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2021-11-28

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$300 a Month in These 3 Stocks Could Make You a Millionaire by Retirement

2021-11-28

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Got $5,000? These 2 Stocks Could Be Bargain Buys in 2022

2021-11-27

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@马斯克的小碎催:蔚来也有未来自己的优势

2021-11-26

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@Wayneqq:Demystifying Options Part 5

2021-11-24

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@问就是加仓up:画个蔚来的未来

2021-11-24

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@3Fs:What is Baba's Intrinsic Value - With Valuation Model

2021-11-22

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Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week

2021-11-21

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Missed Out on Lucid and Rivian? 2 EV Stocks To Buy Now

2021-11-13

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@Eldenminaj:Amazon VS Alibaba: Which is the better buy?

2021-11-13

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Tesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation

2021-11-13

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@OptionPlus:Tesla plunged 12%. How to use options now?

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For example, investing $300 a month could grow into more than $1 million in 30 years if it can generate a 12% annual return. That's slightly better than the&nbsp;average stock market return&nbsp;over the last 50 years of nearly 11%.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Many companies have a long history of beating the market. Three companies that appear likely to continue doing so in the decades ahead are&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEP\"><b>Brookfield Renewable</b>&nbsp;</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCI\"><b>Crown Castle International</b>&nbsp;</a>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEE\"><b>NextEra Energy</b>&nbsp;</a>. Because of that, $100 invested in each one every month could grow into a $1 million nest egg by retirement.</p>\n<h2>Benefiting from a powerful megatrend</h2>\n<p>Brookfield Renewable has enriched its investors over the years. Since its inception, the&nbsp;renewable energy&nbsp;producer has generated an annualized total return of 19%. The company had done that by investing billions of dollars into expanding its renewable energy portfolio. That has powered more than 10% annual growth in its cash flow per share, supporting 6% annual dividend increases over the last decade. </p>\n<p>However, Brookfield's best days appear to lie ahead. The global economy needs to invest trillions of dollars to decarbonize the energy sector over the next 30 years. That should enable Brookfield to continue to invest in expanding its renewable energy portfolio.</p>\n<p>The company currently has 36 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy projects in development. That's bigger than the company's current operating portfolio of about 21 GW. Combined with rising power rates, and its growing scale, these projects should support up to 11% annual cash flow per share growth through at least 2026. </p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Brookfield sees up to another 9% yearly boost from future acquisitions. Add that growing renewable-powered cash flow stream to the company's 3%-yielding dividend, and Brookfield appears to have the power to produce double-digit annual returns for decades to come.&nbsp;</p>\n<h2>Connected to the data supercycle</h2>\n<p>Crown Castle has been an exceptional value creator over the years. The infrastructure-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) has delivered a more than 13% annual total return over the two-plus decades since its initial public offering. </p>\n<p>A major driver of those returns has been the billions of dollars the company has poured into expanding its communications infrastructure portfolio. Over the last decade alone, the REIT spent $31 billion on acquisitions and capital expenditures (capex), powering 9% annual dividend growth since 2014.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>\n<p>The company still sees significant investment opportunities ahead. Crown Castle noted that the telecom industry's rollout of&nbsp;5G networks&nbsp;represents a decade-long investment cycle. Meanwhile, some see a 100-year data infrastructure upgrade investment opportunity to support the digital economy. Because of that, Crown Castle has a lot of growth ahead of it, which should drive continued strong returns. </p>\n<p>Crown Castle expects to grow its 3.2%-yielding dividend at a 7% to 8% annual rate in the near term. That suggests the company could deliver double-digit total returns in the coming years.&nbsp;</p>\n<h2>Plugged into several growth catalysts</h2>\n<p>NextEra Energy has also created an enormous amount of wealth for its investors over the years. The&nbsp;utility&nbsp;has generated a roughly 700% total return over the last decade alone, crushing the 276% total return produced by the S&amp;P 500. Powering the company's robust results has been its ability to deliver above-average earnings and dividend growth. It has increased its earnings per share at an 8.7% compound annual rate since 2005, supporting 9.6% compound annual dividend growth. </p>\n<p>A major catalyst has been the company's leadership in renewable energy. It has grown into one of the world's largest wind and&nbsp;solar energy&nbsp;producers.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>That leadership should continue since it has one of the world's biggest backlogs of wind and solar energy development projects. In addition to tried-and-true technologies like wind and solar, NextEra is a leader in emerging technologies, including battery storage and green hydrogen. Meanwhile, it's&nbsp;tapping into other sources of growth&nbsp;like water infrastructure. Because of that, NextEra should have plenty of power to continue growing its earnings and dividend in the decades ahead.</p>\n<h2>Grow rich slowly</h2>\n<p>Compound interest can do wonders for your retirement. 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For example, investing $300 a month could grow into more than $1 million in 30 years if it...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/300-a-month-in-these-3-stocks-could-make-you-a-mil/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CCI":"冠城","NEE":"新纪元能源","BEP":"Brookfield Renewable Partners LP"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/300-a-month-in-these-3-stocks-could-make-you-a-mil/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2186432895","content_text":"Thanks to the wonders of compound interest, it doesn't take a lot of money to grow a million-dollar nest egg. For example, investing $300 a month could grow into more than $1 million in 30 years if it can generate a 12% annual return. That's slightly better than the average stock market return over the last 50 years of nearly 11%. \nMany companies have a long history of beating the market. Three companies that appear likely to continue doing so in the decades ahead are Brookfield Renewable , Crown Castle International , and NextEra Energy . Because of that, $100 invested in each one every month could grow into a $1 million nest egg by retirement.\nBenefiting from a powerful megatrend\nBrookfield Renewable has enriched its investors over the years. Since its inception, the renewable energy producer has generated an annualized total return of 19%. The company had done that by investing billions of dollars into expanding its renewable energy portfolio. That has powered more than 10% annual growth in its cash flow per share, supporting 6% annual dividend increases over the last decade. \nHowever, Brookfield's best days appear to lie ahead. The global economy needs to invest trillions of dollars to decarbonize the energy sector over the next 30 years. That should enable Brookfield to continue to invest in expanding its renewable energy portfolio.\nThe company currently has 36 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy projects in development. That's bigger than the company's current operating portfolio of about 21 GW. Combined with rising power rates, and its growing scale, these projects should support up to 11% annual cash flow per share growth through at least 2026. \nMeanwhile, Brookfield sees up to another 9% yearly boost from future acquisitions. Add that growing renewable-powered cash flow stream to the company's 3%-yielding dividend, and Brookfield appears to have the power to produce double-digit annual returns for decades to come. \nConnected to the data supercycle\nCrown Castle has been an exceptional value creator over the years. The infrastructure-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) has delivered a more than 13% annual total return over the two-plus decades since its initial public offering. \nA major driver of those returns has been the billions of dollars the company has poured into expanding its communications infrastructure portfolio. Over the last decade alone, the REIT spent $31 billion on acquisitions and capital expenditures (capex), powering 9% annual dividend growth since 2014.   \nThe company still sees significant investment opportunities ahead. Crown Castle noted that the telecom industry's rollout of 5G networks represents a decade-long investment cycle. Meanwhile, some see a 100-year data infrastructure upgrade investment opportunity to support the digital economy. Because of that, Crown Castle has a lot of growth ahead of it, which should drive continued strong returns. \nCrown Castle expects to grow its 3.2%-yielding dividend at a 7% to 8% annual rate in the near term. That suggests the company could deliver double-digit total returns in the coming years. \nPlugged into several growth catalysts\nNextEra Energy has also created an enormous amount of wealth for its investors over the years. The utility has generated a roughly 700% total return over the last decade alone, crushing the 276% total return produced by the S&P 500. Powering the company's robust results has been its ability to deliver above-average earnings and dividend growth. It has increased its earnings per share at an 8.7% compound annual rate since 2005, supporting 9.6% compound annual dividend growth. \nA major catalyst has been the company's leadership in renewable energy. It has grown into one of the world's largest wind and solar energy producers. \nThat leadership should continue since it has one of the world's biggest backlogs of wind and solar energy development projects. In addition to tried-and-true technologies like wind and solar, NextEra is a leader in emerging technologies, including battery storage and green hydrogen. Meanwhile, it's tapping into other sources of growth like water infrastructure. Because of that, NextEra should have plenty of power to continue growing its earnings and dividend in the decades ahead.\nGrow rich slowly\nCompound interest can do wonders for your retirement. Steadily investing a few hundred dollars each month into high-performing stocks can create an enormous amount of wealth. One of the keys to finding stocks that can deliver decades of strong returns is focusing on those benefiting from megatrends. Few are as big and enduring as renewable energy and data, making Brookfield Renewable, Crown Castle, and NextEra Energy stand out as stocks that could mint their share of millionaires in the decades ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600970679,"gmtCreate":1638061257691,"gmtModify":1638063465382,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600970679","repostId":"2186340224","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2186340224","pubTimestamp":1638059445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186340224?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-28 08:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Got $5,000? These 2 Stocks Could Be Bargain Buys in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186340224","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Both of these businesses could be in much better shape a year from now.","content":"<p>Investing in stocks that are falling can be tough to do; nobody wants to look at their portfolio and see red. But if you're investing for the long haul, you know that short-term trends could subside, and this year's sell-off stock could be next year's top performer.</p>\n<p>That's exactly what I think of with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\"><b>AstraZeneca&nbsp;</b></a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\"><b>Beyond Meat&nbsp;</b></a>. Both of these stocks have been falling recently, but heading into next year, things could look a lot better. If you can afford to invest $5,000 into these stocks, here's why you should consider doing so.</p>\n<h4><b>1. AstraZeneca</b></h4>\n<p>Shares of COVID-19 vaccine-maker AstraZeneca are down 5% over the past three months, while the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> has soared by more than 5%. The company released its third-quarter results on Nov. 12, which disappointed investors as it fell short of earnings expectations. The stock sank more than 6% on the day.</p>\n<p>But next year, things could look much different. Up until now, AstraZeneca hasn't been trying to make a profit from its COVID-19 vaccine. But now that the pandemic is turning into more of an endemic, the company is going to focus on turning a profit on the vaccine on any new orders.</p>\n<p>That means an increase in price. The company has been selling its vaccine for just a few dollars per dose, well below what other COVID-19 vaccine makers are charging countries.</p>\n<p>For the period ending Sept. 30, the company's COVID-19 vaccine generated over $1 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, rival vaccine-maker <b>Moderna</b> reported $4.8 billion in product sales for the same period, and <b>Pfizer</b>'s COVID-19 vaccine generated $13 billion in revenue, also during the same interval.</p>\n<p>While it's unclear just how much higher AstraZeneca's COVID-19-related revenue may climb on an increase in the vaccine's price, its top line is likely to get a boost next year nonetheless. Plus, it completed the acquisition of healthcare-company Alexion Pharmaceuticals in July, which has already started contributing to AstraZeneca's financials this past quarter to the tune of $1.3 billion in new revenue. Alexion's focus on rare diseases expands AstraZeneca's product mix and can set it up for some great gains over the long term.</p>\n<p>Although AstraZeneca incurred a net loss of $1.7 billion this past quarter, that's largely due to the acquisition of Alexion, as its operations are typically profitable. (In each of the previous four quarters, AstraZeneca has reported a profit margin of at least 6%.)</p>\n<p>As it integrates Alexion into its business and eliminates inefficiencies and redundancies, the company's financials will improve. That, combined with the additional revenue from the new business plus an increase in COVID-19 sales, could set the stock up for a terrific performance in 2022.</p>\n<h4><b>2. Beyond Meat</b></h4>\n<p>Beyond Meat's stock has been falling fast as it's down 36% in just three months. What was looking like it might be a promising year for the company amid reopenings has stalled due to the delta variant causing a spike in COVID-19 cases.</p>\n<p>The company had a bad earnings report and the stock has become a better buy in November. Although sales of $106.4 million for the period ending Oct. 2 rose 13% year over year, the company disappointed investors with a net loss of $54.8 million that was more than double the $19.3 million loss it reported in the same period in 2020. Beyond Meat doesn't project a picture of getting much better in the final quarter of the year, as it expects net revenue to fall within a range of just $85 million to $110 million.</p>\n<p>There's no shortage of bearishness surrounding Beyond Meat right now. But heading into next year, a lot can change. What's important is that the company has some great growth opportunities in place.</p>\n<p>Beyond's sales were up 13% this past quarter, but that was driven primarily by growth in the international markets, where revenue more than doubled to $38.9 million. In the U.S. market, sales of $67.5 million declined by 14%.</p>\n<p>However, if supply-chain issues resolve next year and COVID-19 case numbers come down as people receive booster shots, there's reason to believe that the U.S. numbers could strengthen with a return to normalcy in the economy. And fast-food restaurant <b>McDonald's</b> recently launched its McPlant burger (which features a Beyond Meat patty) in multiple U.S. cities. If successful, that could also lead to some improved financials for Beyond in 2022.</p>\n<p>Although the growth stock is beaten up today, a year from now, today's price could look like a bargain.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Got $5,000? These 2 Stocks Could Be Bargain Buys in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGot $5,000? These 2 Stocks Could Be Bargain Buys in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-28 08:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/these-2-stocks-could-be-bargain-buys-in-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing in stocks that are falling can be tough to do; nobody wants to look at their portfolio and see red. But if you're investing for the long haul, you know that short-term trends could subside, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/these-2-stocks-could-be-bargain-buys-in-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AZN":"阿斯利康","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/these-2-stocks-could-be-bargain-buys-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2186340224","content_text":"Investing in stocks that are falling can be tough to do; nobody wants to look at their portfolio and see red. But if you're investing for the long haul, you know that short-term trends could subside, and this year's sell-off stock could be next year's top performer.\nThat's exactly what I think of with AstraZeneca  and Beyond Meat . Both of these stocks have been falling recently, but heading into next year, things could look a lot better. If you can afford to invest $5,000 into these stocks, here's why you should consider doing so.\n1. AstraZeneca\nShares of COVID-19 vaccine-maker AstraZeneca are down 5% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has soared by more than 5%. The company released its third-quarter results on Nov. 12, which disappointed investors as it fell short of earnings expectations. The stock sank more than 6% on the day.\nBut next year, things could look much different. Up until now, AstraZeneca hasn't been trying to make a profit from its COVID-19 vaccine. But now that the pandemic is turning into more of an endemic, the company is going to focus on turning a profit on the vaccine on any new orders.\nThat means an increase in price. The company has been selling its vaccine for just a few dollars per dose, well below what other COVID-19 vaccine makers are charging countries.\nFor the period ending Sept. 30, the company's COVID-19 vaccine generated over $1 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, rival vaccine-maker Moderna reported $4.8 billion in product sales for the same period, and Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine generated $13 billion in revenue, also during the same interval.\nWhile it's unclear just how much higher AstraZeneca's COVID-19-related revenue may climb on an increase in the vaccine's price, its top line is likely to get a boost next year nonetheless. Plus, it completed the acquisition of healthcare-company Alexion Pharmaceuticals in July, which has already started contributing to AstraZeneca's financials this past quarter to the tune of $1.3 billion in new revenue. Alexion's focus on rare diseases expands AstraZeneca's product mix and can set it up for some great gains over the long term.\nAlthough AstraZeneca incurred a net loss of $1.7 billion this past quarter, that's largely due to the acquisition of Alexion, as its operations are typically profitable. (In each of the previous four quarters, AstraZeneca has reported a profit margin of at least 6%.)\nAs it integrates Alexion into its business and eliminates inefficiencies and redundancies, the company's financials will improve. That, combined with the additional revenue from the new business plus an increase in COVID-19 sales, could set the stock up for a terrific performance in 2022.\n2. Beyond Meat\nBeyond Meat's stock has been falling fast as it's down 36% in just three months. What was looking like it might be a promising year for the company amid reopenings has stalled due to the delta variant causing a spike in COVID-19 cases.\nThe company had a bad earnings report and the stock has become a better buy in November. Although sales of $106.4 million for the period ending Oct. 2 rose 13% year over year, the company disappointed investors with a net loss of $54.8 million that was more than double the $19.3 million loss it reported in the same period in 2020. Beyond Meat doesn't project a picture of getting much better in the final quarter of the year, as it expects net revenue to fall within a range of just $85 million to $110 million.\nThere's no shortage of bearishness surrounding Beyond Meat right now. But heading into next year, a lot can change. What's important is that the company has some great growth opportunities in place.\nBeyond's sales were up 13% this past quarter, but that was driven primarily by growth in the international markets, where revenue more than doubled to $38.9 million. In the U.S. market, sales of $67.5 million declined by 14%.\nHowever, if supply-chain issues resolve next year and COVID-19 case numbers come down as people receive booster shots, there's reason to believe that the U.S. numbers could strengthen with a return to normalcy in the economy. And fast-food restaurant McDonald's recently launched its McPlant burger (which features a Beyond Meat patty) in multiple U.S. cities. If successful, that could also lead to some improved financials for Beyond in 2022.\nAlthough the growth stock is beaten up today, a year from now, today's price could look like a bargain.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877481225,"gmtCreate":1637972375763,"gmtModify":1637979351941,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877481225","repostId":"877914322","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":877914322,"gmtCreate":1637866278968,"gmtModify":1637894036760,"author":{"id":"4095384287469350","authorId":"4095384287469350","name":"马斯克的小碎催","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8ad896818368ea66f181053a54cd30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095384287469350","idStr":"4095384287469350"},"themes":[],"title":"蔚来也有未来自己的优势","htmlText":"蔚来的主营是均价43万高端智能电动汽车。但是蔚来还具备两个BYD、小鹏、特斯拉、长城等一众其他新能源车企绝无仅有的优势：&nbsp; &nbsp;第一，蔚来的APP社区粉丝具有很强的粘性。&nbsp; &nbsp;蔚来的粉丝是NIO自己独有的“萝莉养成”计划，而不是一个“蔚来粉儿”心里既爱着“特斯拉”又想着“蔚来”，这山望着那山高。蔚来的用户可以说我爱NIO到永远，但不会有的特斯拉、小鹏的用户说我爱特斯拉，我爱何小鹏，因为他们知道他们爱的特斯拉可能因为产能不足，导致车坏了，零配件买不到，他们爱的何小鹏也仅仅是因为一辆代步工具仅此而已。可以说，国内唯一接近蔚来粉丝粘性的只有跨界友商雷军的小米，但距第一辆车交付，至少还要等上三年起。&nbsp; 但要强调的是，雷军的死忠是手机的“米粉儿”并非“汽车粉”，米粉儿的粘性来自于粉丝对于小米手机的性能工艺和价格正反比的一种爱，同样也而不是“米粉”对于雷军的爱。&nbsp;&nbsp; 第二，蔚来具备完备且成熟的充换电网络。&nbsp; &nbsp;以刻骨铭心的十一“排队4小时、充电1小时”怪现状为例，新能源车要想立足，唯一的出路就是打消车主用户“远程焦虑症”，让充换电跟加油一样方便，通过联手中石油、中石化、壳牌在全国乃至全球，不断铺设充换电基础设施网络，才有可能不断地吸引更多的用户变现。然而超级充电桩等“充电5分钟，续航百公里”通过造噱头，自建充电站小马甲等都不如“充电+换电”相辅相成“双管齐下”带来的便捷更直接有效。&nbsp; &nbsp;所以，放眼未来，时间越拉越长，蔚来的优势就会越来越明显。不信大家走着瞧，时间可以说明一切<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","listText":"蔚来的主营是均价43万高端智能电动汽车。但是蔚来还具备两个BYD、小鹏、特斯拉、长城等一众其他新能源车企绝无仅有的优势：&nbsp; &nbsp;第一，蔚来的APP社区粉丝具有很强的粘性。&nbsp; &nbsp;蔚来的粉丝是NIO自己独有的“萝莉养成”计划，而不是一个“蔚来粉儿”心里既爱着“特斯拉”又想着“蔚来”，这山望着那山高。蔚来的用户可以说我爱NIO到永远，但不会有的特斯拉、小鹏的用户说我爱特斯拉，我爱何小鹏，因为他们知道他们爱的特斯拉可能因为产能不足，导致车坏了，零配件买不到，他们爱的何小鹏也仅仅是因为一辆代步工具仅此而已。可以说，国内唯一接近蔚来粉丝粘性的只有跨界友商雷军的小米，但距第一辆车交付，至少还要等上三年起。&nbsp; 但要强调的是，雷军的死忠是手机的“米粉儿”并非“汽车粉”，米粉儿的粘性来自于粉丝对于小米手机的性能工艺和价格正反比的一种爱，同样也而不是“米粉”对于雷军的爱。&nbsp;&nbsp; 第二，蔚来具备完备且成熟的充换电网络。&nbsp; &nbsp;以刻骨铭心的十一“排队4小时、充电1小时”怪现状为例，新能源车要想立足，唯一的出路就是打消车主用户“远程焦虑症”，让充换电跟加油一样方便，通过联手中石油、中石化、壳牌在全国乃至全球，不断铺设充换电基础设施网络，才有可能不断地吸引更多的用户变现。然而超级充电桩等“充电5分钟，续航百公里”通过造噱头，自建充电站小马甲等都不如“充电+换电”相辅相成“双管齐下”带来的便捷更直接有效。&nbsp; &nbsp;所以，放眼未来，时间越拉越长，蔚来的优势就会越来越明显。不信大家走着瞧，时间可以说明一切<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","text":"蔚来的主营是均价43万高端智能电动汽车。但是蔚来还具备两个BYD、小鹏、特斯拉、长城等一众其他新能源车企绝无仅有的优势： 第一，蔚来的APP社区粉丝具有很强的粘性。 蔚来的粉丝是NIO自己独有的“萝莉养成”计划，而不是一个“蔚来粉儿”心里既爱着“特斯拉”又想着“蔚来”，这山望着那山高。蔚来的用户可以说我爱NIO到永远，但不会有的特斯拉、小鹏的用户说我爱特斯拉，我爱何小鹏，因为他们知道他们爱的特斯拉可能因为产能不足，导致车坏了，零配件买不到，他们爱的何小鹏也仅仅是因为一辆代步工具仅此而已。可以说，国内唯一接近蔚来粉丝粘性的只有跨界友商雷军的小米，但距第一辆车交付，至少还要等上三年起。 但要强调的是，雷军的死忠是手机的“米粉儿”并非“汽车粉”，米粉儿的粘性来自于粉丝对于小米手机的性能工艺和价格正反比的一种爱，同样也而不是“米粉”对于雷军的爱。 第二，蔚来具备完备且成熟的充换电网络。 以刻骨铭心的十一“排队4小时、充电1小时”怪现状为例，新能源车要想立足，唯一的出路就是打消车主用户“远程焦虑症”，让充换电跟加油一样方便，通过联手中石油、中石化、壳牌在全国乃至全球，不断铺设充换电基础设施网络，才有可能不断地吸引更多的用户变现。然而超级充电桩等“充电5分钟，续航百公里”通过造噱头，自建充电站小马甲等都不如“充电+换电”相辅相成“双管齐下”带来的便捷更直接有效。 所以，放眼未来，时间越拉越长，蔚来的优势就会越来越明显。不信大家走着瞧，时间可以说明一切$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640475664598caccc18a8ce11387d236","width":"4608","height":"3456"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877914322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877651792,"gmtCreate":1637928656076,"gmtModify":1637928924215,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877651792","repostId":"875913334","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":875913334,"gmtCreate":1637594030277,"gmtModify":1644926912713,"author":{"id":"3574671931921507","authorId":"3574671931921507","name":"Wayneqq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d24be2c05653913e90f51e69cfe2a8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574671931921507","idStr":"3574671931921507"},"themes":[],"title":"Demystifying Options Part 5","htmlText":"This is part 5 of Demystifying Options... If you are not familiar with options, I would suggest reading my first 4 posts: Demystifying Options Part 1 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/857850006\" target=\"_blank\">Introduction to options</a> Demystifying Options Part 2 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/848960842\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 3 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/844959924\" target=\"_blank\">Buying Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 4 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/871625031\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Call options</a> A short recap on the types of options available... There are 2 types of options - Put option and Call option. You can buy and sell both of them. This post will be discussing about&nbsp;BUYING call options. When you BUY an opti","listText":"This is part 5 of Demystifying Options... If you are not familiar with options, I would suggest reading my first 4 posts: Demystifying Options Part 1 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/857850006\" target=\"_blank\">Introduction to options</a> Demystifying Options Part 2 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/848960842\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 3 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/844959924\" target=\"_blank\">Buying Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 4 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/871625031\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Call options</a> A short recap on the types of options available... There are 2 types of options - Put option and Call option. You can buy and sell both of them. This post will be discussing about&nbsp;BUYING call options. When you BUY an opti","text":"This is part 5 of Demystifying Options... If you are not familiar with options, I would suggest reading my first 4 posts: Demystifying Options Part 1 - Introduction to options Demystifying Options Part 2 - Selling Put options Demystifying Options Part 3 - Buying Put options Demystifying Options Part 4 - Selling Call options A short recap on the types of options available... There are 2 types of options - Put option and Call option. You can buy and sell both of them. This post will be discussing about BUYING call options. When you BUY an opti","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4ddac42c5d5b06a9d7e27c56ce2f5","width":"358","height":"382"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875913334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874637290,"gmtCreate":1637765553165,"gmtModify":1637766175648,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874637290","repostId":"872562444","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":872562444,"gmtCreate":1637548934796,"gmtModify":1637575591905,"author":{"id":"3548388348794551","authorId":"3548388348794551","name":"问就是加仓up","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e98ddf789d46c5627f944fc581c0fe9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548388348794551","idStr":"3548388348794551"},"themes":[],"title":"画个蔚来的未来","htmlText":"相信关注蔚来的人都注意到周五盘后的消息，蔚来最近完成了20亿美元的融资，发售了5329wADS，平均价格为37.5美元左右。接近三个多月的增发终于结束了，这次增发和之前的发行有一个比较大的区别，这次是通过直接在市场出售股票进行融资的，所以影响时间相对来说更长，但是好处就是发行价格会更接近市场价，因为通常发行都会有一个价格折让，很多都是折让10个点起步。像蔚来这种短期并不是特别缺钱，通过一定的时间进行融资，总体还是值得点赞的。只是对于持股的人来说，这种操作太过摧残。我对蔚来的观点其实比较简单，中概股比较有希望的一个标的，目前是国产新能源在高端车领域比较成功的突破，基本面稳中向好，长期看是少有的可以对标特斯拉的标的之一。等趋势走起来，会考虑进场。 本文仅个人看法，目前没有持仓。买股票，我喜欢追趋势突破的，最起码日线级别的突破。因此前几天进场过，目前没有持仓。最近三个月买了不止两三次蔚来，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，资金硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，再展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱左右，最高到了67元，半年多涨了将近30倍，这一路无数人赚了大钱，我也算是一个（对我来说是比较多的钱）。然后再从最高的67，一路回落到最低30.7附近，在30这个位置获得了一个支撑，之后半年多股价基本上保持区间震荡，这次的增发也算一个比较大的因素。其实最近三个月，买了两三次蔚来不止，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，就是那种硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，然后展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱，最高到了67元，半","listText":"相信关注蔚来的人都注意到周五盘后的消息，蔚来最近完成了20亿美元的融资，发售了5329wADS，平均价格为37.5美元左右。接近三个多月的增发终于结束了，这次增发和之前的发行有一个比较大的区别，这次是通过直接在市场出售股票进行融资的，所以影响时间相对来说更长，但是好处就是发行价格会更接近市场价，因为通常发行都会有一个价格折让，很多都是折让10个点起步。像蔚来这种短期并不是特别缺钱，通过一定的时间进行融资，总体还是值得点赞的。只是对于持股的人来说，这种操作太过摧残。我对蔚来的观点其实比较简单，中概股比较有希望的一个标的，目前是国产新能源在高端车领域比较成功的突破，基本面稳中向好，长期看是少有的可以对标特斯拉的标的之一。等趋势走起来，会考虑进场。 本文仅个人看法，目前没有持仓。买股票，我喜欢追趋势突破的，最起码日线级别的突破。因此前几天进场过，目前没有持仓。最近三个月买了不止两三次蔚来，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，资金硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，再展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱左右，最高到了67元，半年多涨了将近30倍，这一路无数人赚了大钱，我也算是一个（对我来说是比较多的钱）。然后再从最高的67，一路回落到最低30.7附近，在30这个位置获得了一个支撑，之后半年多股价基本上保持区间震荡，这次的增发也算一个比较大的因素。其实最近三个月，买了两三次蔚来不止，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，就是那种硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，然后展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱，最高到了67元，半","text":"相信关注蔚来的人都注意到周五盘后的消息，蔚来最近完成了20亿美元的融资，发售了5329wADS，平均价格为37.5美元左右。接近三个多月的增发终于结束了，这次增发和之前的发行有一个比较大的区别，这次是通过直接在市场出售股票进行融资的，所以影响时间相对来说更长，但是好处就是发行价格会更接近市场价，因为通常发行都会有一个价格折让，很多都是折让10个点起步。像蔚来这种短期并不是特别缺钱，通过一定的时间进行融资，总体还是值得点赞的。只是对于持股的人来说，这种操作太过摧残。我对蔚来的观点其实比较简单，中概股比较有希望的一个标的，目前是国产新能源在高端车领域比较成功的突破，基本面稳中向好，长期看是少有的可以对标特斯拉的标的之一。等趋势走起来，会考虑进场。 本文仅个人看法，目前没有持仓。买股票，我喜欢追趋势突破的，最起码日线级别的突破。因此前几天进场过，目前没有持仓。最近三个月买了不止两三次蔚来，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，资金硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，再展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱左右，最高到了67元，半年多涨了将近30倍，这一路无数人赚了大钱，我也算是一个（对我来说是比较多的钱）。然后再从最高的67，一路回落到最低30.7附近，在30这个位置获得了一个支撑，之后半年多股价基本上保持区间震荡，这次的增发也算一个比较大的因素。其实最近三个月，买了两三次蔚来不止，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，就是那种硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，然后展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱，最高到了67元，半","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5173b6e1619b56547c33551610ca5da2","width":"688","height":"617"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872562444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874630317,"gmtCreate":1637765069872,"gmtModify":1637765448255,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874630317","repostId":"876821939","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":876821939,"gmtCreate":1637293434176,"gmtModify":1637321172562,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556134694513016","idStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"What is Baba's Intrinsic Value - With Valuation Model","htmlText":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","listText":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","text":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on $Alibaba(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e32123f3fe711a94c20cea76325e7f4"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97bee6f41d4ceef1da78691a616a3869"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8b631d49bab6ba69b3aedbd5545335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876821939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872231781,"gmtCreate":1637536834867,"gmtModify":1637546525229,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872231781","repostId":"1153786917","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153786917","pubTimestamp":1637534687,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153786917?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 06:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153786917","media":"Barrons","summary":"The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week","content":"<p>The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from some of retail’s biggest names, including&nbsp;Best Buy,Burlington Stores,Dick’s Sporting Goods,Dollar Tree,and&nbsp;Gap.</p>\n<p>Friday will bring one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kick off for holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year.</p>\n<p>Non-retail highlights on the earnings calendar next week include&nbsp;Zoom Video Communications on Monday,Xpeng,Xiaomi Corporation,Autodesk,Dell Technologies,and&nbsp;VMware&nbsp;on Tuesday, Deere&nbsp;on Wednesday&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Meituan and RLX Technology&nbsp;on Friday.</p>\n<p>The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October on Monday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September.</p>\n<p>On Tuesday,IHS Markit&nbsp;releases both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the manufacturing PMI and 59 for the services PMI.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting. The U.S. Census Bureau also releases the durable-goods report for October, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending for October.</p>\n<p>U.S. bourses and fixed-income markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., while the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p>\n<p>Agilent Technologies,Keysight Technologies,and Zoom Video Communications release quarterly results.</p>\n<p><b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September. Existing-home sales hit their post-financial-crisis peak at 6.73 million last October and have fallen for much of this year, partly due to supply constraints, especially at the lower-price end of the housing market.</p>\n<p>Analog Devices,Autodesk, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap,HPInc.,J.M. Smucker, Jacobs Engineering Group,Medtronic,and VMware report earnings.</p>\n<p><b>IHS Markit releases</b> both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 59 for the Services PMI. Both figures are slightly more than the October data. Both indexes are off their peaks from earlier this year, but higher than their levels from a year ago.</p>\n<p><b>The BEA reports</b> its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Economists forecast a 2.2% annualized rate of growth, higher than the BEA’s preliminary estimate of 2% from late October.</p>\n<p>Deere reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results.</p>\n<p><b>The Federal Open Market</b> Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable-goods report for October. Economists forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, to $262 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.5%, matching the September gain.</p>\n<p><b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and spending for October. The consensus call is for a 0.4% monthly increase in income after a 1% decline in September. Personal spending is expected to rise 1%, month over month, a faster clip than September’s 0.6% gain.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. bourses</b> and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.</p>\n<p><b>It’s Black Friday</b>, one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year. U.S. exchanges have a shortened trading session on the day after Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-22 06:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DELL":"戴尔",".DJI":"道琼斯","ZM":"Zoom","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BBY":"百思买"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153786917","content_text":"The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from some of retail’s biggest names, including Best Buy,Burlington Stores,Dick’s Sporting Goods,Dollar Tree,and Gap.\nFriday will bring one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kick off for holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year.\nNon-retail highlights on the earnings calendar next week include Zoom Video Communications on Monday,Xpeng,Xiaomi Corporation,Autodesk,Dell Technologies,and VMware on Tuesday, Deere on Wednesday and Pinduoduo,Meituan and RLX Technology on Friday.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October on Monday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September.\nOn Tuesday,IHS Markit releases both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the manufacturing PMI and 59 for the services PMI.\nOn Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting. The U.S. Census Bureau also releases the durable-goods report for October, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending for October.\nU.S. bourses and fixed-income markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., while the bond market closes at 2 p.m.\nAgilent Technologies,Keysight Technologies,and Zoom Video Communications release quarterly results.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September. Existing-home sales hit their post-financial-crisis peak at 6.73 million last October and have fallen for much of this year, partly due to supply constraints, especially at the lower-price end of the housing market.\nAnalog Devices,Autodesk, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap,HPInc.,J.M. Smucker, Jacobs Engineering Group,Medtronic,and VMware report earnings.\nIHS Markit releases both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 59 for the Services PMI. Both figures are slightly more than the October data. Both indexes are off their peaks from earlier this year, but higher than their levels from a year ago.\nThe BEA reports its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Economists forecast a 2.2% annualized rate of growth, higher than the BEA’s preliminary estimate of 2% from late October.\nDeere reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for October. Economists forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, to $262 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.5%, matching the September gain.\nThe BEA reports personal income and spending for October. The consensus call is for a 0.4% monthly increase in income after a 1% decline in September. Personal spending is expected to rise 1%, month over month, a faster clip than September’s 0.6% gain.\nU.S. bourses and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.\nIt’s Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year. U.S. exchanges have a shortened trading session on the day after Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872168475,"gmtCreate":1637459790682,"gmtModify":1637460516593,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872168475","repostId":"2184828468","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2184828468","pubTimestamp":1637456376,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2184828468?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-21 08:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Missed Out on Lucid and Rivian? 2 EV Stocks To Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2184828468","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Electric vehicle growth stocks have flare, but there are value names out there too.","content":"<p>Even after slipping on Wednesday and Thursday, share prices of <b>Rivian Automotive</b> (NASDAQ:RIVN) and <b>Lucid Group</b> (NASDAQ:LCID) are up big over the last week as investors cheer newcomers to the electric vehicle (EV) scene.Both companies are bursting with potential but are a long way from profitability.</p>\n<p>If you feel like you missed out on Lucid and Rivian, or are simply looking for a better value in the EV sector, then<b> Ford</b> (NYSE:F)and <b>Nio</b> (NYSE:NIO) could be better options right now.</p>\n<h2>Sink or swim</h2>\n<p><b>Daniel Foelber (Ford): </b>10 years ago, <b>Tesla </b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) was a new, unproven, and heavily criticized EV company. Legacy automakers doubted the feasibility of EVs and continued with their established businesses. Today, the script has flipped as new and existing automakers clamor for a slice of the ever-growing EV pie.</p>\n<p>It takes humility to admit that you were wrong. And no legacy automaker is doing it better than Ford. Although Ford is a well-known brand, many folks aren't aware of the extent of its EV investments. Investors can use this misconception to their advantage as Ford is valued like a low growth legacy automaker when in reality its growth is set to accelerate thanks to EVs. Ford plans on spending $40 billion to $45 billion on strategic capital expenditures between 2020 and 2025 -- $30 billion of which is earmarked for battery EVs. However, it's worth mentioning that as EVs grow to comprise a larger share of Ford's sales mix, there should be a decline in sales from its legacy models over time. The challenge for Ford will be growing profits off of a larger EV mix, whether that's from higher margins from the vehicles themselves or software and other streams.</p>\n<p>Investors may be wondering why Ford is diving headfirst into EVs after years of resistance. The simplest answer is motive, as well as CEO Jim Farley who took over in October 2020.</p>\n<p>Business decisions are based on incentives. While companies like Tesla have spent the last decade growing, Ford has languished due to fierce competition and unsuccessful expansions into the sedan market. Without its core F-Series pickup line, it would likely have been toast. However, Ford is quickly becoming <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the biggest supporters of EVs. Similar to oil and gas, where the struggling companies like <b>BP</b> and <b>Royal Dutch Shell </b>are quick to embrace renewables while the more successful ones like <b>ExxonMobil </b>and <b>Chevron </b>are slow to change, Ford is the ideal car company to embrace EVs. It's investing in EVs at a faster rate than <b>Toyota</b>, <b>Honda</b>, <b>Mercedes-Benz, </b>and other internal combustion engine (ICE) automakers because, quite frankly, Ford is arguably not as good as those companies in the ICE field.</p>\n<p>Incentivized to avoid sinking, Ford is swimming toward EVs on the back of its F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E. With the electric truck and SUV market still relatively young, Ford is poised to become a contender and maybe even a leader in both classes.</p>\n<h2>Next leg of growth</h2>\n<p><b>Howard Smith&nbsp;(Nio):</b> Many investors thought they missed out on Chinese EV maker Nio in the early months of 2021 after the stock shot up to more than $60 per share, giving the company a market cap close to $100 billion. The frenzy came as people thought they needed to get into the next big EV stock. That scenario is starting to look familiar again as Rivian and Lucid garner much investor adoration and shares have soared.</p>\n<p>But Nio shares were subsequently cut in half, even though its business continued to drive ahead. The stock has recovered some, but it still has a lower valuation than both Rivian and Lucid currently. And with it already moving its business into Europe and working on doubling its production capacity, Nio could be the EV stock to buy for those that feel they've missed out on the recent run from those two U.S. start-ups.</p>\n<p>By the time Nio reports its next vehicle delivery data, it will likely have sold more than 150,000 of its electric SUVs. And while investor excitement around Rivian and Lucid is understandable, it shouldn't be lost that neither has produced any meaningful volume as of yet.</p>\n<p>While Nio has hit some recent bumps from supply chain disruptions, it continues to push forward on its next leg of growth. It sent its first export shipment to Norway this summer and is working to grow its community there. That consists of Nio House studios used by its customer communities, and its network of charging solutions which includes its unique battery swap stations that also help bring the company a stream of subscription revenue. Nio expects to sell its newest offering, the luxury ET7 sedan, into both Norway and Germany in 2022 as it expands to its next European market. This expansion comes as the company and its manufacturing partner are constructing new lines to more than double capacity as demand continues to grow. For those that missed out on the recent run in shares of Rivian or Lucid, Nio makes a good alternative EV investment right now.</p>\n<h2>Companies that are built to last</h2>\n<p>If you're tired of hearing about growth stocks like Rivian and Lucid, Ford and Nio could be good electric car options now. Both companies are established businesses generating real sales and ramping production. Ford's established and profitable business gives it the stability and extra cash needed to fund its EV exploits. Nio is a market leader in China and is growing at a breakneck pace. When valuations stray from fundamentals, sometimes it's best to ignore the limelight in search of hidden gems like Ford and Nio.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Missed Out on Lucid and Rivian? 2 EV Stocks To Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMissed Out on Lucid and Rivian? 2 EV Stocks To Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-21 08:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/20/missed-out-on-lucid-and-rivian-try-these-2-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even after slipping on Wednesday and Thursday, share prices of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) are up big over the last week as investors cheer newcomers to the electric ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/20/missed-out-on-lucid-and-rivian-try-these-2-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","F":"福特汽车","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO":"蔚来","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4509":"腾讯概念","EV":"MAST GLOBAL BATTERY RECYCLING & PRODUCTION ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/20/missed-out-on-lucid-and-rivian-try-these-2-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2184828468","content_text":"Even after slipping on Wednesday and Thursday, share prices of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) are up big over the last week as investors cheer newcomers to the electric vehicle (EV) scene.Both companies are bursting with potential but are a long way from profitability.\nIf you feel like you missed out on Lucid and Rivian, or are simply looking for a better value in the EV sector, then Ford (NYSE:F)and Nio (NYSE:NIO) could be better options right now.\nSink or swim\nDaniel Foelber (Ford): 10 years ago, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) was a new, unproven, and heavily criticized EV company. Legacy automakers doubted the feasibility of EVs and continued with their established businesses. Today, the script has flipped as new and existing automakers clamor for a slice of the ever-growing EV pie.\nIt takes humility to admit that you were wrong. And no legacy automaker is doing it better than Ford. Although Ford is a well-known brand, many folks aren't aware of the extent of its EV investments. Investors can use this misconception to their advantage as Ford is valued like a low growth legacy automaker when in reality its growth is set to accelerate thanks to EVs. Ford plans on spending $40 billion to $45 billion on strategic capital expenditures between 2020 and 2025 -- $30 billion of which is earmarked for battery EVs. However, it's worth mentioning that as EVs grow to comprise a larger share of Ford's sales mix, there should be a decline in sales from its legacy models over time. The challenge for Ford will be growing profits off of a larger EV mix, whether that's from higher margins from the vehicles themselves or software and other streams.\nInvestors may be wondering why Ford is diving headfirst into EVs after years of resistance. The simplest answer is motive, as well as CEO Jim Farley who took over in October 2020.\nBusiness decisions are based on incentives. While companies like Tesla have spent the last decade growing, Ford has languished due to fierce competition and unsuccessful expansions into the sedan market. Without its core F-Series pickup line, it would likely have been toast. However, Ford is quickly becoming one of the biggest supporters of EVs. Similar to oil and gas, where the struggling companies like BP and Royal Dutch Shell are quick to embrace renewables while the more successful ones like ExxonMobil and Chevron are slow to change, Ford is the ideal car company to embrace EVs. It's investing in EVs at a faster rate than Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, and other internal combustion engine (ICE) automakers because, quite frankly, Ford is arguably not as good as those companies in the ICE field.\nIncentivized to avoid sinking, Ford is swimming toward EVs on the back of its F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E. With the electric truck and SUV market still relatively young, Ford is poised to become a contender and maybe even a leader in both classes.\nNext leg of growth\nHoward Smith (Nio): Many investors thought they missed out on Chinese EV maker Nio in the early months of 2021 after the stock shot up to more than $60 per share, giving the company a market cap close to $100 billion. The frenzy came as people thought they needed to get into the next big EV stock. That scenario is starting to look familiar again as Rivian and Lucid garner much investor adoration and shares have soared.\nBut Nio shares were subsequently cut in half, even though its business continued to drive ahead. The stock has recovered some, but it still has a lower valuation than both Rivian and Lucid currently. And with it already moving its business into Europe and working on doubling its production capacity, Nio could be the EV stock to buy for those that feel they've missed out on the recent run from those two U.S. start-ups.\nBy the time Nio reports its next vehicle delivery data, it will likely have sold more than 150,000 of its electric SUVs. And while investor excitement around Rivian and Lucid is understandable, it shouldn't be lost that neither has produced any meaningful volume as of yet.\nWhile Nio has hit some recent bumps from supply chain disruptions, it continues to push forward on its next leg of growth. It sent its first export shipment to Norway this summer and is working to grow its community there. That consists of Nio House studios used by its customer communities, and its network of charging solutions which includes its unique battery swap stations that also help bring the company a stream of subscription revenue. Nio expects to sell its newest offering, the luxury ET7 sedan, into both Norway and Germany in 2022 as it expands to its next European market. This expansion comes as the company and its manufacturing partner are constructing new lines to more than double capacity as demand continues to grow. For those that missed out on the recent run in shares of Rivian or Lucid, Nio makes a good alternative EV investment right now.\nCompanies that are built to last\nIf you're tired of hearing about growth stocks like Rivian and Lucid, Ford and Nio could be good electric car options now. Both companies are established businesses generating real sales and ramping production. Ford's established and profitable business gives it the stability and extra cash needed to fund its EV exploits. Nio is a market leader in China and is growing at a breakneck pace. When valuations stray from fundamentals, sometimes it's best to ignore the limelight in search of hidden gems like Ford and Nio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879748395,"gmtCreate":1636779704160,"gmtModify":1636786233744,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879748395","repostId":"870099984","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":870099984,"gmtCreate":1636556889065,"gmtModify":1636620225040,"author":{"id":"3577922109777992","authorId":"3577922109777992","name":"Eldenminaj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b70c888201698b49ffaacadca9b58be","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577922109777992","idStr":"3577922109777992"},"themes":[],"title":"Amazon VS Alibaba: Which is the better buy?","htmlText":"In the E-commerce industry, both this 2 companies, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a> &amp; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> are the strongest among all. With that being said, which company would be the best investment of the next decade?Lets look at the key takeaways: Both this company operate internationally. However, 92% of Alibaba's revenue comes from China. While for Amazon, only 64% comes from United States, while the rest comes from other countries. This shows that Amazon's revenue is more diversified and not just contributed from one country. Amazon's revenue is extremely high compared to Alibaba. For 12 months ended Q1 FY2020, Amaz","listText":"In the E-commerce industry, both this 2 companies, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a> &amp; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> are the strongest among all. With that being said, which company would be the best investment of the next decade?Lets look at the key takeaways: Both this company operate internationally. However, 92% of Alibaba's revenue comes from China. While for Amazon, only 64% comes from United States, while the rest comes from other countries. This shows that Amazon's revenue is more diversified and not just contributed from one country. Amazon's revenue is extremely high compared to Alibaba. For 12 months ended Q1 FY2020, Amaz","text":"In the E-commerce industry, both this 2 companies, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ & $Alibaba(BABA)$$Alibaba(09988)$ are the strongest among all. With that being said, which company would be the best investment of the next decade?Lets look at the key takeaways: Both this company operate internationally. However, 92% of Alibaba's revenue comes from China. While for Amazon, only 64% comes from United States, while the rest comes from other countries. This shows that Amazon's revenue is more diversified and not just contributed from one country. Amazon's revenue is extremely high compared to Alibaba. For 12 months ended Q1 FY2020, Amaz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870099984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879484898,"gmtCreate":1636764028462,"gmtModify":1636769305340,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879484898","repostId":"1163118124","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163118124","pubTimestamp":1636726239,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163118124?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163118124","media":"Forbes","summary":"Tesla’s  market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz , which might not even happen.Even if it does come to pass, the Hertz order is a drop in the bucket of growth expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation. Tesla needs 155 Hertz-sized orders to justify the revenue expectations in its stock price. Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 60%+ of the entire global p","content":"<p>Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz (HTZ), which might&nbsp;not even happen.</p>\n<p>Even if it does come to pass, the Hertz order is a drop in the bucket of growth expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation. Tesla needs 155 Hertz-sized orders to justify the revenue expectations in its stock price. Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 60%+ of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple (AAPL) by 2030.</p>\n<p>This report provides objective perspective on how outrageously high the valuation of Tesla stock is and the clear impracticality of the company meeting the expectations baked into its valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla’s Valuation vs. Competitors Makes No Sense</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s market cap is now greater than the next 10 largest (ranked by market cap) auto manufacturers combined.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 1:&nbsp;Tesla’s Market Cap Vs. Competitors</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb58977e39c2d0ce868e80de26d098d9\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This valuation comes despite Tesla selling less than 1/50th&nbsp;of the vehicles than the combined total sold by the next 10 largest automakers over the trailing twelve months ended the first half of 2021. See Figure 2.</p>\n<p>I cannot conceive of a straight-faced argument for the disconnect between Tesla’s valuation and its vehicle sales compared to its competitors.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 2:&nbsp;Tesla’s Car Sales Vs. Competitors</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe8de12677dc13fe01f38fbafdcab27\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">* Stellantis sales estimated as Fiat Chrysler and PSA Group’s 2H20 sales and Stellantis’ 1H21 sales. Stellantis was formed as a merger between the two in January 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Is the Hertz Deal Really Worth $100 Billion+ in Market Cap?</b></p>\n<p>Even if Hertz eventually agrees to buy 100,000 Tesla Model 3s, I do not think it is worth the $100 billion in market cap, or $1 million per vehicle, that we saw investors give Tesla’s market cap after the Hertz deal made headlines. Even Elon Musk questioned the surge in share price, noting that the price movement was “strange” given that Tesla is “very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem.”</p>\n<p>This $100 billion market cap jump makes even less sense in the context of Tesla’s&nbsp;sky-high valuation&nbsp;before the announcement. Clearly, the feasibility of Tesla meeting the sales expectations embedded in its market cap plays no role in its valuation. For those that do care about&nbsp;expectations investing, I did the math and Tesla needs to successfully deliver on 155 Hertz-sized deals to meet the sales implied by a $1.2 trillion market cap.</p>\n<p><b>Will the Hertz Deal Result in Any Profits – If It Goes Through?</b></p>\n<p>After Elon Musk&nbsp;tweeted&nbsp;on November 1, 2021 that “no contract has been signed yet”, the Hertz deal reminds me of another&nbsp;famous tweet: \"am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”</p>\n<p>Even if the deal does go through, the pricing terms are very unclear. Elon insists that no cars will be sold at a discount. Meanwhile, Hertz CEO Mark Fields has made it clear that he is playing the field and working on getting cars from all EV manufacturers on his lot.</p>\n<p>Either Tesla is selling cars at a (large or small) discount, the deal terms are wrong, or the deal does not get done. If the deal gets done, I do not expect it to be profitable. Rental car companies are accustomed to getting discounts for bulk orders, and I see no reason for Hertz to expect to pay list prices on a deal for so many cars.</p>\n<p>At the end of the day, I’m not sure pricing matters because I don't think the Hertz deal gets done. This affair is more about headlines and fueling speculation than doing any real business.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla’s Global Market Share Getting Smaller</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s first-mover is already eroding, and its market share continues to decline. In the first half of 2021, Tesla sold 14.6% of the EVs&nbsp;sold worldwide&nbsp;compared to 18.8% over the same period in 2020.</p>\n<p>Rising volumes, and falling market share are to be expected in a nascent industry. The problem is that Tesla’s isn’t priced for declining market share. It is priced for massive market share gains, unheard of gains in nearly any industry across the globe, especially in an industry as large and competitive as passenger vehicles.</p>\n<p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own 60%+ of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p>\n<p>At its current average selling price (ASP) of ~$51k, Tesla’s stock price of ~1,200/share implies the firm will sell 16 million vehicles in 2030 (versus ~800k TTM), or 60% of the&nbsp;projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market&nbsp;in 2030. For reference, Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst with a price target of $1,600/share, projects Tesla will sell&nbsp;8.1 million vehicles&nbsp;in 2030.</p>\n<p>I think it is unlikely that Tesla will sell such a high volume of vehicles at a $51k ASP, yet the implied vehicle sales based on lower ASPs look even more impractical.</p>\n<p>As detailed in the next section, this analysis assumes Tesla achieves profit margins twice as high as Toyota (TM) and quadruples its current auto manufacturing efficiency. In other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price.</p>\n<p>Per Figure 3, Tesla’s current valuation implies that, in 2030, it will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>16 million vehicles – current ASP of $51k</li>\n <li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38k (average new car price in the U.S. in 2020)</li>\n <li>46 million vehicles – ASP of $17k (equal to General Motors over the TTM)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 25.8 million in 2030, the&nbsp;base case projection from the IEA):</p>\n<ul>\n <li>60% for 16 million vehicles</li>\n <li>80% for 21 million vehicles</li>\n <li>179% for 46 million vehicles</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If I assume the&nbsp;IEA’s best case&nbsp;for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 46.8 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>33% for 16 million vehicles</li>\n <li>44% for 21 million vehicles</li>\n <li>98% for 46 million vehicles</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Figure 3:&nbsp;Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify Current Valuation</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6d6230910209d16f55e6e527130d43\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Math Shows that Tesla Must be More Profitable Than Apple</b></p>\n<p>Here are the assumptions I use in my&nbsp;reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model&nbsp;to calculate the implied production levels above.</p>\n<p>To justify its current price of ~$1,200/share, Tesla must:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>immediately achieve a 17.2% NOPAT margin (double Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers I cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and</li>\n <li>grow revenue by 38% compounded annually for the next decade.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In this&nbsp;scenario, Tesla generates&nbsp;<b>$783 billion</b>&nbsp;in revenue in 2030, which is 102% of the combined revenues of Toyota, General Motors, Ford (F), Honda Motor Corp (HMC), and Stellantis (STLA) over the TTM.</p>\n<p>This scenario also implies Tesla generates $135 billion in net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) in 2030, or 45% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $93 billion, is the highest of all&nbsp;companies my firm covers.</p>\n<p><b>TSLA Has 60%+ Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p>\n<p>If I assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $38k, the stock is worth just $483/share. Details:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>NOPAT margin improves to 17.2% and</li>\n <li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li>\n</ul>\n<p>the stock is worth just $483/share today – 60% downside to the current price.&nbsp;See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $60 billion, or nearly 17x its TTM NOPAT, and just 3% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) TTM NOPAT.</p>\n<p><b>TSLA Has 88%+ Downside Even with 28% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p>\n<p>If I estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $148/share. Here’s the math:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>NOPAT margin improves to 8.5% (equal to General Motors’ TTM margin, compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and</li>\n <li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2021-2023 and</li>\n <li>revenue grows 18% a year from 2024-2030, then</li>\n</ul>\n<p>the stock is worth just $148/share today – an 88% downside to the current price.</p>\n<p>In this&nbsp;scenario, Tesla sells 7.2 million cars (at an ASP of 38k) and owns 28% of the global passenger EV market in 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $148/share.</p>\n<p>Also, for this scenario, I assume a much more realistic NOPAT margin, 8.5%, for Tesla. Given the expansion required of the business, struggles to be profitable to date, and formidable competition, I think Tesla will be lucky to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 8.5% from 2021-2030.</p>\n<p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied by its current stock price, the 8.1 million vehicle sales scenario, and the 7.2 million vehicle sales scenario to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, I show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d334530f3477d58879490d628fa8ef\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s&nbsp;invested capital&nbsp;grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 53% compounded annually from 2010-2020 and 29% compounded annually from 2015-2020. Invested capital at the end of 3Q21 grew 21% YoY. Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment has grown even faster, at 58% compounded annually, since 2010.</p>\n<p>A 14% CAGR represents 1/4th&nbsp;the CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2010 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 4x more efficiently than it has so far.</p>\n<p>In other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Why Tesla’s $1 Trillion Valuation Is Ridiculous</b></p>\n<p>Now that I’ve shown how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation are, I’ll present some of the many challenges Tesla faces to meet those expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla Remains “Just” a Car Company, Despite Bulls’ Arguments Otherwise.</b>One of the most common arguments bulls make to justify Tesla’s valuation is that the company is more than just a car company. Instead, the argument goes: Tesla is a software, tech, insurance, energy, transportation, “insert any other blank” company. However, the financials bear out a different picture and show the other businesses are more hype than substance. At this point, Tesla is a only car company and generates the entirety of its profits from vehicles.</p>\n<p>Per Figure 5, Tesla generated 88% of revenue from Automotive Sales in 3Q21, which is up from 87% in 3Q20, and above the quarterly average of 86% since 3Q19. For reference, automotive sales made up 87% and 93% of General Motors’ and Ford’s 3Q21 revenue respectively.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 5:&nbsp;Tesla’s Revenue Breakdown: 3Q19 – 3Q21</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b77f52dfd7a9cb05f19a91ac8811919\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla’s two other segments, Energy generation and storage and Services and other, which make up 12% of revenue in 3Q21, are unprofitable. Over the TTM, Tesla generated $10.8 billion in gross profit. $11.2 billion came from its Automotive segment while Energy generation and storage and Services and other racked up gross losses of $113 million and $263 million. Despite many claims and promises to the contrary over the years, Tesla doesn’t generate gross profit doing anything but selling cars.</p>\n<p><b>Insurance Business Is Not Material.</b>&nbsp;Tesla bulls will also point to Tesla’s insurance business as another way to drive profit growth. I’ve&nbsp;previously covered&nbsp;how Tesla insurance does not have the competitive advantages that bulls ascribe to it and has a long way to go before it can get meaningfully off the ground.</p>\n<p>Even if Tesla’s insurance business gets off the ground, I would not expect it to make much money. For example, from 2004-2006, General Motors generated about $70 per car sold in GAAP net income from its insurance business. If I assume Tesla can generate the same level of business, Tesla insurance would result in just $57 million in GAAP net income based on TTM vehicles sold.</p>\n<p>Bulls will counter that Tesla will be so much better at insurance than GM and that GM is not a good comp. There is no way to know for sure. Nevertheless, I concede that anything is possible, but the likelihood of Tesla’s insurance business being material profit producer is extremely low.</p>\n<p>Regardless of how successful Tesla insurance is, the potential profits from it are nowhere near enough to help to justify the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price.</p>\n<p><b>Production Capacity Growth Will Require Billions of $.</b>Current and expected production capacities of all known Tesla factories equals ~2.7 million vehicles, or 12.9 million short of the 2030 production implied by its stock price. See Figure 6.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the new factories coming online, Tesla must spend billions and build many new manufacturing plants before it can approach the capacity needed to sell the number of cars implied by its valuation.</p>\n<p>Given the&nbsp;many issues&nbsp;in ramping production in the past, investors should not assume Tesla can increase its production by 5x without any problems.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 6:&nbsp;Tesla’s Pending Production Shortfall</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0c946fecb2fd037adac367c7c5b7c2\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">*Projection based on&nbsp;InsideEVs estimate&nbsp;of 600,000 vehicles per year</p>\n<p>**Optimistic assumption based on Texas being Tesla’s biggest factory and&nbsp;possibly the largest factory&nbsp;in the United States</p>\n<p><b>Incumbents Must Fail for Tesla to Meet Growth Expectations.</b>For many years now, incumbent automakers have spent billions of dollars building out their EV offerings. Automakers other than Tesla already account for 85% of&nbsp;global EV sales&nbsp;through the first half of 2021.</p>\n<p>The global EV market is simply not big enough for Tesla to achieve the sales expectations in its valuation unless nearly all of the incumbents reverse course and completely fail to sell EVs.</p>\n<p>Here are the projections from the large incumbent automakers that have provided specific goals for future EV production.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Volkswagen Group projects that&nbsp;50% of its global sales&nbsp;will be fully electric by 2030</li>\n <li>Stellantis projects&nbsp;70%&nbsp;and&nbsp;40%&nbsp;of its European and North American sales, respectively, will be fully electric by 2030</li>\n <li>Ford&nbsp;projects&nbsp;that 40% of its sales will be fully electric by 2030.</li>\n <li>Toyota&nbsp;projects&nbsp;that it will sell 2 million EVs by 2030</li>\n <li>Honda&nbsp;plans&nbsp;to sell only EVs in China by 2030</li>\n <li>BMW&nbsp;expects&nbsp;at least half its sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030</li>\n <li>Daimler, manufacturer of Mercedes Benz,&nbsp;expects&nbsp;half its sales to be “EV and hybrid by 2025”</li>\n <li>General Motors is&nbsp;targeting&nbsp;EV sales of “more than 1 million” by 2025</li>\n <li>Volvo&nbsp;plans&nbsp;to sell only fully electric vehicles by 2030</li>\n <li>Nissan&nbsp;projects&nbsp;40% of U.S. sales to be EVs by 2030</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Based on these projections, I estimate how many EVs each company aims to produce[1]&nbsp;by 2030 and the market share implied by that production as a percentage of&nbsp;base-case global passenger EV sales in 2030.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Volkswagen Group: 5.5 million, 21% market share</li>\n <li>Stellantis: 3.6 million[2], 14% market share</li>\n <li>Ford: 2.2 million, 9% market share</li>\n <li>Toyota: 2 million, 8% market share</li>\n <li>Honda (in China): 1.5 million, 6% market share</li>\n <li>BMW: 1.3 million, 5% market share</li>\n <li>Mercedes Benz: 1.2+ million, 5% market share</li>\n <li>General Motors: 1+ million, 4% market share</li>\n <li>Volvo: 700,000, 3% market share</li>\n <li>Nissan (in U.S.): 500,000, 2% market share</li>\n <li><b>Total = 19+ million vehicles and 75% market share</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>These estimates do not include other incumbents and new entrants (e.g. Jaguar Land Rover, NIO Inc. [NIO], Rivian [RIVN], Ludic [LCID] and more) or other Chinese EV makers because I could not find specific projections for EV production. Nevertheless, I am confident that their combined market share will be more than zero.</p>\n<p>The point is that the rest of the world is not planning to stand by, give up existing market share, and let Tesla own majority of the EV market. Many very experienced and successful automakers are spending many multiples of what Tesla is spending to compete in the EV market.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that it is hard to make a straight-faced argument that Tesla can achieve the sales implied by its valuation in a competitive market.</p>\n<p><b>Incumbents Can Afford to Spend More than Tesla.</b>Incumbents already have infrastructure to produce and sell vehicles at scale, and they are spending billions of dollars to compete in the EV market. Ford, Volkswagen, General Motors, and Stellantis alone are planning to spend at least $280 billion through 2025 and produce over 12 million EVs by 2030.</p>\n<p>Given the huge investments from multiple competitors, I expect the EV market will be extremely competitive, as manufacturers fight for profits and market share. The “winner take all” outcome implied by Tesla’s valuation is extremely unlikely. Perhaps, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi&nbsp;said it best, “the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and I believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time, as has been the case historically.\" In such a market, Tesla cannot achieve the market share implied by its valuation.</p>\n<p>Unlike Tesla, the incumbents generate plenty of free cash flow (FCF) to fund their EV investments and don’t have to dilute existing shareholders to expand EV capacity as Tesla does. For instance, over the last five years, General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford generated a cumulative $12.4 billion, $7.1, and $6.1 billion in free cash flow while Tesla burned -$19.5 billion.</p>\n<p><b>FSD Continues to Overpromise And Underdeliver.</b>Full-self driving (FSD) has been consistently plagued by issues that, unfortunately, have deadly consequences. Industry research provider Guidehouse Insights ranks Tesla last in its&nbsp;2021 ranking&nbsp;of Automated Driver Systems (ADS), and states flatly, “Tesla needs a thorough rethink of its approach to developing ADS. It has overpromised with its marketing for nearly 5 years and severely underdelivered.”</p>\n<p>Per Figure 7, Tesla lags the competition by quite a large margin, as it’s the only company that falls into the \"Followers\" category.</p>\n<p>The most recent problems with Tesla’s FSD version 10.3 forced the company to&nbsp;roll back the update&nbsp;as users reported false crash warnings and other problems with autosteer and cruise control. These issues resulted in Tesla recalling nearly 12,000 vehicles because “a communication error may cause a false forward-collision warning or unexpected activation of the emergency brakes,”&nbsp;according&nbsp;to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).</p>\n<p>While the roll out of an updated 10.3.1 has restarted, Tesla’s haphazard approach to deploying FSD remains unsettling and led Guidehouse Insights to&nbsp;note, “Tesla’s approach to testing its system is fundamentally at odds with virtually every other company in this industry.”</p>\n<p><b>Figure 7:&nbsp;Tesla Ranks Last Amongst Automated Driver Systems</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ddd92d3ed67347fa0741599f91ce31d\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"739\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Alphabet’s Waymo&nbsp;routinely&nbsp;ranks as the best automated driving system. Importantly, many of the firms ranked ahead of Tesla are focused solely on building automated driving systems and are not distracted by scaling up automobile production, delivery logistics, and the general day-to-day operations of producing cars. Even so, other direct competitors such as GM Super Cruise also get&nbsp;better scores&nbsp;from&nbsp;third-party organizations.</p>\n<p><b>Increased Regulatory Risk.</b>While Tesla has mysteriously avoided regulatory crackdown on its sales of FSD and practice of beta testing software on live drivers and roads, renewed requests from the NHTSA/National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) signal that Tesla might be held accountable for practices that many find highly misleading and dangerous to citizens.</p>\n<p>Missy Cummings, recently&nbsp;appointed&nbsp;as senior advisor for safety at the NHTSA, has expressed concerns about Tesla’s FSD in the past, tweeting as far back as 2019 that Tesla’s “autopilot easily cause mode confusion, is unreliable and unsafe” and that “NHTSA should require Tesla turn it off.”</p>\n<p>More recently, Tesla requested “confidential business information treatment” on its responses to a litany of information requests the NHTSA made as part of its investigation into FSD. If approved, the public would likely never see Tesla’s responses to key questions pertaining to Tesla not issuing a recall for Autopilot after multiple accidents involving parked emergency vehicles, the selection criteria for Tesla’s FSD beta testing program, and the non-disclosure agreements Tesla was making drivers sign before they could use the beta system.</p>\n<p>The NHTSA is not alone in criticizing Tesla and its FSD rollout. On October 26, 2021, the head of the U.S. NTSB, Jennifer Homendy, said that Tesla has not yet officially responded to the NTSB regarding its safety recommendations while calling the use of full self-driving ”misleading.” She stated, “my biggest concern is that Tesla is rolling out full self-driving technology in beta on city streets with untrained drivers and they have not addressed our recommendations that we’ve issued as a result of numerous investigations of Tesla crashes.”</p>\n<p><b>Battery Technologies Are Nothing Special.</b>Tesla announced it will be switching to a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery in all standard range cars. These batteries are already being used in vehicles built in the Shanghai factory, and this switch is expected to bring down costs. The timing of this change comes as other battery producers, in partnership with incumbent auto manufacturers, are ramping up production, which should drive down battery costs for all EV makers. In other words, the competitive advantages of a cheaper battery may be short-lived, as incumbents build economies of scale in their own supply chain in the coming years.</p>\n<p>Additionally, while the much heralded 4680 cylindrical battery, produced by Panasonic for Tesla, and&nbsp;nearly ready for production, should bring a higher energy density in a more efficient package, competitors’ offerings all aim to provide the same.</p>\n<p>General Motor’s Ultium platform will enable up to 400-450 miles of range, and the firm is building a new battery research facility aimed at building batteries capable of 600 miles on a single charge. General Motors recently announced a joint venture with LG Chem to build a second U.S. battery cell plant, which is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to have an annual capacity of 35 gigawatt hours, or slightly above the 30 gigawatt hour capacity of its first Lordstown battery plant. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the “formation of Ultium/Ultium Cells LLC will prove to be a critical point of strategic differentiation that will ultimately drive value creation for [GM] shareholders.”</p>\n<p>Ford’s Mustang Mach-E became the&nbsp;first electric SUV&nbsp;not made by Tesla to reach an EPA-rated range of up to 300 miles, and the company recently entered a partnership with SK Innovation to build three U.S.-based battery plants to power 1 million EVs annually.</p>\n<p>On its own, LG Chem plans to expand its existing U.S. facilities and build two more plants that will produce both pouch cells used by General Motors, Ford, Jaguar, Audi, Porsche, and more, as well as the cylindrical cells used by Tesla.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the race for the “perfect” battery is less important than the race to procure battery supplies to build the number of EVs each manufacturer aims to produce in the coming years. The incumbents have proven they can maintain and win a race to procure supplies, and they’ve only been doing it for multiple decades now.</p>\n<p><b>Not All Supply Issues Can Be Coded Away.</b>To its credit, Tesla managed the global chip shortage relatively well by re-writing software to allow the use of alternative chips. However, not all supply issues can be solved via software, as evidenced by the growing wait times for Tesla’s vehicles. As Electrek&nbsp;notes, Tesla recently updated its delivery timelines for new orders, and depending upon specs, some vehicles won’t be delivered until September 2022 if ordered today. New orders for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which is Tesla’s cheapest vehicle, are currently on pace to be delivered in May 2022, or seven months from now.</p>\n<p>While certainly not unique to Tesla, extended delivery/wait times give consumers ample time to comparison shop and possibly switch orders to a competitor’s EV that would be available sooner.</p>\n<p>Delivery delays aren’t exclusive to in-production vehicles, but Tesla’s future vehicles as well. The much-hyped Cybertruck has recently been delayed again, this time until at least 2023 (compared to an original late 2021 release), which ultimately gives competitors more time to establish a presence in the EV truck market. I recently outlined the many competitors in the EV truck market in my&nbsp;report on Rivian.</p>\n<p><b>Putting It All Together: Tesla Provides Poor Risk/Reward</b></p>\n<p>Given the challenges ahead for Tesla, coupled with a valuation that implies it will take 60%+ of the global EV market share, I think it is clear: Tesla’s stock offers poor risk/reward.</p>\n<p>Tesla has proven risky to short, but investors need not buy shares today at such an elevated price.</p>\n<p>If you’re buying Tesla at its current valuation, you’re not only betting that it will be the only winner of the electrification of the global automotive fleet, but that it will somehow be twice as profitable as Toyota and achieve at least 60% market share. With anything less than total market domination, TSLA presents large downside risk.</p>","source":"fors","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-12 22:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/11/09/tesla-1-trillion-of-speculation/?sh=34ca1f2f77eb><strong>Forbes</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz (HTZ), which might not even ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/11/09/tesla-1-trillion-of-speculation/?sh=34ca1f2f77eb\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/11/09/tesla-1-trillion-of-speculation/?sh=34ca1f2f77eb","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163118124","content_text":"Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz (HTZ), which might not even happen.\nEven if it does come to pass, the Hertz order is a drop in the bucket of growth expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation. Tesla needs 155 Hertz-sized orders to justify the revenue expectations in its stock price. Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 60%+ of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple (AAPL) by 2030.\nThis report provides objective perspective on how outrageously high the valuation of Tesla stock is and the clear impracticality of the company meeting the expectations baked into its valuation.\nTesla’s Valuation vs. Competitors Makes No Sense\nTesla’s market cap is now greater than the next 10 largest (ranked by market cap) auto manufacturers combined.\nFigure 1: Tesla’s Market Cap Vs. Competitors\n\nThis valuation comes despite Tesla selling less than 1/50th of the vehicles than the combined total sold by the next 10 largest automakers over the trailing twelve months ended the first half of 2021. See Figure 2.\nI cannot conceive of a straight-faced argument for the disconnect between Tesla’s valuation and its vehicle sales compared to its competitors.\nFigure 2: Tesla’s Car Sales Vs. Competitors\n* Stellantis sales estimated as Fiat Chrysler and PSA Group’s 2H20 sales and Stellantis’ 1H21 sales. Stellantis was formed as a merger between the two in January 2021.\nIs the Hertz Deal Really Worth $100 Billion+ in Market Cap?\nEven if Hertz eventually agrees to buy 100,000 Tesla Model 3s, I do not think it is worth the $100 billion in market cap, or $1 million per vehicle, that we saw investors give Tesla’s market cap after the Hertz deal made headlines. Even Elon Musk questioned the surge in share price, noting that the price movement was “strange” given that Tesla is “very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem.”\nThis $100 billion market cap jump makes even less sense in the context of Tesla’s sky-high valuation before the announcement. Clearly, the feasibility of Tesla meeting the sales expectations embedded in its market cap plays no role in its valuation. For those that do care about expectations investing, I did the math and Tesla needs to successfully deliver on 155 Hertz-sized deals to meet the sales implied by a $1.2 trillion market cap.\nWill the Hertz Deal Result in Any Profits – If It Goes Through?\nAfter Elon Musk tweeted on November 1, 2021 that “no contract has been signed yet”, the Hertz deal reminds me of another famous tweet: \"am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”\nEven if the deal does go through, the pricing terms are very unclear. Elon insists that no cars will be sold at a discount. Meanwhile, Hertz CEO Mark Fields has made it clear that he is playing the field and working on getting cars from all EV manufacturers on his lot.\nEither Tesla is selling cars at a (large or small) discount, the deal terms are wrong, or the deal does not get done. If the deal gets done, I do not expect it to be profitable. Rental car companies are accustomed to getting discounts for bulk orders, and I see no reason for Hertz to expect to pay list prices on a deal for so many cars.\nAt the end of the day, I’m not sure pricing matters because I don't think the Hertz deal gets done. This affair is more about headlines and fueling speculation than doing any real business.\nTesla’s Global Market Share Getting Smaller\nTesla’s first-mover is already eroding, and its market share continues to decline. In the first half of 2021, Tesla sold 14.6% of the EVs sold worldwide compared to 18.8% over the same period in 2020.\nRising volumes, and falling market share are to be expected in a nascent industry. The problem is that Tesla’s isn’t priced for declining market share. It is priced for massive market share gains, unheard of gains in nearly any industry across the globe, especially in an industry as large and competitive as passenger vehicles.\nReverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own 60%+ of the Global Passenger EV Market\nAt its current average selling price (ASP) of ~$51k, Tesla’s stock price of ~1,200/share implies the firm will sell 16 million vehicles in 2030 (versus ~800k TTM), or 60% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030. For reference, Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst with a price target of $1,600/share, projects Tesla will sell 8.1 million vehicles in 2030.\nI think it is unlikely that Tesla will sell such a high volume of vehicles at a $51k ASP, yet the implied vehicle sales based on lower ASPs look even more impractical.\nAs detailed in the next section, this analysis assumes Tesla achieves profit margins twice as high as Toyota (TM) and quadruples its current auto manufacturing efficiency. In other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price.\nPer Figure 3, Tesla’s current valuation implies that, in 2030, it will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:\n\n16 million vehicles – current ASP of $51k\n21 million vehicles – ASP of $38k (average new car price in the U.S. in 2020)\n46 million vehicles – ASP of $17k (equal to General Motors over the TTM)\n\nIf Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 25.8 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):\n\n60% for 16 million vehicles\n80% for 21 million vehicles\n179% for 46 million vehicles\n\nIf I assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 46.8 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:\n\n33% for 16 million vehicles\n44% for 21 million vehicles\n98% for 46 million vehicles\n\nFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify Current Valuation\nThe Math Shows that Tesla Must be More Profitable Than Apple\nHere are the assumptions I use in my reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model to calculate the implied production levels above.\nTo justify its current price of ~$1,200/share, Tesla must:\n\nimmediately achieve a 17.2% NOPAT margin (double Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers I cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and\ngrow revenue by 38% compounded annually for the next decade.\n\nIn this scenario, Tesla generates $783 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 102% of the combined revenues of Toyota, General Motors, Ford (F), Honda Motor Corp (HMC), and Stellantis (STLA) over the TTM.\nThis scenario also implies Tesla generates $135 billion in net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) in 2030, or 45% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $93 billion, is the highest of all companies my firm covers.\nTSLA Has 60%+ Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales\nIf I assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $38k, the stock is worth just $483/share. Details:\n\nNOPAT margin improves to 17.2% and\nrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then\n\nthe stock is worth just $483/share today – 60% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $60 billion, or nearly 17x its TTM NOPAT, and just 3% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) TTM NOPAT.\nTSLA Has 88%+ Downside Even with 28% Market Share and Realistic Margins\nIf I estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $148/share. Here’s the math:\n\nNOPAT margin improves to 8.5% (equal to General Motors’ TTM margin, compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and\nrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2021-2023 and\nrevenue grows 18% a year from 2024-2030, then\n\nthe stock is worth just $148/share today – an 88% downside to the current price.\nIn this scenario, Tesla sells 7.2 million cars (at an ASP of 38k) and owns 28% of the global passenger EV market in 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $148/share.\nAlso, for this scenario, I assume a much more realistic NOPAT margin, 8.5%, for Tesla. Given the expansion required of the business, struggles to be profitable to date, and formidable competition, I think Tesla will be lucky to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 8.5% from 2021-2030.\nFigure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied by its current stock price, the 8.1 million vehicle sales scenario, and the 7.2 million vehicle sales scenario to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, I show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.\nFigure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios\n\nEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 53% compounded annually from 2010-2020 and 29% compounded annually from 2015-2020. Invested capital at the end of 3Q21 grew 21% YoY. Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment has grown even faster, at 58% compounded annually, since 2010.\nA 14% CAGR represents 1/4th the CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2010 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 4x more efficiently than it has so far.\nIn other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.\nWhy Tesla’s $1 Trillion Valuation Is Ridiculous\nNow that I’ve shown how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation are, I’ll present some of the many challenges Tesla faces to meet those expectations.\nTesla Remains “Just” a Car Company, Despite Bulls’ Arguments Otherwise.One of the most common arguments bulls make to justify Tesla’s valuation is that the company is more than just a car company. Instead, the argument goes: Tesla is a software, tech, insurance, energy, transportation, “insert any other blank” company. However, the financials bear out a different picture and show the other businesses are more hype than substance. At this point, Tesla is a only car company and generates the entirety of its profits from vehicles.\nPer Figure 5, Tesla generated 88% of revenue from Automotive Sales in 3Q21, which is up from 87% in 3Q20, and above the quarterly average of 86% since 3Q19. For reference, automotive sales made up 87% and 93% of General Motors’ and Ford’s 3Q21 revenue respectively.\nFigure 5: Tesla’s Revenue Breakdown: 3Q19 – 3Q21\nTesla’s two other segments, Energy generation and storage and Services and other, which make up 12% of revenue in 3Q21, are unprofitable. Over the TTM, Tesla generated $10.8 billion in gross profit. $11.2 billion came from its Automotive segment while Energy generation and storage and Services and other racked up gross losses of $113 million and $263 million. Despite many claims and promises to the contrary over the years, Tesla doesn’t generate gross profit doing anything but selling cars.\nInsurance Business Is Not Material. Tesla bulls will also point to Tesla’s insurance business as another way to drive profit growth. I’ve previously covered how Tesla insurance does not have the competitive advantages that bulls ascribe to it and has a long way to go before it can get meaningfully off the ground.\nEven if Tesla’s insurance business gets off the ground, I would not expect it to make much money. For example, from 2004-2006, General Motors generated about $70 per car sold in GAAP net income from its insurance business. If I assume Tesla can generate the same level of business, Tesla insurance would result in just $57 million in GAAP net income based on TTM vehicles sold.\nBulls will counter that Tesla will be so much better at insurance than GM and that GM is not a good comp. There is no way to know for sure. Nevertheless, I concede that anything is possible, but the likelihood of Tesla’s insurance business being material profit producer is extremely low.\nRegardless of how successful Tesla insurance is, the potential profits from it are nowhere near enough to help to justify the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price.\nProduction Capacity Growth Will Require Billions of $.Current and expected production capacities of all known Tesla factories equals ~2.7 million vehicles, or 12.9 million short of the 2030 production implied by its stock price. See Figure 6.\nIn other words, despite the new factories coming online, Tesla must spend billions and build many new manufacturing plants before it can approach the capacity needed to sell the number of cars implied by its valuation.\nGiven the many issues in ramping production in the past, investors should not assume Tesla can increase its production by 5x without any problems.\nFigure 6: Tesla’s Pending Production Shortfall\n*Projection based on InsideEVs estimate of 600,000 vehicles per year\n**Optimistic assumption based on Texas being Tesla’s biggest factory and possibly the largest factory in the United States\nIncumbents Must Fail for Tesla to Meet Growth Expectations.For many years now, incumbent automakers have spent billions of dollars building out their EV offerings. Automakers other than Tesla already account for 85% of global EV sales through the first half of 2021.\nThe global EV market is simply not big enough for Tesla to achieve the sales expectations in its valuation unless nearly all of the incumbents reverse course and completely fail to sell EVs.\nHere are the projections from the large incumbent automakers that have provided specific goals for future EV production.\n\nVolkswagen Group projects that 50% of its global sales will be fully electric by 2030\nStellantis projects 70% and 40% of its European and North American sales, respectively, will be fully electric by 2030\nFord projects that 40% of its sales will be fully electric by 2030.\nToyota projects that it will sell 2 million EVs by 2030\nHonda plans to sell only EVs in China by 2030\nBMW expects at least half its sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030\nDaimler, manufacturer of Mercedes Benz, expects half its sales to be “EV and hybrid by 2025”\nGeneral Motors is targeting EV sales of “more than 1 million” by 2025\nVolvo plans to sell only fully electric vehicles by 2030\nNissan projects 40% of U.S. sales to be EVs by 2030\n\nBased on these projections, I estimate how many EVs each company aims to produce[1] by 2030 and the market share implied by that production as a percentage of base-case global passenger EV sales in 2030.\n\nVolkswagen Group: 5.5 million, 21% market share\nStellantis: 3.6 million[2], 14% market share\nFord: 2.2 million, 9% market share\nToyota: 2 million, 8% market share\nHonda (in China): 1.5 million, 6% market share\nBMW: 1.3 million, 5% market share\nMercedes Benz: 1.2+ million, 5% market share\nGeneral Motors: 1+ million, 4% market share\nVolvo: 700,000, 3% market share\nNissan (in U.S.): 500,000, 2% market share\nTotal = 19+ million vehicles and 75% market share\n\nThese estimates do not include other incumbents and new entrants (e.g. Jaguar Land Rover, NIO Inc. [NIO], Rivian [RIVN], Ludic [LCID] and more) or other Chinese EV makers because I could not find specific projections for EV production. Nevertheless, I am confident that their combined market share will be more than zero.\nThe point is that the rest of the world is not planning to stand by, give up existing market share, and let Tesla own majority of the EV market. Many very experienced and successful automakers are spending many multiples of what Tesla is spending to compete in the EV market.\nThe bottom line is that it is hard to make a straight-faced argument that Tesla can achieve the sales implied by its valuation in a competitive market.\nIncumbents Can Afford to Spend More than Tesla.Incumbents already have infrastructure to produce and sell vehicles at scale, and they are spending billions of dollars to compete in the EV market. Ford, Volkswagen, General Motors, and Stellantis alone are planning to spend at least $280 billion through 2025 and produce over 12 million EVs by 2030.\nGiven the huge investments from multiple competitors, I expect the EV market will be extremely competitive, as manufacturers fight for profits and market share. The “winner take all” outcome implied by Tesla’s valuation is extremely unlikely. Perhaps, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said it best, “the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and I believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time, as has been the case historically.\" In such a market, Tesla cannot achieve the market share implied by its valuation.\nUnlike Tesla, the incumbents generate plenty of free cash flow (FCF) to fund their EV investments and don’t have to dilute existing shareholders to expand EV capacity as Tesla does. For instance, over the last five years, General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford generated a cumulative $12.4 billion, $7.1, and $6.1 billion in free cash flow while Tesla burned -$19.5 billion.\nFSD Continues to Overpromise And Underdeliver.Full-self driving (FSD) has been consistently plagued by issues that, unfortunately, have deadly consequences. Industry research provider Guidehouse Insights ranks Tesla last in its 2021 ranking of Automated Driver Systems (ADS), and states flatly, “Tesla needs a thorough rethink of its approach to developing ADS. It has overpromised with its marketing for nearly 5 years and severely underdelivered.”\nPer Figure 7, Tesla lags the competition by quite a large margin, as it’s the only company that falls into the \"Followers\" category.\nThe most recent problems with Tesla’s FSD version 10.3 forced the company to roll back the update as users reported false crash warnings and other problems with autosteer and cruise control. These issues resulted in Tesla recalling nearly 12,000 vehicles because “a communication error may cause a false forward-collision warning or unexpected activation of the emergency brakes,” according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).\nWhile the roll out of an updated 10.3.1 has restarted, Tesla’s haphazard approach to deploying FSD remains unsettling and led Guidehouse Insights to note, “Tesla’s approach to testing its system is fundamentally at odds with virtually every other company in this industry.”\nFigure 7: Tesla Ranks Last Amongst Automated Driver Systems\n\nAlphabet’s Waymo routinely ranks as the best automated driving system. Importantly, many of the firms ranked ahead of Tesla are focused solely on building automated driving systems and are not distracted by scaling up automobile production, delivery logistics, and the general day-to-day operations of producing cars. Even so, other direct competitors such as GM Super Cruise also get better scores from third-party organizations.\nIncreased Regulatory Risk.While Tesla has mysteriously avoided regulatory crackdown on its sales of FSD and practice of beta testing software on live drivers and roads, renewed requests from the NHTSA/National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) signal that Tesla might be held accountable for practices that many find highly misleading and dangerous to citizens.\nMissy Cummings, recently appointed as senior advisor for safety at the NHTSA, has expressed concerns about Tesla’s FSD in the past, tweeting as far back as 2019 that Tesla’s “autopilot easily cause mode confusion, is unreliable and unsafe” and that “NHTSA should require Tesla turn it off.”\nMore recently, Tesla requested “confidential business information treatment” on its responses to a litany of information requests the NHTSA made as part of its investigation into FSD. If approved, the public would likely never see Tesla’s responses to key questions pertaining to Tesla not issuing a recall for Autopilot after multiple accidents involving parked emergency vehicles, the selection criteria for Tesla’s FSD beta testing program, and the non-disclosure agreements Tesla was making drivers sign before they could use the beta system.\nThe NHTSA is not alone in criticizing Tesla and its FSD rollout. On October 26, 2021, the head of the U.S. NTSB, Jennifer Homendy, said that Tesla has not yet officially responded to the NTSB regarding its safety recommendations while calling the use of full self-driving ”misleading.” She stated, “my biggest concern is that Tesla is rolling out full self-driving technology in beta on city streets with untrained drivers and they have not addressed our recommendations that we’ve issued as a result of numerous investigations of Tesla crashes.”\nBattery Technologies Are Nothing Special.Tesla announced it will be switching to a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery in all standard range cars. These batteries are already being used in vehicles built in the Shanghai factory, and this switch is expected to bring down costs. The timing of this change comes as other battery producers, in partnership with incumbent auto manufacturers, are ramping up production, which should drive down battery costs for all EV makers. In other words, the competitive advantages of a cheaper battery may be short-lived, as incumbents build economies of scale in their own supply chain in the coming years.\nAdditionally, while the much heralded 4680 cylindrical battery, produced by Panasonic for Tesla, and nearly ready for production, should bring a higher energy density in a more efficient package, competitors’ offerings all aim to provide the same.\nGeneral Motor’s Ultium platform will enable up to 400-450 miles of range, and the firm is building a new battery research facility aimed at building batteries capable of 600 miles on a single charge. General Motors recently announced a joint venture with LG Chem to build a second U.S. battery cell plant, which is expected to have an annual capacity of 35 gigawatt hours, or slightly above the 30 gigawatt hour capacity of its first Lordstown battery plant. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that the “formation of Ultium/Ultium Cells LLC will prove to be a critical point of strategic differentiation that will ultimately drive value creation for [GM] shareholders.”\nFord’s Mustang Mach-E became the first electric SUV not made by Tesla to reach an EPA-rated range of up to 300 miles, and the company recently entered a partnership with SK Innovation to build three U.S.-based battery plants to power 1 million EVs annually.\nOn its own, LG Chem plans to expand its existing U.S. facilities and build two more plants that will produce both pouch cells used by General Motors, Ford, Jaguar, Audi, Porsche, and more, as well as the cylindrical cells used by Tesla.\nUltimately, the race for the “perfect” battery is less important than the race to procure battery supplies to build the number of EVs each manufacturer aims to produce in the coming years. The incumbents have proven they can maintain and win a race to procure supplies, and they’ve only been doing it for multiple decades now.\nNot All Supply Issues Can Be Coded Away.To its credit, Tesla managed the global chip shortage relatively well by re-writing software to allow the use of alternative chips. However, not all supply issues can be solved via software, as evidenced by the growing wait times for Tesla’s vehicles. As Electrek notes, Tesla recently updated its delivery timelines for new orders, and depending upon specs, some vehicles won’t be delivered until September 2022 if ordered today. New orders for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which is Tesla’s cheapest vehicle, are currently on pace to be delivered in May 2022, or seven months from now.\nWhile certainly not unique to Tesla, extended delivery/wait times give consumers ample time to comparison shop and possibly switch orders to a competitor’s EV that would be available sooner.\nDelivery delays aren’t exclusive to in-production vehicles, but Tesla’s future vehicles as well. The much-hyped Cybertruck has recently been delayed again, this time until at least 2023 (compared to an original late 2021 release), which ultimately gives competitors more time to establish a presence in the EV truck market. I recently outlined the many competitors in the EV truck market in my report on Rivian.\nPutting It All Together: Tesla Provides Poor Risk/Reward\nGiven the challenges ahead for Tesla, coupled with a valuation that implies it will take 60%+ of the global EV market share, I think it is clear: Tesla’s stock offers poor risk/reward.\nTesla has proven risky to short, but investors need not buy shares today at such an elevated price.\nIf you’re buying Tesla at its current valuation, you’re not only betting that it will be the only winner of the electrification of the global automotive fleet, but that it will somehow be twice as profitable as Toyota and achieve at least 60% market share. With anything less than total market domination, TSLA presents large downside risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879484082,"gmtCreate":1636764017553,"gmtModify":1636769305262,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4099321825774310","idStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879484082","repostId":"870635544","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":870635544,"gmtCreate":1636609246485,"gmtModify":1636617329814,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667591235607","idStr":"3527667591235607"},"themes":[],"title":"Tesla plunged 12%. How to use options now?","htmlText":"The weekend review&nbsp;mentioned that Tesla Motors's U-turn can happen every minute, and even if Musk doesn't want to sell stocks, there will be other news stimulation. Facts have proved that there is no stock that only rises but does not fall. The more brave it is when it rises, the more exciting it is when it falls. Tesla Motors is like this, and NVIDIA Corp will have it. Don't worry. I don't hold Tesla Motors right now, my Tesla Motors at 900 and 1000 were sent out by me through sell covered call. If you still hold Tesla Motors's shares, it is best to do some protection in the U-turn market, so&nbsp;how do&nbsp;you do protection through options? You can make a Collar option&nbsp;strategy, or sell covered call directly to make a profit-stopping strategy to earn some premium. Selling cov","listText":"The weekend review&nbsp;mentioned that Tesla Motors's U-turn can happen every minute, and even if Musk doesn't want to sell stocks, there will be other news stimulation. Facts have proved that there is no stock that only rises but does not fall. The more brave it is when it rises, the more exciting it is when it falls. Tesla Motors is like this, and NVIDIA Corp will have it. Don't worry. I don't hold Tesla Motors right now, my Tesla Motors at 900 and 1000 were sent out by me through sell covered call. If you still hold Tesla Motors's shares, it is best to do some protection in the U-turn market, so&nbsp;how do&nbsp;you do protection through options? You can make a Collar option&nbsp;strategy, or sell covered call directly to make a profit-stopping strategy to earn some premium. Selling cov","text":"The weekend review mentioned that Tesla Motors's U-turn can happen every minute, and even if Musk doesn't want to sell stocks, there will be other news stimulation. Facts have proved that there is no stock that only rises but does not fall. The more brave it is when it rises, the more exciting it is when it falls. Tesla Motors is like this, and NVIDIA Corp will have it. Don't worry. I don't hold Tesla Motors right now, my Tesla Motors at 900 and 1000 were sent out by me through sell covered call. If you still hold Tesla Motors's shares, it is best to do some protection in the U-turn market, so how do you do protection through options? You can make a Collar option strategy, or sell covered call directly to make a profit-stopping strategy to earn some premium. Selling cov","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2ba0987a51c269069820c59ef7e194","width":"1125","height":"2188"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d4517e8e2fc1b42438537f8764ff718","width":"1468","height":"1198"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccca28a2263d883d028815d6cedf9fd","width":"1394","height":"744"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870635544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":877481225,"gmtCreate":1637972375763,"gmtModify":1637979351941,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877481225","repostId":"877914322","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":877914322,"gmtCreate":1637866278968,"gmtModify":1637894036760,"author":{"id":"4095384287469350","authorId":"4095384287469350","name":"马斯克的小碎催","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b8ad896818368ea66f181053a54cd30","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095384287469350","authorIdStr":"4095384287469350"},"themes":[],"title":"蔚来也有未来自己的优势","htmlText":"蔚来的主营是均价43万高端智能电动汽车。但是蔚来还具备两个BYD、小鹏、特斯拉、长城等一众其他新能源车企绝无仅有的优势：&nbsp; &nbsp;第一，蔚来的APP社区粉丝具有很强的粘性。&nbsp; &nbsp;蔚来的粉丝是NIO自己独有的“萝莉养成”计划，而不是一个“蔚来粉儿”心里既爱着“特斯拉”又想着“蔚来”，这山望着那山高。蔚来的用户可以说我爱NIO到永远，但不会有的特斯拉、小鹏的用户说我爱特斯拉，我爱何小鹏，因为他们知道他们爱的特斯拉可能因为产能不足，导致车坏了，零配件买不到，他们爱的何小鹏也仅仅是因为一辆代步工具仅此而已。可以说，国内唯一接近蔚来粉丝粘性的只有跨界友商雷军的小米，但距第一辆车交付，至少还要等上三年起。&nbsp; 但要强调的是，雷军的死忠是手机的“米粉儿”并非“汽车粉”，米粉儿的粘性来自于粉丝对于小米手机的性能工艺和价格正反比的一种爱，同样也而不是“米粉”对于雷军的爱。&nbsp;&nbsp; 第二，蔚来具备完备且成熟的充换电网络。&nbsp; &nbsp;以刻骨铭心的十一“排队4小时、充电1小时”怪现状为例，新能源车要想立足，唯一的出路就是打消车主用户“远程焦虑症”，让充换电跟加油一样方便，通过联手中石油、中石化、壳牌在全国乃至全球，不断铺设充换电基础设施网络，才有可能不断地吸引更多的用户变现。然而超级充电桩等“充电5分钟，续航百公里”通过造噱头，自建充电站小马甲等都不如“充电+换电”相辅相成“双管齐下”带来的便捷更直接有效。&nbsp; &nbsp;所以，放眼未来，时间越拉越长，蔚来的优势就会越来越明显。不信大家走着瞧，时间可以说明一切<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","listText":"蔚来的主营是均价43万高端智能电动汽车。但是蔚来还具备两个BYD、小鹏、特斯拉、长城等一众其他新能源车企绝无仅有的优势：&nbsp; &nbsp;第一，蔚来的APP社区粉丝具有很强的粘性。&nbsp; &nbsp;蔚来的粉丝是NIO自己独有的“萝莉养成”计划，而不是一个“蔚来粉儿”心里既爱着“特斯拉”又想着“蔚来”，这山望着那山高。蔚来的用户可以说我爱NIO到永远，但不会有的特斯拉、小鹏的用户说我爱特斯拉，我爱何小鹏，因为他们知道他们爱的特斯拉可能因为产能不足，导致车坏了，零配件买不到，他们爱的何小鹏也仅仅是因为一辆代步工具仅此而已。可以说，国内唯一接近蔚来粉丝粘性的只有跨界友商雷军的小米，但距第一辆车交付，至少还要等上三年起。&nbsp; 但要强调的是，雷军的死忠是手机的“米粉儿”并非“汽车粉”，米粉儿的粘性来自于粉丝对于小米手机的性能工艺和价格正反比的一种爱，同样也而不是“米粉”对于雷军的爱。&nbsp;&nbsp; 第二，蔚来具备完备且成熟的充换电网络。&nbsp; &nbsp;以刻骨铭心的十一“排队4小时、充电1小时”怪现状为例，新能源车要想立足，唯一的出路就是打消车主用户“远程焦虑症”，让充换电跟加油一样方便，通过联手中石油、中石化、壳牌在全国乃至全球，不断铺设充换电基础设施网络，才有可能不断地吸引更多的用户变现。然而超级充电桩等“充电5分钟，续航百公里”通过造噱头，自建充电站小马甲等都不如“充电+换电”相辅相成“双管齐下”带来的便捷更直接有效。&nbsp; &nbsp;所以，放眼未来，时间越拉越长，蔚来的优势就会越来越明显。不信大家走着瞧，时间可以说明一切<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>","text":"蔚来的主营是均价43万高端智能电动汽车。但是蔚来还具备两个BYD、小鹏、特斯拉、长城等一众其他新能源车企绝无仅有的优势： 第一，蔚来的APP社区粉丝具有很强的粘性。 蔚来的粉丝是NIO自己独有的“萝莉养成”计划，而不是一个“蔚来粉儿”心里既爱着“特斯拉”又想着“蔚来”，这山望着那山高。蔚来的用户可以说我爱NIO到永远，但不会有的特斯拉、小鹏的用户说我爱特斯拉，我爱何小鹏，因为他们知道他们爱的特斯拉可能因为产能不足，导致车坏了，零配件买不到，他们爱的何小鹏也仅仅是因为一辆代步工具仅此而已。可以说，国内唯一接近蔚来粉丝粘性的只有跨界友商雷军的小米，但距第一辆车交付，至少还要等上三年起。 但要强调的是，雷军的死忠是手机的“米粉儿”并非“汽车粉”，米粉儿的粘性来自于粉丝对于小米手机的性能工艺和价格正反比的一种爱，同样也而不是“米粉”对于雷军的爱。 第二，蔚来具备完备且成熟的充换电网络。 以刻骨铭心的十一“排队4小时、充电1小时”怪现状为例，新能源车要想立足，唯一的出路就是打消车主用户“远程焦虑症”，让充换电跟加油一样方便，通过联手中石油、中石化、壳牌在全国乃至全球，不断铺设充换电基础设施网络，才有可能不断地吸引更多的用户变现。然而超级充电桩等“充电5分钟，续航百公里”通过造噱头，自建充电站小马甲等都不如“充电+换电”相辅相成“双管齐下”带来的便捷更直接有效。 所以，放眼未来，时间越拉越长，蔚来的优势就会越来越明显。不信大家走着瞧，时间可以说明一切$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$$蔚来(NIO)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640475664598caccc18a8ce11387d236","width":"4608","height":"3456"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877914322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600193503,"gmtCreate":1638080429071,"gmtModify":1638085320946,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600193503","repostId":"2186432895","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2186432895","pubTimestamp":1638069921,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186432895?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-28 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"$300 a Month in These 3 Stocks Could Make You a Millionaire by Retirement","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186432895","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"A little money can go a long way.","content":"<p>Thanks to the wonders of compound interest, it doesn't take a lot of money to grow a million-dollar nest egg. For example, investing $300 a month could grow into more than $1 million in 30 years if it can generate a 12% annual return. That's slightly better than the&nbsp;average stock market return&nbsp;over the last 50 years of nearly 11%.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>Many companies have a long history of beating the market. Three companies that appear likely to continue doing so in the decades ahead are&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEP\"><b>Brookfield Renewable</b>&nbsp;</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCI\"><b>Crown Castle International</b>&nbsp;</a>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEE\"><b>NextEra Energy</b>&nbsp;</a>. Because of that, $100 invested in each one every month could grow into a $1 million nest egg by retirement.</p>\n<h2>Benefiting from a powerful megatrend</h2>\n<p>Brookfield Renewable has enriched its investors over the years. Since its inception, the&nbsp;renewable energy&nbsp;producer has generated an annualized total return of 19%. The company had done that by investing billions of dollars into expanding its renewable energy portfolio. That has powered more than 10% annual growth in its cash flow per share, supporting 6% annual dividend increases over the last decade. </p>\n<p>However, Brookfield's best days appear to lie ahead. The global economy needs to invest trillions of dollars to decarbonize the energy sector over the next 30 years. That should enable Brookfield to continue to invest in expanding its renewable energy portfolio.</p>\n<p>The company currently has 36 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy projects in development. That's bigger than the company's current operating portfolio of about 21 GW. Combined with rising power rates, and its growing scale, these projects should support up to 11% annual cash flow per share growth through at least 2026. </p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Brookfield sees up to another 9% yearly boost from future acquisitions. Add that growing renewable-powered cash flow stream to the company's 3%-yielding dividend, and Brookfield appears to have the power to produce double-digit annual returns for decades to come.&nbsp;</p>\n<h2>Connected to the data supercycle</h2>\n<p>Crown Castle has been an exceptional value creator over the years. The infrastructure-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) has delivered a more than 13% annual total return over the two-plus decades since its initial public offering. </p>\n<p>A major driver of those returns has been the billions of dollars the company has poured into expanding its communications infrastructure portfolio. Over the last decade alone, the REIT spent $31 billion on acquisitions and capital expenditures (capex), powering 9% annual dividend growth since 2014.&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>\n<p>The company still sees significant investment opportunities ahead. Crown Castle noted that the telecom industry's rollout of&nbsp;5G networks&nbsp;represents a decade-long investment cycle. Meanwhile, some see a 100-year data infrastructure upgrade investment opportunity to support the digital economy. Because of that, Crown Castle has a lot of growth ahead of it, which should drive continued strong returns. </p>\n<p>Crown Castle expects to grow its 3.2%-yielding dividend at a 7% to 8% annual rate in the near term. That suggests the company could deliver double-digit total returns in the coming years.&nbsp;</p>\n<h2>Plugged into several growth catalysts</h2>\n<p>NextEra Energy has also created an enormous amount of wealth for its investors over the years. The&nbsp;utility&nbsp;has generated a roughly 700% total return over the last decade alone, crushing the 276% total return produced by the S&amp;P 500. Powering the company's robust results has been its ability to deliver above-average earnings and dividend growth. It has increased its earnings per share at an 8.7% compound annual rate since 2005, supporting 9.6% compound annual dividend growth. </p>\n<p>A major catalyst has been the company's leadership in renewable energy. It has grown into one of the world's largest wind and&nbsp;solar energy&nbsp;producers.&nbsp;</p>\n<p>That leadership should continue since it has one of the world's biggest backlogs of wind and solar energy development projects. In addition to tried-and-true technologies like wind and solar, NextEra is a leader in emerging technologies, including battery storage and green hydrogen. Meanwhile, it's&nbsp;tapping into other sources of growth&nbsp;like water infrastructure. Because of that, NextEra should have plenty of power to continue growing its earnings and dividend in the decades ahead.</p>\n<h2>Grow rich slowly</h2>\n<p>Compound interest can do wonders for your retirement. Steadily investing a few hundred dollars each month into high-performing stocks can create an enormous amount of wealth. One of the keys to finding stocks that can deliver decades of strong returns is focusing on those benefiting from megatrends. Few are as big and enduring as renewable energy and data, making Brookfield Renewable, Crown Castle, and NextEra Energy stand out as stocks that could mint their share of millionaires in the decades ahead.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>$300 a Month in These 3 Stocks Could Make You a Millionaire by Retirement</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n$300 a Month in These 3 Stocks Could Make You a Millionaire by Retirement\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-28 11:25 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/300-a-month-in-these-3-stocks-could-make-you-a-mil/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Thanks to the wonders of compound interest, it doesn't take a lot of money to grow a million-dollar nest egg. For example, investing $300 a month could grow into more than $1 million in 30 years if it...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/300-a-month-in-these-3-stocks-could-make-you-a-mil/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CCI":"冠城","NEE":"新纪元能源","BEP":"Brookfield Renewable Partners LP"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/300-a-month-in-these-3-stocks-could-make-you-a-mil/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2186432895","content_text":"Thanks to the wonders of compound interest, it doesn't take a lot of money to grow a million-dollar nest egg. For example, investing $300 a month could grow into more than $1 million in 30 years if it can generate a 12% annual return. That's slightly better than the average stock market return over the last 50 years of nearly 11%. \nMany companies have a long history of beating the market. Three companies that appear likely to continue doing so in the decades ahead are Brookfield Renewable , Crown Castle International , and NextEra Energy . Because of that, $100 invested in each one every month could grow into a $1 million nest egg by retirement.\nBenefiting from a powerful megatrend\nBrookfield Renewable has enriched its investors over the years. Since its inception, the renewable energy producer has generated an annualized total return of 19%. The company had done that by investing billions of dollars into expanding its renewable energy portfolio. That has powered more than 10% annual growth in its cash flow per share, supporting 6% annual dividend increases over the last decade. \nHowever, Brookfield's best days appear to lie ahead. The global economy needs to invest trillions of dollars to decarbonize the energy sector over the next 30 years. That should enable Brookfield to continue to invest in expanding its renewable energy portfolio.\nThe company currently has 36 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy projects in development. That's bigger than the company's current operating portfolio of about 21 GW. Combined with rising power rates, and its growing scale, these projects should support up to 11% annual cash flow per share growth through at least 2026. \nMeanwhile, Brookfield sees up to another 9% yearly boost from future acquisitions. Add that growing renewable-powered cash flow stream to the company's 3%-yielding dividend, and Brookfield appears to have the power to produce double-digit annual returns for decades to come. \nConnected to the data supercycle\nCrown Castle has been an exceptional value creator over the years. The infrastructure-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) has delivered a more than 13% annual total return over the two-plus decades since its initial public offering. \nA major driver of those returns has been the billions of dollars the company has poured into expanding its communications infrastructure portfolio. Over the last decade alone, the REIT spent $31 billion on acquisitions and capital expenditures (capex), powering 9% annual dividend growth since 2014.   \nThe company still sees significant investment opportunities ahead. Crown Castle noted that the telecom industry's rollout of 5G networks represents a decade-long investment cycle. Meanwhile, some see a 100-year data infrastructure upgrade investment opportunity to support the digital economy. Because of that, Crown Castle has a lot of growth ahead of it, which should drive continued strong returns. \nCrown Castle expects to grow its 3.2%-yielding dividend at a 7% to 8% annual rate in the near term. That suggests the company could deliver double-digit total returns in the coming years. \nPlugged into several growth catalysts\nNextEra Energy has also created an enormous amount of wealth for its investors over the years. The utility has generated a roughly 700% total return over the last decade alone, crushing the 276% total return produced by the S&P 500. Powering the company's robust results has been its ability to deliver above-average earnings and dividend growth. It has increased its earnings per share at an 8.7% compound annual rate since 2005, supporting 9.6% compound annual dividend growth. \nA major catalyst has been the company's leadership in renewable energy. It has grown into one of the world's largest wind and solar energy producers. \nThat leadership should continue since it has one of the world's biggest backlogs of wind and solar energy development projects. In addition to tried-and-true technologies like wind and solar, NextEra is a leader in emerging technologies, including battery storage and green hydrogen. Meanwhile, it's tapping into other sources of growth like water infrastructure. Because of that, NextEra should have plenty of power to continue growing its earnings and dividend in the decades ahead.\nGrow rich slowly\nCompound interest can do wonders for your retirement. Steadily investing a few hundred dollars each month into high-performing stocks can create an enormous amount of wealth. One of the keys to finding stocks that can deliver decades of strong returns is focusing on those benefiting from megatrends. Few are as big and enduring as renewable energy and data, making Brookfield Renewable, Crown Castle, and NextEra Energy stand out as stocks that could mint their share of millionaires in the decades ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600970679,"gmtCreate":1638061257691,"gmtModify":1638063465382,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600970679","repostId":"2186340224","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2186340224","pubTimestamp":1638059445,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2186340224?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-28 08:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Got $5,000? These 2 Stocks Could Be Bargain Buys in 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2186340224","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Both of these businesses could be in much better shape a year from now.","content":"<p>Investing in stocks that are falling can be tough to do; nobody wants to look at their portfolio and see red. But if you're investing for the long haul, you know that short-term trends could subside, and this year's sell-off stock could be next year's top performer.</p>\n<p>That's exactly what I think of with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AZN\"><b>AstraZeneca&nbsp;</b></a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYND\"><b>Beyond Meat&nbsp;</b></a>. Both of these stocks have been falling recently, but heading into next year, things could look a lot better. If you can afford to invest $5,000 into these stocks, here's why you should consider doing so.</p>\n<h4><b>1. AstraZeneca</b></h4>\n<p>Shares of COVID-19 vaccine-maker AstraZeneca are down 5% over the past three months, while the <b>S&amp;P 500</b> has soared by more than 5%. The company released its third-quarter results on Nov. 12, which disappointed investors as it fell short of earnings expectations. The stock sank more than 6% on the day.</p>\n<p>But next year, things could look much different. Up until now, AstraZeneca hasn't been trying to make a profit from its COVID-19 vaccine. But now that the pandemic is turning into more of an endemic, the company is going to focus on turning a profit on the vaccine on any new orders.</p>\n<p>That means an increase in price. The company has been selling its vaccine for just a few dollars per dose, well below what other COVID-19 vaccine makers are charging countries.</p>\n<p>For the period ending Sept. 30, the company's COVID-19 vaccine generated over $1 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, rival vaccine-maker <b>Moderna</b> reported $4.8 billion in product sales for the same period, and <b>Pfizer</b>'s COVID-19 vaccine generated $13 billion in revenue, also during the same interval.</p>\n<p>While it's unclear just how much higher AstraZeneca's COVID-19-related revenue may climb on an increase in the vaccine's price, its top line is likely to get a boost next year nonetheless. Plus, it completed the acquisition of healthcare-company Alexion Pharmaceuticals in July, which has already started contributing to AstraZeneca's financials this past quarter to the tune of $1.3 billion in new revenue. Alexion's focus on rare diseases expands AstraZeneca's product mix and can set it up for some great gains over the long term.</p>\n<p>Although AstraZeneca incurred a net loss of $1.7 billion this past quarter, that's largely due to the acquisition of Alexion, as its operations are typically profitable. (In each of the previous four quarters, AstraZeneca has reported a profit margin of at least 6%.)</p>\n<p>As it integrates Alexion into its business and eliminates inefficiencies and redundancies, the company's financials will improve. That, combined with the additional revenue from the new business plus an increase in COVID-19 sales, could set the stock up for a terrific performance in 2022.</p>\n<h4><b>2. Beyond Meat</b></h4>\n<p>Beyond Meat's stock has been falling fast as it's down 36% in just three months. What was looking like it might be a promising year for the company amid reopenings has stalled due to the delta variant causing a spike in COVID-19 cases.</p>\n<p>The company had a bad earnings report and the stock has become a better buy in November. Although sales of $106.4 million for the period ending Oct. 2 rose 13% year over year, the company disappointed investors with a net loss of $54.8 million that was more than double the $19.3 million loss it reported in the same period in 2020. Beyond Meat doesn't project a picture of getting much better in the final quarter of the year, as it expects net revenue to fall within a range of just $85 million to $110 million.</p>\n<p>There's no shortage of bearishness surrounding Beyond Meat right now. But heading into next year, a lot can change. What's important is that the company has some great growth opportunities in place.</p>\n<p>Beyond's sales were up 13% this past quarter, but that was driven primarily by growth in the international markets, where revenue more than doubled to $38.9 million. In the U.S. market, sales of $67.5 million declined by 14%.</p>\n<p>However, if supply-chain issues resolve next year and COVID-19 case numbers come down as people receive booster shots, there's reason to believe that the U.S. numbers could strengthen with a return to normalcy in the economy. And fast-food restaurant <b>McDonald's</b> recently launched its McPlant burger (which features a Beyond Meat patty) in multiple U.S. cities. If successful, that could also lead to some improved financials for Beyond in 2022.</p>\n<p>Although the growth stock is beaten up today, a year from now, today's price could look like a bargain.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Got $5,000? These 2 Stocks Could Be Bargain Buys in 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGot $5,000? These 2 Stocks Could Be Bargain Buys in 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-28 08:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/these-2-stocks-could-be-bargain-buys-in-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investing in stocks that are falling can be tough to do; nobody wants to look at their portfolio and see red. But if you're investing for the long haul, you know that short-term trends could subside, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/these-2-stocks-could-be-bargain-buys-in-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AZN":"阿斯利康","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/27/these-2-stocks-could-be-bargain-buys-in-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2186340224","content_text":"Investing in stocks that are falling can be tough to do; nobody wants to look at their portfolio and see red. But if you're investing for the long haul, you know that short-term trends could subside, and this year's sell-off stock could be next year's top performer.\nThat's exactly what I think of with AstraZeneca  and Beyond Meat . Both of these stocks have been falling recently, but heading into next year, things could look a lot better. If you can afford to invest $5,000 into these stocks, here's why you should consider doing so.\n1. AstraZeneca\nShares of COVID-19 vaccine-maker AstraZeneca are down 5% over the past three months, while the S&P 500 has soared by more than 5%. The company released its third-quarter results on Nov. 12, which disappointed investors as it fell short of earnings expectations. The stock sank more than 6% on the day.\nBut next year, things could look much different. Up until now, AstraZeneca hasn't been trying to make a profit from its COVID-19 vaccine. But now that the pandemic is turning into more of an endemic, the company is going to focus on turning a profit on the vaccine on any new orders.\nThat means an increase in price. The company has been selling its vaccine for just a few dollars per dose, well below what other COVID-19 vaccine makers are charging countries.\nFor the period ending Sept. 30, the company's COVID-19 vaccine generated over $1 billion in revenue. Meanwhile, rival vaccine-maker Moderna reported $4.8 billion in product sales for the same period, and Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine generated $13 billion in revenue, also during the same interval.\nWhile it's unclear just how much higher AstraZeneca's COVID-19-related revenue may climb on an increase in the vaccine's price, its top line is likely to get a boost next year nonetheless. Plus, it completed the acquisition of healthcare-company Alexion Pharmaceuticals in July, which has already started contributing to AstraZeneca's financials this past quarter to the tune of $1.3 billion in new revenue. Alexion's focus on rare diseases expands AstraZeneca's product mix and can set it up for some great gains over the long term.\nAlthough AstraZeneca incurred a net loss of $1.7 billion this past quarter, that's largely due to the acquisition of Alexion, as its operations are typically profitable. (In each of the previous four quarters, AstraZeneca has reported a profit margin of at least 6%.)\nAs it integrates Alexion into its business and eliminates inefficiencies and redundancies, the company's financials will improve. That, combined with the additional revenue from the new business plus an increase in COVID-19 sales, could set the stock up for a terrific performance in 2022.\n2. Beyond Meat\nBeyond Meat's stock has been falling fast as it's down 36% in just three months. What was looking like it might be a promising year for the company amid reopenings has stalled due to the delta variant causing a spike in COVID-19 cases.\nThe company had a bad earnings report and the stock has become a better buy in November. Although sales of $106.4 million for the period ending Oct. 2 rose 13% year over year, the company disappointed investors with a net loss of $54.8 million that was more than double the $19.3 million loss it reported in the same period in 2020. Beyond Meat doesn't project a picture of getting much better in the final quarter of the year, as it expects net revenue to fall within a range of just $85 million to $110 million.\nThere's no shortage of bearishness surrounding Beyond Meat right now. But heading into next year, a lot can change. What's important is that the company has some great growth opportunities in place.\nBeyond's sales were up 13% this past quarter, but that was driven primarily by growth in the international markets, where revenue more than doubled to $38.9 million. In the U.S. market, sales of $67.5 million declined by 14%.\nHowever, if supply-chain issues resolve next year and COVID-19 case numbers come down as people receive booster shots, there's reason to believe that the U.S. numbers could strengthen with a return to normalcy in the economy. And fast-food restaurant McDonald's recently launched its McPlant burger (which features a Beyond Meat patty) in multiple U.S. cities. If successful, that could also lead to some improved financials for Beyond in 2022.\nAlthough the growth stock is beaten up today, a year from now, today's price could look like a bargain.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877651792,"gmtCreate":1637928656076,"gmtModify":1637928924215,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877651792","repostId":"875913334","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":875913334,"gmtCreate":1637594030277,"gmtModify":1644926912713,"author":{"id":"3574671931921507","authorId":"3574671931921507","name":"Wayneqq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d24be2c05653913e90f51e69cfe2a8","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574671931921507","authorIdStr":"3574671931921507"},"themes":[],"title":"Demystifying Options Part 5","htmlText":"This is part 5 of Demystifying Options... If you are not familiar with options, I would suggest reading my first 4 posts: Demystifying Options Part 1 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/857850006\" target=\"_blank\">Introduction to options</a> Demystifying Options Part 2 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/848960842\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 3 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/844959924\" target=\"_blank\">Buying Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 4 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/871625031\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Call options</a> A short recap on the types of options available... There are 2 types of options - Put option and Call option. You can buy and sell both of them. This post will be discussing about&nbsp;BUYING call options. When you BUY an opti","listText":"This is part 5 of Demystifying Options... If you are not familiar with options, I would suggest reading my first 4 posts: Demystifying Options Part 1 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/857850006\" target=\"_blank\">Introduction to options</a> Demystifying Options Part 2 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/848960842\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 3 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/844959924\" target=\"_blank\">Buying Put options</a> Demystifying Options Part 4 - <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/871625031\" target=\"_blank\">Selling Call options</a> A short recap on the types of options available... There are 2 types of options - Put option and Call option. You can buy and sell both of them. This post will be discussing about&nbsp;BUYING call options. When you BUY an opti","text":"This is part 5 of Demystifying Options... If you are not familiar with options, I would suggest reading my first 4 posts: Demystifying Options Part 1 - Introduction to options Demystifying Options Part 2 - Selling Put options Demystifying Options Part 3 - Buying Put options Demystifying Options Part 4 - Selling Call options A short recap on the types of options available... There are 2 types of options - Put option and Call option. You can buy and sell both of them. This post will be discussing about BUYING call options. When you BUY an opti","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22f4ddac42c5d5b06a9d7e27c56ce2f5","width":"358","height":"382"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875913334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874637290,"gmtCreate":1637765553165,"gmtModify":1637766175648,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874637290","repostId":"872562444","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":872562444,"gmtCreate":1637548934796,"gmtModify":1637575591905,"author":{"id":"3548388348794551","authorId":"3548388348794551","name":"问就是加仓up","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e98ddf789d46c5627f944fc581c0fe9","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548388348794551","authorIdStr":"3548388348794551"},"themes":[],"title":"画个蔚来的未来","htmlText":"相信关注蔚来的人都注意到周五盘后的消息，蔚来最近完成了20亿美元的融资，发售了5329wADS，平均价格为37.5美元左右。接近三个多月的增发终于结束了，这次增发和之前的发行有一个比较大的区别，这次是通过直接在市场出售股票进行融资的，所以影响时间相对来说更长，但是好处就是发行价格会更接近市场价，因为通常发行都会有一个价格折让，很多都是折让10个点起步。像蔚来这种短期并不是特别缺钱，通过一定的时间进行融资，总体还是值得点赞的。只是对于持股的人来说，这种操作太过摧残。我对蔚来的观点其实比较简单，中概股比较有希望的一个标的，目前是国产新能源在高端车领域比较成功的突破，基本面稳中向好，长期看是少有的可以对标特斯拉的标的之一。等趋势走起来，会考虑进场。 本文仅个人看法，目前没有持仓。买股票，我喜欢追趋势突破的，最起码日线级别的突破。因此前几天进场过，目前没有持仓。最近三个月买了不止两三次蔚来，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，资金硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，再展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱左右，最高到了67元，半年多涨了将近30倍，这一路无数人赚了大钱，我也算是一个（对我来说是比较多的钱）。然后再从最高的67，一路回落到最低30.7附近，在30这个位置获得了一个支撑，之后半年多股价基本上保持区间震荡，这次的增发也算一个比较大的因素。其实最近三个月，买了两三次蔚来不止，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，就是那种硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，然后展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱，最高到了67元，半","listText":"相信关注蔚来的人都注意到周五盘后的消息，蔚来最近完成了20亿美元的融资，发售了5329wADS，平均价格为37.5美元左右。接近三个多月的增发终于结束了，这次增发和之前的发行有一个比较大的区别，这次是通过直接在市场出售股票进行融资的，所以影响时间相对来说更长，但是好处就是发行价格会更接近市场价，因为通常发行都会有一个价格折让，很多都是折让10个点起步。像蔚来这种短期并不是特别缺钱，通过一定的时间进行融资，总体还是值得点赞的。只是对于持股的人来说，这种操作太过摧残。我对蔚来的观点其实比较简单，中概股比较有希望的一个标的，目前是国产新能源在高端车领域比较成功的突破，基本面稳中向好，长期看是少有的可以对标特斯拉的标的之一。等趋势走起来，会考虑进场。 本文仅个人看法，目前没有持仓。买股票，我喜欢追趋势突破的，最起码日线级别的突破。因此前几天进场过，目前没有持仓。最近三个月买了不止两三次蔚来，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，资金硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，再展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱左右，最高到了67元，半年多涨了将近30倍，这一路无数人赚了大钱，我也算是一个（对我来说是比较多的钱）。然后再从最高的67，一路回落到最低30.7附近，在30这个位置获得了一个支撑，之后半年多股价基本上保持区间震荡，这次的增发也算一个比较大的因素。其实最近三个月，买了两三次蔚来不止，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，就是那种硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，然后展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱，最高到了67元，半","text":"相信关注蔚来的人都注意到周五盘后的消息，蔚来最近完成了20亿美元的融资，发售了5329wADS，平均价格为37.5美元左右。接近三个多月的增发终于结束了，这次增发和之前的发行有一个比较大的区别，这次是通过直接在市场出售股票进行融资的，所以影响时间相对来说更长，但是好处就是发行价格会更接近市场价，因为通常发行都会有一个价格折让，很多都是折让10个点起步。像蔚来这种短期并不是特别缺钱，通过一定的时间进行融资，总体还是值得点赞的。只是对于持股的人来说，这种操作太过摧残。我对蔚来的观点其实比较简单，中概股比较有希望的一个标的，目前是国产新能源在高端车领域比较成功的突破，基本面稳中向好，长期看是少有的可以对标特斯拉的标的之一。等趋势走起来，会考虑进场。 本文仅个人看法，目前没有持仓。买股票，我喜欢追趋势突破的，最起码日线级别的突破。因此前几天进场过，目前没有持仓。最近三个月买了不止两三次蔚来，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，资金硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，再展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱左右，最高到了67元，半年多涨了将近30倍，这一路无数人赚了大钱，我也算是一个（对我来说是比较多的钱）。然后再从最高的67，一路回落到最低30.7附近，在30这个位置获得了一个支撑，之后半年多股价基本上保持区间震荡，这次的增发也算一个比较大的因素。其实最近三个月，买了两三次蔚来不止，每次进去的一个最大感受就是抛压很大，就是那种硬砸，抛压很大。不过这也不能完全说增发的原因，这是目前整个中概股的特点。今天这个帖子的主要内容是先回顾一下蔚来的过去，然后展望一下蔚来的未来。过去一年多，蔚来的股价发生了天翻地覆的变化，从去年3月份最低的2块钱，最高到了67元，半","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5173b6e1619b56547c33551610ca5da2","width":"688","height":"617"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872562444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874630317,"gmtCreate":1637765069872,"gmtModify":1637765448255,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874630317","repostId":"876821939","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":876821939,"gmtCreate":1637293434176,"gmtModify":1637321172562,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556134694513016","authorIdStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"What is Baba's Intrinsic Value - With Valuation Model","htmlText":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","listText":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","text":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on $Alibaba(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e32123f3fe711a94c20cea76325e7f4"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97bee6f41d4ceef1da78691a616a3869"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8b631d49bab6ba69b3aedbd5545335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876821939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872231781,"gmtCreate":1637536834867,"gmtModify":1637546525229,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872231781","repostId":"1153786917","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153786917","pubTimestamp":1637534687,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153786917?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 06:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153786917","media":"Barrons","summary":"The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week","content":"<p>The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from some of retail’s biggest names, including&nbsp;Best Buy,Burlington Stores,Dick’s Sporting Goods,Dollar Tree,and&nbsp;Gap.</p>\n<p>Friday will bring one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kick off for holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year.</p>\n<p>Non-retail highlights on the earnings calendar next week include&nbsp;Zoom Video Communications on Monday,Xpeng,Xiaomi Corporation,Autodesk,Dell Technologies,and&nbsp;VMware&nbsp;on Tuesday, Deere&nbsp;on Wednesday&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Meituan and RLX Technology&nbsp;on Friday.</p>\n<p>The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October on Monday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September.</p>\n<p>On Tuesday,IHS Markit&nbsp;releases both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the manufacturing PMI and 59 for the services PMI.</p>\n<p>On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting. The U.S. Census Bureau also releases the durable-goods report for October, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending for October.</p>\n<p>U.S. bourses and fixed-income markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., while the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p>\n<p>Agilent Technologies,Keysight Technologies,and Zoom Video Communications release quarterly results.</p>\n<p><b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September. Existing-home sales hit their post-financial-crisis peak at 6.73 million last October and have fallen for much of this year, partly due to supply constraints, especially at the lower-price end of the housing market.</p>\n<p>Analog Devices,Autodesk, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap,HPInc.,J.M. Smucker, Jacobs Engineering Group,Medtronic,and VMware report earnings.</p>\n<p><b>IHS Markit releases</b> both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 59 for the Services PMI. Both figures are slightly more than the October data. Both indexes are off their peaks from earlier this year, but higher than their levels from a year ago.</p>\n<p><b>The BEA reports</b> its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Economists forecast a 2.2% annualized rate of growth, higher than the BEA’s preliminary estimate of 2% from late October.</p>\n<p>Deere reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results.</p>\n<p><b>The Federal Open Market</b> Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting.</p>\n<p><b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable-goods report for October. Economists forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, to $262 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.5%, matching the September gain.</p>\n<p><b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and spending for October. The consensus call is for a 0.4% monthly increase in income after a 1% decline in September. Personal spending is expected to rise 1%, month over month, a faster clip than September’s 0.6% gain.</p>\n<p><b>U.S. bourses</b> and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.</p>\n<p><b>It’s Black Friday</b>, one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year. U.S. exchanges have a shortened trading session on the day after Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-22 06:44 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DELL":"戴尔",".DJI":"道琼斯","ZM":"Zoom","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BBY":"百思买"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153786917","content_text":"The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from some of retail’s biggest names, including Best Buy,Burlington Stores,Dick’s Sporting Goods,Dollar Tree,and Gap.\nFriday will bring one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kick off for holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year.\nNon-retail highlights on the earnings calendar next week include Zoom Video Communications on Monday,Xpeng,Xiaomi Corporation,Autodesk,Dell Technologies,and VMware on Tuesday, Deere on Wednesday and Pinduoduo,Meituan and RLX Technology on Friday.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October on Monday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September.\nOn Tuesday,IHS Markit releases both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the manufacturing PMI and 59 for the services PMI.\nOn Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting. The U.S. Census Bureau also releases the durable-goods report for October, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending for October.\nU.S. bourses and fixed-income markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., while the bond market closes at 2 p.m.\nAgilent Technologies,Keysight Technologies,and Zoom Video Communications release quarterly results.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September. Existing-home sales hit their post-financial-crisis peak at 6.73 million last October and have fallen for much of this year, partly due to supply constraints, especially at the lower-price end of the housing market.\nAnalog Devices,Autodesk, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap,HPInc.,J.M. Smucker, Jacobs Engineering Group,Medtronic,and VMware report earnings.\nIHS Markit releases both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 59 for the Services PMI. Both figures are slightly more than the October data. Both indexes are off their peaks from earlier this year, but higher than their levels from a year ago.\nThe BEA reports its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Economists forecast a 2.2% annualized rate of growth, higher than the BEA’s preliminary estimate of 2% from late October.\nDeere reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for October. Economists forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, to $262 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.5%, matching the September gain.\nThe BEA reports personal income and spending for October. The consensus call is for a 0.4% monthly increase in income after a 1% decline in September. Personal spending is expected to rise 1%, month over month, a faster clip than September’s 0.6% gain.\nU.S. bourses and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.\nIt’s Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year. U.S. exchanges have a shortened trading session on the day after Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872168475,"gmtCreate":1637459790682,"gmtModify":1637460516593,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872168475","repostId":"2184828468","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2184828468","pubTimestamp":1637456376,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2184828468?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-21 08:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Missed Out on Lucid and Rivian? 2 EV Stocks To Buy Now","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2184828468","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Electric vehicle growth stocks have flare, but there are value names out there too.","content":"<p>Even after slipping on Wednesday and Thursday, share prices of <b>Rivian Automotive</b> (NASDAQ:RIVN) and <b>Lucid Group</b> (NASDAQ:LCID) are up big over the last week as investors cheer newcomers to the electric vehicle (EV) scene.Both companies are bursting with potential but are a long way from profitability.</p>\n<p>If you feel like you missed out on Lucid and Rivian, or are simply looking for a better value in the EV sector, then<b> Ford</b> (NYSE:F)and <b>Nio</b> (NYSE:NIO) could be better options right now.</p>\n<h2>Sink or swim</h2>\n<p><b>Daniel Foelber (Ford): </b>10 years ago, <b>Tesla </b>(NASDAQ:TSLA) was a new, unproven, and heavily criticized EV company. Legacy automakers doubted the feasibility of EVs and continued with their established businesses. Today, the script has flipped as new and existing automakers clamor for a slice of the ever-growing EV pie.</p>\n<p>It takes humility to admit that you were wrong. And no legacy automaker is doing it better than Ford. Although Ford is a well-known brand, many folks aren't aware of the extent of its EV investments. Investors can use this misconception to their advantage as Ford is valued like a low growth legacy automaker when in reality its growth is set to accelerate thanks to EVs. Ford plans on spending $40 billion to $45 billion on strategic capital expenditures between 2020 and 2025 -- $30 billion of which is earmarked for battery EVs. However, it's worth mentioning that as EVs grow to comprise a larger share of Ford's sales mix, there should be a decline in sales from its legacy models over time. The challenge for Ford will be growing profits off of a larger EV mix, whether that's from higher margins from the vehicles themselves or software and other streams.</p>\n<p>Investors may be wondering why Ford is diving headfirst into EVs after years of resistance. The simplest answer is motive, as well as CEO Jim Farley who took over in October 2020.</p>\n<p>Business decisions are based on incentives. While companies like Tesla have spent the last decade growing, Ford has languished due to fierce competition and unsuccessful expansions into the sedan market. Without its core F-Series pickup line, it would likely have been toast. However, Ford is quickly becoming <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the biggest supporters of EVs. Similar to oil and gas, where the struggling companies like <b>BP</b> and <b>Royal Dutch Shell </b>are quick to embrace renewables while the more successful ones like <b>ExxonMobil </b>and <b>Chevron </b>are slow to change, Ford is the ideal car company to embrace EVs. It's investing in EVs at a faster rate than <b>Toyota</b>, <b>Honda</b>, <b>Mercedes-Benz, </b>and other internal combustion engine (ICE) automakers because, quite frankly, Ford is arguably not as good as those companies in the ICE field.</p>\n<p>Incentivized to avoid sinking, Ford is swimming toward EVs on the back of its F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E. With the electric truck and SUV market still relatively young, Ford is poised to become a contender and maybe even a leader in both classes.</p>\n<h2>Next leg of growth</h2>\n<p><b>Howard Smith&nbsp;(Nio):</b> Many investors thought they missed out on Chinese EV maker Nio in the early months of 2021 after the stock shot up to more than $60 per share, giving the company a market cap close to $100 billion. The frenzy came as people thought they needed to get into the next big EV stock. That scenario is starting to look familiar again as Rivian and Lucid garner much investor adoration and shares have soared.</p>\n<p>But Nio shares were subsequently cut in half, even though its business continued to drive ahead. The stock has recovered some, but it still has a lower valuation than both Rivian and Lucid currently. And with it already moving its business into Europe and working on doubling its production capacity, Nio could be the EV stock to buy for those that feel they've missed out on the recent run from those two U.S. start-ups.</p>\n<p>By the time Nio reports its next vehicle delivery data, it will likely have sold more than 150,000 of its electric SUVs. And while investor excitement around Rivian and Lucid is understandable, it shouldn't be lost that neither has produced any meaningful volume as of yet.</p>\n<p>While Nio has hit some recent bumps from supply chain disruptions, it continues to push forward on its next leg of growth. It sent its first export shipment to Norway this summer and is working to grow its community there. That consists of Nio House studios used by its customer communities, and its network of charging solutions which includes its unique battery swap stations that also help bring the company a stream of subscription revenue. Nio expects to sell its newest offering, the luxury ET7 sedan, into both Norway and Germany in 2022 as it expands to its next European market. This expansion comes as the company and its manufacturing partner are constructing new lines to more than double capacity as demand continues to grow. For those that missed out on the recent run in shares of Rivian or Lucid, Nio makes a good alternative EV investment right now.</p>\n<h2>Companies that are built to last</h2>\n<p>If you're tired of hearing about growth stocks like Rivian and Lucid, Ford and Nio could be good electric car options now. Both companies are established businesses generating real sales and ramping production. Ford's established and profitable business gives it the stability and extra cash needed to fund its EV exploits. Nio is a market leader in China and is growing at a breakneck pace. When valuations stray from fundamentals, sometimes it's best to ignore the limelight in search of hidden gems like Ford and Nio.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Missed Out on Lucid and Rivian? 2 EV Stocks To Buy Now</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMissed Out on Lucid and Rivian? 2 EV Stocks To Buy Now\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-21 08:59 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/20/missed-out-on-lucid-and-rivian-try-these-2-stocks/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Even after slipping on Wednesday and Thursday, share prices of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) are up big over the last week as investors cheer newcomers to the electric ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/20/missed-out-on-lucid-and-rivian-try-these-2-stocks/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","ICE":"洲际交易所","BK4099":"汽车制造商","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","F":"福特汽车","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NIO":"蔚来","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4555":"新能源车","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4509":"腾讯概念","EV":"MAST GLOBAL BATTERY RECYCLING & PRODUCTION ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/20/missed-out-on-lucid-and-rivian-try-these-2-stocks/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2184828468","content_text":"Even after slipping on Wednesday and Thursday, share prices of Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) and Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID) are up big over the last week as investors cheer newcomers to the electric vehicle (EV) scene.Both companies are bursting with potential but are a long way from profitability.\nIf you feel like you missed out on Lucid and Rivian, or are simply looking for a better value in the EV sector, then Ford (NYSE:F)and Nio (NYSE:NIO) could be better options right now.\nSink or swim\nDaniel Foelber (Ford): 10 years ago, Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) was a new, unproven, and heavily criticized EV company. Legacy automakers doubted the feasibility of EVs and continued with their established businesses. Today, the script has flipped as new and existing automakers clamor for a slice of the ever-growing EV pie.\nIt takes humility to admit that you were wrong. And no legacy automaker is doing it better than Ford. Although Ford is a well-known brand, many folks aren't aware of the extent of its EV investments. Investors can use this misconception to their advantage as Ford is valued like a low growth legacy automaker when in reality its growth is set to accelerate thanks to EVs. Ford plans on spending $40 billion to $45 billion on strategic capital expenditures between 2020 and 2025 -- $30 billion of which is earmarked for battery EVs. However, it's worth mentioning that as EVs grow to comprise a larger share of Ford's sales mix, there should be a decline in sales from its legacy models over time. The challenge for Ford will be growing profits off of a larger EV mix, whether that's from higher margins from the vehicles themselves or software and other streams.\nInvestors may be wondering why Ford is diving headfirst into EVs after years of resistance. The simplest answer is motive, as well as CEO Jim Farley who took over in October 2020.\nBusiness decisions are based on incentives. While companies like Tesla have spent the last decade growing, Ford has languished due to fierce competition and unsuccessful expansions into the sedan market. Without its core F-Series pickup line, it would likely have been toast. However, Ford is quickly becoming one of the biggest supporters of EVs. Similar to oil and gas, where the struggling companies like BP and Royal Dutch Shell are quick to embrace renewables while the more successful ones like ExxonMobil and Chevron are slow to change, Ford is the ideal car company to embrace EVs. It's investing in EVs at a faster rate than Toyota, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, and other internal combustion engine (ICE) automakers because, quite frankly, Ford is arguably not as good as those companies in the ICE field.\nIncentivized to avoid sinking, Ford is swimming toward EVs on the back of its F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E. With the electric truck and SUV market still relatively young, Ford is poised to become a contender and maybe even a leader in both classes.\nNext leg of growth\nHoward Smith (Nio): Many investors thought they missed out on Chinese EV maker Nio in the early months of 2021 after the stock shot up to more than $60 per share, giving the company a market cap close to $100 billion. The frenzy came as people thought they needed to get into the next big EV stock. That scenario is starting to look familiar again as Rivian and Lucid garner much investor adoration and shares have soared.\nBut Nio shares were subsequently cut in half, even though its business continued to drive ahead. The stock has recovered some, but it still has a lower valuation than both Rivian and Lucid currently. And with it already moving its business into Europe and working on doubling its production capacity, Nio could be the EV stock to buy for those that feel they've missed out on the recent run from those two U.S. start-ups.\nBy the time Nio reports its next vehicle delivery data, it will likely have sold more than 150,000 of its electric SUVs. And while investor excitement around Rivian and Lucid is understandable, it shouldn't be lost that neither has produced any meaningful volume as of yet.\nWhile Nio has hit some recent bumps from supply chain disruptions, it continues to push forward on its next leg of growth. It sent its first export shipment to Norway this summer and is working to grow its community there. That consists of Nio House studios used by its customer communities, and its network of charging solutions which includes its unique battery swap stations that also help bring the company a stream of subscription revenue. Nio expects to sell its newest offering, the luxury ET7 sedan, into both Norway and Germany in 2022 as it expands to its next European market. This expansion comes as the company and its manufacturing partner are constructing new lines to more than double capacity as demand continues to grow. For those that missed out on the recent run in shares of Rivian or Lucid, Nio makes a good alternative EV investment right now.\nCompanies that are built to last\nIf you're tired of hearing about growth stocks like Rivian and Lucid, Ford and Nio could be good electric car options now. Both companies are established businesses generating real sales and ramping production. Ford's established and profitable business gives it the stability and extra cash needed to fund its EV exploits. Nio is a market leader in China and is growing at a breakneck pace. When valuations stray from fundamentals, sometimes it's best to ignore the limelight in search of hidden gems like Ford and Nio.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879748395,"gmtCreate":1636779704160,"gmtModify":1636786233744,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879748395","repostId":"870099984","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":870099984,"gmtCreate":1636556889065,"gmtModify":1636620225040,"author":{"id":"3577922109777992","authorId":"3577922109777992","name":"Eldenminaj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b70c888201698b49ffaacadca9b58be","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577922109777992","authorIdStr":"3577922109777992"},"themes":[],"title":"Amazon VS Alibaba: Which is the better buy?","htmlText":"In the E-commerce industry, both this 2 companies, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a> &amp; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> are the strongest among all. With that being said, which company would be the best investment of the next decade?Lets look at the key takeaways: Both this company operate internationally. However, 92% of Alibaba's revenue comes from China. While for Amazon, only 64% comes from United States, while the rest comes from other countries. This shows that Amazon's revenue is more diversified and not just contributed from one country. Amazon's revenue is extremely high compared to Alibaba. For 12 months ended Q1 FY2020, Amaz","listText":"In the E-commerce industry, both this 2 companies, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$Amazon.com(AMZN)$</a> &amp; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> are the strongest among all. With that being said, which company would be the best investment of the next decade?Lets look at the key takeaways: Both this company operate internationally. However, 92% of Alibaba's revenue comes from China. While for Amazon, only 64% comes from United States, while the rest comes from other countries. This shows that Amazon's revenue is more diversified and not just contributed from one country. Amazon's revenue is extremely high compared to Alibaba. For 12 months ended Q1 FY2020, Amaz","text":"In the E-commerce industry, both this 2 companies, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ & $Alibaba(BABA)$$Alibaba(09988)$ are the strongest among all. With that being said, which company would be the best investment of the next decade?Lets look at the key takeaways: Both this company operate internationally. However, 92% of Alibaba's revenue comes from China. While for Amazon, only 64% comes from United States, while the rest comes from other countries. This shows that Amazon's revenue is more diversified and not just contributed from one country. Amazon's revenue is extremely high compared to Alibaba. For 12 months ended Q1 FY2020, Amaz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870099984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879484898,"gmtCreate":1636764028462,"gmtModify":1636769305340,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879484898","repostId":"1163118124","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1163118124","pubTimestamp":1636726239,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1163118124?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 22:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163118124","media":"Forbes","summary":"Tesla’s  market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz , which might not even happen.Even if it does come to pass, the Hertz order is a drop in the bucket of growth expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation. Tesla needs 155 Hertz-sized orders to justify the revenue expectations in its stock price. Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 60%+ of the entire global p","content":"<p>Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz (HTZ), which might&nbsp;not even happen.</p>\n<p>Even if it does come to pass, the Hertz order is a drop in the bucket of growth expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation. Tesla needs 155 Hertz-sized orders to justify the revenue expectations in its stock price. Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 60%+ of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple (AAPL) by 2030.</p>\n<p>This report provides objective perspective on how outrageously high the valuation of Tesla stock is and the clear impracticality of the company meeting the expectations baked into its valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla’s Valuation vs. Competitors Makes No Sense</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s market cap is now greater than the next 10 largest (ranked by market cap) auto manufacturers combined.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 1:&nbsp;Tesla’s Market Cap Vs. Competitors</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb58977e39c2d0ce868e80de26d098d9\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"393\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This valuation comes despite Tesla selling less than 1/50th&nbsp;of the vehicles than the combined total sold by the next 10 largest automakers over the trailing twelve months ended the first half of 2021. See Figure 2.</p>\n<p>I cannot conceive of a straight-faced argument for the disconnect between Tesla’s valuation and its vehicle sales compared to its competitors.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 2:&nbsp;Tesla’s Car Sales Vs. Competitors</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7fe8de12677dc13fe01f38fbafdcab27\" tg-width=\"946\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">* Stellantis sales estimated as Fiat Chrysler and PSA Group’s 2H20 sales and Stellantis’ 1H21 sales. Stellantis was formed as a merger between the two in January 2021.</p>\n<p><b>Is the Hertz Deal Really Worth $100 Billion+ in Market Cap?</b></p>\n<p>Even if Hertz eventually agrees to buy 100,000 Tesla Model 3s, I do not think it is worth the $100 billion in market cap, or $1 million per vehicle, that we saw investors give Tesla’s market cap after the Hertz deal made headlines. Even Elon Musk questioned the surge in share price, noting that the price movement was “strange” given that Tesla is “very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem.”</p>\n<p>This $100 billion market cap jump makes even less sense in the context of Tesla’s&nbsp;sky-high valuation&nbsp;before the announcement. Clearly, the feasibility of Tesla meeting the sales expectations embedded in its market cap plays no role in its valuation. For those that do care about&nbsp;expectations investing, I did the math and Tesla needs to successfully deliver on 155 Hertz-sized deals to meet the sales implied by a $1.2 trillion market cap.</p>\n<p><b>Will the Hertz Deal Result in Any Profits – If It Goes Through?</b></p>\n<p>After Elon Musk&nbsp;tweeted&nbsp;on November 1, 2021 that “no contract has been signed yet”, the Hertz deal reminds me of another&nbsp;famous tweet: \"am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”</p>\n<p>Even if the deal does go through, the pricing terms are very unclear. Elon insists that no cars will be sold at a discount. Meanwhile, Hertz CEO Mark Fields has made it clear that he is playing the field and working on getting cars from all EV manufacturers on his lot.</p>\n<p>Either Tesla is selling cars at a (large or small) discount, the deal terms are wrong, or the deal does not get done. If the deal gets done, I do not expect it to be profitable. Rental car companies are accustomed to getting discounts for bulk orders, and I see no reason for Hertz to expect to pay list prices on a deal for so many cars.</p>\n<p>At the end of the day, I’m not sure pricing matters because I don't think the Hertz deal gets done. This affair is more about headlines and fueling speculation than doing any real business.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla’s Global Market Share Getting Smaller</b></p>\n<p>Tesla’s first-mover is already eroding, and its market share continues to decline. In the first half of 2021, Tesla sold 14.6% of the EVs&nbsp;sold worldwide&nbsp;compared to 18.8% over the same period in 2020.</p>\n<p>Rising volumes, and falling market share are to be expected in a nascent industry. The problem is that Tesla’s isn’t priced for declining market share. It is priced for massive market share gains, unheard of gains in nearly any industry across the globe, especially in an industry as large and competitive as passenger vehicles.</p>\n<p><b>Reverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own 60%+ of the Global Passenger EV Market</b></p>\n<p>At its current average selling price (ASP) of ~$51k, Tesla’s stock price of ~1,200/share implies the firm will sell 16 million vehicles in 2030 (versus ~800k TTM), or 60% of the&nbsp;projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market&nbsp;in 2030. For reference, Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst with a price target of $1,600/share, projects Tesla will sell&nbsp;8.1 million vehicles&nbsp;in 2030.</p>\n<p>I think it is unlikely that Tesla will sell such a high volume of vehicles at a $51k ASP, yet the implied vehicle sales based on lower ASPs look even more impractical.</p>\n<p>As detailed in the next section, this analysis assumes Tesla achieves profit margins twice as high as Toyota (TM) and quadruples its current auto manufacturing efficiency. In other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price.</p>\n<p>Per Figure 3, Tesla’s current valuation implies that, in 2030, it will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>16 million vehicles – current ASP of $51k</li>\n <li>21 million vehicles – ASP of $38k (average new car price in the U.S. in 2020)</li>\n <li>46 million vehicles – ASP of $17k (equal to General Motors over the TTM)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 25.8 million in 2030, the&nbsp;base case projection from the IEA):</p>\n<ul>\n <li>60% for 16 million vehicles</li>\n <li>80% for 21 million vehicles</li>\n <li>179% for 46 million vehicles</li>\n</ul>\n<p>If I assume the&nbsp;IEA’s best case&nbsp;for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 46.8 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>33% for 16 million vehicles</li>\n <li>44% for 21 million vehicles</li>\n <li>98% for 46 million vehicles</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Figure 3:&nbsp;Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify Current Valuation</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6d6230910209d16f55e6e527130d43\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The Math Shows that Tesla Must be More Profitable Than Apple</b></p>\n<p>Here are the assumptions I use in my&nbsp;reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model&nbsp;to calculate the implied production levels above.</p>\n<p>To justify its current price of ~$1,200/share, Tesla must:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>immediately achieve a 17.2% NOPAT margin (double Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers I cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and</li>\n <li>grow revenue by 38% compounded annually for the next decade.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In this&nbsp;scenario, Tesla generates&nbsp;<b>$783 billion</b>&nbsp;in revenue in 2030, which is 102% of the combined revenues of Toyota, General Motors, Ford (F), Honda Motor Corp (HMC), and Stellantis (STLA) over the TTM.</p>\n<p>This scenario also implies Tesla generates $135 billion in net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) in 2030, or 45% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $93 billion, is the highest of all&nbsp;companies my firm covers.</p>\n<p><b>TSLA Has 60%+ Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales</b></p>\n<p>If I assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $38k, the stock is worth just $483/share. Details:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>NOPAT margin improves to 17.2% and</li>\n <li>revenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then</li>\n</ul>\n<p>the stock is worth just $483/share today – 60% downside to the current price.&nbsp;See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $60 billion, or nearly 17x its TTM NOPAT, and just 3% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) TTM NOPAT.</p>\n<p><b>TSLA Has 88%+ Downside Even with 28% Market Share and Realistic Margins</b></p>\n<p>If I estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $148/share. Here’s the math:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>NOPAT margin improves to 8.5% (equal to General Motors’ TTM margin, compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and</li>\n <li>revenue grows by consensus estimates from 2021-2023 and</li>\n <li>revenue grows 18% a year from 2024-2030, then</li>\n</ul>\n<p>the stock is worth just $148/share today – an 88% downside to the current price.</p>\n<p>In this&nbsp;scenario, Tesla sells 7.2 million cars (at an ASP of 38k) and owns 28% of the global passenger EV market in 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $148/share.</p>\n<p>Also, for this scenario, I assume a much more realistic NOPAT margin, 8.5%, for Tesla. Given the expansion required of the business, struggles to be profitable to date, and formidable competition, I think Tesla will be lucky to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 8.5% from 2021-2030.</p>\n<p>Figure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied by its current stock price, the 8.1 million vehicle sales scenario, and the 7.2 million vehicle sales scenario to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, I show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25d334530f3477d58879490d628fa8ef\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"463\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Each of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s&nbsp;invested capital&nbsp;grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 53% compounded annually from 2010-2020 and 29% compounded annually from 2015-2020. Invested capital at the end of 3Q21 grew 21% YoY. Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment has grown even faster, at 58% compounded annually, since 2010.</p>\n<p>A 14% CAGR represents 1/4th&nbsp;the CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2010 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 4x more efficiently than it has so far.</p>\n<p>In other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Why Tesla’s $1 Trillion Valuation Is Ridiculous</b></p>\n<p>Now that I’ve shown how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation are, I’ll present some of the many challenges Tesla faces to meet those expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Tesla Remains “Just” a Car Company, Despite Bulls’ Arguments Otherwise.</b>One of the most common arguments bulls make to justify Tesla’s valuation is that the company is more than just a car company. Instead, the argument goes: Tesla is a software, tech, insurance, energy, transportation, “insert any other blank” company. However, the financials bear out a different picture and show the other businesses are more hype than substance. At this point, Tesla is a only car company and generates the entirety of its profits from vehicles.</p>\n<p>Per Figure 5, Tesla generated 88% of revenue from Automotive Sales in 3Q21, which is up from 87% in 3Q20, and above the quarterly average of 86% since 3Q19. For reference, automotive sales made up 87% and 93% of General Motors’ and Ford’s 3Q21 revenue respectively.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 5:&nbsp;Tesla’s Revenue Breakdown: 3Q19 – 3Q21</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b77f52dfd7a9cb05f19a91ac8811919\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"419\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla’s two other segments, Energy generation and storage and Services and other, which make up 12% of revenue in 3Q21, are unprofitable. Over the TTM, Tesla generated $10.8 billion in gross profit. $11.2 billion came from its Automotive segment while Energy generation and storage and Services and other racked up gross losses of $113 million and $263 million. Despite many claims and promises to the contrary over the years, Tesla doesn’t generate gross profit doing anything but selling cars.</p>\n<p><b>Insurance Business Is Not Material.</b>&nbsp;Tesla bulls will also point to Tesla’s insurance business as another way to drive profit growth. I’ve&nbsp;previously covered&nbsp;how Tesla insurance does not have the competitive advantages that bulls ascribe to it and has a long way to go before it can get meaningfully off the ground.</p>\n<p>Even if Tesla’s insurance business gets off the ground, I would not expect it to make much money. For example, from 2004-2006, General Motors generated about $70 per car sold in GAAP net income from its insurance business. If I assume Tesla can generate the same level of business, Tesla insurance would result in just $57 million in GAAP net income based on TTM vehicles sold.</p>\n<p>Bulls will counter that Tesla will be so much better at insurance than GM and that GM is not a good comp. There is no way to know for sure. Nevertheless, I concede that anything is possible, but the likelihood of Tesla’s insurance business being material profit producer is extremely low.</p>\n<p>Regardless of how successful Tesla insurance is, the potential profits from it are nowhere near enough to help to justify the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price.</p>\n<p><b>Production Capacity Growth Will Require Billions of $.</b>Current and expected production capacities of all known Tesla factories equals ~2.7 million vehicles, or 12.9 million short of the 2030 production implied by its stock price. See Figure 6.</p>\n<p>In other words, despite the new factories coming online, Tesla must spend billions and build many new manufacturing plants before it can approach the capacity needed to sell the number of cars implied by its valuation.</p>\n<p>Given the&nbsp;many issues&nbsp;in ramping production in the past, investors should not assume Tesla can increase its production by 5x without any problems.</p>\n<p><b>Figure 6:&nbsp;Tesla’s Pending Production Shortfall</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d0c946fecb2fd037adac367c7c5b7c2\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">*Projection based on&nbsp;InsideEVs estimate&nbsp;of 600,000 vehicles per year</p>\n<p>**Optimistic assumption based on Texas being Tesla’s biggest factory and&nbsp;possibly the largest factory&nbsp;in the United States</p>\n<p><b>Incumbents Must Fail for Tesla to Meet Growth Expectations.</b>For many years now, incumbent automakers have spent billions of dollars building out their EV offerings. Automakers other than Tesla already account for 85% of&nbsp;global EV sales&nbsp;through the first half of 2021.</p>\n<p>The global EV market is simply not big enough for Tesla to achieve the sales expectations in its valuation unless nearly all of the incumbents reverse course and completely fail to sell EVs.</p>\n<p>Here are the projections from the large incumbent automakers that have provided specific goals for future EV production.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Volkswagen Group projects that&nbsp;50% of its global sales&nbsp;will be fully electric by 2030</li>\n <li>Stellantis projects&nbsp;70%&nbsp;and&nbsp;40%&nbsp;of its European and North American sales, respectively, will be fully electric by 2030</li>\n <li>Ford&nbsp;projects&nbsp;that 40% of its sales will be fully electric by 2030.</li>\n <li>Toyota&nbsp;projects&nbsp;that it will sell 2 million EVs by 2030</li>\n <li>Honda&nbsp;plans&nbsp;to sell only EVs in China by 2030</li>\n <li>BMW&nbsp;expects&nbsp;at least half its sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030</li>\n <li>Daimler, manufacturer of Mercedes Benz,&nbsp;expects&nbsp;half its sales to be “EV and hybrid by 2025”</li>\n <li>General Motors is&nbsp;targeting&nbsp;EV sales of “more than 1 million” by 2025</li>\n <li>Volvo&nbsp;plans&nbsp;to sell only fully electric vehicles by 2030</li>\n <li>Nissan&nbsp;projects&nbsp;40% of U.S. sales to be EVs by 2030</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Based on these projections, I estimate how many EVs each company aims to produce[1]&nbsp;by 2030 and the market share implied by that production as a percentage of&nbsp;base-case global passenger EV sales in 2030.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Volkswagen Group: 5.5 million, 21% market share</li>\n <li>Stellantis: 3.6 million[2], 14% market share</li>\n <li>Ford: 2.2 million, 9% market share</li>\n <li>Toyota: 2 million, 8% market share</li>\n <li>Honda (in China): 1.5 million, 6% market share</li>\n <li>BMW: 1.3 million, 5% market share</li>\n <li>Mercedes Benz: 1.2+ million, 5% market share</li>\n <li>General Motors: 1+ million, 4% market share</li>\n <li>Volvo: 700,000, 3% market share</li>\n <li>Nissan (in U.S.): 500,000, 2% market share</li>\n <li><b>Total = 19+ million vehicles and 75% market share</b></li>\n</ul>\n<p>These estimates do not include other incumbents and new entrants (e.g. Jaguar Land Rover, NIO Inc. [NIO], Rivian [RIVN], Ludic [LCID] and more) or other Chinese EV makers because I could not find specific projections for EV production. Nevertheless, I am confident that their combined market share will be more than zero.</p>\n<p>The point is that the rest of the world is not planning to stand by, give up existing market share, and let Tesla own majority of the EV market. Many very experienced and successful automakers are spending many multiples of what Tesla is spending to compete in the EV market.</p>\n<p>The bottom line is that it is hard to make a straight-faced argument that Tesla can achieve the sales implied by its valuation in a competitive market.</p>\n<p><b>Incumbents Can Afford to Spend More than Tesla.</b>Incumbents already have infrastructure to produce and sell vehicles at scale, and they are spending billions of dollars to compete in the EV market. Ford, Volkswagen, General Motors, and Stellantis alone are planning to spend at least $280 billion through 2025 and produce over 12 million EVs by 2030.</p>\n<p>Given the huge investments from multiple competitors, I expect the EV market will be extremely competitive, as manufacturers fight for profits and market share. The “winner take all” outcome implied by Tesla’s valuation is extremely unlikely. Perhaps, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi&nbsp;said it best, “the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and I believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time, as has been the case historically.\" In such a market, Tesla cannot achieve the market share implied by its valuation.</p>\n<p>Unlike Tesla, the incumbents generate plenty of free cash flow (FCF) to fund their EV investments and don’t have to dilute existing shareholders to expand EV capacity as Tesla does. For instance, over the last five years, General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford generated a cumulative $12.4 billion, $7.1, and $6.1 billion in free cash flow while Tesla burned -$19.5 billion.</p>\n<p><b>FSD Continues to Overpromise And Underdeliver.</b>Full-self driving (FSD) has been consistently plagued by issues that, unfortunately, have deadly consequences. Industry research provider Guidehouse Insights ranks Tesla last in its&nbsp;2021 ranking&nbsp;of Automated Driver Systems (ADS), and states flatly, “Tesla needs a thorough rethink of its approach to developing ADS. It has overpromised with its marketing for nearly 5 years and severely underdelivered.”</p>\n<p>Per Figure 7, Tesla lags the competition by quite a large margin, as it’s the only company that falls into the \"Followers\" category.</p>\n<p>The most recent problems with Tesla’s FSD version 10.3 forced the company to&nbsp;roll back the update&nbsp;as users reported false crash warnings and other problems with autosteer and cruise control. These issues resulted in Tesla recalling nearly 12,000 vehicles because “a communication error may cause a false forward-collision warning or unexpected activation of the emergency brakes,”&nbsp;according&nbsp;to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).</p>\n<p>While the roll out of an updated 10.3.1 has restarted, Tesla’s haphazard approach to deploying FSD remains unsettling and led Guidehouse Insights to&nbsp;note, “Tesla’s approach to testing its system is fundamentally at odds with virtually every other company in this industry.”</p>\n<p><b>Figure 7:&nbsp;Tesla Ranks Last Amongst Automated Driver Systems</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ddd92d3ed67347fa0741599f91ce31d\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"739\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Alphabet’s Waymo&nbsp;routinely&nbsp;ranks as the best automated driving system. Importantly, many of the firms ranked ahead of Tesla are focused solely on building automated driving systems and are not distracted by scaling up automobile production, delivery logistics, and the general day-to-day operations of producing cars. Even so, other direct competitors such as GM Super Cruise also get&nbsp;better scores&nbsp;from&nbsp;third-party organizations.</p>\n<p><b>Increased Regulatory Risk.</b>While Tesla has mysteriously avoided regulatory crackdown on its sales of FSD and practice of beta testing software on live drivers and roads, renewed requests from the NHTSA/National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) signal that Tesla might be held accountable for practices that many find highly misleading and dangerous to citizens.</p>\n<p>Missy Cummings, recently&nbsp;appointed&nbsp;as senior advisor for safety at the NHTSA, has expressed concerns about Tesla’s FSD in the past, tweeting as far back as 2019 that Tesla’s “autopilot easily cause mode confusion, is unreliable and unsafe” and that “NHTSA should require Tesla turn it off.”</p>\n<p>More recently, Tesla requested “confidential business information treatment” on its responses to a litany of information requests the NHTSA made as part of its investigation into FSD. If approved, the public would likely never see Tesla’s responses to key questions pertaining to Tesla not issuing a recall for Autopilot after multiple accidents involving parked emergency vehicles, the selection criteria for Tesla’s FSD beta testing program, and the non-disclosure agreements Tesla was making drivers sign before they could use the beta system.</p>\n<p>The NHTSA is not alone in criticizing Tesla and its FSD rollout. On October 26, 2021, the head of the U.S. NTSB, Jennifer Homendy, said that Tesla has not yet officially responded to the NTSB regarding its safety recommendations while calling the use of full self-driving ”misleading.” She stated, “my biggest concern is that Tesla is rolling out full self-driving technology in beta on city streets with untrained drivers and they have not addressed our recommendations that we’ve issued as a result of numerous investigations of Tesla crashes.”</p>\n<p><b>Battery Technologies Are Nothing Special.</b>Tesla announced it will be switching to a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery in all standard range cars. These batteries are already being used in vehicles built in the Shanghai factory, and this switch is expected to bring down costs. The timing of this change comes as other battery producers, in partnership with incumbent auto manufacturers, are ramping up production, which should drive down battery costs for all EV makers. In other words, the competitive advantages of a cheaper battery may be short-lived, as incumbents build economies of scale in their own supply chain in the coming years.</p>\n<p>Additionally, while the much heralded 4680 cylindrical battery, produced by Panasonic for Tesla, and&nbsp;nearly ready for production, should bring a higher energy density in a more efficient package, competitors’ offerings all aim to provide the same.</p>\n<p>General Motor’s Ultium platform will enable up to 400-450 miles of range, and the firm is building a new battery research facility aimed at building batteries capable of 600 miles on a single charge. General Motors recently announced a joint venture with LG Chem to build a second U.S. battery cell plant, which is&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to have an annual capacity of 35 gigawatt hours, or slightly above the 30 gigawatt hour capacity of its first Lordstown battery plant. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas&nbsp;noted&nbsp;that the “formation of Ultium/Ultium Cells LLC will prove to be a critical point of strategic differentiation that will ultimately drive value creation for [GM] shareholders.”</p>\n<p>Ford’s Mustang Mach-E became the&nbsp;first electric SUV&nbsp;not made by Tesla to reach an EPA-rated range of up to 300 miles, and the company recently entered a partnership with SK Innovation to build three U.S.-based battery plants to power 1 million EVs annually.</p>\n<p>On its own, LG Chem plans to expand its existing U.S. facilities and build two more plants that will produce both pouch cells used by General Motors, Ford, Jaguar, Audi, Porsche, and more, as well as the cylindrical cells used by Tesla.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, the race for the “perfect” battery is less important than the race to procure battery supplies to build the number of EVs each manufacturer aims to produce in the coming years. The incumbents have proven they can maintain and win a race to procure supplies, and they’ve only been doing it for multiple decades now.</p>\n<p><b>Not All Supply Issues Can Be Coded Away.</b>To its credit, Tesla managed the global chip shortage relatively well by re-writing software to allow the use of alternative chips. However, not all supply issues can be solved via software, as evidenced by the growing wait times for Tesla’s vehicles. As Electrek&nbsp;notes, Tesla recently updated its delivery timelines for new orders, and depending upon specs, some vehicles won’t be delivered until September 2022 if ordered today. New orders for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which is Tesla’s cheapest vehicle, are currently on pace to be delivered in May 2022, or seven months from now.</p>\n<p>While certainly not unique to Tesla, extended delivery/wait times give consumers ample time to comparison shop and possibly switch orders to a competitor’s EV that would be available sooner.</p>\n<p>Delivery delays aren’t exclusive to in-production vehicles, but Tesla’s future vehicles as well. The much-hyped Cybertruck has recently been delayed again, this time until at least 2023 (compared to an original late 2021 release), which ultimately gives competitors more time to establish a presence in the EV truck market. I recently outlined the many competitors in the EV truck market in my&nbsp;report on Rivian.</p>\n<p><b>Putting It All Together: Tesla Provides Poor Risk/Reward</b></p>\n<p>Given the challenges ahead for Tesla, coupled with a valuation that implies it will take 60%+ of the global EV market share, I think it is clear: Tesla’s stock offers poor risk/reward.</p>\n<p>Tesla has proven risky to short, but investors need not buy shares today at such an elevated price.</p>\n<p>If you’re buying Tesla at its current valuation, you’re not only betting that it will be the only winner of the electrification of the global automotive fleet, but that it will somehow be twice as profitable as Toyota and achieve at least 60% market share. With anything less than total market domination, TSLA presents large downside risk.</p>","source":"fors","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: $1 Trillion Of Speculation\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-12 22:10 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/11/09/tesla-1-trillion-of-speculation/?sh=34ca1f2f77eb><strong>Forbes</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz (HTZ), which might not even ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/11/09/tesla-1-trillion-of-speculation/?sh=34ca1f2f77eb\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2021/11/09/tesla-1-trillion-of-speculation/?sh=34ca1f2f77eb","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163118124","content_text":"Tesla’s (TSLA) market cap surpassed the trillion-dollar mark, driven by a post-earnings rally that got a boost from the announcement of a 100,000-vehicle order from Hertz (HTZ), which might not even happen.\nEven if it does come to pass, the Hertz order is a drop in the bucket of growth expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation. Tesla needs 155 Hertz-sized orders to justify the revenue expectations in its stock price. Put another way, the $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 60%+ of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple (AAPL) by 2030.\nThis report provides objective perspective on how outrageously high the valuation of Tesla stock is and the clear impracticality of the company meeting the expectations baked into its valuation.\nTesla’s Valuation vs. Competitors Makes No Sense\nTesla’s market cap is now greater than the next 10 largest (ranked by market cap) auto manufacturers combined.\nFigure 1: Tesla’s Market Cap Vs. Competitors\n\nThis valuation comes despite Tesla selling less than 1/50th of the vehicles than the combined total sold by the next 10 largest automakers over the trailing twelve months ended the first half of 2021. See Figure 2.\nI cannot conceive of a straight-faced argument for the disconnect between Tesla’s valuation and its vehicle sales compared to its competitors.\nFigure 2: Tesla’s Car Sales Vs. Competitors\n* Stellantis sales estimated as Fiat Chrysler and PSA Group’s 2H20 sales and Stellantis’ 1H21 sales. Stellantis was formed as a merger between the two in January 2021.\nIs the Hertz Deal Really Worth $100 Billion+ in Market Cap?\nEven if Hertz eventually agrees to buy 100,000 Tesla Model 3s, I do not think it is worth the $100 billion in market cap, or $1 million per vehicle, that we saw investors give Tesla’s market cap after the Hertz deal made headlines. Even Elon Musk questioned the surge in share price, noting that the price movement was “strange” given that Tesla is “very much a production ramp problem, not a demand problem.”\nThis $100 billion market cap jump makes even less sense in the context of Tesla’s sky-high valuation before the announcement. Clearly, the feasibility of Tesla meeting the sales expectations embedded in its market cap plays no role in its valuation. For those that do care about expectations investing, I did the math and Tesla needs to successfully deliver on 155 Hertz-sized deals to meet the sales implied by a $1.2 trillion market cap.\nWill the Hertz Deal Result in Any Profits – If It Goes Through?\nAfter Elon Musk tweeted on November 1, 2021 that “no contract has been signed yet”, the Hertz deal reminds me of another famous tweet: \"am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.”\nEven if the deal does go through, the pricing terms are very unclear. Elon insists that no cars will be sold at a discount. Meanwhile, Hertz CEO Mark Fields has made it clear that he is playing the field and working on getting cars from all EV manufacturers on his lot.\nEither Tesla is selling cars at a (large or small) discount, the deal terms are wrong, or the deal does not get done. If the deal gets done, I do not expect it to be profitable. Rental car companies are accustomed to getting discounts for bulk orders, and I see no reason for Hertz to expect to pay list prices on a deal for so many cars.\nAt the end of the day, I’m not sure pricing matters because I don't think the Hertz deal gets done. This affair is more about headlines and fueling speculation than doing any real business.\nTesla’s Global Market Share Getting Smaller\nTesla’s first-mover is already eroding, and its market share continues to decline. In the first half of 2021, Tesla sold 14.6% of the EVs sold worldwide compared to 18.8% over the same period in 2020.\nRising volumes, and falling market share are to be expected in a nascent industry. The problem is that Tesla’s isn’t priced for declining market share. It is priced for massive market share gains, unheard of gains in nearly any industry across the globe, especially in an industry as large and competitive as passenger vehicles.\nReverse DCF Math: Valuation Implies Tesla Will Own 60%+ of the Global Passenger EV Market\nAt its current average selling price (ASP) of ~$51k, Tesla’s stock price of ~1,200/share implies the firm will sell 16 million vehicles in 2030 (versus ~800k TTM), or 60% of the projected base case global EV passenger vehicle market in 2030. For reference, Adam Jonas, a Morgan Stanley analyst with a price target of $1,600/share, projects Tesla will sell 8.1 million vehicles in 2030.\nI think it is unlikely that Tesla will sell such a high volume of vehicles at a $51k ASP, yet the implied vehicle sales based on lower ASPs look even more impractical.\nAs detailed in the next section, this analysis assumes Tesla achieves profit margins twice as high as Toyota (TM) and quadruples its current auto manufacturing efficiency. In other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations reflected in Tesla’s stock price.\nPer Figure 3, Tesla’s current valuation implies that, in 2030, it will sell the following number of vehicles based on these ASP benchmarks:\n\n16 million vehicles – current ASP of $51k\n21 million vehicles – ASP of $38k (average new car price in the U.S. in 2020)\n46 million vehicles – ASP of $17k (equal to General Motors over the TTM)\n\nIf Tesla achieves those EV sales, the implied market share for the company would be the following (assuming global passenger EV sales reach 25.8 million in 2030, the base case projection from the IEA):\n\n60% for 16 million vehicles\n80% for 21 million vehicles\n179% for 46 million vehicles\n\nIf I assume the IEA’s best case for global passenger EV sales in 2030, 46.8 million vehicles, the above vehicle sales represent:\n\n33% for 16 million vehicles\n44% for 21 million vehicles\n98% for 46 million vehicles\n\nFigure 3: Tesla’s Implied Vehicle Sales in 2030 to Justify Current Valuation\nThe Math Shows that Tesla Must be More Profitable Than Apple\nHere are the assumptions I use in my reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) model to calculate the implied production levels above.\nTo justify its current price of ~$1,200/share, Tesla must:\n\nimmediately achieve a 17.2% NOPAT margin (double Toyota’s margin, which is the highest of the large-scale automakers I cover), compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and\ngrow revenue by 38% compounded annually for the next decade.\n\nIn this scenario, Tesla generates $783 billion in revenue in 2030, which is 102% of the combined revenues of Toyota, General Motors, Ford (F), Honda Motor Corp (HMC), and Stellantis (STLA) over the TTM.\nThis scenario also implies Tesla generates $135 billion in net operating profit after-tax (NOPAT) in 2030, or 45% higher than Apple’s (AAPL) TTM NOPAT, which, at $93 billion, is the highest of all companies my firm covers.\nTSLA Has 60%+ Downside If Morgan Stanley Is Right About Sales\nIf I assume Tesla reaches Morgan Stanley’s estimate of selling 8.1 million cars in 2030 (which implies a 31% share of the global passenger EV market in 2030), at an ASP of $38k, the stock is worth just $483/share. Details:\n\nNOPAT margin improves to 17.2% and\nrevenue grows 27% compounded annually over the next decade, then\n\nthe stock is worth just $483/share today – 60% downside to the current price. See the math behind this reverse DCF scenario. In this scenario, Tesla grows NOPAT to $60 billion, or nearly 17x its TTM NOPAT, and just 3% below Alphabet’s (GOOGL) TTM NOPAT.\nTSLA Has 88%+ Downside Even with 28% Market Share and Realistic Margins\nIf I estimate more reasonable (but still very optimistic) margins and market share achievements for Tesla, the stock is worth just $148/share. Here’s the math:\n\nNOPAT margin improves to 8.5% (equal to General Motors’ TTM margin, compared to Tesla’s TTM margin of 7.7%) and\nrevenue grows by consensus estimates from 2021-2023 and\nrevenue grows 18% a year from 2024-2030, then\n\nthe stock is worth just $148/share today – an 88% downside to the current price.\nIn this scenario, Tesla sells 7.2 million cars (at an ASP of 38k) and owns 28% of the global passenger EV market in 2030. If Tesla fails to meet these expectations, then the stock is worth less than $148/share.\nAlso, for this scenario, I assume a much more realistic NOPAT margin, 8.5%, for Tesla. Given the expansion required of the business, struggles to be profitable to date, and formidable competition, I think Tesla will be lucky to achieve and sustain a margin as high as 8.5% from 2021-2030.\nFigure 4 compares the firm’s historical NOPAT to the NOPAT implied by its current stock price, the 8.1 million vehicle sales scenario, and the 7.2 million vehicle sales scenario to illustrate just how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price remain. For additional context, I show Toyota’s, General Motors’, and Apple’s TTM NOPAT.\nFigure 4: Tesla’s Historical and Implied NOPAT: DCF Valuation Scenarios\n\nEach of the above scenarios assumes Tesla’s invested capital grows 14% compounded annually through 2030. For reference, Tesla’s invested capital grew 53% compounded annually from 2010-2020 and 29% compounded annually from 2015-2020. Invested capital at the end of 3Q21 grew 21% YoY. Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment has grown even faster, at 58% compounded annually, since 2010.\nA 14% CAGR represents 1/4th the CAGR of Tesla’s property, plant, and equipment since 2010 and assumes the company can build future plants and produce cars 4x more efficiently than it has so far.\nIn other words, I aim to provide inarguably best-case scenarios for assessing the expectations for future market share and profits reflected in Tesla’s stock market valuation.\nWhy Tesla’s $1 Trillion Valuation Is Ridiculous\nNow that I’ve shown how high the expectations baked into Tesla’s valuation are, I’ll present some of the many challenges Tesla faces to meet those expectations.\nTesla Remains “Just” a Car Company, Despite Bulls’ Arguments Otherwise.One of the most common arguments bulls make to justify Tesla’s valuation is that the company is more than just a car company. Instead, the argument goes: Tesla is a software, tech, insurance, energy, transportation, “insert any other blank” company. However, the financials bear out a different picture and show the other businesses are more hype than substance. At this point, Tesla is a only car company and generates the entirety of its profits from vehicles.\nPer Figure 5, Tesla generated 88% of revenue from Automotive Sales in 3Q21, which is up from 87% in 3Q20, and above the quarterly average of 86% since 3Q19. For reference, automotive sales made up 87% and 93% of General Motors’ and Ford’s 3Q21 revenue respectively.\nFigure 5: Tesla’s Revenue Breakdown: 3Q19 – 3Q21\nTesla’s two other segments, Energy generation and storage and Services and other, which make up 12% of revenue in 3Q21, are unprofitable. Over the TTM, Tesla generated $10.8 billion in gross profit. $11.2 billion came from its Automotive segment while Energy generation and storage and Services and other racked up gross losses of $113 million and $263 million. Despite many claims and promises to the contrary over the years, Tesla doesn’t generate gross profit doing anything but selling cars.\nInsurance Business Is Not Material. Tesla bulls will also point to Tesla’s insurance business as another way to drive profit growth. I’ve previously covered how Tesla insurance does not have the competitive advantages that bulls ascribe to it and has a long way to go before it can get meaningfully off the ground.\nEven if Tesla’s insurance business gets off the ground, I would not expect it to make much money. For example, from 2004-2006, General Motors generated about $70 per car sold in GAAP net income from its insurance business. If I assume Tesla can generate the same level of business, Tesla insurance would result in just $57 million in GAAP net income based on TTM vehicles sold.\nBulls will counter that Tesla will be so much better at insurance than GM and that GM is not a good comp. There is no way to know for sure. Nevertheless, I concede that anything is possible, but the likelihood of Tesla’s insurance business being material profit producer is extremely low.\nRegardless of how successful Tesla insurance is, the potential profits from it are nowhere near enough to help to justify the expectations baked into Tesla’s stock price.\nProduction Capacity Growth Will Require Billions of $.Current and expected production capacities of all known Tesla factories equals ~2.7 million vehicles, or 12.9 million short of the 2030 production implied by its stock price. See Figure 6.\nIn other words, despite the new factories coming online, Tesla must spend billions and build many new manufacturing plants before it can approach the capacity needed to sell the number of cars implied by its valuation.\nGiven the many issues in ramping production in the past, investors should not assume Tesla can increase its production by 5x without any problems.\nFigure 6: Tesla’s Pending Production Shortfall\n*Projection based on InsideEVs estimate of 600,000 vehicles per year\n**Optimistic assumption based on Texas being Tesla’s biggest factory and possibly the largest factory in the United States\nIncumbents Must Fail for Tesla to Meet Growth Expectations.For many years now, incumbent automakers have spent billions of dollars building out their EV offerings. Automakers other than Tesla already account for 85% of global EV sales through the first half of 2021.\nThe global EV market is simply not big enough for Tesla to achieve the sales expectations in its valuation unless nearly all of the incumbents reverse course and completely fail to sell EVs.\nHere are the projections from the large incumbent automakers that have provided specific goals for future EV production.\n\nVolkswagen Group projects that 50% of its global sales will be fully electric by 2030\nStellantis projects 70% and 40% of its European and North American sales, respectively, will be fully electric by 2030\nFord projects that 40% of its sales will be fully electric by 2030.\nToyota projects that it will sell 2 million EVs by 2030\nHonda plans to sell only EVs in China by 2030\nBMW expects at least half its sales to be zero-emission vehicles by 2030\nDaimler, manufacturer of Mercedes Benz, expects half its sales to be “EV and hybrid by 2025”\nGeneral Motors is targeting EV sales of “more than 1 million” by 2025\nVolvo plans to sell only fully electric vehicles by 2030\nNissan projects 40% of U.S. sales to be EVs by 2030\n\nBased on these projections, I estimate how many EVs each company aims to produce[1] by 2030 and the market share implied by that production as a percentage of base-case global passenger EV sales in 2030.\n\nVolkswagen Group: 5.5 million, 21% market share\nStellantis: 3.6 million[2], 14% market share\nFord: 2.2 million, 9% market share\nToyota: 2 million, 8% market share\nHonda (in China): 1.5 million, 6% market share\nBMW: 1.3 million, 5% market share\nMercedes Benz: 1.2+ million, 5% market share\nGeneral Motors: 1+ million, 4% market share\nVolvo: 700,000, 3% market share\nNissan (in U.S.): 500,000, 2% market share\nTotal = 19+ million vehicles and 75% market share\n\nThese estimates do not include other incumbents and new entrants (e.g. Jaguar Land Rover, NIO Inc. [NIO], Rivian [RIVN], Ludic [LCID] and more) or other Chinese EV makers because I could not find specific projections for EV production. Nevertheless, I am confident that their combined market share will be more than zero.\nThe point is that the rest of the world is not planning to stand by, give up existing market share, and let Tesla own majority of the EV market. Many very experienced and successful automakers are spending many multiples of what Tesla is spending to compete in the EV market.\nThe bottom line is that it is hard to make a straight-faced argument that Tesla can achieve the sales implied by its valuation in a competitive market.\nIncumbents Can Afford to Spend More than Tesla.Incumbents already have infrastructure to produce and sell vehicles at scale, and they are spending billions of dollars to compete in the EV market. Ford, Volkswagen, General Motors, and Stellantis alone are planning to spend at least $280 billion through 2025 and produce over 12 million EVs by 2030.\nGiven the huge investments from multiple competitors, I expect the EV market will be extremely competitive, as manufacturers fight for profits and market share. The “winner take all” outcome implied by Tesla’s valuation is extremely unlikely. Perhaps, Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said it best, “the automotive industry is an increasingly global and hypercompetitive industry and I believe that surplus profits and technology innovation will likely be competed away over time, as has been the case historically.\" In such a market, Tesla cannot achieve the market share implied by its valuation.\nUnlike Tesla, the incumbents generate plenty of free cash flow (FCF) to fund their EV investments and don’t have to dilute existing shareholders to expand EV capacity as Tesla does. For instance, over the last five years, General Motors, Stellantis, and Ford generated a cumulative $12.4 billion, $7.1, and $6.1 billion in free cash flow while Tesla burned -$19.5 billion.\nFSD Continues to Overpromise And Underdeliver.Full-self driving (FSD) has been consistently plagued by issues that, unfortunately, have deadly consequences. Industry research provider Guidehouse Insights ranks Tesla last in its 2021 ranking of Automated Driver Systems (ADS), and states flatly, “Tesla needs a thorough rethink of its approach to developing ADS. It has overpromised with its marketing for nearly 5 years and severely underdelivered.”\nPer Figure 7, Tesla lags the competition by quite a large margin, as it’s the only company that falls into the \"Followers\" category.\nThe most recent problems with Tesla’s FSD version 10.3 forced the company to roll back the update as users reported false crash warnings and other problems with autosteer and cruise control. These issues resulted in Tesla recalling nearly 12,000 vehicles because “a communication error may cause a false forward-collision warning or unexpected activation of the emergency brakes,” according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).\nWhile the roll out of an updated 10.3.1 has restarted, Tesla’s haphazard approach to deploying FSD remains unsettling and led Guidehouse Insights to note, “Tesla’s approach to testing its system is fundamentally at odds with virtually every other company in this industry.”\nFigure 7: Tesla Ranks Last Amongst Automated Driver Systems\n\nAlphabet’s Waymo routinely ranks as the best automated driving system. Importantly, many of the firms ranked ahead of Tesla are focused solely on building automated driving systems and are not distracted by scaling up automobile production, delivery logistics, and the general day-to-day operations of producing cars. Even so, other direct competitors such as GM Super Cruise also get better scores from third-party organizations.\nIncreased Regulatory Risk.While Tesla has mysteriously avoided regulatory crackdown on its sales of FSD and practice of beta testing software on live drivers and roads, renewed requests from the NHTSA/National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) signal that Tesla might be held accountable for practices that many find highly misleading and dangerous to citizens.\nMissy Cummings, recently appointed as senior advisor for safety at the NHTSA, has expressed concerns about Tesla’s FSD in the past, tweeting as far back as 2019 that Tesla’s “autopilot easily cause mode confusion, is unreliable and unsafe” and that “NHTSA should require Tesla turn it off.”\nMore recently, Tesla requested “confidential business information treatment” on its responses to a litany of information requests the NHTSA made as part of its investigation into FSD. If approved, the public would likely never see Tesla’s responses to key questions pertaining to Tesla not issuing a recall for Autopilot after multiple accidents involving parked emergency vehicles, the selection criteria for Tesla’s FSD beta testing program, and the non-disclosure agreements Tesla was making drivers sign before they could use the beta system.\nThe NHTSA is not alone in criticizing Tesla and its FSD rollout. On October 26, 2021, the head of the U.S. NTSB, Jennifer Homendy, said that Tesla has not yet officially responded to the NTSB regarding its safety recommendations while calling the use of full self-driving ”misleading.” She stated, “my biggest concern is that Tesla is rolling out full self-driving technology in beta on city streets with untrained drivers and they have not addressed our recommendations that we’ve issued as a result of numerous investigations of Tesla crashes.”\nBattery Technologies Are Nothing Special.Tesla announced it will be switching to a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery in all standard range cars. These batteries are already being used in vehicles built in the Shanghai factory, and this switch is expected to bring down costs. The timing of this change comes as other battery producers, in partnership with incumbent auto manufacturers, are ramping up production, which should drive down battery costs for all EV makers. In other words, the competitive advantages of a cheaper battery may be short-lived, as incumbents build economies of scale in their own supply chain in the coming years.\nAdditionally, while the much heralded 4680 cylindrical battery, produced by Panasonic for Tesla, and nearly ready for production, should bring a higher energy density in a more efficient package, competitors’ offerings all aim to provide the same.\nGeneral Motor’s Ultium platform will enable up to 400-450 miles of range, and the firm is building a new battery research facility aimed at building batteries capable of 600 miles on a single charge. General Motors recently announced a joint venture with LG Chem to build a second U.S. battery cell plant, which is expected to have an annual capacity of 35 gigawatt hours, or slightly above the 30 gigawatt hour capacity of its first Lordstown battery plant. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that the “formation of Ultium/Ultium Cells LLC will prove to be a critical point of strategic differentiation that will ultimately drive value creation for [GM] shareholders.”\nFord’s Mustang Mach-E became the first electric SUV not made by Tesla to reach an EPA-rated range of up to 300 miles, and the company recently entered a partnership with SK Innovation to build three U.S.-based battery plants to power 1 million EVs annually.\nOn its own, LG Chem plans to expand its existing U.S. facilities and build two more plants that will produce both pouch cells used by General Motors, Ford, Jaguar, Audi, Porsche, and more, as well as the cylindrical cells used by Tesla.\nUltimately, the race for the “perfect” battery is less important than the race to procure battery supplies to build the number of EVs each manufacturer aims to produce in the coming years. The incumbents have proven they can maintain and win a race to procure supplies, and they’ve only been doing it for multiple decades now.\nNot All Supply Issues Can Be Coded Away.To its credit, Tesla managed the global chip shortage relatively well by re-writing software to allow the use of alternative chips. However, not all supply issues can be solved via software, as evidenced by the growing wait times for Tesla’s vehicles. As Electrek notes, Tesla recently updated its delivery timelines for new orders, and depending upon specs, some vehicles won’t be delivered until September 2022 if ordered today. New orders for the Model 3 Standard Range Plus, which is Tesla’s cheapest vehicle, are currently on pace to be delivered in May 2022, or seven months from now.\nWhile certainly not unique to Tesla, extended delivery/wait times give consumers ample time to comparison shop and possibly switch orders to a competitor’s EV that would be available sooner.\nDelivery delays aren’t exclusive to in-production vehicles, but Tesla’s future vehicles as well. The much-hyped Cybertruck has recently been delayed again, this time until at least 2023 (compared to an original late 2021 release), which ultimately gives competitors more time to establish a presence in the EV truck market. I recently outlined the many competitors in the EV truck market in my report on Rivian.\nPutting It All Together: Tesla Provides Poor Risk/Reward\nGiven the challenges ahead for Tesla, coupled with a valuation that implies it will take 60%+ of the global EV market share, I think it is clear: Tesla’s stock offers poor risk/reward.\nTesla has proven risky to short, but investors need not buy shares today at such an elevated price.\nIf you’re buying Tesla at its current valuation, you’re not only betting that it will be the only winner of the electrification of the global automotive fleet, but that it will somehow be twice as profitable as Toyota and achieve at least 60% market share. With anything less than total market domination, TSLA presents large downside risk.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879484082,"gmtCreate":1636764017553,"gmtModify":1636769305262,"author":{"id":"4099321825774310","authorId":"4099321825774310","name":"yewknowwho","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099321825774310","authorIdStr":"4099321825774310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879484082","repostId":"870635544","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":870635544,"gmtCreate":1636609246485,"gmtModify":1636617329814,"author":{"id":"3527667591235607","authorId":"3527667591235607","name":"OptionPlus","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8009c23927adcf8b5e1e1d101178392","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667591235607","authorIdStr":"3527667591235607"},"themes":[],"title":"Tesla plunged 12%. How to use options now?","htmlText":"The weekend review&nbsp;mentioned that Tesla Motors's U-turn can happen every minute, and even if Musk doesn't want to sell stocks, there will be other news stimulation. Facts have proved that there is no stock that only rises but does not fall. The more brave it is when it rises, the more exciting it is when it falls. Tesla Motors is like this, and NVIDIA Corp will have it. Don't worry. I don't hold Tesla Motors right now, my Tesla Motors at 900 and 1000 were sent out by me through sell covered call. If you still hold Tesla Motors's shares, it is best to do some protection in the U-turn market, so&nbsp;how do&nbsp;you do protection through options? You can make a Collar option&nbsp;strategy, or sell covered call directly to make a profit-stopping strategy to earn some premium. Selling cov","listText":"The weekend review&nbsp;mentioned that Tesla Motors's U-turn can happen every minute, and even if Musk doesn't want to sell stocks, there will be other news stimulation. Facts have proved that there is no stock that only rises but does not fall. The more brave it is when it rises, the more exciting it is when it falls. Tesla Motors is like this, and NVIDIA Corp will have it. Don't worry. I don't hold Tesla Motors right now, my Tesla Motors at 900 and 1000 were sent out by me through sell covered call. If you still hold Tesla Motors's shares, it is best to do some protection in the U-turn market, so&nbsp;how do&nbsp;you do protection through options? You can make a Collar option&nbsp;strategy, or sell covered call directly to make a profit-stopping strategy to earn some premium. Selling cov","text":"The weekend review mentioned that Tesla Motors's U-turn can happen every minute, and even if Musk doesn't want to sell stocks, there will be other news stimulation. Facts have proved that there is no stock that only rises but does not fall. The more brave it is when it rises, the more exciting it is when it falls. Tesla Motors is like this, and NVIDIA Corp will have it. Don't worry. I don't hold Tesla Motors right now, my Tesla Motors at 900 and 1000 were sent out by me through sell covered call. If you still hold Tesla Motors's shares, it is best to do some protection in the U-turn market, so how do you do protection through options? You can make a Collar option strategy, or sell covered call directly to make a profit-stopping strategy to earn some premium. Selling cov","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd2ba0987a51c269069820c59ef7e194","width":"1125","height":"2188"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d4517e8e2fc1b42438537f8764ff718","width":"1468","height":"1198"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ccca28a2263d883d028815d6cedf9fd","width":"1394","height":"744"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870635544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":86,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}