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李飨
2022-07-13
上海生意好得很
抱歉,原内容已删除
李飨
2022-07-13
老大说的,很准么
抱歉,原内容已删除
李飨
2022-07-10
期待
@交易员Owen:衰退恐慌的深处,终于传来了利好
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次暴跌,看来,市场在权衡了衰退威胁和中M关税破冰的利好后,仍然是担忧盖过了对未来","text":"欧元崩盘了,这个支撑欧洲经济的货币终于在巨大的通胀面前再次出现突然的塌陷。其实严格来说,欧元从去年2月份乌俄战争开始之后,就一路崩跌,去年下半年虽然还有短暂的反弹,但之后的跌势就势如破竹,被20周均线死死的压住,再难有回升的起色。所以这次闪跌来的并不意外,如果你是位外汇交易的爱好者,不妨看下这次欧元是否可以破前低,因为从技术上讲,破前低后下方的空间会被再次打开。除了欧元,欧盟股指几乎复制了欧元的走势,也在崩跌的路上越走越远。原因很简单,当市场还在估算欧洲在巨大的通胀压力面前能扛住多长时间时,突然发现作为欧洲最大的贸易伙伴和产品出口市场的美国即将陷入衰退了,恐慌被再度引爆,欧元,欧股突然计价衰退预期而再次下跌。而美元在欧元的贬值压力下,被挤压向上要知道,欧洲能源对外依赖度很大,根据最新统计数据,欧洲的消费来源中仅不到4成的能源来自于自产,超过6的能源都依赖于进口,所以当美国遭遇高企的能源价格的时候,这个压力应该要乘以2到3倍再附加到欧洲诸国身上。面对高物价,欧洲比美国要难得多,同时也无奈的多。欧洲本身就是分裂的组合,当铁娘子默克尔退下来以后,马克龙难以接过大旗来使全欧盟实现统一的市场,对外,他也难以让乌俄战争短时间内停火,或者在短期内找到可代替的能源进口,所以,如果美国真的陷入衰退,市场的萧条会像病毒一样在短时间内蔓延到整个欧美国家,发达国家的市场会很快笼罩在衰退的阴影之中。中M关税放松预期兑现,市场却没有买账终于,拜登绷不住了。之前我们一再提到的利好也终于在今天兑现,两国高层已经就放松两国关税开始交涉,不出预料,A股走出了一个典型的买预期卖事实的走势,在预期中的利好兑现后,不断试图冲高的上证指数终于开始放松,有了回调的迹象。但你要注意的是,当关税放松的消息爆出来后,原油并没有上涨,欧元和欧股也再次暴跌,看来,市场在权衡了衰退威胁和中M关税破冰的利好后,仍然是担忧盖过了对未来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2239503762927e152f81aee639f169c1","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a0dd4c5f656c151a150a467f9cfbb32","width":"1080","height":"489"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcbc651471162d53b7434c3eaf5ae672","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/681252562","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688287607,"gmtCreate":1657686832516,"gmtModify":1704867971866,"author":{"id":"4120144607785070","authorId":"4120144607785070","name":"李飨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8168296ca1b7a1190f5225d5bb74ce9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120144607785070","authorIdStr":"4120144607785070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"上海生意好得很","listText":"上海生意好得很","text":"上海生意好得很","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688287607","repostId":"2250916669","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2250916669","pubTimestamp":1657606296,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2250916669?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-07-12 14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Costco CEO警告:很多美国消费者现在已经身陷衰退","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2250916669","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"部分“消费者支出疲软”是一个不祥的迹象,表明经济衰退可能就在不远的前方。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国经济衰退风险悄然四起,市场紧盯任何衰退的蛛丝马迹,消费者支出成了关注焦点。</p><p>整体来看,美国消费者状态良好,但这并不能说明全部情况,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COST\">好市多</a>CEO谈到了一个难以忽视的事实,<b>即并非所有消费状况都是健康的,一些消费者已经开始使用小额贷款来支付汽油和食品杂货费用。</b></p><p>周一,好市多costco首席执行官Craig Jelinek在接受媒体采访时表示,虽然整体消费状况不错,但也有很多美国消费者现在已经身陷衰退。Jelinek指出:</p><blockquote>消费者正在变得更加谨慎,珠宝等奢侈品消费开始放缓,许多消费者已不再购买电脑和电视。</blockquote><blockquote><b>低收入群体正处于衰退中,他们现在只购买汽油、支付房屋租金来生存,</b>而富裕家庭仍然有“购买商品的可自由支配收入”。</blockquote><p>Jelinek在采访中揭示了低收入群体的消费现状,他们的信用卡额度已经用完,个人储蓄也被耗尽,已经开始缩减支出。</p><p>由于美国70%的GDP是由消费拉动的,<b>“消费者支出疲软”是一个不祥的迹象,表明经济衰退可能就在不远的前方。</b></p><p><b>其他的指标也显示出负面迹象,</b>美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心创历史最低,然后是美国“痛苦指数”——将失业率与通货膨胀率结合在一起衡量家庭幸福感的指标回到了1970s“大滞胀”时期的水平,上周五的非农就业数据也不想表面上那么强劲,其显示一些人同时从事多份工作,这表明消费者并不强大。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Costco CEO警告:很多美国消费者现在已经身陷衰退</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCostco CEO警告:很多美国消费者现在已经身陷衰退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-12 14:11 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664495><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国经济衰退风险悄然四起,市场紧盯任何衰退的蛛丝马迹,消费者支出成了关注焦点。整体来看,美国消费者状态良好,但这并不能说明全部情况,好市多CEO谈到了一个难以忽视的事实,即并非所有消费状况都是健康的,一些消费者已经开始使用小额贷款来支付汽油和食品杂货费用。周一,好市多costco首席执行官Craig Jelinek在接受媒体采访时表示,虽然整体消费状况不错,但也有很多美国消费者现在已经身陷衰退。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664495\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7bce0c3c7ef7506ec25e3b1b48ad65c","relate_stocks":{"COST":"好市多","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4581":"高盛持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664495","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2250916669","content_text":"美国经济衰退风险悄然四起,市场紧盯任何衰退的蛛丝马迹,消费者支出成了关注焦点。整体来看,美国消费者状态良好,但这并不能说明全部情况,好市多CEO谈到了一个难以忽视的事实,即并非所有消费状况都是健康的,一些消费者已经开始使用小额贷款来支付汽油和食品杂货费用。周一,好市多costco首席执行官Craig Jelinek在接受媒体采访时表示,虽然整体消费状况不错,但也有很多美国消费者现在已经身陷衰退。Jelinek指出:消费者正在变得更加谨慎,珠宝等奢侈品消费开始放缓,许多消费者已不再购买电脑和电视。低收入群体正处于衰退中,他们现在只购买汽油、支付房屋租金来生存,而富裕家庭仍然有“购买商品的可自由支配收入”。Jelinek在采访中揭示了低收入群体的消费现状,他们的信用卡额度已经用完,个人储蓄也被耗尽,已经开始缩减支出。由于美国70%的GDP是由消费拉动的,“消费者支出疲软”是一个不祥的迹象,表明经济衰退可能就在不远的前方。其他的指标也显示出负面迹象,美国6月密歇根大学消费者信心创历史最低,然后是美国“痛苦指数”——将失业率与通货膨胀率结合在一起衡量家庭幸福感的指标回到了1970s“大滞胀”时期的水平,上周五的非农就业数据也不想表面上那么强劲,其显示一些人同时从事多份工作,这表明消费者并不强大。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":688287013,"gmtCreate":1657686047633,"gmtModify":1704867971014,"author":{"id":"4120144607785070","authorId":"4120144607785070","name":"李飨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8168296ca1b7a1190f5225d5bb74ce9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4120144607785070","authorIdStr":"4120144607785070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老大说的,很准么","listText":"老大说的,很准么","text":"老大说的,很准么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688287013","repostId":"2250916669","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}