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georgeshen
2020-05-24
拼多多的用户数纯在很大的水分,不说别的,我一个人就有好多个,一个微信就可以注册,然后领取补贴,这水分浑水没理由看不到,难道是养肥了杀?报告基本已经在路上
抱歉,原内容已删除
georgeshen
2019-03-26
$蔚来(NIO)$ es6试驾媒体充值了这么多,股票给力点啊……是不是es6没亮点,等于外面一个打不过,同门师兄先自相残杀了[喷血]
georgeshen
2019-03-09
$蔚来(NIO)$ 11号解禁,PPT来不及做了,紧急召集几个人过来画饼,真是八字还没一撇的事拿来说,完全没招了
georgeshen
2019-03-06
$蔚来(NIO)$ 集体诉讼的朋友呢?怎么删帖了?瓜也买了准备看好戏呢。国开行400多万股发什么公告啊,偷偷摸摸老美会抄底接盘的,你明着来谁接你啊
georgeshen
2019-03-06
$蔚来财报对es6只字未提,下定es6的要做好心理准备,原定嘉定新工厂生产的,临时交给江淮,又不是组装电脑,搞搞快的,车这几个月产线搞得好吗?年底看看也悬……
georgeshen
2019-03-06
$蔚来(NIO)$ 财报看了好多遍,可能文化低好多数据理解不了,特别是毛利率为-5.2%,负的就搞不懂了,是不是意思卖一头猪的价格还是喂它的饲料价格高?这样么蔚来要不亏太简单了啊,不要卖车,进配件卖啊,这么辛苦还亏这么多,搞不懂,大神麻烦指点下……#蔚来已来# #请教老司机#
georgeshen
2019-03-06
$蔚来(NIO)$ 说了要仔细阅读财报,第一个季度估计交付3500台,国地补政策一出,估计后面几个季度3000台都吃力,况且1月都是车辆销售高峰。我去@小鹏 赌约改2019年,哈哈,估计还能替他省下台es8
georgeshen
2019-03-06
$蔚来(NIO)$ 2018A股亏损王天神娱乐,78个亿,商誉减值,和蔚来比真是小儿科,人家真金白银亏96个多亿。2019蔚来加油,争取亏出个“未来”……2020我就不期望了,连年这么亏家有印钞机都撑不住……
georgeshen
2019-03-06
$蔚来(NIO)$ 特斯拉杀手……按照这样的销量今年亏损起码增加50%,es8基本卖不动,es6正面碰上model3和model Y,利润来源国补、地补也快忽略不计了。蔚来真是佛心来的,亏上百亿搞了这么多物业给大家“美好生活”,就是不知道夏天到了,大伯大妈去纳凉蔚来还有没有这么好的服务……
georgeshen
2018-07-19
$小米集团-W(01810)$ android授权要收费了,抄底不要变成站岗了
georgeshen
2017-11-29
小心脏受不了,什么时候又爆出哪里虐童了
$红黄蓝(RYB)$有胆在美国上市有得你受,我们就看看
小心脏受不了,什么时候又爆出哪里虐童了
georgeshen
2017-11-29
他的针生锈了吗?消毒了吗?我能骂脏话吗?
$红黄蓝(RYB)$一直以为打打手心就是体罚,现在才知道还用针扎?满清酷刑?是幼儿园啊,有没人性?为了赚钱良心给🐶吃了?
他的针生锈了吗?消毒了吗?我能骂脏话吗?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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Y,利润来源国补、地补也快忽略不计了。蔚来真是佛心来的,亏上百亿搞了这么多物业给大家“美好生活”,就是不知道夏天到了,大伯大妈去纳凉蔚来还有没有这么好的服务……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/417251","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":123812,"gmtCreate":1511949811866,"gmtModify":1704884843220,"author":{"id":"9719552934023","authorId":"9719552934023","name":"georgeshen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9719552934023","authorIdStr":"9719552934023"},"themes":[],"title":"他的针生锈了吗?消毒了吗?我能骂脏话吗?","htmlText":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$一直以为打打手心就是体罚,现在才知道还用针扎?满清酷刑?是幼儿园啊,有没人性?为了赚钱良心给🐶吃了?","listText":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$一直以为打打手心就是体罚,现在才知道还用针扎?满清酷刑?是幼儿园啊,有没人性?为了赚钱良心给🐶吃了?","text":"$红黄蓝(RYB)$一直以为打打手心就是体罚,现在才知道还用针扎?满清酷刑?是幼儿园啊,有没人性?为了赚钱良心给🐶吃了?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123812","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1331,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":953699679,"gmtCreate":1590288336891,"gmtModify":1704192286975,"author":{"id":"9719552934023","authorId":"9719552934023","name":"georgeshen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9719552934023","authorIdStr":"9719552934023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"拼多多的用户数纯在很大的水分,不说别的,我一个人就有好多个,一个微信就可以注册,然后领取补贴,这水分浑水没理由看不到,难道是养肥了杀?报告基本已经在路上","listText":"拼多多的用户数纯在很大的水分,不说别的,我一个人就有好多个,一个微信就可以注册,然后领取补贴,这水分浑水没理由看不到,难道是养肥了杀?报告基本已经在路上","text":"拼多多的用户数纯在很大的水分,不说别的,我一个人就有好多个,一个微信就可以注册,然后领取补贴,这水分浑水没理由看不到,难道是养肥了杀?报告基本已经在路上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/953699679","repostId":"2037449386","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2037449386","pubTimestamp":1590285960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2037449386?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-24 10:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多巨额补贴成双刃剑:亏损难止,需警惕股价泡沫","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2037449386","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"原标题:拼多多巨额补贴成双刃剑:亏损难止,需警惕股价泡沫 文 | 蚂蚁虫5月22日,阿里和拼多多前后脚发布了今年一季度的财报,而前几天京东财报已经先行发布。至此,国内三家主要电商平台的一季度财报全部集","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>巨额补贴成双刃剑:亏损难止,需警惕股价泡沫 </p><p>文 | 蚂蚁虫</p><p>5月22日,阿里和拼多多前后脚发布了今年一季度的财报,而前几天<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>财报已经先行发布。至此,国内三家主要电商平台的一季度财报全部集齐。</p><p>由于一季度正值国内疫情最严重之时,财报也可视为国内电商企业应对疫情交出的一份答卷。三家平台中,投资者最为关注的应该是拼多多,作为后来者它能否继续保持高增长,改善经营状况。</p><p><font>营收超预期,但GMV被质疑</font></p><p>拼多多Q1财报中,营收数据表现非常亮眼,远超分析师预期。财报显示,今年第一季度拼多多收入为65.41亿元,同比增长44%。而之前市场预期值为49.69亿元,拼多多Q1营收超出了市场预期3成。也正是这组漂亮的数据,带动了拼多多股价的大涨。</p><p>不过财报另一个数据——GMV,却面临着业界人士的质疑。拼多多在财报中没有直接披露2020年Q1的GMV,只是称截止2020年3月30日过去12个月的GMV同比增长了108%,有人根据历史数据和财报披露的增速,推算出拼多多上个季度的GMV同比增长99%,相当于是去年同期的两倍。</p><p>今年一季度正值国内疫情高峰,各地纷纷执行封闭式管理,整体经济被按下暂停键,零售商业受到了严重冲击。由于物流体系在很长一段时间内陷入停滞,2月份社会化快递几乎全面停运,从3月份才慢慢恢复,导致电商行业整体遭受重挫。春节后普遍宅家两个月的我们,对此都有亲身感受。第三方的数据也可以佐证,据国家邮政总局披露的数据显示,2020年一季度全国快递单量仅仅同比增长3%,而快递收入甚至同比略微下滑。</p><p>京东和阿里的财报虽然没直接提及该季GMV,但从财报的收入和活跃买家等数据来推算,它们的GMV应该有一定的同比增长,其中京东由于自营物流的天然优势受影响较小,其同比增速应不低于两位数。但在拼多多同比翻倍的GMV增速面前,阿里和京东都显得黯然失色。</p><p>由于拼多多物流体系最为薄弱,在三大电商平台中应该是受疫情冲击最大的一家。有人推测,拼多多财报GMV高速增长反直觉,有以下几种可能:</p><p>1、平台成交但未在当季完成发货交付的比例较高;2、平台统计口径不同等原因带来的数据“水份”。3、国家邮政总局的数据可能有遗漏不全之处。</p><p>其中3的可能性比较小,因为快递业数字化管理程度远高于其他行业,邮政总局可全面掌握行业大数据。2的可能确实存在,因为今年一季度快递停摆比较严重,平台对商家发货时效有所放宽。但春节期间补货本来就困难,加上今年疫情的影响,商家上架销售的存货并不多,有影响但不大。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020524/583/w1400h783/20200524/23d6-itzixrs7049350.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>三个因素之中,数2的可能性最大。因为现实中,不同的电商平台有各自不同的统计口径,比如阿里曾声明天猫GMV的口径是“完成了支付的”(订单),接近于成交额,拼多多的GMV口径很可能与传统电商平台有所不同。这是有据可考的,去年11月27日,拼多多在质询回函中曾隐晦表示,其GMV包含了取消和退款的订单。不同的口径下,相同的指标计算会产生较大的出入,这或是拼多多财报和外界印象相去较远的主要原因。</p><p>恰好有第三方研究机构发布过今年前几个月各大电商平台的GMV数据,可供参考。5月18日,由数据分析机构“超对称”举办的一场在线公开课中,首次披露电商平台疫情后恢复调查数据。今年1-3月,拼多多的GMV大约1940多亿元,同比增长28%。这个数据与大众的直觉相符,和邮政总局的行业大数据也不矛盾,应该更接近于大众统计口径下的情形。即:拼多多在疫情后出现报复性增长的可能性很小,而是与行业整体一样正处于缓慢的恢复中。</p><p>这表明,由于在物流、供应链等方面的短板,拼多多无法像阿里通过菜鸟网络、京东通过自有物流那样,迅速作出调整增加物流运力,以推动平台商家复工。疫情并没有成为拼多多的推进器,反而更像一块试金石,照出了它的短板。</p><p><font>份额易得,核心竞争力难换</font></p><p>去年8月发布当年Q2财报时,拼多多曾经预计将在今年实现年度盈利,并将利润率目标定为5%。过去几个季度以来,拼多多确实在往这个方向努力,曾连续多个季度都实现亏损收窄。</p><p>不过,拼多多的预计目标今年极可能要落空。这次Q1财报,拼多多的亏损不但没有收窄反而大幅扩大。今年一季度拼多多归属于普通股股东的净亏损为41.193亿元,而2019年同期为18.877亿元,同比亏损扩大了118.21%,远远超过了营收44%的同比增速。</p><p>拼多多今年一季度的总运营支出为人民币91.08亿元,而2019年同期为人民币57.624亿元,同比增加了58%。说细一些,拼多多总运营支出大体可分为两大类:一是销售与市场推广费用高达72.97亿元,同比增长49%;二是收入总成本为18.32亿元,较2019年同期的人民币8.733亿元增长110%。</p><p>对此,拼多多给出的解释是:一方面是在疫情期间,为了帮助商家主动降低平台营销成本,还将相当流量资源免费支持给了医疗用品等类目;另一方面,拼多多加大在技术、产品和商品直接补贴上的持续投入,如补贴、带宽成本等。</p><p>这个解释在市场费用上确实说得通,但不争的事实是:运营成本增速超过了营收,未能呈现出随着规模扩大而平均成本下降的应有趋势,表明拼多多在成本控制方面做得并不理想。</p><p>作为成长型企业,出现战略性亏损其次并不可怕,早前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>曾经连续亏损了差不多20年。投资人之所以认可亚马逊的长期亏损,是因为它坚持长期投资技术研发和高效的全球性物流体系,亏损换回来的是日后成为其核心竞争力的重要固定资产。但拼多多的情况却不一样,其亏损主要源于市场营销疯狂烧钱,性质上更像前两天被纳斯达克通知退市的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>,巨额补贴换回只是暂时的市场份额,而不是核心竞争力。</p><p>巨额补贴能不能帮拼多多赢得用户的忠诚度呢?拼多多Q1财报显示,“月活/年度买家的指标,从2019年一季度的65.4%提升到了2020年一季度的77.6%”,看起来很是乐观,但实际情况未必如此。</p><p>烧钱补贴换市场是近年来互联网企业快速做大的玩法,像外卖和网约车巨头,都是通过烧钱做到市场垄断地位。但如果没有足够的护城河,即便获得了市场地位这种打法也未必可靠。比如说滴滴,在并购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>之后成为了国内网约车市场的绝对老大,但在面对高德打车等后来者仍不轻松,因为它缺乏流量入口、用户忠诚度等核心竞争力。</p><p><font>拼多多与之类似,虽然近年来发展很快,但从目前观察来看,它除了价格相对低之外,没有形成自己的核心竞争力。</font>在品质、物流和服务均不如对手的情况下,拼多多绝无可能将阿里、京东逼退市场形成垄断。即,拼多多烧钱补贴来的用户,或和滴滴一样并不牢靠。</p><p>拼多多大多数用户是冲着商品价格便宜而来,而目前的利好指标是在持续性的巨额补贴下获得的。拼多多不可能一直亏损,当巨额补贴停止后这种价格优势便将不复存在。届时,拼多多物流慢、服务落后、体验差等种种不足便会全面显现出来,成为影响用户消费行为的关键因素,用户会不会流向其他平台呢?</p><p>答案是肯定的,作为理性的消费者,货比三家选择适合自己的商家或平台是极为正常的行为。想必大家都有印象,当年补贴大战时,几乎所有消费者都是跟着爸爸们的补贴走,丝毫没有品牌忠诚度。</p><p>巨额补贴正在成为拼多多的双刃剑,一方面确实有效地拉来了新增用户、提高了GMV;另一方面造成长期巨亏,形成了补贴依赖症不敢中止,否则极可能因为价格上涨而造成用户大量流失。</p><p>拼多多在财报中表示,公司现金储备充足,百亿补贴仍会持续,并不断扩大补贴的品类与商品数量。这个姿态在消费者听起来确实很高,但细品之下,何尝又不是被绑上恶性价格战战车上的无奈选择?</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020524/445/w1399h646/20200524/2475-itzixrs7049468.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>需高度警惕拼多多的泡沫</font></p><p>国内14亿人口中,剔去老人和小孩外,电商潜在目标群体在8-9亿左右,这就是淘宝用户难以高速增长的原因。随着6亿用户时代到来,拼多多也正在一步步逼近自己的天花板,进入平缓增长阶段。</p><p>从拼多多的月活用户增长就能看出这种趋势。今年Q1拼多多的月活用户为4.87亿,同比增量非常喜人,高达1.98亿,但环比增量却只有550万。而去年Q4的月活用户为4.815亿,环比增长了5180万。从上季度的近5200万新增下跌到本季度的550万,即使和去年同期相比,也不足去年同期的1/3,堪称是断崖式下跌。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020524/654/w1399h855/20200524/0881-itzixrs7049469.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>拼多多的GMV也走出了类似的曲线。整理了拼多多财报提到的历季度过去12个月的GMV,如下图。不难看出,近几个季度来其GMV在增长,但增速明显下降。其中同比增速正在逼近100%以内,而环比增速则从3成以上降至了2成以内。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020524/732/w1399h933/20200524/d057-itzixrs7049596.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>拼多多财报发布前夕,彭博综合37位分析师进行了预估:拼多多2020年Q1营收将达49.69亿元,较去年同期增长9.3%,或出现同比增速新低;调整后净亏损26.70亿元,较去年同期继续扩大93.6%。</p><p>虽然营收65.41亿元超过分析师预期,但拼多多的巨额亏损却没逃出他们的判断。实际31.966亿元的调整后净亏损甚至还比他们预估的高了5.2亿元,亏损率达到了67%,为上市以来最大的一次。</p><p>我们都知道,今天的股价是投资者对企业未来价值的折现预估。早前拼多多处于高增长阶段,投资者对其的主要考核指标是成长率。当高成长的故事不再,拼多多将面临着投资者要求赢利的压力,而巨额补贴则成为沉重的包袱。</p><p>Q1财报发布之后,拼多多迎来了股价上涨,周五报收为68.7美元。而此前5月21日,彭博综合37位分析师之前给出的平均目标股价为46.23美元,二者相差22.47美元。这个接近50%的差距,代表着普通投资者和专业分析师对于拼多多长期价值的不同判断。从专业分析师的角度来看,拼多多作为一个依赖巨额补助扩张的电商平台,尚不值68.7美元,其股价存在着较大的泡沫。</p><p>投资者应该将对拼多多的关注点从成长率及时转向盈利方面,否则很容易作出不当判断,遭遇较大的投资风险。</p><p>免责声明:自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体,版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人,不代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>立场。若内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-05-24/doc-iirczymk3249034.shtml><strong>新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:拼多多巨额补贴成双刃剑:亏损难止,需警惕股价泡沫 文 | 蚂蚁虫5月22日,阿里和拼多多前后脚发布了今年一季度的财报,而前几天京东财报已经先行发布。至此,国内三家主要电商平台的一季度财报全部集齐。由于一季度正值国内疫情最严重之时,财报也可视为国内电商企业应对疫情交出的一份答卷。三家平台中,投资者最为关注的应该是拼多多,作为后来者它能否继续保持高增长,改善经营状况。营收超预期,但GMV被质疑...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-05-24/doc-iirczymk3249034.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2db5797ca32628002f32e69d5dea58b","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/s/2020-05-24/doc-iirczymk3249034.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2037449386","content_text":"原标题:拼多多巨额补贴成双刃剑:亏损难止,需警惕股价泡沫 文 | 蚂蚁虫5月22日,阿里和拼多多前后脚发布了今年一季度的财报,而前几天京东财报已经先行发布。至此,国内三家主要电商平台的一季度财报全部集齐。由于一季度正值国内疫情最严重之时,财报也可视为国内电商企业应对疫情交出的一份答卷。三家平台中,投资者最为关注的应该是拼多多,作为后来者它能否继续保持高增长,改善经营状况。营收超预期,但GMV被质疑拼多多Q1财报中,营收数据表现非常亮眼,远超分析师预期。财报显示,今年第一季度拼多多收入为65.41亿元,同比增长44%。而之前市场预期值为49.69亿元,拼多多Q1营收超出了市场预期3成。也正是这组漂亮的数据,带动了拼多多股价的大涨。不过财报另一个数据——GMV,却面临着业界人士的质疑。拼多多在财报中没有直接披露2020年Q1的GMV,只是称截止2020年3月30日过去12个月的GMV同比增长了108%,有人根据历史数据和财报披露的增速,推算出拼多多上个季度的GMV同比增长99%,相当于是去年同期的两倍。今年一季度正值国内疫情高峰,各地纷纷执行封闭式管理,整体经济被按下暂停键,零售商业受到了严重冲击。由于物流体系在很长一段时间内陷入停滞,2月份社会化快递几乎全面停运,从3月份才慢慢恢复,导致电商行业整体遭受重挫。春节后普遍宅家两个月的我们,对此都有亲身感受。第三方的数据也可以佐证,据国家邮政总局披露的数据显示,2020年一季度全国快递单量仅仅同比增长3%,而快递收入甚至同比略微下滑。京东和阿里的财报虽然没直接提及该季GMV,但从财报的收入和活跃买家等数据来推算,它们的GMV应该有一定的同比增长,其中京东由于自营物流的天然优势受影响较小,其同比增速应不低于两位数。但在拼多多同比翻倍的GMV增速面前,阿里和京东都显得黯然失色。由于拼多多物流体系最为薄弱,在三大电商平台中应该是受疫情冲击最大的一家。有人推测,拼多多财报GMV高速增长反直觉,有以下几种可能:1、平台成交但未在当季完成发货交付的比例较高;2、平台统计口径不同等原因带来的数据“水份”。3、国家邮政总局的数据可能有遗漏不全之处。其中3的可能性比较小,因为快递业数字化管理程度远高于其他行业,邮政总局可全面掌握行业大数据。2的可能确实存在,因为今年一季度快递停摆比较严重,平台对商家发货时效有所放宽。但春节期间补货本来就困难,加上今年疫情的影响,商家上架销售的存货并不多,有影响但不大。三个因素之中,数2的可能性最大。因为现实中,不同的电商平台有各自不同的统计口径,比如阿里曾声明天猫GMV的口径是“完成了支付的”(订单),接近于成交额,拼多多的GMV口径很可能与传统电商平台有所不同。这是有据可考的,去年11月27日,拼多多在质询回函中曾隐晦表示,其GMV包含了取消和退款的订单。不同的口径下,相同的指标计算会产生较大的出入,这或是拼多多财报和外界印象相去较远的主要原因。恰好有第三方研究机构发布过今年前几个月各大电商平台的GMV数据,可供参考。5月18日,由数据分析机构“超对称”举办的一场在线公开课中,首次披露电商平台疫情后恢复调查数据。今年1-3月,拼多多的GMV大约1940多亿元,同比增长28%。这个数据与大众的直觉相符,和邮政总局的行业大数据也不矛盾,应该更接近于大众统计口径下的情形。即:拼多多在疫情后出现报复性增长的可能性很小,而是与行业整体一样正处于缓慢的恢复中。这表明,由于在物流、供应链等方面的短板,拼多多无法像阿里通过菜鸟网络、京东通过自有物流那样,迅速作出调整增加物流运力,以推动平台商家复工。疫情并没有成为拼多多的推进器,反而更像一块试金石,照出了它的短板。份额易得,核心竞争力难换去年8月发布当年Q2财报时,拼多多曾经预计将在今年实现年度盈利,并将利润率目标定为5%。过去几个季度以来,拼多多确实在往这个方向努力,曾连续多个季度都实现亏损收窄。不过,拼多多的预计目标今年极可能要落空。这次Q1财报,拼多多的亏损不但没有收窄反而大幅扩大。今年一季度拼多多归属于普通股股东的净亏损为41.193亿元,而2019年同期为18.877亿元,同比亏损扩大了118.21%,远远超过了营收44%的同比增速。拼多多今年一季度的总运营支出为人民币91.08亿元,而2019年同期为人民币57.624亿元,同比增加了58%。说细一些,拼多多总运营支出大体可分为两大类:一是销售与市场推广费用高达72.97亿元,同比增长49%;二是收入总成本为18.32亿元,较2019年同期的人民币8.733亿元增长110%。对此,拼多多给出的解释是:一方面是在疫情期间,为了帮助商家主动降低平台营销成本,还将相当流量资源免费支持给了医疗用品等类目;另一方面,拼多多加大在技术、产品和商品直接补贴上的持续投入,如补贴、带宽成本等。这个解释在市场费用上确实说得通,但不争的事实是:运营成本增速超过了营收,未能呈现出随着规模扩大而平均成本下降的应有趋势,表明拼多多在成本控制方面做得并不理想。作为成长型企业,出现战略性亏损其次并不可怕,早前亚马逊曾经连续亏损了差不多20年。投资人之所以认可亚马逊的长期亏损,是因为它坚持长期投资技术研发和高效的全球性物流体系,亏损换回来的是日后成为其核心竞争力的重要固定资产。但拼多多的情况却不一样,其亏损主要源于市场营销疯狂烧钱,性质上更像前两天被纳斯达克通知退市的瑞幸咖啡,巨额补贴换回只是暂时的市场份额,而不是核心竞争力。巨额补贴能不能帮拼多多赢得用户的忠诚度呢?拼多多Q1财报显示,“月活/年度买家的指标,从2019年一季度的65.4%提升到了2020年一季度的77.6%”,看起来很是乐观,但实际情况未必如此。烧钱补贴换市场是近年来互联网企业快速做大的玩法,像外卖和网约车巨头,都是通过烧钱做到市场垄断地位。但如果没有足够的护城河,即便获得了市场地位这种打法也未必可靠。比如说滴滴,在并购优步之后成为了国内网约车市场的绝对老大,但在面对高德打车等后来者仍不轻松,因为它缺乏流量入口、用户忠诚度等核心竞争力。拼多多与之类似,虽然近年来发展很快,但从目前观察来看,它除了价格相对低之外,没有形成自己的核心竞争力。在品质、物流和服务均不如对手的情况下,拼多多绝无可能将阿里、京东逼退市场形成垄断。即,拼多多烧钱补贴来的用户,或和滴滴一样并不牢靠。拼多多大多数用户是冲着商品价格便宜而来,而目前的利好指标是在持续性的巨额补贴下获得的。拼多多不可能一直亏损,当巨额补贴停止后这种价格优势便将不复存在。届时,拼多多物流慢、服务落后、体验差等种种不足便会全面显现出来,成为影响用户消费行为的关键因素,用户会不会流向其他平台呢?答案是肯定的,作为理性的消费者,货比三家选择适合自己的商家或平台是极为正常的行为。想必大家都有印象,当年补贴大战时,几乎所有消费者都是跟着爸爸们的补贴走,丝毫没有品牌忠诚度。巨额补贴正在成为拼多多的双刃剑,一方面确实有效地拉来了新增用户、提高了GMV;另一方面造成长期巨亏,形成了补贴依赖症不敢中止,否则极可能因为价格上涨而造成用户大量流失。拼多多在财报中表示,公司现金储备充足,百亿补贴仍会持续,并不断扩大补贴的品类与商品数量。这个姿态在消费者听起来确实很高,但细品之下,何尝又不是被绑上恶性价格战战车上的无奈选择?需高度警惕拼多多的泡沫国内14亿人口中,剔去老人和小孩外,电商潜在目标群体在8-9亿左右,这就是淘宝用户难以高速增长的原因。随着6亿用户时代到来,拼多多也正在一步步逼近自己的天花板,进入平缓增长阶段。从拼多多的月活用户增长就能看出这种趋势。今年Q1拼多多的月活用户为4.87亿,同比增量非常喜人,高达1.98亿,但环比增量却只有550万。而去年Q4的月活用户为4.815亿,环比增长了5180万。从上季度的近5200万新增下跌到本季度的550万,即使和去年同期相比,也不足去年同期的1/3,堪称是断崖式下跌。拼多多的GMV也走出了类似的曲线。整理了拼多多财报提到的历季度过去12个月的GMV,如下图。不难看出,近几个季度来其GMV在增长,但增速明显下降。其中同比增速正在逼近100%以内,而环比增速则从3成以上降至了2成以内。拼多多财报发布前夕,彭博综合37位分析师进行了预估:拼多多2020年Q1营收将达49.69亿元,较去年同期增长9.3%,或出现同比增速新低;调整后净亏损26.70亿元,较去年同期继续扩大93.6%。虽然营收65.41亿元超过分析师预期,但拼多多的巨额亏损却没逃出他们的判断。实际31.966亿元的调整后净亏损甚至还比他们预估的高了5.2亿元,亏损率达到了67%,为上市以来最大的一次。我们都知道,今天的股价是投资者对企业未来价值的折现预估。早前拼多多处于高增长阶段,投资者对其的主要考核指标是成长率。当高成长的故事不再,拼多多将面临着投资者要求赢利的压力,而巨额补贴则成为沉重的包袱。Q1财报发布之后,拼多多迎来了股价上涨,周五报收为68.7美元。而此前5月21日,彭博综合37位分析师之前给出的平均目标股价为46.23美元,二者相差22.47美元。这个接近50%的差距,代表着普通投资者和专业分析师对于拼多多长期价值的不同判断。从专业分析师的角度来看,拼多多作为一个依赖巨额补助扩张的电商平台,尚不值68.7美元,其股价存在着较大的泡沫。投资者应该将对拼多多的关注点从成长率及时转向盈利方面,否则很容易作出不当判断,遭遇较大的投资风险。免责声明:自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体,版权归原作者所有,转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人,不代表新浪立场。若内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险,入市需谨慎。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":418408,"gmtCreate":1551887216794,"gmtModify":1704791722772,"author":{"id":"9719552934023","authorId":"9719552934023","name":"georgeshen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"9719552934023","authorIdStr":"9719552934023"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 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