+关注
人类高质量油物
暂无个人介绍
IP属地：未知
24
关注
1
粉丝
0
主题
0
勋章
主贴
热门
人类高质量油物
2021-07-29
来吧
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-27
完了
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-27
完了
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-26
[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸]
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-25
螳螂捕蝉 黄雀在后
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-23
[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-22
[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-21
你的人生
抱歉，原内容已删除
人类高质量油物
2021-07-21
[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4089720580683890","uuid":"4089720580683890","gmtCreate":1626634191202,"gmtModify":1626835559635,"name":"人类高质量油物","pinyin":"rlgzlywrenleigaozhiliangyouwu","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":1,"headSize":24,"tweetSize":9,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":0,"name":"","nameTw":"","represent":"","factor":"","iconColor":"","bgColor":""},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.12.10","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":801815424,"gmtCreate":1627507561468,"gmtModify":1633764435087,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"来吧","listText":"来吧","text":"来吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801815424","repostId":"1123886822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809194451,"gmtCreate":1627351327873,"gmtModify":1633765832118,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"完了","listText":"完了","text":"完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809194451","repostId":"2154967120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809194995,"gmtCreate":1627351315217,"gmtModify":1633765832951,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"完了","listText":"完了","text":"完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809194995","repostId":"2154967120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800048665,"gmtCreate":1627268093757,"gmtModify":1633766682044,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸] ","listText":"[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸] ","text":"[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800048665","repostId":"2154309509","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177184318,"gmtCreate":1627186995934,"gmtModify":1633767317151,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"螳螂捕蝉 黄雀在后","listText":"螳螂捕蝉 黄雀在后","text":"螳螂捕蝉 黄雀在后","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177184318","repostId":"2153193628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175172176,"gmtCreate":1627017528095,"gmtModify":1633768724886,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","listText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","text":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175172176","repostId":"1198727806","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172174661,"gmtCreate":1626947317153,"gmtModify":1633769486162,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","listText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","text":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172174661","repostId":"2153555620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178790061,"gmtCreate":1626835431453,"gmtModify":1633770539220,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你的人生","listText":"你的人生","text":"你的人生","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178790061","repostId":"1161739295","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178704444,"gmtCreate":1626835379388,"gmtModify":1633770540137,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","text":"[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178704444","repostId":"1107424947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":178704444,"gmtCreate":1626835379388,"gmtModify":1633770540137,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住] ","text":"[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178704444","repostId":"1107424947","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801815424,"gmtCreate":1627507561468,"gmtModify":1633764435087,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"来吧","listText":"来吧","text":"来吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801815424","repostId":"1123886822","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123886822","pubTimestamp":1627483875,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1123886822?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:51","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123886822","media":"金十数据","summary":"未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的","content":"<blockquote>\n 未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n</blockquote>\n<p>在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。</p>\n<p>对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。</p>\n<p>不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。</p>\n<p>与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。</p>\n<p><b>但现在考验来了。鉴于美联储和欧洲央行下半年的政策轨迹不同，投机钟摆很可能会向有利于美元的方向摆动。</b></p>\n<p>美国商品期货交易委员会每周发布的期货市场头寸显示，坚守16个月的美元净空头上周消失了。</p>\n<p>自2016年3月以来，市场似乎首次基本恢复平衡。去年由于疫情爆发，美元需求出现飙升，但在美联储宽松政策、央行互换协议和全球风险偏好回归的综合作用下，美元需求逆转，迅速减弱。</p>\n<p>此外，本月剩余美元净空头仓位的平仓迅速而广泛。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MTU\">三菱日联金融</a>集团全球市场研究主管Derek Halpenny指出，当你进一步分析CFTC数据时会发现，资产管理公司、机构投资者和杠杆基金所持美元空头头寸的合计降幅为8年来最大。</p>\n<p><b>Halpenny认为，美元可能从目前的水平适度走强。</b></p>\n<p><b>美联储将比其他央行更快转鹰？</b></p>\n<p>Matthew Hornback和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>宏观策略师认为，最近美元价格走势“令人困惑”，是因为市场在美联储正常化、全球经济增长忧虑和通胀上升等多重说法之间摇摆不定。</p>\n<p><b>他们预计美元将从现在开始走强，因美联储会比欧洲央行更早转向，且美国国债名义收益率和实际收益率开始再次走高。 通胀和全球增长主题不太可能持久。</b></p>\n<p>Paul Meggyesi和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>外汇团队也认为欧元/美元将进一步下滑，并强调欧洲央行未来可能还会有更多鸽派立场，使“欧元成为类似日元的准永久性融资货币”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93d3cd4f9f0e866e280d193fe0f14d0e\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8ce6a58aa1057169eab4c974bdade81\" tg-width=\"973\" tg-height=\"734\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>对欧元、美元有何启示？</b></p>\n<p>接下来，经济基本面或数据意外、海外风险偏好、长期公允价值模型和对冲基金资金流向都将对美元产生一定影响。</p>\n<p>但市场上存在着一种观点，即汇率往往会被过度定价，而且有大量的历史证据表明市场会从一个极端走向另一个极端。</p>\n<p>投机性头寸的完全波动不常发生，但仅在过去4年就发生了三次这种净多头和净空头之间的转换。 从一个极端到另一个极端平均需要16个月的时间，而现在离最近的净空头峰值只过去了6个月的时间。</p>\n<p>不过，最近几周，美国国债收益率大幅下滑，甚至一度回落至纪录低位，欧债走势也比较低迷，这与市场共识相悖。</p>\n<p>此前欧洲央行宣布新的2%的通胀目标，这意味着，欧洲央行更有可能增加而不是减少债券购买，因为中期通胀预测和市场预期仍比这一目标低约0.5个百分点。另外，市场预计，疲软的欧元可能有助于提升低迷的通胀预期。</p>\n<p><b>这将对欧元带来什么影响？</b></p>\n<p>欧洲央行经济学家去年末研究了，美联储和欧洲央行这两家央行量化宽松的步伐不同，在多大程度上影响了欧元/美元。</p>\n<p>他们得出的结论是，在疫情爆发后的6个月里，美联储的资产负债表比欧洲央行多扩大了16个百分点，欧元/美元上涨了6%，约占欧元/美元整体变动的三分之二。</p>\n<p>自那以后，这场资产负债表之战已趋于平衡。 在过去9个月里，欧洲央行的资产负债表扩张速度比美联储快了6个百分点，而汇率几乎没有变动。</p>\n<p><b>仅凭这一点，再加上未来相对的量化宽松速度，货币钟摆很可能开始向美元的方向摆动。</b></p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场对做空美元已经厌倦，美元多头将迎来高光时刻？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-28 22:51 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。\n不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。\n与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。\n但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/78639","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123886822","content_text":"未来的货币钟摆很可能开始向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n\n在做空美元16个月后，货币投机者似乎认输了。\n对世界上最大的储备货币来说，做空美元是否合适一直是一个有争议的问题。极端头寸通常是相反的信号，它揭示的更多是交易过度拥挤，而不是货币的走势方向。\n不出所料，对美元压倒性地做空成为了今年的“痛苦交易”之一。\n与世界第二大储备货币欧元，甚至世界上交易量最大的一篮子货币相比，美元自1月以来上涨了约3%。\n但现在考验来了。鉴于美联储和欧洲央行下半年的政策轨迹不同，投机钟摆很可能会向有利于美元的方向摆动。\n美国商品期货交易委员会每周发布的期货市场头寸显示，坚守16个月的美元净空头上周消失了。\n自2016年3月以来，市场似乎首次基本恢复平衡。去年由于疫情爆发，美元需求出现飙升，但在美联储宽松政策、央行互换协议和全球风险偏好回归的综合作用下，美元需求逆转，迅速减弱。\n此外，本月剩余美元净空头仓位的平仓迅速而广泛。三菱日联金融集团全球市场研究主管Derek Halpenny指出，当你进一步分析CFTC数据时会发现，资产管理公司、机构投资者和杠杆基金所持美元空头头寸的合计降幅为8年来最大。\nHalpenny认为，美元可能从目前的水平适度走强。\n美联储将比其他央行更快转鹰？\nMatthew Hornback和摩根士丹利宏观策略师认为，最近美元价格走势“令人困惑”，是因为市场在美联储正常化、全球经济增长忧虑和通胀上升等多重说法之间摇摆不定。\n他们预计美元将从现在开始走强，因美联储会比欧洲央行更早转向，且美国国债名义收益率和实际收益率开始再次走高。 通胀和全球增长主题不太可能持久。\nPaul Meggyesi和摩根大通外汇团队也认为欧元/美元将进一步下滑，并强调欧洲央行未来可能还会有更多鸽派立场，使“欧元成为类似日元的准永久性融资货币”。\n\n对欧元、美元有何启示？\n接下来，经济基本面或数据意外、海外风险偏好、长期公允价值模型和对冲基金资金流向都将对美元产生一定影响。\n但市场上存在着一种观点，即汇率往往会被过度定价，而且有大量的历史证据表明市场会从一个极端走向另一个极端。\n投机性头寸的完全波动不常发生，但仅在过去4年就发生了三次这种净多头和净空头之间的转换。 从一个极端到另一个极端平均需要16个月的时间，而现在离最近的净空头峰值只过去了6个月的时间。\n不过，最近几周，美国国债收益率大幅下滑，甚至一度回落至纪录低位，欧债走势也比较低迷，这与市场共识相悖。\n此前欧洲央行宣布新的2%的通胀目标，这意味着，欧洲央行更有可能增加而不是减少债券购买，因为中期通胀预测和市场预期仍比这一目标低约0.5个百分点。另外，市场预计，疲软的欧元可能有助于提升低迷的通胀预期。\n这将对欧元带来什么影响？\n欧洲央行经济学家去年末研究了，美联储和欧洲央行这两家央行量化宽松的步伐不同，在多大程度上影响了欧元/美元。\n他们得出的结论是，在疫情爆发后的6个月里，美联储的资产负债表比欧洲央行多扩大了16个百分点，欧元/美元上涨了6%，约占欧元/美元整体变动的三分之二。\n自那以后，这场资产负债表之战已趋于平衡。 在过去9个月里，欧洲央行的资产负债表扩张速度比美联储快了6个百分点，而汇率几乎没有变动。\n仅凭这一点，再加上未来相对的量化宽松速度，货币钟摆很可能开始向美元的方向摆动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177184318,"gmtCreate":1627186995934,"gmtModify":1633767317151,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"螳螂捕蝉 黄雀在后","listText":"螳螂捕蝉 黄雀在后","text":"螳螂捕蝉 黄雀在后","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177184318","repostId":"2153193628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809194451,"gmtCreate":1627351327873,"gmtModify":1633765832118,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"完了","listText":"完了","text":"完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809194451","repostId":"2154967120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809194995,"gmtCreate":1627351315217,"gmtModify":1633765832951,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"完了","listText":"完了","text":"完了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809194995","repostId":"2154967120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800048665,"gmtCreate":1627268093757,"gmtModify":1633766682044,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸] ","listText":"[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸] ","text":"[鬼脸] [鬼脸] [鬼脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800048665","repostId":"2154309509","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154309509","pubTimestamp":1627265160,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2154309509?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 10:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"半年9000亿美元！创纪录资金涌入美国基金","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154309509","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"今年上半年，全球投资者大举抄底美国资产，但随着风险再一次积聚，资金流入步伐已经出现放缓。\n据Refinitiv Lipper汇编的数据，今年上半年，净流入美国公募基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金规","content":"<p>今年上半年，全球投资者大举抄底美国资产，但随着风险再一次积聚，资金流入步伐已经出现放缓。</p>\n<p>据Refinitiv Lipper汇编的数据，今年上半年，净流入美国公募基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金规模超过9000亿美元，刷新了1992年以来的纪录，并且超过了2021年前两个季度全球投资者投资于其他地区基金的总和。</p>\n<p>不过到了上半年末，资金流入出现放缓态势。数据显示，6月份流入美国基金的资金约为510亿美元，低于5月份的1680亿美元，也是1月份以来流入资金首次低于1000亿美元。与此同时，流入海外的资金从5月份的840亿美元增加到上月的930亿美元以上。</p>\n<p>美国债市也吸引了大量资金流入。EPFR的数据显示，截至6月30日，美国债券在外国债券基金持仓比例为25%左右。这一比例高于去年年底的23%和2019年底的10%左右。分析认为，美元下跌降低了外国投资者持有美国债券的成本。</p>\n<p>不过，也有分析师开始警告称，资金往往会追逐近期的市场赢家，但对美国经济成长的押注可能会令投资者失望。</p>\n<p>一方面，在今年上半年录得17%的创纪录回报后，标普500的估值高企。FactSet的数据显示，标普500指数成份股目前的市盈率约为28倍。这接近2000年以来的最高水平。</p>\n<p>另一方面，随着疫情复燃，对于美国经济复苏见顶的担忧也在加剧。目前市场预计，今年第二季度美国经济折合成年率将增长9%，但此后将有所放缓。具体数据将于本周公布。</p>\n<p>据华尔街日报援引经济学家们的观点称，美国经济增速可能在今年春季就已经见顶了，2021年整体增速将放缓至6.9%，明年和2023年将分别降至3.2%和2.3%。</p>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>半年9000亿美元！创纪录资金涌入美国基金</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n半年9000亿美元！创纪录资金涌入美国基金\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 10:06 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636287><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年上半年，全球投资者大举抄底美国资产，但随着风险再一次积聚，资金流入步伐已经出现放缓。\n据Refinitiv Lipper汇编的数据，今年上半年，净流入美国公募基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金规模超过9000亿美元，刷新了1992年以来的纪录，并且超过了2021年前两个季度全球投资者投资于其他地区基金的总和。\n不过到了上半年末，资金流入出现放缓态势。数据显示，6月份流入美国基金的资金约为...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636287\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3636287","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154309509","content_text":"今年上半年，全球投资者大举抄底美国资产，但随着风险再一次积聚，资金流入步伐已经出现放缓。\n据Refinitiv Lipper汇编的数据，今年上半年，净流入美国公募基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金规模超过9000亿美元，刷新了1992年以来的纪录，并且超过了2021年前两个季度全球投资者投资于其他地区基金的总和。\n不过到了上半年末，资金流入出现放缓态势。数据显示，6月份流入美国基金的资金约为510亿美元，低于5月份的1680亿美元，也是1月份以来流入资金首次低于1000亿美元。与此同时，流入海外的资金从5月份的840亿美元增加到上月的930亿美元以上。\n美国债市也吸引了大量资金流入。EPFR的数据显示，截至6月30日，美国债券在外国债券基金持仓比例为25%左右。这一比例高于去年年底的23%和2019年底的10%左右。分析认为，美元下跌降低了外国投资者持有美国债券的成本。\n不过，也有分析师开始警告称，资金往往会追逐近期的市场赢家，但对美国经济成长的押注可能会令投资者失望。\n一方面，在今年上半年录得17%的创纪录回报后，标普500的估值高企。FactSet的数据显示，标普500指数成份股目前的市盈率约为28倍。这接近2000年以来的最高水平。\n另一方面，随着疫情复燃，对于美国经济复苏见顶的担忧也在加剧。目前市场预计，今年第二季度美国经济折合成年率将增长9%，但此后将有所放缓。具体数据将于本周公布。\n据华尔街日报援引经济学家们的观点称，美国经济增速可能在今年春季就已经见顶了，2021年整体增速将放缓至6.9%，明年和2023年将分别降至3.2%和2.3%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175172176,"gmtCreate":1627017528095,"gmtModify":1633768724886,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","listText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","text":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175172176","repostId":"1198727806","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":704,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172174661,"gmtCreate":1626947317153,"gmtModify":1633769486162,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","listText":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑] ","text":"[贱笑] [贱笑] [贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172174661","repostId":"2153555620","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":832,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":178790061,"gmtCreate":1626835431453,"gmtModify":1633770539220,"author":{"id":"4089720580683890","authorId":"4089720580683890","name":"人类高质量油物","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/669b09247839ff61ec1fdb2e7d168684","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089720580683890","authorIdStr":"4089720580683890"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你的人生","listText":"你的人生","text":"你的人生","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178790061","repostId":"1161739295","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
