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jaylen
2021-10-01
好像不错
抱歉，原内容已删除
jaylen
2021-10-01
$Arrowhead Research Corporation(ARWR)$
飞吧
jaylen
2021-09-26
$Arrowhead Research Corporation(ARWR)$
飞吧孩子
jaylen
2021-09-26
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看
抱歉，原内容已删除
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARWR\">$Arrowhead Research Corporation(ARWR)$</a>飞吧孩子","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARWR\">$Arrowhead Research Corporation(ARWR)$</a>飞吧孩子","text":"$Arrowhead Research Corporation(ARWR)$飞吧孩子","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/442b84b10ffb0b0aa548dc3e0b037798","width":"1080","height":"2288"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868500333","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864169422,"gmtCreate":1633075034673,"gmtModify":1633075034776,"author":{"id":"4095767752626560","authorId":"4095767752626560","name":"jaylen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095767752626560","authorIdStr":"4095767752626560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好像不错","listText":"好像不错","text":"好像不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864169422","repostId":"1144132669","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144132669","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633074947,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144132669?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 15:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"mRNA疫苗产业链：酶是价值链最大的一块","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144132669","media":"太平洋证券","summary":"前言\nmRNA疫苗相关产业链价值测算可以从两方面入手：\n1、参考海外BioNTech和Moderna已披露的成本与构成入手，根据BioNTech和Moderna披露，预计稳定状态成本占比19%-20%","content":"<p>前言</p>\n<p><b>mRNA疫苗相关产业链价值测算可以从两方面入手：</b></p>\n<p>1、参考海外BioNTech和Moderna已披露的成本与构成入手，根据BioNTech和Moderna披露，预计稳定状态成本占比19%-20%，其中授权费用占比5%左右，预计疫苗平均售价20美元，约人民币130元（按汇率6.5计算），则对应的疫苗成本为25-26元/支，剔除授权费用6.5元/支，对应的成本为19-20元/支。</p>\n<p>mRNA疫苗成本构成：原材料、人员和生产设施的生产成本、第三方制造成本、配方和包装成本，以及向第三方支付的运费和特许权使用费。</p>\n<p>2、直接测算，从mRNA疫苗制造过程中需要的原材料出发，原材料按照量*价出发进行测算，和生产设施的生产成本出发。</p>\n<p>根据BioNTech和Moderna的披露，我们可以测算出单支疫苗成本，因并未具体披露原材料、人员和生产设施等成本构成，无法得出各类成本。</p>\n<p><b>此篇报告拟从mRNA疫苗制造过程中需要的原材料出发，原材料按照量*价进行测算，来判断相关产业链的价值。</b></p>\n<p>但这一种测算方法的难点在于，原料的采购价会随着采购规模变化，一般采购规模越大，价格也便宜，相应成本越低；以及大规模生产工艺优化，对原料的需求量也会有所影响。</p>\n<p><b>鉴于价和量的变化，所以我们本篇报告里测算的结果仅供参考。</b></p>\n<p><b>一、mRNA疫苗生产可分为两大块：mRNA制备和脂质微粒进行包封</b></p>\n<p>mRNA疫苗生产可分为两大块，可以类比为“原料药”（mRNA）的生产和纯化，以及“制剂”（利用脂质微粒进行包封）阶段。</p>\n<p>原料药（mRNA）生产涉及DNA原液制备和mRNA原液的制备，mRNA原液的制备（体外转录），是整个mRNA工艺流程中核心的步骤，而原料主要是酶。</p>\n<p><b>所以mRNA疫苗的生产可分为三大阶段，第一步DNA原液制备，第二步mRNA原液的制备，第三步是利用脂质微粒进行包封。</b></p>\n<p><b>第一步：</b>DNA模板生产，主要是质粒生产。编码抗原的DNA模板生产，常用大肠杆菌大规模体内表达，最后提取和纯化携带目的序列的质粒。</p>\n<p><b>第二步：</b>mRNA原液的制备，转录，由DNA到mRNA。在无细胞的反应器内进行转录，通过T7、SP6或T3等RNA多聚酶作用，通过一步或者两步法转录成为mRNA，同时加上5’的Cap及3’的PolyA尾巴，在进一步使用DNA酶将残留的DNA模板进行消除；纯化，使用离子交换等层析步骤进一步将转录形成的mRNA进行纯化，进行超滤浓缩形成原液。</p>\n<p><b>第三步：</b>制剂阶段，利用脂质微粒进行包封。通过微流体泵精确地控制着mRNA原液和脂质流速，将他们混合成脂质纳米粒LNP。最后则是成品的灌装及质量控制，贴签形成终产品。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bf0ca204bdfe77e780b038190862d2c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"347\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>二、mRNA合成过程所需原料及成本测算</b></p>\n<p>mRNA制备过程需要用到的主要原料包括质粒DNA模板、一系列酶（主要为7种酶）以及底物核苷酸等。</p>\n<p><b>1、DNA原液制备</b></p>\n<p>DNA模板生产，主要是质粒的生产。目前质粒的生产提取和纯化工艺很成熟，大部分mRNA企业实行外包。</p>\n<p><b>质粒需求：</b>以质粒（DNA）1000元/mg为计，折算下来1.5元/100ugmRNA。</p>\n<p>若1剂mRNA疫苗为100ugmRNA，则1亿剂mrna疫苗带来质粒需求的规模在1.5亿元，则10亿剂mrna疫苗，带来质粒需求的规模在15亿元左右。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9b1f8f8fa7703dd1151c79cb299ee5e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a4556b970e507cbe85f887870ab459\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>2、mRNA制备</b></p>\n<p>mRNA疫苗的研发与生产需要一系列酶的参与：mRNAT7聚合酶、无机焦磷酸酶、RnaseInhibitor、加帽酶以及2′O-甲基转移酶、Poly(A)聚合酶和DNAase等7种酶以及核苷酸底物。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2517a307ffd19f5c6111806075b3389\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>1）测算mRNA制备过程中酶和核苷酸底物成本：</b>小规模体外转录合成100ugmRNA成本约20元，工业生产酶的出厂价为小规模实验室规模采购价格的1/3左右，则预计成本在6元-7元左右。则1亿剂mRNA疫苗（以100ugmRNA/支为计），带来酶和核苷酸底物成本需求的规模在6-7亿元，则10亿剂mRNA疫苗，规模在60-70亿元左右。</p>\n<p><b>2）mRNA制备过程中，酶是最主要的原料，也是最主要成本。</b>核苷酸底物仅占转录成本10%不到，相对酶来讲占比低。</p>\n<p>3）规模化工业生产体外转录需要对转录和纯化的每一个步骤进行优化，这一系列过程解决方案提供需要酶生产企业的高度参与，所以我们预计体外转录过程中所需要的一系列酶一般会由同一家酶生产企业提供。</p>\n<p><b>三、关于递送系统（LNP）原料及成本测算</b></p>\n<p>根据我们测算（按照<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>和Moderna的需求量）预计单支mRNA疫苗递送系统（LNP）成本在2-4元。LNP中脂类主要成本来自于阳离子脂质（占比90%）。</p>\n<p><b>最广泛应用的LNP组成成分：</b>聚乙二醇脂质、胆固醇、合成磷脂、可电离阳离子脂质。阳离子脂质是最关键的成分。</p>\n<p><b>1）PEG修饰脂质：</b>参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的PEG修饰脂质成分含量，每支mRNA疫苗所需量相对较少，结合PEG-2000销售价格，我们预计1亿剂mRNA疫苗对应的PEG需求预计在几百万元左右。</p>\n<p><b>2）阳离子脂质：</b>有很高的专利壁垒，自行筛选或授权从其他公司购买的阳离子类脂质分子作为主要递送材料，每家公司材料具体结构各不相同，Moderna和BioNTech需定制化。</p>\n<p>参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的阳离子脂质成分含量，以1亿剂需求量对应的产值4亿元，10亿剂为40亿元。工业化生产大规模采购，具有采购优势，阳离子脂质价格有望下降。</p>\n<p><b>3）胆固醇：</b>参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的胆固醇成分含量，以1亿剂需求量对应产值75万元，10亿剂为750万元。工业化生产大规模采购，具有采购优势，价格有望下降。</p>\n<p><b>4）DSPC：</b>参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的DSPC成分含量，测算每支mRNA疫苗各成分对应量(mg)为0.07-0.0.19mg，1亿剂预计为7.2kg-19kg，结合价格，预预计1亿剂对应DSPC产值几百万元左右。</p>\n<p>总结</p>\n<p>1）根据我们测算（按照辉瑞和Moderna的需求量）预计单支mRNA疫苗递送系统（LNP）成本在2-4元。LNP中脂类主要成本来自于阳离子脂质。</p>\n<p>2）我们预计单支mRNA疫苗原材料成本在10元+。综合前面测算的DNA模板（质粒）、体外转录需要的酶和核苷酸底物以及LNP脂类的成本，分别为1.5元、6-7元以及2-4元，单支mRNA疫苗原材料总成本在10元+。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2e632790f1b3660336037327cb41866\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"147\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e1959a22ad1eb61ecfbc4612e85f4a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>风险提示</p>\n<p>mRNA疫苗研发风险，mRNA疫苗销量不及预期风险，价格风险，产能不及预期风险，安全性风险，业绩不及预期风险。</p>","source":"lsy1624242983422","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>mRNA疫苗产业链：酶是价值链最大的一块</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nmRNA疫苗产业链：酶是价值链最大的一块\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-01 15:55 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641623><strong>太平洋证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>前言\nmRNA疫苗相关产业链价值测算可以从两方面入手：\n1、参考海外BioNTech和Moderna已披露的成本与构成入手，根据BioNTech和Moderna披露，预计稳定状态成本占比19%-20%，其中授权费用占比5%左右，预计疫苗平均售价20美元，约人民币130元（按汇率6.5计算），则对应的疫苗成本为25-26元/支，剔除授权费用6.5元/支，对应的成本为19-20元/支。\nmRNA疫苗...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641623\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3153c88188d79bb8182b93c4fdd43636","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3641623","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144132669","content_text":"前言\nmRNA疫苗相关产业链价值测算可以从两方面入手：\n1、参考海外BioNTech和Moderna已披露的成本与构成入手，根据BioNTech和Moderna披露，预计稳定状态成本占比19%-20%，其中授权费用占比5%左右，预计疫苗平均售价20美元，约人民币130元（按汇率6.5计算），则对应的疫苗成本为25-26元/支，剔除授权费用6.5元/支，对应的成本为19-20元/支。\nmRNA疫苗成本构成：原材料、人员和生产设施的生产成本、第三方制造成本、配方和包装成本，以及向第三方支付的运费和特许权使用费。\n2、直接测算，从mRNA疫苗制造过程中需要的原材料出发，原材料按照量*价出发进行测算，和生产设施的生产成本出发。\n根据BioNTech和Moderna的披露，我们可以测算出单支疫苗成本，因并未具体披露原材料、人员和生产设施等成本构成，无法得出各类成本。\n此篇报告拟从mRNA疫苗制造过程中需要的原材料出发，原材料按照量*价进行测算，来判断相关产业链的价值。\n但这一种测算方法的难点在于，原料的采购价会随着采购规模变化，一般采购规模越大，价格也便宜，相应成本越低；以及大规模生产工艺优化，对原料的需求量也会有所影响。\n鉴于价和量的变化，所以我们本篇报告里测算的结果仅供参考。\n一、mRNA疫苗生产可分为两大块：mRNA制备和脂质微粒进行包封\nmRNA疫苗生产可分为两大块，可以类比为“原料药”（mRNA）的生产和纯化，以及“制剂”（利用脂质微粒进行包封）阶段。\n原料药（mRNA）生产涉及DNA原液制备和mRNA原液的制备，mRNA原液的制备（体外转录），是整个mRNA工艺流程中核心的步骤，而原料主要是酶。\n所以mRNA疫苗的生产可分为三大阶段，第一步DNA原液制备，第二步mRNA原液的制备，第三步是利用脂质微粒进行包封。\n第一步：DNA模板生产，主要是质粒生产。编码抗原的DNA模板生产，常用大肠杆菌大规模体内表达，最后提取和纯化携带目的序列的质粒。\n第二步：mRNA原液的制备，转录，由DNA到mRNA。在无细胞的反应器内进行转录，通过T7、SP6或T3等RNA多聚酶作用，通过一步或者两步法转录成为mRNA，同时加上5’的Cap及3’的PolyA尾巴，在进一步使用DNA酶将残留的DNA模板进行消除；纯化，使用离子交换等层析步骤进一步将转录形成的mRNA进行纯化，进行超滤浓缩形成原液。\n第三步：制剂阶段，利用脂质微粒进行包封。通过微流体泵精确地控制着mRNA原液和脂质流速，将他们混合成脂质纳米粒LNP。最后则是成品的灌装及质量控制，贴签形成终产品。\n\n二、mRNA合成过程所需原料及成本测算\nmRNA制备过程需要用到的主要原料包括质粒DNA模板、一系列酶（主要为7种酶）以及底物核苷酸等。\n1、DNA原液制备\nDNA模板生产，主要是质粒的生产。目前质粒的生产提取和纯化工艺很成熟，大部分mRNA企业实行外包。\n质粒需求：以质粒（DNA）1000元/mg为计，折算下来1.5元/100ugmRNA。\n若1剂mRNA疫苗为100ugmRNA，则1亿剂mrna疫苗带来质粒需求的规模在1.5亿元，则10亿剂mrna疫苗，带来质粒需求的规模在15亿元左右。\n\n\n2、mRNA制备\nmRNA疫苗的研发与生产需要一系列酶的参与：mRNAT7聚合酶、无机焦磷酸酶、RnaseInhibitor、加帽酶以及2′O-甲基转移酶、Poly(A)聚合酶和DNAase等7种酶以及核苷酸底物。\n\n1）测算mRNA制备过程中酶和核苷酸底物成本：小规模体外转录合成100ugmRNA成本约20元，工业生产酶的出厂价为小规模实验室规模采购价格的1/3左右，则预计成本在6元-7元左右。则1亿剂mRNA疫苗（以100ugmRNA/支为计），带来酶和核苷酸底物成本需求的规模在6-7亿元，则10亿剂mRNA疫苗，规模在60-70亿元左右。\n2）mRNA制备过程中，酶是最主要的原料，也是最主要成本。核苷酸底物仅占转录成本10%不到，相对酶来讲占比低。\n3）规模化工业生产体外转录需要对转录和纯化的每一个步骤进行优化，这一系列过程解决方案提供需要酶生产企业的高度参与，所以我们预计体外转录过程中所需要的一系列酶一般会由同一家酶生产企业提供。\n三、关于递送系统（LNP）原料及成本测算\n根据我们测算（按照辉瑞和Moderna的需求量）预计单支mRNA疫苗递送系统（LNP）成本在2-4元。LNP中脂类主要成本来自于阳离子脂质（占比90%）。\n最广泛应用的LNP组成成分：聚乙二醇脂质、胆固醇、合成磷脂、可电离阳离子脂质。阳离子脂质是最关键的成分。\n1）PEG修饰脂质：参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的PEG修饰脂质成分含量，每支mRNA疫苗所需量相对较少，结合PEG-2000销售价格，我们预计1亿剂mRNA疫苗对应的PEG需求预计在几百万元左右。\n2）阳离子脂质：有很高的专利壁垒，自行筛选或授权从其他公司购买的阳离子类脂质分子作为主要递送材料，每家公司材料具体结构各不相同，Moderna和BioNTech需定制化。\n参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的阳离子脂质成分含量，以1亿剂需求量对应的产值4亿元，10亿剂为40亿元。工业化生产大规模采购，具有采购优势，阳离子脂质价格有望下降。\n3）胆固醇：参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的胆固醇成分含量，以1亿剂需求量对应产值75万元，10亿剂为750万元。工业化生产大规模采购，具有采购优势，价格有望下降。\n4）DSPC：参考辉瑞和Moderna披露的DSPC成分含量，测算每支mRNA疫苗各成分对应量(mg)为0.07-0.0.19mg，1亿剂预计为7.2kg-19kg，结合价格，预预计1亿剂对应DSPC产值几百万元左右。\n总结\n1）根据我们测算（按照辉瑞和Moderna的需求量）预计单支mRNA疫苗递送系统（LNP）成本在2-4元。LNP中脂类主要成本来自于阳离子脂质。\n2）我们预计单支mRNA疫苗原材料成本在10元+。综合前面测算的DNA模板（质粒）、体外转录需要的酶和核苷酸底物以及LNP脂类的成本，分别为1.5元、6-7元以及2-4元，单支mRNA疫苗原材料总成本在10元+。\n\n\n风险提示\nmRNA疫苗研发风险，mRNA疫苗销量不及预期风险，价格风险，产能不及预期风险，安全性风险，业绩不及预期风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":560,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868274666,"gmtCreate":1632665337955,"gmtModify":1632798703317,"author":{"id":"4095767752626560","authorId":"4095767752626560","name":"jaylen","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095767752626560","authorIdStr":"4095767752626560"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868274666","repostId":"948886898","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":319,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
