through 2027.\nASML holds a monopoly within EUV and faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms absolutely vital for the semiconductor manufacturing process.\nA true innovator, ASML commands an outstanding position and growth outlook but the stock market has long since recognized the potential.\nExisting shareholders do well for themselves in just enjoying the ride, but there is little margin of safety left for prospective shareholders who might dip their toes into the water through dollar-cost averaging to benefit from the strong tailwinds powering ASML.\n\nMACRO PHOTO/iStock via Getty ImagesInvestment Thesis\nASML Holding (ASML) commands a market position like no one else with not a competitor in sight for its most advanced technological platform, EUV lithography. Similarly, it faces very limited competition within DUV, both platforms vital for semiconductor manufacturing. The household names within the semiconductor industry belong to the manufacturers, but the machinery providers, such as ASML, command very strong moats through extensive technological knowledge and strong process knowledge leaving all potential competitors years behind if they should ever try to compete.\nIt's hard to think of a better competitive situation, especially when operating in a sector forecasted to grow well above general GDP for many years to come. However, the market has long since recognized ASML's outstanding potential and potential journey, but still, it could be underestimating the potential.\nIntroduction\nI recently wrote an article concerning how youcan’t own too much semiconductor exposure. Having decomposed the value chain for semiconductor manufacturing, I received a number of questions concerning ASML in the comment sections and decided to conduct this follow-up. I’ve selected ASML due to its unique marketplace position and potential.\nPersonally I have exposure to the manufacturing level of the semiconductor value chain through shares in both Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), but venturing further back into the value chain, and investors can be allowed to invest in a broader manner into the industry, as the suppliers of machinery and software obtain a broader exposure to most of the manufacturers making it immensely interesting as you can adopt the mantra of “I don’t really mind who wins, as long as they are racing”. As such, potential exposure upstream in the value chain carries great interest.\nThe Marketplace and Value Drivers For Years To Come\nFor ASML followers it’s no surprise at this point, but ASML is dominant within the product offering that will drive its revenue for the coming decade, EUV (Extreme ultraviolet lithography) technology. My personal take is that it is hard to find a company in a similarly advantageous competitive position anywhere in any industry. ASML provides equipment for lithography, the art of printing the chip features via light sources, in several light spectrums with its most advanced being EUV which is the next-gen to DUV (deep ultraviolet lithography). For DUV there are competitors albeit ASML has a massive market share above 85%. The difference between DUV and EUV is that EUV operates at a light wavelength almost 15 times smaller than DUV (13.5nm compared to 193nm).\nActually, the semiconductor manufacturers for the leading edge chips such as 5nm and soon to be 3nm are deeply dependent on the EUV machinery. Without it, it simply wouldn’t be possible. That sounds like a pretty good bargain for those who can manufacture these machines, but there is only one company that is able to do it, and that is ASML. For every generation of new EUV machinery, its yield becomes better with higher throughput and reduced downtime issues, meaning that ASML is effectively lightyears ahead of anyone who would try to pick up the gauntlet and challenge their dominant position.\nThis is an industry where everything is about process knowledge. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is able to produce 5nm chips because it was able to produce 7nm, and it will be able to produce 3nm because it can produce 5nm and has done that a million times over which is also why it was so detrimental to Intel Corp (INTC) that it had to acknowledge its persistent issues with the 7nm technology.\nQuite simply, there is no 3nm if you can’t do the 5nm, as also discussed in my previous article. Same goes for ASML as a competitor would be years and years behind ASML if they entered the EUV space as they would struggle with the same issues that have plagued ASML in its early days of EUV more than a decade ago. I’ve included a number of illustrations from their most recent investor day which took place in November 2018, with the next one to take place in September 2021.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 6.\nThe picture above clearly illustrates the process knowledge having been picked up by ASML throughout its EUV lifetime. This has also translated into better EUV machinery for each new generation as also evident by its productivity improvements. Again, I can’t imagine a more favourable competitive situation for a company, given how much time and capital it would require for a competitor to adopt the EUV technology.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 16.\nSemiconductor manufacturing is a cutthroat business with heavy R&D spend (it took ASML €6 billion in R&D spend to invent EUV) driving chip improvements according to Moore’s law, meaning that ASML is already working on the next-gen technology, referred to as High NA-EUV. High NA-EUV is still some time away, with the timeline below being slightly outdated, but its technology will significantly improve the EUV platform and power the industry beyond this decade. It takes time to develop the technology, improve yield and reduce downtime, but there is still plenty of opportunities for EUV in terms of marketplace expansion and margin improvement.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 21.\nASML itself has laid out the expected path in terms of optimised margins through both add-ons facing the buyer side and upstream cost reductions facing their suppliers creating a sweet spot for the company effectively striving to achieve the same profitability profile as for its more mature DUV platform.\nASML Investor Day 2018, EUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 25.\nIf that wasn’t good enough, then add the fact that the semiconductor industry in general is expected to outpace general GDP for at least until 2028 with a CAGR of 8.6%. Recentcommunicationsby Taiwan Semiconductor, Intel and Samsung Electronics Company (OTC:SSNLF) shows the strength and growth potential for the sector with their combined CAPEX expectations going beyond $200 billion for the coming decade, with a significant chunk of that within the coming years.\nAs can be seen in the illustration above, ASML expects increased customer value through upgrades, with their roadmap for DUV serving as an example in terms of how the revenue base could expand over the coming years for EUV as is the case for DUV via what the company has labelled installed base management.\nASML Investor Day 2018, DUV Products and Business Opportunity, p. 10.\nThere is of course always the possibility of a serious contender entering the marketplace in order to try and challenge ASML, but companies have tried to enter the space when the technology was in its infancy having given up, meaning the prime threat would be the emergence of a new lithography technology arriving and doing to EUV what EUV did to DUV. Possible sure, likely, not so much. Just to hammer down the point, I’ve inserted a paragraph from ASML’s own description of how lithography plays its role.\n\n “\n Lithography is a driving force in the creation of more powerful, faster and cheaper chips. The manufacturing of chips becomes increasingly complex as semiconductor feature sizes shrink, while the imperative to mass produce at the right cost remains. Our holistic lithography product portfolio helps to optimize production and enable affordable shrink by integrating lithography systems with computational modeling, as well as metrology and inspection solutions. A lithography system is essentially a projection system. Light is projected through a blueprint of the pattern that will be printed (known as a ‘mask’ or ‘reticle’). With the pattern encoded in the light, the system’s optics shrink and focus the pattern onto a photosensitive silicon wafer. After the pattern is printed, the system moves the wafer slightly and makes another copy on the wafer. This process is repeated until the wafer is covered in patterns, completing one layer of the wafer’s chips. To make an entire microchip, this process is repeated layer after layer, stacking the patterns to create an integrated circuit (IC). The simplest chips have around 10 layers, while the most complex can have over 150 layers. The size of the features to be printed varies depending on the layer, which means that different types of lithography systems are used for different layers – our latest-generation EUV systems for the most critical layers with the smallest features to ArF, KrF, and i-line DUV systems for less critical layers with larger features.”\n ASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\n\nASML Annual Report 2020, The Role Of Lithography, p. 12.\nI believe most investors are familiar with confirmation bias, and if they aren’t, they should grab a book and educate themselves. Having read through this section, it can easily sound as if I as the author is suffering from confirmation bias given how strongly I’ve advocated for ASML’s position and competitive power. However, I’ve striven towards identifying situations that could severely impact ASML and being honest I can’t find it. There are of course the risks associated with geopolitical tension, which also showed itself in the stock price back in 2016, the risk of supply chain disruption as is currently transpiring across the industry and competition for talent. These are touched upon by the company itself in their annual report 2020 p. 21 and no industry comes without potential risks.\nSo, to sum it all up:\n\nASML has pioneered EUV lithography, with no competitors in sight\nEUV will enable the continuation of Moore’s Law and will drive long term value for ASML and its customers well into this decade\nThe semiconductor sector forecasted to grow at CAGR of 8.6% through 2028, outpacing general GDP with ASML being a key supplier to the manufacturers (foundries)\nStrong industry CAPEX driving demand for ASML offerings\nThe path forward for expanding EUV business in terms of installed base management, margins improvement and manufacturer dependency on EUV machinery for leading edge chips\nASML is a crucial player for leading edge chip manufacturing\n\nSounds pretty good to me.\nThe Financial Performance and Development\nASML is doing well for itself as evident by the illustration below.\n\nStrong revenue growth\nStrong margin expansion\nStrong improvement in free cash flow\nImpressive operational improvements strengthening its moat through increased R&D spend and IP portfolio\n\nAnnual Report 2020, p 7.\nThis was followed by a strong Q1-2021 performance with mouth-watering financials on both top and bottom line. However, for their Q2-2021 performance they are guiding for slightly lower revenue expansion at €4.1 billion with a gross margin of 49%, which is still above the long term average but closer to it. There is however no denying that the company is thriving in the current environment.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 14.\nAn interesting detail is the development within the installed base management as illustrated earlier in the article. The company is delivering on its promise with a strong development within this segment growing 29% YoY from 2019 to 2020, well beyond the total growth of 18%.\nASML 2021 First-Quarter, p. 8.\nThe more interesting question however is whether the market estimates are underestimating the potential for ASML. An immensely hard question, but if we give it a look, I personally at least see the possibility of that being the case.\nAre Analyst Consensus Estimates Under- or Over-Estimating ASML’s Potential?\nASML is well-covered by analysts offering estimates all the way through 2028, but with coverage waning once we go beyond 2025 which is the last year covered by more than one analyst. The current estimates show a revenue CAGR development of 11.1% from 2020 to 2028, but if we remove 2021, which shows stellar growth, the CAGR is 6.5%.\nAuthor's Own Creation, Source Seeking Alpha.\nRemember the sector as a whole is forecasted to exhibit growth at a CAGR of 8.6% through 2028. These are all estimates which carry great uncertainty with no one able to reliably predict the future. However, it is worth noticing that revenue estimates for ASML are below the sector as a whole if the massive jump from 2020 to 2021 is left out of the equation. Average revenue growth from 2026 to 2028 is currently estimated to be 3.5%.\nConsidering some of the arguments in favour of why ASML’s outlook could be even more positive:\n\nGeneral semiconductor industry CAGR 2020-2028 forecasted at 8.6%.\nDUV CAGR 2020-2025forecastedat 8.4%, it is still ASML’s largest product category.\nEUV CAGR 2020-2027forecastedat 12%.\nASML is a linchpin player to solve chip shortage through technology advancement and its machines define the performance of every electrical gadget we utilise in our daily lives.\nASML shows progress in its plan to widen the ecosystem for its machinery through \"Installed Base Management\" increasing the total addressable market by upwards of double digits percentage as 2018 sales were 20% installed base management and 2025 estimate is 50%.\nASML dominates the DUV immersion segment, the part of DUV with high margins as its two solecompetitorsin DUV, Nikon and Canon lack the means and capabilities.\nAs the market transitions to EUV, the demand for DUV willfollowas the chip stacking process benefits from both systems through its manufacturing.\n\nThis is without mentioning the potential price increases that could trickle down towards its customers as they could be fighting over ASML’s capacity due to its strong market position of 85% in DUV and monopoly within EUV while also bringing High NA-EUV to market by mid of this decade. Customers today pay roughly $130-150 million for EUV machines, while DUV machines come in at around $100 million. The largest hindrance to ASML overdelivering is its current capacity constraint in terms of ability to deliver EUV systems which is capped somewhere between 40 and 50 systems a year, with the company of course striving to expand that capacity constraint as demand builds up over the years. On the other hand, this could also be a driver for price increases as ASML strives to expand capacity.\nI will not try to construct an even bolder revenue guidance as it’s a cheap shot and frankly, no one has the capacity to accurately forecast if the current expectations will stand or whether they are too positive or negative. I just want to highlight that with everything going on and ASML’s market position in mind, I don’t consider it unreasonable that the company will do even better than currently anticipated.\nValuation\nThe stock price is an inch away from its 52-week high and has been on a tear since the beginning of 2020, really taking off since October 2020 from which it has doubled since.\nData by YCharts\nMarket cap has exploded with all other parameters left in its wake having seen a significant expansion in price-earnings ratio despite a strong improvement in EPS and revenue. The stock market has long since recognised the story and potential of ASML with the Wall Street analyst target currently at $722 per share. Fair to say, there is no margin of safety if the analysts are correct in the predictions. Interestingly, out of the 30 analysts offering a price target, the percentage who are very bullish hasn’t been higher since 2016 with 56% stating a very bullish opinion. There is a mental exercise in staying cautious in terms of believing in such statements, not least because the stock has only known one direction for the last couple of years – upwards.\nThe significance of the expansion in typical ratios is evident when considered over a five-year horizon as shown below. Both P/E and P/S have expanded massively standing at 55 and 15.7 respectively. However, the company is in a very different place compared to three years ago.\nData by YCharts\nRevenue is growing significantly faster than previously with gross margin and free cash flow also having improved. Due to this positive development, ASML is also returning plenty of capital to its shareholders with a share buyback program of €10 billion for 2021, which unfortunately only translates to a reduction of 0.5% of the current float.\nData by YCharts\nThe strong belief in ASML going forward is also clearly illustrated by the estimates for the coming years, which throughout the most recent years has been steadily climbing due to the company’s strong portfolio and market dominance.\nData by YCharts\nWith all that said, I believe that current shareholders do well for themselves in holding on to their existing shares as this company has a great outlook. I’ve had my eyes on ASML for the last year, and I’m extremely sad to say I never got around to looking into it properly, but only looked it at from afar and concluded that the stock might be due for a good pullback at one point. Little did I know.\nAs Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves,” as would also be true for someone like me who didn’t act in time. I’m still massively fascinated by ASML’s outlook and potential journey, but at the current price, I remain hesitant about the prospects and the lack of margin of safety.\nThere is a lot of potential for ASML to grow into its valuation, and if one is to add that current levels, I’d say dollar-cost averaging is a prudent strategy for the current price, while reserving the possibility to back up the truck for a full load if we see a pullback before end of 2021.\nAs can be seen below, it is not uncommon for ASML to experience a 10% setback once or twice a year.\nData by YCharts\nConclusion\nASML is dominant within its two main offerings, the DUV and EUV lithography. Its market is backed by incredibly strong tailwinds as all our gadgets, electrical cars, 5G, datacentres, cloud servers, etc. are heavily reliant on the technology platform offered by ASML. A true innovator with no real competition in sight, feeding machinery and tools to an industry expected to grow at CAGR 8.6% through 2028 with potentially even stronger growth for both its DUV and EUV platforms while also expecting margin expansion.\nThere is little evil to be said about ASML, but unfortunately, the stock market has long since recognised its amazing story and potential. With such a strong outlook in sight, existing shareholders do well for themselves in holding onto their shares and just enjoy the journey ahead, but for the prospective shareholders, there appears to be a little margin of safety with the market cap having expanded significantly recently and the stock trading just an inch shy of its 52 week high.\nAs Peter Lynch said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” The exact fallacy I’ve fallen victim to as I’ve looked at ASML from afar for quite a while. Despite the recent expansion in market cap and multiples, there could be made a case for current estimates underestimating ASML’s true potential, but any forecast extending 5-10 years into the future comes with extreme uncertainty and guesstimation. As I’ve shown, ASML’s share price is prone to setbacks once or twice a year allowing dollar-cost averaging to serve as a method to acquire exposure to the company slowly building a position along the way.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":115223334,"gmtCreate":1623015093328,"gmtModify":1634096312695,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115223334","repostId":"1160563289","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1160563289","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622864224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1160563289?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 11:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index<blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小型股指数中剔除</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160563289","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in ","content":"<p>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.</p><p><blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小盘股指数中剔除，特斯拉和摩根大通跻身罗素美国指数前10名。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index<blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小型股指数中剔除</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-05 11:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.</p><p><blockquote>富时罗素将游戏驿站从小盘股指数中剔除，特斯拉和摩根大通跻身罗素美国指数前10名。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通","IWM":"罗素2000指数ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160563289","content_text":"FTSE Russell removed GameStop from the small-cap index, with Tesla and JPMorgan among the top 10 in the Russell U.S. index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"GME":0.9,"IWM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":805964524,"gmtCreate":1627853110968,"gmtModify":1631887094089,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805964524","repostId":"1144558005","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":194604815,"gmtCreate":1621371850337,"gmtModify":1634192144103,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194604815","repostId":"1109408177","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":100457168,"gmtCreate":1619644794854,"gmtModify":1634211171507,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100457168","repostId":"1129899601","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129899601","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619607898,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129899601?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-28 19:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investing in These Stocks Now Could Make You a Millionaire Retiree<blockquote>现在投资这些股票可以让您成为百万富翁退休人员</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129899601","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"It's much better to be a millionaire retiree than a thousandaire one. You're probably not going to b","content":"<p>It's much better to be a millionaire retiree than a thousandaire one. You're probably not going to become one, though, unless you take some steps toward it. One good way is to regularly invest meaningful sumsin the stock market, over a long period of time -- such as via a low-cost broad-market index fund.</p><p><blockquote>成为一个百万富翁退休人员比成为一个一千岁的退休人员要好得多。不过，你可能不会成为其中一员，除非你朝着它迈出一些步骤。一个好方法是在很长一段时间内定期将有意义的资金投资于股市，例如通过低成本的大盘指数基金。</blockquote></p><p> If you want to try to get to millionairehood sooner, you might try investing in some carefully chosen individual stocks -- perhaps in addition to investing in index funds. Here are three growth stocks that have a lot of potential.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想尽快成为百万富翁，你可以尝试投资一些精心挑选的个股——也许除了投资指数基金之外。以下是三只潜力巨大的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3e1ae423e7496b9bb443443b54b97f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Zscaler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Zscaler</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zscaler</b>(NASDAQ:ZS)offers security technology for companies using various cloud services, and has been named the leader in secure web gateways by research firm Gartner. It has been growing briskly, with its stock increasing in value by more than sixfold over only about three years, since the company debuted on the public market. In its most recent quarter, revenue grew by 55% year over year, while billings jumped 71%. The company, recently sporting a market value near $26 billion, \"reached a new milestone by surpassing 5,000 customers during the quarter, including 500 of the Global 2000.\" Between fiscal 2016 and 2020, revenue grew more than fivefold.</p><p><blockquote><b>Zscaler</b>（纳斯达克：ZS）为使用各种云服务的公司提供安全技术，并被研究公司Gartner评为安全网络网关的领导者。自该公司在公开市场上市以来，其股票价值在短短三年内增长了六倍多。最近一个季度，收入同比增长55%，营业额增长71%。该公司最近的市值接近260亿美元，“本季度客户数量超过5,000家，其中包括全球2000强中的500家，达到了新的里程碑。”2016财年至2020财年期间，收入增长了五倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Zscaler has a \"big, audacious goal\" of reaching 200 million users and 100 million workloads, and in a presentation&nbsp;for investors, outlined a handful of growth drivers, such as upselling to existing customers, an increased presence in Japan and Latin America, and continuing technological innovations.The company has excelledat retaining customers and, indeed, at increasing the average amount they spend.</p><p><blockquote>Zscaler有一个“宏伟而大胆的目标”，即达到2亿用户和1亿个工作负载，并在给投资者的演示中概述了一些增长动力，例如向现有客户追加销售、增加在日本和拉丁美洲的业务以及持续的技术创新。该公司在留住客户方面表现出色，事实上，在增加他们的平均消费金额方面也表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> One concern about Zscaler for investors may be that it has been posting net losses, not net income, in recent years. But that's not unusual for younger, smaller companies. They tend to plow as many dollars as possible into furthering their growth.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对Zscaler的一个担忧可能是，近年来该公司一直出现净亏损，而不是净利润。但这对于年轻、规模较小的公司来说并不罕见。他们倾向于投入尽可能多的资金来促进增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Datadog</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Datadog</b></blockquote></p><p> Software-as-a-service (SaaS)&nbsp;company<b>Datadog</b>(NASDAQ:DDOG)has been public for a shorter period than Zscaler. It debuted on the markets in September of 2019, closing at&nbsp;$37.55 per share on its first day, and it has more than doubled in value since then. Its market value recently sat at $27 billion.</p><p><blockquote>软件即服务(SaaS)公司<b>Datadog</b>（纳斯达克：DDOG）上市时间比Zscaler短。它于2019年9月首次上市，首日收盘价为每股37.55美元，此后其价值已翻了一番多。其市值最近为270亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> So what does the company do? In its own words, it's a \"monitoring and security platform for cloud applications,\" which helps companies</p><p><blockquote>那么公司是做什么的呢？用它自己的话说，它是一个“云应用程序的监控和安全平台”，帮助公司</blockquote></p><p>   enable digital transformation and cloud migration, drive collaboration among development, operations, security and business teams, accelerate time to market for applications, reduce time to problem resolution, secure applications and infrastructure, understand user behavior, and track key business metrics.  Various applications have been added to its platform over time, making it even more powerful and attractive to potential customers, and more will be added. Its customers appear to be findinga lot to like in Datadog's offerings, as the company's retention rate was recently around 130%, suggesting not only that it retained most customers, but also that they increased their spending.</p><p><blockquote>实现数字化转型和云迁移，推动开发、运营、安全和业务团队之间的协作，加快应用程序的上市时间，缩短解决问题的时间，保护应用程序和基础架构，了解用户行为，并跟踪关键业务指标。随着时间的推移，各种应用程序已添加到其平台中，使其更加强大，对潜在客户更具吸引力，并且还将添加更多应用程序。其客户似乎对Datadog的产品有很多喜欢之处，因为该公司最近的保留率约为130%，这表明它不仅保留了大多数客户，而且他们还增加了支出。</blockquote></p><p> Datadog is growing rapidly, with revenue tripling&nbsp;between fiscal 2018 and 2020. Like Zscaler, it'sposting losseswhile it invests in growth -- developing additional technologies, hiring more people, acquiring more customers, and ramping up its capabilities. Despite that, it'sgenerating free cash flow, which bodes well for its financial health.</p><p><blockquote>Datadog正在快速增长，2018财年至2020财年收入增长了两倍。与Zscaler一样，它在投资增长的同时也在亏损——开发更多技术、雇佣更多员工、获得更多客户以及提升能力。尽管如此，它仍在产生自由现金流，这对其财务健康来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69bfcb5ba5d9c7e18673db94f759aa5\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1142\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Palo Alto Networks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.帕洛阿尔托网络公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palo Alto Networks</b>(NYSE:PANW)isa global leader in cybersecurity, with a market value recently near $35 billion. Clearly, threats from cyberspace are not going away anytime soon, and companies can't afford to have their systems hacked into and their safeguards breached. Enter Palo Alto, with technology, programs, and even consulting services to help companies secure their data and workings.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕洛阿尔托网络</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PANW）是网络安全领域的全球领导者，最近市值接近350亿美元。显然，来自网络空间的威胁不会很快消失，公司承受不起他们的系统被黑客入侵和安全措施被破坏的后果。进入帕洛阿尔托，带着技术、程序甚至咨询服务来帮助公司保护他们的数据和工作。</blockquote></p><p> In the company's last reported quarter, revenue and billings jumped 25% and 22% year over year, respectively, topping management's previous guidance. Its growth drivers include its cloud-delivered security subscription offerings, which have gone from four to eight in just two years, and the newer, higher support level that it's offering customers -- \"Platinum Support.\"</p><p><blockquote>在该公司上一季度的报告中，收入和账单同比分别增长25%和22%，超过了管理层之前的指导。其增长动力包括其云交付的安全订阅产品（在短短两年内从四个增加到八个），以及它为客户提供的更新、更高的支持级别——“白金支持”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palo Alto's artificial-intelligence-powered threat detection platform Cortex counts&nbsp;66% of the Fortune 100 among its customers, plus 35% of the Global 2000. Interestingly, the company notes that \"Cortex XDR's Behavioral Threat Protection instantly blocked a SolarStorm attack on Palo Alto Networks\" and it sees the SolarStorm attack as a growth driver, as it generated more than 1,000 assessment requests related to it. CEO Nikesh Arora noted ina conference call:</p><p><blockquote>Palo Alto的人工智能威胁检测平台Cortex拥有财富100强中66%的客户，以及全球2000强中35%的客户。有趣的是，该公司指出，“Cortex XDR的行为威胁防护立即阻止了对Palo Alto Networks的SolarStorm攻击”，并将SolarStorm攻击视为增长动力，因为它生成了1,000多个与之相关的评估请求。首席执行官Nikesh Arora指出ina电话会议：</blockquote></p><p>   This will result in more awareness and focus on cybersecurity, which in all candor, is the need of the hour given the complete reliance on technology in these times. We expect that this attack will be a wake-up call to all enterprises to modernize cybersecurity and will serve as a net incremental tailwind, not just for us but also for the industry.  These three companies are not selling at bargain-basement prices. But each appears to have a rosy future ahead of it. Consider digging more deeply into any of the companies that interest you, and if you like what you think, you might start a position in one or more by buying a few initial shares, and then add to that position over time. Or play it more conservative and just add the companies to your watch list, hoping for a lower price in the future (and knowing that it may or may not materialize).</p><p><blockquote>这将提高人们对网络安全的认识和关注，坦率地说，鉴于当今时代对技术的完全依赖，这是当前的需要。我们预计，这次攻击将成为所有企业实现网络安全现代化的看涨期权，并将成为净增量顺风车，不仅对我们如此，对整个行业也是如此。这三家公司并没有以低价出售。但是每个人似乎都有一个美好的未来。考虑更深入地挖掘您感兴趣的任何公司，如果您喜欢自己的想法，您可以通过购买一些初始股票来建立一家或多家公司的头寸，然后随着时间的推移增加该头寸。或者玩得更保守，只需将这些公司添加到您的观察列表中，希望将来会有更低的价格（并且知道它可能会也可能不会实现）。</blockquote></p><p> Remember, too, that there are plenty of otherterrific growth stocksout there, and many of them are trading at lower valuations.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，还有很多其他出色的成长型股票，其中许多股票的估值较低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investing in These Stocks Now Could Make You a Millionaire Retiree<blockquote>现在投资这些股票可以让您成为百万富翁退休人员</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvesting in These Stocks Now Could Make You a Millionaire Retiree<blockquote>现在投资这些股票可以让您成为百万富翁退休人员</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-28 19:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It's much better to be a millionaire retiree than a thousandaire one. You're probably not going to become one, though, unless you take some steps toward it. One good way is to regularly invest meaningful sumsin the stock market, over a long period of time -- such as via a low-cost broad-market index fund.</p><p><blockquote>成为一个百万富翁退休人员比成为一个一千岁的退休人员要好得多。不过，你可能不会成为其中一员，除非你朝着它迈出一些步骤。一个好方法是在很长一段时间内定期将有意义的资金投资于股市，例如通过低成本的大盘指数基金。</blockquote></p><p> If you want to try to get to millionairehood sooner, you might try investing in some carefully chosen individual stocks -- perhaps in addition to investing in index funds. Here are three growth stocks that have a lot of potential.</p><p><blockquote>如果你想尽快成为百万富翁，你可以尝试投资一些精心挑选的个股——也许除了投资指数基金之外。以下是三只潜力巨大的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3e1ae423e7496b9bb443443b54b97f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Zscaler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.Zscaler</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Zscaler</b>(NASDAQ:ZS)offers security technology for companies using various cloud services, and has been named the leader in secure web gateways by research firm Gartner. It has been growing briskly, with its stock increasing in value by more than sixfold over only about three years, since the company debuted on the public market. In its most recent quarter, revenue grew by 55% year over year, while billings jumped 71%. The company, recently sporting a market value near $26 billion, \"reached a new milestone by surpassing 5,000 customers during the quarter, including 500 of the Global 2000.\" Between fiscal 2016 and 2020, revenue grew more than fivefold.</p><p><blockquote><b>Zscaler</b>（纳斯达克：ZS）为使用各种云服务的公司提供安全技术，并被研究公司Gartner评为安全网络网关的领导者。自该公司在公开市场上市以来，其股票价值在短短三年内增长了六倍多。最近一个季度，收入同比增长55%，营业额增长71%。该公司最近的市值接近260亿美元，“本季度客户数量超过5,000家，其中包括全球2000强中的500家，达到了新的里程碑。”2016财年至2020财年期间，收入增长了五倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Zscaler has a \"big, audacious goal\" of reaching 200 million users and 100 million workloads, and in a presentation&nbsp;for investors, outlined a handful of growth drivers, such as upselling to existing customers, an increased presence in Japan and Latin America, and continuing technological innovations.The company has excelledat retaining customers and, indeed, at increasing the average amount they spend.</p><p><blockquote>Zscaler有一个“宏伟而大胆的目标”，即达到2亿用户和1亿个工作负载，并在给投资者的演示中概述了一些增长动力，例如向现有客户追加销售、增加在日本和拉丁美洲的业务以及持续的技术创新。该公司在留住客户方面表现出色，事实上，在增加他们的平均消费金额方面也表现出色。</blockquote></p><p> One concern about Zscaler for investors may be that it has been posting net losses, not net income, in recent years. But that's not unusual for younger, smaller companies. They tend to plow as many dollars as possible into furthering their growth.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对Zscaler的一个担忧可能是，近年来该公司一直出现净亏损，而不是净利润。但这对于年轻、规模较小的公司来说并不罕见。他们倾向于投入尽可能多的资金来促进增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Datadog</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Datadog</b></blockquote></p><p> Software-as-a-service (SaaS)&nbsp;company<b>Datadog</b>(NASDAQ:DDOG)has been public for a shorter period than Zscaler. It debuted on the markets in September of 2019, closing at&nbsp;$37.55 per share on its first day, and it has more than doubled in value since then. Its market value recently sat at $27 billion.</p><p><blockquote>软件即服务(SaaS)公司<b>Datadog</b>（纳斯达克：DDOG）上市时间比Zscaler短。它于2019年9月首次上市，首日收盘价为每股37.55美元，此后其价值已翻了一番多。其市值最近为270亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> So what does the company do? In its own words, it's a \"monitoring and security platform for cloud applications,\" which helps companies</p><p><blockquote>那么公司是做什么的呢？用它自己的话说，它是一个“云应用程序的监控和安全平台”，帮助公司</blockquote></p><p>   enable digital transformation and cloud migration, drive collaboration among development, operations, security and business teams, accelerate time to market for applications, reduce time to problem resolution, secure applications and infrastructure, understand user behavior, and track key business metrics.  Various applications have been added to its platform over time, making it even more powerful and attractive to potential customers, and more will be added. Its customers appear to be findinga lot to like in Datadog's offerings, as the company's retention rate was recently around 130%, suggesting not only that it retained most customers, but also that they increased their spending.</p><p><blockquote>实现数字化转型和云迁移，推动开发、运营、安全和业务团队之间的协作，加快应用程序的上市时间，缩短解决问题的时间，保护应用程序和基础架构，了解用户行为，并跟踪关键业务指标。随着时间的推移，各种应用程序已添加到其平台中，使其更加强大，对潜在客户更具吸引力，并且还将添加更多应用程序。其客户似乎对Datadog的产品有很多喜欢之处，因为该公司最近的保留率约为130%，这表明它不仅保留了大多数客户，而且他们还增加了支出。</blockquote></p><p> Datadog is growing rapidly, with revenue tripling&nbsp;between fiscal 2018 and 2020. Like Zscaler, it'sposting losseswhile it invests in growth -- developing additional technologies, hiring more people, acquiring more customers, and ramping up its capabilities. Despite that, it'sgenerating free cash flow, which bodes well for its financial health.</p><p><blockquote>Datadog正在快速增长，2018财年至2020财年收入增长了两倍。与Zscaler一样，它在投资增长的同时也在亏损——开发更多技术、雇佣更多员工、获得更多客户以及提升能力。尽管如此，它仍在产生自由现金流，这对其财务健康来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69bfcb5ba5d9c7e18673db94f759aa5\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1142\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Palo Alto Networks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.帕洛阿尔托网络公司</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palo Alto Networks</b>(NYSE:PANW)isa global leader in cybersecurity, with a market value recently near $35 billion. Clearly, threats from cyberspace are not going away anytime soon, and companies can't afford to have their systems hacked into and their safeguards breached. Enter Palo Alto, with technology, programs, and even consulting services to help companies secure their data and workings.</p><p><blockquote><b>帕洛阿尔托网络</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：PANW）是网络安全领域的全球领导者，最近市值接近350亿美元。显然，来自网络空间的威胁不会很快消失，公司承受不起他们的系统被黑客入侵和安全措施被破坏的后果。进入帕洛阿尔托，带着技术、程序甚至咨询服务来帮助公司保护他们的数据和工作。</blockquote></p><p> In the company's last reported quarter, revenue and billings jumped 25% and 22% year over year, respectively, topping management's previous guidance. Its growth drivers include its cloud-delivered security subscription offerings, which have gone from four to eight in just two years, and the newer, higher support level that it's offering customers -- \"Platinum Support.\"</p><p><blockquote>在该公司上一季度的报告中，收入和账单同比分别增长25%和22%，超过了管理层之前的指导。其增长动力包括其云交付的安全订阅产品（在短短两年内从四个增加到八个），以及它为客户提供的更新、更高的支持级别——“白金支持”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palo Alto's artificial-intelligence-powered threat detection platform Cortex counts&nbsp;66% of the Fortune 100 among its customers, plus 35% of the Global 2000. Interestingly, the company notes that \"Cortex XDR's Behavioral Threat Protection instantly blocked a SolarStorm attack on Palo Alto Networks\" and it sees the SolarStorm attack as a growth driver, as it generated more than 1,000 assessment requests related to it. CEO Nikesh Arora noted ina conference call:</p><p><blockquote>Palo Alto的人工智能威胁检测平台Cortex拥有财富100强中66%的客户，以及全球2000强中35%的客户。有趣的是，该公司指出，“Cortex XDR的行为威胁防护立即阻止了对Palo Alto Networks的SolarStorm攻击”，并将SolarStorm攻击视为增长动力，因为它生成了1,000多个与之相关的评估请求。首席执行官Nikesh Arora指出ina电话会议：</blockquote></p><p>   This will result in more awareness and focus on cybersecurity, which in all candor, is the need of the hour given the complete reliance on technology in these times. We expect that this attack will be a wake-up call to all enterprises to modernize cybersecurity and will serve as a net incremental tailwind, not just for us but also for the industry.  These three companies are not selling at bargain-basement prices. But each appears to have a rosy future ahead of it. Consider digging more deeply into any of the companies that interest you, and if you like what you think, you might start a position in one or more by buying a few initial shares, and then add to that position over time. Or play it more conservative and just add the companies to your watch list, hoping for a lower price in the future (and knowing that it may or may not materialize).</p><p><blockquote>这将提高人们对网络安全的认识和关注，坦率地说，鉴于当今时代对技术的完全依赖，这是当前的需要。我们预计，这次攻击将成为所有企业实现网络安全现代化的看涨期权，并将成为净增量顺风车，不仅对我们如此，对整个行业也是如此。这三家公司并没有以低价出售。但是每个人似乎都有一个美好的未来。考虑更深入地挖掘您感兴趣的任何公司，如果您喜欢自己的想法，您可以通过购买一些初始股票来建立一家或多家公司的头寸，然后随着时间的推移增加该头寸。或者玩得更保守，只需将这些公司添加到您的观察列表中，希望将来会有更低的价格（并且知道它可能会也可能不会实现）。</blockquote></p><p> Remember, too, that there are plenty of otherterrific growth stocksout there, and many of them are trading at lower valuations.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，还有很多其他出色的成长型股票，其中许多股票的估值较低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/28/investing-in-these-stocks-now-could-make-you-a-mil/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PANW":"Palo Alto Networks","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","DDOG":"Datadog"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/28/investing-in-these-stocks-now-could-make-you-a-mil/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129899601","content_text":"It's much better to be a millionaire retiree than a thousandaire one. You're probably not going to become one, though, unless you take some steps toward it. One good way is to regularly invest meaningful sumsin the stock market, over a long period of time -- such as via a low-cost broad-market index fund.\nIf you want to try to get to millionairehood sooner, you might try investing in some carefully chosen individual stocks -- perhaps in addition to investing in index funds. Here are three growth stocks that have a lot of potential.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Zscaler\nZscaler(NASDAQ:ZS)offers security technology for companies using various cloud services, and has been named the leader in secure web gateways by research firm Gartner. It has been growing briskly, with its stock increasing in value by more than sixfold over only about three years, since the company debuted on the public market. In its most recent quarter, revenue grew by 55% year over year, while billings jumped 71%. The company, recently sporting a market value near $26 billion, \"reached a new milestone by surpassing 5,000 customers during the quarter, including 500 of the Global 2000.\" Between fiscal 2016 and 2020, revenue grew more than fivefold.\nZscaler has a \"big, audacious goal\" of reaching 200 million users and 100 million workloads, and in a presentation for investors, outlined a handful of growth drivers, such as upselling to existing customers, an increased presence in Japan and Latin America, and continuing technological innovations.The company has excelledat retaining customers and, indeed, at increasing the average amount they spend.\nOne concern about Zscaler for investors may be that it has been posting net losses, not net income, in recent years. But that's not unusual for younger, smaller companies. They tend to plow as many dollars as possible into furthering their growth.\n2. Datadog\nSoftware-as-a-service (SaaS) companyDatadog(NASDAQ:DDOG)has been public for a shorter period than Zscaler. It debuted on the markets in September of 2019, closing at $37.55 per share on its first day, and it has more than doubled in value since then. Its market value recently sat at $27 billion.\nSo what does the company do? In its own words, it's a \"monitoring and security platform for cloud applications,\" which helps companies\n\n enable digital transformation and cloud migration, drive collaboration among development, operations, security and business teams, accelerate time to market for applications, reduce time to problem resolution, secure applications and infrastructure, understand user behavior, and track key business metrics.\n\nVarious applications have been added to its platform over time, making it even more powerful and attractive to potential customers, and more will be added. Its customers appear to be findinga lot to like in Datadog's offerings, as the company's retention rate was recently around 130%, suggesting not only that it retained most customers, but also that they increased their spending.\nDatadog is growing rapidly, with revenue tripling between fiscal 2018 and 2020. Like Zscaler, it'sposting losseswhile it invests in growth -- developing additional technologies, hiring more people, acquiring more customers, and ramping up its capabilities. Despite that, it'sgenerating free cash flow, which bodes well for its financial health.\n\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n3. Palo Alto Networks\nPalo Alto Networks(NYSE:PANW)isa global leader in cybersecurity, with a market value recently near $35 billion. Clearly, threats from cyberspace are not going away anytime soon, and companies can't afford to have their systems hacked into and their safeguards breached. Enter Palo Alto, with technology, programs, and even consulting services to help companies secure their data and workings.\nIn the company's last reported quarter, revenue and billings jumped 25% and 22% year over year, respectively, topping management's previous guidance. Its growth drivers include its cloud-delivered security subscription offerings, which have gone from four to eight in just two years, and the newer, higher support level that it's offering customers -- \"Platinum Support.\"\nPalo Alto's artificial-intelligence-powered threat detection platform Cortex counts 66% of the Fortune 100 among its customers, plus 35% of the Global 2000. Interestingly, the company notes that \"Cortex XDR's Behavioral Threat Protection instantly blocked a SolarStorm attack on Palo Alto Networks\" and it sees the SolarStorm attack as a growth driver, as it generated more than 1,000 assessment requests related to it. CEO Nikesh Arora noted ina conference call:\n\n This will result in more awareness and focus on cybersecurity, which in all candor, is the need of the hour given the complete reliance on technology in these times. We expect that this attack will be a wake-up call to all enterprises to modernize cybersecurity and will serve as a net incremental tailwind, not just for us but also for the industry.\n\nThese three companies are not selling at bargain-basement prices. But each appears to have a rosy future ahead of it. Consider digging more deeply into any of the companies that interest you, and if you like what you think, you might start a position in one or more by buying a few initial shares, and then add to that position over time. Or play it more conservative and just add the companies to your watch list, hoping for a lower price in the future (and knowing that it may or may not materialize).\nRemember, too, that there are plenty of otherterrific growth stocksout there, and many of them are trading at lower valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZS":0.9,"DDOG":0.9,"PANW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":681,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":372658583,"gmtCreate":1619211700942,"gmtModify":1634287774098,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372658583","repostId":"1101099559","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1101099559","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1619191663,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1101099559?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-23 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow rebounds 200 points led by banks and tech as market shrugs off higher tax fears<blockquote>由于市场摆脱了税收上涨的担忧，道琼斯指数在银行和科技股的带领下反弹200点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1101099559","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White ","content":"<p>U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White House could seek a hike to the capital gains tax.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五反弹，华尔街重新评估了白宫可能寻求提高资本利得税的消息引发的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points amid a jump in Goldman Sachs and Apple shares. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1% led by financials and technology shares, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>由于高盛和苹果股价上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨200点。在金融和科技股的带动下，标普500上涨1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Wall Street came off a turbulent session for equities after multiple news outlets reported Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.</p><p><blockquote>周四下午，多家新闻媒体报道称，总统乔·拜登将提议对富人征收更高的资本利得税，华尔街股市经历了动荡的交易日。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg News reported that Biden is planning a&nbsp;capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4%&nbsp;for wealthy Americans.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社报道称，拜登正计划将美国富人的资本利得税提高至高达43.4%。</blockquote></p><p>The proposal would hike the capital gains rate to 39.6% for&nbsp;those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters and the New York Times later also reported similar stories.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，该提案将把收入100万美元或以上的人的资本利得税率从目前的20%提高到39.6%。路透社和《纽约时报》后来也报道了类似的故事。</blockquote></p><p>“We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists in a note. “We expect Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道：“我们预计国会将通过此次增税的缩减版本。”“我们预计国会将决定更温和的增幅，可能在28%左右。”</blockquote></p><p>Week to date, the three major averages are all down about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周迄今为止，三大股指均下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p>Intel shares dropped more than 5% after it issued second-quarter earnings guidance&nbsp;below analysts’ hopes. American Express fell over 4% after the credit card company reported quarterly revenue that was slightly short of forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔发布低于分析师预期的第二季度盈利指引后，股价下跌超过5%。美国运通(American Express)公布季度收入略低于预期，股价下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p>Snap shares, meanwhile, jumped 9% after it said&nbsp;it saw accelerating revenue growth and strong user numbers during the first quarter. Snap broke even on the bottom line while posting revenue of $770 million.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Snap表示第一季度收入增长加速，用户数量强劲，该公司股价上涨9%。Snap实现了盈亏平衡，营收为7.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Corporations have for the most part managed to beat Wall Street’s forecasts thus far into earnings season. Still, strong first-quarter results have been met with a more tepid response from investors, who have not, to date, snapped up shares of companies with some of the best results.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，企业在财报季中大多成功超出了华尔街的预期。尽管如此，投资者对第一季度强劲的业绩反应却较为冷淡，迄今为止，投资者尚未抢购业绩最好的公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Strategists say already-high valuations and near-record-high levels on the S&amp;P 500 and Dow have kept traders’ enthusiasm in check. But indexes are within 1.5% of their all-time highs even after Thursday’s losses.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，标普500和道指已经很高的估值以及接近历史新高的水平抑制了交易员的热情。但即使在周四下跌之后，指数仍与历史高点相差不到1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin&nbsp;plunged overnight, perhaps in part because of concerns about higher capital gains taxes, with the cryptocurrency last down about 8%, according to CoinMetrics. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum were also getting hit. So far, the sell-off there was not spilling over into other risk assets like equities.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinMetrics的数据，比特币隔夜暴跌，部分原因可能是对更高资本利得税的担忧，该加密货币最近下跌了约8%。以太币等其他加密货币也受到了打击。到目前为止，那里的抛售还没有蔓延到股票等其他风险资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow rebounds 200 points led by banks and tech as market shrugs off higher tax fears<blockquote>由于市场摆脱了税收上涨的担忧，道琼斯指数在银行和科技股的带领下反弹200点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow rebounds 200 points led by banks and tech as market shrugs off higher tax fears<blockquote>由于市场摆脱了税收上涨的担忧，道琼斯指数在银行和科技股的带领下反弹200点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-23 23:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White House could seek a hike to the capital gains tax.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周五反弹，华尔街重新评估了白宫可能寻求提高资本利得税的消息引发的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points amid a jump in Goldman Sachs and Apple shares. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1% led by financials and technology shares, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2%.</p><p><blockquote>由于高盛和苹果股价上涨，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨200点。在金融和科技股的带动下，标普500上涨1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p>Wall Street came off a turbulent session for equities after multiple news outlets reported Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.</p><p><blockquote>周四下午，多家新闻媒体报道称，总统乔·拜登将提议对富人征收更高的资本利得税，华尔街股市经历了动荡的交易日。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg News reported that Biden is planning a&nbsp;capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4%&nbsp;for wealthy Americans.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新闻社报道称，拜登正计划将美国富人的资本利得税提高至高达43.4%。</blockquote></p><p>The proposal would hike the capital gains rate to 39.6% for&nbsp;those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters and the New York Times later also reported similar stories.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博新闻社援引知情人士的话报道，该提案将把收入100万美元或以上的人的资本利得税率从目前的20%提高到39.6%。路透社和《纽约时报》后来也报道了类似的故事。</blockquote></p><p>“We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists in a note. “We expect Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在一份报告中写道：“我们预计国会将通过此次增税的缩减版本。”“我们预计国会将决定更温和的增幅，可能在28%左右。”</blockquote></p><p>Week to date, the three major averages are all down about 1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周迄今为止，三大股指均下跌约1%。</blockquote></p><p>Intel shares dropped more than 5% after it issued second-quarter earnings guidance&nbsp;below analysts’ hopes. American Express fell over 4% after the credit card company reported quarterly revenue that was slightly short of forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔发布低于分析师预期的第二季度盈利指引后，股价下跌超过5%。美国运通(American Express)公布季度收入略低于预期，股价下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p>Snap shares, meanwhile, jumped 9% after it said&nbsp;it saw accelerating revenue growth and strong user numbers during the first quarter. Snap broke even on the bottom line while posting revenue of $770 million.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Snap表示第一季度收入增长加速，用户数量强劲，该公司股价上涨9%。Snap实现了盈亏平衡，营收为7.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Corporations have for the most part managed to beat Wall Street’s forecasts thus far into earnings season. Still, strong first-quarter results have been met with a more tepid response from investors, who have not, to date, snapped up shares of companies with some of the best results.</p><p><blockquote>迄今为止，企业在财报季中大多成功超出了华尔街的预期。尽管如此，投资者对第一季度强劲的业绩反应却较为冷淡，迄今为止，投资者尚未抢购业绩最好的公司的股票。</blockquote></p><p>Strategists say already-high valuations and near-record-high levels on the S&amp;P 500 and Dow have kept traders’ enthusiasm in check. But indexes are within 1.5% of their all-time highs even after Thursday’s losses.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，标普500和道指已经很高的估值以及接近历史新高的水平抑制了交易员的热情。但即使在周四下跌之后，指数仍与历史高点相差不到1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Bitcoin&nbsp;plunged overnight, perhaps in part because of concerns about higher capital gains taxes, with the cryptocurrency last down about 8%, according to CoinMetrics. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum were also getting hit. So far, the sell-off there was not spilling over into other risk assets like equities.</p><p><blockquote>根据CoinMetrics的数据，比特币隔夜暴跌，部分原因可能是对更高资本利得税的担忧，该加密货币最近下跌了约8%。以太币等其他加密货币也受到了打击。到目前为止，那里的抛售还没有蔓延到股票等其他风险资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc",".DJI":"道琼斯","INTC":"英特尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1101099559","content_text":"U.S. stocks rebounded on Friday as Wall Street reassessed concerns arising from news that the White House could seek a hike to the capital gains tax.The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 200 points amid a jump in Goldman Sachs and Apple shares. The S&P 500 rose 1% led by financials and technology shares, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2%.Wall Street came off a turbulent session for equities after multiple news outlets reported Thursday afternoon that President Joe Biden is slated to propose much higher capital gains taxes for the rich.Bloomberg News reported that Biden is planning a capital gains tax hike to as high as 43.4% for wealthy Americans.The proposal would hike the capital gains rate to 39.6% for those earning $1 million or more, up from 20% currently, according to Bloomberg News, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters and the New York Times later also reported similar stories.“We expect Congress will pass a scaled back version of this tax increase,” wrote Goldman Sachs economists in a note. “We expect Congress will settle on a more modest increase, potentially around 28%.”Week to date, the three major averages are all down about 1%.Intel shares dropped more than 5% after it issued second-quarter earnings guidance below analysts’ hopes. American Express fell over 4% after the credit card company reported quarterly revenue that was slightly short of forecasts.Snap shares, meanwhile, jumped 9% after it said it saw accelerating revenue growth and strong user numbers during the first quarter. Snap broke even on the bottom line while posting revenue of $770 million.Corporations have for the most part managed to beat Wall Street’s forecasts thus far into earnings season. Still, strong first-quarter results have been met with a more tepid response from investors, who have not, to date, snapped up shares of companies with some of the best results.Strategists say already-high valuations and near-record-high levels on the S&P 500 and Dow have kept traders’ enthusiasm in check. But indexes are within 1.5% of their all-time highs even after Thursday’s losses.Bitcoin plunged overnight, perhaps in part because of concerns about higher capital gains taxes, with the cryptocurrency last down about 8%, according to CoinMetrics. Other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum were also getting hit. So far, the sell-off there was not spilling over into other risk assets like equities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SNAP":0.9,"INTC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346484298,"gmtCreate":1618103281314,"gmtModify":1634294917775,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346484298","repostId":"1136941144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346133835,"gmtCreate":1618012416327,"gmtModify":1634295278582,"author":{"id":"3563518698255751","authorId":"3563518698255751","name":"octa8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9866d6e2ee91185e34a0a44121ba0f1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3563518698255751","idStr":"3563518698255751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"[强]&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"[强] [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346133835","repostId":"1136941144","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}