人人有功练的个人主页 - 老虎社区

人人有功练

人人有功练

永远不将自己置于危险境地

IP属地：河北

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2主题

0勋章

人人有功练

08-06

$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ 卖了，见好就收

人人有功练

08-05

吹吧

史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点

人人有功练

08-04

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 其实想入点，不过过2天又是财报了怕暴雷，算了不赌了

人人有功练

08-01

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ $联合健康(UNH)$ 都清仓了，去研究科技股巨头了，科技股虽然有时也跌的非常狠，但大概率总能涨回来有回本希望；但上边这类水货有时八辈子也别想回本

人人有功练

08-01

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 40见，川建国同志又趁乱搞事

人人有功练

07-31

$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 底在40

人人有功练

07-24

$联合健康(UNH)$ 请问发生了啥事

人人有功练

07-15

好好好，你说多少就是多少吧

中国第二季度GDP同比增长5.2%，超市场预期

人人有功练

07-10

把你们的蛋糕开放出些来就不会这么卷了

人民日报评论“外卖大战”！价格战没有赢家，创新才有未来

人人有功练

07-03

$GOOG 20260320 200.0 CALL$

人人有功练

06-10

$GOOG 20260320 200.0 CALL$

人人有功练

06-05

$TSLA 20251121 200.0 PUT$

人人有功练

06-05

$TSLA 20251017 200.0 PUT$

人人有功练

06-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

人人有功练

06-05

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

人人有功练

06-02

$特斯拉(TSLA)$

人人有功练

05-22

$GOOG 20260320 200.0 CALL$

人人有功练

05-19

$联合健康(UNH)$ 310平仓了一半，终于回本了，剩下的拿段时间，仓位轻了也拿得住，没办法，进入时机不是特别好平均成本有点高，那就少挣点

人人有功练

05-19

$联合健康(UNH)$

人人有功练

05-16

$联合健康(UNH)$ 还以为要9连跌，终于收盘涨一次

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ </a> 卖了，见好就收","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL\">$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ </a> 卖了，见好就收","text":"$AAPL 20260918 250.0 CALL$ 卖了，见好就收","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d898074d781058ff6acc8cab4cd7e08","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464768861413672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1136,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3461586073682313","authorId":"3461586073682313","name":"Leader","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/5c2573e1e23bea3da9040a94847c190b","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3461586073682313","authorIdStr":"3461586073682313"},"content":"不错，有眼光[财迷]","text":"不错，有眼光[财迷]","html":"不错，有眼光[财迷]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464266762895360,"gmtCreate":1754371504217,"gmtModify":1754371505773,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"吹吧","listText":"吹吧","text":"吹吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464266762895360","repostId":"2556875443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2556875443","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"你好，我们是凤凰网财经，全球华人都在看的财经公众号，传播最有价值的财经报道，你值得关注！欢迎访问：http://finance.ifeng.com/","home_visible":1,"media_name":"凤凰网财经","id":"1077578553","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6fb647077f1ce46dc341fc35c26e817"},"pubTimestamp":1754315134,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2556875443?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-04 21:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2556875443","media":"凤凰网财经","summary":"如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“即将到来的A股史诗级牛市会掀翻6124高点，并且把这一历史峰值‘踩’在脚下。”信汇泉总经理孙加滢近日在与凤凰网财经对话时，如此预测。</strong></p><p>今年6月底以来，A股表现持续强势，站上3600点的高位。在这一时间点上，投资者对牛市的期待也越来越高。孙加滢表示，现在已经来到史诗级牛市的起点。某种程度上，史诗级牛市的出现是一种必然——根据他的研究，全球进入工业化序列的国家，在进入工业化成熟阶段后，普遍出现股市的连续上涨，并且上涨幅度将“相当大”。</p><p>牛市何时到来？如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？以下为对话实录，在不改变原意的基础上有删减。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a41270d6e3d3d868e03c846e1ff8905\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>“炒股挣的钱很难留住”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾表示现在是史诗级牛市的起点，牛市何时到来？能“牛”到什么程度？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>目前大概率进入整体向上的周期，时间节点很难具体预测，只能说是一步步看宏观情况。我们偏向于本轮牛市很难超过2007年的牛市，因为那波是从998的低点涨到了6124，相当于六倍上涨。如果（本轮）从2600开始算起，以涨幅六倍计算，指数将升至15000点，这是让人很难想象的。但是这轮牛市的上涨空间和幅度，我们还是偏向会将6124这个高点掀翻，并且把它“踩”在脚下。只有这样才能体现所谓“史诗级牛市”的气魄。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>为什么会出现史诗级牛市？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们在做各个国家股市研究时发现，进入工业化序列的国家，都经历过长期震荡，并且震荡后出现一路向上的走势。比如韩国股市和日本股市，德国、法国、美国这些进入工业化序列的国家也出现类似情况。</p><p>我结合罗斯托工业化进程和达里奥国家生命周期，对此进行解读，能够解释这个现象。基本上在工业化起飞前和起飞阶段，股市都会经历长周期震荡，但是进入工业化成熟阶段，普遍出现一波股市的连续上涨，并且这种上涨可以称之为史诗级，因为在历史上观测到呈现高点不断突破、低点不断抬高，并且抬高的幅度相当大的过程，而且是在短短几年内。</p><p>像韩国股市，就在短短八年内完成了四倍到五倍的上涨。美国在1932年完成工业化成熟，实际上我们看到它的股市上涨，是从1932年一直到现在，将近100年的牛市。当然了，中间的每一次震荡周期时间也比较长，但总体是连续向上的。这是我们当时做完研究后的结论。</p><p>虽然现在看，“史诗级牛市将至”这样的话术，大家可能觉得有一些夸张。但有时候可能是因为我们身处在这一过程中，所以并不能完全看清，“不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”。只有经历过，我们回头看才会发现，原来的确是这样。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4481137aa64542897feba50f30e759\" alt=\"\"/><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>史诗级牛市能让所有人赚到钱吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>美国股市从81年一直涨到现在，如果大家都能在股市中赚到钱，那美国的个人投资者应该很有钱。通过股票能够赚钱的人数是很少的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>如果想成为受益的少数群体，现在应该怎么做？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>市场一般经历四个阶段，坚决不信；怀疑相信、等待回调；市场大涨看不懂市场；然后完全相信真的接盘。往往大家亏钱的原因，是低点低仓位，高点高仓位，浮盈加仓一把亏光。想要在这个市场赚到钱，个人投资者要么早信，要么就干脆不信。还要敢于和大众媒体以及市场作对，跌得多的时候敢加仓，涨得多的时候忌贪婪，在顶部的时候全部减仓。怎么判断是否到顶，就要依靠个人认知了。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>有观点认为股市大涨能够提振消费，您怎么看？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>这是毋庸置疑的。股市一旦上涨，虚拟进账增加，会给人带来很强烈的财富幻觉。只要当天指数涨了3%，周围各个饭店肯定是爆满，大家晚上一定想要寻开心，花钱一定会大手大脚。但是这给未来留下不好的伏笔，只要自己炒股票，后续还会亏回去，大手大脚的习惯养成了，在亏回去的时候很难戒掉。股票市场不可能带着所有人发家致富，有足够高的认知和足够的人性把握，才能在这里赚到、留住。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>“中国股市不可能跌多狠”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>能否预测一下中国股市走势？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国资金呈现多方面的剩余，金融资本剩余、产业资本剩余、民间自由资本剩余。如此庞大的剩余资金没有出处，必然会找到一个大家熟知估值比较低的场所宣泄。目前来看，中国的股市是唯一比较符合要求的，它承载量足够大。如果这是必然，市场不可能跌多狠，也就不是下跌的时候无限悲观，上涨的时候无限乐观，注定是有底和顶。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>“牛短熊长”还会重演吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们觉得还会出现。之所以出现这种情况，是因为资金筹码之间产生的博弈，并不是来自基本面的股市上涨和下跌，而是非常强大的情绪冲击。所谓的大家说的“牛短熊长”，是每一个参与股市投资和基金投资的人造就的。大家的钱全涌过来，一定会把股市打成泡沫，然后再回归。存量资本的几次洗刷之后，我们才有可能迎来牛长熊短的过程。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减持态势。如何看待近期外资投资境内股票总体向好？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国是全世界生活最为安全、便利的国家，也是最大经济体之一，并且还有如此便宜的股市，一定会受到国际资本的追捧，只是时间节奏的问题。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>“巴菲特‘身体很诚实’，实际上就是看空美国”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：如何看待美国金融市场近期动态？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>拘泥于越小的事件，得出的结论越充满偶然性，因此应该从全局角度去观察。对目前的美国而言，降息不降息都是小问题，核心是美国每年12000亿的财政亏空。对任何一个国家而言，巨额财政赤字、高负债都是极其危险的信号。美国财政亏空，本可以通过像罗斯福新政一样对富人进行征税，但是现在却反其道而行之。美国必须要重新有一个像罗斯福一样有魄力、有能力、有担当的领导扭转大局，否则只能再去吞下QE（量化宽松）这颗剧毒药丸。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾经表示巴菲特并不是不看好黄金，而是之前黄金涨价下不去手。面对如今黄金的涨势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>如何操作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>巴菲特是全球资管圈的一个例外，全球只有一个巴菲特。巴菲特其实很“诚实”，</p><p>他实际上是在唱空美国。他目前在美国的持仓和各种情况，等同于在1968年关掉他自己的私募基金，并且买了大量的日本股市股票，那几个商社从盈利能力和地位看，相当于日本国企。日本大型国企盈利稳定、估值便宜，本身就是在对冲美元贬值的风险。由于他存在的地位和意义比较特殊，他不能说真实看空美国的想法，但是实质他做的行为就是如此。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>美股出现高位回落的可能性如何？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>很难判断什么时候到顶或什么时间回落，但我们认为这个位置绝对不能下注。2022年以后美国股市上涨过的所有东西都不值得下注。因为他们在用某一种叙事支撑这种高估值。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>“发明者吃螃蟹的叙事是错的，是美国用来解释<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：怎么理解您说的“叙事支撑美股高估值”？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>任何新事物的发明者，最后只能占据这个市场的5%，甚至不到5%的市场空间和利润。不是谁发明谁最后吃螃蟹，而是后续谁的效仿能力强。这种发明者胜出的叙事方式，是美国强加给我们的，是他们用来解释英伟达为什么这么强的一个叙事方式。但我可以明确说，在商业史上，在科技史上，这个叙事方式是错的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>英伟达成为全球首家市值突破4万亿美元的上市公司。你怎么看待英伟达？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>从这家公司市值36000亿的时候，我就一直在讲，英伟达很好很不错，但是它真的有那么好吗？它只是一家软件设计类的企业，商业模式上，消费和收入端存在一次性支出的嫌疑。如果我们理解为英伟达将保持永久性的领先，我想是错误的。当这个预期、这个叙事过程进行反杀的话，高估值泡沫会怎么样？2000年的互联网泡沫会出现什么？顶部时期去讲逻辑，是投资里面最可怕的事情，就会变成所谓真信的，真的要接盘。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>特朗普称美国是人工智能竞赛的发起国，并且抛出新的AI发展计划，企图维持美国在关键技术领域对中国的优势。如何看待他们的动作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>在AI还没有火起来的时候，几年以前李开复就已经对这个问题看的很清楚了。AI的核心是海量的数据，而不是仅仅依靠算力跟算法。哪里有海量的数据呢？在网络信息层面来说，中国才有这种海量的数据。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>之前您谈到下一轮技术革命时表示，目前看不出有新的技术能够带来生产效率的大幅提升，AI还不算。怎么理解您这个观点？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>能够掀起新一轮工业革命的东西，一定是能够提高生产效率，而且这种提高不是20%至30%，应该几何级数的提高，就像当年的蒸汽机推动棉纺织一样。所有的工业化生产物品，价格出现系统性的下移，新的工厂能够把价格砍掉40%至50%。那么目前我们去看 AI，还没有案例和数据能够证明AI大幅提升工业化部门生产效率。</p><p>我们只能说可以预期AI未来会实现在工业部门的应用，但目前还不能完全确定。以现在的Deepseek为例，我们承认它为搜索资料带来很多便利，但是它不是一个很好的下结论的工具，可以说现在还是“人云亦云”的阶段。多数人怎么说，它就怎么答复用户，还不能形成独立判断。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n史诗级牛市真要来了？专家称必然突破6124高点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1077578553\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b6fb647077f1ce46dc341fc35c26e817);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">凤凰网财经 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-04 21:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>“即将到来的A股史诗级牛市会掀翻6124高点，并且把这一历史峰值‘踩’在脚下。”信汇泉总经理孙加滢近日在与凤凰网财经对话时，如此预测。</strong></p><p>今年6月底以来，A股表现持续强势，站上3600点的高位。在这一时间点上，投资者对牛市的期待也越来越高。孙加滢表示，现在已经来到史诗级牛市的起点。某种程度上，史诗级牛市的出现是一种必然——根据他的研究，全球进入工业化序列的国家，在进入工业化成熟阶段后，普遍出现股市的连续上涨，并且上涨幅度将“相当大”。</p><p>牛市何时到来？如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？以下为对话实录，在不改变原意的基础上有删减。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a41270d6e3d3d868e03c846e1ff8905\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>“炒股挣的钱很难留住”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾表示现在是史诗级牛市的起点，牛市何时到来？能“牛”到什么程度？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>目前大概率进入整体向上的周期，时间节点很难具体预测，只能说是一步步看宏观情况。我们偏向于本轮牛市很难超过2007年的牛市，因为那波是从998的低点涨到了6124，相当于六倍上涨。如果（本轮）从2600开始算起，以涨幅六倍计算，指数将升至15000点，这是让人很难想象的。但是这轮牛市的上涨空间和幅度，我们还是偏向会将6124这个高点掀翻，并且把它“踩”在脚下。只有这样才能体现所谓“史诗级牛市”的气魄。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>为什么会出现史诗级牛市？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们在做各个国家股市研究时发现，进入工业化序列的国家，都经历过长期震荡，并且震荡后出现一路向上的走势。比如韩国股市和日本股市，德国、法国、美国这些进入工业化序列的国家也出现类似情况。</p><p>我结合罗斯托工业化进程和达里奥国家生命周期，对此进行解读，能够解释这个现象。基本上在工业化起飞前和起飞阶段，股市都会经历长周期震荡，但是进入工业化成熟阶段，普遍出现一波股市的连续上涨，并且这种上涨可以称之为史诗级，因为在历史上观测到呈现高点不断突破、低点不断抬高，并且抬高的幅度相当大的过程，而且是在短短几年内。</p><p>像韩国股市，就在短短八年内完成了四倍到五倍的上涨。美国在1932年完成工业化成熟，实际上我们看到它的股市上涨，是从1932年一直到现在，将近100年的牛市。当然了，中间的每一次震荡周期时间也比较长，但总体是连续向上的。这是我们当时做完研究后的结论。</p><p>虽然现在看，“史诗级牛市将至”这样的话术，大家可能觉得有一些夸张。但有时候可能是因为我们身处在这一过程中，所以并不能完全看清，“不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”。只有经历过，我们回头看才会发现，原来的确是这样。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c4481137aa64542897feba50f30e759\" alt=\"\"/><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>史诗级牛市能让所有人赚到钱吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>美国股市从81年一直涨到现在，如果大家都能在股市中赚到钱，那美国的个人投资者应该很有钱。通过股票能够赚钱的人数是很少的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>如果想成为受益的少数群体，现在应该怎么做？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>市场一般经历四个阶段，坚决不信；怀疑相信、等待回调；市场大涨看不懂市场；然后完全相信真的接盘。往往大家亏钱的原因，是低点低仓位，高点高仓位，浮盈加仓一把亏光。想要在这个市场赚到钱，个人投资者要么早信，要么就干脆不信。还要敢于和大众媒体以及市场作对，跌得多的时候敢加仓，涨得多的时候忌贪婪，在顶部的时候全部减仓。怎么判断是否到顶，就要依靠个人认知了。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>有观点认为股市大涨能够提振消费，您怎么看？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>这是毋庸置疑的。股市一旦上涨，虚拟进账增加，会给人带来很强烈的财富幻觉。只要当天指数涨了3%，周围各个饭店肯定是爆满，大家晚上一定想要寻开心，花钱一定会大手大脚。但是这给未来留下不好的伏笔，只要自己炒股票，后续还会亏回去，大手大脚的习惯养成了，在亏回去的时候很难戒掉。股票市场不可能带着所有人发家致富，有足够高的认知和足够的人性把握，才能在这里赚到、留住。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>“中国股市不可能跌多狠”</strong></p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>能否预测一下中国股市走势？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国资金呈现多方面的剩余，金融资本剩余、产业资本剩余、民间自由资本剩余。如此庞大的剩余资金没有出处，必然会找到一个大家熟知估值比较低的场所宣泄。目前来看，中国的股市是唯一比较符合要求的，它承载量足够大。如果这是必然，市场不可能跌多狠，也就不是下跌的时候无限悲观，上涨的时候无限乐观，注定是有底和顶。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>“牛短熊长”还会重演吗？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>我们觉得还会出现。之所以出现这种情况，是因为资金筹码之间产生的博弈，并不是来自基本面的股市上涨和下跌，而是非常强大的情绪冲击。所谓的大家说的“牛短熊长”，是每一个参与股市投资和基金投资的人造就的。大家的钱全涌过来，一定会把股市打成泡沫，然后再回归。存量资本的几次洗刷之后，我们才有可能迎来牛长熊短的过程。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减持态势。如何看待近期外资投资境内股票总体向好？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>中国是全世界生活最为安全、便利的国家，也是最大经济体之一，并且还有如此便宜的股市，一定会受到国际资本的追捧，只是时间节奏的问题。</p><p><strong>03</strong></p><p><strong>“巴菲特‘身体很诚实’，实际上就是看空美国”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：如何看待美国金融市场近期动态？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>拘泥于越小的事件，得出的结论越充满偶然性，因此应该从全局角度去观察。对目前的美国而言，降息不降息都是小问题，核心是美国每年12000亿的财政亏空。对任何一个国家而言，巨额财政赤字、高负债都是极其危险的信号。美国财政亏空，本可以通过像罗斯福新政一样对富人进行征税，但是现在却反其道而行之。美国必须要重新有一个像罗斯福一样有魄力、有能力、有担当的领导扭转大局，否则只能再去吞下QE（量化宽松）这颗剧毒药丸。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>您曾经表示巴菲特并不是不看好黄金，而是之前黄金涨价下不去手。面对如今黄金的涨势，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>如何操作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>巴菲特是全球资管圈的一个例外，全球只有一个巴菲特。巴菲特其实很“诚实”，</p><p>他实际上是在唱空美国。他目前在美国的持仓和各种情况，等同于在1968年关掉他自己的私募基金，并且买了大量的日本股市股票，那几个商社从盈利能力和地位看，相当于日本国企。日本大型国企盈利稳定、估值便宜，本身就是在对冲美元贬值的风险。由于他存在的地位和意义比较特殊，他不能说真实看空美国的想法，但是实质他做的行为就是如此。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>美股出现高位回落的可能性如何？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>很难判断什么时候到顶或什么时间回落，但我们认为这个位置绝对不能下注。2022年以后美国股市上涨过的所有东西都不值得下注。因为他们在用某一种叙事支撑这种高估值。</p><p><strong>04</strong></p><p><strong>“发明者吃螃蟹的叙事是错的，是美国用来解释<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>的”</strong></p><p>凤凰网财经：怎么理解您说的“叙事支撑美股高估值”？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>任何新事物的发明者，最后只能占据这个市场的5%，甚至不到5%的市场空间和利润。不是谁发明谁最后吃螃蟹，而是后续谁的效仿能力强。这种发明者胜出的叙事方式，是美国强加给我们的，是他们用来解释英伟达为什么这么强的一个叙事方式。但我可以明确说，在商业史上，在科技史上，这个叙事方式是错的。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>英伟达成为全球首家市值突破4万亿美元的上市公司。你怎么看待英伟达？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>从这家公司市值36000亿的时候，我就一直在讲，英伟达很好很不错，但是它真的有那么好吗？它只是一家软件设计类的企业，商业模式上，消费和收入端存在一次性支出的嫌疑。如果我们理解为英伟达将保持永久性的领先，我想是错误的。当这个预期、这个叙事过程进行反杀的话，高估值泡沫会怎么样？2000年的互联网泡沫会出现什么？顶部时期去讲逻辑，是投资里面最可怕的事情，就会变成所谓真信的，真的要接盘。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>特朗普称美国是人工智能竞赛的发起国，并且抛出新的AI发展计划，企图维持美国在关键技术领域对中国的优势。如何看待他们的动作？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>在AI还没有火起来的时候，几年以前李开复就已经对这个问题看的很清楚了。AI的核心是海量的数据，而不是仅仅依靠算力跟算法。哪里有海量的数据呢？在网络信息层面来说，中国才有这种海量的数据。</p><p><strong>凤凰网财经：</strong>之前您谈到下一轮技术革命时表示，目前看不出有新的技术能够带来生产效率的大幅提升，AI还不算。怎么理解您这个观点？</p><p><strong>孙加滢：</strong>能够掀起新一轮工业革命的东西，一定是能够提高生产效率，而且这种提高不是20%至30%，应该几何级数的提高，就像当年的蒸汽机推动棉纺织一样。所有的工业化生产物品，价格出现系统性的下移，新的工厂能够把价格砍掉40%至50%。那么目前我们去看 AI，还没有案例和数据能够证明AI大幅提升工业化部门生产效率。</p><p>我们只能说可以预期AI未来会实现在工业部门的应用，但目前还不能完全确定。以现在的Deepseek为例，我们承认它为搜索资料带来很多便利，但是它不是一个很好的下结论的工具，可以说现在还是“人云亦云”的阶段。多数人怎么说，它就怎么答复用户，还不能形成独立判断。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2ed00ac5de2097917e40947bc4a36a","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399300":"沪深300","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8lYItRIkIUe","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2556875443","content_text":"“即将到来的A股史诗级牛市会掀翻6124高点，并且把这一历史峰值‘踩’在脚下。”信汇泉总经理孙加滢近日在与凤凰网财经对话时，如此预测。今年6月底以来，A股表现持续强势，站上3600点的高位。在这一时间点上，投资者对牛市的期待也越来越高。孙加滢表示，现在已经来到史诗级牛市的起点。某种程度上，史诗级牛市的出现是一种必然——根据他的研究，全球进入工业化序列的国家，在进入工业化成熟阶段后，普遍出现股市的连续上涨，并且上涨幅度将“相当大”。牛市何时到来？如何把握机会成为少数受益群体？以下为对话实录，在不改变原意的基础上有删减。01“炒股挣的钱很难留住”凤凰网财经：您曾表示现在是史诗级牛市的起点，牛市何时到来？能“牛”到什么程度？孙加滢：目前大概率进入整体向上的周期，时间节点很难具体预测，只能说是一步步看宏观情况。我们偏向于本轮牛市很难超过2007年的牛市，因为那波是从998的低点涨到了6124，相当于六倍上涨。如果（本轮）从2600开始算起，以涨幅六倍计算，指数将升至15000点，这是让人很难想象的。但是这轮牛市的上涨空间和幅度，我们还是偏向会将6124这个高点掀翻，并且把它“踩”在脚下。只有这样才能体现所谓“史诗级牛市”的气魄。凤凰网财经：为什么会出现史诗级牛市？孙加滢：我们在做各个国家股市研究时发现，进入工业化序列的国家，都经历过长期震荡，并且震荡后出现一路向上的走势。比如韩国股市和日本股市，德国、法国、美国这些进入工业化序列的国家也出现类似情况。我结合罗斯托工业化进程和达里奥国家生命周期，对此进行解读，能够解释这个现象。基本上在工业化起飞前和起飞阶段，股市都会经历长周期震荡，但是进入工业化成熟阶段，普遍出现一波股市的连续上涨，并且这种上涨可以称之为史诗级，因为在历史上观测到呈现高点不断突破、低点不断抬高，并且抬高的幅度相当大的过程，而且是在短短几年内。像韩国股市，就在短短八年内完成了四倍到五倍的上涨。美国在1932年完成工业化成熟，实际上我们看到它的股市上涨，是从1932年一直到现在，将近100年的牛市。当然了，中间的每一次震荡周期时间也比较长，但总体是连续向上的。这是我们当时做完研究后的结论。虽然现在看，“史诗级牛市将至”这样的话术，大家可能觉得有一些夸张。但有时候可能是因为我们身处在这一过程中，所以并不能完全看清，“不识庐山真面目，只缘身在此山中”。只有经历过，我们回头看才会发现，原来的确是这样。凤凰网财经：史诗级牛市能让所有人赚到钱吗？孙加滢：美国股市从81年一直涨到现在，如果大家都能在股市中赚到钱，那美国的个人投资者应该很有钱。通过股票能够赚钱的人数是很少的。凤凰网财经：如果想成为受益的少数群体，现在应该怎么做？孙加滢：市场一般经历四个阶段，坚决不信；怀疑相信、等待回调；市场大涨看不懂市场；然后完全相信真的接盘。往往大家亏钱的原因，是低点低仓位，高点高仓位，浮盈加仓一把亏光。想要在这个市场赚到钱，个人投资者要么早信，要么就干脆不信。还要敢于和大众媒体以及市场作对，跌得多的时候敢加仓，涨得多的时候忌贪婪，在顶部的时候全部减仓。怎么判断是否到顶，就要依靠个人认知了。凤凰网财经：有观点认为股市大涨能够提振消费，您怎么看？孙加滢：这是毋庸置疑的。股市一旦上涨，虚拟进账增加，会给人带来很强烈的财富幻觉。只要当天指数涨了3%，周围各个饭店肯定是爆满，大家晚上一定想要寻开心，花钱一定会大手大脚。但是这给未来留下不好的伏笔，只要自己炒股票，后续还会亏回去，大手大脚的习惯养成了，在亏回去的时候很难戒掉。股票市场不可能带着所有人发家致富，有足够高的认知和足够的人性把握，才能在这里赚到、留住。02“中国股市不可能跌多狠”凤凰网财经：能否预测一下中国股市走势？孙加滢：中国资金呈现多方面的剩余，金融资本剩余、产业资本剩余、民间自由资本剩余。如此庞大的剩余资金没有出处，必然会找到一个大家熟知估值比较低的场所宣泄。目前来看，中国的股市是唯一比较符合要求的，它承载量足够大。如果这是必然，市场不可能跌多狠，也就不是下跌的时候无限悲观，上涨的时候无限乐观，注定是有底和顶。凤凰网财经：“牛短熊长”还会重演吗？孙加滢：我们觉得还会出现。之所以出现这种情况，是因为资金筹码之间产生的博弈，并不是来自基本面的股市上涨和下跌，而是非常强大的情绪冲击。所谓的大家说的“牛短熊长”，是每一个参与股市投资和基金投资的人造就的。大家的钱全涌过来，一定会把股市打成泡沫，然后再回归。存量资本的几次洗刷之后，我们才有可能迎来牛长熊短的过程。凤凰网财经：上半年外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，扭转了过去两年总体净减持态势。如何看待近期外资投资境内股票总体向好？孙加滢：中国是全世界生活最为安全、便利的国家，也是最大经济体之一，并且还有如此便宜的股市，一定会受到国际资本的追捧，只是时间节奏的问题。03“巴菲特‘身体很诚实’，实际上就是看空美国”凤凰网财经：如何看待美国金融市场近期动态？孙加滢：拘泥于越小的事件，得出的结论越充满偶然性，因此应该从全局角度去观察。对目前的美国而言，降息不降息都是小问题，核心是美国每年12000亿的财政亏空。对任何一个国家而言，巨额财政赤字、高负债都是极其危险的信号。美国财政亏空，本可以通过像罗斯福新政一样对富人进行征税，但是现在却反其道而行之。美国必须要重新有一个像罗斯福一样有魄力、有能力、有担当的领导扭转大局，否则只能再去吞下QE（量化宽松）这颗剧毒药丸。凤凰网财经：您曾经表示巴菲特并不是不看好黄金，而是之前黄金涨价下不去手。面对如今黄金的涨势，伯克希尔如何操作？孙加滢：巴菲特是全球资管圈的一个例外，全球只有一个巴菲特。巴菲特其实很“诚实”，他实际上是在唱空美国。他目前在美国的持仓和各种情况，等同于在1968年关掉他自己的私募基金，并且买了大量的日本股市股票，那几个商社从盈利能力和地位看，相当于日本国企。日本大型国企盈利稳定、估值便宜，本身就是在对冲美元贬值的风险。由于他存在的地位和意义比较特殊，他不能说真实看空美国的想法，但是实质他做的行为就是如此。凤凰网财经：美股出现高位回落的可能性如何？孙加滢：很难判断什么时候到顶或什么时间回落，但我们认为这个位置绝对不能下注。2022年以后美国股市上涨过的所有东西都不值得下注。因为他们在用某一种叙事支撑这种高估值。04“发明者吃螃蟹的叙事是错的，是美国用来解释英伟达的”凤凰网财经：怎么理解您说的“叙事支撑美股高估值”？孙加滢：任何新事物的发明者，最后只能占据这个市场的5%，甚至不到5%的市场空间和利润。不是谁发明谁最后吃螃蟹，而是后续谁的效仿能力强。这种发明者胜出的叙事方式，是美国强加给我们的，是他们用来解释英伟达为什么这么强的一个叙事方式。但我可以明确说，在商业史上，在科技史上，这个叙事方式是错的。凤凰网财经：英伟达成为全球首家市值突破4万亿美元的上市公司。你怎么看待英伟达？孙加滢：从这家公司市值36000亿的时候，我就一直在讲，英伟达很好很不错，但是它真的有那么好吗？它只是一家软件设计类的企业，商业模式上，消费和收入端存在一次性支出的嫌疑。如果我们理解为英伟达将保持永久性的领先，我想是错误的。当这个预期、这个叙事过程进行反杀的话，高估值泡沫会怎么样？2000年的互联网泡沫会出现什么？顶部时期去讲逻辑，是投资里面最可怕的事情，就会变成所谓真信的，真的要接盘。凤凰网财经：特朗普称美国是人工智能竞赛的发起国，并且抛出新的AI发展计划，企图维持美国在关键技术领域对中国的优势。如何看待他们的动作？孙加滢：在AI还没有火起来的时候，几年以前李开复就已经对这个问题看的很清楚了。AI的核心是海量的数据，而不是仅仅依靠算力跟算法。哪里有海量的数据呢？在网络信息层面来说，中国才有这种海量的数据。凤凰网财经：之前您谈到下一轮技术革命时表示，目前看不出有新的技术能够带来生产效率的大幅提升，AI还不算。怎么理解您这个观点？孙加滢：能够掀起新一轮工业革命的东西，一定是能够提高生产效率，而且这种提高不是20%至30%，应该几何级数的提高，就像当年的蒸汽机推动棉纺织一样。所有的工业化生产物品，价格出现系统性的下移，新的工厂能够把价格砍掉40%至50%。那么目前我们去看 AI，还没有案例和数据能够证明AI大幅提升工业化部门生产效率。我们只能说可以预期AI未来会实现在工业部门的应用，但目前还不能完全确定。以现在的Deepseek为例，我们承认它为搜索资料带来很多便利，但是它不是一个很好的下结论的工具，可以说现在还是“人云亦云”的阶段。多数人怎么说，它就怎么答复用户，还不能形成独立判断。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399300":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":238,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464031623004512,"gmtCreate":1754314404305,"gmtModify":1754314405518,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">$诺和诺德(NVO)$&nbsp;</a> 其实想入点，不过过2天又是财报了怕暴雷，算了不赌了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVO\">$诺和诺德(NVO)$&nbsp;</a> 其实想入点，不过过2天又是财报了怕暴雷，算了不赌了","text":"$诺和诺德(NVO)$ 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请问发生了啥事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460191044551496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":456750496964696,"gmtCreate":1752548640799,"gmtModify":1752548641833,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好好好，你说多少就是多少吧[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"好好好，你说多少就是多少吧[开心]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"好好好，你说多少就是多少吧[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/456750496964696","repostId":"1121791863","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1121791863","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1752544865,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121791863?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-15 10:01","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中国第二季度GDP同比增长5.2%，超市场预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121791863","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月15日，中国第二季度GDP同比5.2%，预期5.1%，前值5.4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。分产业看，第一产业增加值31172亿元，同比增长3.7%；第二产业增加值239050亿元，增长5.3%；第三产业增加值390314亿元，增长5.5%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，预期5.1%。从环比看，二季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/541c53a9a6c284c4b7e27724a8276f4d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2506095897\" style=\"text-align: start;\">中国6月社会消费品零售总额同比4.8%，前值6.4%</h2><p>7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，6月份，社会消费品零售总额42287亿元，同比增长4.8%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额37649亿元，增长4.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1—6月份，社会消费品零售总额245458亿元，同比增长5.0%，比一季度加快0.4个百分点。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额221990亿元，增长5.5%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2404893187\" style=\"text-align: start;\">中国6月规模以上工业增加值同比6.8%</h2><p>6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，6月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.50%。1—6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2507235349\" style=\"text-align: start;\">国家统计局：1-6月份，全国房地产开发投资46658亿元，同比下降11.2%</h2><p>国家统计局：1—6月份，新建商品房销售面积45851万平方米，同比下降3.5%；其中住宅销售面积下降3.7%。新建商品房销售额44241亿元，下降5.5%；其中住宅销售额下降5.2%。6月末，商品房待售面积76948万平方米，比5月末减少479万平方米。其中，住宅待售面积减少443万平方米。</p><h2 id=\"id_2610060622\" style=\"text-align: start;\">2025年上半年全国固定资产投资增长2.8%</h2><p>2025年上半年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）248654亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降0.6%。扣除价格因素影响，固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长5.3%。从环比看，6月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降0.12%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国第二季度GDP同比增长5.2%，超市场预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国第二季度GDP同比增长5.2%，超市场预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-15 10:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。分产业看，第一产业增加值31172亿元，同比增长3.7%；第二产业增加值239050亿元，增长5.3%；第三产业增加值390314亿元，增长5.5%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，预期5.1%。从环比看，二季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/541c53a9a6c284c4b7e27724a8276f4d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"461\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2506095897\" style=\"text-align: start;\">中国6月社会消费品零售总额同比4.8%，前值6.4%</h2><p>7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，6月份，社会消费品零售总额42287亿元，同比增长4.8%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额37649亿元，增长4.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1—6月份，社会消费品零售总额245458亿元，同比增长5.0%，比一季度加快0.4个百分点。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额221990亿元，增长5.5%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2404893187\" style=\"text-align: start;\">中国6月规模以上工业增加值同比6.8%</h2><p>6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，6月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.50%。1—6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2507235349\" style=\"text-align: start;\">国家统计局：1-6月份，全国房地产开发投资46658亿元，同比下降11.2%</h2><p>国家统计局：1—6月份，新建商品房销售面积45851万平方米，同比下降3.5%；其中住宅销售面积下降3.7%。新建商品房销售额44241亿元，下降5.5%；其中住宅销售额下降5.2%。6月末，商品房待售面积76948万平方米，比5月末减少479万平方米。其中，住宅待售面积减少443万平方米。</p><h2 id=\"id_2610060622\" style=\"text-align: start;\">2025年上半年全国固定资产投资增长2.8%</h2><p>2025年上半年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）248654亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降0.6%。扣除价格因素影响，固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长5.3%。从环比看，6月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降0.12%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae5869e8a953646a2b188cdec749d4b","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121791863","content_text":"7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，初步核算，上半年国内生产总值660536亿元，按不变价格计算，同比增长5.3%。分产业看，第一产业增加值31172亿元，同比增长3.7%；第二产业增加值239050亿元，增长5.3%；第三产业增加值390314亿元，增长5.5%。分季度看，一季度国内生产总值同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，预期5.1%。从环比看，二季度国内生产总值增长1.1%。中国6月社会消费品零售总额同比4.8%，前值6.4%7月15日，国家统计局公布数据显示，6月份，社会消费品零售总额42287亿元，同比增长4.8%。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额37649亿元，增长4.8%。1—6月份，社会消费品零售总额245458亿元，同比增长5.0%，比一季度加快0.4个百分点。其中，除汽车以外的消费品零售额221990亿元，增长5.5%。中国6月规模以上工业增加值同比6.8%6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长6.8%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，6月份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长0.50%。1—6月份，规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.4%。国家统计局：1-6月份，全国房地产开发投资46658亿元，同比下降11.2%国家统计局：1—6月份，新建商品房销售面积45851万平方米，同比下降3.5%；其中住宅销售面积下降3.7%。新建商品房销售额44241亿元，下降5.5%；其中住宅销售额下降5.2%。6月末，商品房待售面积76948万平方米，比5月末减少479万平方米。其中，住宅待售面积减少443万平方米。2025年上半年全国固定资产投资增长2.8%2025年上半年，全国固定资产投资（不含农户）248654亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，民间固定资产投资同比下降0.6%。扣除价格因素影响，固定资产投资（不含农户）同比增长5.3%。从环比看，6月份固定资产投资（不含农户）下降0.12%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":455110312157288,"gmtCreate":1752128721301,"gmtModify":1752128723048,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"把你们的蛋糕开放出些来就不会这么卷了","listText":"把你们的蛋糕开放出些来就不会这么卷了","text":"把你们的蛋糕开放出些来就不会这么卷了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/455110312157288","repostId":"1151794844","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151794844","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1752058068,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151794844?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-09 18:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"人民日报评论“外卖大战”！价格战没有赢家，创新才有未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151794844","media":"人民日报评论","summary":"但实质仍是变相价格战。但没有最低只有更低的价格战，终究不过是抢占市场的残酷游戏。前不久，中汽协发出倡议反对无序“价格战”，工业和信息化部亦表示加大力度整治汽车行业“内卷式”竞争。原因就在于这种“价格战”，会给汽车企业正常的生产经营带来较大冲击，不利于企业持续研发投入，最终损害消费者权益，导致产业发展缺乏内生动力。向下“卷”价格，没有赢家。向上“卷”创新，才有未来。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近，外卖市场掀起又一轮补贴大战，怎么看？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从表象上看，这是对即时零售市场、电商业务与流量入口的争夺，是平台之间供应链管理能力、技术与运营能力的较量。但实质仍是变相价格战。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">超低价或许一时让消费者得利、商家涨单、骑手增收。但必须正视，“爆单”效应造成的是非理性消费、客单利润摊薄，骑手疲于奔命、影响商品与配送服务质量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">固然市场需要鲇鱼，不在质量和服务上下功夫，最终会让位于竞争者。但没有最低只有更低的价格战，终究不过是抢占市场的残酷游戏。<strong>几乎每一轮烧钱大战结束，都会伴随着涨价，天下没有免费的午餐。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前不久，中汽协发出倡议反对无序“价格战”，工业和信息化部亦表示加大力度整治汽车行业“内卷式”竞争。<strong>原因就在于这种“价格战”，会给汽车企业正常的生产经营带来较大冲击，不利于企业持续研发投入，最终损害消费者权益，导致产业发展缺乏内生动力。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>向下“卷”价格，没有赢家。向上“卷”创新，才有未来。</strong>企业通过技术创新、管理创新等，可以降低生产成本，给消费者带来更优质、更具性价比的产品。<strong>互联网企业有创新基因，最应打开眼界，追求更高远目标。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>比如向着增量市场打开思路。</strong>即时配送领域蕴藏巨大需求和丰富机会，绝不止于外卖服务；快递员、外卖员发挥走街串巷优势，何尝不可以链接公共服务的市场；配送领域的技术创新，也能塑造更多市场优势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>比如向着价值创造提升格局。</strong>走出“价格战”的窠臼，将“用户想要什么”与“高效交付什么”无缝连接，为用户、员工、股东、社会创造更大价值的高地，才能打开企业发展的新空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">跳出一城一池、一时一地的拉锯争夺，在更广阔天地谋篇布局、创新创业，勇走别人未走之路，这才是有抱负的企业，也才是值得尊敬的企业家精神。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1607683579346","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>人民日报评论“外卖大战”！价格战没有赢家，创新才有未来</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n人民日报评论“外卖大战”！价格战没有赢家，创新才有未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-07-09 18:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4OTIyMjUyOQ==&mid=2654715087&idx=1&sn=b9d3c9c53ecf62e00418d37af3aab1fa&chksm=8aae4c9e7d41f0d90d5ce80fce64804887dfa48d8d721bc173f58adfa1b78a04017fbc3a050f&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0709nvfsZK1u9fBoih9Jbcqq&sharer_shareinfo=ca2cb68a0af578dcbc0e5a0f93471a7e&sharer_shareinfo_first=ca2cb68a0af578dcbc0e5a0f93471a7e#rd><strong>人民日报评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>最近，外卖市场掀起又一轮补贴大战，怎么看？从表象上看，这是对即时零售市场、电商业务与流量入口的争夺，是平台之间供应链管理能力、技术与运营能力的较量。但实质仍是变相价格战。超低价或许一时让消费者得利、商家涨单、骑手增收。但必须正视，“爆单”效应造成的是非理性消费、客单利润摊薄，骑手疲于奔命、影响商品与配送服务质量。固然市场需要鲇鱼，不在质量和服务上下功夫，最终会让位于竞争者。但没有最低只有更低的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4OTIyMjUyOQ==&mid=2654715087&idx=1&sn=b9d3c9c53ecf62e00418d37af3aab1fa&chksm=8aae4c9e7d41f0d90d5ce80fce64804887dfa48d8d721bc173f58adfa1b78a04017fbc3a050f&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0709nvfsZK1u9fBoih9Jbcqq&sharer_shareinfo=ca2cb68a0af578dcbc0e5a0f93471a7e&sharer_shareinfo_first=ca2cb68a0af578dcbc0e5a0f93471a7e#rd\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9149ee38be553ca11bd01b0a72f4964e","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","MPNGY":"美团ADR","03690":"美团-W","JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4OTIyMjUyOQ==&mid=2654715087&idx=1&sn=b9d3c9c53ecf62e00418d37af3aab1fa&chksm=8aae4c9e7d41f0d90d5ce80fce64804887dfa48d8d721bc173f58adfa1b78a04017fbc3a050f&mpshare=1&scene=23&srcid=0709nvfsZK1u9fBoih9Jbcqq&sharer_shareinfo=ca2cb68a0af578dcbc0e5a0f93471a7e&sharer_shareinfo_first=ca2cb68a0af578dcbc0e5a0f93471a7e#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151794844","content_text":"最近，外卖市场掀起又一轮补贴大战，怎么看？从表象上看，这是对即时零售市场、电商业务与流量入口的争夺，是平台之间供应链管理能力、技术与运营能力的较量。但实质仍是变相价格战。超低价或许一时让消费者得利、商家涨单、骑手增收。但必须正视，“爆单”效应造成的是非理性消费、客单利润摊薄，骑手疲于奔命、影响商品与配送服务质量。固然市场需要鲇鱼，不在质量和服务上下功夫，最终会让位于竞争者。但没有最低只有更低的价格战，终究不过是抢占市场的残酷游戏。几乎每一轮烧钱大战结束，都会伴随着涨价，天下没有免费的午餐。前不久，中汽协发出倡议反对无序“价格战”，工业和信息化部亦表示加大力度整治汽车行业“内卷式”竞争。原因就在于这种“价格战”，会给汽车企业正常的生产经营带来较大冲击，不利于企业持续研发投入，最终损害消费者权益，导致产业发展缺乏内生动力。向下“卷”价格，没有赢家。向上“卷”创新，才有未来。企业通过技术创新、管理创新等，可以降低生产成本，给消费者带来更优质、更具性价比的产品。互联网企业有创新基因，最应打开眼界，追求更高远目标。比如向着增量市场打开思路。即时配送领域蕴藏巨大需求和丰富机会，绝不止于外卖服务；快递员、外卖员发挥走街串巷优势，何尝不可以链接公共服务的市场；配送领域的技术创新，也能塑造更多市场优势。比如向着价值创造提升格局。走出“价格战”的窠臼，将“用户想要什么”与“高效交付什么”无缝连接，为用户、员工、股东、社会创造更大价值的高地，才能打开企业发展的新空间。跳出一城一池、一时一地的拉锯争夺，在更广阔天地谋篇布局、创新创业，勇走别人未走之路，这才是有抱负的企业，也才是值得尊敬的企业家精神。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":1.1,"09618":1.1,"09988":1.1,"BABA":1.1,"JD":1.1,"MPNGY":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":452707836227728,"gmtCreate":1751549706997,"gmtModify":1751549709017,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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空你几哇","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60646449bee3dc5bb389d7172b9d4e03","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/417608175612560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"275819275022896","authorId":"275819275022896","name":"约翰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad1bbc78ee49142cbe14dec72f0436a6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"275819275022896","authorIdStr":"275819275022896"},"content":"你现在做空？我预感大事来袭，到时候飞过350是很快的事情。","text":"你现在做空？我预感大事来袭，到时候飞过350是很快的事情。","html":"你现在做空？我预感大事来袭，到时候飞过350是很快的事情。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409976826536520,"gmtCreate":1741101799647,"gmtModify":1741101849013,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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中美基本等同于脱钩，短期内只能看空了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f3154bfc7ab3e3ebc95f95c7d4a37d0","width":"898","height":"1530"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/422914377445936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3558216639482033","authorId":"3558216639482033","name":"FocusMK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/402db424f2645807d6279fe3b1b92fc2","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3558216639482033","authorIdStr":"3558216639482033"},"content":"不过贸易暂时还禁不住，中国还可以转口其他国家，不过根据川普的行事风格，下一个解决的就是转口贸易问题，早晚得把中国的顺差解决掉，然后俄乌战争自然也会结束","text":"不过贸易暂时还禁不住，中国还可以转口其他国家，不过根据川普的行事风格，下一个解决的就是转口贸易问题，早晚得把中国的顺差解决掉，然后俄乌战争自然也会结束","html":"不过贸易暂时还禁不住，中国还可以转口其他国家，不过根据川普的行事风格，下一个解决的就是转口贸易问题，早晚得把中国的顺差解决掉，然后俄乌战争自然也会结束"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":420792002265216,"gmtCreate":1743763294810,"gmtModify":1743763299313,"author":{"id":"3559952201911889","authorId":"3559952201911889","name":"人人有功练","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e9d535ce8e9a4c683917bac23452d0a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559952201911889","authorIdStr":"3559952201911889"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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