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12:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储已经明确告诉股市：不要大涨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175436624","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎，只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹，将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。美东时间周三下午，美联储发布了1","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎，只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。</blockquote><p>美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹，将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。</p><p>美东时间周三下午，美联储发布了12月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要中提到，与会者指出，由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥重要作用，所以金融环境不合理的放松（unwarranted easing），特别是因公众误解（FOMC）委员会反应功能而驱动的放松，将让委员会恢复价格稳定的努力变得复杂。</p><p><b>这被分析师和经济学家视为对金融市场参与者的警告，即对美联储在2023年进行政策转向的押注并不受政策制定者的欢迎；而且，在股市反弹甚至整体金融条件放松的情况下，这些押注只会迫使FOMC把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。</b></p><p>Navellier & Associates总裁兼创始人 Louis Navellier 在周四的一份报告中表示：</p><blockquote>用通俗点的话来说，美联储暗示，FOMC成员们不喜欢股市上涨，因为他们担心这可能导致潜在的消费者支出通胀。</blockquote><p>BMO 资本市场利率策略师 Ian Lyngen 和 Benjamin Jeffery 在周三的一份报告中写道：“会议纪要显示，美联储又在刻意劝阻市场不要相信美联储将在2023年触发看跌期权。”</p><p>当楼市或者资本市场出现大动荡，资产价格大幅下跌的时候，美联储对市场注入流动性避免出现危机，这种现象被“美联储看跌期权”。自上世纪80年代末以来，数千名交易员、投资者和分析师都习惯了美联储看跌期权，他们相信，在动荡时刻，政策制定者总是会通过缩减加息计划或直接降息来支撑市场，因此，许多投资者总是会逢低买入。</p><p>国会证券管理公司（Capitol Securities Management）首席经济策略师 Kent Engelke 在周四的一份报告中表示，这份会议纪要清楚地表明，<b>“众所周知的美联储看跌期权机制已经正式消亡”。</b></p><p>周五，美股大涨，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.1%，标普500指数上涨2.28%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨2.6%；另外，美国12月非农就业报告显示，工资增长意外放缓，ISM服务业指数跌至收缩区间。</p><p>一些市场观察人士想知道，美联储政策制定者会对市场的反应有何反应。目前，美债收益率继续下跌，市场对美联储2月1日加息25个基点的押注从有所提高。</p><p>法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）经济学家 Carl Riccadonna、Yelena Shulyatyeva 和 Andrew Schneider 认为，<b>这份非农就业报告在一定程度上缓解了美联储在2月1日加息50个基点的压力，但政策制定者似乎对市场定价越来越没有耐心，因为美联储与市场在联邦基金利率的峰值和首次降息时机方面存在分歧。</b></p><p>牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家 Ryan Sweet 在周三的一份报告中表示：</p><blockquote>会议纪要明确强调了美联储对通胀的关注，但也强调了他们对金融市场状况开始松动的不满，他们认为这阻碍了他们实现价格稳定的努力。</blockquote><blockquote>从会议纪要中可以看出，美联储将冒着伤害劳动力市场和更广泛经济的风险降低通胀。</blockquote><p>Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席经济学家 Ian Shepherdson 也认为，美联储提到金融状况是为了传达一种信息，即投资者不应指望政策制定者在经济数据出现明显的重大转变之前，会放松通胀底线。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储已经明确告诉股市：不要大涨 </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n美联储已经明确告诉股市：不要大涨 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-01-08 12:11 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679288><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎，只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹，将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。美东时间周三下午，美联储发布了12月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要中提到，与会者指出，由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥重要作用，所以金融环境不合理的放松（unwarranted easing），特别是因公众误解（FOMC）委员会反应功能而...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679288\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3679288","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175436624","content_text":"市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎，只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹，将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。美东时间周三下午，美联储发布了12月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要中提到，与会者指出，由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥重要作用，所以金融环境不合理的放松（unwarranted easing），特别是因公众误解（FOMC）委员会反应功能而驱动的放松，将让委员会恢复价格稳定的努力变得复杂。这被分析师和经济学家视为对金融市场参与者的警告，即对美联储在2023年进行政策转向的押注并不受政策制定者的欢迎；而且，在股市反弹甚至整体金融条件放松的情况下，这些押注只会迫使FOMC把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。Navellier & Associates总裁兼创始人 Louis Navellier 在周四的一份报告中表示：用通俗点的话来说，美联储暗示，FOMC成员们不喜欢股市上涨，因为他们担心这可能导致潜在的消费者支出通胀。BMO 资本市场利率策略师 Ian Lyngen 和 Benjamin Jeffery 在周三的一份报告中写道：“会议纪要显示，美联储又在刻意劝阻市场不要相信美联储将在2023年触发看跌期权。”当楼市或者资本市场出现大动荡，资产价格大幅下跌的时候，美联储对市场注入流动性避免出现危机，这种现象被“美联储看跌期权”。自上世纪80年代末以来，数千名交易员、投资者和分析师都习惯了美联储看跌期权，他们相信，在动荡时刻，政策制定者总是会通过缩减加息计划或直接降息来支撑市场，因此，许多投资者总是会逢低买入。国会证券管理公司（Capitol Securities Management）首席经济策略师 Kent Engelke 在周四的一份报告中表示，这份会议纪要清楚地表明，“众所周知的美联储看跌期权机制已经正式消亡”。周五，美股大涨，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.1%，标普500指数上涨2.28%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨2.6%；另外，美国12月非农就业报告显示，工资增长意外放缓，ISM服务业指数跌至收缩区间。一些市场观察人士想知道，美联储政策制定者会对市场的反应有何反应。目前，美债收益率继续下跌，市场对美联储2月1日加息25个基点的押注从有所提高。法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）经济学家 Carl Riccadonna、Yelena Shulyatyeva 和 Andrew Schneider 认为，这份非农就业报告在一定程度上缓解了美联储在2月1日加息50个基点的压力，但政策制定者似乎对市场定价越来越没有耐心，因为美联储与市场在联邦基金利率的峰值和首次降息时机方面存在分歧。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家 Ryan Sweet 在周三的一份报告中表示：会议纪要明确强调了美联储对通胀的关注，但也强调了他们对金融市场状况开始松动的不满，他们认为这阻碍了他们实现价格稳定的努力。从会议纪要中可以看出，美联储将冒着伤害劳动力市场和更广泛经济的风险降低通胀。Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席经济学家 Ian Shepherdson 也认为，美联储提到金融状况是为了传达一种信息，即投资者不应指望政策制定者在经济数据出现明显的重大转变之前，会放松通胀底线。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":31,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
