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- Lip_Lip_
  ·2022-07-17
  小白杏超好吃的
  一年只卖20天的新疆小白杏，在每日优鲜又火了
  一年只卖20来天的新疆小白杏，在每日优鲜平台上又火了。自6月中旬上线以来，这款有着“白色蜂蜜”之称的甜杏便凭借着甜而耐嚼、甘味悠长的口感，在瓜果飘香的季节以“小众水果”的姿态稳居水果销售热榜中的TOP
  一年只卖20天的新疆小白杏，在每日优鲜又火了
  942 评论
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- Lip_Lip_
  ·2022-05-13
  收藏
  Dingdong, Missfresh Surge on Booming Business During Covid Lockdowns
  It’s not often that we write about companies purely based on big stock movements with no company-spe
  Dingdong, Missfresh Surge on Booming Business During Covid Lockdowns
  1,004 评论
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- Lip_Lip_
  ·2022-05-13
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  MissFresh Triples its Stock and Accelerates the Delivery Efforts to Meet Increasing Consumer Demand
  BEIJING,April 26, 2022/PRNewswire/ -- After some of COVID cases inBeijingand mass COVID-19 testing i
  MissFresh Triples its Stock and Accelerates the Delivery Efforts to Meet Increasing Consumer Demand
  819 评论
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- Lip_Lip_
  ·2021-12-06
  这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
  2021 was the year of the metaverse, but it will be years before it's a reality
  Big Tech wants to sell you on the metaverse, but don’t hold your breath. If there’s one buzzword the
  2021 was the year of the metaverse, but it will be years before it's a reality
  831 评论
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- Lip_Lip_
  ·2020-03-25
  我觉得写的真的很客观了
  什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌
  隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）图片来源：Wind 第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市
  什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌
  939 评论
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- Lip_Lip_
  ·2020-03-24
  空军真强大
  中金梁红：经济可能比预想的糟，中国GDP或降至2.6%
  梁红是国内最具有国际视野的宏观分析师。
  中金梁红：经济可能比预想的糟，中国GDP或降至2.6%
  1,103 1
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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一年只卖20天的新疆小白杏，在每日优鲜又火了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-01 15:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8HIFXDD1zsQ><strong>凤凰网财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一年只卖20来天的新疆小白杏，在每日优鲜平台上又火了。自6月中旬上线以来，这款有着“白色蜂蜜”之称的甜杏便凭借着甜而耐嚼、甘味悠长的口感，在瓜果飘香的季节以“小众水果”的姿态稳居水果销售热榜中的TOP3。作为每日优鲜产地直采模式下的又一成功案例，新疆小白杏上线数年以来俘获了其平台上一众用户的喜爱。近年来，每日优鲜在新疆库车的小白杏产地直采规模也已经达到了近1000亩。“库车光热资源丰富、昼夜温差大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8HIFXDD1zsQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MF":"每日优鲜"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8HIFXDD1zsQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/c960c7f4c0092beb709d7c2cf507bdee","article_id":"1185007775","content_text":"一年只卖20来天的新疆小白杏，在每日优鲜平台上又火了。自6月中旬上线以来，这款有着“白色蜂蜜”之称的甜杏便凭借着甜而耐嚼、甘味悠长的口感，在瓜果飘香的季节以“小众水果”的姿态稳居水果销售热榜中的TOP3。作为每日优鲜产地直采模式下的又一成功案例，新疆小白杏上线数年以来俘获了其平台上一众用户的喜爱。近年来，每日优鲜在新疆库车的小白杏产地直采规模也已经达到了近1000亩。“库车光热资源丰富、昼夜温差大，小白杏树能够长期汲取天山的雪水，因此这里所产的小白杏比别处更甜。”每日优鲜水果业务负责人介绍到，小白杏果实在每年6月中下旬至7月中旬成熟，虽然赏味期短暂，但却并不影响它的热销。刚刚过去的“6·18购物节”里，新疆小白杏在每日优鲜平台上的销量增长了近5倍。作为中国甜杏天花板，新疆小白杏含糖量高、含酸低、风味浓郁、汁多味鲜，是优良的鲜食和加工用品种。因此，既可洗净即食，也可制作成果脯，延长甜蜜时刻，还可酿制成杏子酒，酒香更是扑鼻。为了保证小白杏最佳的品相和口感，每日优鲜对新疆小白杏的运输、存储和品控等方面都有相当高的要求。在产地直采模式之下，新疆小白杏从田间地头现场发运，并采用定制包装材料，全程冷藏，存储温度必须达到0-10℃、湿度必须达到85%-90%。在小白杏运输至大仓后，每日优鲜不仅会组织专业团队对小白杏的糖度、成熟度、新鲜度和单果重等指标进行检测，比如外形必须光洁、果肉必须黄中透白、糖度大于14°、单克果重在10g以上，而且小白杏还需送至优鲜实验室快检，达到有机磷和氨基甲酸酯类抑制率小于50%等标准。“产地直采之下，小白杏的流通链路得到了极大地缩短，不仅新鲜程度得到了保证，而且采购和流通成本也大大降低。”上述负责人表示，近年来，每日优鲜平台上以小白杏为代表的产地直采水果成本优化了近20个百分点。如今，新疆小白杏已成为库车当地的支柱产业和农民收入的主要来源。作为国内优质的社区零售平台，每日优鲜近年来一直助力新疆各地农产品的上行。除新疆小白杏以外，库尔勒香梨、阿克苏苹果均在每日优鲜平台上取得了不俗的“战绩”。比如每日优鲜在2017年成为国内首家上线正宗库尔勒香梨的生鲜电商后，仅在2020年便销售了近1000万颗库尔勒香梨，带动了群众增收致富、助推乡村振兴。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612429583,"gmtCreate":1652457030842,"gmtModify":1652457030842,"author":{"id":"3542430743889117","authorId":"3542430743889117","name":"Lip_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e120e9c1447ba9fa1ccce9f6da51b6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542430743889117","authorIdStr":"3542430743889117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收藏","listText":"收藏","text":"收藏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612429583","repostId":"1194920090","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1194920090","pubTimestamp":1649329525,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194920090?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-07 19:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Dingdong, Missfresh Surge on Booming Business During Covid Lockdowns","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194920090","media":"benzinga","summary":"It’s not often that we write about companies purely based on big stock movements with no company-spe","content":"<p>It’s not often that we write about companies purely based on big stock movements with no company-specific news in the headlines. But we’ll break with that tradition today with a look at leading online grocers&nbsp;<b>Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd.</b>&nbsp;</p><p>DDL-0.74%+ Free Alertsand&nbsp;<b>Missfresh Ltd.</b>&nbsp;MF+ Free Alerts, whose shares both notched significant gains on Tuesday.</p><p>While there was no company-specific news from either, the bigger story, of course, is the latest Covid wave surging through China with the arrival of the highly contagious Omicron variant. That surge has prompted a complete lockdown in Shanghai, China’s financial center and largest city with a population of 26 million, that looks set to last at least a couple of weeks.</p><p>But Shanghai isn’t the only place experiencing a citywide lockdown. The southern boomtown of Shenzhen and northwestern city of Xi’an, capital of Shaanxi province, also experienced previous similar citywide lockdowns that have now ended. And like Shanghai, the northeastern city of Changchun, capital of Jilin province, remains in complete lockdown as well.</p><p>In fact, this commentary is coming to you from Shanghai, where the author has been confined to his home for nearly a week, with at least another week or two likely. A Reuters report this week, citing a Nomura research note, said 23 Chinese cities are currently under total or partial lockdown, with nearly 200 million people affected.</p><p>That means there are 200 million people – roughly 14% of China’s population – who must use online channels to get their daily necessities, led by food. That’s the most likely explanation for a rally that saw Dingdong’s shares surge 46% on Tuesday, while Missfresh rose by 14%. Both stocks are up sharply from all-time lows reached just last month, amid a broader rally for U.S.-listed Chinese shares as fears of forced delistings for the group related to U.S.-China tensions&nbsp;<b>start to ease</b>.</p><p>Dingdong’s bigger increase appears tied to its base in Shanghai, at the hub of China’s affluent Yangtze River Delta region and now also the epicenter of the country’s worst outbreak since the pandemic began. Shanghai has been reporting more than 13,000 new cases daily in recent days, the vast majority of them asymptomatic. But due to the country’s strict “zero-Covid” policy, the numbers – small by global standards – have prompted an entire citywide lockdown.</p><p>Dingdong finds itself at the center of what’s probably the world’s largest citywide lockdown since the pandemic began. The company began its current business in Shanghai in 2017, and has been expanding to other areas since then. Its delivery drivers, with their trademark green pouches on the back of their scooters, are a regular fixture throughout the city.</p><p>By comparison, Missfresh is based in Beijing, China’s other megacity, which is currently home to much smaller lockdowns limited to individual residential complexes when new cases are confirmed. Both companies have expanded beyond their initial home bases, though each still counts their city of origin among their strongest markets.</p><p><b>Surging demand</b></p><p>Both companies saw orders surge when the pandemic first began in the first half of 2020, as people largely remained confined to their homes on a more voluntary basis. Many people started buying groceries online at that time, and became fans of the business even after conditions returned to more normal levels due to the convenience and lower prices than those charged in traditional supermarkets and wet markets.</p><p>The latest lockdowns are likely to further reinforce that habit, perhaps even among the older generation that still often prefers to buy food in physical markets. That should play to the advantage of both Dingdong and Missfresh, as well as rival services offered by&nbsp;<b>Meituan</b>&nbsp;(3690.HK) and&nbsp;<b>Pinduoduo</b>&nbsp;</p><p>PDD+ Free Alerts, while working to the detriment of traditional supermarket operators like&nbsp;<b>Sun Art</b>&nbsp;(6808.HK) and&nbsp;<b>Yonghui</b>&nbsp;(601933.SH).</p><p></p><p>That may explain why analysts are quite bullish on both Dingdong and Missfresh. Six out of seven polled by Yahoo Finance rate Dingdong either a “buy” or “strong buy”, while the same is true for five out of seven analysts following Missfresh. Here we should note that the analyst community was already quite bullish on this pair of companies even before the current lockdowns, excited by the big growth potential for both.</p><p>Dingdong and Missfresh are China’s top direct grocery sellers, with Pinduoduo and Meituan using a different model that relies on third-parties to buy, warehouse and ultimately deliver goods to shoppers. Dingdong is the larger of the direct sellers, and noted in its last earnings report that its Shanghai business is currently operating profitably – a probable factor behind the Tuesday rally – even as the company continues to lose money on an overall basis.</p><p>“Shanghai is the first city we entered and has continued innovating and iterating, constructing precedents and experiences for our nationwide operations,” said CEO Liang Changlin in the company’s last earnings report. “We have found the path to profitability in this city and expect the whole Yangtze River Delta to be the next, and the whole company will follow suit soon.”</p><p>The company does not break out how much of its business comes from Shanghai in its quarterly reports, and did not disclose any figure in the prospectus from its IPO last year.</p><p>The smaller Missfresh is focusing more on higher-margin businesses like ready-made meals and premium private-label products to reach profitability. In the latest example of that, the company said last week that sales of its private label fresh food brand grew 300% in last year’s fourth quarter compared with the first quarter of the same year.</p><p>Missfresh is also trying to lower costs by cutting out middlemen from its operations, and currently sources more than 90% of its fresh produce and 80% of all products directly from their origins, much higher than an industry average of 55% in 2020.</p><p>Despite their bullish outlook, analysts don’t see either Dingdong or Missfresh becoming profitable this year or next. Investors are also somewhat reserved. Even after the one-day surge for its stock, Dingdong trades at a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 0.5, while Missfresh trades at 0.3. But both are still higher than U.S. prepared food delivery specialist&nbsp;<b>Blue Apron</b>&nbsp;(APRN.US), which trades at a P/S of just 0.2.</p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dingdong, Missfresh Surge on Booming Business During Covid Lockdowns</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDingdong, Missfresh Surge on Booming Business During Covid Lockdowns\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-07 19:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/04/26503635/dingdong-missfresh-surge-on-booming-business-during-covid-lockdowns><strong>benzinga</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It’s not often that we write about companies purely based on big stock movements with no company-specific news in the headlines. But we’ll break with that tradition today with a look at leading online...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/04/26503635/dingdong-missfresh-surge-on-booming-business-during-covid-lockdowns\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73edaf3c9a3e2c8f22359f6d18274d20","relate_stocks":{"MF":"每日优鲜"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/22/04/26503635/dingdong-missfresh-surge-on-booming-business-during-covid-lockdowns","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194920090","content_text":"It’s not often that we write about companies purely based on big stock movements with no company-specific news in the headlines. But we’ll break with that tradition today with a look at leading online grocers Dingdong (Cayman) Ltd. DDL-0.74%+ Free Alertsand Missfresh Ltd. MF+ Free Alerts, whose shares both notched significant gains on Tuesday.While there was no company-specific news from either, the bigger story, of course, is the latest Covid wave surging through China with the arrival of the highly contagious Omicron variant. That surge has prompted a complete lockdown in Shanghai, China’s financial center and largest city with a population of 26 million, that looks set to last at least a couple of weeks.But Shanghai isn’t the only place experiencing a citywide lockdown. The southern boomtown of Shenzhen and northwestern city of Xi’an, capital of Shaanxi province, also experienced previous similar citywide lockdowns that have now ended. And like Shanghai, the northeastern city of Changchun, capital of Jilin province, remains in complete lockdown as well.In fact, this commentary is coming to you from Shanghai, where the author has been confined to his home for nearly a week, with at least another week or two likely. A Reuters report this week, citing a Nomura research note, said 23 Chinese cities are currently under total or partial lockdown, with nearly 200 million people affected.That means there are 200 million people – roughly 14% of China’s population – who must use online channels to get their daily necessities, led by food. That’s the most likely explanation for a rally that saw Dingdong’s shares surge 46% on Tuesday, while Missfresh rose by 14%. Both stocks are up sharply from all-time lows reached just last month, amid a broader rally for U.S.-listed Chinese shares as fears of forced delistings for the group related to U.S.-China tensions start to ease.Dingdong’s bigger increase appears tied to its base in Shanghai, at the hub of China’s affluent Yangtze River Delta region and now also the epicenter of the country’s worst outbreak since the pandemic began. Shanghai has been reporting more than 13,000 new cases daily in recent days, the vast majority of them asymptomatic. But due to the country’s strict “zero-Covid” policy, the numbers – small by global standards – have prompted an entire citywide lockdown.Dingdong finds itself at the center of what’s probably the world’s largest citywide lockdown since the pandemic began. The company began its current business in Shanghai in 2017, and has been expanding to other areas since then. Its delivery drivers, with their trademark green pouches on the back of their scooters, are a regular fixture throughout the city.By comparison, Missfresh is based in Beijing, China’s other megacity, which is currently home to much smaller lockdowns limited to individual residential complexes when new cases are confirmed. Both companies have expanded beyond their initial home bases, though each still counts their city of origin among their strongest markets.Surging demandBoth companies saw orders surge when the pandemic first began in the first half of 2020, as people largely remained confined to their homes on a more voluntary basis. Many people started buying groceries online at that time, and became fans of the business even after conditions returned to more normal levels due to the convenience and lower prices than those charged in traditional supermarkets and wet markets.The latest lockdowns are likely to further reinforce that habit, perhaps even among the older generation that still often prefers to buy food in physical markets. That should play to the advantage of both Dingdong and Missfresh, as well as rival services offered by Meituan (3690.HK) and Pinduoduo PDD+ Free Alerts, while working to the detriment of traditional supermarket operators like Sun Art (6808.HK) and Yonghui (601933.SH).That may explain why analysts are quite bullish on both Dingdong and Missfresh. Six out of seven polled by Yahoo Finance rate Dingdong either a “buy” or “strong buy”, while the same is true for five out of seven analysts following Missfresh. Here we should note that the analyst community was already quite bullish on this pair of companies even before the current lockdowns, excited by the big growth potential for both.Dingdong and Missfresh are China’s top direct grocery sellers, with Pinduoduo and Meituan using a different model that relies on third-parties to buy, warehouse and ultimately deliver goods to shoppers. Dingdong is the larger of the direct sellers, and noted in its last earnings report that its Shanghai business is currently operating profitably – a probable factor behind the Tuesday rally – even as the company continues to lose money on an overall basis.“Shanghai is the first city we entered and has continued innovating and iterating, constructing precedents and experiences for our nationwide operations,” said CEO Liang Changlin in the company’s last earnings report. “We have found the path to profitability in this city and expect the whole Yangtze River Delta to be the next, and the whole company will follow suit soon.”The company does not break out how much of its business comes from Shanghai in its quarterly reports, and did not disclose any figure in the prospectus from its IPO last year.The smaller Missfresh is focusing more on higher-margin businesses like ready-made meals and premium private-label products to reach profitability. In the latest example of that, the company said last week that sales of its private label fresh food brand grew 300% in last year’s fourth quarter compared with the first quarter of the same year.Missfresh is also trying to lower costs by cutting out middlemen from its operations, and currently sources more than 90% of its fresh produce and 80% of all products directly from their origins, much higher than an industry average of 55% in 2020.Despite their bullish outlook, analysts don’t see either Dingdong or Missfresh becoming profitable this year or next. Investors are also somewhat reserved. Even after the one-day surge for its stock, Dingdong trades at a price-to-sales ratio (P/S) of 0.5, while Missfresh trades at 0.3. But both are still higher than U.S. prepared food delivery specialist Blue Apron (APRN.US), which trades at a P/S of just 0.2.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":612420851,"gmtCreate":1652456364473,"gmtModify":1652456364473,"author":{"id":"3542430743889117","authorId":"3542430743889117","name":"Lip_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e120e9c1447ba9fa1ccce9f6da51b6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542430743889117","authorIdStr":"3542430743889117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收藏","listText":"收藏","text":"收藏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612420851","repostId":"1192319728","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1192319728","pubTimestamp":1651030979,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192319728?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-27 11:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"MissFresh Triples its Stock and Accelerates the Delivery Efforts to Meet Increasing Consumer Demand","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192319728","media":"prnewswire","summary":"BEIJING,April 26, 2022/PRNewswire/ -- After some of COVID cases inBeijingand mass COVID-19 testing i","content":"<p>BEIJING,April 26, 2022/PRNewswire/ -- After some of COVID cases inBeijingand mass COVID-19 testing in most of the city, residents snapped up food and other suppliers with the fear of rising number of cases. Missfresh Limited (\"Missfresh\" or the \"Company\") (NASDAQ:MF), a pioneer inChina'sneighborhood retail industry, has tripled its stock volume to meet consumer demand during this challenging time.&nbsp; with more than 200 tons of \"essential for livelihood\" commodities such as meat, eggs, vegetables, and fruits, the Missfresh customers are able to access to fresh goods. In addition, the supplies of other non-perishable foods including oil, frozen foods and meats have also been expanded and stocked. For more than 20 stores in key areas, Missfresh is carrying out a second round of replenishment in the afternoon and will continue to increase shipment according to the consumer demand. The daily order volume onApril 24thandApril 25thincreased 6 times compared with the same period in the last week.</p><p>On the delivery side, the average daily volume reached more than 1.2 million pieces per day. The surge in orders, especially during the morning peak hours, has created challenges that could cause potential delays. To ensure timely delivery, all delivery employees are on duty and the order delivery time is extended to1:00 a.m.in the morning, and social transportation capacity are also allocated immediately.</p><p>In addition, to ensure the safety of personnel and goods during the delivery process, all delivery staffs have completed COVID vaccinations and have proof of 24-hour negative COVID results. Furthermore, the processing areas for packaging, warehousing, sorting and distribution of commodities are regularly disinfected and \"contactless distribution\" is strictly implemented.</p><p><b>About Missfresh Limited</b></p><p>Missfresh Limited is an innovator and leader inChina'sneighborhood retail industry. The Company invented the Distributed Mini Warehouse (DMW) model to operate an integrated online-and-offline on-demand retail business focusing on offering fresh produce and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs). Through the \"Missfresh\" mobile application and Mini Program embedded in third-party social platforms, consumers can easily purchase quality groceries at their fingertips and have the finest products delivered to their doorstep in 36 minutes, on average.</p><p>Leveraging its core capabilities, Missfresh launched an intelligent fresh market business in the second half of 2020. This innovative business model is dedicated to standardizing and transforming fresh markets into smart fresh malls. Missfresh has also built up a full stack of proprietary technologies that empower a wide range of participants in the neighborhood retail business, such as supermarkets, fresh markets and local retailers, to jumpstart and efficiently operate their businesses digitally.</p>","source":"prnewswire","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>MissFresh Triples its Stock and Accelerates the Delivery Efforts to Meet Increasing Consumer Demand</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMissFresh Triples its Stock and Accelerates the Delivery Efforts to Meet Increasing Consumer Demand\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-27 11:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/missfresh-triples-its-stock-and-accelerates-the-delivery-efforts-to-meet-increasing-consumer-demand-301532986.html><strong>prnewswire</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>BEIJING,April 26, 2022/PRNewswire/ -- After some of COVID cases inBeijingand mass COVID-19 testing in most of the city, residents snapped up food and other suppliers with the fear of rising number of ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/missfresh-triples-its-stock-and-accelerates-the-delivery-efforts-to-meet-increasing-consumer-demand-301532986.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73edaf3c9a3e2c8f22359f6d18274d20","relate_stocks":{"MF":"每日优鲜"},"source_url":"https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/missfresh-triples-its-stock-and-accelerates-the-delivery-efforts-to-meet-increasing-consumer-demand-301532986.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192319728","content_text":"BEIJING,April 26, 2022/PRNewswire/ -- After some of COVID cases inBeijingand mass COVID-19 testing in most of the city, residents snapped up food and other suppliers with the fear of rising number of cases. Missfresh Limited (\"Missfresh\" or the \"Company\") (NASDAQ:MF), a pioneer inChina'sneighborhood retail industry, has tripled its stock volume to meet consumer demand during this challenging time.  with more than 200 tons of \"essential for livelihood\" commodities such as meat, eggs, vegetables, and fruits, the Missfresh customers are able to access to fresh goods. In addition, the supplies of other non-perishable foods including oil, frozen foods and meats have also been expanded and stocked. For more than 20 stores in key areas, Missfresh is carrying out a second round of replenishment in the afternoon and will continue to increase shipment according to the consumer demand. The daily order volume onApril 24thandApril 25thincreased 6 times compared with the same period in the last week.On the delivery side, the average daily volume reached more than 1.2 million pieces per day. The surge in orders, especially during the morning peak hours, has created challenges that could cause potential delays. To ensure timely delivery, all delivery employees are on duty and the order delivery time is extended to1:00 a.m.in the morning, and social transportation capacity are also allocated immediately.In addition, to ensure the safety of personnel and goods during the delivery process, all delivery staffs have completed COVID vaccinations and have proof of 24-hour negative COVID results. Furthermore, the processing areas for packaging, warehousing, sorting and distribution of commodities are regularly disinfected and \"contactless distribution\" is strictly implemented.About Missfresh LimitedMissfresh Limited is an innovator and leader inChina'sneighborhood retail industry. The Company invented the Distributed Mini Warehouse (DMW) model to operate an integrated online-and-offline on-demand retail business focusing on offering fresh produce and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCGs). Through the \"Missfresh\" mobile application and Mini Program embedded in third-party social platforms, consumers can easily purchase quality groceries at their fingertips and have the finest products delivered to their doorstep in 36 minutes, on average.Leveraging its core capabilities, Missfresh launched an intelligent fresh market business in the second half of 2020. This innovative business model is dedicated to standardizing and transforming fresh markets into smart fresh malls. Missfresh has also built up a full stack of proprietary technologies that empower a wide range of participants in the neighborhood retail business, such as supermarkets, fresh markets and local retailers, to jumpstart and efficiently operate their businesses digitally.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":819,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608260009,"gmtCreate":1638749524490,"gmtModify":1638749524490,"author":{"id":"3542430743889117","authorId":"3542430743889117","name":"Lip_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e120e9c1447ba9fa1ccce9f6da51b6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542430743889117","authorIdStr":"3542430743889117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608260009","repostId":"2188690505","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2188690505","pubTimestamp":1638402719,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2188690505?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-02 07:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2021 was the year of the metaverse, but it will be years before it's a reality","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2188690505","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Big Tech wants to sell you on the metaverse, but don’t hold your breath.\nIf there’s one buzzword the","content":"<p><b>Big Tech wants to sell you on the metaverse, but don’t hold your breath.</b></p>\n<p>If there’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> buzzword the tech world couldn’t stop using in 2021, it was metaverse. Well, that and NFTs, but let’s talk about tech CEOs’ fixation on the metaverse.</p>\n<p>Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and, of course, Facebook (FB), er, Meta, each laid out elaborate plans this year for a new version of the internet, one that features 3-D online worlds where people can connect as if they were talking to each other in real life.</p>\n<p>To hear today’s CEOs talk about it, the metaverse will be the next evolution of the internet. Just as we went from chatting on message boards on chunky laptops to buying homes on our smartphones, tech leaders say, the metaverse will transform the way we use the web. We’re talking walking around a fully virtual world as if you were really there, or dropping in on colleagues to host a meeting thousands of miles away.</p>\n<p>If that’s all very sci-fi sounding, it’s because it is. To be sure, we’ve seen glimpses of the metaverse in the form of Microsoft’s upcoming Teams Mesh that lets you use a digital avatar in virtual meetings or Nvidia’s Omniverse, which helps teach AI-powered cars to drive.</p>\n<p>But the metaverse as tech visionaries describe it — where you can appear as a hologram in your friend’s special AR goggles and play tennis in real-time — is still years away from reality.</p>\n<h2><b>We’re witnessing an incredible advertising effort</b></h2>\n<p>Let’s start with the metaverse we’ve been promised so far. If you take Facebook, dang, force of habit, I mean Meta’s version of the metaverse, we’ll be able to fluidly transport ourselves across different virtual worlds. One minute you’re playing chess while floating several feet above the table; the next, you’re hanging ten with your friend on the open water.</p>\n<p>But Meta’s demonstration was more fantasy than true metaverse tech. It was a video meant to provide consumers, and investors, with a glimpse at what the company hopes to build.</p>\n<p>“It's going to take a lot of time,” explained Stanford University Jeremy Bailenson, who teaches a class completely in virtual reality. “We're not all going to be wearing headsets or glasses anytime soon.”</p>\n<p>Bailenson, whose students spent a collective 200,000 minutes in VR headsets in recent months, says nothing has truly changed in terms of the technology recently. Instead, what we’re seeing is a massive marketing campaign by companies that are hyped on the metaverse.</p>\n<h2><b>The technology is still in its infancy</b></h2>\n<p>The metaverse of Mark Zuckerberg’s dreams will require infrastructure that allows consumers to swiftly travel among 3-D worlds. We’re also going to need headgear that isn’t awful.</p>\n<p>I’ve used the majority of commercially available headsets, not to mention a few that are meant for industrial use, and they're all uncomfortable. If they’re not heavy, they don’t properly fit over glasses. Or they leave you sweating. What’s worse, if they’re not tethered to a high-end PC, which costs plenty on its own, they have short battery lives.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-11/7c01d6a0-3cc2-11ec-bfc5-4088a6081088\" tg-width=\"3017\" tg-height=\"1814\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Meta's next-generation headset, Cambria, will be able to read and understand users' facial expressions. (Image: Meta)Meta</span></p>\n<p>On top of that, the visual fidelity of your average headset is nowhere near that of, say, a 4K TV. Fine details are lost in the screen door effect caused by the fact that the headsets’ displays aren’t high enough resolution to perfectly blend each pixel together.</p>\n<p>Then there are the headaches and nausea that plague some headset users.</p>\n<p>And that’s just the headgear. For a fully immersive experience that tech companies are pitching, you’ll need to be able to feel pressure and resistance, which will require if not specialized gloves then some kind of ... suit?</p>\n<p>All of that is to say that, while consumers can have fun in VR headsets, we’re nowhere near experiencing the kind of incredible 3-D world you’d expect from the book “Ready Player One.”</p>\n<h2><b>The metaverse has promise</b></h2>\n<p>That’s not to knock the metaverse or its potential entirely. Bailenson’s class, for instance, is able to learn about therapeutic medicines and empathy for others by virtually walking in their shoes.</p>\n<p>Nvidia’s Omniverse, which the company positions as plumbing for the larger metaverse, has shown impressive promise by helping predict forest fires and serving as a test bed for the artificial intelligence that will eventually power the company’s self-driving car capabilities.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2021-11/919bdce0-40d7-11ec-bffb-ce6346beed4d\" tg-width=\"1600\" tg-height=\"900\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Nidia's is using its Omniverse and AI technologies to build out self-driving car capabilities. (Image: Nvidia)Nvidia</span></p>\n<p>Microsoft’s Teams Mesh, still in its early stages, could make it less stressful to join virtual meetings by letting you skip your webcam and use a digital avatar to chat with colleagues instead. Just imagine never having to comb your hair, or beard in my case, before a virtual meeting again.</p>\n<p>Roblox (RBLX) and Epic’s “Fortnite” have also laid the foundation for what early metaverses can offer, creating virtual worlds where users can spend time with friends and attend concerts together whether they’re separated by tens or thousands of miles.</p>\n<p>What we’re seeing is the very start of what could turn into the kind of metaverse Big Tech promises with its flashy advertising efforts and videos.</p>\n<p>But without grounding those wild dreams they’re pushing in some kind of reality, tech firms run the risk of alienating their own users, and turning the entire concept of the metaverse into a passing fad that never truly takes off.</p>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021 was the year of the metaverse, but it will be years before it's a reality</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021 was the year of the metaverse, but it will be years before it's a reality\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-02 07:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2021-was-the-year-of-the-metaverse-but-itll-take-years-before-its-a-reality-170559280.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Big Tech wants to sell you on the metaverse, but don’t hold your breath.\nIf there’s one buzzword the tech world couldn’t stop using in 2021, it was metaverse. Well, that and NFTs, but let’s talk about...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2021-was-the-year-of-the-metaverse-but-itll-take-years-before-its-a-reality-170559280.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4525":"远程办公概念","BK4524":"宅经济概念","BK4508":"社交媒体","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4538":"云计算","BK4543":"AI","RBLX":"Roblox Corporation","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4547":"WSB热门概念","BK4097":"系统软件","MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4565":"NFT概念","BK4529":"IDC概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4507":"流媒体概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2021-was-the-year-of-the-metaverse-but-itll-take-years-before-its-a-reality-170559280.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2188690505","content_text":"Big Tech wants to sell you on the metaverse, but don’t hold your breath.\nIf there’s one buzzword the tech world couldn’t stop using in 2021, it was metaverse. Well, that and NFTs, but let’s talk about tech CEOs’ fixation on the metaverse.\nMicrosoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and, of course, Facebook (FB), er, Meta, each laid out elaborate plans this year for a new version of the internet, one that features 3-D online worlds where people can connect as if they were talking to each other in real life.\nTo hear today’s CEOs talk about it, the metaverse will be the next evolution of the internet. Just as we went from chatting on message boards on chunky laptops to buying homes on our smartphones, tech leaders say, the metaverse will transform the way we use the web. We’re talking walking around a fully virtual world as if you were really there, or dropping in on colleagues to host a meeting thousands of miles away.\nIf that’s all very sci-fi sounding, it’s because it is. To be sure, we’ve seen glimpses of the metaverse in the form of Microsoft’s upcoming Teams Mesh that lets you use a digital avatar in virtual meetings or Nvidia’s Omniverse, which helps teach AI-powered cars to drive.\nBut the metaverse as tech visionaries describe it — where you can appear as a hologram in your friend’s special AR goggles and play tennis in real-time — is still years away from reality.\nWe’re witnessing an incredible advertising effort\nLet’s start with the metaverse we’ve been promised so far. If you take Facebook, dang, force of habit, I mean Meta’s version of the metaverse, we’ll be able to fluidly transport ourselves across different virtual worlds. One minute you’re playing chess while floating several feet above the table; the next, you’re hanging ten with your friend on the open water.\nBut Meta’s demonstration was more fantasy than true metaverse tech. It was a video meant to provide consumers, and investors, with a glimpse at what the company hopes to build.\n“It's going to take a lot of time,” explained Stanford University Jeremy Bailenson, who teaches a class completely in virtual reality. “We're not all going to be wearing headsets or glasses anytime soon.”\nBailenson, whose students spent a collective 200,000 minutes in VR headsets in recent months, says nothing has truly changed in terms of the technology recently. Instead, what we’re seeing is a massive marketing campaign by companies that are hyped on the metaverse.\nThe technology is still in its infancy\nThe metaverse of Mark Zuckerberg’s dreams will require infrastructure that allows consumers to swiftly travel among 3-D worlds. We’re also going to need headgear that isn’t awful.\nI’ve used the majority of commercially available headsets, not to mention a few that are meant for industrial use, and they're all uncomfortable. If they’re not heavy, they don’t properly fit over glasses. Or they leave you sweating. What’s worse, if they’re not tethered to a high-end PC, which costs plenty on its own, they have short battery lives.\nMeta's next-generation headset, Cambria, will be able to read and understand users' facial expressions. (Image: Meta)Meta\nOn top of that, the visual fidelity of your average headset is nowhere near that of, say, a 4K TV. Fine details are lost in the screen door effect caused by the fact that the headsets’ displays aren’t high enough resolution to perfectly blend each pixel together.\nThen there are the headaches and nausea that plague some headset users.\nAnd that’s just the headgear. For a fully immersive experience that tech companies are pitching, you’ll need to be able to feel pressure and resistance, which will require if not specialized gloves then some kind of ... suit?\nAll of that is to say that, while consumers can have fun in VR headsets, we’re nowhere near experiencing the kind of incredible 3-D world you’d expect from the book “Ready Player One.”\nThe metaverse has promise\nThat’s not to knock the metaverse or its potential entirely. Bailenson’s class, for instance, is able to learn about therapeutic medicines and empathy for others by virtually walking in their shoes.\nNvidia’s Omniverse, which the company positions as plumbing for the larger metaverse, has shown impressive promise by helping predict forest fires and serving as a test bed for the artificial intelligence that will eventually power the company’s self-driving car capabilities.\nNidia's is using its Omniverse and AI technologies to build out self-driving car capabilities. (Image: Nvidia)Nvidia\nMicrosoft’s Teams Mesh, still in its early stages, could make it less stressful to join virtual meetings by letting you skip your webcam and use a digital avatar to chat with colleagues instead. Just imagine never having to comb your hair, or beard in my case, before a virtual meeting again.\nRoblox (RBLX) and Epic’s “Fortnite” have also laid the foundation for what early metaverses can offer, creating virtual worlds where users can spend time with friends and attend concerts together whether they’re separated by tens or thousands of miles.\nWhat we’re seeing is the very start of what could turn into the kind of metaverse Big Tech promises with its flashy advertising efforts and videos.\nBut without grounding those wild dreams they’re pushing in some kind of reality, tech firms run the risk of alienating their own users, and turning the entire concept of the metaverse into a passing fad that never truly takes off.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920469781,"gmtCreate":1585109191243,"gmtModify":1704356937062,"author":{"id":"3542430743889117","authorId":"3542430743889117","name":"Lip_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e120e9c1447ba9fa1ccce9f6da51b6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542430743889117","authorIdStr":"3542430743889117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我觉得写的真的很客观了","listText":"我觉得写的真的很客观了","text":"我觉得写的真的很客观了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920469781","repostId":"1133028950","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133028950","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1585103808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133028950?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-25 10:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133028950","media":"格隆汇","summary":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）\n\n图片来源：Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市","content":"<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：</span></p>\n<p><span>（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；</span></p>\n<p><span>（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的，</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后，</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n什么样的反弹？才配得上这一波血泪俱下的暴跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-25 10:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ec50b6175c5fe4eab31b8cee8a464c9\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：</span></p>\n<p><span>（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；</span></p>\n<p><span>（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>但是更本质的，</span></b><span>在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌</span><span><b>到底</b></span><span>的征兆。</span></p>\n<p><span>比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），</span><span><b>即总跌幅接近50%之后，</b></span><span>出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd12f3b544929c23f2bbd0292a0b610d\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。</span><span><b>特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/927833396c5c931ec6d5ace7ca85e4fc\"></p>\n<p><span>2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1871b2350a20d635961c189284c4b1a\"></p>\n<p><span>1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><span>今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。</span><b>但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。</b></p>\n<p><span>无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在</span><span><b>大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹</b></span><span>，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a3aaa299190aac21b3655ef80591dc0\"></p>\n<p><span>图片来源：Wind</span></p>\n<p><b><span>举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。</span></b></p>\n<p><span>隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。</span></p>\n<p><span>摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。</span></p>\n<p><span>有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。</span></p>\n<p><span>我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，</span><span><b>美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万</b></span><span>。</span></p>\n<p><span>这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54a3044a6a75b6e0241e7c1615aff3a\"></p>\n<p><span>海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻</span></p>\n<p><span>时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。</span><span><b>总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。</span></b><span>一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a4572b675796b315e560ea7fe3401","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133028950","content_text":"隔夜见证美股两大奇迹，第一是美国三大指数暴力反弹，其中道琼斯指数创史上最大单日涨幅！（11.3%）\n\n图片来源：Wind\n第二个奇迹是此次疫情来讲，美国确诊人数已经超过5万人，美国确诊人数的增速比股市暴涨暴跌得剧烈程度不相上下。周末还是2万多，周一3万，周二4万，今天周三已经5万，统计还没结束。\n两者相比，一边是疫情在迅猛抬头，另一边股市在暴力反弹，这两者的背离也构成了隔夜行情的又一大奇迹。\n消息面上，这波反弹有两个因素：\n（1）美联储宣布的“无限制QE”终于起到效果了，流动性紧缩的预期出清，市场不再担心钱不够，只要钱不够就找美联储去要；\n（2）对于民共两党就刺激经济的政策达成一致的预期转向乐观。\n但是更本质的，在我看来还是由于此前剧烈下跌导致杠杆盘的大规模爆仓，下跌动能已经大幅度减弱。这往往是大盘见顶之后第一波下跌到底的征兆。\n比较1929年9月5日道琼斯指数见顶的局部行情，我们看到，道琼斯指数从381点在两个月之内跌破200点（11月12日），即总跌幅接近50%之后，出现过一波像模像样的反弹，从200点弹到300点附近，涨幅高达33%。\n\n1929年美股大盘见顶前后1年内的道琼斯指数行情，图片来源：Wind\n如果把今天道琼斯指数的走势和1929年放在一起的话，是可以高度重合的。特别是经过了上周三夜的暴力下跌，周四和周五两天底部震荡，累计跌幅也接近50%，这时任何利好消息都会刺激出剧烈的反弹。\n\n2020年3月美股大盘见顶的类似走势，数据来源：Wind\n但1929年而言，由于危机对经济的杀伤力太大，随后大盘震荡探底的过程持续了3年，直到1932年7月大底出现。这时道琼斯指数底部点位为41点，距离高点381点跌去89%。\n\n1929年美股见顶之后长达3年的持续熊市，图片来源：Wind\n今天的情形和1929年有很多不同，货币环境也不一样了，那时候是金本位，现在是美元体系，不可同日而语。但只是从下跌50%之后出现中尺度（30%左右）和中等时长（1到3个月）的反弹，是大概率事件。\n无独有偶，2015年7-8月A股的下跌，也是在大盘跌幅接近50%的位置附近出现了一次反弹，那次反弹从2015年8月27日开始，到12月28日结束，后随着熔断闹剧再次探底。\n\n图片来源：Wind\n举这些例子是想告诉大家，未来几个月内，少则一个月，长则三个月，会有一波像模像样的反弹。疫情造成的恐慌基本上已经出清了，接下来的利空，要等疫情对经济的实质性影响见到之后，股市才会再度下跌。\n隔夜这波反弹，美国政要和投行都爽了，开始煽风点火。例如大摩。\n摩根大通的Marko Kolanovic在给客户的一份报告中说，疫情可能很快会见顶，经济可能会在“数周内”重启，而标准普尔500指数可能在明年年初回到创纪录水平。\n有点数学常识的人都知道这哥们在胡咧咧。但是股市一涨，都开心，没人跟他计较。\n我们前几天的文章分析了，按照其他国家的规律，疫情每天新增确诊人数/确诊总人数的比例从20%降到10%需要10天左右的时间，而美国昨天的这个比例还高达30%，如果在10天内以线性方式从30%降到10%的话，美国10天后的确诊人数会高达16万。\n这里没有夸张成分，只是根据简单数学模型推算的结果。因此，大摩那个分析师说“很快见顶”纯属胡诌。\n\n海外疫情最新实况，图片来源：网易新闻\n时间不多了，亚洲时间要开盘了，关于无限QE的副作用、美元信仰体系崩塌这些我就不多扯了。总结起来，我对当前行情的看法是，反弹基本上已经成立，症结在于反弹的持续时间。短则一个月完事，长则三四个月也有可能。\n还有另一点，A股的反弹会比美股走得稳，但美股也许幅度上反弹得比A股剧烈。之前一波跌下来没抛的朋友可以稍微捡点便宜货摊薄成本，之前吓得清仓的朋友现在可以稍微买点了。\n还是那句话，熊市多暴涨，牛市多暴跌。一定要按照反弹的逻辑去操作，快进快出，把握好时间点，才不至于出大问题。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":920645631,"gmtCreate":1585024309523,"gmtModify":1704356584896,"author":{"id":"3542430743889117","authorId":"3542430743889117","name":"Lip_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43e120e9c1447ba9fa1ccce9f6da51b6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3542430743889117","authorIdStr":"3542430743889117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"空军真强大","listText":"空军真强大","text":"空军真强大","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/920645631","repostId":"2021583966","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2021583966","pubTimestamp":1585022820,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2021583966?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-24 12:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金梁红：经济可能比预想的糟，中国GDP或降至2.6%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2021583966","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"梁红是国内最具有国际视野的宏观分析师。","content":"<p><b>投资人记事</b></p><p>中金公司董事总经理梁红3月23日一则报告震惊市场：<b>她将2020年中国实际GDP增速预测从此前的6.1%下调至2.6%。</b></p><p>当日晚间，全球多个救市政策出台：美联储宣布广泛新措施来支持经济；德国政府批准规模7500亿欧元的刺激措施；中国央行表态支持为证金公司提供充足的流动性，以维护股市稳定。</p><p>中金公司于当晚召开电话会议，梁红参会，对经济和政策做解释和解读。</p><p>梁红提到：“美国这样的一个大资产市场上有这么高的杠杆，它以什么形式来把杠杆降下来，我们是不知道的，这个墙是比较危险的，大家可能安全系数要打的高一点，现在的风险可能在我们看来，有点低估的情况。”</p><p>梁红是国内最具有国际视野的宏观分析师。她早年曾供职于国际货币基金组织若干个亚洲国家代表处，后加入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>亚太区任首席经济学家，离开高盛后，加盟中金公司。</p><p><b>核心预测</b></p><p>下面是梁红在3月23日的最新研报中给出的10个核心预测：</p><p>1，近期，新冠疫情迅速在全球扩散升级、并已出现向金融市场“传染”的迹象。鉴于此，将2020年中国实际GDP增速预测从此前的6.1%下调至2.6%。</p><p>2，短期内，全球经济严重衰退的可能性明显上升，新冠疫情将对今年中国 GDP 造成约6个百分点的负面冲击。</p><p>3，2020年，中国出口同比可能大幅下跌18%左右，为拖累 2-4 季度增长的最主要因素，短期名义进口同比降幅可能更大、 达到 25%左右。</p><p>4，当前，新冠疫情在欧美快速扩散升级，且在部分亚洲地区出现“二次回升”。预计今年2季度的大部分时间内， 全球经济可能处于“暂停”状态。</p><p>5，海外疫情进入 “平台期”所需的时间可能长于中国、整个2季度的经济活动都将受到较大冲击。同时，3季度海外复工可能耗时更长，所以全球“补库存”周期可能4季度才全面展开。</p><p>6，当前形势下，财政与货币政策的逆周期调节力度或将加码，短期“美元慌”过后，人民币可能有升值动力。</p><p>7，2020年周期性财政赤字率可能扩大4-5个百分点，最“广义”的财政赤字率或将比2019年扩大 6-7 个百分点。</p><p>8，预计2020年LPR（贷款基础利率）还将下调40bp、 RRR（存款准备金）将再下降150bp，同时，存款基准利率可能调降25个基点。</p><p>9，随着下半年“美元荒”消退，中外增长差和利差走阔的基本面可能推动人民币兑美元和一篮子货币升值。</p><p>10，随着2021年上半年基数大幅下降、环比增长企稳，预计2021年中国实际GDP增速有望回升至 9.0%。</p><p>二、梁红23日晚的演讲</p><p>情况可能比预期还要糟？</p><p>从2月2号开始，疫情成为大家的一个关注点，我们跟大家交流的时候，大家关注点还是中国的疫情的是否能控制住和对经济的影响。</p><p>我们当时用了基本2003年SARS时候的框架，基本观点是如果只是中国的疫情，我们会损失很多一季度的GDP，但在各种有效隔离之后，应该在一两个月后，我们的经济活动会逐步恢复，当时预测的是应该到3月底4月初，工业生产能够快速恢复到正常开工率的80%~90%。</p><p>但是3月2号到3月8号，我们看到了海外疫情的扩张，而中国的疫情已明显得到了控制。</p><p>我们开始担心，因为海外疫情的发展和应对的方式不同，会使得疫情带来下一步的冲击，使得中国的出口需求可能会类似2008年那样的短期停摆。</p><p>当时，还是从中国疫情里得到几个观点：第1，这个传染病是非常快速传播的。第2，它的死亡率还是很高的。</p><p>我们当时提出，在现代化的国家里面，没有一个国家可以容忍这么高的死亡率，同时，6月份之前我们看不到其他更有效的技术和医学解决办法，唯一有效的办法就是隔离，隔离虽然会有效控制疫情，但会有比较大的经济活动的代价。</p><p>所以，当时我们就提出，整个全球经济可能按一下暂停键，我们当时假如在最坏的情况下，像2008年在次贷危机之后，中国的出口增速在12个月里从高点到低点，几乎下滑了40个百分点，用这样的模式来算，中国在二季度之后会有出口下滑，虽然国内可以复产复工，但是出口订单会可能面临快速消失的风险。</p><p>当时我们写的报告叫《百年一遇疫情下的中国和世界》，最担心的主战场就是美国的问题，如果美国的疫情控制的好，那么全球还可能是在两个季度、上半年结束战斗，虽然损失会比我们最初估计的大，但还是所谓短期中国损失一季度、欧美损失二季度这样的节奏来估算经济的损失，这样，我们也可以相对也可以对股票、对其他资产做估值。</p><p>但是在过去的10天里，美国的情况是比较令人担忧的，最大的担忧还是他的政治情况，而不只是疫情问题。</p><p>在过去10天的演变情况来讲，美国的疫情控制的相当不好，这种不好引起大家对未来经济、企业盈利的担心，并且开始引发金融市场上的震荡。</p><p>至少，在主要的欧美的资本市场上，疫情正在从一个经济方面的风险或者危机，有可能转向市场或者是金融的危机。</p><p>如果这个风险继续演变、演进下去，即使疫情得到了控制，在这场仗打完之后，金融危机也好，或者金融损失也好，还会再回来负反馈到经济活动。</p><p>在这个大背景下，我们今天大幅下调了中国和美国的经济增长，随之也下调了全球增长。一季度和二季度，中国和全球很多国家会看到，有记录以来的数字最差的同比增长或者环比增长。</p><p>基本上，经济生活除了最基本的一些食品和医疗相关的活动，大部分活动都按下暂停键，很多客户对我们反馈，觉得我们数字调的还是太大了。</p><p>大家知道，我们现在的预测，实际上还是经济预测，还没有把欧美市场，尤其是美国市场出现金融动荡、出现问题放进去。如果美国的金融出了问题，资本市场一些比较大的机构和体系出现问题的话，实际上，三、四季度的经济增长并不会像我们听到的那样，会在三、四季度快速的回升。</p><p>在那样的情形下，至少在中国之外，三季度的经济增长会非常低迷，我们自己的增长在今年全年是2． 6%、一季度比较差，我们现在还没有把美国资本市场出比较大的问题当作一个基本情形。</p><p>今天的市场，中国自己的经济恢复、政策空间、市场估值，都有相对的韧性，但这种韧性放在现在海外这样大的波动中，我们还是有相对的压力的。</p><p>“政策宽松力度还是不够的”</p><p>在这样一个宏观的框架下，政策能做什么？原来我们在3月2号之前的情景下讲的，中国的政策应对，不管是减税、降费、增加财政赤字还是一定程度的货币政策宽松，都是OK的。</p><p>但以我们现在看到的经济马上很快要受到冲击来讲，中国的政策宽松力度还是不够的，不管是货币政策还是财政政策。</p><p>财政政策本身，我们觉得在中国之外，欧美一些国家今年大概财政赤字都会在两位数，美国有可能会今明两年都在两位数字，它本身收入减少，支出增加，就会有一个很大的持续扩张，这还没有计入为了刺激经济，或者说为了拉动经济回到潜在增长率所花的代价。</p><p>我们也看到了，美国的利率很快的前端降到了0，长端10年期也降到非常低，中国利率现在说实话，调整相对还是有差价的。</p><p>短期来讲，人民币有一些贬值压力，主要是世界资本市场的动荡，但是在这些动荡过后，因为中国相对的韧性，中国不管是抗击疫情的成果，还是后期真正发现经济下来之后、政策拉动经济的回旋余地之大，相对来说一年或一年以上的空间，人民币重新回到升值位置的压力。</p><p>从中国1、2月份的数字看，从中国一季度会很比较差的数据看，二季度海外的数据会应该缩水很多，大家说，连战争时期都没有看到很差的数，这没有什么好奇怪的，因为中国的数据1、2月份已经告诉大家，除了生活和医疗基本的活动以外，其他几乎都停掉，而且它的疫情控制的节奏时间比我们拉的还要长。</p><p>我们应该可以看到3月10号以后，海外经济活动数字快速下滑，我们看到，包括广东在内的一些地方的出口的订单也比较快速下滑的状态。我们估计，出口数据是滞后的，很多比较差的数字会在二季度，而且随着往后拖，5、6月甚至更远，会出现比较差的数字。</p><p>所以，我们把今年中国的出口增速放为下跌18%，这个跟和去年相比，本身会给中国造城一个比较大的产出缺口，相应会有一个政策调整的需求，至于政策会怎么走，中国现在还在看着自己的情况再调整。</p><p>海外有几个比较清楚的：一是零利率，二是两位数字的财政赤字，第3个也看得很清楚，这些财政赤字会比较大规模的用货币化的方式来解决，直升机撒钱的模式有可能在很多国家成为一个标配。</p><p>在这样的环境下，我们从再看长一点，看半年、一年以上，人民币的问题、我们的资产配置问题都会是很重要的课题。</p><p>但是从短期来讲，未来一两个星期有两个核心事情，第1个是欧美疫情的发展，第2个就是现在正在发生的在美国金融市场的动荡，是否会演变成一场金融危机或者金融衰退，我们自己觉得，这个风险还是蛮大的。</p><p>简单来讲，特别是美国十几年的低利率，比较高的杠杆，它的监管在2008年之后，主要是对银行和投行，但是在它的资管机构方面，很多流动性差的产品和杠杆，实际上大家的认识还是不足的。</p><p>我们自己觉得，至少短期第1个是疫情的控制，尤其在欧美这些国家可能特别是美国，短期还没有好消息。</p><p>第2个，我们看到金融市场的动荡，股票市场相对来说流动性最好，实在很多其他交易里，很多资产价格都已经交易量萎缩，而且报价都已经很困难，那才是西方的金融市场动荡的震中。</p><p>我们需要看，未来一两个星期可能决定的是美国疫情会不会完全演变成像意大利这样。</p><p>第二就是美国现在的金融市场的动荡，会不会演化成更恶劣的事情，应该可能就在这一两个星期里，可能给大家更多的信息。</p><p>三、机构提问环节：</p><p>国内投资者对海外风险的评估不够足</p><p>**公募基金：疫情发展到现在，市场有比较大的回调，大家担心基本面即使已经控制住了，海外金融机构会不会出流动性挤压的问题？大资金应该左侧还是右侧交易？</p><p>梁红：我快速回答一下。我个人感觉，可能国内投资者抛到这个时候，因为我们总结2008年的经验可能比较理解，中国对海外风险的观察或者感觉不够，风险打进去的不够多。</p><p>因为你刚才问的那个问题实际上是两个事情，第一，当外需有一个比如几十个百分点的，在几个月的下滑的时候，其实很多公司的盈利也是会有影响的，毕竟大家是连着的。</p><p>第2，比如说我们现在有1万亿通过港股通来买A股的，还有2万多亿买国债的，我们在2008年时候都见过，当这些钱在美国市场出问题的时候，它也会把赚的钱，或者它还有流动性的资产转出去，这也是一个传导渠道。</p><p>第3，其实还是有个相对比价的问题，大家都看过一个茅台等于多少什么的图片？当那个东西出来的时候，你就知道，要不是那些太便宜了，要不就是我们这头太贵了。我们当年看海外银行股都是0.2倍，0.3倍PB的时候，你也很难想象中国的银行还有两倍，当时都是大家估值一起往下走。</p><p>我们当时最早提出可能像2008年那样一个冲击的时候，市场觉得我们可能过于悲观了，当然，现在有人说比2008年还要大很多。我们觉得，其实现在是看不清的状态，我们只能说二季度的数据，在未来可以看到的3、4个月，会是有记录以来最差的经济数据。</p><p>在这样的经济数据下，企业盈利到底谁能够持续，在金融市场上，特别美国这样的一个大资产市场上有这么高的杠杆，它以什么形式来把杠杆降下来，我们是不知道的，这个墙是比较危险的，大家可能安全系数要打的高一点，现在的风险可能在我们看来，有点低估的情况。</p><p>“中国要补内需，</p><p>不调整房地产政策是做不到的“</p><p>某保险资管：您把GDP的实际增速从6.1下调到2.6，下调幅度还是挺大的，在这样的经济增速预测之下，中国全面建成小康社会翻一番的目标还能不能实现？如果不能实现，站在在高层的角度，没有说要下调目标？</p><p>第2个问题是，现在有些声音是说全球的三大泡沫都破裂了，您对于中国房地产市场泡沫破裂的可能性，以及未来中国房地产市场的走势怎么看？</p><p>梁红：我觉得中国如果能够2.6%的增长，可能是主要经济体唯一今年有正增长的国家，相对来讲是个很不容易的情况了。</p><p>我其实挺奇怪的，大家怎么会对外面的情况和外需的下滑．．．．．．我自己了解的，不光是客户，还是有一些研究人员，还是估计的好像没有特别充分。</p><p>我自己还是觉得，在这么大的一个已经讲是百年不遇的疫情、美国到负二十几增长的时候，中国如果能够有个正2，应该是非常一枝独秀的成绩。</p><p>小康水平的话，我比较有信心的，12个月之后我们肯定能实现。一季度如果是像我们说的中国增长可能是负9的话，明年同比就会很高，对吧？</p><p>大家都讲过，中国是一个很耐心的国家，那为什么要争这两个季度？而且原来如果觉得一季度只是我们的疫情，我们还可以把时间争过来，二季度至少至少要加上一个欧美全线暂停，在这种情况下，我们为什么要一定要把它全部在剩下两个季度都抓回来？</p><p>假如说美国演进成为一个金融问题，那就更没有必要或者说可能在今年实现这样一个目标。</p><p>第二个问题回答房地产，我倒是觉得，其实你看美国的资产没什么可买的，不管是股和债都挺危险的，10年国债也是和2008年很不同的情况，10年国债的流动性都出现问题，这可能还是它的杠杆和其它问题。</p><p>但是中国的十年国债是个很好的东西。我觉得，中国央行和有关方面还没有意识到这个问题是有多大，当其它国家都乱做，都做今年做15个点以上GDP的财政赤字、资金货币化的时候，我们如果不改变，我们不光是增长的问题，我们难道在这时候要人民币升值吗？大规模升值吗？</p><p>其实，现在人民币在离岸已经升得很厉害了，我觉得中国有一些调整是一定要做的。货币政策宽松比现在要宽的空间，财政政策，如果全世界的国家都开始用央行买国债的时候，我们为什么不可以？</p><p>第3个您讲的房地产，很有意思，我们3月份现在已经快三个星期过去了，汽车销售同比-41%，房地产销售同比-41%。</p><p>这样的情况，如果要想把内需补回来，不调整房地产的政策是做不到的，而且其实中国的车和房都在限购状态下，如果今天放开限购，即使在今天疫情下，我相信都有需求，中国有些政策是该调的。</p><p>房地产问题是什么？现在可能大家看到房价还没有落，但是你往前看，房价一定是要下来的，如果没有政策调整的话，因为收入会出现一个巨大的窟窿，中国作为一个整体，因为外需下去，国家的收入，还是我们整个的居民和企业的收入，会向下有很大的压力。</p><p>如果大家回忆一下2008年，出口下来以后，很快，沿海的房子价钱就下来了，我们如果说逆周期要调的话，微调的话，要趁早调的话，房地产的一些限购、限贷政策，包括我们的利率都是有调整的空间。</p><p>至于中国的房地产是不是一个泡沫，就不在这儿讨论了。我们中金在中国房地产的问题上，一直跟市场上也有不太相同的观点，但我觉得，从短期应对来讲，房地产的政策，因为在经济下滑的情况下，你不可能靠发展消费券去吃吃喝喝的堵得住的，更大的一定是车和房子。</p><p>中国可预期的政策排序是什么？</p><p>**公募基金：关于政策应对的这个事儿，您能否排个序，就是您认为比较重要的12345。现在看到好像政策制定者还是比较慢，起码我们从市场来看，政策还是比较犹豫的，好像也没有非常快地大刀阔斧去推，你觉得制约因素是什么？</p><p>梁红：其实我们自己观察中国政策的调整，它会慢一点，现在的应对，我觉得方方面面还都在集中在中国的疫情。大家觉得现在数字慢，是因为复产复工还有很多障碍，人都还堵着回不去。当然，已经发现订单的问题了，今天已经听到比如说东莞广东出口的订单出现问题了，不是说工人不回来。</p><p>我如果直白讲一点，其实中国和海外的市场，尤其是股票的投资者都有一点慢，对这个问题往前走，这到底可能会是个什么样的节奏，一个什么样的问题，但是它不会完全缺席。</p><p>以我们观察的数据，3月10号之后，全球的经济就开始断崖式的，很多的数字开始跳水。</p><p>我们看到的中国的订单和外区的活动，基本也就在三月中左右就开始出现，我们觉得在晚就能看到一季度的数据，原来算的账是2月份丢掉，3月份补回来，原来的说法后面很快就被拉起来，但现在我们3月4号和8号写的两篇东西，如果我们的工厂全部能开到100%，单是订单、出口这一块就下来20个点。</p><p>也就是说，就算我们自己把自己的全部恢复正常，我们还是可能有20个点的空位，而且这一部分很结构性的在出口在其他的订单上，在某些行业、某些省、哪些企业是非常大的，是50%、60%的问题。</p><p>15个点百分点GDP这么大的窟窿，靠什么把它堵上？当时就提了一个，肯定我们现在第一财政赤字占的比较大的，要比我们当时刚刚患疫情的时候要大。</p><p>第二，货币政策在这样情况下，不想人民币大幅升值，一定要前端和后端都下去，前端前几天下得比较快，但长端还是比较高，这里也包括我们最近看到的LPR一堆的利率都还没有调，现在调的慢，后面就要调的快一点。</p><p>其实这些之外，我们觉得还能做什么？我们刚才讲，这个时候一定要看纯内需的板块，什么叫纯内需的板块？ 需求是我们自己的政策可以调的，供给也基本在我们手上，不需要什么海外的这种供应链里头的很多的东西，毫无疑问，房地产一定在这里面是一块。</p><p>房地产的政策过去几年我们自己觉得，其实房地产的供需都可以更正常化一点，并不意味着房价上涨，你完全可以有个政策目标，就规定房价就是不许涨。但是还是可以调节，</p><p>在供需两端，我们有很多的政策，去年是一个完全不同的大的经济环境，如果从节奏来讲，短期可以耗，因为可以没有觉得痛苦，整个数字出来了，等着叫急，等着看到一季度、3月份之后，基本上数字还是非常难看，财政压力会非常的大。这个时候会不会调？以什么方式调？</p><p>财政的给力斥资，我估计央行的压力会非常大，因为我们自己可以犹豫，但是大家刚才已经看过了，美联储已经出手了，欧洲央行也会出手，这些国家今年都是两位数字的财政赤字，他们已经借债已经借成这副样子，怎么办？央行直接购买国债可能是最简单的解决方案。</p><p>如果大家都这么做，而且他们直接用国家发工资这种方式来做，我们这边的一些更教条的想法，或者更自己刻舟求剑的一些想法，我觉得会倒逼的做调整。</p><p>我个人觉得，从政策上来讲，更宽的财政赤字，当然如果能盘活存量，再交点社保，再到公司应用上是好的，但是在那些动不了的情况下，发更长的一些国债，更低的利率，甚至比如让央行直接买，如果我们中国自己做压力会比较大，因为全世界都做，我们不做也有压力。</p><p>另外，从需求端来讲，车和房尤其是房，手边就带着这么大的一个内需，不去调、不去动，这是说不过去的。</p><p>可能从节奏上来讲，我估计你说的这种滞后，应该不会超过半个月的。</p><p><a 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金梁红：经济可能比预想的糟，中国GDP或降至2.6%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-24 12:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2020-03-24/doc-iimxxsth1346707.shtml><strong>新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资人记事中金公司董事总经理梁红3月23日一则报告震惊市场：她将2020年中国实际GDP增速预测从此前的6.1%下调至2.6%。当日晚间，全球多个救市政策出台：美联储宣布广泛新措施来支持经济；德国政府批准规模7500亿欧元的刺激措施；中国央行表态支持为证金公司提供充足的流动性，以维护股市稳定。中金公司于当晚召开电话会议，梁红参会，对经济和政策做解释和解读。梁红提到：“美国这样的一个大资产市场上有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2020-03-24/doc-iimxxsth1346707.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22074ce2030dfad04695a0a2e6eae8a1","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数",".DJI":"道琼斯","HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/marketresearch/2020-03-24/doc-iimxxsth1346707.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2021583966","content_text":"投资人记事中金公司董事总经理梁红3月23日一则报告震惊市场：她将2020年中国实际GDP增速预测从此前的6.1%下调至2.6%。当日晚间，全球多个救市政策出台：美联储宣布广泛新措施来支持经济；德国政府批准规模7500亿欧元的刺激措施；中国央行表态支持为证金公司提供充足的流动性，以维护股市稳定。中金公司于当晚召开电话会议，梁红参会，对经济和政策做解释和解读。梁红提到：“美国这样的一个大资产市场上有这么高的杠杆，它以什么形式来把杠杆降下来，我们是不知道的，这个墙是比较危险的，大家可能安全系数要打的高一点，现在的风险可能在我们看来，有点低估的情况。”梁红是国内最具有国际视野的宏观分析师。她早年曾供职于国际货币基金组织若干个亚洲国家代表处，后加入高盛亚太区任首席经济学家，离开高盛后，加盟中金公司。核心预测下面是梁红在3月23日的最新研报中给出的10个核心预测：1，近期，新冠疫情迅速在全球扩散升级、并已出现向金融市场“传染”的迹象。鉴于此，将2020年中国实际GDP增速预测从此前的6.1%下调至2.6%。2，短期内，全球经济严重衰退的可能性明显上升，新冠疫情将对今年中国 GDP 造成约6个百分点的负面冲击。3，2020年，中国出口同比可能大幅下跌18%左右，为拖累 2-4 季度增长的最主要因素，短期名义进口同比降幅可能更大、 达到 25%左右。4，当前，新冠疫情在欧美快速扩散升级，且在部分亚洲地区出现“二次回升”。预计今年2季度的大部分时间内， 全球经济可能处于“暂停”状态。5，海外疫情进入 “平台期”所需的时间可能长于中国、整个2季度的经济活动都将受到较大冲击。同时，3季度海外复工可能耗时更长，所以全球“补库存”周期可能4季度才全面展开。6，当前形势下，财政与货币政策的逆周期调节力度或将加码，短期“美元慌”过后，人民币可能有升值动力。7，2020年周期性财政赤字率可能扩大4-5个百分点，最“广义”的财政赤字率或将比2019年扩大 6-7 个百分点。8，预计2020年LPR（贷款基础利率）还将下调40bp、 RRR（存款准备金）将再下降150bp，同时，存款基准利率可能调降25个基点。9，随着下半年“美元荒”消退，中外增长差和利差走阔的基本面可能推动人民币兑美元和一篮子货币升值。10，随着2021年上半年基数大幅下降、环比增长企稳，预计2021年中国实际GDP增速有望回升至 9.0%。二、梁红23日晚的演讲情况可能比预期还要糟？从2月2号开始，疫情成为大家的一个关注点，我们跟大家交流的时候，大家关注点还是中国的疫情的是否能控制住和对经济的影响。我们当时用了基本2003年SARS时候的框架，基本观点是如果只是中国的疫情，我们会损失很多一季度的GDP，但在各种有效隔离之后，应该在一两个月后，我们的经济活动会逐步恢复，当时预测的是应该到3月底4月初，工业生产能够快速恢复到正常开工率的80%~90%。但是3月2号到3月8号，我们看到了海外疫情的扩张，而中国的疫情已明显得到了控制。我们开始担心，因为海外疫情的发展和应对的方式不同，会使得疫情带来下一步的冲击，使得中国的出口需求可能会类似2008年那样的短期停摆。当时，还是从中国疫情里得到几个观点：第1，这个传染病是非常快速传播的。第2，它的死亡率还是很高的。我们当时提出，在现代化的国家里面，没有一个国家可以容忍这么高的死亡率，同时，6月份之前我们看不到其他更有效的技术和医学解决办法，唯一有效的办法就是隔离，隔离虽然会有效控制疫情，但会有比较大的经济活动的代价。所以，当时我们就提出，整个全球经济可能按一下暂停键，我们当时假如在最坏的情况下，像2008年在次贷危机之后，中国的出口增速在12个月里从高点到低点，几乎下滑了40个百分点，用这样的模式来算，中国在二季度之后会有出口下滑，虽然国内可以复产复工，但是出口订单会可能面临快速消失的风险。当时我们写的报告叫《百年一遇疫情下的中国和世界》，最担心的主战场就是美国的问题，如果美国的疫情控制的好，那么全球还可能是在两个季度、上半年结束战斗，虽然损失会比我们最初估计的大，但还是所谓短期中国损失一季度、欧美损失二季度这样的节奏来估算经济的损失，这样，我们也可以相对也可以对股票、对其他资产做估值。但是在过去的10天里，美国的情况是比较令人担忧的，最大的担忧还是他的政治情况，而不只是疫情问题。在过去10天的演变情况来讲，美国的疫情控制的相当不好，这种不好引起大家对未来经济、企业盈利的担心，并且开始引发金融市场上的震荡。至少，在主要的欧美的资本市场上，疫情正在从一个经济方面的风险或者危机，有可能转向市场或者是金融的危机。如果这个风险继续演变、演进下去，即使疫情得到了控制，在这场仗打完之后，金融危机也好，或者金融损失也好，还会再回来负反馈到经济活动。在这个大背景下，我们今天大幅下调了中国和美国的经济增长，随之也下调了全球增长。一季度和二季度，中国和全球很多国家会看到，有记录以来的数字最差的同比增长或者环比增长。基本上，经济生活除了最基本的一些食品和医疗相关的活动，大部分活动都按下暂停键，很多客户对我们反馈，觉得我们数字调的还是太大了。大家知道，我们现在的预测，实际上还是经济预测，还没有把欧美市场，尤其是美国市场出现金融动荡、出现问题放进去。如果美国的金融出了问题，资本市场一些比较大的机构和体系出现问题的话，实际上，三、四季度的经济增长并不会像我们听到的那样，会在三、四季度快速的回升。在那样的情形下，至少在中国之外，三季度的经济增长会非常低迷，我们自己的增长在今年全年是2． 6%、一季度比较差，我们现在还没有把美国资本市场出比较大的问题当作一个基本情形。今天的市场，中国自己的经济恢复、政策空间、市场估值，都有相对的韧性，但这种韧性放在现在海外这样大的波动中，我们还是有相对的压力的。“政策宽松力度还是不够的”在这样一个宏观的框架下，政策能做什么？原来我们在3月2号之前的情景下讲的，中国的政策应对，不管是减税、降费、增加财政赤字还是一定程度的货币政策宽松，都是OK的。但以我们现在看到的经济马上很快要受到冲击来讲，中国的政策宽松力度还是不够的，不管是货币政策还是财政政策。财政政策本身，我们觉得在中国之外，欧美一些国家今年大概财政赤字都会在两位数，美国有可能会今明两年都在两位数字，它本身收入减少，支出增加，就会有一个很大的持续扩张，这还没有计入为了刺激经济，或者说为了拉动经济回到潜在增长率所花的代价。我们也看到了，美国的利率很快的前端降到了0，长端10年期也降到非常低，中国利率现在说实话，调整相对还是有差价的。短期来讲，人民币有一些贬值压力，主要是世界资本市场的动荡，但是在这些动荡过后，因为中国相对的韧性，中国不管是抗击疫情的成果，还是后期真正发现经济下来之后、政策拉动经济的回旋余地之大，相对来说一年或一年以上的空间，人民币重新回到升值位置的压力。从中国1、2月份的数字看，从中国一季度会很比较差的数据看，二季度海外的数据会应该缩水很多，大家说，连战争时期都没有看到很差的数，这没有什么好奇怪的，因为中国的数据1、2月份已经告诉大家，除了生活和医疗基本的活动以外，其他几乎都停掉，而且它的疫情控制的节奏时间比我们拉的还要长。我们应该可以看到3月10号以后，海外经济活动数字快速下滑，我们看到，包括广东在内的一些地方的出口的订单也比较快速下滑的状态。我们估计，出口数据是滞后的，很多比较差的数字会在二季度，而且随着往后拖，5、6月甚至更远，会出现比较差的数字。所以，我们把今年中国的出口增速放为下跌18%，这个跟和去年相比，本身会给中国造城一个比较大的产出缺口，相应会有一个政策调整的需求，至于政策会怎么走，中国现在还在看着自己的情况再调整。海外有几个比较清楚的：一是零利率，二是两位数字的财政赤字，第3个也看得很清楚，这些财政赤字会比较大规模的用货币化的方式来解决，直升机撒钱的模式有可能在很多国家成为一个标配。在这样的环境下，我们从再看长一点，看半年、一年以上，人民币的问题、我们的资产配置问题都会是很重要的课题。但是从短期来讲，未来一两个星期有两个核心事情，第1个是欧美疫情的发展，第2个就是现在正在发生的在美国金融市场的动荡，是否会演变成一场金融危机或者金融衰退，我们自己觉得，这个风险还是蛮大的。简单来讲，特别是美国十几年的低利率，比较高的杠杆，它的监管在2008年之后，主要是对银行和投行，但是在它的资管机构方面，很多流动性差的产品和杠杆，实际上大家的认识还是不足的。我们自己觉得，至少短期第1个是疫情的控制，尤其在欧美这些国家可能特别是美国，短期还没有好消息。第2个，我们看到金融市场的动荡，股票市场相对来说流动性最好，实在很多其他交易里，很多资产价格都已经交易量萎缩，而且报价都已经很困难，那才是西方的金融市场动荡的震中。我们需要看，未来一两个星期可能决定的是美国疫情会不会完全演变成像意大利这样。第二就是美国现在的金融市场的动荡，会不会演化成更恶劣的事情，应该可能就在这一两个星期里，可能给大家更多的信息。三、机构提问环节：国内投资者对海外风险的评估不够足**公募基金：疫情发展到现在，市场有比较大的回调，大家担心基本面即使已经控制住了，海外金融机构会不会出流动性挤压的问题？大资金应该左侧还是右侧交易？梁红：我快速回答一下。我个人感觉，可能国内投资者抛到这个时候，因为我们总结2008年的经验可能比较理解，中国对海外风险的观察或者感觉不够，风险打进去的不够多。因为你刚才问的那个问题实际上是两个事情，第一，当外需有一个比如几十个百分点的，在几个月的下滑的时候，其实很多公司的盈利也是会有影响的，毕竟大家是连着的。第2，比如说我们现在有1万亿通过港股通来买A股的，还有2万多亿买国债的，我们在2008年时候都见过，当这些钱在美国市场出问题的时候，它也会把赚的钱，或者它还有流动性的资产转出去，这也是一个传导渠道。第3，其实还是有个相对比价的问题，大家都看过一个茅台等于多少什么的图片？当那个东西出来的时候，你就知道，要不是那些太便宜了，要不就是我们这头太贵了。我们当年看海外银行股都是0.2倍，0.3倍PB的时候，你也很难想象中国的银行还有两倍，当时都是大家估值一起往下走。我们当时最早提出可能像2008年那样一个冲击的时候，市场觉得我们可能过于悲观了，当然，现在有人说比2008年还要大很多。我们觉得，其实现在是看不清的状态，我们只能说二季度的数据，在未来可以看到的3、4个月，会是有记录以来最差的经济数据。在这样的经济数据下，企业盈利到底谁能够持续，在金融市场上，特别美国这样的一个大资产市场上有这么高的杠杆，它以什么形式来把杠杆降下来，我们是不知道的，这个墙是比较危险的，大家可能安全系数要打的高一点，现在的风险可能在我们看来，有点低估的情况。“中国要补内需，不调整房地产政策是做不到的“某保险资管：您把GDP的实际增速从6.1下调到2.6，下调幅度还是挺大的，在这样的经济增速预测之下，中国全面建成小康社会翻一番的目标还能不能实现？如果不能实现，站在在高层的角度，没有说要下调目标？第2个问题是，现在有些声音是说全球的三大泡沫都破裂了，您对于中国房地产市场泡沫破裂的可能性，以及未来中国房地产市场的走势怎么看？梁红：我觉得中国如果能够2.6%的增长，可能是主要经济体唯一今年有正增长的国家，相对来讲是个很不容易的情况了。我其实挺奇怪的，大家怎么会对外面的情况和外需的下滑．．．．．．我自己了解的，不光是客户，还是有一些研究人员，还是估计的好像没有特别充分。我自己还是觉得，在这么大的一个已经讲是百年不遇的疫情、美国到负二十几增长的时候，中国如果能够有个正2，应该是非常一枝独秀的成绩。小康水平的话，我比较有信心的，12个月之后我们肯定能实现。一季度如果是像我们说的中国增长可能是负9的话，明年同比就会很高，对吧？大家都讲过，中国是一个很耐心的国家，那为什么要争这两个季度？而且原来如果觉得一季度只是我们的疫情，我们还可以把时间争过来，二季度至少至少要加上一个欧美全线暂停，在这种情况下，我们为什么要一定要把它全部在剩下两个季度都抓回来？假如说美国演进成为一个金融问题，那就更没有必要或者说可能在今年实现这样一个目标。第二个问题回答房地产，我倒是觉得，其实你看美国的资产没什么可买的，不管是股和债都挺危险的，10年国债也是和2008年很不同的情况，10年国债的流动性都出现问题，这可能还是它的杠杆和其它问题。但是中国的十年国债是个很好的东西。我觉得，中国央行和有关方面还没有意识到这个问题是有多大，当其它国家都乱做，都做今年做15个点以上GDP的财政赤字、资金货币化的时候，我们如果不改变，我们不光是增长的问题，我们难道在这时候要人民币升值吗？大规模升值吗？其实，现在人民币在离岸已经升得很厉害了，我觉得中国有一些调整是一定要做的。货币政策宽松比现在要宽的空间，财政政策，如果全世界的国家都开始用央行买国债的时候，我们为什么不可以？第3个您讲的房地产，很有意思，我们3月份现在已经快三个星期过去了，汽车销售同比-41%，房地产销售同比-41%。这样的情况，如果要想把内需补回来，不调整房地产的政策是做不到的，而且其实中国的车和房都在限购状态下，如果今天放开限购，即使在今天疫情下，我相信都有需求，中国有些政策是该调的。房地产问题是什么？现在可能大家看到房价还没有落，但是你往前看，房价一定是要下来的，如果没有政策调整的话，因为收入会出现一个巨大的窟窿，中国作为一个整体，因为外需下去，国家的收入，还是我们整个的居民和企业的收入，会向下有很大的压力。如果大家回忆一下2008年，出口下来以后，很快，沿海的房子价钱就下来了，我们如果说逆周期要调的话，微调的话，要趁早调的话，房地产的一些限购、限贷政策，包括我们的利率都是有调整的空间。至于中国的房地产是不是一个泡沫，就不在这儿讨论了。我们中金在中国房地产的问题上，一直跟市场上也有不太相同的观点，但我觉得，从短期应对来讲，房地产的政策，因为在经济下滑的情况下，你不可能靠发展消费券去吃吃喝喝的堵得住的，更大的一定是车和房子。中国可预期的政策排序是什么？**公募基金：关于政策应对的这个事儿，您能否排个序，就是您认为比较重要的12345。现在看到好像政策制定者还是比较慢，起码我们从市场来看，政策还是比较犹豫的，好像也没有非常快地大刀阔斧去推，你觉得制约因素是什么？梁红：其实我们自己观察中国政策的调整，它会慢一点，现在的应对，我觉得方方面面还都在集中在中国的疫情。大家觉得现在数字慢，是因为复产复工还有很多障碍，人都还堵着回不去。当然，已经发现订单的问题了，今天已经听到比如说东莞广东出口的订单出现问题了，不是说工人不回来。我如果直白讲一点，其实中国和海外的市场，尤其是股票的投资者都有一点慢，对这个问题往前走，这到底可能会是个什么样的节奏，一个什么样的问题，但是它不会完全缺席。以我们观察的数据，3月10号之后，全球的经济就开始断崖式的，很多的数字开始跳水。我们看到的中国的订单和外区的活动，基本也就在三月中左右就开始出现，我们觉得在晚就能看到一季度的数据，原来算的账是2月份丢掉，3月份补回来，原来的说法后面很快就被拉起来，但现在我们3月4号和8号写的两篇东西，如果我们的工厂全部能开到100%，单是订单、出口这一块就下来20个点。也就是说，就算我们自己把自己的全部恢复正常，我们还是可能有20个点的空位，而且这一部分很结构性的在出口在其他的订单上，在某些行业、某些省、哪些企业是非常大的，是50%、60%的问题。15个点百分点GDP这么大的窟窿，靠什么把它堵上？当时就提了一个，肯定我们现在第一财政赤字占的比较大的，要比我们当时刚刚患疫情的时候要大。第二，货币政策在这样情况下，不想人民币大幅升值，一定要前端和后端都下去，前端前几天下得比较快，但长端还是比较高，这里也包括我们最近看到的LPR一堆的利率都还没有调，现在调的慢，后面就要调的快一点。其实这些之外，我们觉得还能做什么？我们刚才讲，这个时候一定要看纯内需的板块，什么叫纯内需的板块？ 需求是我们自己的政策可以调的，供给也基本在我们手上，不需要什么海外的这种供应链里头的很多的东西，毫无疑问，房地产一定在这里面是一块。房地产的政策过去几年我们自己觉得，其实房地产的供需都可以更正常化一点，并不意味着房价上涨，你完全可以有个政策目标，就规定房价就是不许涨。但是还是可以调节，在供需两端，我们有很多的政策，去年是一个完全不同的大的经济环境，如果从节奏来讲，短期可以耗，因为可以没有觉得痛苦，整个数字出来了，等着叫急，等着看到一季度、3月份之后，基本上数字还是非常难看，财政压力会非常的大。这个时候会不会调？以什么方式调？财政的给力斥资，我估计央行的压力会非常大，因为我们自己可以犹豫，但是大家刚才已经看过了，美联储已经出手了，欧洲央行也会出手，这些国家今年都是两位数字的财政赤字，他们已经借债已经借成这副样子，怎么办？央行直接购买国债可能是最简单的解决方案。如果大家都这么做，而且他们直接用国家发工资这种方式来做，我们这边的一些更教条的想法，或者更自己刻舟求剑的一些想法，我觉得会倒逼的做调整。我个人觉得，从政策上来讲，更宽的财政赤字，当然如果能盘活存量，再交点社保，再到公司应用上是好的，但是在那些动不了的情况下，发更长的一些国债，更低的利率，甚至比如让央行直接买，如果我们中国自己做压力会比较大，因为全世界都做，我们不做也有压力。另外，从需求端来讲，车和房尤其是房，手边就带着这么大的一个内需，不去调、不去动，这是说不过去的。可能从节奏上来讲，我估计你说的这种滞后，应该不会超过半个月的。新浪声明：新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。责任编辑：常福强","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145"},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"followers","isTTM":false}