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2021-07-12
I need more such monster growth!
3 Monster Growth Stocks That Could Hit New Highs
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2021-07-12
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2021-07-12
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Virgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance
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need more such monster growth!","listText":"I need more such monster growth!","text":"I need more such monster growth!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146174676","repostId":"2150300768","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150300768","pubTimestamp":1626053034,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150300768?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Monster Growth Stocks That Could Hit New Highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150300768","media":"TipRanks","summary":"The buzz lately has been all about growth. Stocks are high, and going higher. The gains we’re seeing","content":"<div>\n<p>The buzz lately has been all about growth. Stocks are high, and going higher. The gains we’re seeing now are the current extension of a long-term trend – markets have been rising for several years, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-monster-growth-stocks-could-232654666.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Monster Growth Stocks That Could Hit New Highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Monster Growth Stocks That Could Hit New Highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 09:23 GMT+8 <a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-monster-growth-stocks-could-232654666.html><strong>TipRanks</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The buzz lately has been all about growth. Stocks are high, and going higher. The gains we’re seeing now are the current extension of a long-term trend – markets have been rising for several years, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-monster-growth-stocks-could-232654666.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","EVH":"Evolent Health Inc","LE":"Lands End Inc","NTIC":"北方科技国际"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-monster-growth-stocks-could-232654666.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2150300768","content_text":"The buzz lately has been all about growth. Stocks are high, and going higher. The gains we’re seeing now are the current extension of a long-term trend – markets have been rising for several years, and their derailment during last year’s corona crisis appears, in hindsight, to have been blip more than anything else.\nAs President Kennedy said long ago, a rising tide lifts all boats – and right now, a savvy investor can find plenty of boats to jump on.\nSo let’s go find some of those rising boats. Using TipRanks' database, we locked in on three exciting growth names, according to the analyst community. Each analyst-backed ticker stands to notch more gains on top of its already impressive growth. Let's take a closer look.\nEvolent Health (EVH)\nWe’ll start in the healthcare industry, where Evolent Health is a service company to the medical providers. Evolent offers administrative and clinical service to the payers and providers in the healthcare system, working to push down costs while keeping up the quality of care. Evolent’s services include core administration, actuarial services, risk adjustment, pharmacy benefit management, medical and behavioral health integration, and an integrated technology platform to track it all efficiently.\nEvolent saw steep EPS losses at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020, coinciding with the worst of the corona crisis – but losses have been moderating in recent quarters. For the most recent report, 1Q21, the company showed a 12-cent net loss per share – but that was much improved from the year-ago quarter’s EPS loss of 93 cents.\nDuring the first quarter, Evolent announced several new partnerships with healthcare providers, including a network of primary care clinics. The company’s platform currently has over 11.6 million patients’ data under management.\nEvolent shares have raced ahead 195% over the past 52 weeks, but would you believe it could go up another 35%? Truist analyst Sandy Draper does. The analyst rates EVH a Buy along with a $31 price target. (To watch Draper’s track record, click here)\n“We continue to believe EVH can grow its top line at 15%-20% annually and achieve positive EBITDA margin expansion. Recent wins including Florida Blue are driving growth this year and new wins in 1Q21 (including a large unnamed health plan) should drive growth in 2022. We think the current valuation does not reflect the improving growth dynamics and de-risked balance sheet,\" the 5-star analyst opined.\nDraper went on to enumerate several key advantages Evolent offers for market investors: “We view Evolent as a unique play on the transformative shift from the current fee for service environment to value based care in the U.S... We believe that Evolent is differentiated by its proprietary underlying technology platform called Identifi, expertise… and proven track record with existing customers.”\nOverall, this stock has 5 recent reviews on file, and they break down 4 to 1 in favor the Buys over the Hold. The shares are currently trading for $22.79 and have an average price target of $26.80, giving the stock an upside potential of ~18%. (See EVH stock analysis on TipRanks)\n\nNorthern Technologies International Corporation (NTIC)\nOur modern world has given us a wealth of technologies and products that have improved our lives – and also brought along a host of unwanted side effects in the form of corrosion and pollution. Northern Technologies is in the business of corrosion prevention, developing a line of products including packaging products and rust preventatives and removers. The products prevent waste, and encourage recycling by aiding the refurbishing and remanufacturing of engines and other industrial components.\nNTIC has been selling its proprietary ZERUST products and services to the automotive, electronics, electrical, mechanical, military and retail consumer markets for over 40 years, and over the past few years has targeted and expanded into the oil and gas industry.\nMeanwhile, NTIC’s Natur-Tec line has been in the news recently, winning a ‘Masters of Innovation’ award and getting additional notice for its line of biodegradable plastic substitutes.\nThe company recently reported its financial results for fiscal 3Q, ending March 31 of this year. The report showed a 58% yoy net sales increase, to $15.4 million, for a new company record. EPS was also positive, at 21 cents, and far above the 11-cent loss reported in the year-ago quarter.\n2021 has been kind to NTIC, to say the least. Since the year kicked off, shares have skyrocketed 75%.\nNTIC's solid performance has caught the eye of Northland analyst Gus Richard, who sees the company in a sound position, with demand recovering and production ramping back up.\n\"Over time we believe there is a lot of earnings growth from ZERUST Oil & Gas. In addition, in the fall as re-opening continues NTIC's NaturTec compostable plastic business will continue to recover. ZERUST is above pre-pandemic levels demand likely flattens out in FY22,\" the analyst noted.\nTo this end, Richard rates NTIC a Buy along with a $24 price target that indicates confidence in ~31% growth for the months ahead. (To watch Richard’s track record, click here)\nRichard’s is the only review currently on file for NTIC shares, which are priced at $18.27. (See NTIC stock analysis on TipRanks)\n\nLands’ End, Inc. (LE)\nFor the last stock on this list, we’ll shift gears and look at retail. Founded in Chicago and now based in Wisconsin, Lands’ End is a well-known name in mail order and online sales – although it does operate a network of brick-and-mortar stores. The company deals mainly in casual clothing, footwear, and home products and accessories.\nIn May of this year, Lands’ End officially launched its 3rd party seller platform, Lands’ End Marketplace. The platform had been soft-launched for beta testing in June of last year, and showed promise for quick expansion. Marketplace will expand the range of products offered through Lands’ End, while allowing 3rd party customers take advantage of Lands’ End’s established customer service and support.\nTurning to the financials, Lands’ End reported strong yoy gains in revenue and EPS in the first quarter of this year. The 1Q21 report showed $321.3 million in net revenue, up 48% from the year before; the company’s global e-commerce grew by 44.4% to $260 million. The company’s net income was $2.6 million, or 8 cents per share. This was a dramatic turnaround from the steep loss of $20.6 million reported in 1Q20.\nDuring the past 12 months, while Lands’ End’s revenues and earnings were making strong yoy gains, the company’s shares appreciated an astounding 398%. Yet, Craig-Hallum analyst Alex Fuhrman believes the stock has a bit more room to grow.\n\"We think there is considerable opportunity for upside to estimates in the back half of the year as millions of Americans return to their workplaces for the first time in more than a year, setting up an unprecedented rewardrobing event. Lands’ End has a wide assortment office-appropriate clothes, and should generally benefit from a pandemic-accelerated shift in workplace fashion towards more comfortable, casual attire,\" Fuhrman wrote.\nThe analyst added, \"Looking to the balance of 2021 and beyond, we envision continued e-commerce growth, as 2020’s growth was likely the result of market share gains from brick and mortar foes rather than 'pantry loading,' while the retail and uniforms channels have potential for substantial growth ahead.\"\nBased on the above, Fuhrman rates LE a Buy along with a $50 price target. This figure implies ~20% growth over the next 12 months. (See LE stock analysis on TipRanks)\nLE has slipped under most analysts’ radar; Fuhrman is the only bull in the picture right now. (See LE stock analysis on TipRanks)\n\nTo find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146176742,"gmtCreate":1626062776286,"gmtModify":1633930499134,"author":{"id":"4089155818472950","authorId":"4089155818472950","name":"BeeTin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36cb07cceaae809ac1c7c666be68803","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089155818472950","idStr":"4089155818472950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146176742","repostId":"2150704588","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146176168,"gmtCreate":1626062738654,"gmtModify":1633930499733,"author":{"id":"4089155818472950","authorId":"4089155818472950","name":"BeeTin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36cb07cceaae809ac1c7c666be68803","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089155818472950","idStr":"4089155818472950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146176168","repostId":"1143980547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143980547","pubTimestamp":1626060038,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143980547?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143980547","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.</li>\n <li>For the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and grow at CAGR of 350%. Revenue should be $110 billion by 2027.</li>\n <li>The current and expected market capacity does not allow the company to demonstrate such financial performance.</li>\n <li>In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.</li>\n <li>The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so we do not short, we only watch the company from the sideline.</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent. - John Maynard Keynes\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Could a German fugitive who tried to cross the Jornada del Muerto in the dry season of 1670 imagine that a few hundred years later, next to his vulture-torn remains, an eccentric British billionaire would be paving the way into the world of space tourism? Hardly. Thanks to human genius and the free market, we are living in an amazing time. And do not underestimate the role of the latter.</p>\n<p>The financial industry is like a circulatory system for a market organism. Driven by human greed, it distributes resources from old established industries to the most promising sectors of the new economy. It was like this before, and so it is now. The reason why investors are ready to abandon investments in a profitable established company in favor of investments in a loss-making business in an unformed industry is quite understandable. We are ready to release the bird from our hands only if we expect that in the bush there will be not two birds, but 22. But our expectations must be justified. In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation And Perspectives</b></p>\n<p>We usually evaluate a business based on the expected financial results that the company will be able to achieve in the future. With Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE), we decided to go the opposite way. We tried to determine what the financial indicators of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.</p>\n<p>The value of any asset is determined by the present value of its future cash flows. This is an axiom of finance that is often criticized by unsophisticated investors. Indeed, if your investment strategy is based on the hope that someone will definitely agree to pay more for an asset than you pay for it, then the value of the asset is not important. If your friend writes you a bill of exchange and there is a buyer who is always ready to pay for this bill above par, then solvency and interest are unlikely to worry you. However, if there is no such buyer, you will turn into a demanding lender who will carefully compare the interest on a bill of exchange with the value of money and include all possible risks in the interest rate. In other words, you will begin to discount the cash flow.</p>\n<p>The weighted average cost of capital for the SPCE is not difficult to determine. Today the company's assets are 56% financed by equity capital, and there is no debt burden. The company's balance sheet as at the last reporting date is presented below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fcadf6dbf15f58f33506c58d8ad7fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"></p>\n<p>(Source:Company's IR)</p>\n<p>According to our calculation, the company's cost of capital is 9%. Given that Virgin has a low leverage, the weighted average cost of capital is also 9%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9685bee425247505e9479e60a75ad72\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>Thus, if Virgin Galactic's current market cap is fair, the company's free cash flow from 2022 to 2027 should look like this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1919420bc286424d2f62152e2e14ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>It is difficult to estimate the potential profitability of a business that does not yet exist. However, we can roughly define it. The company's cost of revenue includes costs related to rocket fuel consumption, salaries and benefits for pilots and ground crew, and maintenance. Virgin conducted its second test flight in February 2019. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company reflected in the reporting $1 million Cost of revenue, at the end of the first quarter of 2020, SPCE reflected $ 173 thousand in cost of revenue. According to the report, the change in cost of revenue is primarily due to the costs for flying payload in Q1 2019.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befcd5a3926ada7aebead8314713d44c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source:Company's IR)</p>\n<p>Thus, we can determine that the estimated cost of launching one spaceship is $800 thousand dollars. With a ticket price of $200,000, the expected revenue per flight will be $1,200,000. As with the airline business, Virgin's key costs are cost of revenue. If the company can achieve an LFCF margin of 10% (slightly better than that of the most marginal US airlines), then the dynamics of revenue should take the following form:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c6ee07b1a3cbcce384d7e62e90632c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>In an interview withCNBC, CEO Michael Colglazier said he expects each spaceport to generate $1 billion for the company. Thus, to justify the current price, the company needs to build 110 spaceports and sell 275 thousand tickets for 400 thousand dollars each (in the same interview, the CEO said that each spaceport will have 400 flights a year, that is, with a revenue of $1 billion, the price 1 ticket must be equal to $400 thousand). As a reminder,according to UBS, space tourism will be a $3 billion market by 2030. Thus, the current capitalization of the company cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic could be good business one day. However, in our opinion the current capitalization cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations. For the current estimate to be justified, the company needs to sell $ 110 billion worth of tickets by 2027. Which is impossible given the current and expected market capacity. However, we do not short because the company is attracting a lot of attention. As John Maynard Keynes said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We will watch the company from the sideline.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 11:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nFor the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1143980547","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nFor the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and grow at CAGR of 350%. Revenue should be $110 billion by 2027.\nThe current and expected market capacity does not allow the company to demonstrate such financial performance.\nIn our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.\nThe market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so we do not short, we only watch the company from the sideline.\n\n\n The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent. - John Maynard Keynes\n\nThesis\nCould a German fugitive who tried to cross the Jornada del Muerto in the dry season of 1670 imagine that a few hundred years later, next to his vulture-torn remains, an eccentric British billionaire would be paving the way into the world of space tourism? Hardly. Thanks to human genius and the free market, we are living in an amazing time. And do not underestimate the role of the latter.\nThe financial industry is like a circulatory system for a market organism. Driven by human greed, it distributes resources from old established industries to the most promising sectors of the new economy. It was like this before, and so it is now. The reason why investors are ready to abandon investments in a profitable established company in favor of investments in a loss-making business in an unformed industry is quite understandable. We are ready to release the bird from our hands only if we expect that in the bush there will be not two birds, but 22. But our expectations must be justified. In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.\nValuation And Perspectives\nWe usually evaluate a business based on the expected financial results that the company will be able to achieve in the future. With Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE), we decided to go the opposite way. We tried to determine what the financial indicators of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nThe value of any asset is determined by the present value of its future cash flows. This is an axiom of finance that is often criticized by unsophisticated investors. Indeed, if your investment strategy is based on the hope that someone will definitely agree to pay more for an asset than you pay for it, then the value of the asset is not important. If your friend writes you a bill of exchange and there is a buyer who is always ready to pay for this bill above par, then solvency and interest are unlikely to worry you. However, if there is no such buyer, you will turn into a demanding lender who will carefully compare the interest on a bill of exchange with the value of money and include all possible risks in the interest rate. In other words, you will begin to discount the cash flow.\nThe weighted average cost of capital for the SPCE is not difficult to determine. Today the company's assets are 56% financed by equity capital, and there is no debt burden. The company's balance sheet as at the last reporting date is presented below:\n\n(Source:Company's IR)\nAccording to our calculation, the company's cost of capital is 9%. Given that Virgin has a low leverage, the weighted average cost of capital is also 9%.\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nThus, if Virgin Galactic's current market cap is fair, the company's free cash flow from 2022 to 2027 should look like this:\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nIt is difficult to estimate the potential profitability of a business that does not yet exist. However, we can roughly define it. The company's cost of revenue includes costs related to rocket fuel consumption, salaries and benefits for pilots and ground crew, and maintenance. Virgin conducted its second test flight in February 2019. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company reflected in the reporting $1 million Cost of revenue, at the end of the first quarter of 2020, SPCE reflected $ 173 thousand in cost of revenue. According to the report, the change in cost of revenue is primarily due to the costs for flying payload in Q1 2019.\n\n(Source:Company's IR)\nThus, we can determine that the estimated cost of launching one spaceship is $800 thousand dollars. With a ticket price of $200,000, the expected revenue per flight will be $1,200,000. As with the airline business, Virgin's key costs are cost of revenue. If the company can achieve an LFCF margin of 10% (slightly better than that of the most marginal US airlines), then the dynamics of revenue should take the following form:\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nIn an interview withCNBC, CEO Michael Colglazier said he expects each spaceport to generate $1 billion for the company. Thus, to justify the current price, the company needs to build 110 spaceports and sell 275 thousand tickets for 400 thousand dollars each (in the same interview, the CEO said that each spaceport will have 400 flights a year, that is, with a revenue of $1 billion, the price 1 ticket must be equal to $400 thousand). As a reminder,according to UBS, space tourism will be a $3 billion market by 2030. Thus, the current capitalization of the company cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations.\nConclusion\nVirgin Galactic could be good business one day. However, in our opinion the current capitalization cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations. For the current estimate to be justified, the company needs to sell $ 110 billion worth of tickets by 2027. Which is impossible given the current and expected market capacity. However, we do not short because the company is attracting a lot of attention. As John Maynard Keynes said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We will watch the company from the sideline.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146178410,"gmtCreate":1626062664230,"gmtModify":1633930500206,"author":{"id":"4089155818472950","authorId":"4089155818472950","name":"BeeTin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36cb07cceaae809ac1c7c666be68803","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089155818472950","idStr":"4089155818472950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interestg","listText":"Interestg","text":"Interestg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146178410","repostId":"1120319913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120319913","pubTimestamp":1626059818,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120319913?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 11:16","market":"uk","language":"en","title":"Central London rents jump by record as tenants return to capital","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120319913","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.\nRents in central districts surged","content":"<p>[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.</p>\n<p>Rents in central districts surged 4.3 per cent in June from the previous month, the fastest pace on record, as the easing of lockdown restrictions lured tenants back to urban life, according to estate agent Hamptons International. That's the first time since the start of the pandemic that rents saw a monthly increase.</p>\n<p>\"Inner London landlords have suffered more than investors anywhere else in the country. But in recent months rental growth here has changed course,\" said Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, which sees rents in the area returning to pre-pandemic levels over the next year.</p>\n<p>Prices were boosted as the number of tenants seeking leases surged by 45 per cent in June compared with the same period in 2019. A lack of available homes has also put upward pressure on rents, as short-term lets such as Airbnb properties come back to the market.</p>\n<p>The revived interest in city living offers the potential for central London to bounce back from a devastating year. Debate is still raging about whether the pandemic has permanently soured the allure of city life - or if the trend of urban flight will unwind along with the remaining lockdown measures.</p>\n<p>Those who are returning to the city may be in for something of a bargain. Despite the June spike, rents are still down 16.5 per cent from a year earlier.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Central London rents jump by record as tenants return to capital</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral London rents jump by record as tenants return to capital\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 11:16 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/central-london-rents-jump-by-record-as-tenants-return-to-capital><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.\nRents in central districts surged 4.3 per cent in June from the previous month, the fastest pace on record, as the easing of lockdown...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/central-london-rents-jump-by-record-as-tenants-return-to-capital\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/central-london-rents-jump-by-record-as-tenants-return-to-capital","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120319913","content_text":"[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.\nRents in central districts surged 4.3 per cent in June from the previous month, the fastest pace on record, as the easing of lockdown restrictions lured tenants back to urban life, according to estate agent Hamptons International. That's the first time since the start of the pandemic that rents saw a monthly increase.\n\"Inner London landlords have suffered more than investors anywhere else in the country. But in recent months rental growth here has changed course,\" said Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, which sees rents in the area returning to pre-pandemic levels over the next year.\nPrices were boosted as the number of tenants seeking leases surged by 45 per cent in June compared with the same period in 2019. A lack of available homes has also put upward pressure on rents, as short-term lets such as Airbnb properties come back to the market.\nThe revived interest in city living offers the potential for central London to bounce back from a devastating year. Debate is still raging about whether the pandemic has permanently soured the allure of city life - or if the trend of urban flight will unwind along with the remaining lockdown measures.\nThose who are returning to the city may be in for something of a bargain. Despite the June spike, rents are still down 16.5 per cent from a year earlier.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":146174676,"gmtCreate":1626062886895,"gmtModify":1633930496832,"author":{"id":"4089155818472950","authorId":"4089155818472950","name":"BeeTin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36cb07cceaae809ac1c7c666be68803","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089155818472950","idStr":"4089155818472950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I need more such monster growth!","listText":"I need more such monster growth!","text":"I need more such monster growth!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146174676","repostId":"2150300768","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146176742,"gmtCreate":1626062776286,"gmtModify":1633930499134,"author":{"id":"4089155818472950","authorId":"4089155818472950","name":"BeeTin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36cb07cceaae809ac1c7c666be68803","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089155818472950","idStr":"4089155818472950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146176742","repostId":"2150704588","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":138,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146176168,"gmtCreate":1626062738654,"gmtModify":1633930499733,"author":{"id":"4089155818472950","authorId":"4089155818472950","name":"BeeTin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36cb07cceaae809ac1c7c666be68803","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089155818472950","idStr":"4089155818472950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146176168","repostId":"1143980547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143980547","pubTimestamp":1626060038,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143980547?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Virgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143980547","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.</li>\n <li>For the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and grow at CAGR of 350%. Revenue should be $110 billion by 2027.</li>\n <li>The current and expected market capacity does not allow the company to demonstrate such financial performance.</li>\n <li>In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.</li>\n <li>The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so we do not short, we only watch the company from the sideline.</li>\n</ul>\n<blockquote>\n The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent. - John Maynard Keynes\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Could a German fugitive who tried to cross the Jornada del Muerto in the dry season of 1670 imagine that a few hundred years later, next to his vulture-torn remains, an eccentric British billionaire would be paving the way into the world of space tourism? Hardly. Thanks to human genius and the free market, we are living in an amazing time. And do not underestimate the role of the latter.</p>\n<p>The financial industry is like a circulatory system for a market organism. Driven by human greed, it distributes resources from old established industries to the most promising sectors of the new economy. It was like this before, and so it is now. The reason why investors are ready to abandon investments in a profitable established company in favor of investments in a loss-making business in an unformed industry is quite understandable. We are ready to release the bird from our hands only if we expect that in the bush there will be not two birds, but 22. But our expectations must be justified. In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation And Perspectives</b></p>\n<p>We usually evaluate a business based on the expected financial results that the company will be able to achieve in the future. With Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE), we decided to go the opposite way. We tried to determine what the financial indicators of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.</p>\n<p>The value of any asset is determined by the present value of its future cash flows. This is an axiom of finance that is often criticized by unsophisticated investors. Indeed, if your investment strategy is based on the hope that someone will definitely agree to pay more for an asset than you pay for it, then the value of the asset is not important. If your friend writes you a bill of exchange and there is a buyer who is always ready to pay for this bill above par, then solvency and interest are unlikely to worry you. However, if there is no such buyer, you will turn into a demanding lender who will carefully compare the interest on a bill of exchange with the value of money and include all possible risks in the interest rate. In other words, you will begin to discount the cash flow.</p>\n<p>The weighted average cost of capital for the SPCE is not difficult to determine. Today the company's assets are 56% financed by equity capital, and there is no debt burden. The company's balance sheet as at the last reporting date is presented below:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fcadf6dbf15f58f33506c58d8ad7fa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"459\"></p>\n<p>(Source:Company's IR)</p>\n<p>According to our calculation, the company's cost of capital is 9%. Given that Virgin has a low leverage, the weighted average cost of capital is also 9%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9685bee425247505e9479e60a75ad72\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"242\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>Thus, if Virgin Galactic's current market cap is fair, the company's free cash flow from 2022 to 2027 should look like this:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af1919420bc286424d2f62152e2e14ca\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>It is difficult to estimate the potential profitability of a business that does not yet exist. However, we can roughly define it. The company's cost of revenue includes costs related to rocket fuel consumption, salaries and benefits for pilots and ground crew, and maintenance. Virgin conducted its second test flight in February 2019. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company reflected in the reporting $1 million Cost of revenue, at the end of the first quarter of 2020, SPCE reflected $ 173 thousand in cost of revenue. According to the report, the change in cost of revenue is primarily due to the costs for flying payload in Q1 2019.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befcd5a3926ada7aebead8314713d44c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"227\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source:Company's IR)</p>\n<p>Thus, we can determine that the estimated cost of launching one spaceship is $800 thousand dollars. With a ticket price of $200,000, the expected revenue per flight will be $1,200,000. As with the airline business, Virgin's key costs are cost of revenue. If the company can achieve an LFCF margin of 10% (slightly better than that of the most marginal US airlines), then the dynamics of revenue should take the following form:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58c6ee07b1a3cbcce384d7e62e90632c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"389\"></p>\n<p>(Source: Created by the author)</p>\n<p>In an interview withCNBC, CEO Michael Colglazier said he expects each spaceport to generate $1 billion for the company. Thus, to justify the current price, the company needs to build 110 spaceports and sell 275 thousand tickets for 400 thousand dollars each (in the same interview, the CEO said that each spaceport will have 400 flights a year, that is, with a revenue of $1 billion, the price 1 ticket must be equal to $400 thousand). As a reminder,according to UBS, space tourism will be a $3 billion market by 2030. Thus, the current capitalization of the company cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Virgin Galactic could be good business one day. However, in our opinion the current capitalization cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations. For the current estimate to be justified, the company needs to sell $ 110 billion worth of tickets by 2027. Which is impossible given the current and expected market capacity. However, we do not short because the company is attracting a lot of attention. As John Maynard Keynes said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We will watch the company from the sideline.</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Virgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVirgin Galactic And Irrational Exuberance\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 11:20 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nFor the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438687-virgin-galactic-and-irrational-exuberance","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1143980547","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe tried to determine what the financial performance of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nFor the price to be fair, FCFF in 2022 should be $35 million and grow at CAGR of 350%. Revenue should be $110 billion by 2027.\nThe current and expected market capacity does not allow the company to demonstrate such financial performance.\nIn our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.\nThe market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, so we do not short, we only watch the company from the sideline.\n\n\n The Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent. - John Maynard Keynes\n\nThesis\nCould a German fugitive who tried to cross the Jornada del Muerto in the dry season of 1670 imagine that a few hundred years later, next to his vulture-torn remains, an eccentric British billionaire would be paving the way into the world of space tourism? Hardly. Thanks to human genius and the free market, we are living in an amazing time. And do not underestimate the role of the latter.\nThe financial industry is like a circulatory system for a market organism. Driven by human greed, it distributes resources from old established industries to the most promising sectors of the new economy. It was like this before, and so it is now. The reason why investors are ready to abandon investments in a profitable established company in favor of investments in a loss-making business in an unformed industry is quite understandable. We are ready to release the bird from our hands only if we expect that in the bush there will be not two birds, but 22. But our expectations must be justified. In our opinion, the current price of Virgin Galactic can only be explained by irrational exuberance.\nValuation And Perspectives\nWe usually evaluate a business based on the expected financial results that the company will be able to achieve in the future. With Virgin Galactic(NYSE:SPCE), we decided to go the opposite way. We tried to determine what the financial indicators of the company should be in order for the current price to look fair.\nThe value of any asset is determined by the present value of its future cash flows. This is an axiom of finance that is often criticized by unsophisticated investors. Indeed, if your investment strategy is based on the hope that someone will definitely agree to pay more for an asset than you pay for it, then the value of the asset is not important. If your friend writes you a bill of exchange and there is a buyer who is always ready to pay for this bill above par, then solvency and interest are unlikely to worry you. However, if there is no such buyer, you will turn into a demanding lender who will carefully compare the interest on a bill of exchange with the value of money and include all possible risks in the interest rate. In other words, you will begin to discount the cash flow.\nThe weighted average cost of capital for the SPCE is not difficult to determine. Today the company's assets are 56% financed by equity capital, and there is no debt burden. The company's balance sheet as at the last reporting date is presented below:\n\n(Source:Company's IR)\nAccording to our calculation, the company's cost of capital is 9%. Given that Virgin has a low leverage, the weighted average cost of capital is also 9%.\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nThus, if Virgin Galactic's current market cap is fair, the company's free cash flow from 2022 to 2027 should look like this:\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nIt is difficult to estimate the potential profitability of a business that does not yet exist. However, we can roughly define it. The company's cost of revenue includes costs related to rocket fuel consumption, salaries and benefits for pilots and ground crew, and maintenance. Virgin conducted its second test flight in February 2019. At the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company reflected in the reporting $1 million Cost of revenue, at the end of the first quarter of 2020, SPCE reflected $ 173 thousand in cost of revenue. According to the report, the change in cost of revenue is primarily due to the costs for flying payload in Q1 2019.\n\n(Source:Company's IR)\nThus, we can determine that the estimated cost of launching one spaceship is $800 thousand dollars. With a ticket price of $200,000, the expected revenue per flight will be $1,200,000. As with the airline business, Virgin's key costs are cost of revenue. If the company can achieve an LFCF margin of 10% (slightly better than that of the most marginal US airlines), then the dynamics of revenue should take the following form:\n\n(Source: Created by the author)\nIn an interview withCNBC, CEO Michael Colglazier said he expects each spaceport to generate $1 billion for the company. Thus, to justify the current price, the company needs to build 110 spaceports and sell 275 thousand tickets for 400 thousand dollars each (in the same interview, the CEO said that each spaceport will have 400 flights a year, that is, with a revenue of $1 billion, the price 1 ticket must be equal to $400 thousand). As a reminder,according to UBS, space tourism will be a $3 billion market by 2030. Thus, the current capitalization of the company cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations.\nConclusion\nVirgin Galactic could be good business one day. However, in our opinion the current capitalization cannot be explained by any reasonable expectations. For the current estimate to be justified, the company needs to sell $ 110 billion worth of tickets by 2027. Which is impossible given the current and expected market capacity. However, we do not short because the company is attracting a lot of attention. As John Maynard Keynes said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. We will watch the company from the sideline.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146178410,"gmtCreate":1626062664230,"gmtModify":1633930500206,"author":{"id":"4089155818472950","authorId":"4089155818472950","name":"BeeTin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36cb07cceaae809ac1c7c666be68803","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089155818472950","idStr":"4089155818472950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interestg","listText":"Interestg","text":"Interestg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146178410","repostId":"1120319913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120319913","pubTimestamp":1626059818,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120319913?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 11:16","market":"uk","language":"en","title":"Central London rents jump by record as tenants return to capital","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120319913","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.\nRents in central districts surged","content":"<p>[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.</p>\n<p>Rents in central districts surged 4.3 per cent in June from the previous month, the fastest pace on record, as the easing of lockdown restrictions lured tenants back to urban life, according to estate agent Hamptons International. That's the first time since the start of the pandemic that rents saw a monthly increase.</p>\n<p>\"Inner London landlords have suffered more than investors anywhere else in the country. But in recent months rental growth here has changed course,\" said Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, which sees rents in the area returning to pre-pandemic levels over the next year.</p>\n<p>Prices were boosted as the number of tenants seeking leases surged by 45 per cent in June compared with the same period in 2019. A lack of available homes has also put upward pressure on rents, as short-term lets such as Airbnb properties come back to the market.</p>\n<p>The revived interest in city living offers the potential for central London to bounce back from a devastating year. Debate is still raging about whether the pandemic has permanently soured the allure of city life - or if the trend of urban flight will unwind along with the remaining lockdown measures.</p>\n<p>Those who are returning to the city may be in for something of a bargain. Despite the June spike, rents are still down 16.5 per cent from a year earlier.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Central London rents jump by record as tenants return to capital</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCentral London rents jump by record as tenants return to capital\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 11:16 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/central-london-rents-jump-by-record-as-tenants-return-to-capital><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.\nRents in central districts surged 4.3 per cent in June from the previous month, the fastest pace on record, as the easing of lockdown...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/central-london-rents-jump-by-record-as-tenants-return-to-capital\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/real-estate/central-london-rents-jump-by-record-as-tenants-return-to-capital","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120319913","content_text":"[LONDON] Londoners have returned to their city center with a bang.\nRents in central districts surged 4.3 per cent in June from the previous month, the fastest pace on record, as the easing of lockdown restrictions lured tenants back to urban life, according to estate agent Hamptons International. That's the first time since the start of the pandemic that rents saw a monthly increase.\n\"Inner London landlords have suffered more than investors anywhere else in the country. But in recent months rental growth here has changed course,\" said Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, which sees rents in the area returning to pre-pandemic levels over the next year.\nPrices were boosted as the number of tenants seeking leases surged by 45 per cent in June compared with the same period in 2019. A lack of available homes has also put upward pressure on rents, as short-term lets such as Airbnb properties come back to the market.\nThe revived interest in city living offers the potential for central London to bounce back from a devastating year. Debate is still raging about whether the pandemic has permanently soured the allure of city life - or if the trend of urban flight will unwind along with the remaining lockdown measures.\nThose who are returning to the city may be in for something of a bargain. Despite the June spike, rents are still down 16.5 per cent from a year earlier.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
