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补充道：“美联储官员会说，考虑到经济的韧性，降息的必要性降低了”。Bhave在一份研究报告中表示：“如果真的发生这种情况，对市场来说将是一个重大的鹰派惊吓。”</p><p><strong>二、有多少位美联储官员认为利率已经达峰？</strong></p><p>今年6月，只有三分之一的利率决策者认为加息已经完成。美联储议息会议共有18位官员，6月份有6位官员认为本轮加息周期已经结束。</p><p>Evercore ISI 副总裁Krishna Guha认为，本次美联储会议预计会出现一半的与会成员认为，加息已经结束。</p><p>Krishna Guha：“我们认为，鲍威尔将把这更多地描述为一种分裂投票，而不是进一步加息的明显倾向，将市场定价保持对此的定价也是一半的与会成员认为加息应该结束了。”</p><p><strong>三、美联储对经济预测的变化是什么？</strong></p><p>美国银行的经济学家认为，考虑到经济的强劲程度，美联储对2023年经济增长的预测将从1%上调至2%。</p><p>在通胀方面，美联储可能会将其核心PCE通胀预测从3.9%下调至3.7%。但考虑到经济的弹性，2024年的核心通胀率可能会上调十分之二，至2.8%。美联储预计2026年通胀率将达到2%。</p><p><strong>四、美联储对中性利率的预测会开始走高吗？</strong></p><p>经济学家认为，美联储可能会提高对长期中性利率的估计。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">法国巴黎银行</a>高级经济学家Yelena Shulyatyeva表示，这意味着“整个利率水平都在走高”。</p><p>2008年全球金融危机后常见的超低抵押贷款利率和其他低贷款利率，在未来一段时间内不会常见了。目前，美联储预计中性利率为2.5%，但估计范围从2.375%到3.625%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>本周美联储议息会议，只需密切关注四个要点</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n本周美联储议息会议，只需密切关注四个要点\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-09-19 11:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>市场广泛预期，美联储本周的会议不会再次提升利率，但美联储官员对美国经济前景以及利率前景的展望，将是关注重点。大部分焦点将集中在美联储的经济预测上，即经济预测摘要（Summary of Economic Projections）。</p><p>美国银行高级美国经济学家Aditya Bhave在给客户的一份报告中表示：<strong>“经济预测摘要可以说是9月份会议对市场最重要的方面。”</strong></p><p>整体而言，本次美联储会议的主要关注点集中在以下四个方面：</p><p><strong>一、美联储会维持2024年降息4次的预测吗？</strong></p><p>目前的美国联邦基准利率在5.25%-5.5%之间。美联储官员坚称，他们打算保持高基准利率，以继续压低通胀。6月，美联储官员预计2024年将降息4次，每次降息25个基点。一些经济学家认为，美联储降息次数将减少。</p><p>Aditya Bhave 认为，美联储本月很有可能只预测2024年降息3次。他在一次采访中表示，美联储官员一直在强调一种观点，即更高利率持续更长时间，而本次会议有可能会再次强调这种政策方向。</p><p>Aditya Bhave 补充道：“美联储官员会说，考虑到经济的韧性，降息的必要性降低了”。Bhave在一份研究报告中表示：“如果真的发生这种情况，对市场来说将是一个重大的鹰派惊吓。”</p><p><strong>二、有多少位美联储官员认为利率已经达峰？</strong></p><p>今年6月，只有三分之一的利率决策者认为加息已经完成。美联储议息会议共有18位官员，6月份有6位官员认为本轮加息周期已经结束。</p><p>Evercore ISI 副总裁Krishna Guha认为，本次美联储会议预计会出现一半的与会成员认为，加息已经结束。</p><p>Krishna Guha：“我们认为，鲍威尔将把这更多地描述为一种分裂投票，而不是进一步加息的明显倾向，将市场定价保持对此的定价也是一半的与会成员认为加息应该结束了。”</p><p><strong>三、美联储对经济预测的变化是什么？</strong></p><p>美国银行的经济学家认为，考虑到经济的强劲程度，美联储对2023年经济增长的预测将从1%上调至2%。</p><p>在通胀方面，美联储可能会将其核心PCE通胀预测从3.9%下调至3.7%。但考虑到经济的弹性，2024年的核心通胀率可能会上调十分之二，至2.8%。美联储预计2026年通胀率将达到2%。</p><p><strong>四、美联储对中性利率的预测会开始走高吗？</strong></p><p>经济学家认为，美联储可能会提高对长期中性利率的估计。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0HB5.UK\">法国巴黎银行</a>高级经济学家Yelena Shulyatyeva表示，这意味着“整个利率水平都在走高”。</p><p>2008年全球金融危机后常见的超低抵押贷款利率和其他低贷款利率，在未来一段时间内不会常见了。目前，美联储预计中性利率为2.5%，但估计范围从2.375%到3.625%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c7529fdbb41cb6b3c19bcb2904f4970","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5ODQ4MjgyMQ==&mid=2651267133&idx=6&sn=50b67029621f2bbb1975036c7fe3abe5&chksm=bd3986d78a4e0fc1a24a75532a18952fafa1563d76256b179f99164cc21ab91d6db9f8c861bd&scene=0#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2368894701","content_text":"市场广泛预期，美联储本周的会议不会再次提升利率，但美联储官员对美国经济前景以及利率前景的展望，将是关注重点。大部分焦点将集中在美联储的经济预测上，即经济预测摘要（Summary of Economic Projections）。美国银行高级美国经济学家Aditya Bhave在给客户的一份报告中表示：“经济预测摘要可以说是9月份会议对市场最重要的方面。”整体而言，本次美联储会议的主要关注点集中在以下四个方面：一、美联储会维持2024年降息4次的预测吗？目前的美国联邦基准利率在5.25%-5.5%之间。美联储官员坚称，他们打算保持高基准利率，以继续压低通胀。6月，美联储官员预计2024年将降息4次，每次降息25个基点。一些经济学家认为，美联储降息次数将减少。Aditya Bhave 认为，美联储本月很有可能只预测2024年降息3次。他在一次采访中表示，美联储官员一直在强调一种观点，即更高利率持续更长时间，而本次会议有可能会再次强调这种政策方向。Aditya Bhave 补充道：“美联储官员会说，考虑到经济的韧性，降息的必要性降低了”。Bhave在一份研究报告中表示：“如果真的发生这种情况，对市场来说将是一个重大的鹰派惊吓。”二、有多少位美联储官员认为利率已经达峰？今年6月，只有三分之一的利率决策者认为加息已经完成。美联储议息会议共有18位官员，6月份有6位官员认为本轮加息周期已经结束。Evercore ISI 副总裁Krishna Guha认为，本次美联储会议预计会出现一半的与会成员认为，加息已经结束。Krishna Guha：“我们认为，鲍威尔将把这更多地描述为一种分裂投票，而不是进一步加息的明显倾向，将市场定价保持对此的定价也是一半的与会成员认为加息应该结束了。”三、美联储对经济预测的变化是什么？美国银行的经济学家认为，考虑到经济的强劲程度，美联储对2023年经济增长的预测将从1%上调至2%。在通胀方面，美联储可能会将其核心PCE通胀预测从3.9%下调至3.7%。但考虑到经济的弹性，2024年的核心通胀率可能会上调十分之二，至2.8%。美联储预计2026年通胀率将达到2%。四、美联储对中性利率的预测会开始走高吗？经济学家认为，美联储可能会提高对长期中性利率的估计。法国巴黎银行高级经济学家Yelena Shulyatyeva表示，这意味着“整个利率水平都在走高”。2008年全球金融危机后常见的超低抵押贷款利率和其他低贷款利率，在未来一段时间内不会常见了。目前，美联储预计中性利率为2.5%，但估计范围从2.375%到3.625%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
