许凤彬的个人主页 - 老虎社区

许凤彬

许凤彬

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0勋章

2024-03-27

$聚好商城(JWEL)$ 你又是第一，牛逼

2024-03-25

$聚好商城(JWEL)$ 倒数第一

2023-11-17

有所回升，期待好的喜讯

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-05-27

$聚好商城(JWEL)$ 跌死算了

2023-04-27

$聚好商城(JWEL)$ 快死到底了

2023-03-24

$聚好商城(JWEL)$ 你是彻底废了

2023-03-21

$聚好商城(JWEL)$ 你是彻底完蛋了吧

2023-03-15

$聚好商城(JWEL)$ 这是怎么了，天天跌

2022-08-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@Buy_Sell:🚀【7月26日】隔夜美股猴痘概念大涨！今天什么值得买

2022-08-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@期权小班长:何时回调到位，一个最简单的指标

2022-08-04

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@Buy_Sell:🚀【7月29日】太刺激！美股上演深V，激进加息预期退烧，今天买点啥

2022-08-04

$聚好商城(JWEL)$加油

2022-08-04

$汽车之家(ATHM)$阅读

2022-08-04

$拼多多(PDD)$阅读

2022-08-04

$汽车之家(ATHM)$阅读

2022-08-03

$聚好商城(JWEL)$计划一直走下坡么？

2022-04-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@Buy_Sell:🔥【4月6日】美国股债双杀，科技股领跌，今天有什么交易计划

2022-04-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@期权小班长:谈谈美联储为何对自家股市下狠手，以及一个机会

2022-04-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@Ivan_甘灿荣:商品区间顶来袭，还有上涨空间？

2022-04-10

$聚好商城(JWEL)$看好你，别让我失望哦

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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这是怎么了，天天跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650384265","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685637548,"gmtCreate":1659601695989,"gmtModify":1659601695989,"author":{"id":"3558750553178878","authorId":"3558750553178878","name":"许凤彬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2595a949cf6188b0d57350b75ac6ea2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558750553178878","authorIdStr":"3558750553178878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685637548","repostId":"682320568","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":682320568,"gmtCreate":1658803728590,"gmtModify":1744960834416,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【7月26日】隔夜美股猴痘概念大涨！今天什么值得买","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。港股市场7月26日讯，隔夜美股涨跌不一，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.55%，国指涨0.46%，恒生科技指数涨0.54%。盘面上，大型科技股多数上涨，双重主要上市，有望纳入港股通，<a 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跌0.59%，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d7da388220bfad782f62f7c19103ddd","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682320568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685637678,"gmtCreate":1659601684598,"gmtModify":1659601684598,"author":{"id":"3558750553178878","authorId":"3558750553178878","name":"许凤彬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2595a949cf6188b0d57350b75ac6ea2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558750553178878","authorIdStr":"3558750553178878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685637678","repostId":"682308368","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":682308368,"gmtCreate":1658758866972,"gmtModify":1658792072905,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"何时回调到位，一个最简单的指标","htmlText":"本周重磅事件： 周三：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> 发布财报 周三晚间：FOMC会议 周四：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$</a> 发布财报 周四晚间：美国公布Q2&nbsp;GDP数据 周五：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 财报 本周有大财报，有FOMC，又有GDP公布，上一次经历这么大阵仗是在4月底，印象很深刻当时是五一放假前，因为当周收盘为涨，所以大意了，等放假回来一看账户眼前一黑： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/618447313\" target=\"_blank\">GDP这么差，市场什么时候才能好转？</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/616542181\" target=\"_blank\">当大象停止跳舞，小心！</a> 本周和4月底有很多类似的地方，比如广告类公司财报预期不佳，GDP数据预期差，FOMC会议加息力度大。不能说是一模一样，只能说是完全相同了。不过从通胀预期来看，因为油价下跌供应链通畅所以市场认为剧烈加息仅限这一次，理论上不管本周有什么样的大风大浪，数据落地后市场应该继续走反弹趋势。但达到下周的美好愿景前，先要翻过本周沉重的情绪大山：上周snap财报大跌39%，有很强的警示作用。本次财报季分析师给出的预期很宽松，如此宽松的前提下都不能达成预期，且无法给出明确的下","listText":"本周重磅事件： 周三：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> 发布财报 周三晚间：FOMC会议 周四：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$</a> 发布财报 周四晚间：美国公布Q2&nbsp;GDP数据 周五：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 财报 本周有大财报，有FOMC，又有GDP公布，上一次经历这么大阵仗是在4月底，印象很深刻当时是五一放假前，因为当周收盘为涨，所以大意了，等放假回来一看账户眼前一黑： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/618447313\" target=\"_blank\">GDP这么差，市场什么时候才能好转？</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/616542181\" target=\"_blank\">当大象停止跳舞，小心！</a> 本周和4月底有很多类似的地方，比如广告类公司财报预期不佳，GDP数据预期差，FOMC会议加息力度大。不能说是一模一样，只能说是完全相同了。不过从通胀预期来看，因为油价下跌供应链通畅所以市场认为剧烈加息仅限这一次，理论上不管本周有什么样的大风大浪，数据落地后市场应该继续走反弹趋势。但达到下周的美好愿景前，先要翻过本周沉重的情绪大山：上周snap财报大跌39%，有很强的警示作用。本次财报季分析师给出的预期很宽松，如此宽松的前提下都不能达成预期，且无法给出明确的下","text":"本周重磅事件： 周三：$微软(MSFT)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ 发布财报 周三晚间：FOMC会议 周四：$Meta Platforms(META)$ 发布财报 周四晚间：美国公布Q2 GDP数据 周五：$苹果(AAPL)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ 财报 本周有大财报，有FOMC，又有GDP公布，上一次经历这么大阵仗是在4月底，印象很深刻当时是五一放假前，因为当周收盘为涨，所以大意了，等放假回来一看账户眼前一黑： GDP这么差，市场什么时候才能好转？ 当大象停止跳舞，小心！ 本周和4月底有很多类似的地方，比如广告类公司财报预期不佳，GDP数据预期差，FOMC会议加息力度大。不能说是一模一样，只能说是完全相同了。不过从通胀预期来看，因为油价下跌供应链通畅所以市场认为剧烈加息仅限这一次，理论上不管本周有什么样的大风大浪，数据落地后市场应该继续走反弹趋势。但达到下周的美好愿景前，先要翻过本周沉重的情绪大山：上周snap财报大跌39%，有很强的警示作用。本次财报季分析师给出的预期很宽松，如此宽松的前提下都不能达成预期，且无法给出明确的下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1005e81448b2ec84a92bfcdbee6d7340","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/682308368","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":685637834,"gmtCreate":1659601671932,"gmtModify":1659601671932,"author":{"id":"3558750553178878","authorId":"3558750553178878","name":"许凤彬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2595a949cf6188b0d57350b75ac6ea2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558750553178878","authorIdStr":"3558750553178878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/685637834","repostId":"682532042","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":682532042,"gmtCreate":1659062930736,"gmtModify":1744960835487,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【7月29日】太刺激！美股上演深V，激进加息预期退烧，今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等港股市场7月29日讯，投资者押注美联储将放缓加息步伐，隔夜美股收涨。港股高开，恒指涨0.12%，恒指涨0.19%，恒生科技指数涨0.2%。盘面上，大型科技股多数上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 涨超1%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 小幅上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 走低；昨日领涨的教育股再度上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09901\">$新东方-S(09901)$</a> 大涨超11%，燃气股走高，生物科技股、保险股、体育用品股、锂电池股部分上涨。另一方面，啤酒股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01876\">$百威亚太(01876)$</a> 绩后低开3.59%，电力股、海运股、电子烟概念股普跌。美股市场尽管经济数据表现不佳，但多位美国官员出面安抚市场，且投资者押注经济放缓将迫使美联储提早结束加息行动，美股三大股指周四集体收涨。截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨1.02%，纳斯达克综合指数涨1.08%，标普500指数涨1.21%。大型科技股多数收涨，","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等港股市场7月29日讯，投资者押注美联储将放缓加息步伐，隔夜美股收涨。港股高开，恒指涨0.12%，恒指涨0.19%，恒生科技指数涨0.2%。盘面上，大型科技股多数上涨，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 涨超1%，<a 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缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模，和加息一样，是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上，只不过不知道具体执行方法，今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节，也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪，很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解，因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心：https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人，相反富人持有资产，是通胀的受益者，所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌，股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费，穷人占比是富人的两倍，通胀越严重，穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀，这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解，不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业，均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激，通胀自然而然会下降，只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢？ 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑，资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的，最好趁高位抛售，如果是价值股，那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多，如果你有近期sell&nbsp;p","text":"假期发生了三件事：美货币政策进一步收紧，马斯克入股推特，中概股境外上市规定出台。按影响排序我们挨个谈谈看法。 1、美货币政策进一步收紧： 美联储理事鸽派代表布雷纳德周二表示，美联储最早可能5月开始缩表，并将以更为迅速地步伐缩减资产负债表。她还表示，加息的步伐可能会比25个基点的增幅更大。 此言论一出，美联储全面转鹰，国债利率倒挂，股票市场立刻由涨转跌，其中科技股领跌，英伟达大跌5%。 缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模，和加息一样，是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上，只不过不知道具体执行方法，今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节，也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪，很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解，因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心：https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人，相反富人持有资产，是通胀的受益者，所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌，股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费，穷人占比是富人的两倍，通胀越严重，穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀，这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解，不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业，均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激，通胀自然而然会下降，只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢？ 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑，资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的，最好趁高位抛售，如果是价值股，那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多，如果你有近期sell p","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d974dabc7de34b01698f46f98f376cbc","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619671022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613067323,"gmtCreate":1649606299690,"gmtModify":1649606299690,"author":{"id":"3558750553178878","authorId":"3558750553178878","name":"许凤彬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2595a949cf6188b0d57350b75ac6ea2a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3558750553178878","authorIdStr":"3558750553178878"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613067323","repostId":"619127763","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":619127763,"gmtCreate":1649126347281,"gmtModify":1649127814477,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312224764596","authorIdStr":"3534312224764596"},"themes":[],"title":"商品区间顶来袭，还有上涨空间？","htmlText":"最近对于做多通胀（商品）的投资者来说，不是个好时间，几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整，具体后市如何，我将会在帖子里和大家分享，具体的交易机会也会在本周四（7号）晚的直播里和大家详细解说，大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看，加息预期已经无法击溃美股，因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响，从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上，靠政策打压通胀，通常都不会是一蹴而就，而是有个积累的过程（要打压市场对通胀的预期，和逐步提高囤积商品的成本），因此这个过程中，商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会，大家把握好，收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告，决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话，那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高，供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升，会带来种植成本的进一步上涨，而目前农产品调整，其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程，所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份，种植面积确定后，这部分成本将初步敲定，农产品的整体价格就有了底线，后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌，并不一定是历史大顶的形成，很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会，所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下，油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的，尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备，如果联合其它盟国的释放，对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度，预期将在75美元附近，毕竟战略石油储备抛出后，未来是要回补的，抛得越多，对未来油价的支撑力度越强，所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加，那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上，油价有效跌穿（以收盘价","listText":"最近对于做多通胀（商品）的投资者来说，不是个好时间，几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整，具体后市如何，我将会在帖子里和大家分享，具体的交易机会也会在本周四（7号）晚的直播里和大家详细解说，大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看，加息预期已经无法击溃美股，因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响，从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上，靠政策打压通胀，通常都不会是一蹴而就，而是有个积累的过程（要打压市场对通胀的预期，和逐步提高囤积商品的成本），因此这个过程中，商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会，大家把握好，收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告，决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话，那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高，供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升，会带来种植成本的进一步上涨，而目前农产品调整，其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程，所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份，种植面积确定后，这部分成本将初步敲定，农产品的整体价格就有了底线，后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌，并不一定是历史大顶的形成，很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会，所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下，油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的，尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备，如果联合其它盟国的释放，对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度，预期将在75美元附近，毕竟战略石油储备抛出后，未来是要回补的，抛得越多，对未来油价的支撑力度越强，所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加，那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上，油价有效跌穿（以收盘价","text":"最近对于做多通胀（商品）的投资者来说，不是个好时间，几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整，具体后市如何，我将会在帖子里和大家分享，具体的交易机会也会在本周四（7号）晚的直播里和大家详细解说，大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看，加息预期已经无法击溃美股，因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响，从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上，靠政策打压通胀，通常都不会是一蹴而就，而是有个积累的过程（要打压市场对通胀的预期，和逐步提高囤积商品的成本），因此这个过程中，商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会，大家把握好，收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告，决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话，那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 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