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2022-09-20
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10:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"FOMC利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163578486","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"本周三美联储将公布万众期待的利率决定，75个基点基本上铁板钉钉，今天我们从市场的历史表现来看另外一个问题，利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？下图是今年以来的标普500指数，红圈位置是4次加息","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>本周三美联储将公布万众期待的利率决定，75个基点基本上铁板钉钉，今天我们从市场的历史表现来看另外一个问题，利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？</p><p>下图是今年以来的标普500指数，红圈位置是4次加息的FOMC利率决定日：3月16日，5月4日，6月15日和7月27日。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dff07264f8406dc65155712620cd462\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>发现1：每次FOMC利率决议日股市都上涨，也就是说，周二收盘买入，周三收盘卖出，能得到非常稳定的回报</b>。关于这个现象的原因，可能是因为在FOMC利率决议之前，市场参与者害怕美联储利率提前买入期权PUT避险，但是利率决议之后赶紧平仓PUT有关系。</p><p><b>发现2：FOMC利率决议之后，也就是周四的市场涨跌，对中期的股市走向更有指示性。</b>3月加息后的周四股市继续上涨，市场涨势延续；4月加息后的周四股市大跌，市场跌势延续；6月加息后的周四股市下跌，股市在低位徘徊；7月加息后的周四股市上涨，市场反弹继续。</p><p><b>发现3：FOMC利率决议当天，不会是一个局部的低点或者是高点。</b>这句话的意思是，市场不会以FOMC利率决议作为一个转折。如果前期在上涨，那么继续上涨的可能性高，如果前期在下跌，那么继续低迷的可能性高。</p><p>我个人觉得以上三条的实用性，远远超过去讨论多少基点或者缩表或者鸽派鹰派或者美联储各大投票委员都有什么爱好更重要。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1044785273\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-09-20 10:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>本周三美联储将公布万众期待的利率决定，75个基点基本上铁板钉钉，今天我们从市场的历史表现来看另外一个问题，利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？</p><p>下图是今年以来的标普500指数，红圈位置是4次加息的FOMC利率决定日：3月16日，5月4日，6月15日和7月27日。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dff07264f8406dc65155712620cd462\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"425\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>发现1：每次FOMC利率决议日股市都上涨，也就是说，周二收盘买入，周三收盘卖出，能得到非常稳定的回报</b>。关于这个现象的原因，可能是因为在FOMC利率决议之前，市场参与者害怕美联储利率提前买入期权PUT避险，但是利率决议之后赶紧平仓PUT有关系。</p><p><b>发现2：FOMC利率决议之后，也就是周四的市场涨跌，对中期的股市走向更有指示性。</b>3月加息后的周四股市继续上涨，市场涨势延续；4月加息后的周四股市大跌，市场跌势延续；6月加息后的周四股市下跌，股市在低位徘徊；7月加息后的周四股市上涨，市场反弹继续。</p><p><b>发现3：FOMC利率决议当天，不会是一个局部的低点或者是高点。</b>这句话的意思是，市场不会以FOMC利率决议作为一个转折。如果前期在上涨，那么继续上涨的可能性高，如果前期在下跌，那么继续低迷的可能性高。</p><p>我个人觉得以上三条的实用性，远远超过去讨论多少基点或者缩表或者鸽派鹰派或者美联储各大投票委员都有什么爱好更重要。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad08fba59cb88884ff49409dc4bf04d7","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163578486","content_text":"本周三美联储将公布万众期待的利率决定，75个基点基本上铁板钉钉，今天我们从市场的历史表现来看另外一个问题，利率决定前后市场上涨下跌，到底有什么预测性？下图是今年以来的标普500指数，红圈位置是4次加息的FOMC利率决定日：3月16日，5月4日，6月15日和7月27日。发现1：每次FOMC利率决议日股市都上涨，也就是说，周二收盘买入，周三收盘卖出，能得到非常稳定的回报。关于这个现象的原因，可能是因为在FOMC利率决议之前，市场参与者害怕美联储利率提前买入期权PUT避险，但是利率决议之后赶紧平仓PUT有关系。发现2：FOMC利率决议之后，也就是周四的市场涨跌，对中期的股市走向更有指示性。3月加息后的周四股市继续上涨，市场涨势延续；4月加息后的周四股市大跌，市场跌势延续；6月加息后的周四股市下跌，股市在低位徘徊；7月加息后的周四股市上涨，市场反弹继续。发现3：FOMC利率决议当天，不会是一个局部的低点或者是高点。这句话的意思是，市场不会以FOMC利率决议作为一个转折。如果前期在上涨，那么继续上涨的可能性高，如果前期在下跌，那么继续低迷的可能性高。我个人觉得以上三条的实用性，远远超过去讨论多少基点或者缩表或者鸽派鹰派或者美联储各大投票委员都有什么爱好更重要。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
