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mala小龙虾

mala小龙虾

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0勋章

11-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@ETF小帮手:ETF追踪 | 美国大选对债券ETF的潜在影响：收益率将走向何方？

11-05

特朗普来了，就是你。

10-31

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 这…

10-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这……

10-28

大选进入倒计时：华尔街全面押注“特朗普交易”

查看详情：大选进入倒计时：华尔街全面押注“特朗普交易”

大选进入倒计时：华尔街全面押注“特朗普交易”

10-01

$MSFT 20241220 455.0 CALL$ 尾盘科技股拉升？

09-27

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@平平无奇的技术小天才:投资特斯拉已经五年了，特斯拉是仓位里最重要的一只股票，到底是什么让我坚持了这么久？ $特斯拉(TSLA)$【视频转载自油管HackBear 泰瑞】

09-19

$QQQ 20240920 475.0 PUT$ 今天是值得纪念的一天

09-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@爱发红包的虎妞:【虎友投资说】降息能让股市冲新高吗？现在买什么能赚最多？

09-14

26

@小虎老师:💰美联储降息倒计时？6张图看懂历史背景、全球资产影响及利好美股

09-14

ZX

@小虎老师:💰美联储降息倒计时？6张图看懂历史背景、全球资产影响及利好美股

09-10

在议息之前跌倒他说的位置也不是不可能，整个大盘整个九月波动太大了 $台积电(TSM)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$

09-01

12

@小虎AV:现在包括高盛等大行都发话说美国9月肯定会降息，降息周期下，股票到底是涨，还是跌？8月 $标普500(.SPX)$ 截止周四收盘，月度上涨，9月股市会回调还是继续上涨呢？评论区分享你的观点或操作，一起瓜分1000虎币奖励！

08-30

你这是买的25年到400的call吗？怎么显示说是平仓二手呢

@谋定后动:我平仓了2手$MSFT 20250117 400.0 CALL$ ,继续加仓微软，我最有信仰的个股。Continue to increase your holdings in Microsoft, the stock I believe in most.

08-14

$NVDA 20240816 117.0 PUT$

08-08

$Lumen Technologies(LUMN)$

08-01

$NVDA 20240809 114.0 PUT$ 这几天波动好大啊，做波段。

08-01

$NVDA 20240802 116.0 PUT$

07-29

$TCH.HK 20240730 350.00 PUT$

07-29

不要操作，空仓，等巨头们发完财报，等大盘稳，等vix稳定往下 $IWM 20241018 220.0 CALL$ $罗素2000指数ETF(IWM)$ $微软(MSFT)$

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| 美国大选对债券ETF的潜在影响：收益率将走向何方？","htmlText":"随着美国大选结果即将出炉，债券市场和相关ETF投资者正密切关注其潜在影响。尽管股市通常成为焦点，但债券市场的反应同样不可忽视。比如，随着选情胶着，iShares 20年期以上美国国债ETF（TLT）周一上涨近2%。市场在押注哪位候选人获胜后，可能会带来更高的收益率还是更低的收益率。以下，我们来解读大选结果对债券市场可能的影响，以及投资者应当关注的其他关键因素。两位候选人的政策对债市的不同影响市场观察人士认为，特朗普和哈里斯的政策可能给债市带来不同的影响。通常，在过去一个月中，当特朗普胜选的可能性增大时，10年期美国国债收益率上升；而当哈里斯的胜算更高时，收益率则出现下滑。这背后的逻辑是，特朗普的经济政策更倾向于加大赤字支出和推动通胀，而哈里斯则可能更偏向温和的政策。数据显示，特朗普的经济政策被认为可能会使财政赤字进一步扩大。据联邦预算责任委员会预测，特朗普的政策可能在2035年使国债增加7.75万亿美元，而哈里斯的政策预计仅增加3.95万亿美元。赤字越大，通胀压力通常会随之增加，这可能进一步推高债券收益率。相应地，《华尔街日报》对经济学家的调查显示，68%的受访者认为，特朗普任期内的消费价格涨幅将高于哈里斯，而只有12%认为哈里斯的通胀率会更高。TLT的价格波动：市场对选情的直接反应TLT的价格表现充分反映了市场对选情的敏感性。在选情趋于胶着的情况下，TLT价格周一上涨近2%。通常来说，债券价格和收益率呈反向关系，因此TLT的上涨意味着投资者在押注收益率的下降。实际上，之前随着特朗普胜选概率上升，TLT价格一度持续下滑，这暗示市场预期特朗普的政策将导致更高的收益率。不过，虽然市场在推测“特朗普=更高收益率、哈里斯=更低收益率”这个逻辑，但真正的结果不一定按此发展。政治只是影响市场的一个因素，债券市场的走向还取决于其他多方面的因素。美联储政策与经济数据的角色除了选举结果，美联","listText":"随着美国大选结果即将出炉，债券市场和相关ETF投资者正密切关注其潜在影响。尽管股市通常成为焦点，但债券市场的反应同样不可忽视。比如，随着选情胶着，iShares 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20年期以上美国国债ETF（TLT）周一上涨近2%。市场在押注哪位候选人获胜后，可能会带来更高的收益率还是更低的收益率。以下，我们来解读大选结果对债券市场可能的影响，以及投资者应当关注的其他关键因素。两位候选人的政策对债市的不同影响市场观察人士认为，特朗普和哈里斯的政策可能给债市带来不同的影响。通常，在过去一个月中，当特朗普胜选的可能性增大时，10年期美国国债收益率上升；而当哈里斯的胜算更高时，收益率则出现下滑。这背后的逻辑是，特朗普的经济政策更倾向于加大赤字支出和推动通胀，而哈里斯则可能更偏向温和的政策。数据显示，特朗普的经济政策被认为可能会使财政赤字进一步扩大。据联邦预算责任委员会预测，特朗普的政策可能在2035年使国债增加7.75万亿美元，而哈里斯的政策预计仅增加3.95万亿美元。赤字越大，通胀压力通常会随之增加，这可能进一步推高债券收益率。相应地，《华尔街日报》对经济学家的调查显示，68%的受访者认为，特朗普任期内的消费价格涨幅将高于哈里斯，而只有12%认为哈里斯的通胀率会更高。TLT的价格波动：市场对选情的直接反应TLT的价格表现充分反映了市场对选情的敏感性。在选情趋于胶着的情况下，TLT价格周一上涨近2%。通常来说，债券价格和收益率呈反向关系，因此TLT的上涨意味着投资者在押注收益率的下降。实际上，之前随着特朗普胜选概率上升，TLT价格一度持续下滑，这暗示市场预期特朗普的政策将导致更高的收益率。不过，虽然市场在推测“特朗普=更高收益率、哈里斯=更低收益率”这个逻辑，但真正的结果不一定按此发展。政治只是影响市场的一个因素，债券市场的走向还取决于其他多方面的因素。美联储政策与经济数据的角色除了选举结果，美联","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368050144022600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":367782068760728,"gmtCreate":1730808372611,"gmtModify":1730811364505,"author":{"id":"3481607711352696","authorId":"3481607711352696","name":"mala小龙虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc9ab7153bc12433e7e0fa68e410243","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481607711352696","idStr":"3481607711352696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特朗普来了，就是你。","listText":"特朗普来了，就是你。","text":"特朗普来了，就是你。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/367782068760728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365852978737192,"gmtCreate":1730319998249,"gmtModify":1730320000428,"author":{"id":"3481607711352696","authorId":"3481607711352696","name":"mala小龙虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc9ab7153bc12433e7e0fa68e410243","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481607711352696","idStr":"3481607711352696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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泰瑞】","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353488373489816","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"de5ee3195caa45dcaf2b692d80e6f1d9","tweetId":"353488373489816","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/b9972fcfvodtranscq1254107296/43e45ef31397757894047270266/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c75dadb9c3b2d9c9d9487b96416bf98d"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350871568417056,"gmtCreate":1726687490978,"gmtModify":1726687495322,"author":{"id":"3481607711352696","authorId":"3481607711352696","name":"mala小龙虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc9ab7153bc12433e7e0fa68e410243","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481607711352696","idStr":"3481607711352696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 纷纷创下新高，多家机构也再度上调spx的年底目标价[美金]。那么，这次降息究竟能给股市带来何等表现呢？是会推动股票继续冲高，还是会因为“sell the news”效应而跳水。哪些股票又是当下的最好选择？以下是各位虎友的观点，你是否认同[你懂的][你懂的] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556673506813374\">@谋定后动</a> 鲍威尔在记者招待会的讲话非常重要，我们需要听听他是怎么解释美联储的政策的，是对未来经济前景乐观、审慎还是悲观。此外，点阵图也非常重要，它将表明美联储委员们对接下来降息速度和幅度的态度，这也是市场热切关注的。根据谈话时CME上最新的数据，降息50个基点是大概率的65%，仅仅一个星期前，这个概率还在30%。这是CME历史上罕见的。通常美联储会议前两个星期这个数字的概率就稳定在90%以上了。这说明目前的经济数据比较分歧，让美联储举棋不定，美联储传声筒Nick在X上的帖子说，“降息50个基点被认为是后悔最小化”，综合各方消息，我认为今晚降息50个基点的概率比较大，利好国债和小盘股，也会助长市场的风险偏好，或许能引发比特币等风险资产来一波上涨。对于我自己而言，布局在上个星期就大致做好了，因此不会有特别的操作，就是静等开盅时刻的到来。鲍威尔在记者招待会的讲话是重要看点，我们需要听听他是怎么解释美联储的政策的，是对未来经济前景乐观、审慎还是悲观。此外，点阵图也非常重要，它将表明美联","listText":"刺不刺激，美联储马上要公布最新利率决议了[财迷]！市场普遍预期将会降息，争议主要集中在是降25个基点还是50个基点。而昨日盘中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 纷纷创下新高，多家机构也再度上调spx的年底目标价[美金]。那么，这次降息究竟能给股市带来何等表现呢？是会推动股票继续冲高，还是会因为“sell the news”效应而跳水。哪些股票又是当下的最好选择？以下是各位虎友的观点，你是否认同[你懂的][你懂的] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3556673506813374\">@谋定后动</a> 鲍威尔在记者招待会的讲话非常重要，我们需要听听他是怎么解释美联储的政策的，是对未来经济前景乐观、审慎还是悲观。此外，点阵图也非常重要，它将表明美联储委员们对接下来降息速度和幅度的态度，这也是市场热切关注的。根据谈话时CME上最新的数据，降息50个基点是大概率的65%，仅仅一个星期前，这个概率还在30%。这是CME历史上罕见的。通常美联储会议前两个星期这个数字的概率就稳定在90%以上了。这说明目前的经济数据比较分歧，让美联储举棋不定，美联储传声筒Nick在X上的帖子说，“降息50个基点被认为是后悔最小化”，综合各方消息，我认为今晚降息50个基点的概率比较大，利好国债和小盘股，也会助长市场的风险偏好，或许能引发比特币等风险资产来一波上涨。对于我自己而言，布局在上个星期就大致做好了，因此不会有特别的操作，就是静等开盅时刻的到来。鲍威尔在记者招待会的讲话是重要看点，我们需要听听他是怎么解释美联储的政策的，是对未来经济前景乐观、审慎还是悲观。此外，点阵图也非常重要，它将表明美联","text":"刺不刺激，美联储马上要公布最新利率决议了[财迷]！市场普遍预期将会降息，争议主要集中在是降25个基点还是50个基点。而昨日盘中， $标普500(.SPX)$ 和 $道琼斯(.DJI)$ 纷纷创下新高，多家机构也再度上调spx的年底目标价[美金]。那么，这次降息究竟能给股市带来何等表现呢？是会推动股票继续冲高，还是会因为“sell the news”效应而跳水。哪些股票又是当下的最好选择？以下是各位虎友的观点，你是否认同[你懂的][你懂的] @谋定后动 鲍威尔在记者招待会的讲话非常重要，我们需要听听他是怎么解释美联储的政策的，是对未来经济前景乐观、审慎还是悲观。此外，点阵图也非常重要，它将表明美联储委员们对接下来降息速度和幅度的态度，这也是市场热切关注的。根据谈话时CME上最新的数据，降息50个基点是大概率的65%，仅仅一个星期前，这个概率还在30%。这是CME历史上罕见的。通常美联储会议前两个星期这个数字的概率就稳定在90%以上了。这说明目前的经济数据比较分歧，让美联储举棋不定，美联储传声筒Nick在X上的帖子说，“降息50个基点被认为是后悔最小化”，综合各方消息，我认为今晚降息50个基点的概率比较大，利好国债和小盘股，也会助长市场的风险偏好，或许能引发比特币等风险资产来一波上涨。对于我自己而言，布局在上个星期就大致做好了，因此不会有特别的操作，就是静等开盅时刻的到来。鲍威尔在记者招待会的讲话是重要看点，我们需要听听他是怎么解释美联储的政策的，是对未来经济前景乐观、审慎还是悲观。此外，点阵图也非常重要，它将表明美联","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a1a45fb737639dffd9a8aad3e01fd3","width":"1080","height":"1080"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b26e620aa725a324df970cca7f1c2613","width":"2844","height":"1584"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50bb08aea227b5c4cc19fc1626659ea9","width":"1442","height":"469"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350746170728600","isVote":2,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"vote":{"id":3453,"gmtBegin":1726652282651,"gmtEnd":1727257062023,"type":1,"upper":1,"title":"你认为降息落地后，股市会如何表现？","choices":[{"id":12311,"sort":1,"name":"大涨","userSize":39,"voted":false},{"id":12312,"sort":2,"name":"大跌","userSize":50,"voted":false},{"id":12313,"sort":3,"name":"没啥变化","userSize":41,"voted":false},{"id":12314,"sort":4,"name":"其他（评论区说）","userSize":3,"voted":false}]},"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":349195551518944,"gmtCreate":1726292759181,"gmtModify":1726292760513,"author":{"id":"3481607711352696","authorId":"3481607711352696","name":"mala小龙虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc9ab7153bc12433e7e0fa68e410243","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481607711352696","idStr":"3481607711352696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"26","listText":"26","text":"26","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349195551518944","repostId":"348846396080144","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":348846396080144,"gmtCreate":1726199008785,"gmtModify":1726633408145,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36989258284800","idStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"💰美联储降息倒计时？6张图看懂历史背景、全球资产影响及利好美股","htmlText":"9月18日，美联储预期将迎来新一轮的降息周期，9月的美股市场萦绕在高波动的预期环境中。根据Trading Economics的数据，预计2024年美国联邦基金利率将在4.75%左右，2025年将在3.75%左右。透社调查的经济学家中，绝大多数表示，美联储将在 2024 年剩余的三次会议上每次降息 25 个基点。推荐阅读&gt;&gt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348162244608016\" target=\"_blank\">美联储降息路径与降息交易分析 </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@美股解毒师</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348299939303600\" target=\"_blank\">通胀只是加息与降息的借口，这一轮美联储不得不降的原因是这个！</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532831849818465\">@许亚鑫</a>图表1. 降息对于全市场的影响或包含方方面面借贷成本降低：银行和其他金融机构的贷款利率可能会下降，个人和企业更容易以较低的成本获得贷款。刺激消费和投资：较低的借贷成本鼓励个人和企业增加消费和投资，进而或促进经济增长。储蓄收益减少：降息可能会降低储蓄账户和定期存款的利率，这意味着储蓄的回报可能会减少。债券价格和收益率变动：新发行的债券的利率会更低，现有债券相对更有吸引力预期债券价格上涨。货币价值变动：如果一个国家的利率下降，那么其货币可能会相对于其他国家的货币贬值，这可能会影响出口和进口的成本。股市波动：降息后，企业可以以较低的成本融资，可能会提高公司的盈利预期，这可能会推动股市上涨。然而，当市场已经预期到降息，那么实际降息时股市的反应可能会有限。大宗商品：随着投资","listText":"9月18日，美联储预期将迎来新一轮的降息周期，9月的美股市场萦绕在高波动的预期环境中。根据Trading Economics的数据，预计2024年美国联邦基金利率将在4.75%左右，2025年将在3.75%左右。透社调查的经济学家中，绝大多数表示，美联储将在 2024 年剩余的三次会议上每次降息 25 个基点。推荐阅读&gt;&gt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348162244608016\" target=\"_blank\">美联储降息路径与降息交易分析 </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@美股解毒师</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348299939303600\" target=\"_blank\">通胀只是加息与降息的借口，这一轮美联储不得不降的原因是这个！</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532831849818465\">@许亚鑫</a>图表1. 降息对于全市场的影响或包含方方面面借贷成本降低：银行和其他金融机构的贷款利率可能会下降，个人和企业更容易以较低的成本获得贷款。刺激消费和投资：较低的借贷成本鼓励个人和企业增加消费和投资，进而或促进经济增长。储蓄收益减少：降息可能会降低储蓄账户和定期存款的利率，这意味着储蓄的回报可能会减少。债券价格和收益率变动：新发行的债券的利率会更低，现有债券相对更有吸引力预期债券价格上涨。货币价值变动：如果一个国家的利率下降，那么其货币可能会相对于其他国家的货币贬值，这可能会影响出口和进口的成本。股市波动：降息后，企业可以以较低的成本融资，可能会提高公司的盈利预期，这可能会推动股市上涨。然而，当市场已经预期到降息，那么实际降息时股市的反应可能会有限。大宗商品：随着投资","text":"9月18日，美联储预期将迎来新一轮的降息周期，9月的美股市场萦绕在高波动的预期环境中。根据Trading Economics的数据，预计2024年美国联邦基金利率将在4.75%左右，2025年将在3.75%左右。透社调查的经济学家中，绝大多数表示，美联储将在 2024 年剩余的三次会议上每次降息 25 个基点。推荐阅读>>美联储降息路径与降息交易分析 @美股解毒师通胀只是加息与降息的借口，这一轮美联储不得不降的原因是这个！ @许亚鑫图表1. 降息对于全市场的影响或包含方方面面借贷成本降低：银行和其他金融机构的贷款利率可能会下降，个人和企业更容易以较低的成本获得贷款。刺激消费和投资：较低的借贷成本鼓励个人和企业增加消费和投资，进而或促进经济增长。储蓄收益减少：降息可能会降低储蓄账户和定期存款的利率，这意味着储蓄的回报可能会减少。债券价格和收益率变动：新发行的债券的利率会更低，现有债券相对更有吸引力预期债券价格上涨。货币价值变动：如果一个国家的利率下降，那么其货币可能会相对于其他国家的货币贬值，这可能会影响出口和进口的成本。股市波动：降息后，企业可以以较低的成本融资，可能会提高公司的盈利预期，这可能会推动股市上涨。然而，当市场已经预期到降息，那么实际降息时股市的反应可能会有限。大宗商品：随着投资","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b96502db167200402936727ffda1c5","width":"1024","height":"1280"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07b66a2ae6cef70e685b4855a8dd28f7","width":"1080","height":"1710"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/767d2f4f4fb04af4e5f83f215eb48f0f","width":"1080","height":"1710"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348846396080144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349236306591872,"gmtCreate":1726292556027,"gmtModify":1726292557656,"author":{"id":"3481607711352696","authorId":"3481607711352696","name":"mala小龙虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc9ab7153bc12433e7e0fa68e410243","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481607711352696","idStr":"3481607711352696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ZX","listText":"ZX","text":"ZX","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349236306591872","repostId":"348846396080144","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":348846396080144,"gmtCreate":1726199008785,"gmtModify":1726633408145,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36989258284800","idStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"💰美联储降息倒计时？6张图看懂历史背景、全球资产影响及利好美股","htmlText":"9月18日，美联储预期将迎来新一轮的降息周期，9月的美股市场萦绕在高波动的预期环境中。根据Trading Economics的数据，预计2024年美国联邦基金利率将在4.75%左右，2025年将在3.75%左右。透社调查的经济学家中，绝大多数表示，美联储将在 2024 年剩余的三次会议上每次降息 25 个基点。推荐阅读&gt;&gt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348162244608016\" target=\"_blank\">美联储降息路径与降息交易分析 </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@美股解毒师</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348299939303600\" target=\"_blank\">通胀只是加息与降息的借口，这一轮美联储不得不降的原因是这个！</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532831849818465\">@许亚鑫</a>图表1. 降息对于全市场的影响或包含方方面面借贷成本降低：银行和其他金融机构的贷款利率可能会下降，个人和企业更容易以较低的成本获得贷款。刺激消费和投资：较低的借贷成本鼓励个人和企业增加消费和投资，进而或促进经济增长。储蓄收益减少：降息可能会降低储蓄账户和定期存款的利率，这意味着储蓄的回报可能会减少。债券价格和收益率变动：新发行的债券的利率会更低，现有债券相对更有吸引力预期债券价格上涨。货币价值变动：如果一个国家的利率下降，那么其货币可能会相对于其他国家的货币贬值，这可能会影响出口和进口的成本。股市波动：降息后，企业可以以较低的成本融资，可能会提高公司的盈利预期，这可能会推动股市上涨。然而，当市场已经预期到降息，那么实际降息时股市的反应可能会有限。大宗商品：随着投资","listText":"9月18日，美联储预期将迎来新一轮的降息周期，9月的美股市场萦绕在高波动的预期环境中。根据Trading Economics的数据，预计2024年美国联邦基金利率将在4.75%左右，2025年将在3.75%左右。透社调查的经济学家中，绝大多数表示，美联储将在 2024 年剩余的三次会议上每次降息 25 个基点。推荐阅读&gt;&gt;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348162244608016\" target=\"_blank\">美联储降息路径与降息交易分析 </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3440721572920950\">@美股解毒师</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/348299939303600\" target=\"_blank\">通胀只是加息与降息的借口，这一轮美联储不得不降的原因是这个！</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3532831849818465\">@许亚鑫</a>图表1. 降息对于全市场的影响或包含方方面面借贷成本降低：银行和其他金融机构的贷款利率可能会下降，个人和企业更容易以较低的成本获得贷款。刺激消费和投资：较低的借贷成本鼓励个人和企业增加消费和投资，进而或促进经济增长。储蓄收益减少：降息可能会降低储蓄账户和定期存款的利率，这意味着储蓄的回报可能会减少。债券价格和收益率变动：新发行的债券的利率会更低，现有债券相对更有吸引力预期债券价格上涨。货币价值变动：如果一个国家的利率下降，那么其货币可能会相对于其他国家的货币贬值，这可能会影响出口和进口的成本。股市波动：降息后，企业可以以较低的成本融资，可能会提高公司的盈利预期，这可能会推动股市上涨。然而，当市场已经预期到降息，那么实际降息时股市的反应可能会有限。大宗商品：随着投资","text":"9月18日，美联储预期将迎来新一轮的降息周期，9月的美股市场萦绕在高波动的预期环境中。根据Trading Economics的数据，预计2024年美国联邦基金利率将在4.75%左右，2025年将在3.75%左右。透社调查的经济学家中，绝大多数表示，美联储将在 2024 年剩余的三次会议上每次降息 25 个基点。推荐阅读>>美联储降息路径与降息交易分析 @美股解毒师通胀只是加息与降息的借口，这一轮美联储不得不降的原因是这个！ @许亚鑫图表1. 降息对于全市场的影响或包含方方面面借贷成本降低：银行和其他金融机构的贷款利率可能会下降，个人和企业更容易以较低的成本获得贷款。刺激消费和投资：较低的借贷成本鼓励个人和企业增加消费和投资，进而或促进经济增长。储蓄收益减少：降息可能会降低储蓄账户和定期存款的利率，这意味着储蓄的回报可能会减少。债券价格和收益率变动：新发行的债券的利率会更低，现有债券相对更有吸引力预期债券价格上涨。货币价值变动：如果一个国家的利率下降，那么其货币可能会相对于其他国家的货币贬值，这可能会影响出口和进口的成本。股市波动：降息后，企业可以以较低的成本融资，可能会提高公司的盈利预期，这可能会推动股市上涨。然而，当市场已经预期到降息，那么实际降息时股市的反应可能会有限。大宗商品：随着投资","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62b96502db167200402936727ffda1c5","width":"1024","height":"1280"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07b66a2ae6cef70e685b4855a8dd28f7","width":"1080","height":"1710"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/767d2f4f4fb04af4e5f83f215eb48f0f","width":"1080","height":"1710"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/348846396080144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":246,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":347912700964864,"gmtCreate":1725961251264,"gmtModify":1726195227047,"author":{"id":"3481607711352696","authorId":"3481607711352696","name":"mala小龙虾","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fc9ab7153bc12433e7e0fa68e410243","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3481607711352696","idStr":"3481607711352696"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"在议息之前跌倒他说的位置也不是不可能，整个大盘整个九月波动太大了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\"> $台积电(TSM)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\"> $特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\"> $英伟达(NVDA)$ </a>","listText":"在议息之前跌倒他说的位置也不是不可能，整个大盘整个九月波动太大了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\"> $台积电(TSM)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\"> $特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\"> $英伟达(NVDA)$ </a>","text":"在议息之前跌倒他说的位置也不是不可能，整个大盘整个九月波动太大了 $台积电(TSM)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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\n \n  现在包括高盛等大行都发话说美国9月肯定会降息，降息周期下，股票到底是涨，还是跌？8月 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 截止周四收盘，月度上涨，9月股市会回调还是继续上涨呢？评论区分享你的观点或操作，一起瓜分1000虎币奖励！\n \n","listText":"现在包括高盛等大行都发话说美国9月肯定会降息，降息周期下，股票到底是涨，还是跌？8月 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 截止周四收盘，月度上涨，9月股市会回调还是继续上涨呢？评论区分享你的观点或操作，一起瓜分1000虎币奖励！","text":"现在包括高盛等大行都发话说美国9月肯定会降息，降息周期下，股票到底是涨，还是跌？8月 $标普500(.SPX)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IWM\"> $罗素2000指数ETF(IWM)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\"> $微软(MSFT)$ </a>","listText":"不要操作，空仓，等巨头们发完财报，等大盘稳，等vix稳定往下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/IWM 20241018 220.0 CALL\"> $IWM 20241018 220.0 CALL$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IWM\"> $罗素2000指数ETF(IWM)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\"> $微软(MSFT)$ </a>","text":"不要操作，空仓，等巨头们发完财报，等大盘稳，等vix稳定往下 $IWM 20241018 220.0 CALL$ $罗素2000指数ETF(IWM)$ 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，就足够让你赚得盆满钵满，作为小白的我之前根本没有这些概念，我是不断的为它们感到惊讶，真是神奇，但是背后肯定是有很多东西在支撑着它，什么股票回购，美联储降息3把，贸易关税趋势的缓解，公司企业盈利的稳定，经济数据向好带动股市走高，特朗普更是功不可没，他是坚决不要美股跌的，关键是美股投资者这个结构它90%以上就是机构来的，换手率低于A股，风格都是稳健妥妥的，从而有了现在年底的芝麻开花，可就是这样，我的账户还是亏损的很厉害，上次财报季更是连着打肿脸，现在还没好。 年初的时候我还在brilliance ，那时候过完年A股从2440飙到最高的3100，消费，5G通讯，券商等板块迎来了一波小牛牛，我没有A股的账户，有也早忘记密码，那时候是在大学做兼职拿我的身份证开户，记得一下开了七八个，但是之前也没想到以后会用上。在支付宝埋伏了一些基金，股票类型的，券商和白酒消费，后来四月份没走，回撤了一些，倒是也不后悔。现在年底回过头来看，有几个基金拿到20%就走了，后面涨到百分之40到70的，A股那震荡行情，我真是拿不住，所以没往里面折腾。仔细看了看，在支付宝里那些个基金，上证3000以下可以随便的","listText":"讲真，陆陆续续看完各位虎友大仙们2019年的投资复盘，不管盈利还是亏损，大家都一一道出了自己的故事，各有千秋，受益良多吧，另外个人觉得老虎社区运营的那些个帅哥美女在后台的付出是非常值得称赞的，有写文章的，有送礼物的，有维护运营社区，有爱发消息的，还有的可能就是不知道在干嘛的，这么一个部门还是挺有意思，搞得我都想辞掉邮轮公司的工作来跟他们混，就是不知道还要不要人，总之这不是一份求职简历，单凭每天的那些新闻消息和虎友们的互动，就足以让人涨知识脑洞大开了。 还是言归证券吧，2019美股大盘不断在创新高，标普500至今来涨超27%，更猛的是纳指涨幅为33.8%，道琼斯去到了21%，光是你买追踪这些指数的ETF ，就足够让你赚得盆满钵满，作为小白的我之前根本没有这些概念，我是不断的为它们感到惊讶，真是神奇，但是背后肯定是有很多东西在支撑着它，什么股票回购，美联储降息3把，贸易关税趋势的缓解，公司企业盈利的稳定，经济数据向好带动股市走高，特朗普更是功不可没，他是坚决不要美股跌的，关键是美股投资者这个结构它90%以上就是机构来的，换手率低于A股，风格都是稳健妥妥的，从而有了现在年底的芝麻开花，可就是这样，我的账户还是亏损的很厉害，上次财报季更是连着打肿脸，现在还没好。 年初的时候我还在brilliance ，那时候过完年A股从2440飙到最高的3100，消费，5G通讯，券商等板块迎来了一波小牛牛，我没有A股的账户，有也早忘记密码，那时候是在大学做兼职拿我的身份证开户，记得一下开了七八个，但是之前也没想到以后会用上。在支付宝埋伏了一些基金，股票类型的，券商和白酒消费，后来四月份没走，回撤了一些，倒是也不后悔。现在年底回过头来看，有几个基金拿到20%就走了，后面涨到百分之40到70的，A股那震荡行情，我真是拿不住，所以没往里面折腾。仔细看了看，在支付宝里那些个基金，上证3000以下可以随便的","text":"讲真，陆陆续续看完各位虎友大仙们2019年的投资复盘，不管盈利还是亏损，大家都一一道出了自己的故事，各有千秋，受益良多吧，另外个人觉得老虎社区运营的那些个帅哥美女在后台的付出是非常值得称赞的，有写文章的，有送礼物的，有维护运营社区，有爱发消息的，还有的可能就是不知道在干嘛的，这么一个部门还是挺有意思，搞得我都想辞掉邮轮公司的工作来跟他们混，就是不知道还要不要人，总之这不是一份求职简历，单凭每天的那些新闻消息和虎友们的互动，就足以让人涨知识脑洞大开了。 还是言归证券吧，2019美股大盘不断在创新高，标普500至今来涨超27%，更猛的是纳指涨幅为33.8%，道琼斯去到了21%，光是你买追踪这些指数的ETF ，就足够让你赚得盆满钵满，作为小白的我之前根本没有这些概念，我是不断的为它们感到惊讶，真是神奇，但是背后肯定是有很多东西在支撑着它，什么股票回购，美联储降息3把，贸易关税趋势的缓解，公司企业盈利的稳定，经济数据向好带动股市走高，特朗普更是功不可没，他是坚决不要美股跌的，关键是美股投资者这个结构它90%以上就是机构来的，换手率低于A股，风格都是稳健妥妥的，从而有了现在年底的芝麻开花，可就是这样，我的账户还是亏损的很厉害，上次财报季更是连着打肿脸，现在还没好。 年初的时候我还在brilliance 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记得那会儿从简书看到老虎证券的，因为听到收益比国内A股高，后来自己开了户入了3000美金，我也不知道哪来这么大胆子，就开始交易了。第一只股票就是阿里巴巴，后来陌陌，好未来，京东什么的，左右倒腾带上杠杠不到一个月，赚了七八百美金，就知道低买高卖，顿时觉得牛批了，那会儿虎牙爱奇艺bili上市暴涨的那段时间，也没少赚，我一直都有个问题，是不是新手都这样，刚开始都是赚钱的，内心有点小膨胀。觉得自己可以搞出点名堂，并没有丝毫说，要敬畏市场的意思。 下面一些都是我挫折失败的经历，成功的炒股结果也有一半，我也就不一一分享。 港股：有一天看到社区的推荐股票，一只港股已经涨超110%了，头脑一热就跟进去了，亏损几千港币出来，我都不知道怎么亏的，我就是这样被割的韭菜，现在那只仙股价格只剩下不到0.1，真是好险。 后面我又入了点金，买了一手$腾讯控股(00700)$ ，好家伙，一买就涨，一度涨到378左右，手中已经是1000 港币的浮盈，却舍不得走，想着下周一应该还能涨。不知道大家是否记得腾讯南非那个股东抛售股份的时候，周一开盘上来直接掉到400，顿时账户从浮盈到浮亏8000港币，我想着股王嘛😄，应该要不了多久能涨回来，确实当时半个月反弹到430就应该割了，后来到380才割，损失了将近10000 港币。 也是因为想要打新$小米集团-W(01810)$ 。大伙儿都说年轻人的第一只股票都被小米套的死死的，我也不例外，我打新了一手小米，中签率100%，后来到20的时候卖出，落袋为安了。你们","listText":"18年2月底我开始的炒股票，之前也就是在支付宝买些基金，我是一个彻彻底底的韭菜从我进入股市，而且还是美港股，我什么都还不懂，但就是有一种初生牛犊不怕虎的劲儿，就跟当时大学毕业后只身一人飞往美国，自己在邮轮公司，如今是第四年，应该也是最后一年，跟着船赚钱和旅行，差不多了就回国稳定，但是炒美港股这事儿，我觉得永远没完。 记得那会儿从简书看到老虎证券的，因为听到收益比国内A股高，后来自己开了户入了3000美金，我也不知道哪来这么大胆子，就开始交易了。第一只股票就是阿里巴巴，后来陌陌，好未来，京东什么的，左右倒腾带上杠杠不到一个月，赚了七八百美金，就知道低买高卖，顿时觉得牛批了，那会儿虎牙爱奇艺bili上市暴涨的那段时间，也没少赚，我一直都有个问题，是不是新手都这样，刚开始都是赚钱的，内心有点小膨胀。觉得自己可以搞出点名堂，并没有丝毫说，要敬畏市场的意思。 下面一些都是我挫折失败的经历，成功的炒股结果也有一半，我也就不一一分享。 港股：有一天看到社区的推荐股票，一只港股已经涨超110%了，头脑一热就跟进去了，亏损几千港币出来，我都不知道怎么亏的，我就是这样被割的韭菜，现在那只仙股价格只剩下不到0.1，真是好险。 后面我又入了点金，买了一手$腾讯控股(00700)$ ，好家伙，一买就涨，一度涨到378左右，手中已经是1000 港币的浮盈，却舍不得走，想着下周一应该还能涨。不知道大家是否记得腾讯南非那个股东抛售股份的时候，周一开盘上来直接掉到400，顿时账户从浮盈到浮亏8000港币，我想着股王嘛😄，应该要不了多久能涨回来，确实当时半个月反弹到430就应该割了，后来到380才割，损失了将近10000 港币。 也是因为想要打新$小米集团-W(01810)$ 。大伙儿都说年轻人的第一只股票都被小米套的死死的，我也不例外，我打新了一手小米，中签率100%，后来到20的时候卖出，落袋为安了。你们","text":"18年2月底我开始的炒股票，之前也就是在支付宝买些基金，我是一个彻彻底底的韭菜从我进入股市，而且还是美港股，我什么都还不懂，但就是有一种初生牛犊不怕虎的劲儿，就跟当时大学毕业后只身一人飞往美国，自己在邮轮公司，如今是第四年，应该也是最后一年，跟着船赚钱和旅行，差不多了就回国稳定，但是炒美港股这事儿，我觉得永远没完。 记得那会儿从简书看到老虎证券的，因为听到收益比国内A股高，后来自己开了户入了3000美金，我也不知道哪来这么大胆子，就开始交易了。第一只股票就是阿里巴巴，后来陌陌，好未来，京东什么的，左右倒腾带上杠杠不到一个月，赚了七八百美金，就知道低买高卖，顿时觉得牛批了，那会儿虎牙爱奇艺bili上市暴涨的那段时间，也没少赚，我一直都有个问题，是不是新手都这样，刚开始都是赚钱的，内心有点小膨胀。觉得自己可以搞出点名堂，并没有丝毫说，要敬畏市场的意思。 下面一些都是我挫折失败的经历，成功的炒股结果也有一半，我也就不一一分享。 港股：有一天看到社区的推荐股票，一只港股已经涨超110%了，头脑一热就跟进去了，亏损几千港币出来，我都不知道怎么亏的，我就是这样被割的韭菜，现在那只仙股价格只剩下不到0.1，真是好险。 后面我又入了点金，买了一手$腾讯控股(00700)$ ，好家伙，一买就涨，一度涨到378左右，手中已经是1000 港币的浮盈，却舍不得走，想着下周一应该还能涨。不知道大家是否记得腾讯南非那个股东抛售股份的时候，周一开盘上来直接掉到400，顿时账户从浮盈到浮亏8000港币，我想着股王嘛😄，应该要不了多久能涨回来，确实当时半个月反弹到430就应该割了，后来到380才割，损失了将近10000 港币。 也是因为想要打新$小米集团-W(01810)$ 。大伙儿都说年轻人的第一只股票都被小米套的死死的，我也不例外，我打新了一手小米，中签率100%，后来到20的时候卖出，落袋为安了。你们","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41e4ba34361716133e6db2c6e32fef98"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d1d052cdebf8edf9efe30d1a7ff339f"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09e18e6f5c464da9dab02c1cf311bba"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":68,"commentSize":78,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/939228665","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25919,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3510558082622800","authorId":"3510558082622800","name":"胖虎哒哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b95d9326c02813b7b87ba8c1eccb5a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3510558082622800","authorIdStr":"3510558082622800"},"content":"很丰富的经历 [贱笑] [贱笑]不知道前女友是个什么故事 [抠鼻]","text":"很丰富的经历 [贱笑] [贱笑]不知道前女友是个什么故事 [抠鼻]","html":"很丰富的经历 [贱笑] [贱笑]不知道前女友是个什么故事 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其次呢就是那杀千刀的侥幸心理，总以为还能涨点，总之不到那个点位不见兔子不撒鹰，到后来是从盈利模式变成亏损，不得不忍痛割肉。每次自己感觉良好的时候就开始转势了，自己其实意识到了，行动慢半拍像是被牵制了一样，那种像走又不想走的那种心情，你懂的，一旦是没做好风控，亏钱就变得轻而易举。想着稳中求胜才是最妥的，盈利回吐可以有发生但是不应该是连本带利都带走，失误，有差错，并不可怕，糟糕的是你深陷其中，在坑里还自我感觉良好。松弛有度最好，节省下T 0，梳理一下，也就是你们常说的复盘，总得学习学习吧！ 十五天的航程，从巴塞罗那到美国的坦帕，下面附图一把，那会儿上夜班出去玩腻了，消费都是欧元还贵，干脆中午休息我就出来打篮球，船离开港口的那二三分钟是最美的，你看着船在动，但你知道下次你还能再回来。 加勒比挺会选择航线的，从七月份回船经历北欧，波罗的海等周边国家小岛再到这次横渡大西洋回美国，11月的","listText":"我的金九银十算是完了，我说的完了不是单单指的时间上，财报季度本来是有一个不错的收获，但是由于自己觉得理所当然的种种原因，又回到了起跑线，下面是自己在交易当中遇到的心理问题。 首先，回撤太大，这是由于自己不及时止损止盈，造成的大到我简直无法原谅自己，这样直接影响了个人情绪和交易心态，心态不好直接是要崩的。这个季度财报，特斯拉，奈飞，高盛，AND，阿莱技术公司，roku，我都有参与，亏的小亏，大的大盈，本来说是可以的，很漂亮的一份成绩，自己后面不怎么冷静，一连接几个飞刀，接了之后还不知道扒出来，简直蠢得死。 自己交易有很多问题，从选股，选期权价格，控制T➕0，再到止盈止损，可就是偏偏心气太高，你忘了市场它时刻变化，煮熟的鸭子你不吃隔一个晚上它就飞走了，你后悔也来不及，本来这二个月一边上班一边做交易就不容易，本想着自己能够慢慢实现账户资产的慢慢增长，扭亏为盈，怪自己没能让它们落袋为安，我只能面壁思过去吧！ 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