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class=\"title\">\n美股“喜迎”特朗普交易,麦格理提示风险:长期政治暴力对市场“非常不利”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-16 12:16 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1151377.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经获悉,特朗普遭遇枪击后,美国股市周一出现反弹,投资者认为他获胜的可能性加大。甚至在周六的枪击发生之前,投资者就预计加密货币、美元和一些石油股等某些资产将从特朗普连任总统中受益,现在华尔街似乎更确信他将赢得大选。但周一的反弹并不意味着市场已经明朗。麦格理全球外汇和利率策略师Thierry Wizman在周一上午发布的一份分析报告中写道:“历史告诉我们,民主社会中长期的政治暴力对市场和冒险非常...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1151377.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/466959807316d10c46e1c43a21e3349e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1151377.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2451936995","content_text":"智通财经获悉,特朗普遭遇枪击后,美国股市周一出现反弹,投资者认为他获胜的可能性加大。甚至在周六的枪击发生之前,投资者就预计加密货币、美元和一些石油股等某些资产将从特朗普连任总统中受益,现在华尔街似乎更确信他将赢得大选。但周一的反弹并不意味着市场已经明朗。麦格理全球外汇和利率策略师Thierry Wizman在周一上午发布的一份分析报告中写道:“历史告诉我们,民主社会中长期的政治暴力对市场和冒险非常不利。”分析人士称这种交易为“特朗普交易”,指的是如果他上台,有关的资产类别有望表现更好。他列举了1968年至80年代中期的意大利“铅年”(Years of Lead),以及60年代末至1998年的北爱尔兰问题。意大利的“铅年”是新法西斯主义和共产主义恐怖组织之间旷日持久的政治斗争,其中包括多次爆炸事件,以及1978年对总理阿尔多·莫罗的绑架和暗杀。在北爱尔兰的冲突中,新教徒和天主教徒卷入了是否留在英国的游击战,导致3600人丧生。根据Wizman的说法,这两个暴力时期的最终特征是投资减少,人才外流,因为有才能的人去国外寻找职业机会,以及旅游业的减少。Wizman表示,如果这里的政治暴力继续下去,外国投资者就会对美国投资三思。Wizman称:“从一个局外人的角度来看,美国将不再是一个适合投资和创业的地方。”而且由于美国是世界上最大的经济体,它面临的任何问题都会比北爱尔兰和意大利的问题产生更广泛的全球影响。据Wizman说,如果美国经济因持续的政治暴力而受到打击,它将“蔓延到世界其他地区”,影响全球贸易、全球安全和国际法的保护。他说:“我们是最大的发达民主国家和经济体,所以确实没有先例。”Wizman补充说,美国经济也面临顽固的通货膨胀,而政治暴力可能会加剧通货膨胀。长期以来,市场一直预计特朗普在大选中获胜将导致通胀加剧,这可能是另一轮企业减税、对所有外国商品征收关税和放松管制的结果。这反映在每次特朗普似乎获得选举支持时,美国国债收益率就会上升,就像在周六的枪击发生后的那样。Wizman在报告中写道,周一,30年期美国国债收益率达到了与2年期美国国债相同的水平,目前都在4.46%左右徘徊。债券收益率在6月的总统辩论后也出现上涨,当时拜登总统的表现创历史新低,这增加了特朗普在11月获胜的可能性。Wizman确实指出,债券收益率上升是特朗普在选举中获胜的结果,而不是因为可能发生政治暴力。事实上,在政治动荡时期,债券价格往往会上涨,因此收益率会下降,因为投资者纷纷将其视为相对安全的资产。在暗杀事件发生后,政治领导人强调团结。拜登总统周末两次向全国发表讲话,一次是在周六特朗普遇袭几个小时后,另一次是周日在椭圆形办公室发表讲话。拜登周日表示:“在美国,虽然团结是目前最难以实现的目标,但现在对我们来说,没有什么比团结起来更重要。”特朗普也表达了统一的语气。“在这一刻,比以往任何时候都更重要的是,我们团结一致,展示我们作为美国人的真实性格,保持坚强和决心,不允许邪恶获胜,”这位前总统在他的Truth 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