Imhy的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Imhy

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

2关注

0粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-07-27

Continue flying!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-22

Buy the dip!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-14

$Apple(AAPL)$Up up and away

2021-07-12

To the moon!

Apple: New Highs, But Now What?

2021-07-02

To the moon 🌕

When AAPL Traded Like A Meme Stock

2021-06-29

[Smile]

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4087134899796190","uuid":"4087134899796190","gmtCreate":1624031837110,"gmtModify":1624031837110,"name":"Imhy","pinyin":"imhy","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":0,"headSize":2,"tweetSize":6,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.01.06","exceedPercentage":"80.17%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-2","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资总监虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到30万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d20b23f1b6335407f882bc5c2ad12c0","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ada3b4533518ace8404a3f6dd192bd29","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/177f283ba21d1c077054dac07f88f3bd","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"80.53%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":809486361,"gmtCreate":1627387286353,"gmtModify":1633765511869,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087134899796190","authorIdStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continue flying!","listText":"Continue flying!","text":"Continue flying!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809486361","repostId":"1108884592","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172292117,"gmtCreate":1626961630939,"gmtModify":1633769350510,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087134899796190","authorIdStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip!","listText":"Buy the dip!","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172292117","repostId":"1175825882","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144898149,"gmtCreate":1626274022381,"gmtModify":1633928362722,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087134899796190","authorIdStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Up up and away","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Up up and away","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Up up and away","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e90302fe4e1102e8db63d62755f3a7","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144898149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146834295,"gmtCreate":1626065180517,"gmtModify":1633930474451,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087134899796190","authorIdStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon!","listText":"To the moon!","text":"To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146834295","repostId":"1155038838","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155038838","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626057810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155038838?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 10:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: New Highs, But Now What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155038838","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?There is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!AAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.Looking for more investing ideas like this one?Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More. So Apple Inc.  is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?</li>\n <li>There is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!</li>\n <li>AAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.</li>\n <li>Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More »</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b65798f03c6f9376257bba2741e588\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</p>\n<p>So Apple Inc. (AAPL) is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.</p>\n<p>Market valuations, in general, are stretched, as stocks just notched the 2nd best first half of the year performance in history (up ~14%).</p>\n<p>Interest rates don't seem to know where they are going.</p>\n<p>Inflation is spiking (although many think this is \"transitory\").</p>\n<p>Unemployment is still stubbornly high.</p>\n<p>You get the picture... there's uncertainty.</p>\n<p>All that said, I could make a case for Apple to go either higher or lower over the short term... and there is one chart, in particular, that could dictate that!</p>\n<p><b>The Most Important Chart For Apple</b></p>\n<p>As much as we all like to talk about 5G rollouts and the growth of Apple's wearables segment, nothing will be more important to the stock over the next 12 months than what is in the chart below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8b9e7dd9a7a29241bc334872748b52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yes, this is a chart of Apple's stock price vs. the 10 Year Treasury rate. We are at that point in the cycle, folks. Growth stocks are already starting to react to movements in rates... and even Apple has not been able to hide from it.</p>\n<p>The good and the bad of this is that if interest rates stay low (the good), Apple will likely continue to trend higher... but if rates spike (the bad), Apple will get crushed along with the rest of the growth stocks. Unfortunately, the consensus is that rates will certainly increase over the next 12-24 months. That said, the short-term is up in the air. So keep this chart on your radar.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Since cash-secured puts are short-term trades in nature (typically less than 60 days until maturity), our analysis certainly depends more on short-term catalysts and technical support levels, but we also like to be long-term neutral or bullish on the stock as well.</p>\n<p>Here is our typical framework for analysis (which is a good outline for the article):</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>\n <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>\n <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>\n <li>Downside Considerations</li>\n <li>Conclusion</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (MAC), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.</p>\n<p><i>(Source: YCharts)</i></p>\n<p>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</p>\n<p>In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p>\n<p>That said, here is how Apple currently ranks across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (4), Safety (9), Value (3).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30644bfee0b070e2d9015bff11598f30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</i></p>\n<p><b>Dividend</b></p>\n<p>We all know that Apple has the potential to be the greatest dividend stock of all time...it just isn't ready yet! That said, the company has raised its dividend in each of the past 8 years and currently yields 0.61% with a really low payout ratio of 17.0%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee1e06934335af3e4f5201e9e7957e3\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year and 5-year compound annual growth rates of 6.0% and 9.9%, respectively. Basically, everything looks pretty good except for the yield!</p>\n<p><b>Safety</b></p>\n<p>Apple's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty (hence the Safety Rating of 9)! Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $5.17 per share in 2021 (a 58% increase over 2020). However, EPS is expected to stabilize in 2022 with projected EPS of $5.30.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bfeb0d3855a566e05ec26e7af849a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That said, the company's balance sheet is also extremely strong with $69.8 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing an amazing return on invested capital of 141.5%!</p>\n<p>Apple's reasonable historical stock volatility, with a 5-year standard deviation of 29.4% and beta of 1.2, is also helping to maintain its high Safety Ranking.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Apple currently carries a low rating of 3 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a premium (even on a forward basis) compared to its historical averages for price/sales, price/earnings, and EV/EBITDA. That said, the market has \"repriced\" Apple over the past few years as the company has transitioned from a hardware business to more of a services business. As such, historical valuations are not a good proxy or comparison for future valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83b3d7c6ac8daaf28bd3b7266725a04\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Despite having a really low dividend yield, Apple actually has a decent shareholder yield of 3.8%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p>\n<p><b>Long-term View</b></p>\n<p>Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Neutral long-term perspective on Apple. As sales and earnings growth stabilize and slow post-pandemic, the catalyst for earnings surprises may be limited. In addition, the company's valuation feels full at current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p>\n<p>From a short-term perspective (especially as it is related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p>\n<p>As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Apple is currently $119.00-$133.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 8.5%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac7007040b92ed0d32a8eb27c8620c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Apple ranks positively on a relative basis for Volatility/Risk (rating of 8). However, the stock just made a new 52-week high last Friday (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 8.5%).</p>\n<p>That said, AAPL also reports earnings within the next 30 days, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.</p>\n<p>As shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have three good levels of support to watch:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>50-day MA (~$130.00)</li>\n <li>200-day MA (~$126.00)</li>\n <li>Recent low in March 2021 (~$120.00)</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4071baef483a8e8478deb78e45bb73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Short-Term View</b></p>\n<p>There appears to be some decent technical support around our strike zone of $119.00-$133.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put in the strike zone if we can.</p>\n<p>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</p>\n<p>Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p>\n<p>The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%):</b>Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash-secured.</i></li>\n <li><b>Margin-of-Safety %:</b>Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>\n <li><b>Delta:</b>A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p>\n<p><i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance! The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p>\n<p>Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Apple. We are focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 8/20/21.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b192ce564ff2fe4aaaf8abf9f4c7542\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We have highlighted 3 levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).</p>\n<p>Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>\n <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>\n <li>Delta &lt; 30</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option @ ~$1.92 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 7.0%, and a Delta of 22</b>.</p>\n<p><i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($140.00 strike) or more conservative ($130.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p>\n<p><b>Downside Considerations</b></p>\n<p>Assuming we sold the AAPL Aug20th $135.00 strike put option @ $1.92, we would collect $192.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of AAPL stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $135.00.</p>\n<p>If the stock stays above $135.00 between now and expiration (8/20/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.92.</p>\n<p>However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $135.00 on expiration (8/20/21). Since we are obligated to buy the stock at $135.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $133.08 ($135.00 - $1.92).</p>\n<p>All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p>\n<p>But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Based on our long-term and short-term views on Apple, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested in a new position in the stock. The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.4% over the next 42 days) with a margin-of-safety of 7.0%.</p>\n<p>Assuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could build 12%+ annualized income from Apple over the next 12 months (no bad for a stock that currently has a dividend yield under 1.0%).</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: New Highs, But Now What?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: New Highs, But Now What?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 10:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?\nThere is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155038838","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?\nThere is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!\nAAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.\nLooking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More »\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nSo Apple Inc. (AAPL) is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.\nMarket valuations, in general, are stretched, as stocks just notched the 2nd best first half of the year performance in history (up ~14%).\nInterest rates don't seem to know where they are going.\nInflation is spiking (although many think this is \"transitory\").\nUnemployment is still stubbornly high.\nYou get the picture... there's uncertainty.\nAll that said, I could make a case for Apple to go either higher or lower over the short term... and there is one chart, in particular, that could dictate that!\nThe Most Important Chart For Apple\nAs much as we all like to talk about 5G rollouts and the growth of Apple's wearables segment, nothing will be more important to the stock over the next 12 months than what is in the chart below.\nYes, this is a chart of Apple's stock price vs. the 10 Year Treasury rate. We are at that point in the cycle, folks. Growth stocks are already starting to react to movements in rates... and even Apple has not been able to hide from it.\nThe good and the bad of this is that if interest rates stay low (the good), Apple will likely continue to trend higher... but if rates spike (the bad), Apple will get crushed along with the rest of the growth stocks. Unfortunately, the consensus is that rates will certainly increase over the next 12-24 months. That said, the short-term is up in the air. So keep this chart on your radar.\nIntroduction\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n\nSince cash-secured puts are short-term trades in nature (typically less than 60 days until maturity), our analysis certainly depends more on short-term catalysts and technical support levels, but we also like to be long-term neutral or bullish on the stock as well.\nHere is our typical framework for analysis (which is a good outline for the article):\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nDownside Considerations\nConclusion\n\nApple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (MAC), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.\n(Source: YCharts)\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nIn general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.\nThat said, here is how Apple currently ranks across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (4), Safety (9), Value (3).\n\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nDividend\nWe all know that Apple has the potential to be the greatest dividend stock of all time...it just isn't ready yet! That said, the company has raised its dividend in each of the past 8 years and currently yields 0.61% with a really low payout ratio of 17.0%.\n\nIn addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year and 5-year compound annual growth rates of 6.0% and 9.9%, respectively. Basically, everything looks pretty good except for the yield!\nSafety\nApple's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty (hence the Safety Rating of 9)! Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $5.17 per share in 2021 (a 58% increase over 2020). However, EPS is expected to stabilize in 2022 with projected EPS of $5.30.\nThat said, the company's balance sheet is also extremely strong with $69.8 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing an amazing return on invested capital of 141.5%!\nApple's reasonable historical stock volatility, with a 5-year standard deviation of 29.4% and beta of 1.2, is also helping to maintain its high Safety Ranking.\nValuation\nApple currently carries a low rating of 3 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a premium (even on a forward basis) compared to its historical averages for price/sales, price/earnings, and EV/EBITDA. That said, the market has \"repriced\" Apple over the past few years as the company has transitioned from a hardware business to more of a services business. As such, historical valuations are not a good proxy or comparison for future valuations.\n\nDespite having a really low dividend yield, Apple actually has a decent shareholder yield of 3.8%.Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.\nLong-term View\nBased on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Neutral long-term perspective on Apple. As sales and earnings growth stabilize and slow post-pandemic, the catalyst for earnings surprises may be limited. In addition, the company's valuation feels full at current levels.\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it is related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for Apple is currently $119.00-$133.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 8.5%.\n\nAs discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Apple ranks positively on a relative basis for Volatility/Risk (rating of 8). However, the stock just made a new 52-week high last Friday (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 8.5%).\nThat said, AAPL also reports earnings within the next 30 days, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have three good levels of support to watch:\n\n50-day MA (~$130.00)\n200-day MA (~$126.00)\nRecent low in March 2021 (~$120.00)\n\n\nShort-Term View\nThere appears to be some decent technical support around our strike zone of $119.00-$133.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put in the strike zone if we can.\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%):Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash-secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %:Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta:A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance! The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Apple. We are focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 8/20/21.\n\nWe have highlighted 3 levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option @ ~$1.92 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 7.0%, and a Delta of 22.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($140.00 strike) or more conservative ($130.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the AAPL Aug20th $135.00 strike put option @ $1.92, we would collect $192.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of AAPL stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $135.00.\nIf the stock stays above $135.00 between now and expiration (8/20/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.92.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $135.00 on expiration (8/20/21). Since we are obligated to buy the stock at $135.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $133.08 ($135.00 - $1.92).\nAll that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5-10% of your cash-secured put trades.\nBut when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Apple, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested in a new position in the stock. The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.4% over the next 42 days) with a margin-of-safety of 7.0%.\nAssuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could build 12%+ annualized income from Apple over the next 12 months (no bad for a stock that currently has a dividend yield under 1.0%).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156658908,"gmtCreate":1625220382004,"gmtModify":1633942424362,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087134899796190","authorIdStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon 🌕","listText":"To the moon 🌕","text":"To the moon 🌕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156658908","repostId":"1104728487","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104728487","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625189058,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104728487?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 09:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"When AAPL Traded Like A Meme Stock","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104728487","media":"thestreet","summary":"Apple is one of the most unlikely meme stock candidates. However, the Apple Maven thinks that AAPL b","content":"<p>Apple is one of the most unlikely meme stock candidates. However, the Apple Maven thinks that AAPL behaved like one in the third quarter of 2020. Here is what happened.</p>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;is nothing likea meme stock. The sheer size of the company, trading volume, institutional ownership and multi trillion-dollar market cap make it nearly impossible for a relatively small number of retail traders to sway the stock price in any meaningful way. But there are often exceptions to the rule.</p>\n<p>Today, the Apple Maven goes back to third calendar quarter of 2020 and revisits the few weeks when Apple stock traded like meme: up sharply and quickly, on heavy volume and arguably decoupled from business or macroeconomic fundamentals, followed by a sudden drop from the peak.</p>\n<p>AAPL stock: to the moon!</p>\n<p>Apple’s fiscal third quarter, reported in late July 2020, was quite impressive given the COVID-19 disruptions. The company managed to post revenue growth of nearly 11% and EPS of $2.58 that topped consensus by around 50 cents.</p>\n<p>But, despite the strong performance, it is still not easy to justify what happened to Apple stock in the month or so that followed the earnings release. Between July 31 and September 1, AAPL climbed a staggering 40%, the most in such a short period of time in the past ten years at least.</p>\n<p>Not even the recovery from the bottom of the COVID-19 bear was so fast and so furious. See chart below: a histogram of the one-month returns in Apple stock on any given day over the past decade.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4cd9696f95e583da810bdc74facce25\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: Distribution of one-month returns in AAPL, past decade.DM Martins Research</span></p>\n<p>The roots of the meme attack</p>\n<p>In my view, there is one key factor that explains the bullish reaction of August 2020. Along with financial results, Apple also announced its first stock split since 2014. One share of AAPL would become four on Monday, August 31. CEO Tim Cook explained the company’s decision:</p>\n<blockquote>\n “We are announcing a four for one split of Apple common stock to make our stock more accessible to a broader base of investors.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>While accessibility to retail investors is probably the main reason for splitting a stock, the rationale does not work as well in today’s trading environment. Nearly all major brokerage firms allow for fractional ownership, which means an investor can buy or sell less than one share of Apple stock.</p>\n<p>The only way that a stock split matters nowadays, in my view, is by catching the attention of investors who believe that the event unveils “a good deal”: two, or four, or ten shares for the price of one. This was probably the key factor driving AAPL share price to $134 from $106 in less than five weeks.</p>\n<p>The morning-after hangover</p>\n<p>Like any good “meme attack”, AAPL share price spike was followed by a sudden pullback.</p>\n<p>After reaching a peak of $134 in early September, the stock dropped below $107 only 12 trading days later. It entered correction territory, defined as a 10%-plus pullback from the peak, in a record four trading days. In fact, Apple was still priced below September 1 levels as recently as a couple of days ago.</p>\n<p>It is probably not a coincidence that Apple’s sharp fall from the top started to unfold within one or two days of the stock split finally being executed, when the “buzz” finally wore off – the telltale sign of a meme stock-like frenzy running its course.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>When AAPL Traded Like A Meme Stock</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhen AAPL Traded Like A Meme Stock\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-02 09:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/when-aapl-traded-like-a-meme-stock><strong>thestreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple is one of the most unlikely meme stock candidates. However, the Apple Maven thinks that AAPL behaved like one in the third quarter of 2020. Here is what happened.\nApple (AAPL) is nothing likea ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/when-aapl-traded-like-a-meme-stock\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/when-aapl-traded-like-a-meme-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104728487","content_text":"Apple is one of the most unlikely meme stock candidates. However, the Apple Maven thinks that AAPL behaved like one in the third quarter of 2020. Here is what happened.\nApple (AAPL) is nothing likea meme stock. The sheer size of the company, trading volume, institutional ownership and multi trillion-dollar market cap make it nearly impossible for a relatively small number of retail traders to sway the stock price in any meaningful way. But there are often exceptions to the rule.\nToday, the Apple Maven goes back to third calendar quarter of 2020 and revisits the few weeks when Apple stock traded like meme: up sharply and quickly, on heavy volume and arguably decoupled from business or macroeconomic fundamentals, followed by a sudden drop from the peak.\nAAPL stock: to the moon!\nApple’s fiscal third quarter, reported in late July 2020, was quite impressive given the COVID-19 disruptions. The company managed to post revenue growth of nearly 11% and EPS of $2.58 that topped consensus by around 50 cents.\nBut, despite the strong performance, it is still not easy to justify what happened to Apple stock in the month or so that followed the earnings release. Between July 31 and September 1, AAPL climbed a staggering 40%, the most in such a short period of time in the past ten years at least.\nNot even the recovery from the bottom of the COVID-19 bear was so fast and so furious. See chart below: a histogram of the one-month returns in Apple stock on any given day over the past decade.\nFigure 2: Distribution of one-month returns in AAPL, past decade.DM Martins Research\nThe roots of the meme attack\nIn my view, there is one key factor that explains the bullish reaction of August 2020. Along with financial results, Apple also announced its first stock split since 2014. One share of AAPL would become four on Monday, August 31. CEO Tim Cook explained the company’s decision:\n\n “We are announcing a four for one split of Apple common stock to make our stock more accessible to a broader base of investors.”\n\nWhile accessibility to retail investors is probably the main reason for splitting a stock, the rationale does not work as well in today’s trading environment. Nearly all major brokerage firms allow for fractional ownership, which means an investor can buy or sell less than one share of Apple stock.\nThe only way that a stock split matters nowadays, in my view, is by catching the attention of investors who believe that the event unveils “a good deal”: two, or four, or ten shares for the price of one. This was probably the key factor driving AAPL share price to $134 from $106 in less than five weeks.\nThe morning-after hangover\nLike any good “meme attack”, AAPL share price spike was followed by a sudden pullback.\nAfter reaching a peak of $134 in early September, the stock dropped below $107 only 12 trading days later. It entered correction territory, defined as a 10%-plus pullback from the peak, in a record four trading days. In fact, Apple was still priced below September 1 levels as recently as a couple of days ago.\nIt is probably not a coincidence that Apple’s sharp fall from the top started to unfold within one or two days of the stock split finally being executed, when the “buzz” finally wore off – the telltale sign of a meme stock-like frenzy running its course.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159477718,"gmtCreate":1624978680934,"gmtModify":1633946234449,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087134899796190","authorIdStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159477718","repostId":"1151394234","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":172292117,"gmtCreate":1626961630939,"gmtModify":1633769350510,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087134899796190","idStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip!","listText":"Buy the dip!","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172292117","repostId":"1175825882","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156658908,"gmtCreate":1625220382004,"gmtModify":1633942424362,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087134899796190","idStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon 🌕","listText":"To the moon 🌕","text":"To the moon 🌕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156658908","repostId":"1104728487","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144898149,"gmtCreate":1626274022381,"gmtModify":1633928362722,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087134899796190","idStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Up up and away","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Up up and away","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Up up and away","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e90302fe4e1102e8db63d62755f3a7","width":"1125","height":"2183"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144898149","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809486361,"gmtCreate":1627387286353,"gmtModify":1633765511869,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087134899796190","idStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continue flying!","listText":"Continue flying!","text":"Continue flying!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809486361","repostId":"1108884592","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159477718,"gmtCreate":1624978680934,"gmtModify":1633946234449,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087134899796190","idStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159477718","repostId":"1151394234","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146834295,"gmtCreate":1626065180517,"gmtModify":1633930474451,"author":{"id":"4087134899796190","authorId":"4087134899796190","name":"Imhy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087134899796190","idStr":"4087134899796190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"To the moon!","listText":"To the moon!","text":"To the moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146834295","repostId":"1155038838","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155038838","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626057810,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155038838?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 10:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: New Highs, But Now What?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155038838","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?There is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!AAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.Looking for more investing ideas like this one?Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More. So Apple Inc.  is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Apple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?</li>\n <li>There is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!</li>\n <li>AAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.</li>\n <li>Looking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More »</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24b65798f03c6f9376257bba2741e588\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"531\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</p>\n<p>So Apple Inc. (AAPL) is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.</p>\n<p>Market valuations, in general, are stretched, as stocks just notched the 2nd best first half of the year performance in history (up ~14%).</p>\n<p>Interest rates don't seem to know where they are going.</p>\n<p>Inflation is spiking (although many think this is \"transitory\").</p>\n<p>Unemployment is still stubbornly high.</p>\n<p>You get the picture... there's uncertainty.</p>\n<p>All that said, I could make a case for Apple to go either higher or lower over the short term... and there is one chart, in particular, that could dictate that!</p>\n<p><b>The Most Important Chart For Apple</b></p>\n<p>As much as we all like to talk about 5G rollouts and the growth of Apple's wearables segment, nothing will be more important to the stock over the next 12 months than what is in the chart below.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc8b9e7dd9a7a29241bc334872748b52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Yes, this is a chart of Apple's stock price vs. the 10 Year Treasury rate. We are at that point in the cycle, folks. Growth stocks are already starting to react to movements in rates... and even Apple has not been able to hide from it.</p>\n<p>The good and the bad of this is that if interest rates stay low (the good), Apple will likely continue to trend higher... but if rates spike (the bad), Apple will get crushed along with the rest of the growth stocks. Unfortunately, the consensus is that rates will certainly increase over the next 12-24 months. That said, the short-term is up in the air. So keep this chart on your radar.</p>\n<p><b>Introduction</b></p>\n<p>We primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfdd16ba25690201bcb1771ec8a557b9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"640\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Since cash-secured puts are short-term trades in nature (typically less than 60 days until maturity), our analysis certainly depends more on short-term catalysts and technical support levels, but we also like to be long-term neutral or bullish on the stock as well.</p>\n<p>Here is our typical framework for analysis (which is a good outline for the article):</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</li>\n <li>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</li>\n <li>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</li>\n <li>Downside Considerations</li>\n <li>Conclusion</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Apple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (MAC), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.</p>\n<p><i>(Source: YCharts)</i></p>\n<p>Long-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)</p>\n<p>In general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.</p>\n<p>That said, here is how Apple currently ranks across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (4), Safety (9), Value (3).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30644bfee0b070e2d9015bff11598f30\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"122\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Note that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).</i></p>\n<p><b>Dividend</b></p>\n<p>We all know that Apple has the potential to be the greatest dividend stock of all time...it just isn't ready yet! That said, the company has raised its dividend in each of the past 8 years and currently yields 0.61% with a really low payout ratio of 17.0%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee1e06934335af3e4f5201e9e7957e3\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"349\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year and 5-year compound annual growth rates of 6.0% and 9.9%, respectively. Basically, everything looks pretty good except for the yield!</p>\n<p><b>Safety</b></p>\n<p>Apple's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty (hence the Safety Rating of 9)! Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $5.17 per share in 2021 (a 58% increase over 2020). However, EPS is expected to stabilize in 2022 with projected EPS of $5.30.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9bfeb0d3855a566e05ec26e7af849a8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">That said, the company's balance sheet is also extremely strong with $69.8 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing an amazing return on invested capital of 141.5%!</p>\n<p>Apple's reasonable historical stock volatility, with a 5-year standard deviation of 29.4% and beta of 1.2, is also helping to maintain its high Safety Ranking.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>Apple currently carries a low rating of 3 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a premium (even on a forward basis) compared to its historical averages for price/sales, price/earnings, and EV/EBITDA. That said, the market has \"repriced\" Apple over the past few years as the company has transitioned from a hardware business to more of a services business. As such, historical valuations are not a good proxy or comparison for future valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83b3d7c6ac8daaf28bd3b7266725a04\" tg-width=\"564\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Despite having a really low dividend yield, Apple actually has a decent shareholder yield of 3.8%.<i>Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.</i></p>\n<p><b>Long-term View</b></p>\n<p>Based on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Neutral long-term perspective on Apple. As sales and earnings growth stabilize and slow post-pandemic, the catalyst for earnings surprises may be limited. In addition, the company's valuation feels full at current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Short-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)</b></p>\n<p>From a short-term perspective (especially as it is related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).</p>\n<p>As shown in the table below, our strike zone for Apple is currently $119.00-$133.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 8.5%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ac7007040b92ed0d32a8eb27c8620c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"164\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>As discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Apple ranks positively on a relative basis for Volatility/Risk (rating of 8). However, the stock just made a new 52-week high last Friday (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 8.5%).</p>\n<p>That said, AAPL also reports earnings within the next 30 days, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.</p>\n<p>As shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have three good levels of support to watch:</p>\n<ol>\n <li>50-day MA (~$130.00)</li>\n <li>200-day MA (~$126.00)</li>\n <li>Recent low in March 2021 (~$120.00)</li>\n</ol>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b4071baef483a8e8478deb78e45bb73\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Short-Term View</b></p>\n<p>There appears to be some decent technical support around our strike zone of $119.00-$133.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put in the strike zone if we can.</p>\n<p>Cash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)</p>\n<p>Ideally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.</p>\n<p>The three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Premium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%):</b>Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).<i>Assumes that the option is fully cash-secured.</i></li>\n <li><b>Margin-of-Safety %:</b>Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.</li>\n <li><b>Delta:</b>A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><i>Note that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.</i></p>\n<p><i>An investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance! The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.</i></p>\n<p>Now let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Apple. We are focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 8/20/21.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b192ce564ff2fe4aaaf8abf9f4c7542\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>We have highlighted 3 levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).</p>\n<p>Ideally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Average Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%</li>\n <li>Strike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)</li>\n <li>Delta &lt; 30</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option @ ~$1.92 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 7.0%, and a Delta of 22</b>.</p>\n<p><i>Again, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($140.00 strike) or more conservative ($130.00 strike) than the base trade.</i></p>\n<p><b>Downside Considerations</b></p>\n<p>Assuming we sold the AAPL Aug20th $135.00 strike put option @ $1.92, we would collect $192.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of AAPL stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $135.00.</p>\n<p>If the stock stays above $135.00 between now and expiration (8/20/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.92.</p>\n<p>However,<i>the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $135.00 on expiration (8/20/21). Since we are obligated to buy the stock at $135.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration)</i>. We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $133.08 ($135.00 - $1.92).</p>\n<p>All that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5-10% of your cash-secured put trades.</p>\n<p>But when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>Based on our long-term and short-term views on Apple, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested in a new position in the stock. The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.4% over the next 42 days) with a margin-of-safety of 7.0%.</p>\n<p>Assuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could build 12%+ annualized income from Apple over the next 12 months (no bad for a stock that currently has a dividend yield under 1.0%).</p>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: New Highs, But Now What?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: New Highs, But Now What?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 10:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nApple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?\nThere is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438692-apple-new-highs-but-now-what","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"1155038838","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple hit an all-time new high last Friday, but where do we go from here?\nThere is one chart in particular that every investor should be watching as it could dictate the stock's next move!\nAAPL has the potential to produce 12%+ annualized income with a decent margin of safety using the Triple Income Wheel strategy.\nLooking for more investing ideas like this one? Get them exclusively at Option Income Advisor.Learn More »\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nSo Apple Inc. (AAPL) is at a new high... again. But this time feels a little different.\nMarket valuations, in general, are stretched, as stocks just notched the 2nd best first half of the year performance in history (up ~14%).\nInterest rates don't seem to know where they are going.\nInflation is spiking (although many think this is \"transitory\").\nUnemployment is still stubbornly high.\nYou get the picture... there's uncertainty.\nAll that said, I could make a case for Apple to go either higher or lower over the short term... and there is one chart, in particular, that could dictate that!\nThe Most Important Chart For Apple\nAs much as we all like to talk about 5G rollouts and the growth of Apple's wearables segment, nothing will be more important to the stock over the next 12 months than what is in the chart below.\nYes, this is a chart of Apple's stock price vs. the 10 Year Treasury rate. We are at that point in the cycle, folks. Growth stocks are already starting to react to movements in rates... and even Apple has not been able to hide from it.\nThe good and the bad of this is that if interest rates stay low (the good), Apple will likely continue to trend higher... but if rates spike (the bad), Apple will get crushed along with the rest of the growth stocks. Unfortunately, the consensus is that rates will certainly increase over the next 12-24 months. That said, the short-term is up in the air. So keep this chart on your radar.\nIntroduction\nWe primarily trade an income strategy that we call the Triple Income Wheel, which starts with writing cash-secured puts on high-quality stocks that you would like to own at a lower price. We won't go into full detail here, but the diagram below is a good summary of the strategy.\n\nSince cash-secured puts are short-term trades in nature (typically less than 60 days until maturity), our analysis certainly depends more on short-term catalysts and technical support levels, but we also like to be long-term neutral or bullish on the stock as well.\nHere is our typical framework for analysis (which is a good outline for the article):\n\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nDownside Considerations\nConclusion\n\nApple designs a wide variety of consumer electronic devices, including smartphones (iPhone), tablets (iPad), PCs (MAC), smartwatches (Apple Watch), and TV boxes (Apple TV), among others. The iPhone makes up the majority of Apple’s total revenue. In addition, Apple offers its customers a variety of services such as Apple Music, iCloud, Apple Care, Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, Apple Card, and Apple Pay, among others. Apple's products run internally developed software and semiconductors, and the firm is well known for its integration of hardware, software, and services. Apple's products are distributed online as well as through company-owned stores and third-party retailers. The company generates roughly 40% of its revenue from the Americas, with the remainder earned internationally.\n(Source: YCharts)\nLong-Term Thesis (Dividend, Safety, Value)\nIn general, our high-level long-term investment thesis on a stock is more quantitative in nature than qualitative.\nThat said, here is how Apple currently ranks across our key long-term ranking measures: Dividend (4), Safety (9), Value (3).\n\nNote that our rankings are from 1 (lowest) to 10 (highest).\nDividend\nWe all know that Apple has the potential to be the greatest dividend stock of all time...it just isn't ready yet! That said, the company has raised its dividend in each of the past 8 years and currently yields 0.61% with a really low payout ratio of 17.0%.\n\nIn addition, the company has steadily been growing its annual payout, with 1-year and 5-year compound annual growth rates of 6.0% and 9.9%, respectively. Basically, everything looks pretty good except for the yield!\nSafety\nApple's historical sales and EPS growth charts have always been a thing of beauty (hence the Safety Rating of 9)! Although some sales were certainly pulled forward during the pandemic, the company is expected to earn $5.17 per share in 2021 (a 58% increase over 2020). However, EPS is expected to stabilize in 2022 with projected EPS of $5.30.\nThat said, the company's balance sheet is also extremely strong with $69.8 billion of cash/short-term investments and management is producing an amazing return on invested capital of 141.5%!\nApple's reasonable historical stock volatility, with a 5-year standard deviation of 29.4% and beta of 1.2, is also helping to maintain its high Safety Ranking.\nValuation\nApple currently carries a low rating of 3 for valuation. As shown in the table below, the company is trading at a premium (even on a forward basis) compared to its historical averages for price/sales, price/earnings, and EV/EBITDA. That said, the market has \"repriced\" Apple over the past few years as the company has transitioned from a hardware business to more of a services business. As such, historical valuations are not a good proxy or comparison for future valuations.\n\nDespite having a really low dividend yield, Apple actually has a decent shareholder yield of 3.8%.Note that shareholder yield is the combination of buyback yield and dividend yield.\nLong-term View\nBased on the data above and our various rankings, we have a Neutral long-term perspective on Apple. As sales and earnings growth stabilize and slow post-pandemic, the catalyst for earnings surprises may be limited. In addition, the company's valuation feels full at current levels.\nShort-Term Thesis (Strike Zone, EPS Risk, Technical Support)\nFrom a short-term perspective (especially as it is related to selling cash-secured puts), estimating a good \"strike zone\" is key to our analysis. Our strike zone takes into account (1) the stock's volatility, (2) recent performance (i.e., how much has it already pulled back from its recent highs), (3) near-term EPS risk, and (4) the overall volatility of the market (i.e., VIX level).\nAs shown in the table below, our strike zone for Apple is currently $119.00-$133.00, representing a required minimum margin of safety of 8.5%.\n\nAs discussed in the safety ranking analysis above, Apple ranks positively on a relative basis for Volatility/Risk (rating of 8). However, the stock just made a new 52-week high last Friday (so its Pullback Indicator of 2 has a negative effect on minimum required margin of safety, which is currently at 8.5%).\nThat said, AAPL also reports earnings within the next 30 days, so that will need to be on our radar for the option analysis.\nAs shown in the chart below, the stock is still in a very strong uptrend with its 50-day moving average (blue line) trading above its 200-day moving average (red line). We now have three good levels of support to watch:\n\n50-day MA (~$130.00)\n200-day MA (~$126.00)\nRecent low in March 2021 (~$120.00)\n\n\nShort-Term View\nThere appears to be some decent technical support around our strike zone of $119.00-$133.00, which obviously makes us feel relatively good about selling a cash-secured put in the strike zone if we can.\nCash-Secured Put Analysis (Premium Yield, Margin-of-Safety, Delta)\nIdeally, when we sell a cash-secured put and start the Triple Income Wheel process, our put is in our \"Strike Zone\" for that stock. In our opinion, that puts the odds of long-term success in our favor.\nThe three main data points we look at when analyzing a cash-secured put trade are:\n\nPremium Yield% (or Average Monthly Yield%):Measure of expected return on capital assuming that the option expires worthless (out-of-the-money).Assumes that the option is fully cash-secured.\nMargin-of-Safety %:Measure of downside protection or the percentage that the underlying stock could decline and would still allow you to break even on the option trade.\nDelta:A good proxy for the probability that the put option will finish in-the-money.\n\nNote that there is always a negative correlation between Premium Yield and Margin of Safety: The higher the Premium Yield for a given strike month, the lower the Margin of Safety.\nAn investor should always be honest with themselves about their risk tolerance! The Triple Income Wheel can be adapted to suit your needs.\nNow let's look at the cash-secured put analysis for Apple. We are focused on the August monthly contract that expires on 8/20/21.\n\nWe have highlighted 3 levels of trades based on various risk profiles: Aggressive (-A-), Base (-B-), and Conservative (-C-).\nIdeally, we like to stick with our target levels for our Base portfolio:\n\nAverage Monthly Yield % (AMY%): 1.0%-1.5%\nStrike price that is in the strike zone (i.e., margin of safety above the required minimum)\nDelta < 30\n\nThe AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option @ ~$1.92 meets all of our criteria with an AMY% of 1.0%, a Margin-of-Safety of 7.0%, and a Delta of 22.\nAgain, based on your risk tolerance, you could choose a strike price that is more aggressive ($140.00 strike) or more conservative ($130.00 strike) than the base trade.\nDownside Considerations\nAssuming we sold the AAPL Aug20th $135.00 strike put option @ $1.92, we would collect $192.00 of premium for each option contract sold. In return for this premium, we agree (and are obligated) to buy 100 shares of AAPL stock for each contract sold at the strike price of $135.00.\nIf the stock stays above $135.00 between now and expiration (8/20/21), the option expires worthless and we keep the premium of $1.92.\nHowever,the downside of this trade comes into play if the stock closes below $135.00 on expiration (8/20/21). Since we are obligated to buy the stock at $135.00, we would have a potential unrealized capital loss on our hands (depending on how low the stock closed on expiration). We do get to keep the premium either way though, so our breakeven cost basis would be $133.08 ($135.00 - $1.92).\nAll that said, when managing the Triple Income Wheel, you should expect to take assignment (buy the stock) on 5-10% of your cash-secured put trades.\nBut when this happens, we get to move to step 3 in the diagram above and sell some covered calls on our stock position to start the income flowing again and start mitigating our risk right away.\nConclusion\nBased on our long-term and short-term views on Apple, we believe that a cash-secured put strategy makes a lot of sense right now for investors interested in a new position in the stock. The AAPL Aug 20th $135.00 put option would generate an average monthly yield of 1.0% (or 1.4% over the next 42 days) with a margin-of-safety of 7.0%.\nAssuming you could continue to roll this position every 45-60 days with similar risk/reward parameters, you could build 12%+ annualized income from Apple over the next 12 months (no bad for a stock that currently has a dividend yield under 1.0%).","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":110,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}