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Mickeyperk
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IP属地:山东
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Mickeyperk
10-23
至少能涨到65刀, 原因是一旦川普当上总统,媒体和信息会导致这个公司的业务和完全不一样了。估值不可限量啊
Mickeyperk
10-23
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
川大必胜
Mickeyperk
10-22
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
坚决长期持有 一旦特朗普当选总统,那这个媒体集团就有了前所未有的资源,业务还会是现在这个样子嘛?
Mickeyperk
10-16
特朗普科技集团
$特朗普媒体科技集团(DJT)$
Mickeyperk
03-20
腾讯肯定是先涨后跌。高开低走
Mickeyperk
02-22
英伟达将高开低走,于710元左右收盘。
Mickeyperk
02-21
英伟达毕竟是制造业公司,无法永远保持市场占有率和暴利,财报后应跌5%-10%
Mickeyperk
2023-05-31
$恒生指数(HSI)$
大家都看空,所以我看涨!
Mickeyperk
2022-09-21
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
个人认为,会大涨。因为加息75个基点已经被提前消化了。这时候就是利空出尽。
Mickeyperk
2022-09-15
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
继续做空
Mickeyperk
2022-09-07
$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$
中概是否跌的太厉害了?这正是捡筹码的机会呀!
Mickeyperk
2022-09-07
$RLX科技(RLX)$
未来的隐患是啥?
Mickeyperk
2022-09-06
你给巴菲特不在一个轨道上。巴菲特是研究未来资金回报率,他认为比亚迪的资金回报率太低了。而你研究的是世界大格局,如何下一盘棋。哪一个更实际一些?
巴菲特减持比亚迪,无关大局
Mickeyperk
2022-08-15
$理想汽车(LI)$
不知道财报会议进行的怎么样?英语不太好。
Mickeyperk
2022-04-12
$RLX科技(RLX)$
市场监管总局发的这个标准。大家觉得是利好吧吗?我看了一下没有任何利好。其中有一条是以前没看到的。说里面的烟点必须使用烟草中提纯的尼古丁。这应该是巨大利空啊。
Mickeyperk
2022-03-15
$理想汽车(LI)$
如果公司在美股被动退市,我们手里的股票怎么办?
Mickeyperk
2022-03-11
$RLX科技(RLX)$
在哪里听财报啊?怎么没有链接呢?
Mickeyperk
2022-03-03
$RLX科技(RLX)$
为什么突然大跌?什么情况?请高手指点一下。
Mickeyperk
2022-02-24
$Faraday Future(FFIE)$
感觉这款车还是很漂亮的。但是不知为啥他开出来的时候速度开得很慢。而且小心翼翼的。似乎有些地方不太成熟。但这个判断也可能是个人的,没有根据。
Mickeyperk
2022-01-18
$理想汽车(LI)$
理想汽车最近要涨。有逆势上涨的感觉。我预感有机构正在进入。统一的点赞。
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11:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特减持比亚迪,无关大局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113448163","media":"虎嗅","summary":"一两个巴菲特增持石油公司、减持新能源龙头公司无法改变全球碳中和大局。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>浪费时间猜测巴菲特减持动机,不如从第一性原理出发,思考全球碳中和大计、中国推广新能源车决心和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>行业地位是否会因某位投资家的操作而发生改变。</p><p>结论很清楚——巴菲特减持无关大局。</p><p><b>无关全球碳中和大计</b></p><p>气候变化是人类面临的重大而紧迫的挑战。远的不说,今夏高温干旱席卷全球:中国大部分地区存在中度至重度干旱、多地发布红色高温预警;欧洲多国气温突破历史极值,河湖水位下降,多国农作物估计减产;美国西部70%地区处于“干旱”至“极度干旱”状态……</p><p>节能减排、以低碳方式发展经济越来越成为共识,全球已有100多个国家提出碳中和计划。</p><p>巴菲特是有战略眼光的优秀投资者,但认为其一举一动都昭示人类命运就大错特错了。他也担待不起。</p><p>进入2022年,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦多次购入“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>公司”普通股、优先股、认购权证、期权,合计持股比例约为28%。</p><p>前不久,伯克希尔哈撒韦获得<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>监管机构批准,可以购买西方石油公司多达50%股份,为进一步增持大开方便之门。</p><p>巴菲特疯狂加仓石油股的背景有二:一是美国通过“页岩油革命”跃升为世界最大产油国(2021年美国、俄罗斯、沙特石油产量分别为7.1亿吨、5.4亿吨、5.2亿吨);二是俄乌冲突引起国际油价飙升。</p><p>不同公司页岩油成本差异巨大,每桶当量成本从20美元、30美元到50美元、60美元皆有,中枢在40美元左右。沙特、俄罗斯石油开采成本中枢分别为10美元、20美元。成本劣势是美国石油资本最大的“敌人”。</p><p>挑动俄乌冲突进而通过制裁将俄罗斯踢出国际石油市场(制造短缺,同时阻止俄从油价上涨受益),美国石油资本正在收割全世界(包括美国选民)。巴菲特号称“西方石油公司股票能买多少就买多少”,就是来参加资本盛宴的。</p><p>有意思的是,制裁下的俄罗斯石油产销量仅略微下降,2022年能源出口收入超过2021年已成定局。甚至有预测认为,俄罗斯2022年能源出口额将同比增长近40%!</p><p>跨国石油公司没亏、俄罗斯没亏,印度、中国不同程度受益,倒霉的只有欧美选民。</p><p>能源价格维持高位,将有力地推动新能源推广,客观上推动碳中和。公私兼顾是巴菲特最为令人钦佩之处。</p><p>新能源车替代燃油车是全球碳中和大计的重要组成部分。2021年,全球新能源车渗透率达8.5%。其中挪威(70%)、德国(23%)、英国、法国、中国(13%)居前五。</p><p>美国仅为4%。8月12日以微弱优势在众议院通过的《通胀消减法案》规定,电动车购买者最高可获7500美元补贴。</p><p>一两个巴菲特增持石油公司、减持新能源龙头公司无法改变全球碳中和大局。</p><p><b>无关中国推广新能源车决心</b></p><p>据统计,我国一次能源消费总量折算为标准煤约为50亿吨/年。其中,排放因子最高的煤炭占比达70%,其它化石能源(石油、天然气)约占15%。</p><p>中国二氧化碳年排放量约100亿吨(占全球总排放量的四分之一)。其中,七成碳排放来自工业,二成来自“公民建”,一成来自交通。</p><p>由于中国是世界工厂,2021年出口总额3.36万亿美元,70亿吨工业碳排放中有多少是“代人受过”说不清。</p><p>“代人受过”也是过。发达国家一方面大量使用价廉物美的中国工业品,另一方面动辄拿中国碳排放说事。做为负责任的大国,中国提出2030年碳达峰、2060年碳中和,这个承诺一定要实现。</p><p>还有一个问题就是中国对进口石油的依赖。2021年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">中国石油</a>产量为2亿吨,进口量为5.13亿吨,对外依存度达72%。中国石油消费量占世界的16.4%、进口量占世界石油贸易量的26.4%。</p><p>2021年,我国汽车消耗汽油约1.19亿吨。按1吨原油提炼0.256吨汽油计算,满足汽车消耗需要4.65亿吨原油。占石油进口量的90.7%!</p><p>综上所述,中国石油对外依存度超过70%,进口石油的90%被汽车烧掉。截至2022年5月底,全国汽车保有量3.07亿辆,新能源汽车保有量约1000万辆,仅占汽车总量的3.25%。不论从碳中和还是从能源安全角度,中国都要大力推广新能源车,而且越快越好。</p><p>2021年,中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车产量为327.8万辆,销量352.1万辆,渗透率13.4%。这一年,中国石油进口量首次出现下降,幅度为5.4%。影响因素很多,新能源车保有量增长必在其中。</p><p>有人认为“新能源车渗透率超过30%,增速会放缓”。其实,只有当新能源车渗透率超过50%,对燃油车的替代进程才会开始。</p><p>一两个巴菲特丝毫不会动摇我们的决心。</p><p>有人将巴菲特此次减持与当年清仓<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTR\">中石油</a>相提并论。中石油受国际油价影响,业绩波动幅度很大。清仓那年(2007年),中石油归母净利润1468亿,2016年仅为78.6亿,2017年回升到228亿,2021年922亿,2022年H1高达824亿。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/942c204b23463a3eb171e921547036c0\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>中石油与比亚迪没有可比性,何况一个处于将要被替代的传统能源领域,另一个是将要替代传统能源的新能源领域。</p><p>无关比亚迪行业地位</p><p>比亚迪有两张“王牌”:纯电/插混“两条腿”和深度整合产业链。全球新能源车玩家,不论<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>还是“油改电”的传统汽车厂商,更不要提“新势力”(包括华为),没有谁兼具这两张牌,难以阻挡比亚迪称雄。</p><p>1)纯电、混动两条腿走路</p><p>2020年,比亚迪新能源车累计销售19万台;Q4纯电、插混销量分别为5.3万台、2.3万台;</p><p>2021年,比亚迪新能源车累计销量60.4万台,同比增长218%;Q4纯电、插混销量分别为12.7万台、13.6万台,同比增速分别为158%、464%;</p><p>2022年H1,比亚迪新能源车销量63.8万台,超过2021全年;其中纯电、混动销量分别为32.4万台、31.5万台,已经平分秋色;</p><p>2022年7月、8月两月,混动销量达17.3万台,反超纯电动车。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec5c15480a2bbbf5822b0de74507802d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>越来越多的人认识到纯电动车不是最终解决方案(有可能是氢能源),因为化学电池能量密度再怎样提高也只有汽油、液氢的零头。</p><p>特斯拉21700电芯能量密度为247Wh/Kg,高调推出的4680电芯体积是21700的5.48倍、能量提升5倍,能量密度几乎没有变化。在电池结构上大作文章,说明提高能量密度的空间已基本不存在。</p><p>纯电动与插电混动都是过渡方案,后者有三大优势:</p><p>一是不受充电桩推广进度制约。</p><p>截至2022年7月,纯电动车保有量、充电桩总数分别为844万台、398万台(其中公共充电桩158万台,私人充电桩240万台),车桩比为2.1(844/398)。</p><p>如此笼统计算难以反映车主真实境遇:</p><p>604万台没有“私桩”的车主,只有158万台公共充电桩可用,车桩比为3.8;</p><p>240万“桩主”,不会让他人使用私桩,还时不时要使用公桩(开车出门不能带着私桩)。假设240万台车使用公共充电桩的概率为10%,相当于24万台无私桩车,这样算出的车桩比接近4.0。</p><p>2022年前7个月,纯电动车销量196万台,新增充电桩136万台,两者相差60万台。已经制约纯电动车推广的“充电难”,将会越来越难。</p><p>二是大幅降低对锂、镍、钴等金属的依赖</p><p>纯电动车续航里程约为插电混动车的4~5倍,电池容量、消耗的资源也是后者的4~5倍。</p><p>例如,比亚迪宋PLUS(插电混动版)纯电续航110公里、电池容量18.3kWh;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>ES6续航610公里、电池容量100kWh;特斯拉Model X续航605公里、电池容量也是100kWh。</p><p>2021年中国纯电、插电混动车销量之比约 5:1。制造动力电池消耗的资源,95%用于纯电动车。</p><p>假如纯电、插电混动车销量的比例调整为1:5,可以节约60%的资源,特别是中国无法自给自足的锂、钴、镍(中国缺锂、少镍、没钴)。</p><p>王传福曾说“中国不能从石油被卡脖子变成电池被卡脖子”。推广插电混动是重要的解决之道。</p><p>三是消除里程焦虑,促进更多民众购买、使用新能源车,节能减排效果更好。</p><p>只有一个“购车指标”或只打算购买一辆机动车的消费者,考虑到远行的不时之需,对购买纯电动车难免有顾虑。</p><p>同时拥有燃油车和纯电动车的消费者,如果用车半径超过50公里,除非纯电动车满电,肯定倾向于开燃油车出行。里程焦虑+充电难影响购买和使用,不利于新能源车推广。</p><p>插电混动车可油可电,完全不存在里程焦虑。比亚迪插电混动车型最高纯电续航超过200公里,足以满足日常用车需求。</p><p>由于用电成本远远低于烧油。不需宣传、不必监督,车主会尽最大可能用电不烧油。</p><p>无需专家、学者鼓与呼,升斗小民天然懂得趋利避害,插电混动车在新能源车销量中的比重稳步上升。2022年7月,纯电、插电混动车销量分别为33.6万台、10.1万台,插电混动车占比提高到23%。</p><p>2023年新能源车销量要突破1000万台,假如纯电动车占比仍为80%,意味着新增800万台纯电动车。</p><p>预计2022年底,充电桩数量有望突破500万台,2023年再增300万台,年未达到800万台(远超发改委2025年654万台规划)。</p><p>但新增充电桩仍比纯电动车销售少500万台(800万减300万),充电难必然更难。</p><p>居民区、商圈附近等方便用户充电的场地,只要具备安装条件(主要是电网容量)已“应装尽装”。2023年新增300万台充电桩,如果部署在不方便的地方,利用率会大打折扣。</p><p>年销量突破500万台后,中国新能源车还想高歌猛进,必须倚重插电混动产品。在这个领域,比亚迪领先“油改电”的传统车企好几个身位,特斯拉、新势力则完全无法染指。</p><p>2)垂直整合</p><p>在外行眼里比亚迪的“垂直整合”就是“什么都自己做,不划算,所以利润率低”。</p><p>比亚迪自产零部件不外乎三种原因:</p><p>一是核心零部件,包括电池、电机、电控、IGBT芯片,全部自己设计、自己制造、自给自足。长期不懈的投资、研发,加上规模够大,与新能源车相关的核心技术,比亚迪均处于行业领先地位。</p><p>以动力电池为例,2022年H1装机容量34GWh,同比增长168%,相当于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>同期产量的27.2%。</p><p>2022年H1新能源车销量增长了315%,而动力电池装机容量只增长了168%,因为插电混动车电池容量仅为纯电动车的五分之一。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/563df89567882ba83547c423ab519a9f\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"276\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>如果特斯拉采购刀片电池成真,将为比亚迪动力电池打开外供之门。预计从2024年开始,机装容量会迅速提高,缩小与宁德时代的距离。</p><p>时至今日,还有人认为比亚迪不该自研、自造动力电池?</p><p>在疫情冲击下,全球供应链时断时续,比亚迪能将不利影响降至最低,产量逆势增长,正是因为可能被“卡脖子”的零部件比亚迪基本都能自己造。</p><p>第二类非核心零部件,比亚迪自产交易成本更低。根据科斯1930年代提出的“交易成本理论”,企业对外采购要付出谈判、监督、验货、违约处理等附加成本(包括时间、金钱和机会)。</p><p>进入2022年,比亚迪新车型“下饺子”,如果所有零部件都由外部采购,与供应商谈判、协调进度、更改设计……“扯皮”的事情会很多。没有强大的自有零部件配套能力,怎能“左手王朝、右手海洋”。</p><p>第三是非核心零部件,但比亚迪生产成本更低。比亚迪集团本身就是产业集群,产品涵盖手机零部件、智能家居、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>、无人机、通讯设备、医疗设备,具备材料开发、产品设计、供应链管理能力。如果自产零部件性价比更高,为什么要从外部采购。</p><p>除上述三种情况之外,比亚迪自然会引入外部供应商,例如博世、采埃孚、布雷博……国内供应商更多,A股已形成“比亚迪供应商”板块。</p><p>比亚迪早已是中国新能源车霸主,因手里两张“王牌”特斯拉没有,成为全球新能源车霸主只是时间问题,与巴菲特减持与否没有半毛钱关系。#王牌又不是老巴给的#</p><p><b>“增收不增利”不是比亚迪的宿命</b></p><p>1)提高单车毛利润,并非不能,是不想</p><p>特斯拉早年主力车型为Model S、Model X,2017年销量将将突破10万,出厂均价55.9万(人民币,下同),单车毛利润11.9万、毛利润率21.2%。</p><p>2018年交付24.8万台、首次超过比亚迪。由于Model 3开始交付,2018年出厂均价降至47.5万,较2017年低8.4万,但毛利润率却提高了1.2个百分点。</p><p>2021年特斯拉销量达93.6万台,单车价格降至30万元,毛利润率却提高了26.5%,每台车赚8万元。</p><p>进入2022年,特斯拉数度涨价,销售均价提高至33.5万元,毛利润率27.8%,每台车赚9.3万元!</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f249a860b26b47b994752540ef99529\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>外行认为比亚迪汽车档次低,售价低,毛利润率肯定没有特斯拉高。实际上,过往六个年度中的四个,比亚迪汽车业务毛利润率高于特斯拉。</p><p>2016年比亚迪主力车型是F3、秦和e6,只有唐勉强算得上“中档”,但比亚迪汽车业务毛利润率高达28.2%。那一年,特斯拉主力车型是Model S、Model X,毛利润率23.6%,较比亚迪低4.6%个百分点。</p><p>2017年、2019年、2020年,比亚迪汽车业务毛利润率均高于特斯拉。“比亚迪车档次低毛利润率必然低”、“比亚迪天然不会赚钱”都是无稽之谈。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ff258db8b86f910ef397d098e2fad4e\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"326\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>说比亚迪不赚钱的人,认为特斯拉天然就会赚钱,而且很会赚钱。殊不知特斯拉连续多年亏损,2017年亏损高达22.4亿美元。直到2020年才扭亏为盈,满打满算刚过上两年“好日子”。</p><p>进入2022年,特斯拉的几次涨价动作属于典型的“撇脂定价法”(market-skimming pricing)——在强大竞品出现前,将品牌溢价能力挖掘到极致,多赚一点是一点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86c79c6edcbbed447e13a98e9bd23264\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>比亚迪没有采取同样的策略,否则在手中积压70万定单的情况下,每台车涨一两万,如果热度不减就再涨一两万。或者在新车发布时,把原定价格提高几万,如果遇冷就搞搞优惠……#平庸之辈足以玩转这些营销把戏#</p><p>归根结底,王传福不认为30万的车每台赚9万可以持续。但只要想,比亚迪每台赚两三万不成问题。</p><p>实际上,随着新车型定位提高,2022年H1比亚迪出厂均价达到19.4万元/台,比2021年高3.8万元。</p><p>销量遥遥领先、价格中枢不断上移,垂直整合+深度把控产业链,低利润不是比亚迪的宿命。</p><p>2)经营活动现金流净额与特斯拉旗鼓相当</p><p>特斯拉、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>都曾连续亏损多年,但经营活动产生的现金流始终为正。例如,2018年特斯拉亏损11亿美元,经营活动现金净流入达21亿美元(约合138亿人民币),高于比亚迪。</p><p>2020年特斯拉被比亚迪超过,落后44亿人民币。2021年,特斯拉反超比亚迪,经营活动现金流领先87亿。</p><p>2022年H1,比亚迪经营活动现金流432亿,再度领先。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a23f0c6df5d62101629ebe6eb38f65\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>特斯拉最新市值约8500亿美元,比亚迪7800亿人民币。经营活动现金流旗鼓相当,两家市值差距有点大。</p><p>*以上分析仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1571189977230","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特减持比亚迪,无关大局</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特减持比亚迪,无关大局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-09-06 11:08 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5RhpJxVle9plFGC6rvcfXA><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>浪费时间猜测巴菲特减持动机,不如从第一性原理出发,思考全球碳中和大计、中国推广新能源车决心和比亚迪行业地位是否会因某位投资家的操作而发生改变。结论很清楚——巴菲特减持无关大局。无关全球碳中和大计气候变化是人类面临的重大而紧迫的挑战。远的不说,今夏高温干旱席卷全球:中国大部分地区存在中度至重度干旱、多地发布红色高温预警;欧洲多国气温突破历史极值,河湖水位下降,多国农作物估计减产;美国西部70%地区...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5RhpJxVle9plFGC6rvcfXA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17555869d5364bd1dda30b7f63d65988","relate_stocks":{"002594":"比亚迪","01211":"比亚迪股份","00285":"比亚迪电子"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5RhpJxVle9plFGC6rvcfXA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113448163","content_text":"浪费时间猜测巴菲特减持动机,不如从第一性原理出发,思考全球碳中和大计、中国推广新能源车决心和比亚迪行业地位是否会因某位投资家的操作而发生改变。结论很清楚——巴菲特减持无关大局。无关全球碳中和大计气候变化是人类面临的重大而紧迫的挑战。远的不说,今夏高温干旱席卷全球:中国大部分地区存在中度至重度干旱、多地发布红色高温预警;欧洲多国气温突破历史极值,河湖水位下降,多国农作物估计减产;美国西部70%地区处于“干旱”至“极度干旱”状态……节能减排、以低碳方式发展经济越来越成为共识,全球已有100多个国家提出碳中和计划。巴菲特是有战略眼光的优秀投资者,但认为其一举一动都昭示人类命运就大错特错了。他也担待不起。进入2022年,伯克希尔哈撒韦多次购入“西方石油公司”普通股、优先股、认购权证、期权,合计持股比例约为28%。前不久,伯克希尔哈撒韦获得美国能源监管机构批准,可以购买西方石油公司多达50%股份,为进一步增持大开方便之门。巴菲特疯狂加仓石油股的背景有二:一是美国通过“页岩油革命”跃升为世界最大产油国(2021年美国、俄罗斯、沙特石油产量分别为7.1亿吨、5.4亿吨、5.2亿吨);二是俄乌冲突引起国际油价飙升。不同公司页岩油成本差异巨大,每桶当量成本从20美元、30美元到50美元、60美元皆有,中枢在40美元左右。沙特、俄罗斯石油开采成本中枢分别为10美元、20美元。成本劣势是美国石油资本最大的“敌人”。挑动俄乌冲突进而通过制裁将俄罗斯踢出国际石油市场(制造短缺,同时阻止俄从油价上涨受益),美国石油资本正在收割全世界(包括美国选民)。巴菲特号称“西方石油公司股票能买多少就买多少”,就是来参加资本盛宴的。有意思的是,制裁下的俄罗斯石油产销量仅略微下降,2022年能源出口收入超过2021年已成定局。甚至有预测认为,俄罗斯2022年能源出口额将同比增长近40%!跨国石油公司没亏、俄罗斯没亏,印度、中国不同程度受益,倒霉的只有欧美选民。能源价格维持高位,将有力地推动新能源推广,客观上推动碳中和。公私兼顾是巴菲特最为令人钦佩之处。新能源车替代燃油车是全球碳中和大计的重要组成部分。2021年,全球新能源车渗透率达8.5%。其中挪威(70%)、德国(23%)、英国、法国、中国(13%)居前五。美国仅为4%。8月12日以微弱优势在众议院通过的《通胀消减法案》规定,电动车购买者最高可获7500美元补贴。一两个巴菲特增持石油公司、减持新能源龙头公司无法改变全球碳中和大局。无关中国推广新能源车决心据统计,我国一次能源消费总量折算为标准煤约为50亿吨/年。其中,排放因子最高的煤炭占比达70%,其它化石能源(石油、天然气)约占15%。中国二氧化碳年排放量约100亿吨(占全球总排放量的四分之一)。其中,七成碳排放来自工业,二成来自“公民建”,一成来自交通。由于中国是世界工厂,2021年出口总额3.36万亿美元,70亿吨工业碳排放中有多少是“代人受过”说不清。“代人受过”也是过。发达国家一方面大量使用价廉物美的中国工业品,另一方面动辄拿中国碳排放说事。做为负责任的大国,中国提出2030年碳达峰、2060年碳中和,这个承诺一定要实现。还有一个问题就是中国对进口石油的依赖。2021年中国石油产量为2亿吨,进口量为5.13亿吨,对外依存度达72%。中国石油消费量占世界的16.4%、进口量占世界石油贸易量的26.4%。2021年,我国汽车消耗汽油约1.19亿吨。按1吨原油提炼0.256吨汽油计算,满足汽车消耗需要4.65亿吨原油。占石油进口量的90.7%!综上所述,中国石油对外依存度超过70%,进口石油的90%被汽车烧掉。截至2022年5月底,全国汽车保有量3.07亿辆,新能源汽车保有量约1000万辆,仅占汽车总量的3.25%。不论从碳中和还是从能源安全角度,中国都要大力推广新能源车,而且越快越好。2021年,中国新能源汽车产量为327.8万辆,销量352.1万辆,渗透率13.4%。这一年,中国石油进口量首次出现下降,幅度为5.4%。影响因素很多,新能源车保有量增长必在其中。有人认为“新能源车渗透率超过30%,增速会放缓”。其实,只有当新能源车渗透率超过50%,对燃油车的替代进程才会开始。一两个巴菲特丝毫不会动摇我们的决心。有人将巴菲特此次减持与当年清仓中石油相提并论。中石油受国际油价影响,业绩波动幅度很大。清仓那年(2007年),中石油归母净利润1468亿,2016年仅为78.6亿,2017年回升到228亿,2021年922亿,2022年H1高达824亿。中石油与比亚迪没有可比性,何况一个处于将要被替代的传统能源领域,另一个是将要替代传统能源的新能源领域。无关比亚迪行业地位比亚迪有两张“王牌”:纯电/插混“两条腿”和深度整合产业链。全球新能源车玩家,不论特斯拉还是“油改电”的传统汽车厂商,更不要提“新势力”(包括华为),没有谁兼具这两张牌,难以阻挡比亚迪称雄。1)纯电、混动两条腿走路2020年,比亚迪新能源车累计销售19万台;Q4纯电、插混销量分别为5.3万台、2.3万台;2021年,比亚迪新能源车累计销量60.4万台,同比增长218%;Q4纯电、插混销量分别为12.7万台、13.6万台,同比增速分别为158%、464%;2022年H1,比亚迪新能源车销量63.8万台,超过2021全年;其中纯电、混动销量分别为32.4万台、31.5万台,已经平分秋色;2022年7月、8月两月,混动销量达17.3万台,反超纯电动车。越来越多的人认识到纯电动车不是最终解决方案(有可能是氢能源),因为化学电池能量密度再怎样提高也只有汽油、液氢的零头。特斯拉21700电芯能量密度为247Wh/Kg,高调推出的4680电芯体积是21700的5.48倍、能量提升5倍,能量密度几乎没有变化。在电池结构上大作文章,说明提高能量密度的空间已基本不存在。纯电动与插电混动都是过渡方案,后者有三大优势:一是不受充电桩推广进度制约。截至2022年7月,纯电动车保有量、充电桩总数分别为844万台、398万台(其中公共充电桩158万台,私人充电桩240万台),车桩比为2.1(844/398)。如此笼统计算难以反映车主真实境遇:604万台没有“私桩”的车主,只有158万台公共充电桩可用,车桩比为3.8;240万“桩主”,不会让他人使用私桩,还时不时要使用公桩(开车出门不能带着私桩)。假设240万台车使用公共充电桩的概率为10%,相当于24万台无私桩车,这样算出的车桩比接近4.0。2022年前7个月,纯电动车销量196万台,新增充电桩136万台,两者相差60万台。已经制约纯电动车推广的“充电难”,将会越来越难。二是大幅降低对锂、镍、钴等金属的依赖纯电动车续航里程约为插电混动车的4~5倍,电池容量、消耗的资源也是后者的4~5倍。例如,比亚迪宋PLUS(插电混动版)纯电续航110公里、电池容量18.3kWh;蔚来ES6续航610公里、电池容量100kWh;特斯拉Model X续航605公里、电池容量也是100kWh。2021年中国纯电、插电混动车销量之比约 5:1。制造动力电池消耗的资源,95%用于纯电动车。假如纯电、插电混动车销量的比例调整为1:5,可以节约60%的资源,特别是中国无法自给自足的锂、钴、镍(中国缺锂、少镍、没钴)。王传福曾说“中国不能从石油被卡脖子变成电池被卡脖子”。推广插电混动是重要的解决之道。三是消除里程焦虑,促进更多民众购买、使用新能源车,节能减排效果更好。只有一个“购车指标”或只打算购买一辆机动车的消费者,考虑到远行的不时之需,对购买纯电动车难免有顾虑。同时拥有燃油车和纯电动车的消费者,如果用车半径超过50公里,除非纯电动车满电,肯定倾向于开燃油车出行。里程焦虑+充电难影响购买和使用,不利于新能源车推广。插电混动车可油可电,完全不存在里程焦虑。比亚迪插电混动车型最高纯电续航超过200公里,足以满足日常用车需求。由于用电成本远远低于烧油。不需宣传、不必监督,车主会尽最大可能用电不烧油。无需专家、学者鼓与呼,升斗小民天然懂得趋利避害,插电混动车在新能源车销量中的比重稳步上升。2022年7月,纯电、插电混动车销量分别为33.6万台、10.1万台,插电混动车占比提高到23%。2023年新能源车销量要突破1000万台,假如纯电动车占比仍为80%,意味着新增800万台纯电动车。预计2022年底,充电桩数量有望突破500万台,2023年再增300万台,年未达到800万台(远超发改委2025年654万台规划)。但新增充电桩仍比纯电动车销售少500万台(800万减300万),充电难必然更难。居民区、商圈附近等方便用户充电的场地,只要具备安装条件(主要是电网容量)已“应装尽装”。2023年新增300万台充电桩,如果部署在不方便的地方,利用率会大打折扣。年销量突破500万台后,中国新能源车还想高歌猛进,必须倚重插电混动产品。在这个领域,比亚迪领先“油改电”的传统车企好几个身位,特斯拉、新势力则完全无法染指。2)垂直整合在外行眼里比亚迪的“垂直整合”就是“什么都自己做,不划算,所以利润率低”。比亚迪自产零部件不外乎三种原因:一是核心零部件,包括电池、电机、电控、IGBT芯片,全部自己设计、自己制造、自给自足。长期不懈的投资、研发,加上规模够大,与新能源车相关的核心技术,比亚迪均处于行业领先地位。以动力电池为例,2022年H1装机容量34GWh,同比增长168%,相当于宁德时代同期产量的27.2%。2022年H1新能源车销量增长了315%,而动力电池装机容量只增长了168%,因为插电混动车电池容量仅为纯电动车的五分之一。如果特斯拉采购刀片电池成真,将为比亚迪动力电池打开外供之门。预计从2024年开始,机装容量会迅速提高,缩小与宁德时代的距离。时至今日,还有人认为比亚迪不该自研、自造动力电池?在疫情冲击下,全球供应链时断时续,比亚迪能将不利影响降至最低,产量逆势增长,正是因为可能被“卡脖子”的零部件比亚迪基本都能自己造。第二类非核心零部件,比亚迪自产交易成本更低。根据科斯1930年代提出的“交易成本理论”,企业对外采购要付出谈判、监督、验货、违约处理等附加成本(包括时间、金钱和机会)。进入2022年,比亚迪新车型“下饺子”,如果所有零部件都由外部采购,与供应商谈判、协调进度、更改设计……“扯皮”的事情会很多。没有强大的自有零部件配套能力,怎能“左手王朝、右手海洋”。第三是非核心零部件,但比亚迪生产成本更低。比亚迪集团本身就是产业集群,产品涵盖手机零部件、智能家居、机器人、无人机、通讯设备、医疗设备,具备材料开发、产品设计、供应链管理能力。如果自产零部件性价比更高,为什么要从外部采购。除上述三种情况之外,比亚迪自然会引入外部供应商,例如博世、采埃孚、布雷博……国内供应商更多,A股已形成“比亚迪供应商”板块。比亚迪早已是中国新能源车霸主,因手里两张“王牌”特斯拉没有,成为全球新能源车霸主只是时间问题,与巴菲特减持与否没有半毛钱关系。#王牌又不是老巴给的#“增收不增利”不是比亚迪的宿命1)提高单车毛利润,并非不能,是不想特斯拉早年主力车型为Model 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","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$大家觉得理想汽车今天晚上股价会到多少啊?回复的我给你们都点赞。[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398699362","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4570,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3568030191514225","authorId":"3568030191514225","name":"Peter520","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3568030191514225","authorIdStr":"3568030191514225"},"content":"感觉最近不会涨似的,昨天小鹏出11月交付创新高,今天还不是跌的很惨,感觉最近美国新法案很打击中概股","text":"感觉最近不会涨似的,昨天小鹏出11月交付创新高,今天还不是跌的很惨,感觉最近美国新法案很打击中概股","html":"感觉最近不会涨似的,昨天小鹏出11月交付创新高,今天还不是跌的很惨,感觉最近美国新法案很打击中概股"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336204816,"gmtCreate":1610099580935,"gmtModify":1703742662086,"author":{"id":"3549056383652321","authorId":"3549056383652321","name":"Mickeyperk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de95e809898355e54d91b791ce46fc9f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549056383652321","authorIdStr":"3549056383652321"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>明显理想汽车下探已经获得支撑,探底已经结束,觉得今天晚上理想汽车要大涨的。一起点赞!","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$明显理想汽车下探已经获得支撑,探底已经结束,觉得今天晚上理想汽车要大涨的。一起点赞!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396667716","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3457775692512407","authorId":"3457775692512407","name":"羊上树","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a062d26a58e0000d0769d10134a3a935","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3457775692512407","authorIdStr":"3457775692512407"},"content":"确实是大涨,空军的利润大涨","text":"确实是大涨,空军的利润大涨","html":"确实是大涨,空军的利润大涨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336440716,"gmtCreate":1610129482535,"gmtModify":1703743042517,"author":{"id":"3549056383652321","authorId":"3549056383652321","name":"Mickeyperk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de95e809898355e54d91b791ce46fc9f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549056383652321","authorIdStr":"3549056383652321"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写的非常好,理想汽车,坚定持有,当年,有多少机构看空特斯拉,有多少机构认为蔚来活不下去的?世俗的力量大的可怕! 唯有时间证明一切!","listText":"写的非常好,理想汽车,坚定持有,当年,有多少机构看空特斯拉,有多少机构认为蔚来活不下去的?世俗的力量大的可怕! 唯有时间证明一切!","text":"写的非常好,理想汽车,坚定持有,当年,有多少机构看空特斯拉,有多少机构认为蔚来活不下去的?世俗的力量大的可怕! 唯有时间证明一切!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336440716","repostId":"2101293396","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2101293396","pubTimestamp":1610015340,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2101293396?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-01-07 18:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"理想汽车投资人:为何我们持续重仓电动车","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2101293396","media":"21世纪商业评论","summary":"于2020年7月上市的理想汽车,当下股价较发行价增长超150%,市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中,投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投,无疑是赢家之一。4年来,蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链?复盘蓝驰创投持续下注理想汽车的过程,有助于我们更好理解这个火热的市场。理想汽车创始人李想理想汽车在常州曾开了一个发布会,表示股东和客户愿意来可以,酒店得自理。","content":"<div>\n<p>押注整车企业有点晚了,智能汽车产业链上还有很多机会。文/ 杨松 编辑/ 鄢子为智能电动车赛道2020年备受追捧,特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏股价不断飙升。于2020年7月上市的理想汽车,当下股价较发行价增长超150%,市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中,投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投,无疑是赢家之一。4年来,蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链?为何选择押注理想汽车?在蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇看来,第三方...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101071834437a449d56&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>理想汽车投资人:为何我们持续重仓电动车</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n理想汽车投资人:为何我们持续重仓电动车\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-01-07 18:29 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101071834437a449d56&s=b><strong>21世纪商业评论</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>押注整车企业有点晚了,智能汽车产业链上还有很多机会。文/ 杨松 编辑/ 鄢子为智能电动车赛道2020年备受追捧,特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏股价不断飙升。于2020年7月上市的理想汽车,当下股价较发行价增长超150%,市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中,投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投,无疑是赢家之一。4年来,蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链?为何选择押注理想汽车?在蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇看来,第三方...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101071834437a449d56&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202101071834437a449d56&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2101293396","content_text":"押注整车企业有点晚了,智能汽车产业链上还有很多机会。文/ 杨松 编辑/ 鄢子为智能电动车赛道2020年备受追捧,特斯拉、蔚来、理想、小鹏股价不断飙升。于2020年7月上市的理想汽车,当下股价较发行价增长超150%,市值高达260亿美元。这一轮热潮中,投了理想汽车5轮的蓝驰创投,无疑是赢家之一。4年来,蓝驰创投为何持续重仓智能电动车产业链?为何选择押注理想汽车?在蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇看来,第三方自动驾驶公司提供的价值有限,数据积累较慢,整车企业的资源整合能力更强,可实现价值闭环。蓝驰创投管理合伙人朱天宇理想汽车创始人李想打动朱天宇的地方在于,有远见,很早就摸清楚了行业规律;效率高,能做到及时交付。复盘蓝驰创投持续下注理想汽车的过程,有助于我们更好理解这个火热的市场。以下为朱天宇的自述(经编辑整理):发现机会2016年之前,我们对投资新造车企业是有顾虑的。对早期投资机构来讲,押注一家整车企业充满挑战,因为它是一个资本密集型行业。我们早期的判断是,汽车产业变革的最核心驱动力是智能化而不是新能源化。智能化由需求驱动,新能源化是供给驱动。一旦新的能源供给形式叠加智能化,就能对载具产生巨大影响。智能化革命,对于人和物在空间内的流动方式,可能带来一次重新定义的机会。以车为例,当车从出行工具变成智能产品的时候,有大脑、小脑、眼睛、耳朵,变成了一个帮助人类去延伸感知体系的一个新工具。来源:理想汽车官网蓝驰创投始终沿着一条技术发展的主线去看待智能汽车行业,公司内部有句话叫“没有大数据,何谈人工智能”。在出行领域,自动驾驶是个典型的应用场景,数据生成和积累速度非常快。自动驾驶行业太复杂。我们当时看了一些做第三方自动驾驶的公司,团队履历非常漂亮,但提供的价值没能形成闭环,只能在感知层面做一些简单拼装,距离真正装车,实现决策和控制层面的闭环商用非常困难。数据是一个根,自动驾驶要做 一系列corner case(极端情况)的训练,不能只靠仿真,必须得靠更多实测的数据。在自动驾驶方向上,我们发现形成价值闭环是离不开整车厂的,因为整车厂的资源整合能力是这个价值链上最强的。蓝驰创投开始从整车角度去看自动驾驶和人工智能如何落地,早期我们调研了理想、小鹏、蔚来等企业。我们希望找到能把场景想清楚、需求想清楚、闭环想清楚、问题和挑战想清楚的整车企业。比如,我国的城市规划,人均土地面积,电网基础能支持什么量级的电桩分布,能否满足用户快捷的充电需求?十几年前,互联网行业“Copy to China”的模式能成功,造车这个事也能行吗?只有李想给我们的答案是最清晰的。看中李想蓝驰看中李想有三大原因:会花钱、效率高、有远见。在资金使用上,李想把钱用在刀刃上。我们投资方看重资本效率,因为市场迟早要回归到利润创造能力,不是看市值创造能力。李想知道怎么用更少的钱把事情做出来。他没有吹牛,已经成功两次了,泡泡网第一次,汽车之家第二次。理想汽车创始人李想理想汽车在常州曾开了一个发布会,表示股东和客户愿意来可以,酒店得自理。大家对这个没有不满,VIP客户在那儿吃盒饭,很开心,因为看他把钱都花在造车上了。该花钱的地方,李想也舍得投入。举个例子,为什么交付之前需要更多的资金?如果想确保产品质量,用5辆车去做路测还是10辆车去测,能发现的质量问题是不一样的。李想管理能力强,能把互联网产品经理、汽车工程师、在地面做汽车服务的人、销售的人放在一起,让他们好好共事。传统车企管理分散,每一个小部件都有一个ECU(电子控制单元),这和行业百年来形成协作分工体系相关。传统汽车行业现阶段是用分散式的架构和协作体系,和智能时代的集中控制、集中研发、快速迭代的架构体系比拼。刚创业时,李想就想清楚了如何将不同生产力组合起来,他清楚组织要长什么样,几种不同性格的人在一起怎么共事。该厂的工程师说,从没想到造车还可以这样高效率,以这样的信息沟通方式,因为过去整车厂都是分散式的。到理想汽车尽调的过程中,我印象特别深刻的是,他们负责生产设计和制造同事的办公室背后有两张大图,是时间表。他告诉我们:“这个时间表里的每一个点,都没有错失掉。”当时市场处在什么阶段?2016年,PPT造车正火。一个时间点都不错过,这是很难做到的。还有一点打动我们的是,他对未来行业的准确判断。李想对特斯拉的观察很透彻。有一次,李想、我和雪球的方三文在北京顺义的一家酒吧里聊天。我们复盘了几年前李想对特斯拉的判断,觉得非常准确。“别看 model x 的产量上不去,只要 model Y、model 3 的规划一旦上来,所有主机厂都会非常痛苦。”他几年前就做了这个预言,认为当特斯拉销量达到市场份额的5%时,很多人就没有利润了;达到10%时,很多人没有毛利;超过10%,很多人要退出市场。之前有人不相信,现在已经发生了。看清楚特斯拉的优势后,他反过来推演在中国市场要怎样做才能赢——如果选特斯拉竞争范围内的轿车车型,就很有挑战,得有差异化打法。李想的解决方案是,定位 SUV,这恰恰是现在中国市场增长最快的汽车品类。万亿赛道理想所在的智能汽车行业,是一个至少万亿美金的大赛道,会出现市值千亿美金的大公司。新造车企业要想提升价值,需要跨越几个大台阶:第一是销量的突破;第二是智能化;第三是运营模式的不断优化。比如,对于理想汽车来讲,现在最重要的是要把销量做上去,把智能模块做出来。前期特斯拉的股价走势,一度随着产能跌宕起伏而波动。当智能化体验带领特斯拉销量一骑绝尘的时候,市场才恍然大悟。但胜局已定,智能化体验背后,特斯拉软硬一体的自研壁垒已竖立。资本市场之前低估特斯拉,是因为销量少。但和传统车企不同的是,特斯拉把销量带来的造血能力,不遗余力地投入在研发上,优化智能化体验上。现在特斯拉股价高得惊人,资本市场狂热追捧。我们觉得,中国造车新势力可能也会经历这样恍然大悟的时刻,希望用的时间会少些。整体而言,市场够大,大家都有机会。接下来新造车企业要提防的是华为、苹果、亚马逊、Google等大科技公司。最大的风险是,你不知道竞争对手会从哪里杀出来,往往干掉你的都不是你的同行。汽车科技赛道上的创业者,尤其是从互联网和TMT行业进入的人来说,要有敬畏之心。汽车行业专业性强、产品周期长,和互联网的快速迭代不一样,他们要转换视角。传统汽车厂的资深人士创业,则需要具有商业闭环能力、工程能力和复合能力。我们不能单纯依赖那些算法刷分刷得高的选手。创始人的认知迭代速度,就是他的天花板,决定了公司的发展速度。对此,蓝驰有自己的“三段论”:创业者是不是“知道错、愿意改、改得快。”“知道错”这个事情,刷掉了90%的人,尤其是学霸,他们往往不觉得自己错了。知错后愿不愿意改?愿不愿意走出舒适区?9%的人又刷掉了。最后,还要改得快,这需要很强的自我认知、成就动机、和高度的自律。从投资视角来看,现在押注整车企业有点晚了。但是,整个智能汽车产业链上,还有很多机会,比如汽车电子的重构、数字化的过程,智能座舱和交互相关的输入输出需求。从长远来看,当车的智能座舱或者数字化交互界面形成生态的时候,结合衣、食、住、行、办公,会有一些具体应用场景,可能率先冒出一些应用。(作者:杨松 编辑:鄢子为)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3572816897296122","authorId":"3572816897296122","name":"九里堤第一巴图鲁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/192d196d1df3fbe386a67c828cb5abc9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3572816897296122","authorIdStr":"3572816897296122"},"content":"从第一部流产的低速电动车开始 到增程的ONE 看得出来李想就是首鼠两端 抄近道钻政策空子 只是为了能挣块钱 一会儿说坚定搞增程 一会儿又重仓电动车。。。","text":"从第一部流产的低速电动车开始 到增程的ONE 看得出来李想就是首鼠两端 抄近道钻政策空子 只是为了能挣块钱 一会儿说坚定搞增程 一会儿又重仓电动车。。。","html":"从第一部流产的低速电动车开始 到增程的ONE 看得出来李想就是首鼠两端 抄近道钻政策空子 只是为了能挣块钱 一会儿说坚定搞增程 一会儿又重仓电动车。。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":394589320,"gmtCreate":1608051137260,"gmtModify":1703850917952,"author":{"id":"3549056383652321","authorId":"3549056383652321","name":"Mickeyperk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de95e809898355e54d91b791ce46fc9f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549056383652321","authorIdStr":"3549056383652321"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>认为理想汽车是垃圾的,点同意了!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>认为理想汽车是垃圾的,点同意了!","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$认为理想汽车是垃圾的,点同意了!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":26,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/394589320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335508098,"gmtCreate":1610616389214,"gmtModify":1703745637057,"author":{"id":"3549056383652321","authorId":"3549056383652321","name":"Mickeyperk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de95e809898355e54d91b791ce46fc9f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549056383652321","authorIdStr":"3549056383652321"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>赶紧撤吧。听我的,今天可能不妙。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>赶紧撤吧。听我的,今天可能不妙。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$赶紧撤吧。听我的,今天可能不妙。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335508098","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3557310656055583","authorId":"3557310656055583","name":"XinMoney","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6f40786b00f32b1358b659ab807a557","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3557310656055583","authorIdStr":"3557310656055583"},"content":"看你的发帖记录应该是做空了特斯拉和蔚来吧,玩不起别玩了,在这蛊惑人心品行是真差","text":"看你的发帖记录应该是做空了特斯拉和蔚来吧,玩不起别玩了,在这蛊惑人心品行是真差","html":"看你的发帖记录应该是做空了特斯拉和蔚来吧,玩不起别玩了,在这蛊惑人心品行是真差"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337625320,"gmtCreate":1611138075860,"gmtModify":1703748265332,"author":{"id":"3549056383652321","authorId":"3549056383652321","name":"Mickeyperk","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de95e809898355e54d91b791ce46fc9f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3549056383652321","authorIdStr":"3549056383652321"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBIO\">$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$</a>感觉这只股要起飞。同意的点赞。这不会是下一只10倍股吧?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBIO\">$iBio Inc.(IBIO)$</a>感觉这只股要起飞。同意的点赞。这不会是下一只10倍股吧?","text":"$iBio 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