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减肥的小猫咪
2021-07-26
$蔚来(NIO)$
今晚可能跌破40,准备好
减肥的小猫咪
2021-02-02
涨跌1%叫做波动大?
抱歉,原内容已删除
减肥的小猫咪
2021-01-14
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
最近估计有大事发生
减肥的小猫咪
2020-12-22
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
挣个火锅钱[财迷] [财迷]
减肥的小猫咪
2020-12-03
学渣表示你们在考场安装监视器摄像头是对学渣的歧视做法[财迷] 学霸表示你们能再装100个监控吗?[财迷]
$蔚来(NIO)$
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
$理想汽车(LI)$
美国国会通过《外国公司问责法案》,对中概股影响有多大?
减肥的小猫咪
2020-12-02
财务造假不打你打谁?中国公司有多少不受监管或者有水分的在美国上市,自己心里没点x数?
抱歉,原内容已删除
减肥的小猫咪
2020-12-01
现在还有人觉得穿牛仔喇叭裤是时尚吗?80-90年代那可是时尚啊
名字土?何小鹏回应小鹏汽车命名由来 雷军谈小米命名
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-26
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
不知道说啥
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-25
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
昨天不是有个二货说收盘价80吗?还说阿里巴巴大资金注入?人呢?想抽你脸
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-24
现在看来,当初选择割肉卖掉它
$苹果(AAPL)$
而买入它
$蔚来(NIO)$
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-24
$苹果(AAPL)$
多谢你苹果,让我体验了一把啥叫买在最高卖在最低,这也是本事[财迷]
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-19
$蔚来(NIO)$
这个车模做工还不错[财迷] [财迷] 祝大家发财
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-19
$蔚来(NIO)$
所在地没有蔚来汽车卖,提个车模冲冲喜[财迷] [财迷]
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-18
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
尼玛买少了,零钱买了一手,mmp
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-18
$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$
怎么说?
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-13
$蔚来(NIO)$
第一次买期权,不懂这个怎么玩,啥时候该卖啊?
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-05
$Sea Ltd(SE)$
11月26号股东大会[财迷] [财迷]
减肥的小猫咪
2020-11-03
破发吧
蚂蚁缘何“惹火上身”
减肥的小猫咪
2020-10-18
理想最近广告打的好凶啊,还找猴哥拍视频
理想汽车:10个月交付2万辆,创中国造车新势力最快交付记录
减肥的小猫咪
2020-10-16
卡西欧市值超过百达翡丽就能说明百达菲丽不行了?这逻辑不对啊
$蔚来(NIO)$
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Board,简称PCAOB)对会计师事务所检查要求的,将禁止其证券在美国交易。该法案还要求上市公司披露,其是否...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://m.yicai.com/news/100862080.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1470aa36d6bbe14da03f40365032639","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://m.yicai.com/news/100862080.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173623669","content_text":"当地时间12月2日晚,美国国会众议院表决通过《外国公司问责法案》(Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act)。该法案要求,外国发行人连续三年不能满足美国公众公司会计监督委员会(Public Company Accounting Oversight Board,简称PCAOB)对会计师事务所检查要求的,将禁止其证券在美国交易。该法案还要求上市公司披露,其是否由外国政府拥有或控制。由于此法案已于今年5月在美国参议院获得通过。下一步,料众议院将提交至白宫,由美国总统特朗普决定是否签署成法律。此举意味着包括阿里巴巴、百度和京东等在内的中概股企业将有三年时间履行上述规定,如若不然,将从美股市场撤出。据统计,截至今年10月,217家中概股企业在美股市场挂牌交易,总市值达2.2万亿美元。有意思的是,美股资本市场投资者对此消息反应甚为平静。盘后,阿里巴巴股价微涨0.7%,拼多多跌0.8%。今年以来,阿里巴巴累计上涨23%,拼多多累计上涨280%,蔚来汽车累计上涨1094%。金瑞基金(KraneShares)首席投资官布兰登·埃亨(Brendan Ahern)在接受第一财经记者专访时表示,有信心中美双方将通过对话与合作解决分歧。他笑称:“(美国)政府绝不希望在经济衰退的风口浪尖,再拿2.2万亿美元的投资开玩笑。中概股大范围退市将损害美国全球金融中心的地位。”8月26日,中国证监会副主席方星海接受彭博社采访时表示,中国在解决中美跨境会计监管问题上的态度是真诚的,中国证监会本月初已向美国公众公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)提出新的方案,允许美方挑选任何一家国有中概股公司进行第二次试点联合检查。不过,这一试点检查的前提是,中国证监会出于国家安全的考虑,对审计工作底稿进行“脱敏”处理。方星海说:“这些问题愈发紧急,我们非常真诚,但另一方面,我们也非常重视保护涉及国家安全的信息。”埃亨认为,长期以来美国媒体的报道着墨重在投资中概股的风险,而甚少提及相关的丰厚收益。他以网易为例,该股于2000年6月29日在美挂牌上市,至今累计涨幅13335%。与此相比,亚马逊同期累计上涨8573%。他总结道:“投资大多数中概股的收益要远高于个别’坏苹果’。”据安永数据显示,截至今年9月末,已有24家中概股企业登陆美股市场,占美股跨境上市的半壁江山。10月30日,中国金融科技公司陆金所登陆纽约证券交易所,募资23.6亿美元。埃亨表示,贝壳和陆金所等中概股企业的成功上市,显示其投行和投资者都认为中概股撤离美股市场的可能性较低。据新华社报道,11月20日中国证监会有关部门负责人就中美审计监管合作事宜答记者问时表示:一,中国公司在美上市,均按美国相关法律和规则要求编制财务报表和履行信息披露义务,否则无法在美国监管机构注册。美国监管机构暂时不能检查为在美上市中国公司提供审计服务的中国会计师事务所,是跨境监管合作领域的问题,并不代表中国公司不遵守美国的相关法律和规则要求。二,关于中美审计监管合作,我们一贯的立场是通过跨境监管合作机制开展会计师事务所检查。2020年8月4日,中方监管部门在积极考虑美方诉求的基础上,向美国公众公司会计监督委员会(PCAOB)发送了关于会计师事务所联合检查的第四版方案建议,PCAOB确认收到并表示会积极研究。我们期待美方监管机构尽快与我方就具体方案开展磋商。相信双方秉持开放、专业态度,一定能就联合检查方案达成共识,有效推进中美审计监管合作,共同为跨境上市企业营造良好的监管环境。对此,中国外交部发言人华春莹表示,这一问题再次表明,美国对中国公司采取歧视性政策,对中国企业进行政治打压。华春莹是在12月2日中国外交部例行记者会上回答路透社记者提问时发表上述讲话的。她表示:“在资本市场高度全球化的今天,有关各方开诚布公地就加强跨境监管合作、保护投资者合法权益等议题加强对话和合作才是解决问题的正道。我们坚决反对将证券监管政治化的做法。我们希望美方能够为外国企业在美国的投资经营提供公平、公正、非歧视的环境,而不是想方设法设置种种障碍。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3316,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398657420,"gmtCreate":1606898514960,"gmtModify":1703845187843,"author":{"id":"3560130928228615","authorId":"3560130928228615","name":"减肥的小猫咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f589440331155b01570300a4b6a9bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560130928228615","authorIdStr":"3560130928228615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"财务造假不打你打谁?中国公司有多少不受监管或者有水分的在美国上市,自己心里没点x数?","listText":"财务造假不打你打谁?中国公司有多少不受监管或者有水分的在美国上市,自己心里没点x数?","text":"财务造假不打你打谁?中国公司有多少不受监管或者有水分的在美国上市,自己心里没点x数?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398657420","repostId":"1176811974","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391709017,"gmtCreate":1606752003239,"gmtModify":1703844251456,"author":{"id":"3560130928228615","authorId":"3560130928228615","name":"减肥的小猫咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f589440331155b01570300a4b6a9bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560130928228615","authorIdStr":"3560130928228615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"现在还有人觉得穿牛仔喇叭裤是时尚吗?80-90年代那可是时尚啊","listText":"现在还有人觉得穿牛仔喇叭裤是时尚吗?80-90年代那可是时尚啊","text":"现在还有人觉得穿牛仔喇叭裤是时尚吗?80-90年代那可是时尚啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391709017","repostId":"2086738958","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2086738958","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1606460700,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2086738958?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-27 15:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"名字土?何小鹏回应小鹏汽车命名由来 雷军谈小米命名","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2086738958","media":"CNMO","summary":"此问题一出,居然引来了小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏和小米公司创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军来作答。首先,何小鹏分享了“小鹏汽车”这个名字的由来。何小鹏介绍称,6年前小鹏汽车刚成立时,他担任的是天使投资人。小鹏汽车何小鹏表示,产品实力的高低,才是决定一个品牌高低的终极因素,而不单纯取决于一个符号或者一个名字。何小鹏回答后,这个问题也吸引了雷军的注意。作为小鹏汽车的好“鹏”友,雷军也分享了一些自己对品牌命名的看法。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:名字土?何小鹏回应<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>命名由来 雷军谈小米命名</p> <p>【手机中国新闻】近日,有知乎网友提问,最近发现不少人一味觉得国产品牌以创始人命名“土”而对产品完全忽略,这似乎有点本末倒置,而许多外国公司都是以创始人姓名来命名的,比如福特、本田、丰田、爱马仕、Gucci等,“为什么许多国外品牌以创始人名字命名我们觉得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BJZ.SI\">高大</a>上,而中国品牌以创始人命名却难以接受?”此问题一出,居然引来了小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏和小米公司创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军来作答。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201127/236/w600h436/20201127/4296-kentcvx8956592.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>何小鹏(图源网)</p><p>何小鹏表示,“感觉这个问题为小鹏汽车而设,我来回答再适合不过了。”首先,何小鹏分享了“小鹏汽车”这个名字的由来。</p><p>何小鹏介绍称,6年前小鹏汽车刚成立时,他担任的是天使投资人。品牌创立初期,需要一个喊得响的名称。“小鹏汽车”最早的名称叫“橙子汽车”,但是当他们准备了好几个商标、名称准备注册时,才发现很多好的名字已经被占用注册了,独独给“小鹏汽车”留下了空白。</p><p>何小鹏坦言称,将公司名称取名为“小鹏汽车”,当时何小鹏是“有顾虑的”,因为“作为投资人,起到的作用应该是帮忙不添乱,最大的忌讳是最后把自己连钱带人都投了进去。”但最终还是说服了自己和家人。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201127/222/w600h422/20201127/d91e-kentcvx8956593.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>小鹏汽车</p><p>何小鹏表示,产品实力的高低,才是决定一个品牌高低的终极因素,而不单纯取决于一个符号或者一个名字。一个响亮的品牌名称当然是一个加分项,但核心离不开过硬的技术研发、高品质的产品体验以及良好的服务体系。无论是小鹏汽车,还是它的英文名XPENG,只要坚持在产品的科技<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>和制造的品质工艺上做到足够好,最终这个品牌一定会让消费者知道、相信、记住并且认可。</p><p>何小鹏回答后,这个问题也吸引了雷军的注意。作为小鹏汽车的好“鹏”友,雷军也分享了一些自己对品牌命名的看法。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201127/32/w500h332/20201127/a42d-kentcvx8956655.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>雷军(图源网)</p><p>雷军表示,小米在成立之初,大家也讨论过公司叫什么,“红星”“红辣椒”“黑米”这些名字也都考虑过,但最后没有被采用。在后续的讨论中雷军突然想到了一句自己最喜欢的一句话——“佛观一粒米,大如须弥山”。当有人提议把公司叫作“大米”时,投资人刘芹说:“互联网天生回避大而全,我们不取大,取小,我们就叫小米吧。”这个名字立刻得到了所有人的认同,并且开始使用。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20201127/256/w600h3656/20201127/6c5c-kentcvx8956671.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>雷军回答全文</p><p>雷军表示,仅是一个听起来高端的名字不能带动公司的崛起。一个公司若缺了核心科技、少了好产品,不关注用户体验,叫破天也没用,相反,公司名字虽然简单平实,但上下齐心通过技术立业、苦练内功,最终都能得到奖赏并开始引领潮流。所以,事在人为,品牌价值绝不是名字带来的。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>名字土?何小鹏回应小鹏汽车命名由来 雷军谈小米命名</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n名字土?何小鹏回应小鹏汽车命名由来 雷军谈小米命名\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-27 15:05 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-27/doc-iiznctke3581687.shtml><strong>CNMO</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:名字土?何小鹏回应小鹏汽车命名由来 雷军谈小米命名 【手机中国新闻】近日,有知乎网友提问,最近发现不少人一味觉得国产品牌以创始人命名“土”而对产品完全忽略,这似乎有点本末倒置,而许多外国公司都是以创始人姓名来命名的,比如福特、本田、丰田、爱马仕、Gucci等,“为什么许多国外品牌以创始人名字命名我们觉得高大上,而中国品牌以创始人命名却难以接受?”此问题一出,居然引来了小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏和...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-27/doc-iiznctke3581687.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2bd00d9daec8cf50fe6279e52ab8044","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","01810":"小米集团-W","KC":"金山云"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2020-11-27/doc-iiznctke3581687.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2086738958","content_text":"原标题:名字土?何小鹏回应小鹏汽车命名由来 雷军谈小米命名 【手机中国新闻】近日,有知乎网友提问,最近发现不少人一味觉得国产品牌以创始人命名“土”而对产品完全忽略,这似乎有点本末倒置,而许多外国公司都是以创始人姓名来命名的,比如福特、本田、丰田、爱马仕、Gucci等,“为什么许多国外品牌以创始人名字命名我们觉得高大上,而中国品牌以创始人命名却难以接受?”此问题一出,居然引来了小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏和小米公司创始人、董事长兼CEO雷军来作答。何小鹏(图源网)何小鹏表示,“感觉这个问题为小鹏汽车而设,我来回答再适合不过了。”首先,何小鹏分享了“小鹏汽车”这个名字的由来。何小鹏介绍称,6年前小鹏汽车刚成立时,他担任的是天使投资人。品牌创立初期,需要一个喊得响的名称。“小鹏汽车”最早的名称叫“橙子汽车”,但是当他们准备了好几个商标、名称准备注册时,才发现很多好的名字已经被占用注册了,独独给“小鹏汽车”留下了空白。何小鹏坦言称,将公司名称取名为“小鹏汽车”,当时何小鹏是“有顾虑的”,因为“作为投资人,起到的作用应该是帮忙不添乱,最大的忌讳是最后把自己连钱带人都投了进去。”但最终还是说服了自己和家人。小鹏汽车何小鹏表示,产品实力的高低,才是决定一个品牌高低的终极因素,而不单纯取决于一个符号或者一个名字。一个响亮的品牌名称当然是一个加分项,但核心离不开过硬的技术研发、高品质的产品体验以及良好的服务体系。无论是小鹏汽车,还是它的英文名XPENG,只要坚持在产品的科技智能和制造的品质工艺上做到足够好,最终这个品牌一定会让消费者知道、相信、记住并且认可。何小鹏回答后,这个问题也吸引了雷军的注意。作为小鹏汽车的好“鹏”友,雷军也分享了一些自己对品牌命名的看法。雷军(图源网)雷军表示,小米在成立之初,大家也讨论过公司叫什么,“红星”“红辣椒”“黑米”这些名字也都考虑过,但最后没有被采用。在后续的讨论中雷军突然想到了一句自己最喜欢的一句话——“佛观一粒米,大如须弥山”。当有人提议把公司叫作“大米”时,投资人刘芹说:“互联网天生回避大而全,我们不取大,取小,我们就叫小米吧。”这个名字立刻得到了所有人的认同,并且开始使用。雷军回答全文雷军表示,仅是一个听起来高端的名字不能带动公司的崛起。一个公司若缺了核心科技、少了好产品,不关注用户体验,叫破天也没用,相反,公司名字虽然简单平实,但上下齐心通过技术立业、苦练内功,最终都能得到奖赏并开始引领潮流。所以,事在人为,品牌价值绝不是名字带来的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393521565,"gmtCreate":1606323467957,"gmtModify":1703842677656,"author":{"id":"3560130928228615","authorId":"3560130928228615","name":"减肥的小猫咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f589440331155b01570300a4b6a9bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560130928228615","authorIdStr":"3560130928228615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302182293","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468582811369800","authorId":"3468582811369800","name":"特朗普他远房大表哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90a63e507b13a8af3eef54fbe7bed4ec","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3468582811369800","authorIdStr":"3468582811369800"},"content":"财报怎么看?","text":"财报怎么看?","html":"财报怎么看?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":306699288,"gmtCreate":1604370023444,"gmtModify":1703832711751,"author":{"id":"3560130928228615","authorId":"3560130928228615","name":"减肥的小猫咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f589440331155b01570300a4b6a9bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560130928228615","authorIdStr":"3560130928228615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"破发吧","listText":"破发吧","text":"破发吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/306699288","repostId":"2080932868","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2080932868","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1604366888,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2080932868?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-03 09:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"蚂蚁缘何“惹火上身”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2080932868","media":"虎嗅APP","summary":" #本篇从属于虎嗅新推出的栏目“闪亮IPO”。 11月2日晚间,“马云被约谈”的消息不胫而走,舆论瞬间被引爆。 证监会网站消息显示,中国人民银行、中国银保监会、中国证监会和国家外汇管理局对蚂蚁集团实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。 原本,随着蚂蚁集团即将上市,如何对金融科技巨头进行有效监管,一直是资本市场的热议话题。","content":"<p>11月2日晚间,“马云被约谈”的消息不胫而走,舆论瞬间被引爆。</p><p>证监会网站消息显示,中国人民银行、中国银保监会、中国证监会和国家外汇管理局对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06688\">蚂蚁集团</a>实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。</p><p>原本,随着蚂蚁集团即将上市,如何对金融科技巨头进行有效监管,一直是资本市场的热议话题。就在监管约谈前一天,央行旗下《金融时报》发表文章,阐述了大型互联网公司进入金融行业的潜在风险与监管。</p><p>文章表示,要警惕大型互联网公司开展金融业务带来的市场垄断、监管套利、数据安全及保护、信息科技监管有效性以及更易处罚系统性风险等一系列问题。为此,监管层应加强顶层设计,明确市场准入,严格金融业务准入和持牌经营要求,强化功能监管,保持监管一致性。</p><p>这篇文章似乎是金融监管层放出的一个答案,回应了马云在上海掀起的那场关于新金融和传统金融的辩论。</p><p>不知大家是否注意到,马云在《外滩金融峰会》上那番话,虽然直指银行和监管,却没有涉及基金、保险、证券等其他传统金融机构,这其实反映了蚂蚁集团与传统金融机构之间一种很微妙的竞合关系。</p><p>趁着市场对蚂蚁上市的争论,虎嗅和一些传统金融从业者聊了聊,他们如何看待蚂蚁集团的成长和模式,以及从中学到了哪些启示。</p><p><b>提问一:银行股为何被“嫌弃”?</b></p><p>“1500亿美元、2000亿美元、2800亿美元……”</p><p>随着蚂蚁集团7月20日披露即将在A+H股同步上市的消息,有关蚂蚁集团估值上涨的传闻,不断刺激着传统金融从业者的神经。</p><p>此次,蚂蚁集团A+H股拟募资规模为345亿美元,对应着远期市盈率约为40倍,一举打破沙特阿美在2019年以294亿美元募资额所创下的全球最大IPO记录。</p><p>直到10月26日,蚂蚁集团正式确认本次A股发行价为68.80元/股,按照发行价的总市值最终定格在3130亿美元。按此市值排名,蚂蚁集团一举超过“工农中建交邮”六大国有银行,甚至超过上市银行市值第一的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>。</p><p>要知道这些大型银行,要么历经百年而不衰,要么掌管几十万亿资产,而蚂蚁集团成立不过短短16年,总资产是工行的百分之一,年净利润不足工行的十分之一。</p><p>这不禁让人产生疑问:为何工行市盈率仅6倍不到,而蚂蚁市盈率却高达40倍?</p><p>要回答这个问题,我们要从三个方面来看待:</p><p>一是:过去二十年,全球市值排名靠前上市公司的变化趋势是什么?</p><p>二是:蚂蚁集团未来的想象空间有多大?</p><p>三是:如何冷静对待资本对蚂蚁集团上市的热捧?</p><p>如果对比1997—2020年这24年全球市值排名前十上市公司的变化,你会发现一个很有趣的现象——即传统能源和金融上市公司逐渐减少,新兴互联网科技上市公司占据主流,这个变化趋势在2008年后更加明显。</p><p>放眼国内,上市银行最近十年的估值一直很低,以至于很多人形成一种“银行股估值低”的刻板印象。某种意义上,金融科技公司努力撕下金融标签,凸显科技属性,也是害怕被这种刻板印象所误伤。</p><p>对此,苏宁金融研究院副院长薛洪言称,银行股并非一直市值低迷。2006年以前,银行业批量股改上市,业绩增长十分迅猛,受欢迎程度不亚于当前的医疗科技股。</p><p>2008年金融危机后,受宏观经济和行业增速影响,银行估值水平一路下滑。尤其是在2012年后,中国GDP增速下台阶,银行业遭遇对公贷款萎缩、不良率攀升的双重打击,盈利增速持续下滑,逐渐滑落到个位数,市场热度也从被追捧变成被嫌弃。</p><p>薛洪言进一步解释,“股票估值是企业未来现金流的折现,银行利润增速持续下滑,估值水平也随之跌入底部,再也没能爬起来。”</p><p>银行股市盈率偏低,放眼全球也是一种普遍现象。</p><p>美国次贷危机之后,巴塞尔协议III出台,对全球银行业的监管力度明显加强,在提高资本充足率、引入杠杆率以及加强流动性管理等方面的金融监管进一步强化,这令全球银行股的市盈率普遍下降。</p><p>而国内银行股市盈率的偏低,主要是中国经济降速、房地产业宏观调控、利率双轨制改革、监管让利、银行净息差收窄、行业竞争性加强以及解禁潮等多方面因素形成的。</p><p>当金融行业遭遇愈加严格的监管,而互联网科技由于网络效应的存在,通常会形成“赢家通吃”的局面,带来成百上千倍的利润,后者自然会成为资本的“宠儿”。</p><p><b>提问二:蚂蚁的天花板有多高?</b></p><p>蚂蚁集团从互联网科技入手,利用其长期服务积累的客户数据和大数据处理技术,打破了传统金融机构对金融服务的垄断,未来的成长空间可想而知。</p><p>蚂蚁招股书显示,集团的主要收入来自四个板块,分别是数字支付与商家服务、微贷科技平台、理财科技平台和保险科技平台。而下图可以直观看出,支付板块所占比重有所降低,微贷、理财和保险三大板块所占比重在持续上升。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider2020113/75/w1000h675/20201103/e159-kcieyvz7900460.png\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"675\"></p><p>对于未来增长潜力,蚂蚁集团CEO胡晓明在IPO路演时表示,蚂蚁集团所服务的金融服务业会有非常广阔的空间,这个天花板足够高、足够宽。</p><p>胡晓明对投资人具体的数据分析,如下所示:</p><p>第一,数字支付领域。过去12个月,支付宝交易规模是118万亿元。预计到2025年,支付宝会有412万亿元的交易规模,年度增长率为29%;</p><p>第二,微贷科技领域。蚂蚁集团旗下花呗、借呗、网商贷共有2.2万亿元的信贷余额。预计2025年,中国会有50万亿元的微贷规模,而蚂蚁只占2025年规模的4%;</p><p>第三,理财科技领域。蚂蚁集团理财规模是4.1万亿元。预计到2025年,中国财富管理是287万亿元的规模,而蚂蚁只占到3%不到;</p><p>第四,保险科技领域。蚂蚁集团保险收入是518亿元。预见到2025年,中国保险市场规模是9万亿元,蚂蚁在保险的增长空间还是非常大。</p><p>不过,这个故事真如胡晓明说的那么美好吗?在某些投资人那看来,未必!</p><p>10月29日,有“私募魔女”之称的半夏投资创始人李蓓表示,“未来几个月,蚂蚁的股价不好说。但从长期价值的角度,我肯定不会去买蚂蚁。”</p><p>她对此解释称,投资界有一个类似于谚语的说法,“每一个巨无霸的上市,特别大的IPO往往都是一个时代的顶点。”</p><p>这个顶点指的不是股价的顶点,而是一个时代高潮的顶点。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>在2007年上市,对应的是大宗商品的一个十年大牛市的顶点。</p><p>李蓓认为,蚂蚁崛起的背后,其实也代表一个时代。只不过,这个时代正在转变。</p><p>第一,移动互联网时代的红利逐渐消逝。经过过去十几年的快速发展,移动互联网从高新技术变成了基础设施,所有人几乎都是移动互联网的活跃用户。这意味着移动互联网的高增长阶段已经过去,后面可能会进入一个存量竞争的阶段;</p><p>第二,蚂蚁用户的资产质量变得更不可控。过去十几年,中国居民杠杆不断提高,带来了房地产市场繁荣,形成了正循环效应,即地产拉动就业—就业提高收入—收入促进消费。不过,这种居民杠杆与房地产的相互作用,在未来几个季度就要结束;</p><p>第三,全球低利率环境发生逆转,未来会出现长期通胀。这种长期通胀背后有四大原因:一是去全球化带来的通胀,二是美元贬值的大周期,三是互联网带来成本下降结束,互联网寡头开始追求垄断利润,四是产能周期逆转。</p><p>而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601916\">浙商银行</a>原行长、上海新金融研究院副院长刘晓春对虎嗅的形容则更加有趣:“投资者一般分为两种:一种喜欢诗与远方,另一种选择眼前的苟且。最近十年,科技公司比金融公司更加受到资本青睐,主要源自于前者,但是诗与远方能走多远是个问题。”</p><p><b>提问三:马云为何激辩监管?</b></p><p>蚂蚁集团是什么?这是蚂蚁集团要在上市之前要向全世界投资人解释的另一个问题。</p><p>在宣布IPO前夕,蚂蚁启动了改名,将蚂蚁金服改为蚂蚁集团,全称是“蚂蚁科技集团股份有限公司”。官方对此强调的是:蚂蚁是一家科技公司,而不是一家金融公司。</p><p>梳理蚂蚁成立以来对外宣传口径,从互联网金融、科技金融再到科技的定位。蚂蚁金服改名后,一些学者对此解读称,蚂蚁有逃避金融监管的嫌疑。</p><p>2004年,马云在达沃斯年会上,意识到中国电子商务发展,首先要解决电子支付问题。于是,他紧急启动支付宝项目,鼓励下属的话是——“如果需要坐牢,我去”。这句话不是马云要去坐牢,而是在任何国家,金融创新都是要冒险的。</p><p>这些年来,蚂蚁在金融监管上吃过不少苦头。支付宝在理财平台招财宝吃过亏,与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QD\">趣店</a>合作消费贷被指校园贷,推出芝麻信用不得不缩小应用范围,信贷产品ABS杠杆率过高不得不补足资本金,推广“无现金社会”时还被央行严厉批评。</p><p>作为一款支付应用,支付宝害怕用户用完即走,长期以来存在流量焦虑,也走过不少弯路。这种焦虑感在一个春节爆发到顶点。2015年,微信支付用一个春晚红包,抢走支付宝一半市场。当时大年初一,马云紧急召集高管,从全世界各地立刻回国商量对策。</p><p>不过,这也成为支付宝突破支付应用的转折点。</p><p>支付宝先是在2013年推出余额宝,瞄准的是货币基金市场,随存随取、利率高于银行活期存款的特点,让余额宝迅速走红。此后,蚂蚁相继推出花呗、借呗、芝麻信用、蚂蚁森林、相互宝等网红产品。</p><p>现在的蚂蚁集团,在国际上已找不到任何一家对标公司。以至于《经济学人》杂志将之称为世界上最全的金融科技平台——可以把它想象成Apple Pay(离线支付)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>(在线支付)、Venmo(转账)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MA\">万事达</a>卡(信用卡)、摩根大通(消费金融)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEME\">iShares</a>(投资)的结合体,外加保险紧急业务,全都整合在一款移动应用里。</p><p>显然,马云对于这种表述是不会满意的。他在蚂蚁集团上市准备时,一直对投行强调的是,要找科技分析师而不是金融分析师,对蚂蚁集团进行估值。</p><p>从2017年到2019年,蚂蚁集团的营收翻了一倍,市场对其估值却翻了七倍。在2020年,蚂蚁集团的最终估值定格在3130亿美元。</p><p>一边享受着科技股高估值的红利,一边在公开场合炮轰传统银行是“当铺思维”、嘲讽巴塞尔协议像是“一个老年人俱乐部”、扼杀创新,甚至指出“中国金融问题不是系统性风险,而是缺乏金融生态系统”……</p><p>这能不引起金融监管层的“愤怒”吗?当时,台下坐的是央行前行长、政协副主席,还有上海市委书记。</p><p>长期从事金融的财经作家嵇少峰对虎嗅表示,“金融科技公司是金融机构还是科技公司?巴塞尔协议是不是已经过时,要不要控制杠杆率?我相信这才是马云激辩监管的根本原因。”</p><p>嵇少峰认为,虽然蚂蚁一直在去金融化,转型数字科技,但是信贷在其主营业务的绝对占比和极高的杠杆率,一直被监管部门和资本市场重点关注。</p><p><b>提问四:蚂蚁主营业务存在什么问题?</b></p><p>翻开蚂蚁集团的招股书,嵇少峰以及刘晓春等受访者指出其主营业务存在的一些问题,下面分为三大部分阐述。</p><p><b>一是,蚂蚁主要利润是放贷业务。</b></p><p>截至2020年6月末,微贷科技平台为蚂蚁集团创造了285.83亿元营收,占到总营收的39.41%,已超营收260亿元的支付业务,其占比是35.86%。其中,与信贷相关的净利润是101.56亿元,占到蚂蚁集团总利润213.42亿元的47.8%。</p><p>目前,蚂蚁集团共计有2.15万亿元的信贷规模,其中经营贷余额是0.42万亿元,剩下的是1.73万亿元是消费贷余额。这些消费贷平均年化利率是15%,几乎擦着最高法对民间借贷最高年化利率15.4%的红线,而且很多用户属于次级信用,即是信用资质较差的人群。</p><p>蚂蚁对此解释是,这些人群不是信用资质较差,只是传统金融机构服务不到他们,蚂蚁通过大数据风控,敢于给他们提供金融服务。很多传统金融机构僵化的机制,很难做到小微信贷和普惠金融。但金融科技公司自以为是的金融创新,打开的也可能是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0NQC.UK\">潘多拉</a>魔盒。</p><p>从互联网金融兴起,到P2P机构泛滥,直至大规模爆雷。监管对于金融科技所谓的创新,一直缺乏必要的监管,总是在出现问题后进行一刀切。</p><p>此番,嵇少峰接连提出几大质问:我们想象中试图通过科技金融,解决小微信贷与普惠金融难题,是不是有点过于乐观,是不是在道德上拔高自己?难道普惠金融就是放高息的消费贷,诱导年轻人去借15%年化利率去过度金融消费,究竟是帮助他们,还是害了他们?</p><p><b>二是,大数据风控没那么神秘。</b></p><p>从事银行业30多年的刘晓春看待很多金融问题总是一针见血。他指出,“放贷其实很简单,关键是如何收回来?”</p><p>他表示,不要把大数据风控神秘化,没有大数据时候,银行放贷也是有风控模型。所谓模型,就是在各类数据之间找规律,然后根据规律来确定贷款规则。大数据风控背后的风控逻辑,与银行风控逻辑相同。</p><p>刘晓春强调,科技再到位,也要按照金融的规律办事。不管是什么公司,放贷一定会有约束条件。黑社会放高利贷,都会提前确认你家是不是有房子。金融科技公司敢于放贷,也是有约束条件的,只是可能从抵押物,变成提交个人通信录。“前段时间,暴力催贷不就是一些金融科技公司干的,用科技手段干的。”</p><p>嵇少锋认为,蚂蚁之所以做得这么大,核心优势不是大数据风控能力,而是基于阿里经济体的场景消费,这是银行所不具备的能力。“信贷是很传统的东西,蚂蚁做的消费信贷跟银行信用卡差不多。只是银行基于传统场景,蚂蚁基于线上场景。”</p><p>不过,蚂蚁这种基于个人数据的放贷方式,未来可能面临监管风险。很多个人数据在法律上,将纳入《个人隐私法》的保护,需要进行脱敏化处理。消费者也会更加关注个人隐私的保护,而不是任由互联网巨头随意采集分析。</p><p><b>三是,万亿规模的联合贷款,究竟谁来兜底?</b></p><p>最近两年,联合贷款是蚂蚁集团力推的贷款模式。所谓联合贷款,可以作为助贷模式的一种,就是两家持牌机构,共同出资、共同承担风险和分享收益,也可以看成简化版的银团贷款,这种银团模式已经有百年历史,并不新鲜。</p><p>招股书显示,蚂蚁集团的2.15万亿元的信贷规模,只有2%的资金是自有资金,98%的资金来自合作银行和发行ABS。蚂蚁自营的两家放贷主体,是设在重庆的两家网贷公司,分别对应着花呗和借呗。</p><p>蚂蚁和银行合作模式是,银行提供大部分资金,蚂蚁只提供少量资金,主要负责贷款审批、风险管理、还款和贷后管理的流程。蚂蚁将这个流程称之为“技术服务费”,并从放贷利息中收取30%,属于最大的利润来源。</p><p>然而,这种模式突破了两方面的监管,一是对网贷公司资本金和杠杆率的限制,二是突破了巴塞尔协议对于银行表外资本的限制。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>首席经济学家丁安华对此评价称,金融科技创新超越了现有的金融监管框架和理念,使得蚂蚁集团一定程度可以很巧妙地规避了现有金融监管框架。</p><p>嵇少锋的评论则更加犀利,中小银行基本没有能力对蚂蚁提供的客户进行有效风控,只能看天吃饭,赌蚂蚁的能力与信用。但如果银行不能进行有效风控,蚂蚁用区区几百亿元资金,撬动起几万亿元的信贷规模,最后的风险谁来兜底?</p><p><b>写在最后</b></p><p>如今,蚂蚁集团是中国最大的第三方支付平台,最大的线上消费信贷平台、最大的小微经营信贷平台、最大的线上理财服务平台和最大的线上保险服务平台。</p><p>在金融牌照上,蚂蚁集团拥有银行、支付、小额贷款、基金、基金销售、期货、保险代理等金融领域的牌照,并正在组建消费金融公司。</p><p>随着不断与传统金融机构展开合作,蚂蚁集团对于中国金融体系的影响,已不亚于一家大型商业银行。</p><p>经济观察报认为,无论从规模、结构和业务复杂度,还是与其他金融机构关联性,或者在金融体系中提供难以替代的关键服务,蚂蚁集团都可被认定是一家“系统重要性金融机构”。</p><p>央行副行长、外管局局长潘功胜最近在多个公开场合表示,要加强对系统性重要金融机构和金融控股集团的监管,“人民银行将于11月1日正式向市场开放金融控股集团设立的申请”。而蚂蚁集团此前明确表示,会设立金融控股集团,接受更严格的监管。</p><p>11月2日,在香港金融科技周的主题会议上,央行行长易纲就大型科技公司与传统商业银行的竞争、金融产业新趋势、消费者隐私保护等问题提出了自己的看法。</p><p>对于大科技公司对金融行业的影响,易纲表示:金融科技和大科技公司打来了效率的提升,并降低了成本,是金融创新的重要部分。他还提到,大科技公司显著提高了金融服务水平,尤其是偏远地区的金融服务都有所改善,这是以前难以想象的。</p><p>不过,最让易纲夜不能寐的问题还是消费者保护问题。随着金融科技的不断发展,商业秘密的保护和消费者个人隐私的保护,对于央行是一个极大的挑战。</p><p>这些来自监管层的信号,对于蚂蚁集团上市会造成什么影响,还需要进一步评估。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n蚂蚁缘何“惹火上身”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-03 09:28 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-11-03/doc-iiznctkc9150049.shtml><strong>虎嗅APP</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>11月2日晚间,“马云被约谈”的消息不胫而走,舆论瞬间被引爆。证监会网站消息显示,中国人民银行、中国银保监会、中国证监会和国家外汇管理局对蚂蚁集团实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。原本,随着蚂蚁集团即将上市,如何对金融科技巨头进行有效监管,一直是资本市场的热议话题。就在监管约谈前一天,央行旗下《金融时报》发表文章,阐述了大型互联网公司进入金融行业的潜在风险与监管。文章表示,要...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-11-03/doc-iiznctkc9150049.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95414d8312d8ee2d8fac46fd621f61e7","relate_stocks":{"06688":"蚂蚁集团","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2020-11-03/doc-iiznctkc9150049.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2080932868","content_text":"11月2日晚间,“马云被约谈”的消息不胫而走,舆论瞬间被引爆。证监会网站消息显示,中国人民银行、中国银保监会、中国证监会和国家外汇管理局对蚂蚁集团实际控制人马云、董事长井贤栋、总裁胡晓明进行了监管约谈。原本,随着蚂蚁集团即将上市,如何对金融科技巨头进行有效监管,一直是资本市场的热议话题。就在监管约谈前一天,央行旗下《金融时报》发表文章,阐述了大型互联网公司进入金融行业的潜在风险与监管。文章表示,要警惕大型互联网公司开展金融业务带来的市场垄断、监管套利、数据安全及保护、信息科技监管有效性以及更易处罚系统性风险等一系列问题。为此,监管层应加强顶层设计,明确市场准入,严格金融业务准入和持牌经营要求,强化功能监管,保持监管一致性。这篇文章似乎是金融监管层放出的一个答案,回应了马云在上海掀起的那场关于新金融和传统金融的辩论。不知大家是否注意到,马云在《外滩金融峰会》上那番话,虽然直指银行和监管,却没有涉及基金、保险、证券等其他传统金融机构,这其实反映了蚂蚁集团与传统金融机构之间一种很微妙的竞合关系。趁着市场对蚂蚁上市的争论,虎嗅和一些传统金融从业者聊了聊,他们如何看待蚂蚁集团的成长和模式,以及从中学到了哪些启示。提问一:银行股为何被“嫌弃”?“1500亿美元、2000亿美元、2800亿美元……”随着蚂蚁集团7月20日披露即将在A+H股同步上市的消息,有关蚂蚁集团估值上涨的传闻,不断刺激着传统金融从业者的神经。此次,蚂蚁集团A+H股拟募资规模为345亿美元,对应着远期市盈率约为40倍,一举打破沙特阿美在2019年以294亿美元募资额所创下的全球最大IPO记录。直到10月26日,蚂蚁集团正式确认本次A股发行价为68.80元/股,按照发行价的总市值最终定格在3130亿美元。按此市值排名,蚂蚁集团一举超过“工农中建交邮”六大国有银行,甚至超过上市银行市值第一的摩根大通。要知道这些大型银行,要么历经百年而不衰,要么掌管几十万亿资产,而蚂蚁集团成立不过短短16年,总资产是工行的百分之一,年净利润不足工行的十分之一。这不禁让人产生疑问:为何工行市盈率仅6倍不到,而蚂蚁市盈率却高达40倍?要回答这个问题,我们要从三个方面来看待:一是:过去二十年,全球市值排名靠前上市公司的变化趋势是什么?二是:蚂蚁集团未来的想象空间有多大?三是:如何冷静对待资本对蚂蚁集团上市的热捧?如果对比1997—2020年这24年全球市值排名前十上市公司的变化,你会发现一个很有趣的现象——即传统能源和金融上市公司逐渐减少,新兴互联网科技上市公司占据主流,这个变化趋势在2008年后更加明显。放眼国内,上市银行最近十年的估值一直很低,以至于很多人形成一种“银行股估值低”的刻板印象。某种意义上,金融科技公司努力撕下金融标签,凸显科技属性,也是害怕被这种刻板印象所误伤。对此,苏宁金融研究院副院长薛洪言称,银行股并非一直市值低迷。2006年以前,银行业批量股改上市,业绩增长十分迅猛,受欢迎程度不亚于当前的医疗科技股。2008年金融危机后,受宏观经济和行业增速影响,银行估值水平一路下滑。尤其是在2012年后,中国GDP增速下台阶,银行业遭遇对公贷款萎缩、不良率攀升的双重打击,盈利增速持续下滑,逐渐滑落到个位数,市场热度也从被追捧变成被嫌弃。薛洪言进一步解释,“股票估值是企业未来现金流的折现,银行利润增速持续下滑,估值水平也随之跌入底部,再也没能爬起来。”银行股市盈率偏低,放眼全球也是一种普遍现象。美国次贷危机之后,巴塞尔协议III出台,对全球银行业的监管力度明显加强,在提高资本充足率、引入杠杆率以及加强流动性管理等方面的金融监管进一步强化,这令全球银行股的市盈率普遍下降。而国内银行股市盈率的偏低,主要是中国经济降速、房地产业宏观调控、利率双轨制改革、监管让利、银行净息差收窄、行业竞争性加强以及解禁潮等多方面因素形成的。当金融行业遭遇愈加严格的监管,而互联网科技由于网络效应的存在,通常会形成“赢家通吃”的局面,带来成百上千倍的利润,后者自然会成为资本的“宠儿”。提问二:蚂蚁的天花板有多高?蚂蚁集团从互联网科技入手,利用其长期服务积累的客户数据和大数据处理技术,打破了传统金融机构对金融服务的垄断,未来的成长空间可想而知。蚂蚁招股书显示,集团的主要收入来自四个板块,分别是数字支付与商家服务、微贷科技平台、理财科技平台和保险科技平台。而下图可以直观看出,支付板块所占比重有所降低,微贷、理财和保险三大板块所占比重在持续上升。对于未来增长潜力,蚂蚁集团CEO胡晓明在IPO路演时表示,蚂蚁集团所服务的金融服务业会有非常广阔的空间,这个天花板足够高、足够宽。胡晓明对投资人具体的数据分析,如下所示:第一,数字支付领域。过去12个月,支付宝交易规模是118万亿元。预计到2025年,支付宝会有412万亿元的交易规模,年度增长率为29%;第二,微贷科技领域。蚂蚁集团旗下花呗、借呗、网商贷共有2.2万亿元的信贷余额。预计2025年,中国会有50万亿元的微贷规模,而蚂蚁只占2025年规模的4%;第三,理财科技领域。蚂蚁集团理财规模是4.1万亿元。预计到2025年,中国财富管理是287万亿元的规模,而蚂蚁只占到3%不到;第四,保险科技领域。蚂蚁集团保险收入是518亿元。预见到2025年,中国保险市场规模是9万亿元,蚂蚁在保险的增长空间还是非常大。不过,这个故事真如胡晓明说的那么美好吗?在某些投资人那看来,未必!10月29日,有“私募魔女”之称的半夏投资创始人李蓓表示,“未来几个月,蚂蚁的股价不好说。但从长期价值的角度,我肯定不会去买蚂蚁。”她对此解释称,投资界有一个类似于谚语的说法,“每一个巨无霸的上市,特别大的IPO往往都是一个时代的顶点。”这个顶点指的不是股价的顶点,而是一个时代高潮的顶点。比如中石油在2007年上市,对应的是大宗商品的一个十年大牛市的顶点。李蓓认为,蚂蚁崛起的背后,其实也代表一个时代。只不过,这个时代正在转变。第一,移动互联网时代的红利逐渐消逝。经过过去十几年的快速发展,移动互联网从高新技术变成了基础设施,所有人几乎都是移动互联网的活跃用户。这意味着移动互联网的高增长阶段已经过去,后面可能会进入一个存量竞争的阶段;第二,蚂蚁用户的资产质量变得更不可控。过去十几年,中国居民杠杆不断提高,带来了房地产市场繁荣,形成了正循环效应,即地产拉动就业—就业提高收入—收入促进消费。不过,这种居民杠杆与房地产的相互作用,在未来几个季度就要结束;第三,全球低利率环境发生逆转,未来会出现长期通胀。这种长期通胀背后有四大原因:一是去全球化带来的通胀,二是美元贬值的大周期,三是互联网带来成本下降结束,互联网寡头开始追求垄断利润,四是产能周期逆转。而浙商银行原行长、上海新金融研究院副院长刘晓春对虎嗅的形容则更加有趣:“投资者一般分为两种:一种喜欢诗与远方,另一种选择眼前的苟且。最近十年,科技公司比金融公司更加受到资本青睐,主要源自于前者,但是诗与远方能走多远是个问题。”提问三:马云为何激辩监管?蚂蚁集团是什么?这是蚂蚁集团要在上市之前要向全世界投资人解释的另一个问题。在宣布IPO前夕,蚂蚁启动了改名,将蚂蚁金服改为蚂蚁集团,全称是“蚂蚁科技集团股份有限公司”。官方对此强调的是:蚂蚁是一家科技公司,而不是一家金融公司。梳理蚂蚁成立以来对外宣传口径,从互联网金融、科技金融再到科技的定位。蚂蚁金服改名后,一些学者对此解读称,蚂蚁有逃避金融监管的嫌疑。2004年,马云在达沃斯年会上,意识到中国电子商务发展,首先要解决电子支付问题。于是,他紧急启动支付宝项目,鼓励下属的话是——“如果需要坐牢,我去”。这句话不是马云要去坐牢,而是在任何国家,金融创新都是要冒险的。这些年来,蚂蚁在金融监管上吃过不少苦头。支付宝在理财平台招财宝吃过亏,与趣店合作消费贷被指校园贷,推出芝麻信用不得不缩小应用范围,信贷产品ABS杠杆率过高不得不补足资本金,推广“无现金社会”时还被央行严厉批评。作为一款支付应用,支付宝害怕用户用完即走,长期以来存在流量焦虑,也走过不少弯路。这种焦虑感在一个春节爆发到顶点。2015年,微信支付用一个春晚红包,抢走支付宝一半市场。当时大年初一,马云紧急召集高管,从全世界各地立刻回国商量对策。不过,这也成为支付宝突破支付应用的转折点。支付宝先是在2013年推出余额宝,瞄准的是货币基金市场,随存随取、利率高于银行活期存款的特点,让余额宝迅速走红。此后,蚂蚁相继推出花呗、借呗、芝麻信用、蚂蚁森林、相互宝等网红产品。现在的蚂蚁集团,在国际上已找不到任何一家对标公司。以至于《经济学人》杂志将之称为世界上最全的金融科技平台——可以把它想象成Apple Pay(离线支付)、PayPal(在线支付)、Venmo(转账)、万事达卡(信用卡)、摩根大通(消费金融)和iShares(投资)的结合体,外加保险紧急业务,全都整合在一款移动应用里。显然,马云对于这种表述是不会满意的。他在蚂蚁集团上市准备时,一直对投行强调的是,要找科技分析师而不是金融分析师,对蚂蚁集团进行估值。从2017年到2019年,蚂蚁集团的营收翻了一倍,市场对其估值却翻了七倍。在2020年,蚂蚁集团的最终估值定格在3130亿美元。一边享受着科技股高估值的红利,一边在公开场合炮轰传统银行是“当铺思维”、嘲讽巴塞尔协议像是“一个老年人俱乐部”、扼杀创新,甚至指出“中国金融问题不是系统性风险,而是缺乏金融生态系统”……这能不引起金融监管层的“愤怒”吗?当时,台下坐的是央行前行长、政协副主席,还有上海市委书记。长期从事金融的财经作家嵇少峰对虎嗅表示,“金融科技公司是金融机构还是科技公司?巴塞尔协议是不是已经过时,要不要控制杠杆率?我相信这才是马云激辩监管的根本原因。”嵇少峰认为,虽然蚂蚁一直在去金融化,转型数字科技,但是信贷在其主营业务的绝对占比和极高的杠杆率,一直被监管部门和资本市场重点关注。提问四:蚂蚁主营业务存在什么问题?翻开蚂蚁集团的招股书,嵇少峰以及刘晓春等受访者指出其主营业务存在的一些问题,下面分为三大部分阐述。一是,蚂蚁主要利润是放贷业务。截至2020年6月末,微贷科技平台为蚂蚁集团创造了285.83亿元营收,占到总营收的39.41%,已超营收260亿元的支付业务,其占比是35.86%。其中,与信贷相关的净利润是101.56亿元,占到蚂蚁集团总利润213.42亿元的47.8%。目前,蚂蚁集团共计有2.15万亿元的信贷规模,其中经营贷余额是0.42万亿元,剩下的是1.73万亿元是消费贷余额。这些消费贷平均年化利率是15%,几乎擦着最高法对民间借贷最高年化利率15.4%的红线,而且很多用户属于次级信用,即是信用资质较差的人群。蚂蚁对此解释是,这些人群不是信用资质较差,只是传统金融机构服务不到他们,蚂蚁通过大数据风控,敢于给他们提供金融服务。很多传统金融机构僵化的机制,很难做到小微信贷和普惠金融。但金融科技公司自以为是的金融创新,打开的也可能是潘多拉魔盒。从互联网金融兴起,到P2P机构泛滥,直至大规模爆雷。监管对于金融科技所谓的创新,一直缺乏必要的监管,总是在出现问题后进行一刀切。此番,嵇少峰接连提出几大质问:我们想象中试图通过科技金融,解决小微信贷与普惠金融难题,是不是有点过于乐观,是不是在道德上拔高自己?难道普惠金融就是放高息的消费贷,诱导年轻人去借15%年化利率去过度金融消费,究竟是帮助他们,还是害了他们?二是,大数据风控没那么神秘。从事银行业30多年的刘晓春看待很多金融问题总是一针见血。他指出,“放贷其实很简单,关键是如何收回来?”他表示,不要把大数据风控神秘化,没有大数据时候,银行放贷也是有风控模型。所谓模型,就是在各类数据之间找规律,然后根据规律来确定贷款规则。大数据风控背后的风控逻辑,与银行风控逻辑相同。刘晓春强调,科技再到位,也要按照金融的规律办事。不管是什么公司,放贷一定会有约束条件。黑社会放高利贷,都会提前确认你家是不是有房子。金融科技公司敢于放贷,也是有约束条件的,只是可能从抵押物,变成提交个人通信录。“前段时间,暴力催贷不就是一些金融科技公司干的,用科技手段干的。”嵇少锋认为,蚂蚁之所以做得这么大,核心优势不是大数据风控能力,而是基于阿里经济体的场景消费,这是银行所不具备的能力。“信贷是很传统的东西,蚂蚁做的消费信贷跟银行信用卡差不多。只是银行基于传统场景,蚂蚁基于线上场景。”不过,蚂蚁这种基于个人数据的放贷方式,未来可能面临监管风险。很多个人数据在法律上,将纳入《个人隐私法》的保护,需要进行脱敏化处理。消费者也会更加关注个人隐私的保护,而不是任由互联网巨头随意采集分析。三是,万亿规模的联合贷款,究竟谁来兜底?最近两年,联合贷款是蚂蚁集团力推的贷款模式。所谓联合贷款,可以作为助贷模式的一种,就是两家持牌机构,共同出资、共同承担风险和分享收益,也可以看成简化版的银团贷款,这种银团模式已经有百年历史,并不新鲜。招股书显示,蚂蚁集团的2.15万亿元的信贷规模,只有2%的资金是自有资金,98%的资金来自合作银行和发行ABS。蚂蚁自营的两家放贷主体,是设在重庆的两家网贷公司,分别对应着花呗和借呗。蚂蚁和银行合作模式是,银行提供大部分资金,蚂蚁只提供少量资金,主要负责贷款审批、风险管理、还款和贷后管理的流程。蚂蚁将这个流程称之为“技术服务费”,并从放贷利息中收取30%,属于最大的利润来源。然而,这种模式突破了两方面的监管,一是对网贷公司资本金和杠杆率的限制,二是突破了巴塞尔协议对于银行表外资本的限制。招商银行首席经济学家丁安华对此评价称,金融科技创新超越了现有的金融监管框架和理念,使得蚂蚁集团一定程度可以很巧妙地规避了现有金融监管框架。嵇少锋的评论则更加犀利,中小银行基本没有能力对蚂蚁提供的客户进行有效风控,只能看天吃饭,赌蚂蚁的能力与信用。但如果银行不能进行有效风控,蚂蚁用区区几百亿元资金,撬动起几万亿元的信贷规模,最后的风险谁来兜底?写在最后如今,蚂蚁集团是中国最大的第三方支付平台,最大的线上消费信贷平台、最大的小微经营信贷平台、最大的线上理财服务平台和最大的线上保险服务平台。在金融牌照上,蚂蚁集团拥有银行、支付、小额贷款、基金、基金销售、期货、保险代理等金融领域的牌照,并正在组建消费金融公司。随着不断与传统金融机构展开合作,蚂蚁集团对于中国金融体系的影响,已不亚于一家大型商业银行。经济观察报认为,无论从规模、结构和业务复杂度,还是与其他金融机构关联性,或者在金融体系中提供难以替代的关键服务,蚂蚁集团都可被认定是一家“系统重要性金融机构”。央行副行长、外管局局长潘功胜最近在多个公开场合表示,要加强对系统性重要金融机构和金融控股集团的监管,“人民银行将于11月1日正式向市场开放金融控股集团设立的申请”。而蚂蚁集团此前明确表示,会设立金融控股集团,接受更严格的监管。11月2日,在香港金融科技周的主题会议上,央行行长易纲就大型科技公司与传统商业银行的竞争、金融产业新趋势、消费者隐私保护等问题提出了自己的看法。对于大科技公司对金融行业的影响,易纲表示:金融科技和大科技公司打来了效率的提升,并降低了成本,是金融创新的重要部分。他还提到,大科技公司显著提高了金融服务水平,尤其是偏远地区的金融服务都有所改善,这是以前难以想象的。不过,最让易纲夜不能寐的问题还是消费者保护问题。随着金融科技的不断发展,商业秘密的保护和消费者个人隐私的保护,对于央行是一个极大的挑战。这些来自监管层的信号,对于蚂蚁集团上市会造成什么影响,还需要进一步评估。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303132823,"gmtCreate":1602991603162,"gmtModify":1703828454105,"author":{"id":"3560130928228615","authorId":"3560130928228615","name":"减肥的小猫咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f589440331155b01570300a4b6a9bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560130928228615","authorIdStr":"3560130928228615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"理想最近广告打的好凶啊,还找猴哥拍视频","listText":"理想最近广告打的好凶啊,还找猴哥拍视频","text":"理想最近广告打的好凶啊,还找猴哥拍视频","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303132823","repostId":"1167429303","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167429303","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1602986923,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167429303?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-18 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src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/39106fc15e0159db05059c0e5682f6b0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"12266\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2d72b3b80883991318369bf095c52b8\" tg-width=\"1080\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","listText":"卡西欧市值超过百达翡丽就能说明百达菲丽不行了?这逻辑不对啊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","text":"卡西欧市值超过百达翡丽就能说明百达菲丽不行了?这逻辑不对啊$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/303092418","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":393521565,"gmtCreate":1606323467957,"gmtModify":1703842677656,"author":{"id":"3560130928228615","authorId":"3560130928228615","name":"减肥的小猫咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f589440331155b01570300a4b6a9bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560130928228615","authorIdStr":"3560130928228615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>不知道说啥","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir 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href=http://wap.peopleapp.com/article/6055776/5968617><strong>人民日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2日举行的外交部例行记者会上,有记者提问:据报道,美国众议院本周可能会通过关于限制中国公司在美上市的议案。你对此有何评论?外交部发言人华春莹回答:我想你刚才提到的这个问题再次的表明,美国对中国的公司采取了歧视性的政策,是对中国企业进行政治打压。至于你提到的美国众议院要表决外国公司问责法案这个具体的问题,你可以向主管部门询问。我可以原则性地再跟你强调一下,在资本市场已经高度全球化的今天,有关各方...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://wap.peopleapp.com/article/6055776/5968617\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae6b3ec4ed112f437b0da43e3b4c0339","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://wap.peopleapp.com/article/6055776/5968617","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176811974","content_text":"在2日举行的外交部例行记者会上,有记者提问:据报道,美国众议院本周可能会通过关于限制中国公司在美上市的议案。你对此有何评论?外交部发言人华春莹回答:我想你刚才提到的这个问题再次的表明,美国对中国的公司采取了歧视性的政策,是对中国企业进行政治打压。至于你提到的美国众议院要表决外国公司问责法案这个具体的问题,你可以向主管部门询问。我可以原则性地再跟你强调一下,在资本市场已经高度全球化的今天,有关各方开诚布公地加强跨境监管合作,就保护投资者合法权益等议题来加强对话和合作才是解决问题的正道。我们坚决反对将证券监管政治化的做法。我们希望美方能够为外国的企业在美国投资和经营提供公平公正的环境,而不是想方设法设置层层障碍。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399547529,"gmtCreate":1606156547361,"gmtModify":1703841311537,"author":{"id":"3560130928228615","authorId":"3560130928228615","name":"减肥的小猫咪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f589440331155b01570300a4b6a9bf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3560130928228615","authorIdStr":"3560130928228615"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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