@吴家琦:Fed dovishness is a left tail event for markets A dovish pivot for the Fed is not the base case, but recent market repricing indicates some investors are beginning to consider possible rate cuts early next year. This is a curious development given the Fed’s well-signalled resolve to fight inflation. But even if it did occur, it may not give markets the boost many investors assume. In fact, it could do the exact opposite.The reason why any Fed dovishness may be bad for markets is that if the central bank oscillates between tackling inflation and supporting the economy, the policy uncertainty may lead to greater volatility in markets that have become highly dependent on reliable forward guidance. Moreover, any complacency towards inflation may simply boost expectations of price increases amo