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超超_6103
07-08
川普的原话是,“也许我们会采取一些其他行动,可能会让油价再涨一点,但我认为不会涨很多”,意思是会打击伊朗,油价上涨的幅度可以接受。这**媒体故意歪曲意思
特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价
超超_6103
07-07
半场开香槟,发完就跳[开心]
恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,美团涨超7%,腾讯涨超5%
超超_6103
07-01
英伟达前几年涨了多少?市值都快五万亿了。还能这么一直高增长下去?估值缓一缓,市场观望一下不是很正常吗?你们这家媒体,真是一年到头可以找到800个角度找美国的负面新闻
对比鲜明!美国芯片股创“史上最佳季度”,而英伟达“相差甚远”
超超_6103
06-15
在你们的新闻里,美国不会有一丁点好消息的,美国永远处在崩溃的边缘
为何美伊协议对美联储而言未必是鸽派信号?
超超_6103
06-10
赶紧回应,天天口嗨,浑身上下就嘴还是硬的
伊朗武装部队发言人:将对美国威胁作出强力回应
超超_6103
05-26
最高领袖开战第一天就挂了,还更猛烈回应,这国家除了放嘴炮还会干啥?
伊朗称若战争重启将更加猛烈回应,并阻止地区石油出口
超超_6103
05-26
怎么能发这种新闻?美股药丸啊,太高了都是泡沫[开心]
“黑马”发力:标普500盈利增速创近五年新高
超超_6103
05-04
那就是没击中,别口嗨了
伊朗称美军舰遭导弹攻击,美官员否认美船只被伊导弹击中
超超_6103
04-29
快点嘛,看看你们还有啥货
伊朗:若美继续扣押伊船只,将采取前所未有的军事行动
超超_6103
04-28
对对对,美股又要完蛋了[开心]
鲍威尔“告别日”+ Mag7 财报夜,市场拿什么硬扛?
超超_6103
04-02
伊朗人民的敌人就是你们自己
伊朗最高领袖顾问:霍尔木兹海峡对伊朗人民的敌人将永远关闭
超超_6103
03-17
马上全绿了
港股期权 | 三大指数齐涨,期权半日成交近44万张;腾讯、小米、美团交投活跃
超超_6103
03-04
完了,高盛反买......
高盛力挺美股:别怕战争与AI冲击!每次回调都是买入良机
超超_6103
02-21
既然是这样的话,那就把国内那几支标普500和纳指100的场外基金全部开放吧,别再限制外汇和额度了,反正大A是牛市,反正大家都不买美股,自信一点,是吧?
“美国例外论”正在退潮?美股吸引力降至五年多低点 大幅跑输海外市场
超超_6103
2025-12-14
你们是不是当美股和缅A一样,一天到晚大盘不涨,一天到晚轮动割韭菜?
华尔街的“2026美股主题”是轮动!“老登”胜过Mag 7,高盛高呼“周期股尚未被完全定价”
超超_6103
2025-10-29
诺基亚也是昔日的大佬啊,在今天的大佬面前就是个零头,真是此一时彼一时
诺基亚暴涨21%,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资
超超_6103
2025-10-14
甭管速度多少,要看碰撞情况。车侧面完整,基本没有变型,为什么车门打不开?设计缺陷就是设计缺陷,这也能洗,下次你家人撞成这样看你还洗不洗
超超_6103
2025-09-23
意味着美股全是泡沫,即将股灾,美国药丸。你们这家媒体一撅屁股我就知道要放什么屁,从20年开始天天都是这种文章,没别的新闻写了吧?
美股与黄金同创新高,这意味着什么?
超超_6103
2025-08-29
想笑
市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工
超超_6103
2025-07-17
中华之光啊
台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%,超出市场预期并创历史新高
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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22:28","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649994321","media":"智通财经","summary":"特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价。","content":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n<div>\n 特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价。 </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价</title>\n<style 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","listText":"半场开香槟,发完就跳[开心] ","text":"半场开香槟,发完就跳[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583113397781048","repostId":"1178210562","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178210562","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1783390578,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178210562?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-07 10:16","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,美团涨超7%,腾讯涨超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178210562","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月7日,恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,$美团-W(03690)$涨超7%,$腾讯控股(00700)$、$智谱(02513)$涨超5%,$华虹宏力(01347)$涨近5%,$阿里巴巴-W(09988)$涨近4%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月7日,恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>涨超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹宏力</a>涨近5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a>涨近4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5864a9e74ce1e6ce51410274fcdb789a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,美团涨超7%,腾讯涨超5%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,美团涨超7%,腾讯涨超5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-07 10:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>7月7日,恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>涨超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02513\">智谱</a>涨超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01347\">华虹宏力</a>涨近5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a>涨近4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5864a9e74ce1e6ce51410274fcdb789a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"IE00B8L5B284.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) INC","LU0675040207.SGD":"JPM ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999001689.USD":"施罗德亚洲成长股票","LU1226287792.SGD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SEL S-CHINA ALLOCATION OPP \"P\" (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999001226.SGD":"UNITED SUSTAINABLE ASIA TOP 50 \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0441854154.USD":"JPM ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) 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PTF(AD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178210562","content_text":"7月7日,恒生科技指数日内涨幅扩大至2%,美团-W涨超7%,腾讯控股、智谱涨超5%,华虹宏力涨近5%,阿里巴巴-W涨近4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09088":0.6,"LDEM":0.6,"XSOE":0.6,"03690":1.5,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"BKF":0.6,"IEMG":1.5,"02837":0.6,"FFEM":0.6,"JADE":0.6,"TCHmain":1.5,"SOCL":0.6,"09067":0.6,"KWEB":0.6,"TCEHY":1.5,"BIDD":0.6,"03088":0.6,"KTEC":1.5,"JEMA":0.6,"HMTD.SI":0.6,"EMC":0.6,"OND":1.5,"07552":0.6,"FDNI":0.6,"03417":0.6,"AAXJ":0.6,"MPNGY":1.5,"03032":0.6,"ESPO":0.6,"DRAG":0.6,"EDZ":1.5,"00700":1.5,"03067":0.6,"07226":0.6,"HSTECH":1.5,"CXSE":0.6,"03423":0.6,"TCHI":0.6,"ODDS":0.6,"03033":0.6,"METmain":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":43,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":580998109209512,"gmtCreate":1782875420629,"gmtModify":1782875422697,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"英伟达前几年涨了多少?市值都快五万亿了。还能这么一直高增长下去?估值缓一缓,市场观望一下不是很正常吗?你们这家媒体,真是一年到头可以找到800个角度找美国的负面新闻","listText":"英伟达前几年涨了多少?市值都快五万亿了。还能这么一直高增长下去?估值缓一缓,市场观望一下不是很正常吗?你们这家媒体,真是一年到头可以找到800个角度找美国的负面新闻","text":"英伟达前几年涨了多少?市值都快五万亿了。还能这么一直高增长下去?估值缓一缓,市场观望一下不是很正常吗?你们这家媒体,真是一年到头可以找到800个角度找美国的负面新闻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/580998109209512","repostId":"2648593022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2648593022","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782866654,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2648593022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-01 08:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"对比鲜明!美国芯片股创“史上最佳季度”,而英伟达“相差甚远”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648593022","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"费城半导体指数二季度暴涨88%、上半年翻倍,创1999年互联网泡沫以来最强年度表现,闪迪飙升857%、美光市值突破万亿。然而这场盛宴暗藏裂痕——AI芯片霸主英伟达以7%的年内涨幅垫底,对冲基金以十年最快速度出逃,散户疯狂涌入推高波动率指数涨至83%,一场史诗级狂欢与历史级风险正同步上演。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国芯片股在2026年上半年创下历史性涨幅,但这场盛宴并非人人共享,AI芯片龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>今年以来涨幅仅约7%,在半导体指数成分股中垫底,与整个板块的狂欢形成鲜明反差。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截止周二收盘,<strong>费城半导体指数第二季度大涨88%,创下该指数有史以来最佳单季表现,上半年累计涨幅达101%</strong>,有望创下自1999年互联网泡沫以来最强年度表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下,纳斯达克100指数同期上涨28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数上涨15%,均远逊于芯片板块。推动这轮行情的核心动力,是市场对AI基础设施需求的强烈押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,就在庆功时刻,上周半导体指数单周重挫7.9%,创下2025年4月以来最大单周跌幅,本周一盘中更一度下跌3.2%后反弹收涨3.8%,剧烈震荡令投资者开始重新审视这轮涨势的可持续性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,英伟达的相对落后折射出AI芯片需求正在向更广泛的半导体公司分散,其能否凭借下一代Vera Rubin硬件重夺主导地位,成为市场关注焦点。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">史上最佳季度:内存芯片领跑,涨幅令大盘望尘莫及</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本轮芯片股行情的最大赢家,集中在内存与存储领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>以857%的年内涨幅位居标普500成分股首位;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>以300%的涨幅紧随其后,市值突破1万亿美元,跻身全球最大美国内存芯片制造商之列。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>以及大幅反弹的英特尔共同构成涨幅榜前五。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2686e7bac9d6e886ca4686433d498853\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"472\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Thornburg Investment Management投资组合经理Sean Sun表示:"我们看到投资者在追逐半导体行业的瓶颈所在,目前这对内存板块有利,对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>作为代工厂的复苏也有利。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,韩国内存芯片巨头海力士正寻求在美国市场融资294亿美元,进一步印证了内存赛道的资本吸引力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达掉队:AI芯片需求分散,竞争格局生变</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达是本轮行情中最引人注目的"落后者"。作为全球市值最大的公司和AI芯片的代名词,英伟达今年以来涨幅仅约7%,在费城半导体指数成分股中排名垫底。博通以约7.9%的涨幅同样远落后于板块整体。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44e9485efd12718647644aa137603d05\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2236\" tg-height=\"1042\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据分析,英伟达落后的核心原因在于,<strong>AI芯片的庞大支出正被分散至更广泛的半导体公司,竞争已从最初与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>的正面交锋,扩展至定制芯片设计商以及英特尔等CPU专业厂商。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sean Sun对此解释称:"英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>正在遭遇那些瓶颈,它们不再像以前那样是高弹性品种。我认为它们仍会表现不错,但现在投资者想要的是对最强主题更大的弹性敞口。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场目前的关键问题是:英伟达下一代Vera Rubin硬件能否建立足够显著的性能优势,使其重新成为AI基础设施的首选供应商。然而,据巴伦周刊报道,即便性能表现亮眼,大型科技公司也未必愿意过度依赖单一供应商,尤其是在其资本支出规模正面临股东压力的背景下。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">UBS Global Wealth Management首席投资官Mark Haefele在研报中写道:"超大规模云厂商本月股价下跌,表明股东要求其证明支出合理性的压力正在上升,<strong>我们承认资本支出增速放缓的风险在边际上有所上升。"</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值分化:英伟达创近年新低,部分个股严重透支</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管整体板块估值已明显偏高,但内部分化极为显著。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">费城半导体指数目前市盈率约为26倍预期盈利,远高于10年均值19倍,接近2024年创下的30倍近期高点。相比之下,纳斯达克100指数市盈率为23倍,标普500为20倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>板块内部,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">ARM Holdings</a> Plc的12个月远期市盈率超过140倍,英特尔约为100倍,按传统估值标准均属严重透支。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达则处于另一个极端——其远期市盈率仅约18倍,为2018年以来最低,远低于其10年均值36倍。美光的远期市盈率约为8倍,部分华尔街人士将这一低估值解读为营收和利润已触顶的预警信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bloomberg Intelligence数据显示,<strong>分析师对芯片股前景日趋乐观,预计2027年行业盈利将增长49%,高于4月时预期的35%;营收增速预期也从29%上调至37%,均大幅领先标普500整体预期(盈利增长17%,营收增长7.4%)。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">波动加剧:散户涌入与对冲基金撤退并存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高涨幅背后,芯片股的波动性同样创下历史纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博报道,追踪半导体ETF未来波动率的Cboe半导体ETF波动率指数今年以来已上涨83%,若年末维持这一涨幅,将创下该指数有史以来最大年度涨幅,目前已升至2025年4月特朗普关税冲击市场以来的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本月以来,费城半导体指数单日涨跌幅超过1%的交易日占绝大多数,期间出现过单日最大涨幅7.9%,也出现过单日跌幅逾10%的极端行情。<strong>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>大宗经纪业务数据,对冲基金正以十年来最快速度抛售科技、媒体和电信类股票,而散户投资者的大量涌入则进一步放大了价格波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cantor Fitzgerald高级董事总经理兼科技分析师CJ Muse表示:"投资者结构的新变化正在加剧波动,与此同时,几乎每周都有新的AI能力白皮书问世。我们将在这种高度波动的市场中持续一段时间。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出,市场当前最大的担忧在于超大规模云厂商能否在2026年之后维持并扩大资本支出,但他本人并不认为这场"烧钱潮"会很快结束。目前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、Alphabet和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>均维持着激进的资本支出计划。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>对比鲜明!美国芯片股创“史上最佳季度”,而英伟达“相差甚远”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n对比鲜明!美国芯片股创“史上最佳季度”,而英伟达“相差甚远”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-01 08:44</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国芯片股在2026年上半年创下历史性涨幅,但这场盛宴并非人人共享,AI芯片龙头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>今年以来涨幅仅约7%,在半导体指数成分股中垫底,与整个板块的狂欢形成鲜明反差。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截止周二收盘,<strong>费城半导体指数第二季度大涨88%,创下该指数有史以来最佳单季表现,上半年累计涨幅达101%</strong>,有望创下自1999年互联网泡沫以来最强年度表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下,纳斯达克100指数同期上涨28%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数上涨15%,均远逊于芯片板块。推动这轮行情的核心动力,是市场对AI基础设施需求的强烈押注。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,就在庆功时刻,上周半导体指数单周重挫7.9%,创下2025年4月以来最大单周跌幅,本周一盘中更一度下跌3.2%后反弹收涨3.8%,剧烈震荡令投资者开始重新审视这轮涨势的可持续性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,英伟达的相对落后折射出AI芯片需求正在向更广泛的半导体公司分散,其能否凭借下一代Vera Rubin硬件重夺主导地位,成为市场关注焦点。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">史上最佳季度:内存芯片领跑,涨幅令大盘望尘莫及</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本轮芯片股行情的最大赢家,集中在内存与存储领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>以857%的年内涨幅位居标普500成分股首位;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>以300%的涨幅紧随其后,市值突破1万亿美元,跻身全球最大美国内存芯片制造商之列。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>以及大幅反弹的英特尔共同构成涨幅榜前五。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2686e7bac9d6e886ca4686433d498853\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"604\" tg-height=\"472\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Thornburg Investment Management投资组合经理Sean Sun表示:"我们看到投资者在追逐半导体行业的瓶颈所在,目前这对内存板块有利,对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>作为代工厂的复苏也有利。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时,韩国内存芯片巨头海力士正寻求在美国市场融资294亿美元,进一步印证了内存赛道的资本吸引力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达掉队:AI芯片需求分散,竞争格局生变</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达是本轮行情中最引人注目的"落后者"。作为全球市值最大的公司和AI芯片的代名词,英伟达今年以来涨幅仅约7%,在费城半导体指数成分股中排名垫底。博通以约7.9%的涨幅同样远落后于板块整体。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/44e9485efd12718647644aa137603d05\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"2236\" tg-height=\"1042\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据分析,英伟达落后的核心原因在于,<strong>AI芯片的庞大支出正被分散至更广泛的半导体公司,竞争已从最初与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>的正面交锋,扩展至定制芯片设计商以及英特尔等CPU专业厂商。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Sean Sun对此解释称:"英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>正在遭遇那些瓶颈,它们不再像以前那样是高弹性品种。我认为它们仍会表现不错,但现在投资者想要的是对最强主题更大的弹性敞口。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场目前的关键问题是:英伟达下一代Vera Rubin硬件能否建立足够显著的性能优势,使其重新成为AI基础设施的首选供应商。然而,据巴伦周刊报道,即便性能表现亮眼,大型科技公司也未必愿意过度依赖单一供应商,尤其是在其资本支出规模正面临股东压力的背景下。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">UBS Global Wealth Management首席投资官Mark Haefele在研报中写道:"超大规模云厂商本月股价下跌,表明股东要求其证明支出合理性的压力正在上升,<strong>我们承认资本支出增速放缓的风险在边际上有所上升。"</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">估值分化:英伟达创近年新低,部分个股严重透支</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管整体板块估值已明显偏高,但内部分化极为显著。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">费城半导体指数目前市盈率约为26倍预期盈利,远高于10年均值19倍,接近2024年创下的30倍近期高点。相比之下,纳斯达克100指数市盈率为23倍,标普500为20倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>板块内部,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">ARM Holdings</a> Plc的12个月远期市盈率超过140倍,英特尔约为100倍,按传统估值标准均属严重透支。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达则处于另一个极端——其远期市盈率仅约18倍,为2018年以来最低,远低于其10年均值36倍。美光的远期市盈率约为8倍,部分华尔街人士将这一低估值解读为营收和利润已触顶的预警信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Bloomberg Intelligence数据显示,<strong>分析师对芯片股前景日趋乐观,预计2027年行业盈利将增长49%,高于4月时预期的35%;营收增速预期也从29%上调至37%,均大幅领先标普500整体预期(盈利增长17%,营收增长7.4%)。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">波动加剧:散户涌入与对冲基金撤退并存</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高涨幅背后,芯片股的波动性同样创下历史纪录。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博报道,追踪半导体ETF未来波动率的Cboe半导体ETF波动率指数今年以来已上涨83%,若年末维持这一涨幅,将创下该指数有史以来最大年度涨幅,目前已升至2025年4月特朗普关税冲击市场以来的最高水平。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本月以来,费城半导体指数单日涨跌幅超过1%的交易日占绝大多数,期间出现过单日最大涨幅7.9%,也出现过单日跌幅逾10%的极端行情。<strong>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>大宗经纪业务数据,对冲基金正以十年来最快速度抛售科技、媒体和电信类股票,而散户投资者的大量涌入则进一步放大了价格波动。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Cantor Fitzgerald高级董事总经理兼科技分析师CJ Muse表示:"投资者结构的新变化正在加剧波动,与此同时,几乎每周都有新的AI能力白皮书问世。我们将在这种高度波动的市场中持续一段时间。"</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他同时指出,市场当前最大的担忧在于超大规模云厂商能否在2026年之后维持并扩大资本支出,但他本人并不认为这场"烧钱潮"会很快结束。目前,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、Alphabet和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>均维持着激进的资本支出计划。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92a41d20711c9fa4b2aa3cc62ea62948","relate_stocks":{"BK4579":"人工智能","HK0000819398.USD":"BLACKROCK PREMIER SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME FUND A10 (USD)INC","IE000ITXATA3.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (USD) ACC","GB00BDT5M118.USD":"天利环球扩展Alpha基金A 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USD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3775904","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2648593022","content_text":"美国芯片股在2026年上半年创下历史性涨幅,但这场盛宴并非人人共享,AI芯片龙头英伟达今年以来涨幅仅约7%,在半导体指数成分股中垫底,与整个板块的狂欢形成鲜明反差。截止周二收盘,费城半导体指数第二季度大涨88%,创下该指数有史以来最佳单季表现,上半年累计涨幅达101%,有望创下自1999年互联网泡沫以来最强年度表现。相比之下,纳斯达克100指数同期上涨28%,标普500指数上涨15%,均远逊于芯片板块。推动这轮行情的核心动力,是市场对AI基础设施需求的强烈押注。然而,就在庆功时刻,上周半导体指数单周重挫7.9%,创下2025年4月以来最大单周跌幅,本周一盘中更一度下跌3.2%后反弹收涨3.8%,剧烈震荡令投资者开始重新审视这轮涨势的可持续性。与此同时,英伟达的相对落后折射出AI芯片需求正在向更广泛的半导体公司分散,其能否凭借下一代Vera Rubin硬件重夺主导地位,成为市场关注焦点。史上最佳季度:内存芯片领跑,涨幅令大盘望尘莫及本轮芯片股行情的最大赢家,集中在内存与存储领域。闪迪以857%的年内涨幅位居标普500成分股首位;美光以300%的涨幅紧随其后,市值突破1万亿美元,跻身全球最大美国内存芯片制造商之列。西部数据、希捷科技以及大幅反弹的英特尔共同构成涨幅榜前五。Thornburg Investment Management投资组合经理Sean Sun表示:\"我们看到投资者在追逐半导体行业的瓶颈所在,目前这对内存板块有利,对英特尔作为代工厂的复苏也有利。\"与此同时,韩国内存芯片巨头海力士正寻求在美国市场融资294亿美元,进一步印证了内存赛道的资本吸引力。英伟达掉队:AI芯片需求分散,竞争格局生变英伟达是本轮行情中最引人注目的\"落后者\"。作为全球市值最大的公司和AI芯片的代名词,英伟达今年以来涨幅仅约7%,在费城半导体指数成分股中排名垫底。博通以约7.9%的涨幅同样远落后于板块整体。据分析,英伟达落后的核心原因在于,AI芯片的庞大支出正被分散至更广泛的半导体公司,竞争已从最初与AMD的正面交锋,扩展至定制芯片设计商以及英特尔等CPU专业厂商。Sean Sun对此解释称:\"英伟达和博通正在遭遇那些瓶颈,它们不再像以前那样是高弹性品种。我认为它们仍会表现不错,但现在投资者想要的是对最强主题更大的弹性敞口。\"市场目前的关键问题是:英伟达下一代Vera Rubin硬件能否建立足够显著的性能优势,使其重新成为AI基础设施的首选供应商。然而,据巴伦周刊报道,即便性能表现亮眼,大型科技公司也未必愿意过度依赖单一供应商,尤其是在其资本支出规模正面临股东压力的背景下。UBS Global Wealth Management首席投资官Mark Haefele在研报中写道:\"超大规模云厂商本月股价下跌,表明股东要求其证明支出合理性的压力正在上升,我们承认资本支出增速放缓的风险在边际上有所上升。\"估值分化:英伟达创近年新低,部分个股严重透支尽管整体板块估值已明显偏高,但内部分化极为显著。费城半导体指数目前市盈率约为26倍预期盈利,远高于10年均值19倍,接近2024年创下的30倍近期高点。相比之下,纳斯达克100指数市盈率为23倍,标普500为20倍。板块内部,ARM Holdings Plc的12个月远期市盈率超过140倍,英特尔约为100倍,按传统估值标准均属严重透支。英伟达则处于另一个极端——其远期市盈率仅约18倍,为2018年以来最低,远低于其10年均值36倍。美光的远期市盈率约为8倍,部分华尔街人士将这一低估值解读为营收和利润已触顶的预警信号。Bloomberg Intelligence数据显示,分析师对芯片股前景日趋乐观,预计2027年行业盈利将增长49%,高于4月时预期的35%;营收增速预期也从29%上调至37%,均大幅领先标普500整体预期(盈利增长17%,营收增长7.4%)。波动加剧:散户涌入与对冲基金撤退并存高涨幅背后,芯片股的波动性同样创下历史纪录。据彭博报道,追踪半导体ETF未来波动率的Cboe半导体ETF波动率指数今年以来已上涨83%,若年末维持这一涨幅,将创下该指数有史以来最大年度涨幅,目前已升至2025年4月特朗普关税冲击市场以来的最高水平。本月以来,费城半导体指数单日涨跌幅超过1%的交易日占绝大多数,期间出现过单日最大涨幅7.9%,也出现过单日跌幅逾10%的极端行情。据高盛大宗经纪业务数据,对冲基金正以十年来最快速度抛售科技、媒体和电信类股票,而散户投资者的大量涌入则进一步放大了价格波动。Cantor Fitzgerald高级董事总经理兼科技分析师CJ Muse表示:\"投资者结构的新变化正在加剧波动,与此同时,几乎每周都有新的AI能力白皮书问世。我们将在这种高度波动的市场中持续一段时间。\"他同时指出,市场当前最大的担忧在于超大规模云厂商能否在2026年之后维持并扩大资本支出,但他本人并不认为这场\"烧钱潮\"会很快结束。目前,微软、亚马逊、Alphabet和Meta均维持着激进的资本支出计划。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07388":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SOX":1.91,"NVDO":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"NVDA":2.1,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":575505331030672,"gmtCreate":1781518190373,"gmtModify":1781518306928,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"在你们的新闻里,美国不会有一丁点好消息的,美国永远处在崩溃的边缘","listText":"在你们的新闻里,美国不会有一丁点好消息的,美国永远处在崩溃的边缘","text":"在你们的新闻里,美国不会有一丁点好消息的,美国永远处在崩溃的边缘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/575505331030672","repostId":"2643275602","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2643275602","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1781513701,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2643275602?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-15 16:55","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"为何美伊协议对美联储而言未必是鸽派信号?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2643275602","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美伊和平协议消息令美债大涨、降息预期升温,但美国银行泼下冷水:市场的鸽派解读可能大错特错。若协议推动WTI原油在80至90美元区间企稳,通胀温和上行叠加就业风险消退,美联储反而将面临最偏鹰派的政策环境——降息无望,加息才是正解。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊和平协议的消息推动美债大涨、降息预期快速升温,但美国银行提出警示:市场的鸽派解读可能是一厢情愿。若协议促使油价在温和区间企稳,反而可能制造出最偏鹰派的货币政策环境。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受美伊即将达成和平协议的消息刺激,美债大幅上涨,年底前的美联储降息定价跌破一次完整降息。市场逻辑直觉上似乎成立:油价下行→通胀回落→美联储具备降息条件。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,据美银研究报告,协议的影响并非单向。协议不仅会缓解通胀上行风险,<strong>同时也将消除此前市场对经济活动与就业市场遭受滞后性冲击的担忧。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>对美联储而言最偏鹰派的结果,恰恰是油价温和上涨——幅度足以令核心PCE上升数个基点,但又不至于对经济与就业造成实质性威胁。若协议促使WTI原油价格在80至90美元区间企稳,正是这一情景的精确映射。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鸽派幻觉:市场反应与美银的反驳</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银认为,单纯将协议与油价下行、通胀缓解、联储转鸽画等号,<strong>忽视了协议对美联储双重使命——稳定通胀与充分就业——的复合影响,是一种失之简单的解读。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银以WTI原油价格为轴,构建了一套分析美联储双重使命风险的框架。在该框架下,<strong>当油价处于较低水平时,对经济活动和失业率的下行风险占主导;当油价升至80至100美元以上区间时,通胀风险转为核心矛盾,加息预期随之升温。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/346672a06f287098c454cf8201ad781e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"450\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师指出,美伊协议若达成,将同时作用于上述两类风险:<strong>一方面,油价大幅飙升的通胀尾部风险得以化解;另一方面,此前困扰市场的"高油价对经济活动造成滞后性冲击"的担忧也随之消散。两种风险的协同弱化意味着,美联储面临的政策权衡将更趋中性,而非单边偏向宽松。这正是市场鸽派逻辑的盲区所在。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">最鹰派情景:WTI企稳80至90美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银的核心结论是:若美伊协议促使WTI原油在80至90美元区间企稳,这反而可能是对美联储最偏鹰派的政策结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一价格区间,油价向核心PCE的传导足以带来数个基点的通胀上行压力,但又不至于高到引发对经济活动与就业市场的实质性担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换言之,<strong>美联储将面临"通胀温和偏高、经济增长尚稳"的组合环境——既无充足理由降息,甚至不排除加息的可能性</strong>。报告明确指出,在WTI均价长期维持80至100美元区间的情景下,加息是最合理的政策路径。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为何美伊协议对美联储而言未必是鸽派信号?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为何美伊协议对美联储而言未必是鸽派信号?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-15 16:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美伊和平协议的消息推动美债大涨、降息预期快速升温,但美国银行提出警示:市场的鸽派解读可能是一厢情愿。若协议促使油价在温和区间企稳,反而可能制造出最偏鹰派的货币政策环境。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受美伊即将达成和平协议的消息刺激,美债大幅上涨,年底前的美联储降息定价跌破一次完整降息。市场逻辑直觉上似乎成立:油价下行→通胀回落→美联储具备降息条件。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">然而,据美银研究报告,协议的影响并非单向。协议不仅会缓解通胀上行风险,<strong>同时也将消除此前市场对经济活动与就业市场遭受滞后性冲击的担忧。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>对美联储而言最偏鹰派的结果,恰恰是油价温和上涨——幅度足以令核心PCE上升数个基点,但又不至于对经济与就业造成实质性威胁。若协议促使WTI原油价格在80至90美元区间企稳,正是这一情景的精确映射。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">鸽派幻觉:市场反应与美银的反驳</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银认为,单纯将协议与油价下行、通胀缓解、联储转鸽画等号,<strong>忽视了协议对美联储双重使命——稳定通胀与充分就业——的复合影响,是一种失之简单的解读。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银以WTI原油价格为轴,构建了一套分析美联储双重使命风险的框架。在该框架下,<strong>当油价处于较低水平时,对经济活动和失业率的下行风险占主导;当油价升至80至100美元以上区间时,通胀风险转为核心矛盾,加息预期随之升温。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/346672a06f287098c454cf8201ad781e\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"450\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师指出,美伊协议若达成,将同时作用于上述两类风险:<strong>一方面,油价大幅飙升的通胀尾部风险得以化解;另一方面,此前困扰市场的"高油价对经济活动造成滞后性冲击"的担忧也随之消散。两种风险的协同弱化意味着,美联储面临的政策权衡将更趋中性,而非单边偏向宽松。这正是市场鸽派逻辑的盲区所在。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">最鹰派情景:WTI企稳80至90美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美银的核心结论是:若美伊协议促使WTI原油在80至90美元区间企稳,这反而可能是对美联储最偏鹰派的政策结果。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在这一价格区间,油价向核心PCE的传导足以带来数个基点的通胀上行压力,但又不至于高到引发对经济活动与就业市场的实质性担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换言之,<strong>美联储将面临"通胀温和偏高、经济增长尚稳"的组合环境——既无充足理由降息,甚至不排除加息的可能性</strong>。报告明确指出,在WTI均价长期维持80至100美元区间的情景下,加息是最合理的政策路径。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{"GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","HK0000934320.USD":"GF USD MONEY MARKET FUND CLASS C (USD) ACCUMULATION","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","VXX":"短期VIX期货ETN","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","UVIX":"2倍做多恐慌指数期货ETF","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","ZROZ":"PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","DBND":"DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","SVIX":"1倍做空短期期货恐慌指数ETF","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","TYO":"3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion","GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea",".DJI":"道琼斯","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill 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ETF","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3774677","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2643275602","content_text":"美伊和平协议的消息推动美债大涨、降息预期快速升温,但美国银行提出警示:市场的鸽派解读可能是一厢情愿。若协议促使油价在温和区间企稳,反而可能制造出最偏鹰派的货币政策环境。受美伊即将达成和平协议的消息刺激,美债大幅上涨,年底前的美联储降息定价跌破一次完整降息。市场逻辑直觉上似乎成立:油价下行→通胀回落→美联储具备降息条件。然而,据美银研究报告,协议的影响并非单向。协议不仅会缓解通胀上行风险,同时也将消除此前市场对经济活动与就业市场遭受滞后性冲击的担忧。对美联储而言最偏鹰派的结果,恰恰是油价温和上涨——幅度足以令核心PCE上升数个基点,但又不至于对经济与就业造成实质性威胁。若协议促使WTI原油价格在80至90美元区间企稳,正是这一情景的精确映射。鸽派幻觉:市场反应与美银的反驳美银认为,单纯将协议与油价下行、通胀缓解、联储转鸽画等号,忽视了协议对美联储双重使命——稳定通胀与充分就业——的复合影响,是一种失之简单的解读。美银以WTI原油价格为轴,构建了一套分析美联储双重使命风险的框架。在该框架下,当油价处于较低水平时,对经济活动和失业率的下行风险占主导;当油价升至80至100美元以上区间时,通胀风险转为核心矛盾,加息预期随之升温。分析师指出,美伊协议若达成,将同时作用于上述两类风险:一方面,油价大幅飙升的通胀尾部风险得以化解;另一方面,此前困扰市场的\"高油价对经济活动造成滞后性冲击\"的担忧也随之消散。两种风险的协同弱化意味着,美联储面临的政策权衡将更趋中性,而非单边偏向宽松。这正是市场鸽派逻辑的盲区所在。最鹰派情景:WTI企稳80至90美元美银的核心结论是:若美伊协议促使WTI原油在80至90美元区间企稳,这反而可能是对美联储最偏鹰派的政策结果。在这一价格区间,油价向核心PCE的传导足以带来数个基点的通胀上行压力,但又不至于高到引发对经济活动与就业市场的实质性担忧。换言之,美联储将面临\"通胀温和偏高、经济增长尚稳\"的组合环境——既无充足理由降息,甚至不排除加息的可能性。报告明确指出,在WTI均价长期维持80至100美元区间的情景下,加息是最合理的政策路径。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SVXY":0.6,"UVIX":0.6,"US2Y.BOND":1.5,"US30Y.BOND":1.5,"JPST":1.5,".IXIC":2,"YMmain":2,"MINT":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"EDV":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"TLH":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"TQQQ":2,"BOND":1.5,"MUB":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"VIXY":2,"TLTW":1.5,"UVXY":0.6,"VCIT":1.5,"BSV":1.5,".DJI":2,"USHY":1.5,"ESmain":2,"VGIT":1.5,"TYO":1.5,"UBT":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,".SPX":2,"VGSH":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"US5Y.BOND":1.5,"IEF":1.5,"GBIL":1.5,"NGHT":1.5,"NQmain":2,"SCHO":1.5,"US10Y.BOND":1.5,"US3Y.BOND":1.5,"VIXmain":2,"VXX":2,"IEI":1.5,"VIX":2,"SHY":1.5,"SQQQ":2,"FAZ":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"ZROZ":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"SVIX":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"QQQ":2,"HYG":1.5,"LQD":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573755592640384,"gmtCreate":1781106710745,"gmtModify":1781107477947,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧回应,天天口嗨,浑身上下就嘴还是硬的","listText":"赶紧回应,天天口嗨,浑身上下就嘴还是硬的","text":"赶紧回应,天天口嗨,浑身上下就嘴还是硬的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573755592640384","repostId":"1126329590","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126329590","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1781104413,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126329590?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-10 23:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗武装部队发言人:将对美国威胁作出强力回应","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126329590","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月10日,美股半导体板块跌幅持续扩大,$超微电脑(SMCI)$跌近18%,$安森美半导体(ON)$跌超6%,$博通(AVGO)$、$高通(QCOM)$跌超5%,$台积电(TSM)$、$AMD(AMD)$、$迈威尔科技(MRVL)$跌超3%,$英伟达(NVDA)$跌超2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月10日,美股冲高回落,持续下挫,道琼斯指数跌1.13%,标普500指数跌1.05%,纳斯达克综合指数跌1.33%。据伊朗法尔斯通讯社10日报道,伊朗武装部队发言人阿布法兹勒·谢卡尔希当天就美国总统特朗普打击伊朗基础设施的言论表示,伊朗将对每一个来自美国的威胁作出“比以往更严厉、更强力、更具毁灭性”的回应。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1163d61948af2a7158f200b8d8e2a7ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>美股半导体板块盘中跌幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>跌近18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>跌超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔科技</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>跌超2%;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26007c642d9658ac3d59f6b5a00af37d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗武装部队发言人:将对美国威胁作出强力回应</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗武装部队发言人:将对美国威胁作出强力回应\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-06-10 23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月10日,美股冲高回落,持续下挫,道琼斯指数跌1.13%,标普500指数跌1.05%,纳斯达克综合指数跌1.33%。据伊朗法尔斯通讯社10日报道,伊朗武装部队发言人阿布法兹勒·谢卡尔希当天就美国总统特朗普打击伊朗基础设施的言论表示,伊朗将对每一个来自美国的威胁作出“比以往更严厉、更强力、更具毁灭性”的回应。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1163d61948af2a7158f200b8d8e2a7ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>美股半导体板块盘中跌幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微电脑</a>跌近18%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>跌超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔科技</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>跌超2%;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26007c642d9658ac3d59f6b5a00af37d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"159582":"半导体","SMH":"半导体指数ETF-HOLDRs","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","SMCL":"2倍做多SMCI ETF-Graniteshares","BK4543":"AI","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","SMCI":"超微电脑","LU1861214812.USD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 USD","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","IE00BZ199S13.USD":"BNY MELLON MOBILITY INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SOXY":"YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option Income ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LU1861219969.SGD":"Blackrock Future of Transport A2 SGD-H","FTXL":"First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X 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15:16","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"伊朗称若战争重启将更加猛烈回应,并阻止地区石油出口","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159917239","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"回应将更加猛烈,且将动用新战术。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当地时间26日,伊朗武装部队总参谋部发言人谢卡尔希表示,伊朗已为战争做好准备,若美国和以色列发动新的攻击,伊方的回应将更加猛烈,且将动用新战术。他表示,若战争重启且伊朗出口遭禁,伊方将阻止地区石油外运。(央视新闻)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前,伊朗最高领袖表示,区域国家将不再为美国军事基地提供防护,美国在该地区也将不再拥有避风港。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">国际油价短线拉升,跌幅收窄。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f599d45efaee9904bae69b35241bf0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1266\" tg-height=\"501\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗称若战争重启将更加猛烈回应,并阻止地区石油出口</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗称若战争重启将更加猛烈回应,并阻止地区石油出口\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-26 15:16</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">当地时间26日,伊朗武装部队总参谋部发言人谢卡尔希表示,伊朗已为战争做好准备,若美国和以色列发动新的攻击,伊方的回应将更加猛烈,且将动用新战术。他表示,若战争重启且伊朗出口遭禁,伊方将阻止地区石油外运。(央视新闻)</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此前,伊朗最高领袖表示,区域国家将不再为美国军事基地提供防护,美国在该地区也将不再拥有避风港。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">国际油价短线拉升,跌幅收窄。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23f599d45efaee9904bae69b35241bf0\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1266\" tg-height=\"501\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7aec10468a19ca153d88f05dd7d5e10a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159917239","content_text":"当地时间26日,伊朗武装部队总参谋部发言人谢卡尔希表示,伊朗已为战争做好准备,若美国和以色列发动新的攻击,伊方的回应将更加猛烈,且将动用新战术。他表示,若战争重启且伊朗出口遭禁,伊方将阻止地区石油外运。(央视新闻)此前,伊朗最高领袖表示,区域国家将不再为美国军事基地提供防护,美国在该地区也将不再拥有避风港。国际油价短线拉升,跌幅收窄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":568347357773976,"gmtCreate":1779777967934,"gmtModify":1779779877077,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"怎么能发这种新闻?美股药丸啊,太高了都是泡沫[开心] ","listText":"怎么能发这种新闻?美股药丸啊,太高了都是泡沫[开心] ","text":"怎么能发这种新闻?美股药丸啊,太高了都是泡沫[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/568347357773976","repostId":"1199619549","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199619549","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1779776444,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199619549?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-26 14:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“黑马”发力:标普500盈利增速创近五年新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199619549","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"而标普500指数中的其他493家公司,合计盈利增长率为17.4%,为2021年第四季度以来的最高水平。整体来看,标普500指数第一季度盈利同比增长28.4%。长期以来,这七家大型科技公司一直是标普500盈利增长的主要驱动力,但近期指数中的其他公司也开始发力。尽管七巨头中的四家仍是第一季度标普500盈利增长的前五大贡献者,但第五大贡献者是存储芯片制造商美光科技,其对指数盈利的影响力正在上升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>根据FactSet周四发布的一份报告,“科技七巨头”(Magnificent Seven)——英伟达、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms、苹果和特斯拉——第一季度合计实现了63.2%的每股收益增长,创下自2021年第二季度以来的最大增幅。而标普500指数中的其他493家公司,合计盈利增长率为17.4%,为2021年第四季度以来的最高水平。整体来看,标普500指数第一季度盈利同比增长28.4%(综合已公布及预估数据)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b4d882a72b741335a2d1f2f6ef37d7f2\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">长期以来,这七家大型科技公司一直是标普500盈利增长的主要驱动力,但近期指数中的其他公司也开始发力。这些涨幅来自一些不如科技股受关注的领域——例如材料行业,受益于化肥和锂等需求的激增。非必需消费品板块的贡献不仅来自亚马逊,还包括福特汽车等公司,后者因获得大额关税退税而利润大增。FactSet追踪的11个行业板块中有10个实现盈利增长,多数为两位数增幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/79d6e470816852b85a71b0814e473a70\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">尽管七巨头中的四家(英伟达、Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta)仍是第一季度标普500盈利增长的前五大贡献者,但第五大贡献者是存储芯片制造商美光科技,其对指数盈利的影响力正在上升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/beb24361f3accf3faac6300905d285a0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">然而,在盈利超预期的同时,市场也暗藏隐忧。英伟达上周给出了乐观的前景展望,但这似乎不足以让投资者满意——对于一家市值超5万亿美元的公司,华尔街几乎不容许任何差错。分析师不时表达对英伟达潜在竞争、科技巨头AI雄心的高昂成本以及需求前景的担忧,因为AI基础设施建设已是数万亿美元级别的工程。这场技术竞赛已导致存储芯片供应紧张,可能推高电子产品等成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">部分分析师指出,2026年第一季度覆盖了伊朗冲突爆发前的两个月,整体消费支出背景相对宽松。但上周美国几家大型零售商的业绩和指引让投资者变得谨慎。家得宝表示消费者状况尚可,但仍不愿投入更大、更昂贵的家装项目。化妆品公司e.l.f. Beauty在需求下滑迹象出现后计划下调部分产品价格。塔吉特称其转型正在见效,但投资者质疑反弹能持续多久。沃尔玛则表示,虽然高收入消费者仍在消费,但顾客为了省钱正减少加油量。沃尔玛CFO John David Rainey在财报电话会上说:“这显示出压力。我认为如果燃油价格维持在当前水平,可能会对平均零售单价产生上行压力。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d246603216786b8ea3a33acbfe105bc1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Logan Capital Management董事总经理兼投资组合经理Sarah Henry对MarketWatch表示,沃尔玛关于消费者成本的言论比前几个季度更为尖锐。不过她也指出,Ralph Lauren和Williams-Sonoma的乐观情绪值得关注,他们的季度业绩显示至少富裕消费者仍在购物。Henry说,零售商业绩“表明K形复苏变得更加尖锐和明显”——即富裕消费者继续支出,而其他人群则缩减开支。她还指出,零售商业绩是在食品价格较疫情前上涨30%的背景下取得的,而较高的利率则抑制了通常需要融资的大件商品购买。即便如此,公司财报并未变得更糟,她表示:“总体而言,这个财报季的强劲表现是令人瞩目的。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“黑马”发力:标普500盈利增速创近五年新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“黑马”发力:标普500盈利增速创近五年新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-26 14:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>根据FactSet周四发布的一份报告,“科技七巨头”(Magnificent Seven)——英伟达、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms、苹果和特斯拉——第一季度合计实现了63.2%的每股收益增长,创下自2021年第二季度以来的最大增幅。而标普500指数中的其他493家公司,合计盈利增长率为17.4%,为2021年第四季度以来的最高水平。整体来看,标普500指数第一季度盈利同比增长28.4%(综合已公布及预估数据)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b4d882a72b741335a2d1f2f6ef37d7f2\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">长期以来,这七家大型科技公司一直是标普500盈利增长的主要驱动力,但近期指数中的其他公司也开始发力。这些涨幅来自一些不如科技股受关注的领域——例如材料行业,受益于化肥和锂等需求的激增。非必需消费品板块的贡献不仅来自亚马逊,还包括福特汽车等公司,后者因获得大额关税退税而利润大增。FactSet追踪的11个行业板块中有10个实现盈利增长,多数为两位数增幅。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/79d6e470816852b85a71b0814e473a70\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">尽管七巨头中的四家(英伟达、Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta)仍是第一季度标普500盈利增长的前五大贡献者,但第五大贡献者是存储芯片制造商美光科技,其对指数盈利的影响力正在上升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/beb24361f3accf3faac6300905d285a0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">然而,在盈利超预期的同时,市场也暗藏隐忧。英伟达上周给出了乐观的前景展望,但这似乎不足以让投资者满意——对于一家市值超5万亿美元的公司,华尔街几乎不容许任何差错。分析师不时表达对英伟达潜在竞争、科技巨头AI雄心的高昂成本以及需求前景的担忧,因为AI基础设施建设已是数万亿美元级别的工程。这场技术竞赛已导致存储芯片供应紧张,可能推高电子产品等成本。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">部分分析师指出,2026年第一季度覆盖了伊朗冲突爆发前的两个月,整体消费支出背景相对宽松。但上周美国几家大型零售商的业绩和指引让投资者变得谨慎。家得宝表示消费者状况尚可,但仍不愿投入更大、更昂贵的家装项目。化妆品公司e.l.f. Beauty在需求下滑迹象出现后计划下调部分产品价格。塔吉特称其转型正在见效,但投资者质疑反弹能持续多久。沃尔玛则表示,虽然高收入消费者仍在消费,但顾客为了省钱正减少加油量。沃尔玛CFO John David Rainey在财报电话会上说:“这显示出压力。我认为如果燃油价格维持在当前水平,可能会对平均零售单价产生上行压力。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d246603216786b8ea3a33acbfe105bc1\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">Logan Capital Management董事总经理兼投资组合经理Sarah Henry对MarketWatch表示,沃尔玛关于消费者成本的言论比前几个季度更为尖锐。不过她也指出,Ralph Lauren和Williams-Sonoma的乐观情绪值得关注,他们的季度业绩显示至少富裕消费者仍在购物。Henry说,零售商业绩“表明K形复苏变得更加尖锐和明显”——即富裕消费者继续支出,而其他人群则缩减开支。她还指出,零售商业绩是在食品价格较疫情前上涨30%的背景下取得的,而较高的利率则抑制了通常需要融资的大件商品购买。即便如此,公司财报并未变得更糟,她表示:“总体而言,这个财报季的强劲表现是令人瞩目的。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"AAPU":"2倍做多AAPL ETF-Direxion","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","APLY":"AAPL期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AAPW":"AAPL周配息ETF-Roundhill","NVDX":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-T-Rex","AAPX":"2倍做多Apple ETF-T-Rex","AAPL":"苹果","NVDY":"NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","AAPY":"AAPL收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","FBL":"2倍做多META ETF-GraniteShares","NVII":"Rex NVDA Growth & Income ETF","MUU":"2倍做多MU ETF-Direxion","TSLZ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-T-Rex","TSLY":"TSLA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSLW":"TSLA周配息ETF-Roundhill","TSLT":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-T-Rex","METD":"1倍做空META ETF-Direxion","TSLS":"1倍做空TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLQ":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-Tradr","METU":"2倍做多META ETF-Direxion","MSFU":"2倍做多MSFT ETF-Direxion","FBY":"META期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSLP":"TSLA收益溢价策略ETF-Kurv","FBYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST META ETF","GOOG":"谷歌","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","METW":"Roundhill META WeeklyPay™ ETF","MSFO":"MSFT期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST NVDA ETF","GOOGL":"谷歌A","TSLI":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-ProShares","AMZD":"1倍做空AMZN ETF-Direxion","MSFY":"Kurv Yield Premium Strategy Microsoft (MSFT) ETF","F":"福特汽车","TSLG":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","TSL":"1.25倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","AMZN":"亚马逊","AMZP":"KURV YIELD PREMIUM STRATEGY AMAZON (AMZN) ETF","TSII":"REX TSLA Growth & Income ETF","07366":"XI二南特斯","AMZU":"2倍做多AMZN ETF-Direxion","AMZW":"Roundhill AMZN WeeklyPay™ ETF","07388":"XI二南英伟","CRSH":"做空TSLA 期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","MSFW":"Roundhill MSFT WeeklyPay ETF","TSYY":"收益增强TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","AMZY":"AMZN期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDO":"2倍上限加速NVDA ETF-Leverage Shares","AZYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST AMZN ETF","MSFX":"2倍做多MSFT ETF-T-Rex","TSLA":"特斯拉","AMZZ":"2倍做多AMZN ETF-GraniteShares","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","TSLO":"2倍上限加速TSLA ETF-Leverage Shares","WMTI":"REX WMT Growth & Income ETF","NVDA":"英伟达","TESL":"Simplify Volt TSLA Revolution ETF","MSFL":"2倍做多MSFT ETF-GraniteShares","FRDD":"1倍做空F ETF-Direxion","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","TSDD":"2倍做空TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TEST":"YieldMax TSLA Performance & Distribution Target 25 ETF","FRDU":"2倍做多F ETF-Direxion","09766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉-U","07766":"南方两倍做多特斯拉","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","GOOP":"KURV YIELD PREMIUM STRATEGY GOOGLE (GOOGL) ETF","WMT":"沃尔玛","GOOW":"Roundhill GOOGL WeeklyPay ETF","GOOX":"2倍做多GOOG ETF-T-REX","GOOY":"GOOGL期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","NVD":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDB":"ProShares Ultra NVDA ETF","GOU":"GraniteShares 2x Long GOOGL Daily ETF","NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","MSFD":"1倍做空MSFT ETF-Direxion","MUD":"1倍做空MU ETF-Direxion","AAPB":"2倍做多AAPL ETF-GraniteShares","GGLL":"2倍做多GOOGL-Direxion","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","MSFT":"微软","AAPD":"1倍做空AAPL ETF-Direxion","GGLS":"1倍做空GOOGL ETF-Direxion","09366":"XI二南特斯-U","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA ETF-T-Rex","NVDS":"1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr","MU":"美光科技","TLA":"GraniteShares Autocallable TSLA ETF","NVDU":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199619549","content_text":"根据FactSet周四发布的一份报告,“科技七巨头”(Magnificent Seven)——英伟达、微软、Alphabet、亚马逊、Meta Platforms、苹果和特斯拉——第一季度合计实现了63.2%的每股收益增长,创下自2021年第二季度以来的最大增幅。而标普500指数中的其他493家公司,合计盈利增长率为17.4%,为2021年第四季度以来的最高水平。整体来看,标普500指数第一季度盈利同比增长28.4%(综合已公布及预估数据)。长期以来,这七家大型科技公司一直是标普500盈利增长的主要驱动力,但近期指数中的其他公司也开始发力。这些涨幅来自一些不如科技股受关注的领域——例如材料行业,受益于化肥和锂等需求的激增。非必需消费品板块的贡献不仅来自亚马逊,还包括福特汽车等公司,后者因获得大额关税退税而利润大增。FactSet追踪的11个行业板块中有10个实现盈利增长,多数为两位数增幅。尽管七巨头中的四家(英伟达、Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta)仍是第一季度标普500盈利增长的前五大贡献者,但第五大贡献者是存储芯片制造商美光科技,其对指数盈利的影响力正在上升。然而,在盈利超预期的同时,市场也暗藏隐忧。英伟达上周给出了乐观的前景展望,但这似乎不足以让投资者满意——对于一家市值超5万亿美元的公司,华尔街几乎不容许任何差错。分析师不时表达对英伟达潜在竞争、科技巨头AI雄心的高昂成本以及需求前景的担忧,因为AI基础设施建设已是数万亿美元级别的工程。这场技术竞赛已导致存储芯片供应紧张,可能推高电子产品等成本。部分分析师指出,2026年第一季度覆盖了伊朗冲突爆发前的两个月,整体消费支出背景相对宽松。但上周美国几家大型零售商的业绩和指引让投资者变得谨慎。家得宝表示消费者状况尚可,但仍不愿投入更大、更昂贵的家装项目。化妆品公司e.l.f. Beauty在需求下滑迹象出现后计划下调部分产品价格。塔吉特称其转型正在见效,但投资者质疑反弹能持续多久。沃尔玛则表示,虽然高收入消费者仍在消费,但顾客为了省钱正减少加油量。沃尔玛CFO John David Rainey在财报电话会上说:“这显示出压力。我认为如果燃油价格维持在当前水平,可能会对平均零售单价产生上行压力。”Logan Capital Management董事总经理兼投资组合经理Sarah Henry对MarketWatch表示,沃尔玛关于消费者成本的言论比前几个季度更为尖锐。不过她也指出,Ralph 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18:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗称美军舰遭导弹攻击,美官员否认美船只被伊导弹击中","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133834930","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/42363fb6b12076e4549d16bb297a59bf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b0435e2c99f0702f964f222396233eb\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"346\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗称美军舰遭导弹攻击,美官员否认美船只被伊导弹击中\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-04 18:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/42363fb6b12076e4549d16bb297a59bf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b0435e2c99f0702f964f222396233eb\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"346\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8deb964fe83a788e7ae02a962af884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133834930","content_text":"据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QMmain":2,"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198529490393670","authorId":"4198529490393670","name":"小猫变身","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4198529490393670","authorIdStr":"4198529490393670"},"content":"只要美军不炸郎子本土,他不敢先动手。","text":"只要美军不炸郎子本土,他不敢先动手。","html":"只要美军不炸郎子本土,他不敢先动手。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558838053398392,"gmtCreate":1777466848140,"gmtModify":1777466850518,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"快点嘛,看看你们还有啥货","listText":"快点嘛,看看你们还有啥货","text":"快点嘛,看看你们还有啥货","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558838053398392","repostId":"1188572454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188572454","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1777466085,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188572454?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-29 20:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗:若美继续扣押伊船只,将采取前所未有的军事行动","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188572454","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"4月29日,美、布两油短线持续拉升!据伊朗媒体Press TV援引一位伊朗高级安全消息人士的话报道称,伊朗已发出警告,若美国继续扣押与伊朗有关的船只,伊朗将采取“前所未有的军事行动”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月29日,美、布两油短线持续拉升!据伊朗媒体Press TV援引一位伊朗高级安全消息人士的话报道称,伊朗已发出警告,若美国继续扣押与伊朗有关的船只,伊朗将采取“前所未有的军事行动”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742e5b5126422b834a940b3bce177cfd\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96fec7b7f1981d88b542411ef2cab685\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"729\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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20:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>4月29日,美、布两油短线持续拉升!据伊朗媒体Press TV援引一位伊朗高级安全消息人士的话报道称,伊朗已发出警告,若美国继续扣押与伊朗有关的船只,伊朗将采取“前所未有的军事行动”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/742e5b5126422b834a940b3bce177cfd\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"720\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96fec7b7f1981d88b542411ef2cab685\" tg-width=\"858\" tg-height=\"729\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8deb964fe83a788e7ae02a962af884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188572454","content_text":"4月29日,美、布两油短线持续拉升!据伊朗媒体Press TV援引一位伊朗高级安全消息人士的话报道称,伊朗已发出警告,若美国继续扣押与伊朗有关的船只,伊朗将采取“前所未有的军事行动”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":558474688954944,"gmtCreate":1777378157336,"gmtModify":1777378160138,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"对对对,美股又要完蛋了[开心] ","listText":"对对对,美股又要完蛋了[开心] ","text":"对对对,美股又要完蛋了[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/558474688954944","repostId":"2630037081","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2630037081","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777377263,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2630037081?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-28 19:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"鲍威尔“告别日”+ Mag7 财报夜,市场拿什么硬扛?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2630037081","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"明天最危险的剧本,是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 里某家指引不够强。 两个叙事同向走弱,当天行情会比任何一件事单独出问题都难看。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>明天最危险的剧本,是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 某家指引不够强。 两个叙事同向走弱,当天行情会比任何一个事件单独出问题难看。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4月29日,将是今年最拥挤的一个交易日。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三件大事挤在了同一天:当地时间上午十点,参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔继任者凯文·沃什提名投票;下午两点,FOMC发表利率声明——这是鲍威尔担任美联储主席的最后一次;盘后,微软、Alphabet、Meta、亚马逊四家公司发布一季度财报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场的预期状态一目了然——CME FedWatch维持利率不变概率接近 100%,纳斯达克上周收在历史新高,本季度82%的财报公司已超预期。三件事,三个乐观预期,独立排队。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">问题在于,这些乐观预期共享同一块地基:如果美联储可以继续"看穿"108 美元的油价,利率路径不变,科技股25倍的forward P/E就可以“持续”。鲍威尔那边的任何鹰派信号,或者 Mag 7 财报里任何一道裂缝,都会引发地动山摇。</p><h2 id=\"id_787012622\">鲍威尔最后一次开腔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔的历史评价核心只有一件事:在通胀最难的几年守住了美联储的政策独立性。卸任的最后一次声明,如果显得像是在为市场或政治妥协,代价将比任何决策错误都高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">偏偏同一天,参议院正在推进他继任者的提名。沃什刚结束国会听证,他说过会"维持独立性",不做特朗普的"传声筒"。两人的立场将在同一天被并排阅读。鲍威尔没有任何空间显得软。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这次是四月会议,没有新点阵图,没有更新的经济预测。<strong>唯一能释放信号的渠道就是声明措辞和发布会回答</strong>,每一句话的权重都比平时高。布伦特原油 108 美元,Fed 三月声明里已经埋下了"中东局势影响仍不确定"——这是为更强硬措辞保留的接口,不是一个定性结论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">发布会上最值得盯的不是"降不降息",而是他怎么定性油价:说"暂时性供给冲击",市场松一口气;说"通胀上行风险持续存在",2年期美债收益率会在五分钟内给出答案。</p><h2 id=\"id_3252739871\">AI 的第一次真正对账</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去两年,Mag 7 集体做了一件事:花了天文数字去建 AI 基础设施,然后用"未来会很大"说服投资者等待。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个逻辑今晚开始接受检验。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊四家的 AI 资本开支加起来已经突破3000亿美元。市场给的时间窗口一直是"等财报,看云收入,看货币化"。现在财报来了——花出去的钱,有多少已经开始变成收入?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当期数字超预期,几乎已经是定价的一部分。<strong>真正移动股价的是前瞻指引,以及电话会上每一句关于未来支出和回报时间线的表述。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1905997121\">哪家公司的电话会最危险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四家同日发布财报,风险分布并不均匀。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软是今晚最先被审视的公司。Azure 增速共识约38%,单纯达到这个数字不够——市场真正想看的是Copilot企业端有没有可量化的收入贡献,那是微软两年AI叙事最终落地的证明。Q2指引若低于36%,是负面信号;超过40%才算真正意外之喜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alphabet 的处境比微软更复杂一点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google Cloud 预期增速 49.6%,市场给了最高的成长期待,但 Gemini 商业化至今没有给出清晰的财务数字。Alphabet 第一次必须用具体收入而非产品演示来回答这个问题。Cloud 收入超预期但 Gemini 货币化信号依然模糊——那个反应可能比想象中冷淡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚马逊 AWS 上季度增速 24%,AI 服务年化收入超 150 亿美元,今晚需要守住这条线。增速跌破 20% 是今晚整个财报季情绪的分水岭之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Meta 是今晚最危险的电话会。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">收入和 EPS 的弹性空间不算大,<strong>真正的悬念是 1350 亿美元的年度资本开支计划。</strong>这个数字每个季度都需要扎克伯格重新解释一次:钱是必要的,回报路径是清晰的,时间线是可信的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">只要语气里出现任何"持续根据市场反馈评估"的表述,都会被解读成松动。过去几个季度,凡是 capex 表述略有迟疑,Meta 盘后反应都很难看。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四家同日发报还带来另一个问题:<strong>如果其中一家不符合预期,市场的情绪会被另外三家对冲,还是那一家的裂缝会被放大成整个 AI 叙事的问题?这种分化情景,没有被充分定价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_409451348\">乐观的预期,建立在同一块地基上</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">明天的信息,按时间顺序落地:下午两点,声明先出,2年期美债是最快的温度计,五分钟内会给出市场的第一判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两点半,鲍威尔发布会开始,这是今天全天信息密度最高的窗口,盯的是"通胀上行风险"还是"暂时性供给冲击",两种定性对应两种完全不同的利率路径预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盘后,微软 Azure Q2 指引最先落地,Meta capex 表述压轴——那是今晚整个财报季信息最集中的时刻,也是最容易出意外的地方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">VIX在18,期权保护极度不足。一旦有任何负面触发,回撤速度会比正常情况快得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>明天最危险的剧本,是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 里某家指引不够强。</strong>两个叙事同向走弱,当天行情会比任何一个事件单独出问题难看——因为两件事都在说同一件事:这个市场的乐观,建立在一块正在变窄的地基上。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>鲍威尔“告别日”+ Mag7 财报夜,市场拿什么硬扛?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n鲍威尔“告别日”+ Mag7 财报夜,市场拿什么硬扛?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-28 19:54</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>明天最危险的剧本,是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 某家指引不够强。 两个叙事同向走弱,当天行情会比任何一个事件单独出问题难看。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">4月29日,将是今年最拥挤的一个交易日。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">三件大事挤在了同一天:当地时间上午十点,参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔继任者凯文·沃什提名投票;下午两点,FOMC发表利率声明——这是鲍威尔担任美联储主席的最后一次;盘后,微软、Alphabet、Meta、亚马逊四家公司发布一季度财报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场的预期状态一目了然——CME FedWatch维持利率不变概率接近 100%,纳斯达克上周收在历史新高,本季度82%的财报公司已超预期。三件事,三个乐观预期,独立排队。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">问题在于,这些乐观预期共享同一块地基:如果美联储可以继续"看穿"108 美元的油价,利率路径不变,科技股25倍的forward P/E就可以“持续”。鲍威尔那边的任何鹰派信号,或者 Mag 7 财报里任何一道裂缝,都会引发地动山摇。</p><h2 id=\"id_787012622\">鲍威尔最后一次开腔</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔的历史评价核心只有一件事:在通胀最难的几年守住了美联储的政策独立性。卸任的最后一次声明,如果显得像是在为市场或政治妥协,代价将比任何决策错误都高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">偏偏同一天,参议院正在推进他继任者的提名。沃什刚结束国会听证,他说过会"维持独立性",不做特朗普的"传声筒"。两人的立场将在同一天被并排阅读。鲍威尔没有任何空间显得软。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这次是四月会议,没有新点阵图,没有更新的经济预测。<strong>唯一能释放信号的渠道就是声明措辞和发布会回答</strong>,每一句话的权重都比平时高。布伦特原油 108 美元,Fed 三月声明里已经埋下了"中东局势影响仍不确定"——这是为更强硬措辞保留的接口,不是一个定性结论。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">发布会上最值得盯的不是"降不降息",而是他怎么定性油价:说"暂时性供给冲击",市场松一口气;说"通胀上行风险持续存在",2年期美债收益率会在五分钟内给出答案。</p><h2 id=\"id_3252739871\">AI 的第一次真正对账</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">过去两年,Mag 7 集体做了一件事:花了天文数字去建 AI 基础设施,然后用"未来会很大"说服投资者等待。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这个逻辑今晚开始接受检验。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊四家的 AI 资本开支加起来已经突破3000亿美元。市场给的时间窗口一直是"等财报,看云收入,看货币化"。现在财报来了——花出去的钱,有多少已经开始变成收入?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当期数字超预期,几乎已经是定价的一部分。<strong>真正移动股价的是前瞻指引,以及电话会上每一句关于未来支出和回报时间线的表述。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1905997121\">哪家公司的电话会最危险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四家同日发布财报,风险分布并不均匀。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">微软是今晚最先被审视的公司。Azure 增速共识约38%,单纯达到这个数字不够——市场真正想看的是Copilot企业端有没有可量化的收入贡献,那是微软两年AI叙事最终落地的证明。Q2指引若低于36%,是负面信号;超过40%才算真正意外之喜。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alphabet 的处境比微软更复杂一点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Google Cloud 预期增速 49.6%,市场给了最高的成长期待,但 Gemini 商业化至今没有给出清晰的财务数字。Alphabet 第一次必须用具体收入而非产品演示来回答这个问题。Cloud 收入超预期但 Gemini 货币化信号依然模糊——那个反应可能比想象中冷淡。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">亚马逊 AWS 上季度增速 24%,AI 服务年化收入超 150 亿美元,今晚需要守住这条线。增速跌破 20% 是今晚整个财报季情绪的分水岭之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Meta 是今晚最危险的电话会。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">收入和 EPS 的弹性空间不算大,<strong>真正的悬念是 1350 亿美元的年度资本开支计划。</strong>这个数字每个季度都需要扎克伯格重新解释一次:钱是必要的,回报路径是清晰的,时间线是可信的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">只要语气里出现任何"持续根据市场反馈评估"的表述,都会被解读成松动。过去几个季度,凡是 capex 表述略有迟疑,Meta 盘后反应都很难看。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">四家同日发报还带来另一个问题:<strong>如果其中一家不符合预期,市场的情绪会被另外三家对冲,还是那一家的裂缝会被放大成整个 AI 叙事的问题?这种分化情景,没有被充分定价。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_409451348\">乐观的预期,建立在同一块地基上</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">明天的信息,按时间顺序落地:下午两点,声明先出,2年期美债是最快的温度计,五分钟内会给出市场的第一判断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">两点半,鲍威尔发布会开始,这是今天全天信息密度最高的窗口,盯的是"通胀上行风险"还是"暂时性供给冲击",两种定性对应两种完全不同的利率路径预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盘后,微软 Azure Q2 指引最先落地,Meta capex 表述压轴——那是今晚整个财报季信息最集中的时刻,也是最容易出意外的地方。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">VIX在18,期权保护极度不足。一旦有任何负面触发,回撤速度会比正常情况快得多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>明天最危险的剧本,是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 里某家指引不够强。</strong>两个叙事同向走弱,当天行情会比任何一个事件单独出问题难看——因为两件事都在说同一件事:这个市场的乐观,建立在一块正在变窄的地基上。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e1353d79c5012de417d98b639e2d0285","relate_stocks":{"SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","GOOGL":"谷歌A","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","AMZN":"亚马逊","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MSFT":"微软","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","META":"Meta Platforms, Inc.","SPYI":"NEOS S&P 500 High Income ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771104","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2630037081","content_text":"明天最危险的剧本,是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 某家指引不够强。 两个叙事同向走弱,当天行情会比任何一个事件单独出问题难看。4月29日,将是今年最拥挤的一个交易日。三件大事挤在了同一天:当地时间上午十点,参议院银行委员会对鲍威尔继任者凯文·沃什提名投票;下午两点,FOMC发表利率声明——这是鲍威尔担任美联储主席的最后一次;盘后,微软、Alphabet、Meta、亚马逊四家公司发布一季度财报。市场的预期状态一目了然——CME FedWatch维持利率不变概率接近 100%,纳斯达克上周收在历史新高,本季度82%的财报公司已超预期。三件事,三个乐观预期,独立排队。问题在于,这些乐观预期共享同一块地基:如果美联储可以继续\"看穿\"108 美元的油价,利率路径不变,科技股25倍的forward P/E就可以“持续”。鲍威尔那边的任何鹰派信号,或者 Mag 7 财报里任何一道裂缝,都会引发地动山摇。鲍威尔最后一次开腔鲍威尔的历史评价核心只有一件事:在通胀最难的几年守住了美联储的政策独立性。卸任的最后一次声明,如果显得像是在为市场或政治妥协,代价将比任何决策错误都高。偏偏同一天,参议院正在推进他继任者的提名。沃什刚结束国会听证,他说过会\"维持独立性\",不做特朗普的\"传声筒\"。两人的立场将在同一天被并排阅读。鲍威尔没有任何空间显得软。这次是四月会议,没有新点阵图,没有更新的经济预测。唯一能释放信号的渠道就是声明措辞和发布会回答,每一句话的权重都比平时高。布伦特原油 108 美元,Fed 三月声明里已经埋下了\"中东局势影响仍不确定\"——这是为更强硬措辞保留的接口,不是一个定性结论。发布会上最值得盯的不是\"降不降息\",而是他怎么定性油价:说\"暂时性供给冲击\",市场松一口气;说\"通胀上行风险持续存在\",2年期美债收益率会在五分钟内给出答案。AI 的第一次真正对账过去两年,Mag 7 集体做了一件事:花了天文数字去建 AI 基础设施,然后用\"未来会很大\"说服投资者等待。这个逻辑今晚开始接受检验。微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊四家的 AI 资本开支加起来已经突破3000亿美元。市场给的时间窗口一直是\"等财报,看云收入,看货币化\"。现在财报来了——花出去的钱,有多少已经开始变成收入?当期数字超预期,几乎已经是定价的一部分。真正移动股价的是前瞻指引,以及电话会上每一句关于未来支出和回报时间线的表述。哪家公司的电话会最危险四家同日发布财报,风险分布并不均匀。微软是今晚最先被审视的公司。Azure 增速共识约38%,单纯达到这个数字不够——市场真正想看的是Copilot企业端有没有可量化的收入贡献,那是微软两年AI叙事最终落地的证明。Q2指引若低于36%,是负面信号;超过40%才算真正意外之喜。Alphabet 的处境比微软更复杂一点。Google Cloud 预期增速 49.6%,市场给了最高的成长期待,但 Gemini 商业化至今没有给出清晰的财务数字。Alphabet 第一次必须用具体收入而非产品演示来回答这个问题。Cloud 收入超预期但 Gemini 货币化信号依然模糊——那个反应可能比想象中冷淡。亚马逊 AWS 上季度增速 24%,AI 服务年化收入超 150 亿美元,今晚需要守住这条线。增速跌破 20% 是今晚整个财报季情绪的分水岭之一。Meta 是今晚最危险的电话会。收入和 EPS 的弹性空间不算大,真正的悬念是 1350 亿美元的年度资本开支计划。这个数字每个季度都需要扎克伯格重新解释一次:钱是必要的,回报路径是清晰的,时间线是可信的。只要语气里出现任何\"持续根据市场反馈评估\"的表述,都会被解读成松动。过去几个季度,凡是 capex 表述略有迟疑,Meta 盘后反应都很难看。四家同日发报还带来另一个问题:如果其中一家不符合预期,市场的情绪会被另外三家对冲,还是那一家的裂缝会被放大成整个 AI 叙事的问题?这种分化情景,没有被充分定价。乐观的预期,建立在同一块地基上明天的信息,按时间顺序落地:下午两点,声明先出,2年期美债是最快的温度计,五分钟内会给出市场的第一判断。两点半,鲍威尔发布会开始,这是今天全天信息密度最高的窗口,盯的是\"通胀上行风险\"还是\"暂时性供给冲击\",两种定性对应两种完全不同的利率路径预期。盘后,微软 Azure Q2 指引最先落地,Meta capex 表述压轴——那是今晚整个财报季信息最集中的时刻,也是最容易出意外的地方。VIX在18,期权保护极度不足。一旦有任何负面触发,回撤速度会比正常情况快得多。明天最危险的剧本,是鲍威尔措辞偏鹰叠上 Mag 7 里某家指引不够强。两个叙事同向走弱,当天行情会比任何一个事件单独出问题难看——因为两件事都在说同一件事:这个市场的乐观,建立在一块正在变窄的地基上。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MESmain":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"META":1.89,"UPRO":0.6,"MSFT":1.91,"SPYI":0.6,"SH":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"GOOGL":1.87,"SPXU":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"AMZN":1.86,"SPYQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549263194211448,"gmtCreate":1775119297322,"gmtModify":1775119299525,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"伊朗人民的敌人就是你们自己","listText":"伊朗人民的敌人就是你们自己","text":"伊朗人民的敌人就是你们自己","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549263194211448","repostId":"1159916026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159916026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1775113785,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159916026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-02 15:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗最高领袖顾问:霍尔木兹海峡对伊朗人民的敌人将永远关闭","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159916026","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"冲突的结束取决于伊朗的决策和力量。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间4月2日,伊朗最高领袖外事顾问、前外长韦拉亚提在其个人社交媒体平台账号上表示,霍尔木兹海峡对世界开放,但对伊朗人民的敌人及其在该地区的据点将永远关闭。</p><p>韦拉亚提表示,冲突的结束取决于伊朗的决策和力量,而不是侵略者的妄想和傲慢。(央视新闻)</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗最高领袖顾问:霍尔木兹海峡对伊朗人民的敌人将永远关闭</title>\n<style 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15:09</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>当地时间4月2日,伊朗最高领袖外事顾问、前外长韦拉亚提在其个人社交媒体平台账号上表示,霍尔木兹海峡对世界开放,但对伊朗人民的敌人及其在该地区的据点将永远关闭。</p><p>韦拉亚提表示,冲突的结束取决于伊朗的决策和力量,而不是侵略者的妄想和傲慢。(央视新闻)</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a051916f4c8098f20479e50d9bb8848d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159916026","content_text":"当地时间4月2日,伊朗最高领袖外事顾问、前外长韦拉亚提在其个人社交媒体平台账号上表示,霍尔木兹海峡对世界开放,但对伊朗人民的敌人及其在该地区的据点将永远关闭。韦拉亚提表示,冲突的结束取决于伊朗的决策和力量,而不是侵略者的妄想和傲慢。(央视新闻)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"GCmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1122,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543546792211328,"gmtCreate":1773727350971,"gmtModify":1773727353485,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"马上全绿了","listText":"马上全绿了","text":"马上全绿了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543546792211328","repostId":"1178611581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178611581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1773723225,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178611581?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-17 12:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股期权 | 三大指数齐涨,期权半日成交近44万张;腾讯、小米、美团交投活跃","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178611581","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月17日,港股三大指数齐涨,恒生指数涨0.98%,恒生科技指数涨1.34%,国企指数涨0.93%。股票期权成交量港股期权半日成交近44万张。$MIU.HK 20260320 35.00 PUT$ $美团-W$涨近4%,期权方面:半日成交超4.2万张合约,其中于3月30日到期行权价95港元的认购期权成交量居前,成交超3900张合约。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月17日,港股三大指数齐涨,恒生指数涨0.98%,恒生科技指数涨1.34%,国企指数涨0.93%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4365d18eb0057080b1659dd115a78a78\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_519485299\">股票期权成交量</h2><p>港股期权半日成交近44万张。其中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>成交量居前,期权成交近5.8万张;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>名列次席,期权成交超4.9万张;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>位居第三,期权成交超4.2万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e293fcd28b8df2cc8ec1ffacadca74d6\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1778\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1988316681\">异动观察</h2><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>涨超2%,期权方面:半日成交超4.9万张合约,其中于3月20日到期行权价35港元的认沽期权成交量居前,成交超2700张合约。</strong> <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MIU.HK 20260320 35.00 PUT\" data-mention-name=\"小米 260320 35.00 PUT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MIU.HK%2020260320%2035.00%20PUT\">$MIU.HK 20260320 35.00 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07ee5e4452a9a402e711e6f84687aac7\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1996\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>涨近4%,期权方面:半日成交超4.2万张合约,其中于3月30日到期行权价95港元的认购期权成交量居前,成交超3900张合约。</strong> <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MET.HK 20260330 95.00 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"美团 260330 95.00 CALL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MET.HK%2020260330%2095.00%20CALL\">$MET.HK 20260330 95.00 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2fbd456db07fb4e74c19588350b43aa\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1988\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a>涨超2%,期权方面:半日成交超3.6万张合约,其中于3月30日到期行权价150港元的认购期权成交量居前,成交超1900张合约。</strong> <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"ALB.HK 20260330 150.00 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"阿里 260330 150.00 CALL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ALB.HK%2020260330%20150.00%20CALL\">$ALB.HK 20260330 150.00 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980e068aab16b3a93c98b691d34dc5cf\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1994\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>港股期权 | 三大指数齐涨,期权半日成交近44万张;腾讯、小米、美团交投活跃</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股期权 | 三大指数齐涨,期权半日成交近44万张;腾讯、小米、美团交投活跃\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-17 12:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月17日,港股三大指数齐涨,恒生指数涨0.98%,恒生科技指数涨1.34%,国企指数涨0.93%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4365d18eb0057080b1659dd115a78a78\" tg-width=\"920\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_519485299\">股票期权成交量</h2><p>港股期权半日成交近44万张。其中,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>成交量居前,期权成交近5.8万张;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>名列次席,期权成交超4.9万张;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>位居第三,期权成交超4.2万张。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e293fcd28b8df2cc8ec1ffacadca74d6\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1778\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1988316681\">异动观察</h2><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>涨超2%,期权方面:半日成交超4.9万张合约,其中于3月20日到期行权价35港元的认沽期权成交量居前,成交超2700张合约。</strong> <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MIU.HK 20260320 35.00 PUT\" data-mention-name=\"小米 260320 35.00 PUT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MIU.HK%2020260320%2035.00%20PUT\">$MIU.HK 20260320 35.00 PUT$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07ee5e4452a9a402e711e6f84687aac7\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1996\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>涨近4%,期权方面:半日成交超4.2万张合约,其中于3月30日到期行权价95港元的认购期权成交量居前,成交超3900张合约。</strong> <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"MET.HK 20260330 95.00 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"美团 260330 95.00 CALL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MET.HK%2020260330%2095.00%20CALL\">$MET.HK 20260330 95.00 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2fbd456db07fb4e74c19588350b43aa\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1988\"/></p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-W</a>涨超2%,期权方面:半日成交超3.6万张合约,其中于3月30日到期行权价150港元的认购期权成交量居前,成交超1900张合约。</strong> <a class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-id=\"ALB.HK 20260330 150.00 CALL\" data-mention-name=\"阿里 260330 150.00 CALL\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ALB.HK%2020260330%20150.00%20CALL\">$ALB.HK 20260330 150.00 CALL$</a> </p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/980e068aab16b3a93c98b691d34dc5cf\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"1994\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd680cd945fd32917c8ece66ec685e5f","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","09988":"阿里巴巴-W","01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178611581","content_text":"3月17日,港股三大指数齐涨,恒生指数涨0.98%,恒生科技指数涨1.34%,国企指数涨0.93%。股票期权成交量港股期权半日成交近44万张。其中,腾讯控股成交量居前,期权成交近5.8万张;小米集团-W名列次席,期权成交超4.9万张;美团-W位居第三,期权成交超4.2万张。异动观察小米集团-W涨超2%,期权方面:半日成交超4.9万张合约,其中于3月20日到期行权价35港元的认沽期权成交量居前,成交超2700张合约。 $MIU.HK 20260320 35.00 PUT$ 美团-W涨近4%,期权方面:半日成交超4.2万张合约,其中于3月30日到期行权价95港元的认购期权成交量居前,成交超3900张合约。 $MET.HK 20260330 95.00 CALL$ 阿里巴巴-W涨超2%,期权方面:半日成交超3.6万张合约,其中于3月30日到期行权价150港元的认购期权成交量居前,成交超1900张合约。 $ALB.HK 20260330 150.00 CALL$","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":2,"03690":2,"01810":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539085662082400,"gmtCreate":1772633599609,"gmtModify":1772633601933,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"完了,高盛反买......","listText":"完了,高盛反买......","text":"完了,高盛反买......","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539085662082400","repostId":"2616553671","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2616553671","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1772631003,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2616553671?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-04 21:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛力挺美股:别怕战争与AI冲击!每次回调都是买入良机","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2616553671","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,根据高盛策略师的观点,投资者应将美国股市的任何回调视为买入机会,而非熊市开始的信号。随后中东爆发战争,市场再度承压。摩根士丹利和渣打银行近日同样重申了对美国股市的看涨立场。渣打银行分析师也指出,美股能抵御中东局势升级带来的冲击,投资者可在出现5%-10%的回调时选择逢低买入。布莱斯在承认不确定性上升的同时指出,股市可能下跌5%至10%,届时将出现买入机会。美国上周六打击伊朗后,原油价格应声飙升。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月4日,<strong>根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>策略师的观点,投资者应将美国股市的任何回调视为买入机会,而非熊市开始的信号。</strong>由彼得·奥本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)领导的高盛策略师团队在一份报告中写道,尽管风险资产面临来自中东战争以及对人工智能(AI)颠覆性影响的担忧所带来的“重大逆风”,但经济基本面的韧性以及强劲的盈利增长意味着,回调的深度和持续时间将是有限的。</p><p>奥本海默表示:“鉴于当前估值水平,我们认为市场存在较高的回调风险,但预计这将带来一个买入机会,同时出现更持久、更深度熊市的风险相对较低。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bc92a066467a7eb0fcbb0771db35a3\" alt=\"标普500指数的交易水平高于长期均值\" title=\"标普500指数的交易水平高于长期均值\" tg-width=\"656\" tg-height=\"441\"/><span>标普500指数的交易水平高于长期均值</span></p><p>全球股市今年开局动荡。最初,由于市场对AI对商业模式颠覆性影响的恐慌,引发包括软件在内的多个板块抛售。随后中东爆发战争,市场再度承压。</p><p>即便如此,高盛策略师指出,从指数层面来看,直到最近市场整体仍保持相对稳定,但板块和个股之间的快速轮动与波动性加剧成为主要特征。策略师补充称,全球范围内股票回报在不同地区和投资因子之间的扩散,已导致估值高于平均水平,所有全球行业相对于其过去20年历史均处于昂贵区间。再加上由美国主导的异常强劲牛市,使得股市更容易受到潜在冲击的影响,例如伊朗战争对石油和天然气市场构成的威胁。</p><p>奥本海默指出:“这种不确定性持续时间越长、或者对能源供应造成的影响越严重,市场对增长和通胀的感知风险就会越高。”不过,他也补充称:“近年来的大多数地缘政治冲击,并未对市场产生长期影响。”</p><h2 id=\"id_251805127\">多家大行不改美股看涨立场</h2><p>尽管中东地区局势升级引发美国股市波动,但BTIG首席市场技术分析师乔纳森·克林斯基(Jonathan Krinsky)将此视为投资者的入场良机。克林斯基引用了一句老话——“乱弹纷飞日,建仓恰逢时。”(When missiles fly,time to buy)。他在给客户的报告中写道,“通常地缘政治引发的剧烈波动并不持久”,并补充称,市场的混乱走势“更可能是一个战术性的买入机会,而非在当前水平上卖出”。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>和渣打银行近日同样重申了对美国股市的看涨立场。由迈克尔·威尔逊(Mike Wilson)领衔的大摩股票策略师团队在一份报告中写道,从历史上看,地缘政治风险事件并未导致美股持续性的波动,并援引了此类事件发生后数月内标普500指数的平均表现作为依据。策略师表示,就最新的伊朗冲突而言,看空情景主要来自油价大幅且持续上涨,这可能会破坏他们所认为正在增强的商业周期。</p><p>他们指出:“除非油价以具有历史意义的幅度飙升并维持在高位,否则近期事件不太可能改变我们未来6至12个月对美股的看涨观点。”据悉,该策略师团队在今年1月发布的研报中将标普500指数在2026年年末的目标点位设定为7800点,并称“多重协同驱动因素”正在促成美股市场的滚动式周期复苏。该行将2026年界定为“滚动复苏下的广谱股票市场牛市”,主张“由点及面”的市场风险偏好回归与多个周期性的行业共振上行,即周期股领衔第二阶段牛市。</p><p>渣打银行分析师也指出,美股能抵御中东局势升级带来的冲击,投资者可在出现5%-10%的回调时选择逢低买入。该行分析师史蒂夫·布莱斯(Steve Brice)表示,市场正相对良好地消化来自中东紧张局势这一前所未有的地缘政治冲击,核心投资逻辑依然是在出现明显回调时逢低买入。布莱斯在承认不确定性上升的同时指出,股市可能下跌5%至10%,届时将出现买入机会。</p><p>这位分析师强调,市场是在基本面强劲的背景下进入这一恐慌时期的。他表示:“我们实际上处于一种‘<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600143\">金发</a>姑娘经济’环境中。经济增长表现异常稳健,美国通胀确实在下降,尽管速度相对缓慢。我们预计美联储将降息,企业盈利也保持稳固。”</p><p>尽管如此,若油价维持在高位,可能会逐步侵蚀这一有利的经济环境。布莱斯表示,投资者目前正专注于评估不同情景下的潜在回撤幅度,“我认为这正是市场正在努力弄清的问题——在基准情景和尾部风险情景下,股市可能出现多大回撤,以及应当如何据此进行投资布局”。</p><p>布莱斯在密切关注事态发展的同时,仍维持其偏好风险资产的立场。他将当前环境形容为“总体上可能是短暂的阶段,尽管这与我们此前经历的任何情况都非常不同”。他同时承认,如果形势进一步恶化,需要保持灵活并愿意调整投资仓位。这位分析师还强调,此次局势与以往中东军事干预存在关键差异。他指出:“以往中东地区的军事行动通常是地面部队介入,并且能够相对迅速地控制局势。这次情况非常不同,目前中东地区发生报复行动的风险明显升高。”</p><h2 id=\"id_2516829585\">德银泼冷水:小心抄到半山腰</h2><p>然而,德银对面对此次中东战事时采取“逢低买入”策略发出警告,称投资者应当心“抄底到半山腰”。该行认为,本周的关键问题在于,石油和天然气价格是否会飙升至阻碍经济增长的程度,从而破坏复苏交易。</p><p>德银策略师亨利·艾伦(Henry Allen)在周二发给客户的报告中写道:“我们之前曾写道,地缘政治事件通常不会引起持续的市场反应。但例外情况是,当地缘政治事件拥有影响市场的宏观渠道时。伊朗的事态正是这样一个典型例子。”</p><p>美国上周六打击伊朗后,原油价格应声飙升。在伊朗扬言要封锁霍尔木兹<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>后,市场对未来供应的担忧急剧升温——该海峡是全球20%石油和液化天然气运输的生命线。不过,艾伦指出,目前WTI原油价格仍低于2024年的平均水平,且涨幅并未达到俄乌冲突爆发时或两次海湾战争期间的危机水平。</p><p>这位策略师表示,如果油价出现更大规模的飙升,必须具备特定因素,才会导致标普500指数暴跌超过15%。艾伦认为,以下三个条件中至少需要满足一个,但目前这些条件都尚未出现:油价飙升至少50%至100%并持续数月;油价上涨将本已降温的经济推入衰退或严重放缓;央行针对油价上涨采取鹰派政策应对。他表示:“未来几天的关键问题将是,这些条件中是否有一项被触发。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛力挺美股:别怕战争与AI冲击!每次回调都是买入良机</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛力挺美股:别怕战争与AI冲击!每次回调都是买入良机\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-04 21:30 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410174.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月4日,根据高盛策略师的观点,投资者应将美国股市的任何回调视为买入机会,而非熊市开始的信号。由彼得·奥本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)领导的高盛策略师团队在一份报告中写道,尽管风险资产面临来自中东战争以及对人工智能(AI)颠覆性影响的担忧所带来的“重大逆风”,但经济基本面的韧性以及强劲的盈利增长意味着,回调的深度和持续时间将是有限的。奥本海默表示:“鉴于当前估值水平,我们认为市场存在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410174.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" 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OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1410174.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2616553671","content_text":"3月4日,根据高盛策略师的观点,投资者应将美国股市的任何回调视为买入机会,而非熊市开始的信号。由彼得·奥本海默(Peter Oppenheimer)领导的高盛策略师团队在一份报告中写道,尽管风险资产面临来自中东战争以及对人工智能(AI)颠覆性影响的担忧所带来的“重大逆风”,但经济基本面的韧性以及强劲的盈利增长意味着,回调的深度和持续时间将是有限的。奥本海默表示:“鉴于当前估值水平,我们认为市场存在较高的回调风险,但预计这将带来一个买入机会,同时出现更持久、更深度熊市的风险相对较低。”标普500指数的交易水平高于长期均值全球股市今年开局动荡。最初,由于市场对AI对商业模式颠覆性影响的恐慌,引发包括软件在内的多个板块抛售。随后中东爆发战争,市场再度承压。即便如此,高盛策略师指出,从指数层面来看,直到最近市场整体仍保持相对稳定,但板块和个股之间的快速轮动与波动性加剧成为主要特征。策略师补充称,全球范围内股票回报在不同地区和投资因子之间的扩散,已导致估值高于平均水平,所有全球行业相对于其过去20年历史均处于昂贵区间。再加上由美国主导的异常强劲牛市,使得股市更容易受到潜在冲击的影响,例如伊朗战争对石油和天然气市场构成的威胁。奥本海默指出:“这种不确定性持续时间越长、或者对能源供应造成的影响越严重,市场对增长和通胀的感知风险就会越高。”不过,他也补充称:“近年来的大多数地缘政治冲击,并未对市场产生长期影响。”多家大行不改美股看涨立场尽管中东地区局势升级引发美国股市波动,但BTIG首席市场技术分析师乔纳森·克林斯基(Jonathan Krinsky)将此视为投资者的入场良机。克林斯基引用了一句老话——“乱弹纷飞日,建仓恰逢时。”(When missiles fly,time to buy)。他在给客户的报告中写道,“通常地缘政治引发的剧烈波动并不持久”,并补充称,市场的混乱走势“更可能是一个战术性的买入机会,而非在当前水平上卖出”。摩根士丹利和渣打银行近日同样重申了对美国股市的看涨立场。由迈克尔·威尔逊(Mike Wilson)领衔的大摩股票策略师团队在一份报告中写道,从历史上看,地缘政治风险事件并未导致美股持续性的波动,并援引了此类事件发生后数月内标普500指数的平均表现作为依据。策略师表示,就最新的伊朗冲突而言,看空情景主要来自油价大幅且持续上涨,这可能会破坏他们所认为正在增强的商业周期。他们指出:“除非油价以具有历史意义的幅度飙升并维持在高位,否则近期事件不太可能改变我们未来6至12个月对美股的看涨观点。”据悉,该策略师团队在今年1月发布的研报中将标普500指数在2026年年末的目标点位设定为7800点,并称“多重协同驱动因素”正在促成美股市场的滚动式周期复苏。该行将2026年界定为“滚动复苏下的广谱股票市场牛市”,主张“由点及面”的市场风险偏好回归与多个周期性的行业共振上行,即周期股领衔第二阶段牛市。渣打银行分析师也指出,美股能抵御中东局势升级带来的冲击,投资者可在出现5%-10%的回调时选择逢低买入。该行分析师史蒂夫·布莱斯(Steve Brice)表示,市场正相对良好地消化来自中东紧张局势这一前所未有的地缘政治冲击,核心投资逻辑依然是在出现明显回调时逢低买入。布莱斯在承认不确定性上升的同时指出,股市可能下跌5%至10%,届时将出现买入机会。这位分析师强调,市场是在基本面强劲的背景下进入这一恐慌时期的。他表示:“我们实际上处于一种‘金发姑娘经济’环境中。经济增长表现异常稳健,美国通胀确实在下降,尽管速度相对缓慢。我们预计美联储将降息,企业盈利也保持稳固。”尽管如此,若油价维持在高位,可能会逐步侵蚀这一有利的经济环境。布莱斯表示,投资者目前正专注于评估不同情景下的潜在回撤幅度,“我认为这正是市场正在努力弄清的问题——在基准情景和尾部风险情景下,股市可能出现多大回撤,以及应当如何据此进行投资布局”。布莱斯在密切关注事态发展的同时,仍维持其偏好风险资产的立场。他将当前环境形容为“总体上可能是短暂的阶段,尽管这与我们此前经历的任何情况都非常不同”。他同时承认,如果形势进一步恶化,需要保持灵活并愿意调整投资仓位。这位分析师还强调,此次局势与以往中东军事干预存在关键差异。他指出:“以往中东地区的军事行动通常是地面部队介入,并且能够相对迅速地控制局势。这次情况非常不同,目前中东地区发生报复行动的风险明显升高。”德银泼冷水:小心抄到半山腰然而,德银对面对此次中东战事时采取“逢低买入”策略发出警告,称投资者应当心“抄底到半山腰”。该行认为,本周的关键问题在于,石油和天然气价格是否会飙升至阻碍经济增长的程度,从而破坏复苏交易。德银策略师亨利·艾伦(Henry Allen)在周二发给客户的报告中写道:“我们之前曾写道,地缘政治事件通常不会引起持续的市场反应。但例外情况是,当地缘政治事件拥有影响市场的宏观渠道时。伊朗的事态正是这样一个典型例子。”美国上周六打击伊朗后,原油价格应声飙升。在伊朗扬言要封锁霍尔木兹海峡后,市场对未来供应的担忧急剧升温——该海峡是全球20%石油和液化天然气运输的生命线。不过,艾伦指出,目前WTI原油价格仍低于2024年的平均水平,且涨幅并未达到俄乌冲突爆发时或两次海湾战争期间的危机水平。这位策略师表示,如果油价出现更大规模的飙升,必须具备特定因素,才会导致标普500指数暴跌超过15%。艾伦认为,以下三个条件中至少需要满足一个,但目前这些条件都尚未出现:油价飙升至少50%至100%并持续数月;油价上涨将本已降温的经济推入衰退或严重放缓;央行针对油价上涨采取鹰派政策应对。他表示:“未来几天的关键问题将是,这些条件中是否有一项被触发。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MNQ2612":2,".IXIC":2,"YMmain":2,"MNQ2603":2,".DJI":2,"NDX":2,"MNQmain":2,"ESmain":2,".SPX":2,"NQmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534899312588120,"gmtCreate":1771611650299,"gmtModify":1771611653021,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"既然是这样的话,那就把国内那几支标普500和纳指100的场外基金全部开放吧,别再限制外汇和额度了,反正大A是牛市,反正大家都不买美股,自信一点,是吧?","listText":"既然是这样的话,那就把国内那几支标普500和纳指100的场外基金全部开放吧,别再限制外汇和额度了,反正大A是牛市,反正大家都不买美股,自信一点,是吧?","text":"既然是这样的话,那就把国内那几支标普500和纳指100的场外基金全部开放吧,别再限制外汇和额度了,反正大A是牛市,反正大家都不买美股,自信一点,是吧?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534899312588120","repostId":"2612926091","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2612926091","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1771597084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2612926091?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-20 22:18","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“美国例外论”正在退潮?美股吸引力降至五年多低点 大幅跑输海外市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2612926091","media":"智通财经网","summary":"美国股市相对于全球其他主要市场的吸引力,正跌至五年多来的低点。Hartnett指出,这一资金流向变化表明,市场长期热议的“美国例外论”,即美国资产持续跑赢全球,正在走向尾声。从市场表现来看,美国股市今年明显落后于海外市场。2026年以来,标普500指数几乎持平,而剔除美国的MSCI世界指数同期涨幅接近8%。Hartnett此前还指出,美国的贸易政策正在塑造一个“新的世界秩序”,并可能重塑全球资本配置格局。","content":"<html><body><p>美国股市相对于全球其他主要市场的吸引力,正跌至五年多来的低点。</p><p>智通财经APP获悉,据美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett表示,今年以来,流入全球股票型基金的资金中,每100美元仅有26美元配置至美股,这是自2020年以来的最低占比,也显著低于2022年高达92美元的峰值水平。</p><p>Hartnett指出,这一资金流向变化表明,市场长期热议的“美国例外论”,即美国资产持续跑赢全球,正在走向尾声。不过,与其说资金正在大规模撤离美国资产,不如说是相对配置意愿明显下降。</p><p>从市场表现来看,美国股市今年明显落后于海外市场。2026年以来,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数几乎持平,而剔除美国的MSCI世界指数同期涨幅接近8%。投资者对美股兴趣降温,主要源于多重担忧,包括大型科技公司在人工智能领域投入过度、特朗普政府政策推动下美元走弱,以及在全球经济增长预期改善背景下,资金更偏好周期性股票。</p><p>资金流向数据也印证了这一趋势。美国银行援引EPFR Global的数据称,今年以来,欧洲、日本及其他发达国际市场股票基金合计吸引约1250亿美元资金流入,而美股相关基金仅录得约350亿美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20260220/1771597194155736.png\" title=\"1771597194155736.png\"/></p><p>Hartnett此前还指出,美国的贸易政策正在塑造一个“新的世界秩序”,并可能重塑全球资本配置格局。自2024年末以来,他始终维持对国际股票市场的偏好立场,认为在当前宏观和政策环境下,海外市场的相对吸引力正在上升。</p><p>更多港股重磅资讯,下载智通财经app</p><p>更多港股及海外理财资讯,请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com(搜索“智通财经”);欲加入智通港股投资群,请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)</p> </body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“美国例外论”正在退潮?美股吸引力降至五年多低点 大幅跑输海外市场</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1406130.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","IWO":"罗素2000成长股指数ETF","RWM":"罗素2000指数反向ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SRTY":"罗素2000指数三倍做空ETF-ProShares","TWM":"罗素2000指数两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","TZA":"罗素2000指数三倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","UWM":"罗素2000指数ETF两倍做多","IWN":"罗素2000价值股指数ETF-iShares","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","TNA":"罗素2000指数三倍做多ETF-Direxion","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1406130.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2612926091","content_text":"美国股市相对于全球其他主要市场的吸引力,正跌至五年多来的低点。智通财经APP获悉,据美国银行首席投资策略师Michael Hartnett表示,今年以来,流入全球股票型基金的资金中,每100美元仅有26美元配置至美股,这是自2020年以来的最低占比,也显著低于2022年高达92美元的峰值水平。Hartnett指出,这一资金流向变化表明,市场长期热议的“美国例外论”,即美国资产持续跑赢全球,正在走向尾声。不过,与其说资金正在大规模撤离美国资产,不如说是相对配置意愿明显下降。从市场表现来看,美国股市今年明显落后于海外市场。2026年以来,标普500指数几乎持平,而剔除美国的MSCI世界指数同期涨幅接近8%。投资者对美股兴趣降温,主要源于多重担忧,包括大型科技公司在人工智能领域投入过度、特朗普政府政策推动下美元走弱,以及在全球经济增长预期改善背景下,资金更偏好周期性股票。资金流向数据也印证了这一趋势。美国银行援引EPFR Global的数据称,今年以来,欧洲、日本及其他发达国际市场股票基金合计吸引约1250亿美元资金流入,而美股相关基金仅录得约350亿美元。Hartnett此前还指出,美国的贸易政策正在塑造一个“新的世界秩序”,并可能重塑全球资本配置格局。自2024年末以来,他始终维持对国际股票市场的偏好立场,认为在当前宏观和政策环境下,海外市场的相对吸引力正在上升。更多港股重磅资讯,下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯,请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com(搜索“智通财经”);欲加入智通港股投资群,请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MNQmain":0.6,"RWM":0.6,"TNA":0.6,".SPX":1.86,"UWM":0.6,"IWO":0.6,"SRTY":0.6,"TWM":0.6,"IWN":0.6,"SPY":1.86,"TZA":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":510745543205016,"gmtCreate":1765706683040,"gmtModify":1765757584374,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"你们是不是当美股和缅A一样,一天到晚大盘不涨,一天到晚轮动割韭菜?","listText":"你们是不是当美股和缅A一样,一天到晚大盘不涨,一天到晚轮动割韭菜?","text":"你们是不是当美股和缅A一样,一天到晚大盘不涨,一天到晚轮动割韭菜?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/510745543205016","repostId":"2591027657","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2591027657","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1765699264,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2591027657?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-14 16:01","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"华尔街的“2026美股主题”是轮动!“老登”胜过Mag 7,高盛高呼“周期股尚未被完全定价”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2591027657","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"华尔街多家大行策略师正建议客户在2026年将投资重心从“科技七巨头”转向医疗、工业、能源和金融等传统周期性板块。高盛认为,这一转变主要基于两点:一是对科技巨头能否持续支撑其高昂估值和AI支出的疑虑加深;二是对2026年美国整体经济前景的乐观情绪升温。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>华尔街多家大行策略师正建议客户在2026年将投资重心从“科技七巨头”转向医疗、工业、能源和金融等传统周期性板块。高盛认为,这一转变主要基于两点:一是对科技巨头能否持续支撑其高昂估值和AI支出的疑虑加深;二是对2026年美国整体经济前景的乐观情绪升温。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着2026年的临近,华尔街正在形成一个日益清晰的共识:过去数年引领牛市的科技巨头可能将让出舞台中央,市场轮动将成为新一年的投资主旋律。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博社报道,包括美国银行和摩根士丹利在内的多家华尔街大行策略师正建议客户,在2026年的投资组合中,应更多关注医疗保健、工业和能源等传统板块,而非英伟达和亚马逊等“科技七巨头”。这一转变的背后,是对科技股高昂估值和巨额AI投资回报的日益增长的怀疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场情绪的变化已有迹可循。近期,甲骨文和博通等AI风向标公司的财报未能满足市场的极高期望,加剧了投资者的担忧。与此同时,<strong>资金流向显示,投资者正从科技巨头转向估值较低的周期股、小盘股和经济敏感型板块。</strong>自11月20日市场触及短期低点以来,罗素2000小盘股指数上涨了11%,而“科技七巨头”指数的涨幅仅为其一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛集团在12月12日发布的最新报告中为这一轮动趋势提供了更深层次的注解。该行策略师指出,尽管近期周期股已大幅反弹,但市场尚未完全消化2026年美国可能出现的经济前景。<strong>高盛预测明年美国GDP增速将达2.5%,高于2.0%的市场共识,并认为这意味着周期性板块仍有上行空间</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_3437049844\" style=\"text-align: left;\">告别科技股?估值与增长疑虑浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多年来,投资大型科技公司似乎是毋庸置疑的选择。然而,在经历了过去三年约300%的惊人涨幅后,市场开始质疑这一板块能否继续证明其高昂的估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Piper Sandler & Co.的首席市场技术分析师Craig Johnson表示:“我听到人们正在从‘科技七巨头’交易中撤出资金,并投向市场的其他领域。他们不再只是追逐微软和亚马逊了,而是正在拓宽这个交易。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博社报道,<strong>资深策略师、Yardeni Research的创始人Ed Yardeni本周也建议投资者相对于标普500指数的其余部分减持大型科技股,这是他自2010年以来首次改变对信息技术和通信服务板块的增持立场。</strong>这一系列观点转变,反映出华尔街对科技股未来增长路径的审慎态度。</p><h2 id=\"id_1737044708\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“大轮动”已在进行时</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场并未等待策略师们的号召,资金轮动已悄然发生。数据显示,自11月20日以来,不仅罗素2000指数表现出色,更能反映市场广度的标普500等权重指数同期的表现也优于其市值加权指数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategas Asset Management LLC主席Jason De Sena Trennert认为,2026年将出现一场向今年表现落后的金融和非必需消费品等板块的“大轮动”。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Michael Wilson也持有类似观点,他预测市场广度将扩大。Wilson表示:“我们认为大型科技股仍能表现不错,但将落后于新的领涨领域,尤其是消费品以及中小型股。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在上周五的报告中称,<strong>市场正在提前布局2026年的“火热运行”(run-it-hot)策略,资金正从“华尔街的巨头”轮动至代表“主街”的中小盘股和微型盘股。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2914303833\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛:经济前景尚未被市场完全定价</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛的报告为看多周期股提供了坚实的宏观基础。由Ben Snider领导的策略团队在12月12日的《美国每周启动》(US WEEKLY KICKSTART)报告中明确指出,“2026年的周期性加速仍未被完全定价”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告的核心论点是,尽管近期周期股相对于防御股的表现在14个连续交易日中创下纪录,但市场对经济增长的定价仍偏保守,大致与经济学家2.0%的增长共识一致。而高盛经济学家的预测则更为乐观,认为在金融状况放松和《大漂亮法案》“One Big Beautiful Bill Act”法案等财政政策的推动下,2026年美国实际GDP平均增长率将达到2.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为,这种预期差为周期性资产提供了机会。内部板块轮动和跨资产模式均表明,市场的定价尚未充分反映出高盛所预期的经济活力。</p><h2 id=\"id_414663588\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机会何在?高盛看好非住宅建筑板块</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在经济加速的背景下,哪些板块的潜力最大?高盛的报告特别指出了非住宅建筑相关股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告分析称,在过去两年中,由于盈利疲软,这类股票表现一直不佳。自2024年中期以来,美国非住宅建筑活动同比增长一直为负。然而,展望2026年,情况有望改善。财政法案中包含的投资激励措施,以及道奇动量指数(Dodge Momentum Index)和美联储调查等前瞻性指标的回升,都预示着一个更友好的环境。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从更广泛的基本面来看,轮动也具备数据支持。据高盛数据,剔除七巨头后的“标普493”成分股的盈利增长预计将从今年的7%加速到2026年的9%,而七巨头对标普500指数盈利的贡献将从50%降至46%。FBB Capital Partners研究总监Michael Bailey表示,如果就业和通胀数据保持现状,且美联储仍在放松政策,明年“标普493”可能会出现看涨行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观,但风险同样不容忽视。<strong>高盛报告强调,周期股面临的关键风险是经济增长令人失望。</strong>对于非住宅建筑相关公司而言,建筑活动进一步下滑将是主要威胁。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一个主要风险来自利率的急剧上升。报告指出,历史表明,当10年期美国国债收益率在一个月内上升超过两个标准差(目前约等于50个基点)时,股市通常会面临抛售压力。这意味着,如果10年期国债收益率短期内跳升至4.5%以上,投资者应保持警惕。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n华尔街的“2026美股主题”是轮动!“老登”胜过Mag 7,高盛高呼“周期股尚未被完全定价”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-14 16:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>华尔街多家大行策略师正建议客户在2026年将投资重心从“科技七巨头”转向医疗、工业、能源和金融等传统周期性板块。高盛认为,这一转变主要基于两点:一是对科技巨头能否持续支撑其高昂估值和AI支出的疑虑加深;二是对2026年美国整体经济前景的乐观情绪升温。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着2026年的临近,华尔街正在形成一个日益清晰的共识:过去数年引领牛市的科技巨头可能将让出舞台中央,市场轮动将成为新一年的投资主旋律。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博社报道,包括美国银行和摩根士丹利在内的多家华尔街大行策略师正建议客户,在2026年的投资组合中,应更多关注医疗保健、工业和能源等传统板块,而非英伟达和亚马逊等“科技七巨头”。这一转变的背后,是对科技股高昂估值和巨额AI投资回报的日益增长的怀疑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场情绪的变化已有迹可循。近期,甲骨文和博通等AI风向标公司的财报未能满足市场的极高期望,加剧了投资者的担忧。与此同时,<strong>资金流向显示,投资者正从科技巨头转向估值较低的周期股、小盘股和经济敏感型板块。</strong>自11月20日市场触及短期低点以来,罗素2000小盘股指数上涨了11%,而“科技七巨头”指数的涨幅仅为其一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛集团在12月12日发布的最新报告中为这一轮动趋势提供了更深层次的注解。该行策略师指出,尽管近期周期股已大幅反弹,但市场尚未完全消化2026年美国可能出现的经济前景。<strong>高盛预测明年美国GDP增速将达2.5%,高于2.0%的市场共识,并认为这意味着周期性板块仍有上行空间</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_3437049844\" style=\"text-align: left;\">告别科技股?估值与增长疑虑浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">多年来,投资大型科技公司似乎是毋庸置疑的选择。然而,在经历了过去三年约300%的惊人涨幅后,市场开始质疑这一板块能否继续证明其高昂的估值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Piper Sandler & Co.的首席市场技术分析师Craig Johnson表示:“我听到人们正在从‘科技七巨头’交易中撤出资金,并投向市场的其他领域。他们不再只是追逐微软和亚马逊了,而是正在拓宽这个交易。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据彭博社报道,<strong>资深策略师、Yardeni Research的创始人Ed Yardeni本周也建议投资者相对于标普500指数的其余部分减持大型科技股,这是他自2010年以来首次改变对信息技术和通信服务板块的增持立场。</strong>这一系列观点转变,反映出华尔街对科技股未来增长路径的审慎态度。</p><h2 id=\"id_1737044708\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“大轮动”已在进行时</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">市场并未等待策略师们的号召,资金轮动已悄然发生。数据显示,自11月20日以来,不仅罗素2000指数表现出色,更能反映市场广度的标普500等权重指数同期的表现也优于其市值加权指数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Strategas Asset Management LLC主席Jason De Sena Trennert认为,2026年将出现一场向今年表现落后的金融和非必需消费品等板块的“大轮动”。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Michael Wilson也持有类似观点,他预测市场广度将扩大。Wilson表示:“我们认为大型科技股仍能表现不错,但将落后于新的领涨领域,尤其是消费品以及中小型股。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在上周五的报告中称,<strong>市场正在提前布局2026年的“火热运行”(run-it-hot)策略,资金正从“华尔街的巨头”轮动至代表“主街”的中小盘股和微型盘股。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2914303833\" style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛:经济前景尚未被市场完全定价</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛的报告为看多周期股提供了坚实的宏观基础。由Ben Snider领导的策略团队在12月12日的《美国每周启动》(US WEEKLY KICKSTART)报告中明确指出,“2026年的周期性加速仍未被完全定价”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告的核心论点是,尽管近期周期股相对于防御股的表现在14个连续交易日中创下纪录,但市场对经济增长的定价仍偏保守,大致与经济学家2.0%的增长共识一致。而高盛经济学家的预测则更为乐观,认为在金融状况放松和《大漂亮法案》“One Big Beautiful Bill Act”法案等财政政策的推动下,2026年美国实际GDP平均增长率将达到2.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为,这种预期差为周期性资产提供了机会。内部板块轮动和跨资产模式均表明,市场的定价尚未充分反映出高盛所预期的经济活力。</p><h2 id=\"id_414663588\" style=\"text-align: left;\">机会何在?高盛看好非住宅建筑板块</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在经济加速的背景下,哪些板块的潜力最大?高盛的报告特别指出了非住宅建筑相关股票。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告分析称,在过去两年中,由于盈利疲软,这类股票表现一直不佳。自2024年中期以来,美国非住宅建筑活动同比增长一直为负。然而,展望2026年,情况有望改善。财政法案中包含的投资激励措施,以及道奇动量指数(Dodge Momentum Index)和美联储调查等前瞻性指标的回升,都预示着一个更友好的环境。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从更广泛的基本面来看,轮动也具备数据支持。据高盛数据,剔除七巨头后的“标普493”成分股的盈利增长预计将从今年的7%加速到2026年的9%,而七巨头对标普500指数盈利的贡献将从50%降至46%。FBB Capital Partners研究总监Michael Bailey表示,如果就业和通胀数据保持现状,且美联储仍在放松政策,明年“标普493”可能会出现看涨行情。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管前景乐观,但风险同样不容忽视。<strong>高盛报告强调,周期股面临的关键风险是经济增长令人失望。</strong>对于非住宅建筑相关公司而言,建筑活动进一步下滑将是主要威胁。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另一个主要风险来自利率的急剧上升。报告指出,历史表明,当10年期美国国债收益率在一个月内上升超过两个标准差(目前约等于50个基点)时,股市通常会面临抛售压力。这意味着,如果10年期国债收益率短期内跳升至4.5%以上,投资者应保持警惕。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2265009873.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Growth Equity AS SGD-H","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","NVDA":"英伟达","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3761364","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2591027657","content_text":"华尔街多家大行策略师正建议客户在2026年将投资重心从“科技七巨头”转向医疗、工业、能源和金融等传统周期性板块。高盛认为,这一转变主要基于两点:一是对科技巨头能否持续支撑其高昂估值和AI支出的疑虑加深;二是对2026年美国整体经济前景的乐观情绪升温。随着2026年的临近,华尔街正在形成一个日益清晰的共识:过去数年引领牛市的科技巨头可能将让出舞台中央,市场轮动将成为新一年的投资主旋律。据彭博社报道,包括美国银行和摩根士丹利在内的多家华尔街大行策略师正建议客户,在2026年的投资组合中,应更多关注医疗保健、工业和能源等传统板块,而非英伟达和亚马逊等“科技七巨头”。这一转变的背后,是对科技股高昂估值和巨额AI投资回报的日益增长的怀疑。市场情绪的变化已有迹可循。近期,甲骨文和博通等AI风向标公司的财报未能满足市场的极高期望,加剧了投资者的担忧。与此同时,资金流向显示,投资者正从科技巨头转向估值较低的周期股、小盘股和经济敏感型板块。自11月20日市场触及短期低点以来,罗素2000小盘股指数上涨了11%,而“科技七巨头”指数的涨幅仅为其一半。高盛集团在12月12日发布的最新报告中为这一轮动趋势提供了更深层次的注解。该行策略师指出,尽管近期周期股已大幅反弹,但市场尚未完全消化2026年美国可能出现的经济前景。高盛预测明年美国GDP增速将达2.5%,高于2.0%的市场共识,并认为这意味着周期性板块仍有上行空间。告别科技股?估值与增长疑虑浮现多年来,投资大型科技公司似乎是毋庸置疑的选择。然而,在经历了过去三年约300%的惊人涨幅后,市场开始质疑这一板块能否继续证明其高昂的估值。Piper Sandler & Co.的首席市场技术分析师Craig Johnson表示:“我听到人们正在从‘科技七巨头’交易中撤出资金,并投向市场的其他领域。他们不再只是追逐微软和亚马逊了,而是正在拓宽这个交易。”据彭博社报道,资深策略师、Yardeni Research的创始人Ed Yardeni本周也建议投资者相对于标普500指数的其余部分减持大型科技股,这是他自2010年以来首次改变对信息技术和通信服务板块的增持立场。这一系列观点转变,反映出华尔街对科技股未来增长路径的审慎态度。“大轮动”已在进行时市场并未等待策略师们的号召,资金轮动已悄然发生。数据显示,自11月20日以来,不仅罗素2000指数表现出色,更能反映市场广度的标普500等权重指数同期的表现也优于其市值加权指数。Strategas Asset Management LLC主席Jason De Sena Trennert认为,2026年将出现一场向今年表现落后的金融和非必需消费品等板块的“大轮动”。摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Michael Wilson也持有类似观点,他预测市场广度将扩大。Wilson表示:“我们认为大型科技股仍能表现不错,但将落后于新的领涨领域,尤其是消费品以及中小型股。”美国银行的策略师Michael Hartnett在上周五的报告中称,市场正在提前布局2026年的“火热运行”(run-it-hot)策略,资金正从“华尔街的巨头”轮动至代表“主街”的中小盘股和微型盘股。高盛:经济前景尚未被市场完全定价高盛的报告为看多周期股提供了坚实的宏观基础。由Ben Snider领导的策略团队在12月12日的《美国每周启动》(US WEEKLY KICKSTART)报告中明确指出,“2026年的周期性加速仍未被完全定价”。报告的核心论点是,尽管近期周期股相对于防御股的表现在14个连续交易日中创下纪录,但市场对经济增长的定价仍偏保守,大致与经济学家2.0%的增长共识一致。而高盛经济学家的预测则更为乐观,认为在金融状况放松和《大漂亮法案》“One Big Beautiful Bill Act”法案等财政政策的推动下,2026年美国实际GDP平均增长率将达到2.5%。报告认为,这种预期差为周期性资产提供了机会。内部板块轮动和跨资产模式均表明,市场的定价尚未充分反映出高盛所预期的经济活力。机会何在?高盛看好非住宅建筑板块在经济加速的背景下,哪些板块的潜力最大?高盛的报告特别指出了非住宅建筑相关股票。报告分析称,在过去两年中,由于盈利疲软,这类股票表现一直不佳。自2024年中期以来,美国非住宅建筑活动同比增长一直为负。然而,展望2026年,情况有望改善。财政法案中包含的投资激励措施,以及道奇动量指数(Dodge Momentum Index)和美联储调查等前瞻性指标的回升,都预示着一个更友好的环境。从更广泛的基本面来看,轮动也具备数据支持。据高盛数据,剔除七巨头后的“标普493”成分股的盈利增长预计将从今年的7%加速到2026年的9%,而七巨头对标普500指数盈利的贡献将从50%降至46%。FBB Capital Partners研究总监Michael Bailey表示,如果就业和通胀数据保持现状,且美联储仍在放松政策,明年“标普493”可能会出现看涨行情。尽管前景乐观,但风险同样不容忽视。高盛报告强调,周期股面临的关键风险是经济增长令人失望。对于非住宅建筑相关公司而言,建筑活动进一步下滑将是主要威胁。另一个主要风险来自利率的急剧上升。报告指出,历史表明,当10年期美国国债收益率在一个月内上升超过两个标准差(目前约等于50个基点)时,股市通常会面临抛售压力。这意味着,如果10年期国债收益率短期内跳升至4.5%以上,投资者应保持警惕。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494155049681384,"gmtCreate":1761669394350,"gmtModify":1761669396810,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"诺基亚也是昔日的大佬啊,在今天的大佬面前就是个零头,真是此一时彼一时","listText":"诺基亚也是昔日的大佬啊,在今天的大佬面前就是个零头,真是此一时彼一时","text":"诺基亚也是昔日的大佬啊,在今天的大佬面前就是个零头,真是此一时彼一时","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494155049681384","repostId":"1177809319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177809319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1761665586,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177809319?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-28 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"诺基亚暴涨21%,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177809319","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月28日,据报道,$英伟达(NVDA)$将向$诺基亚(NOK)$进行10亿美元股权投资。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月28日,据报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>将向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>进行10亿美元股权投资,该笔交易将使英伟达持有诺基亚2.9%的股份。</p><p>英伟达将利用自家芯片来加速诺基亚的5G和6G网络软件(开发),并探索在自家人工智能(AI)架构里利用英伟达的数据中心技术。</p><p>诺基亚美国上市股票恢复交易,现涨超21%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cea6a692a57c69a1ccf077061c21637\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"583\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>诺基亚暴涨21%,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n诺基亚暴涨21%,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-28 23:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月28日,据报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>将向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>进行10亿美元股权投资,该笔交易将使英伟达持有诺基亚2.9%的股份。</p><p>英伟达将利用自家芯片来加速诺基亚的5G和6G网络软件(开发),并探索在自家人工智能(AI)架构里利用英伟达的数据中心技术。</p><p>诺基亚美国上市股票恢复交易,现涨超21%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cea6a692a57c69a1ccf077061c21637\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"583\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc0118e35c2c3a2c9e015f33f2d4de8","relate_stocks":{"BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4612":"AI芯片","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4614":"Manus概念股","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4605":"半导体精选","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK5071":"通信设备","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4020":"通信设备","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4529":"IDC概念","NOK":"诺基亚","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4547":"WSB热门概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177809319","content_text":"10月28日,据报道,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资,该笔交易将使英伟达持有诺基亚2.9%的股份。英伟达将利用自家芯片来加速诺基亚的5G和6G网络软件(开发),并探索在自家人工智能(AI)架构里利用英伟达的数据中心技术。诺基亚美国上市股票恢复交易,现涨超21%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NOK":1.1,"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":488969880232760,"gmtCreate":1760404611419,"gmtModify":1760404614105,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"甭管速度多少,要看碰撞情况。车侧面完整,基本没有变型,为什么车门打不开?设计缺陷就是设计缺陷,这也能洗,下次你家人撞成这样看你还洗不洗","listText":"甭管速度多少,要看碰撞情况。车侧面完整,基本没有变型,为什么车门打不开?设计缺陷就是设计缺陷,这也能洗,下次你家人撞成这样看你还洗不洗","text":"甭管速度多少,要看碰撞情况。车侧面完整,基本没有变型,为什么车门打不开?设计缺陷就是设计缺陷,这也能洗,下次你家人撞成这样看你还洗不洗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/488969880232760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3526120239608889","authorId":"3526120239608889","name":"王导__________","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eef0b64a2ece176835adc9e27f33604","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3526120239608889","authorIdStr":"3526120239608889"},"content":"这个速度有些车车门都没形状了,你还指望打开","text":"这个速度有些车车门都没形状了,你还指望打开","html":"这个速度有些车车门都没形状了,你还指望打开"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":481681913520512,"gmtCreate":1758622287081,"gmtModify":1758622868314,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"意味着美股全是泡沫,即将股灾,美国药丸。你们这家媒体一撅屁股我就知道要放什么屁,从20年开始天天都是这种文章,没别的新闻写了吧?","listText":"意味着美股全是泡沫,即将股灾,美国药丸。你们这家媒体一撅屁股我就知道要放什么屁,从20年开始天天都是这种文章,没别的新闻写了吧?","text":"意味着美股全是泡沫,即将股灾,美国药丸。你们这家媒体一撅屁股我就知道要放什么屁,从20年开始天天都是这种文章,没别的新闻写了吧?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481681913520512","repostId":"2569752185","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2569752185","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1758596842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2569752185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-23 11:07","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美股与黄金同创新高,这意味着什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2569752185","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指与费城半导体指数接连刷新高点,市场情绪高涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c17d5d38d0c74628e5d0fbb053bb457\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现货黄金也涨势如虹,一度触及每盎司3748.84美元的历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdb88bf491dd3af50b36603ec274bb7\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"564\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点,这种矛盾且罕见局面让投资者怀疑市场“完美定价”了吗?是否已经充分反映所有利好,未来涨不动了?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息,德意志银行9月22日发布的研报认为,尽管近期风险资产表现出显著的韧性,但市场远未达到“完美定价”的状态,认为“市场几乎没有进一步上涨空间的观点是错误的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行分析师Henry Allen认为,<strong>当前市场远未“完美定价”,反而充斥着对未来风险的担忧,但这也为市场潜在的上涨提供了空间。换句话说,一旦这些被定价的风险未能成为现实,或者情况好于预期,市场反而可能迎来进一步的上行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">比如,黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关税担忧、劳动力市场放缓以及央行降息预期,都反映出<strong>市场已计入大量潜在的下行风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这与许多人将当前市场与“互联网泡沫”时期进行比较的观点形成了鲜明对比——彼时黄金价格处于历史低位,而美联储则在加息以应对强劲的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行详细阐述了市场远未“完美定价”的五大理由:</p><h2 id=\"id_1934954011\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一、黄金新高:恐惧的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行报告的第一个核心论点是,黄金价格处于历史高位,<strong>这是市场恐惧而非极度乐观的典型迹象</strong>。报告强调,黄金作为一种不支付股息或票息的资产,其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告数据显示,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。当时,美国在时任美联储主席Paul Volcker领导的大规模货币紧缩政策下正滑向衰退。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此,从历史上看,高金价往往与经济动荡和不确定性相伴。这与科网泡沫时期形成鲜明对比,当时实际金价徘徊在数十年来的低点,反映出投资者追逐高回报风险资产的极度乐观情绪。</p><h2 id=\"id_2978448662\">二、美国通胀预期高企:与“完美”相去甚远</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美国通胀掉期数据显示,美国2年期通胀互换(inflation swap)利率在上周五收于2.92%,这意味着市场预期未来几年通胀仍将徘徊在美联储的目标之上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着市场定价中隐含了通胀压力,将限制美联储降息的能力,这与一个“完美”的经济图景显然不符。如果通胀能够低于预期,反而可能为固定收益市场带来潜在的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_583569856\"> 三、关税担忧持续存在</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关税问题仍是投资者的一大担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告提到,除了已实施的关税,美国仍在对制药、半导体和关键矿产等行业进行审查,这带来了进一步加征关税的可能性。这些悬而未决的风险,是市场无法忽视的负面因素,并已反映在定价之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,缺乏永久性协议意味着美国关税依然存在突然反弹的风险,正如近期加拿大关税从25%上调至35%的案例。据新华社报道,美国白宫7月31日晚间发布公告称,美国总统特朗普当日已经签署行政令,从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望。</p><h2 id=\"id_1623163879\">四、美国劳动力市场显现担忧:就业增长放缓与衰退信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报强调,美国劳动力市场的担忧迹象明显,特别是就业增长放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前,美国非农就业人数的6个月平均增长已降至6.4万人,创下本轮经济周期以来的新低。失业率升至4.3%,是2021年末以来的最高水平。此外,近期基准修订表明2024-2025年的就业数据可能比此前预期更弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对这种疲软高度关注,8月1日就业报告大幅下修前几个月数据后,美国高收益债券息差当日跳涨23个基点,为4月初关税公告以来的最大单日涨幅。这表明,市场并非简单地将“坏消息视为好消息”,而是切实担忧经济衰退的风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_4184942453\">五、美联储等央行降息预期:并非经济强劲的标志</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者普遍预期主要央行尤其是美联储将进一步降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储期货市场甚至定价到2026年底将有超过100个基点的进一步降息。研报指出,这种降息预期并非经济强劲的信号,而更多地反映了投资者对经济增长可能放缓的担忧,认为降息是刺激经济所必需的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与1990年代末“互联网泡沫”时期形成对比的是,当时强劲的需求促使美联储在1999年进入加息周期,以应对劳动力市场趋紧。而如今,美联储因劳动力市场担忧而降息,十年期实际收益率也持续下降,这与当时的市场环境截然不同。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股与黄金同创新高,这意味着什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-23 11:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指与费城半导体指数接连刷新高点,市场情绪高涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c17d5d38d0c74628e5d0fbb053bb457\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现货黄金也涨势如虹,一度触及每盎司3748.84美元的历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdb88bf491dd3af50b36603ec274bb7\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"564\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点,这种矛盾且罕见局面让投资者怀疑市场“完美定价”了吗?是否已经充分反映所有利好,未来涨不动了?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息,德意志银行9月22日发布的研报认为,尽管近期风险资产表现出显著的韧性,但市场远未达到“完美定价”的状态,认为“市场几乎没有进一步上涨空间的观点是错误的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行分析师Henry Allen认为,<strong>当前市场远未“完美定价”,反而充斥着对未来风险的担忧,但这也为市场潜在的上涨提供了空间。换句话说,一旦这些被定价的风险未能成为现实,或者情况好于预期,市场反而可能迎来进一步的上行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">比如,黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关税担忧、劳动力市场放缓以及央行降息预期,都反映出<strong>市场已计入大量潜在的下行风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这与许多人将当前市场与“互联网泡沫”时期进行比较的观点形成了鲜明对比——彼时黄金价格处于历史低位,而美联储则在加息以应对强劲的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行详细阐述了市场远未“完美定价”的五大理由:</p><h2 id=\"id_1934954011\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一、黄金新高:恐惧的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行报告的第一个核心论点是,黄金价格处于历史高位,<strong>这是市场恐惧而非极度乐观的典型迹象</strong>。报告强调,黄金作为一种不支付股息或票息的资产,其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告数据显示,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。当时,美国在时任美联储主席Paul Volcker领导的大规模货币紧缩政策下正滑向衰退。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此,从历史上看,高金价往往与经济动荡和不确定性相伴。这与科网泡沫时期形成鲜明对比,当时实际金价徘徊在数十年来的低点,反映出投资者追逐高回报风险资产的极度乐观情绪。</p><h2 id=\"id_2978448662\">二、美国通胀预期高企:与“完美”相去甚远</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美国通胀掉期数据显示,美国2年期通胀互换(inflation swap)利率在上周五收于2.92%,这意味着市场预期未来几年通胀仍将徘徊在美联储的目标之上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着市场定价中隐含了通胀压力,将限制美联储降息的能力,这与一个“完美”的经济图景显然不符。如果通胀能够低于预期,反而可能为固定收益市场带来潜在的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_583569856\"> 三、关税担忧持续存在</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关税问题仍是投资者的一大担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告提到,除了已实施的关税,美国仍在对制药、半导体和关键矿产等行业进行审查,这带来了进一步加征关税的可能性。这些悬而未决的风险,是市场无法忽视的负面因素,并已反映在定价之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,缺乏永久性协议意味着美国关税依然存在突然反弹的风险,正如近期加拿大关税从25%上调至35%的案例。据新华社报道,美国白宫7月31日晚间发布公告称,美国总统特朗普当日已经签署行政令,从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望。</p><h2 id=\"id_1623163879\">四、美国劳动力市场显现担忧:就业增长放缓与衰退信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报强调,美国劳动力市场的担忧迹象明显,特别是就业增长放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前,美国非农就业人数的6个月平均增长已降至6.4万人,创下本轮经济周期以来的新低。失业率升至4.3%,是2021年末以来的最高水平。此外,近期基准修订表明2024-2025年的就业数据可能比此前预期更弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对这种疲软高度关注,8月1日就业报告大幅下修前几个月数据后,美国高收益债券息差当日跳涨23个基点,为4月初关税公告以来的最大单日涨幅。这表明,市场并非简单地将“坏消息视为好消息”,而是切实担忧经济衰退的风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_4184942453\">五、美联储等央行降息预期:并非经济强劲的标志</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者普遍预期主要央行尤其是美联储将进一步降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储期货市场甚至定价到2026年底将有超过100个基点的进一步降息。研报指出,这种降息预期并非经济强劲的信号,而更多地反映了投资者对经济增长可能放缓的担忧,认为降息是刺激经济所必需的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与1990年代末“互联网泡沫”时期形成对比的是,当时强劲的需求促使美联储在1999年进入加息周期,以应对劳动力市场趋紧。而如今,美联储因劳动力市场担忧而降息,十年期实际收益率也持续下降,这与当时的市场环境截然不同。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756073","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2569752185","content_text":"德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指与费城半导体指数接连刷新高点,市场情绪高涨。现货黄金也涨势如虹,一度触及每盎司3748.84美元的历史新高。风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点,这种矛盾且罕见局面让投资者怀疑市场“完美定价”了吗?是否已经充分反映所有利好,未来涨不动了?据追风交易台消息,德意志银行9月22日发布的研报认为,尽管近期风险资产表现出显著的韧性,但市场远未达到“完美定价”的状态,认为“市场几乎没有进一步上涨空间的观点是错误的”。该行分析师Henry Allen认为,当前市场远未“完美定价”,反而充斥着对未来风险的担忧,但这也为市场潜在的上涨提供了空间。换句话说,一旦这些被定价的风险未能成为现实,或者情况好于预期,市场反而可能迎来进一步的上行空间。比如,黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关税担忧、劳动力市场放缓以及央行降息预期,都反映出市场已计入大量潜在的下行风险。这与许多人将当前市场与“互联网泡沫”时期进行比较的观点形成了鲜明对比——彼时黄金价格处于历史低位,而美联储则在加息以应对强劲的需求。德意志银行详细阐述了市场远未“完美定价”的五大理由:一、黄金新高:恐惧的信号德意志银行报告的第一个核心论点是,黄金价格处于历史高位,这是市场恐惧而非极度乐观的典型迹象。报告强调,黄金作为一种不支付股息或票息的资产,其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。报告数据显示,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。当时,美国在时任美联储主席Paul Volcker领导的大规模货币紧缩政策下正滑向衰退。因此,从历史上看,高金价往往与经济动荡和不确定性相伴。这与科网泡沫时期形成鲜明对比,当时实际金价徘徊在数十年来的低点,反映出投资者追逐高回报风险资产的极度乐观情绪。二、美国通胀预期高企:与“完美”相去甚远根据美国通胀掉期数据显示,美国2年期通胀互换(inflation swap)利率在上周五收于2.92%,这意味着市场预期未来几年通胀仍将徘徊在美联储的目标之上。这意味着市场定价中隐含了通胀压力,将限制美联储降息的能力,这与一个“完美”的经济图景显然不符。如果通胀能够低于预期,反而可能为固定收益市场带来潜在的上涨空间。 三、关税担忧持续存在关税问题仍是投资者的一大担忧。报告提到,除了已实施的关税,美国仍在对制药、半导体和关键矿产等行业进行审查,这带来了进一步加征关税的可能性。这些悬而未决的风险,是市场无法忽视的负面因素,并已反映在定价之中。此外,缺乏永久性协议意味着美国关税依然存在突然反弹的风险,正如近期加拿大关税从25%上调至35%的案例。据新华社报道,美国白宫7月31日晚间发布公告称,美国总统特朗普当日已经签署行政令,从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望。四、美国劳动力市场显现担忧:就业增长放缓与衰退信号研报强调,美国劳动力市场的担忧迹象明显,特别是就业增长放缓。目前,美国非农就业人数的6个月平均增长已降至6.4万人,创下本轮经济周期以来的新低。失业率升至4.3%,是2021年末以来的最高水平。此外,近期基准修订表明2024-2025年的就业数据可能比此前预期更弱。市场对这种疲软高度关注,8月1日就业报告大幅下修前几个月数据后,美国高收益债券息差当日跳涨23个基点,为4月初关税公告以来的最大单日涨幅。这表明,市场并非简单地将“坏消息视为好消息”,而是切实担忧经济衰退的风险。五、美联储等央行降息预期:并非经济强劲的标志投资者普遍预期主要央行尤其是美联储将进一步降息。美联储期货市场甚至定价到2026年底将有超过100个基点的进一步降息。研报指出,这种降息预期并非经济强劲的信号,而更多地反映了投资者对经济增长可能放缓的担忧,认为降息是刺激经济所必需的。与1990年代末“互联网泡沫”时期形成对比的是,当时强劲的需求促使美联储在1999年进入加息周期,以应对劳动力市场趋紧。而如今,美联储因劳动力市场担忧而降息,十年期实际收益率也持续下降,这与当时的市场环境截然不同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1,".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4214299318669320","authorId":"4214299318669320","name":"解放就打开","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4214299318669320","authorIdStr":"4214299318669320"},"content":"他的意思不是美股还有很强上涨预期吗?现在因为风险担忧没兑现","text":"他的意思不是美股还有很强上涨预期吗?现在因为风险担忧没兑现","html":"他的意思不是美股还有很强上涨预期吗?现在因为风险担忧没兑现"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472855331262632,"gmtCreate":1756475418591,"gmtModify":1756475422860,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"想笑","listText":"想笑","text":"想笑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472855331262632","repostId":"1143336870","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143336870","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1756474727,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143336870?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 21:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143336870","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"转为由国内一家企业代工。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周五, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息:<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片,填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称,这款新芯片目前正在测试中,旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务,而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工,转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; 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class=\"title\">\n市场消息:阿里开发新款AI芯片顶替英伟达,不再由台积电代工\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-08-29 21:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周五, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 盘初大涨超9%。同时, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 快速下挫超3%, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a> 跌超2%。市场消息:<strong>阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片,填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。</strong>知情人士称,这款新芯片目前正在测试中,旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务,而且与英伟达兼容。</p><p>新的芯片不再由台积电代工,转为由国内一家企业代工。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45000285c8e73c4a5ead23daadd14c82\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d5a7686317b6ccdb1ef7f6133b3f4c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adb08d03b8d918c2c8ec9dd9fd9c0dcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5177d7812ef76cff1bd9b42843979808","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","TSM":"台积电","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143336870","content_text":"周五, 阿里巴巴 盘初大涨超9%。同时, 英伟达 快速下挫超3%, 台积电 跌超2%。市场消息:阿里开发了一款新的AI芯片,填补英伟达在中国市场的空白。知情人士称,这款新芯片目前正在测试中,旨在服务于更广泛的人工智能推理任务,而且与英伟达兼容。新的芯片不再由台积电代工,转为由国内一家企业代工。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1,"TSM":1.1,"BABA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457505926488904,"gmtCreate":1752732849143,"gmtModify":1752732850996,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中华之光啊","listText":"中华之光啊","text":"中华之光啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/457505926488904","repostId":"1115936621","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115936621","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1752730262,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115936621?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-17 13:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%,超出市场预期并创历史新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115936621","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月17日,$台积电(TSM)$第二季度净利润3,983亿元新台币,市场预估3,764.2亿元新台币。财报发布后,台积电美股夜盘拉升,现涨超2%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>【直播】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/live/1837262338804345/?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221837262338804345%22%2C%22type%22%3A2%7D\" title=\"台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议</a></strong></p><p>7月17日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布2025年第二季度业绩。财报显示,第二季度营收9337.9亿新台币,去年同期6735.1亿新台币;净利润3983亿元台币,市场预估3764.2亿新台币,去年同期2478.45亿新台币;第二季毛利率58.6%,市场预估57.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7304bce88d8d154615518098737492\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p>第二季度收入同比增长38.6%,净利润和稀释每股收益均增长60.7%;与2025年第一季度相比,第二季度收入增长11.3%,净利润增长10.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a7f05aea4b40b9901182c528acc2a8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p>第二季度,3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的24%,5纳米占36%,7纳米占14%。先进技术(定义为7纳米及更先进的技术)占晶圆总收入的74%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4391846804ed6cde95dc74092efd345e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3264540865\">业绩电话会要点:</h2><p>台积电预计第三季度销售额318亿美元至330亿美元,市场预估317.2亿美元;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度毛利率55.5%至57.5%,市场预估57.2%;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度营业利益率45.5%至47.5%,市场预估46.9%;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">仍然预测全年资本支出380亿美元至420亿美元;</p><p>预计2025年以美元计算的销售额将增长30%左右,高于此前“接近20%中段”的增长预期。</p><p>财报发布后,台积电美股夜盘拉升,现涨幅扩大至逾4%,待开盘股价势将再创历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d9cff74264cd4a274a0daa156827e73\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%,超出市场预期并创历史新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n台积电Q2净利润同比暴增近61%,超出市场预期并创历史新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-17 13:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>【直播】<a href=\"https://www.laohu8.com/m/live/1837262338804345/?name=RNLive&rndata=%7B%22liveId%22%3A%221837262338804345%22%2C%22type%22%3A2%7D\" title=\"台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议</a></strong></p><p>7月17日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布2025年第二季度业绩。财报显示,第二季度营收9337.9亿新台币,去年同期6735.1亿新台币;净利润3983亿元台币,市场预估3764.2亿新台币,去年同期2478.45亿新台币;第二季毛利率58.6%,市场预估57.9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d7304bce88d8d154615518098737492\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p>第二季度收入同比增长38.6%,净利润和稀释每股收益均增长60.7%;与2025年第一季度相比,第二季度收入增长11.3%,净利润增长10.2%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43a7f05aea4b40b9901182c528acc2a8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1302\" tg-height=\"601\"/></p><p>第二季度,3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的24%,5纳米占36%,7纳米占14%。先进技术(定义为7纳米及更先进的技术)占晶圆总收入的74%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4391846804ed6cde95dc74092efd345e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1333\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3264540865\">业绩电话会要点:</h2><p>台积电预计第三季度销售额318亿美元至330亿美元,市场预估317.2亿美元;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度毛利率55.5%至57.5%,市场预估57.2%;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">预计第三季度营业利益率45.5%至47.5%,市场预估46.9%;</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">仍然预测全年资本支出380亿美元至420亿美元;</p><p>预计2025年以美元计算的销售额将增长30%左右,高于此前“接近20%中段”的增长预期。</p><p>财报发布后,台积电美股夜盘拉升,现涨幅扩大至逾4%,待开盘股价势将再创历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d9cff74264cd4a274a0daa156827e73\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"864\" tg-height=\"831\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ab46ee73bd1bbc4ed7da6a69f14e5d5","relate_stocks":{"BK4527":"明星科技股","LU0823421333.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0143863784.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES\"DU\" (USD) ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","TSM":"台积电","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4605":"半导体精选","LU0094547139.USD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0572939691.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon Asian Dividend Income A2 SGD","LU0541501648.USD":"ALLSPRING EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU0359201885.HKD":"BGF CHINA \"A2\" (HKD) ACC","LU0823421416.USD":"BNP PARIBAS DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY \"C\" (USD) INC","LU0158827781.USD":" ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115936621","content_text":"【直播】台积电2025 Q2业绩电话会议7月17日,台积电发布2025年第二季度业绩。财报显示,第二季度营收9337.9亿新台币,去年同期6735.1亿新台币;净利润3983亿元台币,市场预估3764.2亿新台币,去年同期2478.45亿新台币;第二季毛利率58.6%,市场预估57.9%。第二季度收入同比增长38.6%,净利润和稀释每股收益均增长60.7%;与2025年第一季度相比,第二季度收入增长11.3%,净利润增长10.2%。第二季度,3纳米出货量占晶圆总收入的24%,5纳米占36%,7纳米占14%。先进技术(定义为7纳米及更先进的技术)占晶圆总收入的74%。业绩电话会要点:台积电预计第三季度销售额318亿美元至330亿美元,市场预估317.2亿美元;预计第三季度毛利率55.5%至57.5%,市场预估57.2%;预计第三季度营业利益率45.5%至47.5%,市场预估46.9%;仍然预测全年资本支出380亿美元至420亿美元;预计2025年以美元计算的销售额将增长30%左右,高于此前“接近20%中段”的增长预期。财报发布后,台积电美股夜盘拉升,现涨幅扩大至逾4%,待开盘股价势将再创历史新高。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":396050541474032,"gmtCreate":1737714529726,"gmtModify":1737714532479,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"从20年疫情的时候就一直谈这个“巴菲特指标”,但实际上这是老巴在上世纪提出来的东西,进入21世纪后由于全球化巴菲特自己就很少提及这个指标了,唯有简中媒体天天拿这个来说事,反正就是各种角度美股要崩盘","listText":"从20年疫情的时候就一直谈这个“巴菲特指标”,但实际上这是老巴在上世纪提出来的东西,进入21世纪后由于全球化巴菲特自己就很少提及这个指标了,唯有简中媒体天天拿这个来说事,反正就是各种角度美股要崩盘","text":"从20年疫情的时候就一直谈这个“巴菲特指标”,但实际上这是老巴在上世纪提出来的东西,进入21世纪后由于全球化巴菲特自己就很少提及这个指标了,唯有简中媒体天天拿这个来说事,反正就是各种角度美股要崩盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396050541474032","repostId":"1110068495","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1110068495","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1737708163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1110068495?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-01-24 16:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"暴跌将至?巴菲特指标创新高,美股或比互联网泡沫时期更危险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1110068495","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"未来的回报总是受到当前估值的影响。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><em>来源:Fortune</em></p><p><em>作者:Paolo Confino</em></p><p>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的市场指标之一正在发出警告信号!</p><p>根据 Kailash Capital Research 的研究,巴菲特指标(计算美国所有公开交易股票的市值与该国国内生产总值之比)处于几十年来的最高水平。<strong>根据 Kailash 的数据,截至 2024 年 11 月,该数字达到 230%,创历史新高。自 2000 年 3 月互联网泡沫破灭以来,这种市场动态从未见过。当时,市值与 GDP 之比已达到创纪录的 175%。</strong></p><p>对于巴菲特指标的支持者来说,该指标是预测股市何时可能暴跌的有用指标。如果公司估值超过 GDP 总额,则表明它们没有创造足够的真正经济价值,无法在经济中再循环。换句话说,这些公司的估值高于它们创造的实际价值。</p><p>“必须有实际的经济利润才能证明估值的合理性,”该报告的作者之一马修·马尔加里 (Matthew Malgari) 表示。“数据是无情的,”他和合著者桑吉夫·博杰拉吉 (Sanjeev Bhojraj) 警告说。</p><p>在巴菲特看来,该指标对于衡量公司当前的估值特别有用——估值是过高、过低还是恰到好处?如果估值过高,正如巴菲特指标目前所暗示的那样,那么投资者应该预期股市的回报微不足道。巴菲特在 1999 年接受《财富》杂志采访时概述了他对此事的看法。</p><p>巴菲特说:“<strong>你需要记住,未来的回报总是受到当前估值的影响,并考虑一下你现在在股市上能得到什么。</strong>”</p><p>他的观点是,即使是优秀的公司,估值过高也可能导致投资回报微薄,因为投资者可能没有以最优价格购买。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/421c86cc0a830b74f805ce68a58f2f7a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p><strong>互联网泡沫警告</strong></p><p>在 20 世纪 90 年代中后期互联网泡沫爆发之前,市场也高度集中,前 50 家公司的市值占 GDP 的 74%。相比之下,根据 Kailash 的数据,截至 2024 年 11 月初,前 50 只股票的市值占美国 GDP 的 110%。</p><p>根据 Kailash 的计算,在互联网泡沫爆发后的十年里,股市回报率为 -17%。对于该公司来说,当前的状况对投资者来说也意味着类似的危险。此外,在目前的状态下,市场估值不仅过高,而且过度集中在几家大公司的身上。</p><p>不过,BCA Research 首席策略师 Dhaval Joshi 表示,尽管市值与 GDP 之比具有指导意义,但它并不是一个完美的衡量标准,因为它没有考虑到美国股市中许多公司在国外销售产品和服务的事实。</p><p>“该衡量标准的一个小缺陷或问题是,如果市值中的公司是全球性公司(当然它们确实是),那么这是一种不匹配,因为你正在查看全球公司的市值与美国 GDP(实际上是美国的总销售额)的比率,”Joshi 说。</p><p>Malgari 和他的合著者 Sanjeev Bhojraj 承认,这是一个合理的批评,在全球范围内进行同样的分析将阐明这些市场动态是全球经济的新常态还是美国特有的异常现象。</p><p>然而,他们表示,批评也强化了他们的总体观点,即这些公司被高估了;正如全球贸易可以提供顺风一样,它也可以带来逆风。许多美国大公司——尤其是科技公司——面临着来自世界其他地区公司的激烈竞争,这些竞争可能会威胁到它们的主导地位。例如,特斯拉和苹果的主要竞争对手是比亚迪和华为,这两家公司来自中国,Bhojraj 指出。</p><p>“如果你真的考虑全球经济,你也应该考虑全球竞争,”他说。</p><p>Malgari 和 Bhojraj 认为证据很明显。“欢迎其他人继续用算数来战斗,但我们不会,”两人在他们的报告中写道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/090e669efc2b9c1584f15ba8a42d8c58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p>不过,当前的市场状况与过去几年相比存在一些关键差异。市场顶端的金融实力,如七大超级科技股,是前所未有的。例如,苹果在 2024 财年产生了超过 1080 亿美元的自由现金流,而截至其最新财报,Alphabet 手头有 930 亿美元现金。</p><p>“科技公司的资产负债表往往非常强劲,而且盈利非常稳定,不像过去那样周期性,”康涅狄格州格林威治经纪公司 Interactive Brokers 的高级经济学家 Jose Torres 表示。</p><p>Torres 补充说,技术现在更加融入了生活的方方面面,被人们和公司广泛采用。至少对于科技公司来说,它们有足够的空间继续增长。</p><p>“技术正在成为一个重要的增长动力,而当时它才刚刚起步,”Torres 说。“现在它几乎渗透到了我们所做的每一件事中,因此,这种集中程度并不像过去那么令人担忧。”</p><p>人工智能的出现似乎只会增强推动估值飙升的主要科技公司的实力。不过,巴菲特早在 1999 年就警告说,特定的技术繁荣不会自动转化为股市收益。当时,他指出了 20 世纪的两项革命性技术作为证据:汽车和飞机。到了 1999 年,即区块链被发明大约一个世纪之后,尽管区块链技术已经普及,但却未能成为股市上的宠儿。</p><p>巴菲特说:“<strong>投资的关键不在于评估一个行业对社会的影响有多大,或者它会增长多少,而是确定任何一家公司的竞争优势,最重要的是,这种优势的持久性。</strong>”</p><p>随着巴菲特指标继续攀升,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司退出了对美国银行和苹果等单一公司的投资,在此过程中积累了历史上最大的现金头寸。</p><p>这让一些投资者怀疑这位“奥马哈先知”是否真的知道一些他们不知道的事情。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a118568a8a8eb2ce50b2be56b1d6c1d4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>暴跌将至?巴菲特指标创新高,美股或比互联网泡沫时期更危险</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n暴跌将至?巴菲特指标创新高,美股或比互联网泡沫时期更危险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-01-24 16:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><em>来源:Fortune</em></p><p><em>作者:Paolo Confino</em></p><p>沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的市场指标之一正在发出警告信号!</p><p>根据 Kailash Capital Research 的研究,巴菲特指标(计算美国所有公开交易股票的市值与该国国内生产总值之比)处于几十年来的最高水平。<strong>根据 Kailash 的数据,截至 2024 年 11 月,该数字达到 230%,创历史新高。自 2000 年 3 月互联网泡沫破灭以来,这种市场动态从未见过。当时,市值与 GDP 之比已达到创纪录的 175%。</strong></p><p>对于巴菲特指标的支持者来说,该指标是预测股市何时可能暴跌的有用指标。如果公司估值超过 GDP 总额,则表明它们没有创造足够的真正经济价值,无法在经济中再循环。换句话说,这些公司的估值高于它们创造的实际价值。</p><p>“必须有实际的经济利润才能证明估值的合理性,”该报告的作者之一马修·马尔加里 (Matthew Malgari) 表示。“数据是无情的,”他和合著者桑吉夫·博杰拉吉 (Sanjeev Bhojraj) 警告说。</p><p>在巴菲特看来,该指标对于衡量公司当前的估值特别有用——估值是过高、过低还是恰到好处?如果估值过高,正如巴菲特指标目前所暗示的那样,那么投资者应该预期股市的回报微不足道。巴菲特在 1999 年接受《财富》杂志采访时概述了他对此事的看法。</p><p>巴菲特说:“<strong>你需要记住,未来的回报总是受到当前估值的影响,并考虑一下你现在在股市上能得到什么。</strong>”</p><p>他的观点是,即使是优秀的公司,估值过高也可能导致投资回报微薄,因为投资者可能没有以最优价格购买。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/421c86cc0a830b74f805ce68a58f2f7a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"413\"/></p><p><strong>互联网泡沫警告</strong></p><p>在 20 世纪 90 年代中后期互联网泡沫爆发之前,市场也高度集中,前 50 家公司的市值占 GDP 的 74%。相比之下,根据 Kailash 的数据,截至 2024 年 11 月初,前 50 只股票的市值占美国 GDP 的 110%。</p><p>根据 Kailash 的计算,在互联网泡沫爆发后的十年里,股市回报率为 -17%。对于该公司来说,当前的状况对投资者来说也意味着类似的危险。此外,在目前的状态下,市场估值不仅过高,而且过度集中在几家大公司的身上。</p><p>不过,BCA Research 首席策略师 Dhaval Joshi 表示,尽管市值与 GDP 之比具有指导意义,但它并不是一个完美的衡量标准,因为它没有考虑到美国股市中许多公司在国外销售产品和服务的事实。</p><p>“该衡量标准的一个小缺陷或问题是,如果市值中的公司是全球性公司(当然它们确实是),那么这是一种不匹配,因为你正在查看全球公司的市值与美国 GDP(实际上是美国的总销售额)的比率,”Joshi 说。</p><p>Malgari 和他的合著者 Sanjeev Bhojraj 承认,这是一个合理的批评,在全球范围内进行同样的分析将阐明这些市场动态是全球经济的新常态还是美国特有的异常现象。</p><p>然而,他们表示,批评也强化了他们的总体观点,即这些公司被高估了;正如全球贸易可以提供顺风一样,它也可以带来逆风。许多美国大公司——尤其是科技公司——面临着来自世界其他地区公司的激烈竞争,这些竞争可能会威胁到它们的主导地位。例如,特斯拉和苹果的主要竞争对手是比亚迪和华为,这两家公司来自中国,Bhojraj 指出。</p><p>“如果你真的考虑全球经济,你也应该考虑全球竞争,”他说。</p><p>Malgari 和 Bhojraj 认为证据很明显。“欢迎其他人继续用算数来战斗,但我们不会,”两人在他们的报告中写道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/090e669efc2b9c1584f15ba8a42d8c58\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\"/></p><p>不过,当前的市场状况与过去几年相比存在一些关键差异。市场顶端的金融实力,如七大超级科技股,是前所未有的。例如,苹果在 2024 财年产生了超过 1080 亿美元的自由现金流,而截至其最新财报,Alphabet 手头有 930 亿美元现金。</p><p>“科技公司的资产负债表往往非常强劲,而且盈利非常稳定,不像过去那样周期性,”康涅狄格州格林威治经纪公司 Interactive Brokers 的高级经济学家 Jose Torres 表示。</p><p>Torres 补充说,技术现在更加融入了生活的方方面面,被人们和公司广泛采用。至少对于科技公司来说,它们有足够的空间继续增长。</p><p>“技术正在成为一个重要的增长动力,而当时它才刚刚起步,”Torres 说。“现在它几乎渗透到了我们所做的每一件事中,因此,这种集中程度并不像过去那么令人担忧。”</p><p>人工智能的出现似乎只会增强推动估值飙升的主要科技公司的实力。不过,巴菲特早在 1999 年就警告说,特定的技术繁荣不会自动转化为股市收益。当时,他指出了 20 世纪的两项革命性技术作为证据:汽车和飞机。到了 1999 年,即区块链被发明大约一个世纪之后,尽管区块链技术已经普及,但却未能成为股市上的宠儿。</p><p>巴菲特说:“<strong>投资的关键不在于评估一个行业对社会的影响有多大,或者它会增长多少,而是确定任何一家公司的竞争优势,最重要的是,这种优势的持久性。</strong>”</p><p>随着巴菲特指标继续攀升,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司退出了对美国银行和苹果等单一公司的投资,在此过程中积累了历史上最大的现金头寸。</p><p>这让一些投资者怀疑这位“奥马哈先知”是否真的知道一些他们不知道的事情。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a118568a8a8eb2ce50b2be56b1d6c1d4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77c17847d53df54307ce17bbbf4789d3","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1110068495","content_text":"来源:Fortune作者:Paolo Confino沃伦·巴菲特最喜欢的市场指标之一正在发出警告信号!根据 Kailash Capital Research 的研究,巴菲特指标(计算美国所有公开交易股票的市值与该国国内生产总值之比)处于几十年来的最高水平。根据 Kailash 的数据,截至 2024 年 11 月,该数字达到 230%,创历史新高。自 2000 年 3 月互联网泡沫破灭以来,这种市场动态从未见过。当时,市值与 GDP 之比已达到创纪录的 175%。对于巴菲特指标的支持者来说,该指标是预测股市何时可能暴跌的有用指标。如果公司估值超过 GDP 总额,则表明它们没有创造足够的真正经济价值,无法在经济中再循环。换句话说,这些公司的估值高于它们创造的实际价值。“必须有实际的经济利润才能证明估值的合理性,”该报告的作者之一马修·马尔加里 (Matthew Malgari) 表示。“数据是无情的,”他和合著者桑吉夫·博杰拉吉 (Sanjeev Bhojraj) 警告说。在巴菲特看来,该指标对于衡量公司当前的估值特别有用——估值是过高、过低还是恰到好处?如果估值过高,正如巴菲特指标目前所暗示的那样,那么投资者应该预期股市的回报微不足道。巴菲特在 1999 年接受《财富》杂志采访时概述了他对此事的看法。巴菲特说:“你需要记住,未来的回报总是受到当前估值的影响,并考虑一下你现在在股市上能得到什么。”他的观点是,即使是优秀的公司,估值过高也可能导致投资回报微薄,因为投资者可能没有以最优价格购买。互联网泡沫警告在 20 世纪 90 年代中后期互联网泡沫爆发之前,市场也高度集中,前 50 家公司的市值占 GDP 的 74%。相比之下,根据 Kailash 的数据,截至 2024 年 11 月初,前 50 只股票的市值占美国 GDP 的 110%。根据 Kailash 的计算,在互联网泡沫爆发后的十年里,股市回报率为 -17%。对于该公司来说,当前的状况对投资者来说也意味着类似的危险。此外,在目前的状态下,市场估值不仅过高,而且过度集中在几家大公司的身上。不过,BCA Research 首席策略师 Dhaval Joshi 表示,尽管市值与 GDP 之比具有指导意义,但它并不是一个完美的衡量标准,因为它没有考虑到美国股市中许多公司在国外销售产品和服务的事实。“该衡量标准的一个小缺陷或问题是,如果市值中的公司是全球性公司(当然它们确实是),那么这是一种不匹配,因为你正在查看全球公司的市值与美国 GDP(实际上是美国的总销售额)的比率,”Joshi 说。Malgari 和他的合著者 Sanjeev Bhojraj 承认,这是一个合理的批评,在全球范围内进行同样的分析将阐明这些市场动态是全球经济的新常态还是美国特有的异常现象。然而,他们表示,批评也强化了他们的总体观点,即这些公司被高估了;正如全球贸易可以提供顺风一样,它也可以带来逆风。许多美国大公司——尤其是科技公司——面临着来自世界其他地区公司的激烈竞争,这些竞争可能会威胁到它们的主导地位。例如,特斯拉和苹果的主要竞争对手是比亚迪和华为,这两家公司来自中国,Bhojraj 指出。“如果你真的考虑全球经济,你也应该考虑全球竞争,”他说。Malgari 和 Bhojraj 认为证据很明显。“欢迎其他人继续用算数来战斗,但我们不会,”两人在他们的报告中写道。不过,当前的市场状况与过去几年相比存在一些关键差异。市场顶端的金融实力,如七大超级科技股,是前所未有的。例如,苹果在 2024 财年产生了超过 1080 亿美元的自由现金流,而截至其最新财报,Alphabet 手头有 930 亿美元现金。“科技公司的资产负债表往往非常强劲,而且盈利非常稳定,不像过去那样周期性,”康涅狄格州格林威治经纪公司 Interactive Brokers 的高级经济学家 Jose Torres 表示。Torres 补充说,技术现在更加融入了生活的方方面面,被人们和公司广泛采用。至少对于科技公司来说,它们有足够的空间继续增长。“技术正在成为一个重要的增长动力,而当时它才刚刚起步,”Torres 说。“现在它几乎渗透到了我们所做的每一件事中,因此,这种集中程度并不像过去那么令人担忧。”人工智能的出现似乎只会增强推动估值飙升的主要科技公司的实力。不过,巴菲特早在 1999 年就警告说,特定的技术繁荣不会自动转化为股市收益。当时,他指出了 20 世纪的两项革命性技术作为证据:汽车和飞机。到了 1999 年,即区块链被发明大约一个世纪之后,尽管区块链技术已经普及,但却未能成为股市上的宠儿。巴菲特说:“投资的关键不在于评估一个行业对社会的影响有多大,或者它会增长多少,而是确定任何一家公司的竞争优势,最重要的是,这种优势的持久性。”随着巴菲特指标继续攀升,伯克希尔哈撒韦公司退出了对美国银行和苹果等单一公司的投资,在此过程中积累了历史上最大的现金头寸。这让一些投资者怀疑这位“奥马哈先知”是否真的知道一些他们不知道的事情。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583659737350168,"gmtCreate":1783525150189,"gmtModify":1783525152149,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"川普的原话是,“也许我们会采取一些其他行动,可能会让油价再涨一点,但我认为不会涨很多”,意思是会打击伊朗,油价上涨的幅度可以接受。这**媒体故意歪曲意思","listText":"川普的原话是,“也许我们会采取一些其他行动,可能会让油价再涨一点,但我认为不会涨很多”,意思是会打击伊朗,油价上涨的幅度可以接受。这**媒体故意歪曲意思","text":"川普的原话是,“也许我们会采取一些其他行动,可能会让油价再涨一点,但我认为不会涨很多”,意思是会打击伊朗,油价上涨的幅度可以接受。这**媒体故意歪曲意思","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583659737350168","repostId":"2649994321","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2649994321","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1783520901,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2649994321?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-08 22:28","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649994321","media":"智通财经","summary":"特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价。","content":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n<div>\n 特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价。 </div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-08 22:28 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba0e918dfd4ec815c4f78fc4cfc3ea3e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2649994321","content_text":"特朗普:或许我们会采取一些措施来推高油价。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":2,"BZmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358996024422568,"gmtCreate":1728653429877,"gmtModify":1728653432056,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"反正在简中媒体的新闻里,美国就没有好过,天天就是要完","listText":"反正在简中媒体的新闻里,美国就没有好过,天天就是要完","text":"反正在简中媒体的新闻里,美国就没有好过,天天就是要完","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358996024422568","repostId":"2474309691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2474309691","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1728651931,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2474309691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-11 21:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"数据太过强劲!美国经济“不着陆”的理由又加一?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2474309691","media":"金十数据","summary":"在多年的高利率后,美国经济尚未出现实质性弱化,美联储可能不需要像之前预期那样大幅放松货币政策。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>美国经济似乎正朝着一个方向发展,这将使美国人难以从高利率中获得期待已久的缓解。</strong></p><p>这种情况被称为<strong>“不着陆”</strong>,<strong>即经济继续增长,但会以一种重新点燃通胀并阻碍美联储降息能力的方式。</strong>借贷成本没有下降将影响所有人:寻求更低价格的购物者,寻求更优惠利率的借款人以及期待更具吸引力的抵押贷款条款的购房者。</p><p>目前公布的大量数据支持美国经济可能不着陆的说法。</p><p>周四公布的通胀报告显示,9月CPI指数同比上涨2.4%,比前一个月有所放缓,但高于预期的2.3%,刚刚公布的9月PPI同比增长1.8%,同样高于市场预期。</p><p>在此之前是9月份的非农就业报告,该报告的表现超出了预期。美国当月新增25.4万个工作岗位,失业率降至4.1%。与此同时,7月和8月份的就业增长也向上修正。</p><p>这些数据表明,<strong>在多年高利率之后,美国经济尚未出现实质性弱化,美联储可能不需要像之前预期那样大幅放松货币政策。</strong></p><p>本周,Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni表示,他认为美联储今年剩下的时间里不会再降息。Yardeni本周在给客户的一份报告中说道,“9月份强劲的就业报告以及7月和8月的向上修正,扼杀了硬着陆情景。”</p><p>随着“不着陆情景”越来越被纳入债券市场定价,本周10年期美债收益率首次突破4%,其正影响经济的一个关键领域——住房。</p><p>自美联储大幅降息以来,30年期抵押贷款利率一直在攀升,而不是下降。进一步降息将如何影响抵押贷款成本尚不确定,这将取决于债券市场对未来数据的反应。</p><p>还存在一个次要风险——<strong>随着经济重新加速,通胀可能再次成为问题</strong>,从而巩固长期高利率的前景,而许多人在上个月美联储大幅降息后放弃了这种前景。Verdence Capital Advisors首席投资官Megan Horneman周一表示,“更强的就业增长可能会导致价格上涨,这将进一步加剧美联储的工作。我们认为,<strong>就业报告排除了11月份会议上再次降息50个基点的可能性</strong>。”</p><p>TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz周二在一份报告中也表达了类似的观点。他说:</p><blockquote><p>“美联储不会将联邦基金利率降至3%,但本轮的最终利率最终将过低,而且将保持过长时间。通胀随后反弹,美联储比任何人都预期得更早地再次加息。这种糟糕结果比预期更快到来的风险在于,美联储降息和激进的指引中最大的风险,也是市场没有定价的风险——即美国经济根本不着陆。”</p></blockquote><p>对于过去两年一直希望从高借贷成本中获得缓解的美国消费者来说,这些都是令人不快的消息。</p><p>根据美联储的数据,8月份商业银行信用卡贷款利率上升至21.7%,这是至少过去20年中记录到的最高利率。8月份48个月的新车贷款利率也上升至8.6%,是十年多来的最高水平。</p><p>费城联储的数据显示,大型银行的消费者抵押贷款发放量在第二季度也大幅下降至440亿美元,远低于2021年的峰值2120亿美元。</p><p>Bankrate高级经济分析师Mark Hamrick表示,“由于基准利率下降,大多数潜在借款人并没有感到借贷成本下降的压力。对于许多美国人来说,为大型商品融资和支付仍然是一件很困难的事情,无论是住房、汽车还是可能使用信用卡支付的其他家用物品。”</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>数据太过强劲!美国经济“不着陆”的理由又加一?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n数据太过强劲!美国经济“不着陆”的理由又加一?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-11 21:05 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150214&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国经济似乎正朝着一个方向发展,这将使美国人难以从高利率中获得期待已久的缓解。这种情况被称为“不着陆”,即经济继续增长,但会以一种重新点燃通胀并阻碍美联储降息能力的方式。借贷成本没有下降将影响所有人:寻求更低价格的购物者,寻求更优惠利率的借款人以及期待更具吸引力的抵押贷款条款的购房者。目前公布的大量数据支持美国经济可能不着陆的说法。周四公布的通胀报告显示,9月CPI指数同比上涨2.4%,比前一个月...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150214&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b946b8c0cd1f40215e576000d60ba82","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","OEX":"标普100","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150214&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2474309691","content_text":"美国经济似乎正朝着一个方向发展,这将使美国人难以从高利率中获得期待已久的缓解。这种情况被称为“不着陆”,即经济继续增长,但会以一种重新点燃通胀并阻碍美联储降息能力的方式。借贷成本没有下降将影响所有人:寻求更低价格的购物者,寻求更优惠利率的借款人以及期待更具吸引力的抵押贷款条款的购房者。目前公布的大量数据支持美国经济可能不着陆的说法。周四公布的通胀报告显示,9月CPI指数同比上涨2.4%,比前一个月有所放缓,但高于预期的2.3%,刚刚公布的9月PPI同比增长1.8%,同样高于市场预期。在此之前是9月份的非农就业报告,该报告的表现超出了预期。美国当月新增25.4万个工作岗位,失业率降至4.1%。与此同时,7月和8月份的就业增长也向上修正。这些数据表明,在多年高利率之后,美国经济尚未出现实质性弱化,美联储可能不需要像之前预期那样大幅放松货币政策。本周,Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni表示,他认为美联储今年剩下的时间里不会再降息。Yardeni本周在给客户的一份报告中说道,“9月份强劲的就业报告以及7月和8月的向上修正,扼杀了硬着陆情景。”随着“不着陆情景”越来越被纳入债券市场定价,本周10年期美债收益率首次突破4%,其正影响经济的一个关键领域——住房。自美联储大幅降息以来,30年期抵押贷款利率一直在攀升,而不是下降。进一步降息将如何影响抵押贷款成本尚不确定,这将取决于债券市场对未来数据的反应。还存在一个次要风险——随着经济重新加速,通胀可能再次成为问题,从而巩固长期高利率的前景,而许多人在上个月美联储大幅降息后放弃了这种前景。Verdence Capital Advisors首席投资官Megan Horneman周一表示,“更强的就业增长可能会导致价格上涨,这将进一步加剧美联储的工作。我们认为,就业报告排除了11月份会议上再次降息50个基点的可能性。”TS Lombard首席美国经济学家Steven Blitz周二在一份报告中也表达了类似的观点。他说:“美联储不会将联邦基金利率降至3%,但本轮的最终利率最终将过低,而且将保持过长时间。通胀随后反弹,美联储比任何人都预期得更早地再次加息。这种糟糕结果比预期更快到来的风险在于,美联储降息和激进的指引中最大的风险,也是市场没有定价的风险——即美国经济根本不着陆。”对于过去两年一直希望从高借贷成本中获得缓解的美国消费者来说,这些都是令人不快的消息。根据美联储的数据,8月份商业银行信用卡贷款利率上升至21.7%,这是至少过去20年中记录到的最高利率。8月份48个月的新车贷款利率也上升至8.6%,是十年多来的最高水平。费城联储的数据显示,大型银行的消费者抵押贷款发放量在第二季度也大幅下降至440亿美元,远低于2021年的峰值2120亿美元。Bankrate高级经济分析师Mark 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18:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗称美军舰遭导弹攻击,美官员否认美船只被伊导弹击中","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133834930","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/42363fb6b12076e4549d16bb297a59bf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b0435e2c99f0702f964f222396233eb\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"346\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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class=\"h-time\">2026-05-04 18:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/42363fb6b12076e4549d16bb297a59bf\" tg-width=\"744\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p>此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b0435e2c99f0702f964f222396233eb\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"346\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf8deb964fe83a788e7ae02a962af884","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133834930","content_text":"据新华社,美国媒体4日报道,美国高级官员否认美国船只被伊朗导弹击中。此前据伊朗法尔斯通讯社4日报道,一艘美国军舰意图通过霍尔木兹海峡,在无视伊朗海军的警告后遭到导弹攻击,被迫返航。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"QMmain":2,"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4198529490393670","authorId":"4198529490393670","name":"小猫变身","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4198529490393670","authorIdStr":"4198529490393670"},"content":"只要美军不炸郎子本土,他不敢先动手。","text":"只要美军不炸郎子本土,他不敢先动手。","html":"只要美军不炸郎子本土,他不敢先动手。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494155049681384,"gmtCreate":1761669394350,"gmtModify":1761669396810,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"诺基亚也是昔日的大佬啊,在今天的大佬面前就是个零头,真是此一时彼一时","listText":"诺基亚也是昔日的大佬啊,在今天的大佬面前就是个零头,真是此一时彼一时","text":"诺基亚也是昔日的大佬啊,在今天的大佬面前就是个零头,真是此一时彼一时","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494155049681384","repostId":"1177809319","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177809319","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1761665586,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177809319?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-28 23:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"诺基亚暴涨21%,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177809319","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"10月28日,据报道,$英伟达(NVDA)$将向$诺基亚(NOK)$进行10亿美元股权投资。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>10月28日,据报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>将向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>进行10亿美元股权投资,该笔交易将使英伟达持有诺基亚2.9%的股份。</p><p>英伟达将利用自家芯片来加速诺基亚的5G和6G网络软件(开发),并探索在自家人工智能(AI)架构里利用英伟达的数据中心技术。</p><p>诺基亚美国上市股票恢复交易,现涨超21%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cea6a692a57c69a1ccf077061c21637\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"583\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>诺基亚暴涨21%,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n诺基亚暴涨21%,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-28 23:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>10月28日,据报道,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>将向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">诺基亚</a>进行10亿美元股权投资,该笔交易将使英伟达持有诺基亚2.9%的股份。</p><p>英伟达将利用自家芯片来加速诺基亚的5G和6G网络软件(开发),并探索在自家人工智能(AI)架构里利用英伟达的数据中心技术。</p><p>诺基亚美国上市股票恢复交易,现涨超21%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cea6a692a57c69a1ccf077061c21637\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"898\" tg-height=\"583\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc0118e35c2c3a2c9e015f33f2d4de8","relate_stocks":{"BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","BK4612":"AI芯片","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4614":"Manus概念股","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4605":"半导体精选","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NVDA":"英伟达","BK5071":"通信设备","BK4608":"AI应用概念股","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4543":"AI","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4020":"通信设备","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4529":"IDC概念","NOK":"诺基亚","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4547":"WSB热门概念"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177809319","content_text":"10月28日,据报道,英伟达将向诺基亚进行10亿美元股权投资,该笔交易将使英伟达持有诺基亚2.9%的股份。英伟达将利用自家芯片来加速诺基亚的5G和6G网络软件(开发),并探索在自家人工智能(AI)架构里利用英伟达的数据中心技术。诺基亚美国上市股票恢复交易,现涨超21%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NOK":1.1,"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":481681913520512,"gmtCreate":1758622287081,"gmtModify":1758622868314,"author":{"id":"3492787339030986","authorId":"3492787339030986","name":"超超_6103","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e178c9f28079df8f96fc5ef22800a38f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3492787339030986","authorIdStr":"3492787339030986"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"意味着美股全是泡沫,即将股灾,美国药丸。你们这家媒体一撅屁股我就知道要放什么屁,从20年开始天天都是这种文章,没别的新闻写了吧?","listText":"意味着美股全是泡沫,即将股灾,美国药丸。你们这家媒体一撅屁股我就知道要放什么屁,从20年开始天天都是这种文章,没别的新闻写了吧?","text":"意味着美股全是泡沫,即将股灾,美国药丸。你们这家媒体一撅屁股我就知道要放什么屁,从20年开始天天都是这种文章,没别的新闻写了吧?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/481681913520512","repostId":"2569752185","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2569752185","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1758596842,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2569752185?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-23 11:07","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"美股与黄金同创新高,这意味着什么?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2569752185","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指与费城半导体指数接连刷新高点,市场情绪高涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c17d5d38d0c74628e5d0fbb053bb457\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现货黄金也涨势如虹,一度触及每盎司3748.84美元的历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdb88bf491dd3af50b36603ec274bb7\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"564\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点,这种矛盾且罕见局面让投资者怀疑市场“完美定价”了吗?是否已经充分反映所有利好,未来涨不动了?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息,德意志银行9月22日发布的研报认为,尽管近期风险资产表现出显著的韧性,但市场远未达到“完美定价”的状态,认为“市场几乎没有进一步上涨空间的观点是错误的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行分析师Henry Allen认为,<strong>当前市场远未“完美定价”,反而充斥着对未来风险的担忧,但这也为市场潜在的上涨提供了空间。换句话说,一旦这些被定价的风险未能成为现实,或者情况好于预期,市场反而可能迎来进一步的上行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">比如,黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关税担忧、劳动力市场放缓以及央行降息预期,都反映出<strong>市场已计入大量潜在的下行风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这与许多人将当前市场与“互联网泡沫”时期进行比较的观点形成了鲜明对比——彼时黄金价格处于历史低位,而美联储则在加息以应对强劲的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行详细阐述了市场远未“完美定价”的五大理由:</p><h2 id=\"id_1934954011\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一、黄金新高:恐惧的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行报告的第一个核心论点是,黄金价格处于历史高位,<strong>这是市场恐惧而非极度乐观的典型迹象</strong>。报告强调,黄金作为一种不支付股息或票息的资产,其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告数据显示,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。当时,美国在时任美联储主席Paul Volcker领导的大规模货币紧缩政策下正滑向衰退。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此,从历史上看,高金价往往与经济动荡和不确定性相伴。这与科网泡沫时期形成鲜明对比,当时实际金价徘徊在数十年来的低点,反映出投资者追逐高回报风险资产的极度乐观情绪。</p><h2 id=\"id_2978448662\">二、美国通胀预期高企:与“完美”相去甚远</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美国通胀掉期数据显示,美国2年期通胀互换(inflation swap)利率在上周五收于2.92%,这意味着市场预期未来几年通胀仍将徘徊在美联储的目标之上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着市场定价中隐含了通胀压力,将限制美联储降息的能力,这与一个“完美”的经济图景显然不符。如果通胀能够低于预期,反而可能为固定收益市场带来潜在的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_583569856\"> 三、关税担忧持续存在</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关税问题仍是投资者的一大担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告提到,除了已实施的关税,美国仍在对制药、半导体和关键矿产等行业进行审查,这带来了进一步加征关税的可能性。这些悬而未决的风险,是市场无法忽视的负面因素,并已反映在定价之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,缺乏永久性协议意味着美国关税依然存在突然反弹的风险,正如近期加拿大关税从25%上调至35%的案例。据新华社报道,美国白宫7月31日晚间发布公告称,美国总统特朗普当日已经签署行政令,从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望。</p><h2 id=\"id_1623163879\">四、美国劳动力市场显现担忧:就业增长放缓与衰退信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报强调,美国劳动力市场的担忧迹象明显,特别是就业增长放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前,美国非农就业人数的6个月平均增长已降至6.4万人,创下本轮经济周期以来的新低。失业率升至4.3%,是2021年末以来的最高水平。此外,近期基准修订表明2024-2025年的就业数据可能比此前预期更弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对这种疲软高度关注,8月1日就业报告大幅下修前几个月数据后,美国高收益债券息差当日跳涨23个基点,为4月初关税公告以来的最大单日涨幅。这表明,市场并非简单地将“坏消息视为好消息”,而是切实担忧经济衰退的风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_4184942453\">五、美联储等央行降息预期:并非经济强劲的标志</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者普遍预期主要央行尤其是美联储将进一步降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储期货市场甚至定价到2026年底将有超过100个基点的进一步降息。研报指出,这种降息预期并非经济强劲的信号,而更多地反映了投资者对经济增长可能放缓的担忧,认为降息是刺激经济所必需的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与1990年代末“互联网泡沫”时期形成对比的是,当时强劲的需求促使美联储在1999年进入加息周期,以应对劳动力市场趋紧。而如今,美联储因劳动力市场担忧而降息,十年期实际收益率也持续下降,这与当时的市场环境截然不同。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股与黄金同创新高,这意味着什么?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股与黄金同创新高,这意味着什么?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-23 11:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指与费城半导体指数接连刷新高点,市场情绪高涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c17d5d38d0c74628e5d0fbb053bb457\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"370\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">现货黄金也涨势如虹,一度触及每盎司3748.84美元的历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdb88bf491dd3af50b36603ec274bb7\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"564\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点,这种矛盾且罕见局面让投资者怀疑市场“完美定价”了吗?是否已经充分反映所有利好,未来涨不动了?</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据追风交易台消息,德意志银行9月22日发布的研报认为,尽管近期风险资产表现出显著的韧性,但市场远未达到“完美定价”的状态,认为“市场几乎没有进一步上涨空间的观点是错误的”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行分析师Henry Allen认为,<strong>当前市场远未“完美定价”,反而充斥着对未来风险的担忧,但这也为市场潜在的上涨提供了空间。换句话说,一旦这些被定价的风险未能成为现实,或者情况好于预期,市场反而可能迎来进一步的上行空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">比如,黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关税担忧、劳动力市场放缓以及央行降息预期,都反映出<strong>市场已计入大量潜在的下行风险。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这与许多人将当前市场与“互联网泡沫”时期进行比较的观点形成了鲜明对比——彼时黄金价格处于历史低位,而美联储则在加息以应对强劲的需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行详细阐述了市场远未“完美定价”的五大理由:</p><h2 id=\"id_1934954011\" style=\"text-align: left;\">一、黄金新高:恐惧的信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">德意志银行报告的第一个核心论点是,黄金价格处于历史高位,<strong>这是市场恐惧而非极度乐观的典型迹象</strong>。报告强调,黄金作为一种不支付股息或票息的资产,其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告数据显示,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。当时,美国在时任美联储主席Paul Volcker领导的大规模货币紧缩政策下正滑向衰退。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此,从历史上看,高金价往往与经济动荡和不确定性相伴。这与科网泡沫时期形成鲜明对比,当时实际金价徘徊在数十年来的低点,反映出投资者追逐高回报风险资产的极度乐观情绪。</p><h2 id=\"id_2978448662\">二、美国通胀预期高企:与“完美”相去甚远</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据美国通胀掉期数据显示,美国2年期通胀互换(inflation swap)利率在上周五收于2.92%,这意味着市场预期未来几年通胀仍将徘徊在美联储的目标之上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着市场定价中隐含了通胀压力,将限制美联储降息的能力,这与一个“完美”的经济图景显然不符。如果通胀能够低于预期,反而可能为固定收益市场带来潜在的上涨空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_583569856\"> 三、关税担忧持续存在</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">关税问题仍是投资者的一大担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告提到,除了已实施的关税,美国仍在对制药、半导体和关键矿产等行业进行审查,这带来了进一步加征关税的可能性。这些悬而未决的风险,是市场无法忽视的负面因素,并已反映在定价之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外,缺乏永久性协议意味着美国关税依然存在突然反弹的风险,正如近期加拿大关税从25%上调至35%的案例。据新华社报道,美国白宫7月31日晚间发布公告称,美国总统特朗普当日已经签署行政令,从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望。</p><h2 id=\"id_1623163879\">四、美国劳动力市场显现担忧:就业增长放缓与衰退信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报强调,美国劳动力市场的担忧迹象明显,特别是就业增长放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前,美国非农就业人数的6个月平均增长已降至6.4万人,创下本轮经济周期以来的新低。失业率升至4.3%,是2021年末以来的最高水平。此外,近期基准修订表明2024-2025年的就业数据可能比此前预期更弱。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场对这种疲软高度关注,8月1日就业报告大幅下修前几个月数据后,美国高收益债券息差当日跳涨23个基点,为4月初关税公告以来的最大单日涨幅。这表明,市场并非简单地将“坏消息视为好消息”,而是切实担忧经济衰退的风险。</p><h2 id=\"id_4184942453\">五、美联储等央行降息预期:并非经济强劲的标志</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">投资者普遍预期主要央行尤其是美联储将进一步降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储期货市场甚至定价到2026年底将有超过100个基点的进一步降息。研报指出,这种降息预期并非经济强劲的信号,而更多地反映了投资者对经济增长可能放缓的担忧,认为降息是刺激经济所必需的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与1990年代末“互联网泡沫”时期形成对比的是,当时强劲的需求促使美联储在1999年进入加息周期,以应对劳动力市场趋紧。而如今,美联储因劳动力市场担忧而降息,十年期实际收益率也持续下降,这与当时的市场环境截然不同。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b72c7a49848a200043090f96ed32f108","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3756073","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2569752185","content_text":"德意志银行认为,尽管风险资产价格上涨,但市场并未“为完美定价”。多项指标显示,市场已将显著的下行风险计入当前价格。比如,黄金创历史新高是市场恐惧的表现,同时通胀、关税及就业放缓担忧犹存。市场甚至定价美联储大幅降息。但正因预期悲观,一旦风险未爆发或形势好转,资产反而具备上行空间。隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指与费城半导体指数接连刷新高点,市场情绪高涨。现货黄金也涨势如虹,一度触及每盎司3748.84美元的历史新高。风险资产与避险资产同步攀升至历史高点,这种矛盾且罕见局面让投资者怀疑市场“完美定价”了吗?是否已经充分反映所有利好,未来涨不动了?据追风交易台消息,德意志银行9月22日发布的研报认为,尽管近期风险资产表现出显著的韧性,但市场远未达到“完美定价”的状态,认为“市场几乎没有进一步上涨空间的观点是错误的”。该行分析师Henry Allen认为,当前市场远未“完美定价”,反而充斥着对未来风险的担忧,但这也为市场潜在的上涨提供了空间。换句话说,一旦这些被定价的风险未能成为现实,或者情况好于预期,市场反而可能迎来进一步的上行空间。比如,黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关税担忧、劳动力市场放缓以及央行降息预期,都反映出市场已计入大量潜在的下行风险。这与许多人将当前市场与“互联网泡沫”时期进行比较的观点形成了鲜明对比——彼时黄金价格处于历史低位,而美联储则在加息以应对强劲的需求。德意志银行详细阐述了市场远未“完美定价”的五大理由:一、黄金新高:恐惧的信号德意志银行报告的第一个核心论点是,黄金价格处于历史高位,这是市场恐惧而非极度乐观的典型迹象。报告强调,黄金作为一种不支付股息或票息的资产,其吸引力通常在投资者寻求避险时上升。报告数据显示,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。当时,美国在时任美联储主席Paul Volcker领导的大规模货币紧缩政策下正滑向衰退。因此,从历史上看,高金价往往与经济动荡和不确定性相伴。这与科网泡沫时期形成鲜明对比,当时实际金价徘徊在数十年来的低点,反映出投资者追逐高回报风险资产的极度乐观情绪。二、美国通胀预期高企:与“完美”相去甚远根据美国通胀掉期数据显示,美国2年期通胀互换(inflation swap)利率在上周五收于2.92%,这意味着市场预期未来几年通胀仍将徘徊在美联储的目标之上。这意味着市场定价中隐含了通胀压力,将限制美联储降息的能力,这与一个“完美”的经济图景显然不符。如果通胀能够低于预期,反而可能为固定收益市场带来潜在的上涨空间。 三、关税担忧持续存在关税问题仍是投资者的一大担忧。报告提到,除了已实施的关税,美国仍在对制药、半导体和关键矿产等行业进行审查,这带来了进一步加征关税的可能性。这些悬而未决的风险,是市场无法忽视的负面因素,并已反映在定价之中。此外,缺乏永久性协议意味着美国关税依然存在突然反弹的风险,正如近期加拿大关税从25%上调至35%的案例。据新华社报道,美国白宫7月31日晚间发布公告称,美国总统特朗普当日已经签署行政令,从8月1日起将加拿大输美商品关税税率从25%上调至35%。加拿大总理卡尼对此表示失望。四、美国劳动力市场显现担忧:就业增长放缓与衰退信号研报强调,美国劳动力市场的担忧迹象明显,特别是就业增长放缓。目前,美国非农就业人数的6个月平均增长已降至6.4万人,创下本轮经济周期以来的新低。失业率升至4.3%,是2021年末以来的最高水平。此外,近期基准修订表明2024-2025年的就业数据可能比此前预期更弱。市场对这种疲软高度关注,8月1日就业报告大幅下修前几个月数据后,美国高收益债券息差当日跳涨23个基点,为4月初关税公告以来的最大单日涨幅。这表明,市场并非简单地将“坏消息视为好消息”,而是切实担忧经济衰退的风险。五、美联储等央行降息预期:并非经济强劲的标志投资者普遍预期主要央行尤其是美联储将进一步降息。美联储期货市场甚至定价到2026年底将有超过100个基点的进一步降息。研报指出,这种降息预期并非经济强劲的信号,而更多地反映了投资者对经济增长可能放缓的担忧,认为降息是刺激经济所必需的。与1990年代末“互联网泡沫”时期形成对比的是,当时强劲的需求促使美联储在1999年进入加息周期,以应对劳动力市场趋紧。而如今,美联储因劳动力市场担忧而降息,十年期实际收益率也持续下降,这与当时的市场环境截然不同。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1,".DJI":1.1,".IXIC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4124,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4214299318669320","authorId":"4214299318669320","name":"解放就打开","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4214299318669320","authorIdStr":"4214299318669320"},"content":"他的意思不是美股还有很强上涨预期吗?现在因为风险担忧没兑现","text":"他的意思不是美股还有很强上涨预期吗?现在因为风险担忧没兑现","html":"他的意思不是美股还有很强上涨预期吗?现在因为风险担忧没兑现"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}