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2020-03-12

感觉有点道理啊。不过，这是个比烂的时代，别的国家经济也有一堆问题.进入比谁更快崩溃的时候了？

美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门

2017-10-20

大亏为何还暴涨？

$爱立信(ERIC)$不懂了！难道美股也有重组概念？

大亏为何还暴涨？

2017-08-02

$科通芯城(00400)$玩了一下小心跳啊

2017-06-30

一周游的行情啊

$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI)$涨了一周就调头了

一周游的行情啊

2017-06-25

请教：美股有没有类似国内这样的？

就是请教大家账户里的短期闲置资金怎么处理？

请教：美股有没有类似国内这样的？

2017-06-23

这一波目标会是？

$SPDR S&P Biotech ETF(XBI)$这两三天的功夫涨得挺快啊！

这一波目标会是？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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08:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178354444","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所","content":"<p><span>正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现倒闭潮。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然，倒闭潮不是油价在跌破48美元那一刻就会立即发生，因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本。等到油井干涸后（页岩油油井生命周期只有2-3年，需要不断投入资本开采新的油井，才能保证产量），如果油价在此期间没有回升，那不但页岩油公司无法继续生产维持产量，用于支撑其庞大资本投入的债务也将违约。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以油价短期下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题，而巨大的炸弹引信就从这里点燃。</span></p>\n<p><span>整个市场目前也正在演着这一逻辑演进着。美国页岩油公司SM Energy发行的总规模4.77亿美元的公司债周一一开盘价格就出现了腰斩，从90美分跌到了42美分。这只是冰山一角，很多页岩油公司的债务都在油价腰斩的同时，同步腰斩。</span></p>\n<p><span>整个美国油气公司的公司债债券市场有多大？9360亿美元！周一一开盘超过1000亿美元的油气公司债的收益率与美国国债的利差就超过了10%！（公司债与美国国债间的利差是衡量公司债违约风险的重要指标之一，利差越高违约风险越大）</span></p>\n<p><b><span>一共不就1000亿美元的公司债么？就算全没了又能怎样！？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>油气公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），油气公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。</span></p>\n<p><span>图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f1b9e517c480fb73bf7e96d4090046c\"><span>虽然涨幅挺大，但实际利差才不到2.4%，应该还好吧。</span></p>\n<p><span>首先，这是美联储滞后2-3天的数据，现在应该高更多；更加重要的是，这种利差上升一旦开启，将是巨浪级的连锁反应，特别是在美联储已经没有太多降息空间的情况下，更是如此。</span></p>\n<p><span>为什么呢？因为随着利差的上升，美联储又没有足够弹药帮忙人为降低公司债利率的情况下，随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有多大？3万亿美元！占整个公司债市场的50%！</span></b></p>\n<p><span>08年之前，BBB级的占比大约也就是在20-25%。但是随着此后欧美央行长期保持低利率，让更多原本应该是垃圾级的债券变成了BBB级（垃圾级市场较小，因为很多机构不允许买垃圾级债券，但变成BBB级之后市场就越做越大，再加上利率不断走低，让BBB级更加受欢迎）；同时BBB级债券还被用用于股票回购：发债的成本很多只有3-4%，但公司在内部测算股票成本时的市场要求收益率一般都在10%以上，用不到一半成本的公司债去置换股票是小学生都会算的帐。</span></p>\n<p><span>图：结果就是这样的（灰色部分是BBB级公司债的规模变化情况）</span><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2640f11ed3b5ca12ebf586aef6ddb0bf\"><span>而多数的油气公司债都处在BBB级区间，油气板块爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮。</span></p>\n<p><span>被评为BBB级债券的企业发行人，其实际上离垃圾级仅一步之遥。更确切地说如果不是因为长期低利率，这些发行人本身就是垃圾级。在利差上升的情况下，据新债王冈德拉赫测算，美国三分之一到二分之一的BBB级债券都会被打回原形。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>等事情发展到这一程度时，就是美国公司债危机全面爆发之日，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。</span></b><span>而油价暴跌后保持低位时间越长，这一天也就越近。</span></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴跌算什么，这才是美国经济的命门\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-12 08:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。\n油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67ddaab67c271192b52371b38356b471","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dQSaylKcALZu3D80s_3pHw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1178354444","content_text":"正在全球关注美股活久见的暴跌，见证历史时刻的时候，真正的历史时刻其实还没来。股市下跌对于美国经济冲击的远不如油价下跌。\n等等！油价下跌不是有利于降低经济运行成本，有利于美国经济么？如果看一下油价背后所关联的东西，就会明白，这颗炸弹的引信已然点燃。\n油价下跌的第一轮冲击是美国的页岩油公司。目前美国页岩油公司需要 48美元以上的油价才能“打平”综合生产成本，油价在48美元以下，美国页岩油行业就要出现倒闭潮。\n当然，倒闭潮不是油价在跌破48美元那一刻就会立即发生，因为页岩油公司测算的所谓成本里面很多都是“沉没成本”，油价就算只有10美元/桶，页岩油公司都要照样生产——一方面是寄希望于此后的油价回升；另一方面是能收回多少就收回多少成本。等到油井干涸后（页岩油油井生命周期只有2-3年，需要不断投入资本开采新的油井，才能保证产量），如果油价在此期间没有回升，那不但页岩油公司无法继续生产维持产量，用于支撑其庞大资本投入的债务也将违约。\n所以油价短期下跌的连锁冲击需要一点时间才能显现，但页岩油公司的债务由于预期会首先出现问题，而巨大的炸弹引信就从这里点燃。\n整个市场目前也正在演着这一逻辑演进着。美国页岩油公司SM Energy发行的总规模4.77亿美元的公司债周一一开盘价格就出现了腰斩，从90美分跌到了42美分。这只是冰山一角，很多页岩油公司的债务都在油价腰斩的同时，同步腰斩。\n整个美国油气公司的公司债债券市场有多大？9360亿美元！周一一开盘超过1000亿美元的油气公司债的收益率与美国国债的利差就超过了10%！（公司债与美国国债间的利差是衡量公司债违约风险的重要指标之一，利差越高违约风险越大）\n一共不就1000亿美元的公司债么？就算全没了又能怎样！？\n油气公司债不是孤立存在的真空，其与整个美国公司债市场紧密关联，公司债和公司债之间的收益率是有强正相关关系的（这主要是因为整个经济是相互关联的——一个部门出现了严重问题将影响整个产业链，继而传导至整个经济，所以公司债市场的利率关联性是以经济现实为基础的。），油气公司债的利率大幅上行将带动整个美国市场公司债利率。这也是市场上目前正在发生的事情。\n图：美联储监控的美国BBB级公司债利率与国债利差变化情况虽然涨幅挺大，但实际利差才不到2.4%，应该还好吧。\n首先，这是美联储滞后2-3天的数据，现在应该高更多；更加重要的是，这种利差上升一旦开启，将是巨浪级的连锁反应，特别是在美联储已经没有太多降息空间的情况下，更是如此。\n为什么呢？因为随着利差的上升，美联储又没有足够弹药帮忙人为降低公司债利率的情况下，随着利率越来越高，原先能还得起债的公司就会变得还不起（现金流没变，但利息支出更高了），特别是那些离垃圾级债券仅一步之遥的BBB级债券最为危险——这些公司债后面的现金流支撑很脆弱，一旦利率升高就会被降到垃圾级，同时利率暴涨，形成恶性循环，加速企业死亡。\n美国现在因为利差上升可能被降到垃圾的BBB级债券规模有多大？3万亿美元！占整个公司债市场的50%！\n08年之前，BBB级的占比大约也就是在20-25%。但是随着此后欧美央行长期保持低利率，让更多原本应该是垃圾级的债券变成了BBB级（垃圾级市场较小，因为很多机构不允许买垃圾级债券，但变成BBB级之后市场就越做越大，再加上利率不断走低，让BBB级更加受欢迎）；同时BBB级债券还被用用于股票回购：发债的成本很多只有3-4%，但公司在内部测算股票成本时的市场要求收益率一般都在10%以上，用不到一半成本的公司债去置换股票是小学生都会算的帐。\n图：结果就是这样的（灰色部分是BBB级公司债的规模变化情况）而多数的油气公司债都处在BBB级区间，油气板块爆掉，将引爆大规模的BBB级债券收益率跟着上升，以及大规模的降级潮。\n被评为BBB级债券的企业发行人，其实际上离垃圾级仅一步之遥。更确切地说如果不是因为长期低利率，这些发行人本身就是垃圾级。在利差上升的情况下，据新债王冈德拉赫测算，美国三分之一到二分之一的BBB级债券都会被打回原形。\n等事情发展到这一程度时，就是美国公司债危机全面爆发之日，其冲击力将不会亚于08年经济危机。而油价暴跌后保持低位时间越长，这一天也就越近。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":104407,"gmtCreate":1508507153818,"gmtModify":1704882443639,"author":{"id":"52397425785384","authorId":"52397425785384","name":"YDWR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"大亏为何还暴涨？","htmlText":"$爱立信(ERIC)$不懂了！难道美股也有重组概念？","listText":"$爱立信(ERIC)$不懂了！难道美股也有重组概念？","text":"$爱立信(ERIC)$不懂了！难道美股也有重组概念？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/104407","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":950,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3460273834993918","authorId":"3460273834993918","name":"笑看云起","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"“爱立信第三季度净亏损之所以大幅扩大，是因为计入了28亿瑞典克朗（约合3.44亿美元）的重组支出。”","text":"“爱立信第三季度净亏损之所以大幅扩大，是因为计入了28亿瑞典克朗（约合3.44亿美元）的重组支出。”","html":"“爱立信第三季度净亏损之所以大幅扩大，是因为计入了28亿瑞典克朗（约合3.44亿美元）的重组支出。”"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":80057,"gmtCreate":1501642021997,"gmtModify":1704879512663,"author":{"id":"52397425785384","authorId":"52397425785384","name":"YDWR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$科通芯城(00400)$玩了一下小心跳啊","listText":"$科通芯城(00400)$玩了一下小心跳啊","text":"$科通芯城(00400)$玩了一下小心跳啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/80057","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":918,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":70979,"gmtCreate":1498831713286,"gmtModify":1704878390789,"author":{"id":"52397425785384","authorId":"52397425785384","name":"YDWR","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"一周游的行情啊","htmlText":"$SPDR 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