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7 Reasons the Stock Market Could Crash in January
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1 Unstoppable Stock to Buy Before 2022
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However, Wall Street might be sad to see 2021 come to a close. The benchmark <b>S&P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has more than doubled up (+24%) its average annual total return of 11% (including dividends) over the past four decades, and it hasn't undergone a steeper correction than 5%. It's been a true running of the bulls.</p>\n<p>But as we turn the page on 2021, it's quite possible Wall Street could lose its luster. Below are seven reasons the stock market could crash in January.</p>\n<h2>1. Omicron supply chain issues (domestic and abroad)</h2>\n<p>The most obvious obstacle for the S&P 500 is the ongoing spread of coronavirus variants, of which omicron is now the most predominant in the United States. The issue is that there's no unified global approach as to how best to curtail omicron. Whereas some countries are now mandating vaccines, others are imposing few restrictions, if any.</p>\n<p>With a wide variance of mitigation measures being deployed, the single greatest risk to Wall Street is continued or brand-new supply chain issues. From tech and consumer goods to industrial companies, most sectors are at risk of operating shortfalls if global logistics continue to be tied into knots by the pandemic.</p>\n<h2>2. QE winding down</h2>\n<p>Another fairly obvious high-risk factor for Wall Street is the Federal Reserve going on the offensive against inflation. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 6.8% in November, which marked a 39-year high for inflation.</p>\n<p>Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the nation's central bank would expedite the winding down of its quantitative easing (QE) program. QE is the umbrella program responsible for buying long-term Treasury bonds (buying T-bonds pushes up their price and weighs down long-term yields) and mortgage-backed securities.</p>\n<p>Reduced bond buying should equate to higher borrowing rates, which in turn can slow the growth potential of previously fast-paced stocks.</p>\n<h2>3. Margin calls</h2>\n<p>Wall Street should also be deeply concerned about rapidly rising levels of margin debt, which is the amount of money that's been borrowed by institutions or investors <i>with interest</i> to purchase or short-sell securities.</p>\n<p>Over time, it's perfectly normal for the nominal amount of outstanding margin debt to climb. But since the March 2020 low, the amount of outstanding margin debt has come close to doubling, and now sits at nearly $919 billion, according to November data from the independent Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.</p>\n<p>There have only been three instances in the last 26 years where margin debt outstanding rose by at least 60% in a single year. It happened just months before the dot-com bubble burst, almost immediately ahead of the financial crisis, and in 2021. If stocks drift lower to begin the year, a margin-call wave could really accelerate things to the downside.</p>\n<h2>4. Sector rotation</h2>\n<p>Sometimes, the stock market dives for purely benign reasons. One such possibility is if we witness sector rotation in January. Sector rotation refers to investors moving money from one sector of the market to another.</p>\n<p>On the surface, you'd think a broad-based index like the S&P 500 wouldn't be fazed by sector rotation. But it's no secret that growth stocks in the technology and healthcare sectors have been primarily leading this rally from the March 2020 bear market bottom. Now that we're well past the one-year mark since this bottom, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see investors locking in some profits on companies with valuation premiums and migrating some of their cash to safer/value investments or dividend plays.</p>\n<p>If investors do begin to choose value and dividends over growth stocks, there's little question the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 will find itself under pressure.</p>\n<h2>5. Meme stock reversion</h2>\n<p>A fifth reason the stock market could crash in January is the potential for a dive in meme stocks, such as <b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b> and <b>GameStop</b>.</p>\n<p>Even though these are grossly overvalued companies that have become detached from their respectively poor operating performances, the Fed noted in its semiannual Financial Stability Report that near- and long-term risks exist with the way young and novice investors have been putting their money to work.</p>\n<p>In particular, the report highlights that households invested in these social-media-driven stocks tend to have more-leveraged balance sheets. If common sense prevails and these bubble-like stocks begin to deflate, these leveraged investors may have no choice but to retreat, leading to increased market volatility.</p>\n<h2>6. Valuation</h2>\n<p>Even though valuation is rarely ever enough, by itself, to send the S&P 500 screaming lower, historic precedents do suggest Wall Street may be in trouble come January.</p>\n<p>As of the closing bell on Dec. 21, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 39. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. Though the Shiller P/E multiple for the S&P 500 has risen a bit since the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, the current Shiller P/E is more than double its 151-year average of 16.9.</p>\n<p>What's far more worrisome is that the S&P 500 has declined at least 20% in each of the previous four instances when the Shiller P/E surpassed 30. Wall Street simply doesn't have a good track record of supporting extreme valuations for long periods of time.</p>\n<h2>7. History makes its presence felt</h2>\n<p>Lastly, investors can look to history as another reason to be concerned about the broader market.</p>\n<p>Since 1960, there have been nine bear market declines (20% or more) for the S&P 500. Following each of the previous eight bear market bottoms (i.e., not including the coronavirus crash), the S&P 500 underwent either one or two double-digit percentage declines in the subsequent 36 months. We're now 21 months removed from the March 2020 bear market low and haven't come close to a double-digit correction in the broad-market index.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that if a stock market crash or correction does occur in January, it would represent a fantastic buying opportunity for long-term investors. Just be aware that crashes and corrections are the price of admission to one of the world's greatest wealth creators.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Reasons the Stock Market Could Crash in January</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Reasons the Stock Market Could Crash in January\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-26 08:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/25/7-reasons-the-stock-market-could-crash-in-january/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In less than a week, we'll officially be ringing in a new year. However, Wall Street might be sad to see 2021 come to a close. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has more than doubled up (+24%) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/25/7-reasons-the-stock-market-could-crash-in-january/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/25/7-reasons-the-stock-market-could-crash-in-january/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2194711211","content_text":"In less than a week, we'll officially be ringing in a new year. However, Wall Street might be sad to see 2021 come to a close. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has more than doubled up (+24%) its average annual total return of 11% (including dividends) over the past four decades, and it hasn't undergone a steeper correction than 5%. It's been a true running of the bulls.\nBut as we turn the page on 2021, it's quite possible Wall Street could lose its luster. Below are seven reasons the stock market could crash in January.\n1. Omicron supply chain issues (domestic and abroad)\nThe most obvious obstacle for the S&P 500 is the ongoing spread of coronavirus variants, of which omicron is now the most predominant in the United States. The issue is that there's no unified global approach as to how best to curtail omicron. Whereas some countries are now mandating vaccines, others are imposing few restrictions, if any.\nWith a wide variance of mitigation measures being deployed, the single greatest risk to Wall Street is continued or brand-new supply chain issues. From tech and consumer goods to industrial companies, most sectors are at risk of operating shortfalls if global logistics continue to be tied into knots by the pandemic.\n2. QE winding down\nAnother fairly obvious high-risk factor for Wall Street is the Federal Reserve going on the offensive against inflation. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 6.8% in November, which marked a 39-year high for inflation.\nEarlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the nation's central bank would expedite the winding down of its quantitative easing (QE) program. QE is the umbrella program responsible for buying long-term Treasury bonds (buying T-bonds pushes up their price and weighs down long-term yields) and mortgage-backed securities.\nReduced bond buying should equate to higher borrowing rates, which in turn can slow the growth potential of previously fast-paced stocks.\n3. Margin calls\nWall Street should also be deeply concerned about rapidly rising levels of margin debt, which is the amount of money that's been borrowed by institutions or investors with interest to purchase or short-sell securities.\nOver time, it's perfectly normal for the nominal amount of outstanding margin debt to climb. But since the March 2020 low, the amount of outstanding margin debt has come close to doubling, and now sits at nearly $919 billion, according to November data from the independent Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.\nThere have only been three instances in the last 26 years where margin debt outstanding rose by at least 60% in a single year. It happened just months before the dot-com bubble burst, almost immediately ahead of the financial crisis, and in 2021. If stocks drift lower to begin the year, a margin-call wave could really accelerate things to the downside.\n4. Sector rotation\nSometimes, the stock market dives for purely benign reasons. One such possibility is if we witness sector rotation in January. Sector rotation refers to investors moving money from one sector of the market to another.\nOn the surface, you'd think a broad-based index like the S&P 500 wouldn't be fazed by sector rotation. But it's no secret that growth stocks in the technology and healthcare sectors have been primarily leading this rally from the March 2020 bear market bottom. Now that we're well past the one-year mark since this bottom, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see investors locking in some profits on companies with valuation premiums and migrating some of their cash to safer/value investments or dividend plays.\nIf investors do begin to choose value and dividends over growth stocks, there's little question the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 will find itself under pressure.\n5. Meme stock reversion\nA fifth reason the stock market could crash in January is the potential for a dive in meme stocks, such as AMC Entertainment Holdings and GameStop.\nEven though these are grossly overvalued companies that have become detached from their respectively poor operating performances, the Fed noted in its semiannual Financial Stability Report that near- and long-term risks exist with the way young and novice investors have been putting their money to work.\nIn particular, the report highlights that households invested in these social-media-driven stocks tend to have more-leveraged balance sheets. If common sense prevails and these bubble-like stocks begin to deflate, these leveraged investors may have no choice but to retreat, leading to increased market volatility.\n6. Valuation\nEven though valuation is rarely ever enough, by itself, to send the S&P 500 screaming lower, historic precedents do suggest Wall Street may be in trouble come January.\nAs of the closing bell on Dec. 21, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 39. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. Though the Shiller P/E multiple for the S&P 500 has risen a bit since the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, the current Shiller P/E is more than double its 151-year average of 16.9.\nWhat's far more worrisome is that the S&P 500 has declined at least 20% in each of the previous four instances when the Shiller P/E surpassed 30. Wall Street simply doesn't have a good track record of supporting extreme valuations for long periods of time.\n7. History makes its presence felt\nLastly, investors can look to history as another reason to be concerned about the broader market.\nSince 1960, there have been nine bear market declines (20% or more) for the S&P 500. Following each of the previous eight bear market bottoms (i.e., not including the coronavirus crash), the S&P 500 underwent either one or two double-digit percentage declines in the subsequent 36 months. We're now 21 months removed from the March 2020 bear market low and haven't come close to a double-digit correction in the broad-market index.\nKeep in mind that if a stock market crash or correction does occur in January, it would represent a fantastic buying opportunity for long-term investors. Just be aware that crashes and corrections are the price of admission to one of the world's greatest wealth creators.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699239209,"gmtCreate":1639804267663,"gmtModify":1639804267663,"author":{"id":"3586948138954500","authorId":"3586948138954500","name":"GraceC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699239209","repostId":"1122651573","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122651573","pubTimestamp":1639800058,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122651573?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"1 Unstoppable Stock to Buy Before 2022","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122651573","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Salesforce.com is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relati","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\"><b>Salesforce.com</b></a> is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relationship management (CRM) industry for eight consecutive years. As businesses continue to struggle with macroeconomic headwinds related labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, staying on good terms with customers will be crucial.</p>\n<p>It also includes tools for analytics, data integration, low-code application development. So it really is this end-to-end solution. The goal is to give businesses the tools they need to attract leads, convert those leads into paying customers, and then build lasting relationships with those customers.</p>\n<p>Additionally, Salesforce has this platform called Einstein, which is essentially an artificial intelligence layer that supercharges all of its other applications. For instance, Einstein help sales agents forecast conversion rates and prioritize the most promising leads, so it drives efficiency there. It helps commerce teams personalize the buyer experience and make relevant product recommendations on an e-commerce storefront. And I think that capacity for innovation is one of Salesforce's strongest assets.</p>\n<p>They were a pioneer in modern CRM. They were one of the first companies to deliver software from the cloud. They jumped on artificial intelligence quickly. Their platform even supports blockchain technology. They continue to stay at the cutting edge of these technologies. I think that's important. I mentioned in an earlier question, the CEO, Marc Benioff, he founded the company back in 1999. This would be a company where if Marc Benioff suddenly left, I would be concerned about Salesforce. If you were watching<i>Beat and Raise</i>show in the previous hour, the company actually named Bret Taylor a co-CEO. He will be working alongside Marc Benioff, and I think that's a great succession plan. Brian Withers and I were talking about that. It's good to see the company planning for the future.</p>\n<p>One of the reasons I really like Salesforce, and I think they could do well during the holiday season, is that their software is relevant across virtually every industry. Building those customer relationships is important no matter of what you're selling or what industry you're in. Maintaining a strong relationship with your customers is important. I think -- given the current macroeconomic headwinds with supply chain difficulties, and labor shortages, and inflation, all of those things that may be headwinds for consumers -- I think maintaining those relationships is even more important than it normally is. And Salesforce is the clear leader here. The company has 19.5% market share in the CRM space. That is more than the next four competitors combined. Just a real dominant company.</p>\n<p>I mentioned they have that innovative, founder-led management team. This is another company with a strong workplace culture. If you look at Glassdoor, 89% of employees would recommend the company to a friend, 96% approve of the CEO, Marc Benioff. I think that speaks very highly of the type of workplace environment they've created.</p>\n<p>The financial performance is consistently impressive. Over the past year -- this is through the second quarter, this does not include the results that Salesforce just released two hours ago --. but through the second quarter, the company's revenue was $23.5 billion, up 21%. They generated $5.5 billion in free cash flow; that was up 57%.</p>\n<p>Just to cap all that, Salesforce is, in terms of enterprise software companies, it is the fastest-growing enterprise software company in history. It was the first to reach $5 billion in annualized revenue. It was the first to reach $10 billion. It recently became the first to reach $20 billion, and Benioff has said the company will reach $50 billion, I believe, by 2026. If that happens on that timeline, it will also be the first company to achieve that milestone. It will be the fastest company to achieve that milestone. An enormous company, but I still think there's plenty of potential here for shareholders, and I certainly think the holiday season could be a short-term catalyst.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>1 Unstoppable Stock to Buy Before 2022</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n1 Unstoppable Stock to Buy Before 2022\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-18 12:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/17/1-unstoppable-stock-to-buy-before-2022/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Salesforce.com is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relationship management (CRM) industry for eight consecutive years. As businesses continue to struggle ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/17/1-unstoppable-stock-to-buy-before-2022/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/17/1-unstoppable-stock-to-buy-before-2022/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122651573","content_text":"Salesforce.com is one of the largest enterprise software companies, and it's led the customer relationship management (CRM) industry for eight consecutive years. As businesses continue to struggle with macroeconomic headwinds related labor shortages and supply chain disruptions, staying on good terms with customers will be crucial.\nIt also includes tools for analytics, data integration, low-code application development. So it really is this end-to-end solution. The goal is to give businesses the tools they need to attract leads, convert those leads into paying customers, and then build lasting relationships with those customers.\nAdditionally, Salesforce has this platform called Einstein, which is essentially an artificial intelligence layer that supercharges all of its other applications. For instance, Einstein help sales agents forecast conversion rates and prioritize the most promising leads, so it drives efficiency there. It helps commerce teams personalize the buyer experience and make relevant product recommendations on an e-commerce storefront. And I think that capacity for innovation is one of Salesforce's strongest assets.\nThey were a pioneer in modern CRM. They were one of the first companies to deliver software from the cloud. They jumped on artificial intelligence quickly. Their platform even supports blockchain technology. They continue to stay at the cutting edge of these technologies. I think that's important. I mentioned in an earlier question, the CEO, Marc Benioff, he founded the company back in 1999. This would be a company where if Marc Benioff suddenly left, I would be concerned about Salesforce. If you were watchingBeat and Raiseshow in the previous hour, the company actually named Bret Taylor a co-CEO. He will be working alongside Marc Benioff, and I think that's a great succession plan. Brian Withers and I were talking about that. It's good to see the company planning for the future.\nOne of the reasons I really like Salesforce, and I think they could do well during the holiday season, is that their software is relevant across virtually every industry. Building those customer relationships is important no matter of what you're selling or what industry you're in. Maintaining a strong relationship with your customers is important. I think -- given the current macroeconomic headwinds with supply chain difficulties, and labor shortages, and inflation, all of those things that may be headwinds for consumers -- I think maintaining those relationships is even more important than it normally is. And Salesforce is the clear leader here. The company has 19.5% market share in the CRM space. That is more than the next four competitors combined. Just a real dominant company.\nI mentioned they have that innovative, founder-led management team. This is another company with a strong workplace culture. If you look at Glassdoor, 89% of employees would recommend the company to a friend, 96% approve of the CEO, Marc Benioff. I think that speaks very highly of the type of workplace environment they've created.\nThe financial performance is consistently impressive. Over the past year -- this is through the second quarter, this does not include the results that Salesforce just released two hours ago --. but through the second quarter, the company's revenue was $23.5 billion, up 21%. They generated $5.5 billion in free cash flow; that was up 57%.\nJust to cap all that, Salesforce is, in terms of enterprise software companies, it is the fastest-growing enterprise software company in history. It was the first to reach $5 billion in annualized revenue. It was the first to reach $10 billion. It recently became the first to reach $20 billion, and Benioff has said the company will reach $50 billion, I believe, by 2026. If that happens on that timeline, it will also be the first company to achieve that milestone. It will be the fastest company to achieve that milestone. An enormous company, but I still think there's plenty of potential here for shareholders, and I certainly think the holiday season could be a short-term catalyst.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":698413230,"gmtCreate":1640490059828,"gmtModify":1640490059828,"author":{"id":"3586948138954500","authorId":"3586948138954500","name":"GraceC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"OK","listText":"OK","text":"OK","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698413230","repostId":"2194711211","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2194711211","pubTimestamp":1640479830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2194711211?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-26 08:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"7 Reasons the Stock Market Could Crash in January","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2194711211","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The new year could bring an end to what's been a nearly unstoppable 21-month rally in the S&P 500.","content":"<p>In less than a week, we'll officially be ringing in a new year. However, Wall Street might be sad to see 2021 come to a close. The benchmark <b>S&P 500</b> (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has more than doubled up (+24%) its average annual total return of 11% (including dividends) over the past four decades, and it hasn't undergone a steeper correction than 5%. It's been a true running of the bulls.</p>\n<p>But as we turn the page on 2021, it's quite possible Wall Street could lose its luster. Below are seven reasons the stock market could crash in January.</p>\n<h2>1. Omicron supply chain issues (domestic and abroad)</h2>\n<p>The most obvious obstacle for the S&P 500 is the ongoing spread of coronavirus variants, of which omicron is now the most predominant in the United States. The issue is that there's no unified global approach as to how best to curtail omicron. Whereas some countries are now mandating vaccines, others are imposing few restrictions, if any.</p>\n<p>With a wide variance of mitigation measures being deployed, the single greatest risk to Wall Street is continued or brand-new supply chain issues. From tech and consumer goods to industrial companies, most sectors are at risk of operating shortfalls if global logistics continue to be tied into knots by the pandemic.</p>\n<h2>2. QE winding down</h2>\n<p>Another fairly obvious high-risk factor for Wall Street is the Federal Reserve going on the offensive against inflation. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 6.8% in November, which marked a 39-year high for inflation.</p>\n<p>Earlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the nation's central bank would expedite the winding down of its quantitative easing (QE) program. QE is the umbrella program responsible for buying long-term Treasury bonds (buying T-bonds pushes up their price and weighs down long-term yields) and mortgage-backed securities.</p>\n<p>Reduced bond buying should equate to higher borrowing rates, which in turn can slow the growth potential of previously fast-paced stocks.</p>\n<h2>3. Margin calls</h2>\n<p>Wall Street should also be deeply concerned about rapidly rising levels of margin debt, which is the amount of money that's been borrowed by institutions or investors <i>with interest</i> to purchase or short-sell securities.</p>\n<p>Over time, it's perfectly normal for the nominal amount of outstanding margin debt to climb. But since the March 2020 low, the amount of outstanding margin debt has come close to doubling, and now sits at nearly $919 billion, according to November data from the independent Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.</p>\n<p>There have only been three instances in the last 26 years where margin debt outstanding rose by at least 60% in a single year. It happened just months before the dot-com bubble burst, almost immediately ahead of the financial crisis, and in 2021. If stocks drift lower to begin the year, a margin-call wave could really accelerate things to the downside.</p>\n<h2>4. Sector rotation</h2>\n<p>Sometimes, the stock market dives for purely benign reasons. One such possibility is if we witness sector rotation in January. Sector rotation refers to investors moving money from one sector of the market to another.</p>\n<p>On the surface, you'd think a broad-based index like the S&P 500 wouldn't be fazed by sector rotation. But it's no secret that growth stocks in the technology and healthcare sectors have been primarily leading this rally from the March 2020 bear market bottom. Now that we're well past the one-year mark since this bottom, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see investors locking in some profits on companies with valuation premiums and migrating some of their cash to safer/value investments or dividend plays.</p>\n<p>If investors do begin to choose value and dividends over growth stocks, there's little question the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 will find itself under pressure.</p>\n<h2>5. Meme stock reversion</h2>\n<p>A fifth reason the stock market could crash in January is the potential for a dive in meme stocks, such as <b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b> and <b>GameStop</b>.</p>\n<p>Even though these are grossly overvalued companies that have become detached from their respectively poor operating performances, the Fed noted in its semiannual Financial Stability Report that near- and long-term risks exist with the way young and novice investors have been putting their money to work.</p>\n<p>In particular, the report highlights that households invested in these social-media-driven stocks tend to have more-leveraged balance sheets. If common sense prevails and these bubble-like stocks begin to deflate, these leveraged investors may have no choice but to retreat, leading to increased market volatility.</p>\n<h2>6. Valuation</h2>\n<p>Even though valuation is rarely ever enough, by itself, to send the S&P 500 screaming lower, historic precedents do suggest Wall Street may be in trouble come January.</p>\n<p>As of the closing bell on Dec. 21, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 39. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. Though the Shiller P/E multiple for the S&P 500 has risen a bit since the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, the current Shiller P/E is more than double its 151-year average of 16.9.</p>\n<p>What's far more worrisome is that the S&P 500 has declined at least 20% in each of the previous four instances when the Shiller P/E surpassed 30. Wall Street simply doesn't have a good track record of supporting extreme valuations for long periods of time.</p>\n<h2>7. History makes its presence felt</h2>\n<p>Lastly, investors can look to history as another reason to be concerned about the broader market.</p>\n<p>Since 1960, there have been nine bear market declines (20% or more) for the S&P 500. Following each of the previous eight bear market bottoms (i.e., not including the coronavirus crash), the S&P 500 underwent either one or two double-digit percentage declines in the subsequent 36 months. We're now 21 months removed from the March 2020 bear market low and haven't come close to a double-digit correction in the broad-market index.</p>\n<p>Keep in mind that if a stock market crash or correction does occur in January, it would represent a fantastic buying opportunity for long-term investors. Just be aware that crashes and corrections are the price of admission to one of the world's greatest wealth creators.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>7 Reasons the Stock Market Could Crash in January</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n7 Reasons the Stock Market Could Crash in January\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-26 08:50 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/25/7-reasons-the-stock-market-could-crash-in-january/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In less than a week, we'll officially be ringing in a new year. However, Wall Street might be sad to see 2021 come to a close. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has more than doubled up (+24%) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/25/7-reasons-the-stock-market-could-crash-in-january/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SH":"标普500反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/25/7-reasons-the-stock-market-could-crash-in-january/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2194711211","content_text":"In less than a week, we'll officially be ringing in a new year. However, Wall Street might be sad to see 2021 come to a close. The benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has more than doubled up (+24%) its average annual total return of 11% (including dividends) over the past four decades, and it hasn't undergone a steeper correction than 5%. It's been a true running of the bulls.\nBut as we turn the page on 2021, it's quite possible Wall Street could lose its luster. Below are seven reasons the stock market could crash in January.\n1. Omicron supply chain issues (domestic and abroad)\nThe most obvious obstacle for the S&P 500 is the ongoing spread of coronavirus variants, of which omicron is now the most predominant in the United States. The issue is that there's no unified global approach as to how best to curtail omicron. Whereas some countries are now mandating vaccines, others are imposing few restrictions, if any.\nWith a wide variance of mitigation measures being deployed, the single greatest risk to Wall Street is continued or brand-new supply chain issues. From tech and consumer goods to industrial companies, most sectors are at risk of operating shortfalls if global logistics continue to be tied into knots by the pandemic.\n2. QE winding down\nAnother fairly obvious high-risk factor for Wall Street is the Federal Reserve going on the offensive against inflation. As a reminder, the Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 6.8% in November, which marked a 39-year high for inflation.\nEarlier this month, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the nation's central bank would expedite the winding down of its quantitative easing (QE) program. QE is the umbrella program responsible for buying long-term Treasury bonds (buying T-bonds pushes up their price and weighs down long-term yields) and mortgage-backed securities.\nReduced bond buying should equate to higher borrowing rates, which in turn can slow the growth potential of previously fast-paced stocks.\n3. Margin calls\nWall Street should also be deeply concerned about rapidly rising levels of margin debt, which is the amount of money that's been borrowed by institutions or investors with interest to purchase or short-sell securities.\nOver time, it's perfectly normal for the nominal amount of outstanding margin debt to climb. But since the March 2020 low, the amount of outstanding margin debt has come close to doubling, and now sits at nearly $919 billion, according to November data from the independent Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.\nThere have only been three instances in the last 26 years where margin debt outstanding rose by at least 60% in a single year. It happened just months before the dot-com bubble burst, almost immediately ahead of the financial crisis, and in 2021. If stocks drift lower to begin the year, a margin-call wave could really accelerate things to the downside.\n4. Sector rotation\nSometimes, the stock market dives for purely benign reasons. One such possibility is if we witness sector rotation in January. Sector rotation refers to investors moving money from one sector of the market to another.\nOn the surface, you'd think a broad-based index like the S&P 500 wouldn't be fazed by sector rotation. But it's no secret that growth stocks in the technology and healthcare sectors have been primarily leading this rally from the March 2020 bear market bottom. Now that we're well past the one-year mark since this bottom, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see investors locking in some profits on companies with valuation premiums and migrating some of their cash to safer/value investments or dividend plays.\nIf investors do begin to choose value and dividends over growth stocks, there's little question the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 will find itself under pressure.\n5. Meme stock reversion\nA fifth reason the stock market could crash in January is the potential for a dive in meme stocks, such as AMC Entertainment Holdings and GameStop.\nEven though these are grossly overvalued companies that have become detached from their respectively poor operating performances, the Fed noted in its semiannual Financial Stability Report that near- and long-term risks exist with the way young and novice investors have been putting their money to work.\nIn particular, the report highlights that households invested in these social-media-driven stocks tend to have more-leveraged balance sheets. If common sense prevails and these bubble-like stocks begin to deflate, these leveraged investors may have no choice but to retreat, leading to increased market volatility.\n6. Valuation\nEven though valuation is rarely ever enough, by itself, to send the S&P 500 screaming lower, historic precedents do suggest Wall Street may be in trouble come January.\nAs of the closing bell on Dec. 21, the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio was 39. The Shiller P/E takes into account inflation-adjusted earnings over the past 10 years. Though the Shiller P/E multiple for the S&P 500 has risen a bit since the advent of the internet in the mid-1990s, the current Shiller P/E is more than double its 151-year average of 16.9.\nWhat's far more worrisome is that the S&P 500 has declined at least 20% in each of the previous four instances when the Shiller P/E surpassed 30. Wall Street simply doesn't have a good track record of supporting extreme valuations for long periods of time.\n7. History makes its presence felt\nLastly, investors can look to history as another reason to be concerned about the broader market.\nSince 1960, there have been nine bear market declines (20% or more) for the S&P 500. Following each of the previous eight bear market bottoms (i.e., not including the coronavirus crash), the S&P 500 underwent either one or two double-digit percentage declines in the subsequent 36 months. We're now 21 months removed from the March 2020 bear market low and haven't come close to a double-digit correction in the broad-market index.\nKeep in mind that if a stock market crash or correction does occur in January, it would represent a fantastic buying opportunity for long-term investors. Just be aware that crashes and corrections are the price of admission to one of the world's greatest wealth creators.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":618,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699239209,"gmtCreate":1639804267663,"gmtModify":1639804267663,"author":{"id":"3586948138954500","authorId":"3586948138954500","name":"GraceC","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699239209","repostId":"1122651573","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}