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RayLeee
2021-07-09

Are Treasury yields sniffing out a Fed mistake?: At the Open

The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten this morning and that's bringing some selling in equit

Are Treasury yields sniffing out a Fed mistake?: At the Open

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By July the Fed was back to cutting rates.\"</li>\n</ol>\n<ul>\n <li>The problem with the Fed mistake theory is that equity markets are holding up fine, DataTrek says.</li>\n <li>\"Maybe that’s because Q2 earnings season should be excellent, and investors feel they can be patient,\" they say. \"Or maybe it’s just the seasonal volatility factors ... which favor lower vol (and stable stock prices) during the first part of July.\"</li>\n <li>Further complicating matters is the employment situation, according to Avalon Advisors Chief Economist Samuel Rines.</li>\n <li>The ISM services employment index \"fell off a cliff to the point of indicating employees were being shed not added,\" Rines notes.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d116ea75facfc4680b144c1fa4e4e364\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<ul>\n <li>\"The employment picture painted from the ISM surveys is difficult to square with a booming economy,\" he writes. \"There is increasing uncertainty in the outlook for employment, and therefore Fed policy.\"</li>\n <li>\"With the escalating uncertainty around the employment picture, there should be an increase in fear of a Fed policy error. If the Fed becomes increasingly concerned about inflation, it could tighten policy early. Tightening policy before the labor market healed properly would certainly tame inflation pressures. But it would likely do so at the cost of employment.\"</li>\n <li>For its part, DataTrek leans more to the explanation for the drop in yields of a modest growth scare that's obscured by the S&amp;P 500 due to its Big Tech overweight.</li>\n <li>But they see evidence in: dollar index(USDOLLAR)up 3.2% since June 1, MSCI Emerging Markets(NYSEARCA:EEM)down 4.1% since June, Russell 2000(NYSEARCA:IWM)down 0.5% since June 1, German bund yields at -0.3% vs. -0.11% in mid-May and Japanese 10-year at 0.04% vs. 0.09% at end of May.</li>\n</ul>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are Treasury yields sniffing out a Fed mistake?: At the Open</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre Treasury yields sniffing out a Fed mistake?: At the Open\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-08 22:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/news/3713572-are-treasury-yields-sniffing-out-a-fed-mistake><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten this morning and that's bringing some selling in equities ascracks in the consensus of strong economic growth start to show.\nThe 10-year yield is down 4 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3713572-are-treasury-yields-sniffing-out-a-fed-mistake\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3713572-are-treasury-yields-sniffing-out-a-fed-mistake","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1190124335","content_text":"The Treasury yield curve continues to flatten this morning and that's bringing some selling in equities ascracks in the consensus of strong economic growth start to show.\nThe 10-year yield is down 4 basis points to 1.28% and the 30-year is down 5 basis points to 1.89%(NYSEARCA:TBT)(NASDAQ:TLT).\nS&P futures(SPX)(NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq 100 futures(NDX:IND)(NASDAQ:QQQ)and Dow futures(INDU)(NYSEARCA:DIA)are all down around 1.4%.\nCredit Suisse Chief Equity Strategist Jonathan Golub, says there's an equal chance the 10-year ends the year at 1% as 2%, but if it's closer to 1% the stock market will be weaker.\n\"Higher rates are an indication that demand for capital is rising, it's a sign the economy is strong,\" he said on Bloomberg.\n\"The reason the market is selling off today is because people ask the question 'what the heck is wrong that interest rates are falling when the economy is supposed to be so strong?'\"\nDataTrek Research notes that along with the drop in yields, fed funds futures have repriced rate-rise expectations, now predicting just a small chance of a hike next year.\n\n\n\n\"It is tempting to say that the Treasury/Fed Funds Futures markets are starting to sniff out a Fed policy mistake, namely their intention to start increasing rates in the next 18-24 months,\" DataTrek writes.\nThey note a similar situation in November to December 2018.\n\n\nFrom Nov. 8, 2018 to Jan. 3, 2019 the 10-year fell from 3.24% to 2.56%.\nThrough 2017 and 2018 the Fed had boosted rates to 2.4%.\n\"Their guidance was for 2 more 25-basis point increases in 2019, but after equity markets cracked in December 2018 (S&P 500 -9.8 pct) Chair Powell came out on January 6th, 2019 and shifted to a wait and see mode. By July the Fed was back to cutting rates.\"\n\n\nThe problem with the Fed mistake theory is that equity markets are holding up fine, DataTrek says.\n\"Maybe that’s because Q2 earnings season should be excellent, and investors feel they can be patient,\" they say. \"Or maybe it’s just the seasonal volatility factors ... which favor lower vol (and stable stock prices) during the first part of July.\"\nFurther complicating matters is the employment situation, according to Avalon Advisors Chief Economist Samuel Rines.\nThe ISM services employment index \"fell off a cliff to the point of indicating employees were being shed not added,\" Rines notes.\n\n\n\n\"The employment picture painted from the ISM surveys is difficult to square with a booming economy,\" he writes. \"There is increasing uncertainty in the outlook for employment, and therefore Fed policy.\"\n\"With the escalating uncertainty around the employment picture, there should be an increase in fear of a Fed policy error. If the Fed becomes increasingly concerned about inflation, it could tighten policy early. Tightening policy before the labor market healed properly would certainly tame inflation pressures. But it would likely do so at the cost of employment.\"\nFor its part, DataTrek leans more to the explanation for the drop in yields of a modest growth scare that's obscured by the S&P 500 due to its Big Tech overweight.\nBut they see evidence in: dollar index(USDOLLAR)up 3.2% since June 1, MSCI Emerging Markets(NYSEARCA:EEM)down 4.1% since June, Russell 2000(NYSEARCA:IWM)down 0.5% since June 1, German bund yields at -0.3% vs. -0.11% in mid-May and Japanese 10-year at 0.04% vs. 0.09% at end of May.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14,"commentLimit":10,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"symbols":[],"verified":2,"subType":0,"readableState":1,"langContent":"EN","currentLanguage":"EN","warmUpFlag":false,"orderFlag":false,"shareable":true,"causeOfNotShareable":"","featuresForAnalytics":[],"commentAndTweetFlag":false,"upFlag":false,"length":4,"xxTargetLangEnum":"ORIG"},"commentList":[],"hasMoreComment":false,"orderType":2}

Are Treasury yields sniffing out a Fed mistake?: At the Open

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