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Burner9073

Burner9073

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2022-04-28

$TENCENT(00700)$The COVID in China is taking the stock down.

2021-10-26

I hope the deal with $Xilinx(XLNX)$will be alright.

AMD: Brace For Impact<blockquote>AMD：做好应对冲击的准备</blockquote>

2021-10-20

“Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, fell 66% after the company's antiviral pill, being developed with Roche , failed to help patients with mild and moderate COVID-19.”Well. That’s too bad.

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2021-10-18

$Brookfield Renewable Corp.(BEPC)$Bought after several days of green candles. It will recover !

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>The COVID in China is taking the stock down.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>The COVID in China is taking the stock down.&nbsp;","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$The COVID in China is taking the stock down.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef639ff0895744a6d4ae496fdc63f06","width":"1284","height":"2778"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618585327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856749573,"gmtCreate":1635216440217,"gmtModify":1635216456624,"author":{"id":"4097234938088550","authorId":"4097234938088550","name":"Burner9073","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10ff2f388ee7420b6451e74742a0a8d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097234938088550","idStr":"4097234938088550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I hope the deal with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">$Xilinx(XLNX)$</a>will be alright.&nbsp;","listText":"I hope the deal with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">$Xilinx(XLNX)$</a>will be alright.&nbsp;","text":"I hope the deal with $Xilinx(XLNX)$will be alright.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856749573","repostId":"1181676309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181676309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635215793,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181676309?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-26 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Brace For Impact<blockquote>AMD：做好应对冲击的准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181676309","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.\nIts revenue for the period could come in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.</li>  <li>Its revenue for the period could come in around $4.2 billion.</li>  <li>The chipmaker's revenue growth momentum could remain at elevated levels in the near future at least.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD将于本周二公布第三季度业绩。</li><li>该公司在此期间的收入可能约为42亿美元。</li><li>该芯片制造商的收入增长势头至少在不久的将来可能会保持在较高水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings report after market close&nbsp;tomorrow. Investors would be curious to see if the chipmaker's revenue growth momentum remains at elevated levels or if it fizzles out due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages. But in addition to looking at its headline revenue figure, investors may also want to monitor changes in its average selling prices and shipment volume, track its segment financials and also listen in on its management's guidance for Q4. These items are likely going to have a bearing on where the stock heads next. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)定于明天收盘后公布第三季度财报。投资者很想知道这家芯片制造商的收入增长势头是否保持在较高水平，或者是否会因持续的半导体短缺而消失。但除了关注其总体收入数据外，投资者可能还希望监控其平均售价和出货量的变化，跟踪其部门财务状况，并听取其管理层对第四季度的指导。这些项目可能会对股票的下一步走势产生影响。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Operational Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营运表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Let me start by saying that AMD is facing mixed pricing and volume dynamics across its two largest product categories, that is GPUs and CPUs. For starters, the ongoing semiconductor shortages across the globe has driven up the selling prices for GPUs over the past one year, which benefits both AMD and Nvidia. Although there have been minor corrections in SKU prices from time to time, GPU prices have, overall, continuously risen up. On the other hand, the intensifying competition between Intel (INTC) and AMD has heated over the recent months and it's resulted in a contraction in prices for AMD's Zen 3-based CPUs. Here's a quick look at how prices have evolved for some of AMD's latest SKUs.</p><p><blockquote>首先让我说，AMD在其两个最大的产品类别（即GPU和CPU）中面临着混合的定价和销量动态。首先，过去一年全球持续的半导体短缺推高了GPU的售价，这对AMD和Nvidia都有利。尽管SKU价格不时出现小幅调整，但GPU价格总体上持续上涨。另一方面，近几个月来，英特尔(INTC)和AMD之间的竞争愈演愈烈，导致AMD基于Zen 3的CPU价格下降。以下是AMD一些最新SKU的价格变化情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68180febc1b82347855564769cd5b258\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Compiled by author using Amazon's prices over last 3 months</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用亚马逊过去3个月的价格编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker registered a rapid growth in average selling prices (or ASPs) in last two quarters, but its growth in volume shipments has decelerated over the said time frame. It would be interesting to see how these metrics evolve in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>该芯片制造商在过去两个季度的平均售价（或ASP）快速增长，但其出货量的增长在上述时间范围内有所放缓。看看这些指标在第三季度如何演变会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e1e1356220a1c822e02180e8f0e55a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are basically five scenarios that can play out here:</p><p><blockquote>这里基本上有五种情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Its ASP and volume shipment growth remains at elevated levels in Q3, highlighting strong competitive positioning and improving supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASP growth remains at elevated levels but its shipment growth stagnates, highlight strong competitive positioning but little to no improvement in its supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASPs shrink but its shipments growth accelerates, highlighting an erosion of pricing power due to intensifying market competition and an improvement in its supplies,</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume shrinks due to intensifying price wars and semiconductor shortages, resulting in a revenue degrowth. This would highlight an erosion of its pricing power and deteriorating supplies.</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume growth remains static, indicating little to no change in its supply situation or its competitive positioning.</li> </ol> Without actually knowing the actual pricing and volume mix for AMD across its various product generations and families, nobody can reliably forecast which of the above cases is going to be prevalent this time around and/or quantify the magnitude of its financial impact for the company as a whole. However, as far as guesstimates go, I contend that AMD's falling CPU prices will offset its rising GPU prices and result in flat ASPs on a sequential basis during Q3.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>第三季度其平均售价和出货量增长保持在较高水平，凸显了强大的竞争地位和供应状况的改善，</li><li>其平均售价增长仍处于较高水平，但出货量增长停滞，凸显了强大的竞争地位，但供应状况几乎没有改善，</li><li>其平均售价下降，但出货量增长加速，突显出由于市场竞争加剧和供应改善而导致定价权受到侵蚀，</li><li>由于价格战加剧和半导体短缺，其平均售价和出货量萎缩，导致收入下降。这将凸显其定价能力的削弱和供应的恶化。</li><li>其平均售价和出货量增长保持不变，表明其供应状况或竞争定位几乎没有变化。</li></ol>在不实际了解AMD各产品代和系列的实际定价和销量组合的情况下，没有人能够可靠地预测上述哪种情况这次会普遍存在和/或量化其对公司的财务影响程度作为一个整体。然而，就猜测而言，我认为AMD CPU价格的下降将抵消其GPU价格的上涨，并导致第三季度平均售价环比持平。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, its volume growth is likely to accelerate on the back of growing PC shipments. I say this because Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the company that actually manufactures AMD's CPU and GPU chips, shipped wafers in record quantities during Q3. AMD should ideally benefit from this increased supply, unless TSMC diverted it to other customers.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在PC出货量增长的背景下，其销量增长可能会加速。我这么说是因为实际制造AMD CPU和GPU芯片的台积电(TSM)在第三季度的晶圆出货量创历史新高。理想情况下，AMD应该会从供应增加中受益，除非台积电将其转移给其他客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08fb2c7e941e681152eb2edc98f1e427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, to summarize, keep an eye out on AMD's shipment and volume growth metrics. These items will highlight the state of its supply chain and how it's positioned against Intel and Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>因此，总而言之，请密切关注AMD的出货量和销量增长指标。这些项目将突出其供应链的状况以及其相对于英特尔和英伟达的定位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Assessing the Financial Impact</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评估财务影响</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, the work-from-home norms instated last year with the onset of COVID-19, had catapulted the demand for personal computing devices across the globe. Analysts were estimating this catalyst to wane off by Q4 2020 but it seems like they underestimated the pent-up demand. Latest data from Gartner and Canalys reveals that shipments for PCs, notebooks and workstations have risen between 6% to 17% on a year over year basis in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，去年新冠肺炎疫情爆发后制定的在家工作规范推动了全球对个人计算设备的需求。分析师预计这种催化剂将在2020年第四季度减弱，但他们似乎低估了被压抑的需求。Gartner和Canalys的最新数据显示，第三季度PC、笔记本电脑和工作站的出货量同比增长了6%至17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb9376f622dd40e0801ffa00b92a62eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, Gartner and Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Gartner和Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's needless to say but these industry tailwinds are likely going to boost AMD's sales in Q3. The bulk of these gains are going to reflect in the chipmaker's computing and graphics segment which includes the sales contribution from PC and notebook end-markets. So, I estimate that this segment will post a high-single digit (~7%) increase in revenue on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of roughly around $2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这些行业顺风可能会提振AMD第三季度的销售额。这些收益的大部分将反映在芯片制造商的计算和图形部门，其中包括PC和笔记本终端市场的销售贡献。因此，我估计该细分市场的收入将环比实现高个位数（约7%）增长，相当于收入数字约为24亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's Embedded, Enterprise and Semi-custom segment is experiencing a different set of tailwinds. Its gaming console partners (Sony and Microsoft) are experiencing breakneck consumer demand and it's likely that they'll be able to bridge the&nbsp;supply-demand gap&nbsp;only in 2022/2023. Besides, major data center companies continue to adopt AMD's EPYC server chips. So, altogether, the chipmaker's EESC segment seems well poised to post a yet another set of strong results in Q3. I contend that this segment will post a low-double-digit (~12%) revenue growth on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of around $1.79 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的嵌入式、企业和半定制领域正在经历一系列不同的顺风。其游戏机合作伙伴（索尼和微软）正在经历惊人的消费者需求，他们很可能要到2022/2023年才能弥合供需缺口。此外，主要数据中心公司继续采用AMD的EPYC服务器芯片。因此，总的来说，这家芯片制造商的EESC部门似乎准备在第三季度发布另一组强劲业绩。我认为，该细分市场的收入环比将实现两位数（约12%）的低增长，相当于收入数字约为17.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148d6340da64d16d5a72b8d88e47dca0\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, I estimate AMD's total Q3 revenue to be at $4.2 billion. This is coincidentally in-line with the Street's&nbsp;estimates&nbsp;that span from $3.98 billion to $4.21 billion for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我估计AMD第三季度总收入为42亿美元。巧合的是，这与华尔街对本季度39.8亿美元至42.1亿美元的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, investors should also watch AMD management's Q4 revenue guidance. Its larger rival, Intel, just posted a dismal Q3 earnings report and its management shifted blame on the ongoing chip shortages. It will be interesting to see if AMD's management sees an opportunity of growth here, on the back of Intel's woes, or if it also posts a dismal Q4 guidance due to the ongoing supply shortages. Analysts are forecasting AMD's Q4 revenue guidance to be between $4.05 billion and $4.58 billion, which translates to a record revenue high of $4.31 billion at the mid-point.</p><p><blockquote>最后，投资者还应关注AMD管理层的第四季度收入指引。其规模更大的竞争对手英特尔刚刚发布了一份惨淡的第三季度收益报告，其管理层将责任归咎于持续的芯片短缺。看看AMD管理层是否在英特尔陷入困境的背景下看到了增长机会，或者是否也因持续的供应短缺而发布了惨淡的第四季度指引，这将是一件有趣的事情。分析师预测AMD第四季度营收指引在40.5亿美元至45.8亿美元之间，这意味着中点营收达到创纪录的43.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investors Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> It seems like AMD's revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels for a couple of more quarters at least, thanks to industry tailwinds. Any market share gains over Intel, along the way, will further contribute to its rapid growth. So, overall, I remain bullish on AMD's prospects. Readers may want to keep a close eye on its segment financials, its ASP and shipment growth, and its management's revenue guidance when it reports its Q3 results. These items will highlight AMD's competitive positioning, changes in its supply situation and how well is the company capitalizing on growth catalysts. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>得益于行业利好，AMD的收入增长势头似乎至少将在未来几个季度内保持在较高水平。在此过程中，任何超过英特尔的市场份额增长都将进一步促进其快速增长。因此，总体而言，我仍然看好AMD的前景。读者可能希望在报告第三季度业绩时密切关注其部门财务状况、平均售价和出货量增长以及管理层的收入指引。这些项目将突出AMD的竞争定位、供应情况的变化以及该公司利用增长催化剂的情况。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Brace For Impact<blockquote>AMD：做好应对冲击的准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Brace For Impact<blockquote>AMD：做好应对冲击的准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-26 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.</li>  <li>Its revenue for the period could come in around $4.2 billion.</li>  <li>The chipmaker's revenue growth momentum could remain at elevated levels in the near future at least.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD将于本周二公布第三季度业绩。</li><li>该公司在此期间的收入可能约为42亿美元。</li><li>该芯片制造商的收入增长势头至少在不久的将来可能会保持在较高水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings report after market close&nbsp;tomorrow. Investors would be curious to see if the chipmaker's revenue growth momentum remains at elevated levels or if it fizzles out due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages. But in addition to looking at its headline revenue figure, investors may also want to monitor changes in its average selling prices and shipment volume, track its segment financials and also listen in on its management's guidance for Q4. These items are likely going to have a bearing on where the stock heads next. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)定于明天收盘后公布第三季度财报。投资者很想知道这家芯片制造商的收入增长势头是否保持在较高水平，或者是否会因持续的半导体短缺而消失。但除了关注其总体收入数据外，投资者可能还希望监控其平均售价和出货量的变化，跟踪其部门财务状况，并听取其管理层对第四季度的指导。这些项目可能会对股票的下一步走势产生影响。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Operational Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营运表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Let me start by saying that AMD is facing mixed pricing and volume dynamics across its two largest product categories, that is GPUs and CPUs. For starters, the ongoing semiconductor shortages across the globe has driven up the selling prices for GPUs over the past one year, which benefits both AMD and Nvidia. Although there have been minor corrections in SKU prices from time to time, GPU prices have, overall, continuously risen up. On the other hand, the intensifying competition between Intel (INTC) and AMD has heated over the recent months and it's resulted in a contraction in prices for AMD's Zen 3-based CPUs. Here's a quick look at how prices have evolved for some of AMD's latest SKUs.</p><p><blockquote>首先让我说，AMD在其两个最大的产品类别（即GPU和CPU）中面临着混合的定价和销量动态。首先，过去一年全球持续的半导体短缺推高了GPU的售价，这对AMD和Nvidia都有利。尽管SKU价格不时出现小幅调整，但GPU价格总体上持续上涨。另一方面，近几个月来，英特尔(INTC)和AMD之间的竞争愈演愈烈，导致AMD基于Zen 3的CPU价格下降。以下是AMD一些最新SKU的价格变化情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68180febc1b82347855564769cd5b258\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Compiled by author using Amazon's prices over last 3 months</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用亚马逊过去3个月的价格编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker registered a rapid growth in average selling prices (or ASPs) in last two quarters, but its growth in volume shipments has decelerated over the said time frame. It would be interesting to see how these metrics evolve in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>该芯片制造商在过去两个季度的平均售价（或ASP）快速增长，但其出货量的增长在上述时间范围内有所放缓。看看这些指标在第三季度如何演变会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e1e1356220a1c822e02180e8f0e55a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are basically five scenarios that can play out here:</p><p><blockquote>这里基本上有五种情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Its ASP and volume shipment growth remains at elevated levels in Q3, highlighting strong competitive positioning and improving supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASP growth remains at elevated levels but its shipment growth stagnates, highlight strong competitive positioning but little to no improvement in its supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASPs shrink but its shipments growth accelerates, highlighting an erosion of pricing power due to intensifying market competition and an improvement in its supplies,</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume shrinks due to intensifying price wars and semiconductor shortages, resulting in a revenue degrowth. This would highlight an erosion of its pricing power and deteriorating supplies.</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume growth remains static, indicating little to no change in its supply situation or its competitive positioning.</li> </ol> Without actually knowing the actual pricing and volume mix for AMD across its various product generations and families, nobody can reliably forecast which of the above cases is going to be prevalent this time around and/or quantify the magnitude of its financial impact for the company as a whole. However, as far as guesstimates go, I contend that AMD's falling CPU prices will offset its rising GPU prices and result in flat ASPs on a sequential basis during Q3.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>第三季度其平均售价和出货量增长保持在较高水平，凸显了强大的竞争地位和供应状况的改善，</li><li>其平均售价增长仍处于较高水平，但出货量增长停滞，凸显了强大的竞争地位，但供应状况几乎没有改善，</li><li>其平均售价下降，但出货量增长加速，突显出由于市场竞争加剧和供应改善而导致定价权受到侵蚀，</li><li>由于价格战加剧和半导体短缺，其平均售价和出货量萎缩，导致收入下降。这将凸显其定价能力的削弱和供应的恶化。</li><li>其平均售价和出货量增长保持不变，表明其供应状况或竞争定位几乎没有变化。</li></ol>在不实际了解AMD各产品代和系列的实际定价和销量组合的情况下，没有人能够可靠地预测上述哪种情况这次会普遍存在和/或量化其对公司的财务影响程度作为一个整体。然而，就猜测而言，我认为AMD CPU价格的下降将抵消其GPU价格的上涨，并导致第三季度平均售价环比持平。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, its volume growth is likely to accelerate on the back of growing PC shipments. I say this because Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the company that actually manufactures AMD's CPU and GPU chips, shipped wafers in record quantities during Q3. AMD should ideally benefit from this increased supply, unless TSMC diverted it to other customers.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在PC出货量增长的背景下，其销量增长可能会加速。我这么说是因为实际制造AMD CPU和GPU芯片的台积电(TSM)在第三季度的晶圆出货量创历史新高。理想情况下，AMD应该会从供应增加中受益，除非台积电将其转移给其他客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08fb2c7e941e681152eb2edc98f1e427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, to summarize, keep an eye out on AMD's shipment and volume growth metrics. These items will highlight the state of its supply chain and how it's positioned against Intel and Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>因此，总而言之，请密切关注AMD的出货量和销量增长指标。这些项目将突出其供应链的状况以及其相对于英特尔和英伟达的定位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Assessing the Financial Impact</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评估财务影响</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, the work-from-home norms instated last year with the onset of COVID-19, had catapulted the demand for personal computing devices across the globe. Analysts were estimating this catalyst to wane off by Q4 2020 but it seems like they underestimated the pent-up demand. Latest data from Gartner and Canalys reveals that shipments for PCs, notebooks and workstations have risen between 6% to 17% on a year over year basis in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，去年新冠肺炎疫情爆发后制定的在家工作规范推动了全球对个人计算设备的需求。分析师预计这种催化剂将在2020年第四季度减弱，但他们似乎低估了被压抑的需求。Gartner和Canalys的最新数据显示，第三季度PC、笔记本电脑和工作站的出货量同比增长了6%至17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb9376f622dd40e0801ffa00b92a62eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, Gartner and Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Gartner和Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's needless to say but these industry tailwinds are likely going to boost AMD's sales in Q3. The bulk of these gains are going to reflect in the chipmaker's computing and graphics segment which includes the sales contribution from PC and notebook end-markets. So, I estimate that this segment will post a high-single digit (~7%) increase in revenue on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of roughly around $2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这些行业顺风可能会提振AMD第三季度的销售额。这些收益的大部分将反映在芯片制造商的计算和图形部门，其中包括PC和笔记本终端市场的销售贡献。因此，我估计该细分市场的收入将环比实现高个位数（约7%）增长，相当于收入数字约为24亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's Embedded, Enterprise and Semi-custom segment is experiencing a different set of tailwinds. Its gaming console partners (Sony and Microsoft) are experiencing breakneck consumer demand and it's likely that they'll be able to bridge the&nbsp;supply-demand gap&nbsp;only in 2022/2023. Besides, major data center companies continue to adopt AMD's EPYC server chips. So, altogether, the chipmaker's EESC segment seems well poised to post a yet another set of strong results in Q3. I contend that this segment will post a low-double-digit (~12%) revenue growth on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of around $1.79 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的嵌入式、企业和半定制领域正在经历一系列不同的顺风。其游戏机合作伙伴（索尼和微软）正在经历惊人的消费者需求，他们很可能要到2022/2023年才能弥合供需缺口。此外，主要数据中心公司继续采用AMD的EPYC服务器芯片。因此，总的来说，这家芯片制造商的EESC部门似乎准备在第三季度发布另一组强劲业绩。我认为，该细分市场的收入环比将实现两位数（约12%）的低增长，相当于收入数字约为17.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148d6340da64d16d5a72b8d88e47dca0\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, I estimate AMD's total Q3 revenue to be at $4.2 billion. This is coincidentally in-line with the Street's&nbsp;estimates&nbsp;that span from $3.98 billion to $4.21 billion for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我估计AMD第三季度总收入为42亿美元。巧合的是，这与华尔街对本季度39.8亿美元至42.1亿美元的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, investors should also watch AMD management's Q4 revenue guidance. Its larger rival, Intel, just posted a dismal Q3 earnings report and its management shifted blame on the ongoing chip shortages. It will be interesting to see if AMD's management sees an opportunity of growth here, on the back of Intel's woes, or if it also posts a dismal Q4 guidance due to the ongoing supply shortages. Analysts are forecasting AMD's Q4 revenue guidance to be between $4.05 billion and $4.58 billion, which translates to a record revenue high of $4.31 billion at the mid-point.</p><p><blockquote>最后，投资者还应关注AMD管理层的第四季度收入指引。其规模更大的竞争对手英特尔刚刚发布了一份惨淡的第三季度收益报告，其管理层将责任归咎于持续的芯片短缺。看看AMD管理层是否在英特尔陷入困境的背景下看到了增长机会，或者是否也因持续的供应短缺而发布了惨淡的第四季度指引，这将是一件有趣的事情。分析师预测AMD第四季度营收指引在40.5亿美元至45.8亿美元之间，这意味着中点营收达到创纪录的43.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investors Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> It seems like AMD's revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels for a couple of more quarters at least, thanks to industry tailwinds. Any market share gains over Intel, along the way, will further contribute to its rapid growth. So, overall, I remain bullish on AMD's prospects. Readers may want to keep a close eye on its segment financials, its ASP and shipment growth, and its management's revenue guidance when it reports its Q3 results. These items will highlight AMD's competitive positioning, changes in its supply situation and how well is the company capitalizing on growth catalysts. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>得益于行业利好，AMD的收入增长势头似乎至少将在未来几个季度内保持在较高水平。在此过程中，任何超过英特尔的市场份额增长都将进一步促进其快速增长。因此，总体而言，我仍然看好AMD的前景。读者可能希望在报告第三季度业绩时密切关注其部门财务状况、平均售价和出货量增长以及管理层的收入指引。这些项目将突出AMD的竞争定位、供应情况的变化以及该公司利用增长催化剂的情况。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461826-amd-brace-for-impact\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461826-amd-brace-for-impact","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181676309","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.\nIts revenue for the period could come in around $4.2 billion.\nThe chipmaker's revenue growth momentum could remain at elevated levels in the near future at least.\n\n\nAMD (AMD) is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings report after market close tomorrow. Investors would be curious to see if the chipmaker's revenue growth momentum remains at elevated levels or if it fizzles out due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages. But in addition to looking at its headline revenue figure, investors may also want to monitor changes in its average selling prices and shipment volume, track its segment financials and also listen in on its management's guidance for Q4. These items are likely going to have a bearing on where the stock heads next. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nOperational Performance\nLet me start by saying that AMD is facing mixed pricing and volume dynamics across its two largest product categories, that is GPUs and CPUs. For starters, the ongoing semiconductor shortages across the globe has driven up the selling prices for GPUs over the past one year, which benefits both AMD and Nvidia. Although there have been minor corrections in SKU prices from time to time, GPU prices have, overall, continuously risen up. On the other hand, the intensifying competition between Intel (INTC) and AMD has heated over the recent months and it's resulted in a contraction in prices for AMD's Zen 3-based CPUs. Here's a quick look at how prices have evolved for some of AMD's latest SKUs.\nSource: Compiled by author using Amazon's prices over last 3 months\nThe chipmaker registered a rapid growth in average selling prices (or ASPs) in last two quarters, but its growth in volume shipments has decelerated over the said time frame. It would be interesting to see how these metrics evolve in Q3.\nSource: BusinessQuant.com, company filings\nThere are basically five scenarios that can play out here:\n\nIts ASP and volume shipment growth remains at elevated levels in Q3, highlighting strong competitive positioning and improving supply situation,\nIts ASP growth remains at elevated levels but its shipment growth stagnates, highlight strong competitive positioning but little to no improvement in its supply situation,\nIts ASPs shrink but its shipments growth accelerates, highlighting an erosion of pricing power due to intensifying market competition and an improvement in its supplies,\nIts ASPs and shipment volume shrinks due to intensifying price wars and semiconductor shortages, resulting in a revenue degrowth. This would highlight an erosion of its pricing power and deteriorating supplies.\nIts ASPs and shipment volume growth remains static, indicating little to no change in its supply situation or its competitive positioning.\n\nWithout actually knowing the actual pricing and volume mix for AMD across its various product generations and families, nobody can reliably forecast which of the above cases is going to be prevalent this time around and/or quantify the magnitude of its financial impact for the company as a whole. However, as far as guesstimates go, I contend that AMD's falling CPU prices will offset its rising GPU prices and result in flat ASPs on a sequential basis during Q3.\nAt the same time, its volume growth is likely to accelerate on the back of growing PC shipments. I say this because Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the company that actually manufactures AMD's CPU and GPU chips, shipped wafers in record quantities during Q3. AMD should ideally benefit from this increased supply, unless TSMC diverted it to other customers.\nSource: BusinessQuant.com, company filings\nSo, to summarize, keep an eye out on AMD's shipment and volume growth metrics. These items will highlight the state of its supply chain and how it's positioned against Intel and Nvidia.\nAssessing the Financial Impact\nHaving said that, the work-from-home norms instated last year with the onset of COVID-19, had catapulted the demand for personal computing devices across the globe. Analysts were estimating this catalyst to wane off by Q4 2020 but it seems like they underestimated the pent-up demand. Latest data from Gartner and Canalys reveals that shipments for PCs, notebooks and workstations have risen between 6% to 17% on a year over year basis in Q3.\nSource: BusinessQuant.com, Gartner and Canalys\nIt's needless to say but these industry tailwinds are likely going to boost AMD's sales in Q3. The bulk of these gains are going to reflect in the chipmaker's computing and graphics segment which includes the sales contribution from PC and notebook end-markets. So, I estimate that this segment will post a high-single digit (~7%) increase in revenue on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of roughly around $2.4 billion.\nAMD's Embedded, Enterprise and Semi-custom segment is experiencing a different set of tailwinds. Its gaming console partners (Sony and Microsoft) are experiencing breakneck consumer demand and it's likely that they'll be able to bridge the supply-demand gap only in 2022/2023. Besides, major data center companies continue to adopt AMD's EPYC server chips. So, altogether, the chipmaker's EESC segment seems well poised to post a yet another set of strong results in Q3. I contend that this segment will post a low-double-digit (~12%) revenue growth on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of around $1.79 billion.\nSource: Author's estimates\nOverall, I estimate AMD's total Q3 revenue to be at $4.2 billion. This is coincidentally in-line with the Street's estimates that span from $3.98 billion to $4.21 billion for the quarter.\nLastly, investors should also watch AMD management's Q4 revenue guidance. Its larger rival, Intel, just posted a dismal Q3 earnings report and its management shifted blame on the ongoing chip shortages. It will be interesting to see if AMD's management sees an opportunity of growth here, on the back of Intel's woes, or if it also posts a dismal Q4 guidance due to the ongoing supply shortages. Analysts are forecasting AMD's Q4 revenue guidance to be between $4.05 billion and $4.58 billion, which translates to a record revenue high of $4.31 billion at the mid-point.\nInvestors Takeaway\nIt seems like AMD's revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels for a couple of more quarters at least, thanks to industry tailwinds. Any market share gains over Intel, along the way, will further contribute to its rapid growth. So, overall, I remain bullish on AMD's prospects. Readers may want to keep a close eye on its segment financials, its ASP and shipment growth, and its management's revenue guidance when it reports its Q3 results. These items will highlight AMD's competitive positioning, changes in its supply situation and how well is the company capitalizing on growth catalysts. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859667569,"gmtCreate":1634693312685,"gmtModify":1634695206053,"author":{"id":"4097234938088550","authorId":"4097234938088550","name":"Burner9073","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10ff2f388ee7420b6451e74742a0a8d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097234938088550","idStr":"4097234938088550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"“Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, fell 66% after the company's antiviral pill, being developed with Roche , failed to help patients with mild and moderate COVID-19.”Well. That’s too bad.&nbsp;","listText":"“Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, fell 66% after the company's antiviral pill, being developed with Roche , failed to help patients with mild and moderate COVID-19.”Well. That’s too bad.&nbsp;","text":"“Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, fell 66% after the company's antiviral pill, being developed with Roche , failed to help patients with mild and moderate COVID-19.”Well. That’s too bad.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859667569","repostId":"2176710436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850366106,"gmtCreate":1634556471012,"gmtModify":1634556471222,"author":{"id":"4097234938088550","authorId":"4097234938088550","name":"Burner9073","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10ff2f388ee7420b6451e74742a0a8d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097234938088550","idStr":"4097234938088550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEPC\">$Brookfield Renewable Corp.(BEPC)$</a>Bought after several days of green candles.&nbsp;It will recover !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEPC\">$Brookfield Renewable Corp.(BEPC)$</a>Bought after several days of green candles.&nbsp;It will recover !","text":"$Brookfield Renewable Corp.(BEPC)$Bought after several days of green candles. It will recover !","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17dc250dbb87fd267f02d735763a9b87","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850366106","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000135","authorId":"9000000000000135","name":"JesseRW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4301cbf338b1b38ccad0aea137806a00","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000135","idStr":"9000000000000135"},"content":"hah, It means you have been waiting too long😄","text":"hah, It means you have been waiting too long😄","html":"hah, It means you have been waiting too long😄"},{"author":{"id":"3479274703284436","authorId":"3479274703284436","name":"期货小当家1号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f3af7e7bfa68bfeb522c15a7f77200","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274703284436","idStr":"3479274703284436"},"content":"希望你不会等太长时间","text":"希望你不会等太长时间","html":"希望你不会等太长时间"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":850366106,"gmtCreate":1634556471012,"gmtModify":1634556471222,"author":{"id":"4097234938088550","authorId":"4097234938088550","name":"Burner9073","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10ff2f388ee7420b6451e74742a0a8d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097234938088550","idStr":"4097234938088550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEPC\">$Brookfield Renewable Corp.(BEPC)$</a>Bought after several days of green candles.&nbsp;It will recover !","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEPC\">$Brookfield Renewable Corp.(BEPC)$</a>Bought after several days of green candles.&nbsp;It will recover !","text":"$Brookfield Renewable Corp.(BEPC)$Bought after several days of green candles. It will recover !","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17dc250dbb87fd267f02d735763a9b87","width":"750","height":"1334"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850366106","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000135","authorId":"9000000000000135","name":"JesseRW","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4301cbf338b1b38ccad0aea137806a00","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000135","idStr":"9000000000000135"},"content":"hah, It means you have been waiting too long😄","text":"hah, It means you have been waiting too long😄","html":"hah, It means you have been waiting too long😄"},{"author":{"id":"3479274703284436","authorId":"3479274703284436","name":"期货小当家1号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f3af7e7bfa68bfeb522c15a7f77200","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479274703284436","idStr":"3479274703284436"},"content":"希望你不会等太长时间","text":"希望你不会等太长时间","html":"希望你不会等太长时间"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856749573,"gmtCreate":1635216440217,"gmtModify":1635216456624,"author":{"id":"4097234938088550","authorId":"4097234938088550","name":"Burner9073","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10ff2f388ee7420b6451e74742a0a8d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097234938088550","idStr":"4097234938088550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I hope the deal with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">$Xilinx(XLNX)$</a>will be alright.&nbsp;","listText":"I hope the deal with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLNX\">$Xilinx(XLNX)$</a>will be alright.&nbsp;","text":"I hope the deal with $Xilinx(XLNX)$will be alright.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856749573","repostId":"1181676309","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181676309","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635215793,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181676309?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-26 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Brace For Impact<blockquote>AMD：做好应对冲击的准备</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181676309","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.\nIts revenue for the period could come in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.</li>  <li>Its revenue for the period could come in around $4.2 billion.</li>  <li>The chipmaker's revenue growth momentum could remain at elevated levels in the near future at least.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD将于本周二公布第三季度业绩。</li><li>该公司在此期间的收入可能约为42亿美元。</li><li>该芯片制造商的收入增长势头至少在不久的将来可能会保持在较高水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings report after market close&nbsp;tomorrow. Investors would be curious to see if the chipmaker's revenue growth momentum remains at elevated levels or if it fizzles out due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages. But in addition to looking at its headline revenue figure, investors may also want to monitor changes in its average selling prices and shipment volume, track its segment financials and also listen in on its management's guidance for Q4. These items are likely going to have a bearing on where the stock heads next. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)定于明天收盘后公布第三季度财报。投资者很想知道这家芯片制造商的收入增长势头是否保持在较高水平，或者是否会因持续的半导体短缺而消失。但除了关注其总体收入数据外，投资者可能还希望监控其平均售价和出货量的变化，跟踪其部门财务状况，并听取其管理层对第四季度的指导。这些项目可能会对股票的下一步走势产生影响。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Operational Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营运表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Let me start by saying that AMD is facing mixed pricing and volume dynamics across its two largest product categories, that is GPUs and CPUs. For starters, the ongoing semiconductor shortages across the globe has driven up the selling prices for GPUs over the past one year, which benefits both AMD and Nvidia. Although there have been minor corrections in SKU prices from time to time, GPU prices have, overall, continuously risen up. On the other hand, the intensifying competition between Intel (INTC) and AMD has heated over the recent months and it's resulted in a contraction in prices for AMD's Zen 3-based CPUs. Here's a quick look at how prices have evolved for some of AMD's latest SKUs.</p><p><blockquote>首先让我说，AMD在其两个最大的产品类别（即GPU和CPU）中面临着混合的定价和销量动态。首先，过去一年全球持续的半导体短缺推高了GPU的售价，这对AMD和Nvidia都有利。尽管SKU价格不时出现小幅调整，但GPU价格总体上持续上涨。另一方面，近几个月来，英特尔(INTC)和AMD之间的竞争愈演愈烈，导致AMD基于Zen 3的CPU价格下降。以下是AMD一些最新SKU的价格变化情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68180febc1b82347855564769cd5b258\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Compiled by author using Amazon's prices over last 3 months</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用亚马逊过去3个月的价格编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker registered a rapid growth in average selling prices (or ASPs) in last two quarters, but its growth in volume shipments has decelerated over the said time frame. It would be interesting to see how these metrics evolve in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>该芯片制造商在过去两个季度的平均售价（或ASP）快速增长，但其出货量的增长在上述时间范围内有所放缓。看看这些指标在第三季度如何演变会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e1e1356220a1c822e02180e8f0e55a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are basically five scenarios that can play out here:</p><p><blockquote>这里基本上有五种情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Its ASP and volume shipment growth remains at elevated levels in Q3, highlighting strong competitive positioning and improving supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASP growth remains at elevated levels but its shipment growth stagnates, highlight strong competitive positioning but little to no improvement in its supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASPs shrink but its shipments growth accelerates, highlighting an erosion of pricing power due to intensifying market competition and an improvement in its supplies,</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume shrinks due to intensifying price wars and semiconductor shortages, resulting in a revenue degrowth. This would highlight an erosion of its pricing power and deteriorating supplies.</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume growth remains static, indicating little to no change in its supply situation or its competitive positioning.</li> </ol> Without actually knowing the actual pricing and volume mix for AMD across its various product generations and families, nobody can reliably forecast which of the above cases is going to be prevalent this time around and/or quantify the magnitude of its financial impact for the company as a whole. However, as far as guesstimates go, I contend that AMD's falling CPU prices will offset its rising GPU prices and result in flat ASPs on a sequential basis during Q3.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>第三季度其平均售价和出货量增长保持在较高水平，凸显了强大的竞争地位和供应状况的改善，</li><li>其平均售价增长仍处于较高水平，但出货量增长停滞，凸显了强大的竞争地位，但供应状况几乎没有改善，</li><li>其平均售价下降，但出货量增长加速，突显出由于市场竞争加剧和供应改善而导致定价权受到侵蚀，</li><li>由于价格战加剧和半导体短缺，其平均售价和出货量萎缩，导致收入下降。这将凸显其定价能力的削弱和供应的恶化。</li><li>其平均售价和出货量增长保持不变，表明其供应状况或竞争定位几乎没有变化。</li></ol>在不实际了解AMD各产品代和系列的实际定价和销量组合的情况下，没有人能够可靠地预测上述哪种情况这次会普遍存在和/或量化其对公司的财务影响程度作为一个整体。然而，就猜测而言，我认为AMD CPU价格的下降将抵消其GPU价格的上涨，并导致第三季度平均售价环比持平。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, its volume growth is likely to accelerate on the back of growing PC shipments. I say this because Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the company that actually manufactures AMD's CPU and GPU chips, shipped wafers in record quantities during Q3. AMD should ideally benefit from this increased supply, unless TSMC diverted it to other customers.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在PC出货量增长的背景下，其销量增长可能会加速。我这么说是因为实际制造AMD CPU和GPU芯片的台积电(TSM)在第三季度的晶圆出货量创历史新高。理想情况下，AMD应该会从供应增加中受益，除非台积电将其转移给其他客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08fb2c7e941e681152eb2edc98f1e427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, to summarize, keep an eye out on AMD's shipment and volume growth metrics. These items will highlight the state of its supply chain and how it's positioned against Intel and Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>因此，总而言之，请密切关注AMD的出货量和销量增长指标。这些项目将突出其供应链的状况以及其相对于英特尔和英伟达的定位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Assessing the Financial Impact</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评估财务影响</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, the work-from-home norms instated last year with the onset of COVID-19, had catapulted the demand for personal computing devices across the globe. Analysts were estimating this catalyst to wane off by Q4 2020 but it seems like they underestimated the pent-up demand. Latest data from Gartner and Canalys reveals that shipments for PCs, notebooks and workstations have risen between 6% to 17% on a year over year basis in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，去年新冠肺炎疫情爆发后制定的在家工作规范推动了全球对个人计算设备的需求。分析师预计这种催化剂将在2020年第四季度减弱，但他们似乎低估了被压抑的需求。Gartner和Canalys的最新数据显示，第三季度PC、笔记本电脑和工作站的出货量同比增长了6%至17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb9376f622dd40e0801ffa00b92a62eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, Gartner and Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Gartner和Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's needless to say but these industry tailwinds are likely going to boost AMD's sales in Q3. The bulk of these gains are going to reflect in the chipmaker's computing and graphics segment which includes the sales contribution from PC and notebook end-markets. So, I estimate that this segment will post a high-single digit (~7%) increase in revenue on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of roughly around $2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这些行业顺风可能会提振AMD第三季度的销售额。这些收益的大部分将反映在芯片制造商的计算和图形部门，其中包括PC和笔记本终端市场的销售贡献。因此，我估计该细分市场的收入将环比实现高个位数（约7%）增长，相当于收入数字约为24亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's Embedded, Enterprise and Semi-custom segment is experiencing a different set of tailwinds. Its gaming console partners (Sony and Microsoft) are experiencing breakneck consumer demand and it's likely that they'll be able to bridge the&nbsp;supply-demand gap&nbsp;only in 2022/2023. Besides, major data center companies continue to adopt AMD's EPYC server chips. So, altogether, the chipmaker's EESC segment seems well poised to post a yet another set of strong results in Q3. I contend that this segment will post a low-double-digit (~12%) revenue growth on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of around $1.79 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的嵌入式、企业和半定制领域正在经历一系列不同的顺风。其游戏机合作伙伴（索尼和微软）正在经历惊人的消费者需求，他们很可能要到2022/2023年才能弥合供需缺口。此外，主要数据中心公司继续采用AMD的EPYC服务器芯片。因此，总的来说，这家芯片制造商的EESC部门似乎准备在第三季度发布另一组强劲业绩。我认为，该细分市场的收入环比将实现两位数（约12%）的低增长，相当于收入数字约为17.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148d6340da64d16d5a72b8d88e47dca0\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, I estimate AMD's total Q3 revenue to be at $4.2 billion. This is coincidentally in-line with the Street's&nbsp;estimates&nbsp;that span from $3.98 billion to $4.21 billion for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我估计AMD第三季度总收入为42亿美元。巧合的是，这与华尔街对本季度39.8亿美元至42.1亿美元的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, investors should also watch AMD management's Q4 revenue guidance. Its larger rival, Intel, just posted a dismal Q3 earnings report and its management shifted blame on the ongoing chip shortages. It will be interesting to see if AMD's management sees an opportunity of growth here, on the back of Intel's woes, or if it also posts a dismal Q4 guidance due to the ongoing supply shortages. Analysts are forecasting AMD's Q4 revenue guidance to be between $4.05 billion and $4.58 billion, which translates to a record revenue high of $4.31 billion at the mid-point.</p><p><blockquote>最后，投资者还应关注AMD管理层的第四季度收入指引。其规模更大的竞争对手英特尔刚刚发布了一份惨淡的第三季度收益报告，其管理层将责任归咎于持续的芯片短缺。看看AMD管理层是否在英特尔陷入困境的背景下看到了增长机会，或者是否也因持续的供应短缺而发布了惨淡的第四季度指引，这将是一件有趣的事情。分析师预测AMD第四季度营收指引在40.5亿美元至45.8亿美元之间，这意味着中点营收达到创纪录的43.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investors Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> It seems like AMD's revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels for a couple of more quarters at least, thanks to industry tailwinds. Any market share gains over Intel, along the way, will further contribute to its rapid growth. So, overall, I remain bullish on AMD's prospects. Readers may want to keep a close eye on its segment financials, its ASP and shipment growth, and its management's revenue guidance when it reports its Q3 results. These items will highlight AMD's competitive positioning, changes in its supply situation and how well is the company capitalizing on growth catalysts. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>得益于行业利好，AMD的收入增长势头似乎至少将在未来几个季度内保持在较高水平。在此过程中，任何超过英特尔的市场份额增长都将进一步促进其快速增长。因此，总体而言，我仍然看好AMD的前景。读者可能希望在报告第三季度业绩时密切关注其部门财务状况、平均售价和出货量增长以及管理层的收入指引。这些项目将突出AMD的竞争定位、供应情况的变化以及该公司利用增长催化剂的情况。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Brace For Impact<blockquote>AMD：做好应对冲击的准备</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Brace For Impact<blockquote>AMD：做好应对冲击的准备</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-26 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.</li>  <li>Its revenue for the period could come in around $4.2 billion.</li>  <li>The chipmaker's revenue growth momentum could remain at elevated levels in the near future at least.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec55c4f8340ca053f249af481ee9a179\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD将于本周二公布第三季度业绩。</li><li>该公司在此期间的收入可能约为42亿美元。</li><li>该芯片制造商的收入增长势头至少在不久的将来可能会保持在较高水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings report after market close&nbsp;tomorrow. Investors would be curious to see if the chipmaker's revenue growth momentum remains at elevated levels or if it fizzles out due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages. But in addition to looking at its headline revenue figure, investors may also want to monitor changes in its average selling prices and shipment volume, track its segment financials and also listen in on its management's guidance for Q4. These items are likely going to have a bearing on where the stock heads next. Let's take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote>AMD(AMD)定于明天收盘后公布第三季度财报。投资者很想知道这家芯片制造商的收入增长势头是否保持在较高水平，或者是否会因持续的半导体短缺而消失。但除了关注其总体收入数据外，投资者可能还希望监控其平均售价和出货量的变化，跟踪其部门财务状况，并听取其管理层对第四季度的指导。这些项目可能会对股票的下一步走势产生影响。让我们仔细看看这一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Operational Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营运表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Let me start by saying that AMD is facing mixed pricing and volume dynamics across its two largest product categories, that is GPUs and CPUs. For starters, the ongoing semiconductor shortages across the globe has driven up the selling prices for GPUs over the past one year, which benefits both AMD and Nvidia. Although there have been minor corrections in SKU prices from time to time, GPU prices have, overall, continuously risen up. On the other hand, the intensifying competition between Intel (INTC) and AMD has heated over the recent months and it's resulted in a contraction in prices for AMD's Zen 3-based CPUs. Here's a quick look at how prices have evolved for some of AMD's latest SKUs.</p><p><blockquote>首先让我说，AMD在其两个最大的产品类别（即GPU和CPU）中面临着混合的定价和销量动态。首先，过去一年全球持续的半导体短缺推高了GPU的售价，这对AMD和Nvidia都有利。尽管SKU价格不时出现小幅调整，但GPU价格总体上持续上涨。另一方面，近几个月来，英特尔(INTC)和AMD之间的竞争愈演愈烈，导致AMD基于Zen 3的CPU价格下降。以下是AMD一些最新SKU的价格变化情况。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68180febc1b82347855564769cd5b258\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"236\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Compiled by author using Amazon's prices over last 3 months</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者使用亚马逊过去3个月的价格编制</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker registered a rapid growth in average selling prices (or ASPs) in last two quarters, but its growth in volume shipments has decelerated over the said time frame. It would be interesting to see how these metrics evolve in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>该芯片制造商在过去两个季度的平均售价（或ASP）快速增长，但其出货量的增长在上述时间范围内有所放缓。看看这些指标在第三季度如何演变会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83e1e1356220a1c822e02180e8f0e55a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are basically five scenarios that can play out here:</p><p><blockquote>这里基本上有五种情况：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Its ASP and volume shipment growth remains at elevated levels in Q3, highlighting strong competitive positioning and improving supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASP growth remains at elevated levels but its shipment growth stagnates, highlight strong competitive positioning but little to no improvement in its supply situation,</li>  <li>Its ASPs shrink but its shipments growth accelerates, highlighting an erosion of pricing power due to intensifying market competition and an improvement in its supplies,</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume shrinks due to intensifying price wars and semiconductor shortages, resulting in a revenue degrowth. This would highlight an erosion of its pricing power and deteriorating supplies.</li>  <li>Its ASPs and shipment volume growth remains static, indicating little to no change in its supply situation or its competitive positioning.</li> </ol> Without actually knowing the actual pricing and volume mix for AMD across its various product generations and families, nobody can reliably forecast which of the above cases is going to be prevalent this time around and/or quantify the magnitude of its financial impact for the company as a whole. However, as far as guesstimates go, I contend that AMD's falling CPU prices will offset its rising GPU prices and result in flat ASPs on a sequential basis during Q3.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>第三季度其平均售价和出货量增长保持在较高水平，凸显了强大的竞争地位和供应状况的改善，</li><li>其平均售价增长仍处于较高水平，但出货量增长停滞，凸显了强大的竞争地位，但供应状况几乎没有改善，</li><li>其平均售价下降，但出货量增长加速，突显出由于市场竞争加剧和供应改善而导致定价权受到侵蚀，</li><li>由于价格战加剧和半导体短缺，其平均售价和出货量萎缩，导致收入下降。这将凸显其定价能力的削弱和供应的恶化。</li><li>其平均售价和出货量增长保持不变，表明其供应状况或竞争定位几乎没有变化。</li></ol>在不实际了解AMD各产品代和系列的实际定价和销量组合的情况下，没有人能够可靠地预测上述哪种情况这次会普遍存在和/或量化其对公司的财务影响程度作为一个整体。然而，就猜测而言，我认为AMD CPU价格的下降将抵消其GPU价格的上涨，并导致第三季度平均售价环比持平。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, its volume growth is likely to accelerate on the back of growing PC shipments. I say this because Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the company that actually manufactures AMD's CPU and GPU chips, shipped wafers in record quantities during Q3. AMD should ideally benefit from this increased supply, unless TSMC diverted it to other customers.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，在PC出货量增长的背景下，其销量增长可能会加速。我这么说是因为实际制造AMD CPU和GPU芯片的台积电(TSM)在第三季度的晶圆出货量创历史新高。理想情况下，AMD应该会从供应增加中受益，除非台积电将其转移给其他客户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08fb2c7e941e681152eb2edc98f1e427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"509\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com，公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, to summarize, keep an eye out on AMD's shipment and volume growth metrics. These items will highlight the state of its supply chain and how it's positioned against Intel and Nvidia.</p><p><blockquote>因此，总而言之，请密切关注AMD的出货量和销量增长指标。这些项目将突出其供应链的状况以及其相对于英特尔和英伟达的定位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Assessing the Financial Impact</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评估财务影响</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Having said that, the work-from-home norms instated last year with the onset of COVID-19, had catapulted the demand for personal computing devices across the globe. Analysts were estimating this catalyst to wane off by Q4 2020 but it seems like they underestimated the pent-up demand. Latest data from Gartner and Canalys reveals that shipments for PCs, notebooks and workstations have risen between 6% to 17% on a year over year basis in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，去年新冠肺炎疫情爆发后制定的在家工作规范推动了全球对个人计算设备的需求。分析师预计这种催化剂将在2020年第四季度减弱，但他们似乎低估了被压抑的需求。Gartner和Canalys的最新数据显示，第三季度PC、笔记本电脑和工作站的出货量同比增长了6%至17%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb9376f622dd40e0801ffa00b92a62eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"405\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: BusinessQuant.com, Gartner and Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：BusinessQuant.com、Gartner和Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It's needless to say but these industry tailwinds are likely going to boost AMD's sales in Q3. The bulk of these gains are going to reflect in the chipmaker's computing and graphics segment which includes the sales contribution from PC and notebook end-markets. So, I estimate that this segment will post a high-single digit (~7%) increase in revenue on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of roughly around $2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>不用说，这些行业顺风可能会提振AMD第三季度的销售额。这些收益的大部分将反映在芯片制造商的计算和图形部门，其中包括PC和笔记本终端市场的销售贡献。因此，我估计该细分市场的收入将环比实现高个位数（约7%）增长，相当于收入数字约为24亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD's Embedded, Enterprise and Semi-custom segment is experiencing a different set of tailwinds. Its gaming console partners (Sony and Microsoft) are experiencing breakneck consumer demand and it's likely that they'll be able to bridge the&nbsp;supply-demand gap&nbsp;only in 2022/2023. Besides, major data center companies continue to adopt AMD's EPYC server chips. So, altogether, the chipmaker's EESC segment seems well poised to post a yet another set of strong results in Q3. I contend that this segment will post a low-double-digit (~12%) revenue growth on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of around $1.79 billion.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的嵌入式、企业和半定制领域正在经历一系列不同的顺风。其游戏机合作伙伴（索尼和微软）正在经历惊人的消费者需求，他们很可能要到2022/2023年才能弥合供需缺口。此外，主要数据中心公司继续采用AMD的EPYC服务器芯片。因此，总的来说，这家芯片制造商的EESC部门似乎准备在第三季度发布另一组强劲业绩。我认为，该细分市场的收入环比将实现两位数（约12%）的低增长，相当于收入数字约为17.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/148d6340da64d16d5a72b8d88e47dca0\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"177\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author's estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, I estimate AMD's total Q3 revenue to be at $4.2 billion. This is coincidentally in-line with the Street's&nbsp;estimates&nbsp;that span from $3.98 billion to $4.21 billion for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我估计AMD第三季度总收入为42亿美元。巧合的是，这与华尔街对本季度39.8亿美元至42.1亿美元的预期一致。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, investors should also watch AMD management's Q4 revenue guidance. Its larger rival, Intel, just posted a dismal Q3 earnings report and its management shifted blame on the ongoing chip shortages. It will be interesting to see if AMD's management sees an opportunity of growth here, on the back of Intel's woes, or if it also posts a dismal Q4 guidance due to the ongoing supply shortages. Analysts are forecasting AMD's Q4 revenue guidance to be between $4.05 billion and $4.58 billion, which translates to a record revenue high of $4.31 billion at the mid-point.</p><p><blockquote>最后，投资者还应关注AMD管理层的第四季度收入指引。其规模更大的竞争对手英特尔刚刚发布了一份惨淡的第三季度收益报告，其管理层将责任归咎于持续的芯片短缺。看看AMD管理层是否在英特尔陷入困境的背景下看到了增长机会，或者是否也因持续的供应短缺而发布了惨淡的第四季度指引，这将是一件有趣的事情。分析师预测AMD第四季度营收指引在40.5亿美元至45.8亿美元之间，这意味着中点营收达到创纪录的43.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investors Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> It seems like AMD's revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels for a couple of more quarters at least, thanks to industry tailwinds. Any market share gains over Intel, along the way, will further contribute to its rapid growth. So, overall, I remain bullish on AMD's prospects. Readers may want to keep a close eye on its segment financials, its ASP and shipment growth, and its management's revenue guidance when it reports its Q3 results. These items will highlight AMD's competitive positioning, changes in its supply situation and how well is the company capitalizing on growth catalysts. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>得益于行业利好，AMD的收入增长势头似乎至少将在未来几个季度内保持在较高水平。在此过程中，任何超过英特尔的市场份额增长都将进一步促进其快速增长。因此，总体而言，我仍然看好AMD的前景。读者可能希望在报告第三季度业绩时密切关注其部门财务状况、平均售价和出货量增长以及管理层的收入指引。这些项目将突出AMD的竞争定位、供应情况的变化以及该公司利用增长催化剂的情况。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461826-amd-brace-for-impact\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4461826-amd-brace-for-impact","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181676309","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD will be reporting its Q3 results this Tuesday.\nIts revenue for the period could come in around $4.2 billion.\nThe chipmaker's revenue growth momentum could remain at elevated levels in the near future at least.\n\n\nAMD (AMD) is scheduled to report its Q3 earnings report after market close tomorrow. Investors would be curious to see if the chipmaker's revenue growth momentum remains at elevated levels or if it fizzles out due to the ongoing semiconductor shortages. But in addition to looking at its headline revenue figure, investors may also want to monitor changes in its average selling prices and shipment volume, track its segment financials and also listen in on its management's guidance for Q4. These items are likely going to have a bearing on where the stock heads next. Let's take a closer look at it all.\nOperational Performance\nLet me start by saying that AMD is facing mixed pricing and volume dynamics across its two largest product categories, that is GPUs and CPUs. For starters, the ongoing semiconductor shortages across the globe has driven up the selling prices for GPUs over the past one year, which benefits both AMD and Nvidia. Although there have been minor corrections in SKU prices from time to time, GPU prices have, overall, continuously risen up. On the other hand, the intensifying competition between Intel (INTC) and AMD has heated over the recent months and it's resulted in a contraction in prices for AMD's Zen 3-based CPUs. Here's a quick look at how prices have evolved for some of AMD's latest SKUs.\nSource: Compiled by author using Amazon's prices over last 3 months\nThe chipmaker registered a rapid growth in average selling prices (or ASPs) in last two quarters, but its growth in volume shipments has decelerated over the said time frame. It would be interesting to see how these metrics evolve in Q3.\nSource: BusinessQuant.com, company filings\nThere are basically five scenarios that can play out here:\n\nIts ASP and volume shipment growth remains at elevated levels in Q3, highlighting strong competitive positioning and improving supply situation,\nIts ASP growth remains at elevated levels but its shipment growth stagnates, highlight strong competitive positioning but little to no improvement in its supply situation,\nIts ASPs shrink but its shipments growth accelerates, highlighting an erosion of pricing power due to intensifying market competition and an improvement in its supplies,\nIts ASPs and shipment volume shrinks due to intensifying price wars and semiconductor shortages, resulting in a revenue degrowth. This would highlight an erosion of its pricing power and deteriorating supplies.\nIts ASPs and shipment volume growth remains static, indicating little to no change in its supply situation or its competitive positioning.\n\nWithout actually knowing the actual pricing and volume mix for AMD across its various product generations and families, nobody can reliably forecast which of the above cases is going to be prevalent this time around and/or quantify the magnitude of its financial impact for the company as a whole. However, as far as guesstimates go, I contend that AMD's falling CPU prices will offset its rising GPU prices and result in flat ASPs on a sequential basis during Q3.\nAt the same time, its volume growth is likely to accelerate on the back of growing PC shipments. I say this because Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), the company that actually manufactures AMD's CPU and GPU chips, shipped wafers in record quantities during Q3. AMD should ideally benefit from this increased supply, unless TSMC diverted it to other customers.\nSource: BusinessQuant.com, company filings\nSo, to summarize, keep an eye out on AMD's shipment and volume growth metrics. These items will highlight the state of its supply chain and how it's positioned against Intel and Nvidia.\nAssessing the Financial Impact\nHaving said that, the work-from-home norms instated last year with the onset of COVID-19, had catapulted the demand for personal computing devices across the globe. Analysts were estimating this catalyst to wane off by Q4 2020 but it seems like they underestimated the pent-up demand. Latest data from Gartner and Canalys reveals that shipments for PCs, notebooks and workstations have risen between 6% to 17% on a year over year basis in Q3.\nSource: BusinessQuant.com, Gartner and Canalys\nIt's needless to say but these industry tailwinds are likely going to boost AMD's sales in Q3. The bulk of these gains are going to reflect in the chipmaker's computing and graphics segment which includes the sales contribution from PC and notebook end-markets. So, I estimate that this segment will post a high-single digit (~7%) increase in revenue on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of roughly around $2.4 billion.\nAMD's Embedded, Enterprise and Semi-custom segment is experiencing a different set of tailwinds. Its gaming console partners (Sony and Microsoft) are experiencing breakneck consumer demand and it's likely that they'll be able to bridge the supply-demand gap only in 2022/2023. Besides, major data center companies continue to adopt AMD's EPYC server chips. So, altogether, the chipmaker's EESC segment seems well poised to post a yet another set of strong results in Q3. I contend that this segment will post a low-double-digit (~12%) revenue growth on a sequential basis, which equates to a revenue figure of around $1.79 billion.\nSource: Author's estimates\nOverall, I estimate AMD's total Q3 revenue to be at $4.2 billion. This is coincidentally in-line with the Street's estimates that span from $3.98 billion to $4.21 billion for the quarter.\nLastly, investors should also watch AMD management's Q4 revenue guidance. Its larger rival, Intel, just posted a dismal Q3 earnings report and its management shifted blame on the ongoing chip shortages. It will be interesting to see if AMD's management sees an opportunity of growth here, on the back of Intel's woes, or if it also posts a dismal Q4 guidance due to the ongoing supply shortages. Analysts are forecasting AMD's Q4 revenue guidance to be between $4.05 billion and $4.58 billion, which translates to a record revenue high of $4.31 billion at the mid-point.\nInvestors Takeaway\nIt seems like AMD's revenue growth momentum will remain at elevated levels for a couple of more quarters at least, thanks to industry tailwinds. Any market share gains over Intel, along the way, will further contribute to its rapid growth. So, overall, I remain bullish on AMD's prospects. Readers may want to keep a close eye on its segment financials, its ASP and shipment growth, and its management's revenue guidance when it reports its Q3 results. These items will highlight AMD's competitive positioning, changes in its supply situation and how well is the company capitalizing on growth catalysts. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":859667569,"gmtCreate":1634693312685,"gmtModify":1634695206053,"author":{"id":"4097234938088550","authorId":"4097234938088550","name":"Burner9073","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10ff2f388ee7420b6451e74742a0a8d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097234938088550","idStr":"4097234938088550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"“Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, fell 66% after the company's antiviral pill, being developed with Roche , failed to help patients with mild and moderate COVID-19.”Well. That’s too bad.&nbsp;","listText":"“Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, fell 66% after the company's antiviral pill, being developed with Roche , failed to help patients with mild and moderate COVID-19.”Well. That’s too bad.&nbsp;","text":"“Atea Pharmaceuticals Inc, fell 66% after the company's antiviral pill, being developed with Roche , failed to help patients with mild and moderate COVID-19.”Well. That’s too bad.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/859667569","repostId":"2176710436","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":618585327,"gmtCreate":1651111376166,"gmtModify":1651111376330,"author":{"id":"4097234938088550","authorId":"4097234938088550","name":"Burner9073","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b10ff2f388ee7420b6451e74742a0a8d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4097234938088550","idStr":"4097234938088550"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>The COVID in China is taking the stock down.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$TENCENT(00700)$</a>The COVID in China is taking the stock down.&nbsp;","text":"$TENCENT(00700)$The COVID in China is taking the stock down.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef639ff0895744a6d4ae496fdc63f06","width":"1284","height":"2778"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618585327","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}