可芯1976的个人主页 - 老虎社区

可芯1976

可芯1976

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2021-10-18

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$👍

2021-10-13

$新加坡航空公司(C6L.SI)$涨📈

2021-09-27

$比亚迪(002594)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-09-18

快涨涨📈

2021-09-18

$比亚迪(002594)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-09-12

$比亚迪(002594)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-09-03

再降就买进

2021-09-01

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$[流泪] [流泪]

2021-08-31

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪]

2021-08-30

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$涨涨涨

2021-08-29

等等等等等

2021-08-28

再跌才买，[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2021-08-28

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$[捂脸]

2021-08-27

之前4.9时就想买进

2021-08-27

$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$为什么这么低？

2021-07-27

👍赞

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-24

赞👍

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

【异动】在线教育股暴跌，新东方暴跌41%

2021-07-22

真棒

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-21

[微笑]

抱歉，原内容已删除

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15:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"【异动】在线教育股暴跌，新东方暴跌41%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159908922","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月23日，港股在线教育股集体暴跌，新东方暴跌41%，为历史最大单日跌幅。思考乐教育跌23%，卓越教育集团跌超16%。\n中金公司今日发布研报称，2021年5月21日，审议通过了《关于进一步减轻义务教育","content":"<p>7月23日，港股在线教育股集体暴跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>暴跌41%，为历史最大单日跌幅。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01769\">思考乐教育</a>跌23%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03978\">卓越教育集团</a>跌超16%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bd9093fb2080258646b55d0aecec48\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>中金公司今日发布研报称，2021年5月21日，审议通过了《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》。我们预计“双减”政策后续将成文发布。此次教培行业的规范管理严格程度史无前例。</p>\n<p>教育部于6月成立校外教育培训监管司，其职责包括拟订校外教育培训规范管理政策、组织实施校外教育培训综合治理等。我们认为对于教培的规范化管理将持续进行。我们认为，未来校内、校外将并行落实“双减”政策，即学校发挥教育主体功能，校外培训机构规范管理。</p>\n<p>中金称，由于本次政策具体实施力度不确定性较大，我们根据五种不同监管力度的场景假设进行估值测算。同时我们选择较为悲观的监管场景假设4 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n【异动】在线教育股暴跌，新东方暴跌41%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-23 15:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月23日，港股在线教育股集体暴跌，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>暴跌41%，为历史最大单日跌幅。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01769\">思考乐教育</a>跌23%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03978\">卓越教育集团</a>跌超16%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21bd9093fb2080258646b55d0aecec48\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>中金公司今日发布研报称，2021年5月21日，审议通过了《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》。我们预计“双减”政策后续将成文发布。此次教培行业的规范管理严格程度史无前例。</p>\n<p>教育部于6月成立校外教育培训监管司，其职责包括拟订校外教育培训规范管理政策、组织实施校外教育培训综合治理等。我们认为对于教培的规范化管理将持续进行。我们认为，未来校内、校外将并行落实“双减”政策，即学校发挥教育主体功能，校外培训机构规范管理。</p>\n<p>中金称，由于本次政策具体实施力度不确定性较大，我们根据五种不同监管力度的场景假设进行估值测算。同时我们选择较为悲观的监管场景假设4 (禁止周末1天及寒暑假)作为基准假设，对教培上市公司进行收入利润影响测算和目标价调整。我们下调新东方目标价53%至9.2美元，;下调好未来目标价67%至29美元，下调新东方在线目标价70%至12.2港元，</p>\n<p>此外，ADR中，下调新东方目标价53%至9.2美元，下调好未来目标价67%至29美元，下调有道目标价15%至29美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82362caba1384c0d03f1f3d1a209deae","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","09901":"新东方-S"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159908922","content_text":"7月23日，港股在线教育股集体暴跌，新东方暴跌41%，为历史最大单日跌幅。思考乐教育跌23%，卓越教育集团跌超16%。\n中金公司今日发布研报称，2021年5月21日，审议通过了《关于进一步减轻义务教育阶段学生作业负担和校外培训负担的意见》。我们预计“双减”政策后续将成文发布。此次教培行业的规范管理严格程度史无前例。\n教育部于6月成立校外教育培训监管司，其职责包括拟订校外教育培训规范管理政策、组织实施校外教育培训综合治理等。我们认为对于教培的规范化管理将持续进行。我们认为，未来校内、校外将并行落实“双减”政策，即学校发挥教育主体功能，校外培训机构规范管理。\n中金称，由于本次政策具体实施力度不确定性较大，我们根据五种不同监管力度的场景假设进行估值测算。同时我们选择较为悲观的监管场景假设4 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00:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"站在10年周期起点，Snap最高华尔街目标价已达110美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153987948","media":"金融界网站","summary":"在Snap公布了好于市场预期的财报后，多家投行发布研报上调其目标价，其中瑞信更是将其目标价从90美元上调至110美元，还称这可能是一个潜在的10年周期的初始阶段。　　财报显示，Snap Q2营收为9.82亿美元，同比增长116%；净亏损为1.52亿美元，同比收窄53%；摊薄后每股亏损0.10美元，上年同期每股亏损0.23美元。并将Snap的目标价从83美元上调至85美元，维持对该股的“增持”评级。","content":"<p>在Snap<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">$(SNAP)$</a>公布了好于市场预期的财报后，多家投行发布研报上调其目标价，其中瑞信更是将其目标价从90美元上调至110美元，还称这可能是一个潜在的10年周期的初始阶段。</p>\n<p>财报显示，Snap Q2营收为9.82亿美元，同比增长116%；净亏损为1.52亿美元，同比收窄53%；摊薄后每股亏损0.10美元，上年同期每股亏损0.23美元。</p>\n<p>第二季度日活跃用户数（DAU）为2.93亿，同比增长23%。预计2021年第三季度营收介于10.7亿美元至10.85亿美元之间，同比增长约58%至60%。</p>\n<p>投行KeyBanc分析师Justin Patterson将Snap目标价从80美元上调至88美元，并保持对该股的“增持”评级。Patterson表示，Snap第二季度的业绩增强了投资者的信心，认为该公司能够“弥补亏损”，并在中期维持约50%的增长。</p>\n<p>Piper Sandler分析师Thomas Champion认为，Snap的“一级增长故事仍在正轨上”。并将Snap的目标价从83美元上调至85美元，维持对该股的“增持”评级。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBS\">瑞银</a>将Snap的目标价从85美元上调至92美元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>将该公司的目标价从89美元上调至94美元；巴克莱则将该公司的目标价从75上调至81美元；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>将该公司的目标价从75美元上调至85美元。</p>","source":"jinrongjie_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>站在10年周期起点，Snap最高华尔街目标价已达110美元</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2021/07/24003833142455.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/082208e3c37780dd55878056410ffa43","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"http://usstock.jrj.com.cn/2021/07/24003833142455.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153987948","content_text":"在Snap$(SNAP)$公布了好于市场预期的财报后，多家投行发布研报上调其目标价，其中瑞信更是将其目标价从90美元上调至110美元，还称这可能是一个潜在的10年周期的初始阶段。\n财报显示，Snap Q2营收为9.82亿美元，同比增长116%；净亏损为1.52亿美元，同比收窄53%；摊薄后每股亏损0.10美元，上年同期每股亏损0.23美元。\n第二季度日活跃用户数（DAU）为2.93亿，同比增长23%。预计2021年第三季度营收介于10.7亿美元至10.85亿美元之间，同比增长约58%至60%。\n投行KeyBanc分析师Justin Patterson将Snap目标价从80美元上调至88美元，并保持对该股的“增持”评级。Patterson表示，Snap第二季度的业绩增强了投资者的信心，认为该公司能够“弥补亏损”，并在中期维持约50%的增长。\nPiper Sandler分析师Thomas Champion认为，Snap的“一级增长故事仍在正轨上”。并将Snap的目标价从83美元上调至85美元，维持对该股的“增持”评级。\n瑞银将Snap的目标价从85美元上调至92美元；摩根大通将该公司的目标价从89美元上调至94美元；巴克莱则将该公司的目标价从75上调至81美元；摩根士丹利将该公司的目标价从75美元上调至85美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818390226,"gmtCreate":1630374143665,"gmtModify":1704959300459,"author":{"id":"3586592229481546","authorId":"3586592229481546","name":"可芯1976","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d427c4a16aa58261bd69a7c31040cc0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ES3.SI\">$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$STI ETF(ES3.SI)$[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] 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22:30","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉和一巨头牵手，目标是解决电池扩产的“最大顾虑”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153674116","media":"上海证券报","summary":"特斯拉又“牵手”了一大巨头。\n澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓7月22日宣布，与特斯拉签署镍供应协议，必和必拓旗下的西部镍业（Nickel West）将为特斯拉提供作为电池制造原料的镍。\n对于具体的合作内容，","content":"<div>\n<p>特斯拉又“牵手”了一大巨头。\n澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓7月22日宣布，与特斯拉签署镍供应协议，必和必拓旗下的西部镍业（Nickel West）将为特斯拉提供作为电池制造原料的镍。\n对于具体的合作内容，必和必拓没有公开。\n镍是生产动力电池的重要原材料之一，主要应用于三元材料电池。中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据显示，2021年上半年，国内三元材料电池产量为36.9GWh，占总产量49.3%，同比累计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107222219457c23f505&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"shzqb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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West）将为特斯拉提供作为电池制造原料的镍。\n对于具体的合作内容，必和必拓没有公开。\n镍是生产动力电池的重要原材料之一，主要应用于三元材料电池。中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据显示，2021年上半年，国内三元材料电池产量为36.9GWh，占总产量49.3%，同比累计...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107222219457c23f505&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8350896f4f33c86bc28f200b67ab82b4","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107222219457c23f505&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153674116","content_text":"特斯拉又“牵手”了一大巨头。\n澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓7月22日宣布，与特斯拉签署镍供应协议，必和必拓旗下的西部镍业（Nickel West）将为特斯拉提供作为电池制造原料的镍。\n对于具体的合作内容，必和必拓没有公开。\n镍是生产动力电池的重要原材料之一，主要应用于三元材料电池。中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据显示，2021年上半年，国内三元材料电池产量为36.9GWh，占总产量49.3%，同比累计增长149.2%。\n随着三元材料电池产量快速增长，电池用镍需求日益旺盛。据上海有色网数据，上半年国内三元前驱体对镍需求量达到9.67万吨，同比增长153%。\n必和必拓首席商务官潘文怡（Vandita Pant）表示，据估计，电池制造对镍的需求在未来十年将增长五倍以上，主要用于支持世界日益增长的电动汽车市场需求。\n镍对特斯拉有多重要？特斯拉CEO马斯克此前曾多次表达对未来镍供应的担忧，他曾表态需要矿商生产更多的镍。\n当地时间今年2月25日，特斯拉CEO马斯克曾在社交媒体上表示，镍是特斯拉扩大锂电池产量的最大顾虑，并暗示“缺镍”导致特斯拉大规模运用磷酸铁锂电池路线。\n去年，马斯克还在二季度财报电话会议上对采矿业喊话：如果你们以环保的方式高效开采镍，特斯拉将给你们一份长期大合同。\n正如马斯克所暗示，由于对镍供给存在顾虑，特斯拉转而大规模运用磷酸铁锂电池。但至今磷酸铁锂能量密度低、里程短的问题仍没有有效解决。随着消费者对新能源汽车的高续航里程、轻量化的需求逐步提升，三元材料电池路线仍是无可替代的，这使镍资源保障问题日益受到这个行业的重视。\n而镍在电池中的主要作用在于提高能量密度，即电池所含的镍比例越高，电池所含电量也越高，反映到新能源汽车上就是续航能力越高。\n\n而从国际电池头部企业的动作来看，高镍三元电池路线将成为一大主流。\n2021年，宝马IX系列、大众ID系列、奔驰EQ系列等搭载高镍电池的新车型纷纷上市。在降成本和提升产品竞争力要求下，高镍三元路线日益获得业内认可，电池企业纷纷研发镍含量更高的下一代电池。\n中信期货认为，2025年全球新能源汽车市场三元材料电池占比将达到74%。根据未来三元材料高镍化的比例来估算，预计电池用镍需求量将达到27万吨，是2020年需求的将近4 倍。\n华泰期货认为，随着全球新能源汽车产量快速增长、三元电池高镍化进程推进，全球三元电池耗镍量持续攀升。2021年开始全球三元电池耗镍增量逐渐显著，对镍价逐步形成推动力量，成为镍消费格局改变的转折点。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176911131,"gmtCreate":1626853741723,"gmtModify":1631892517558,"author":{"id":"3586592229481546","authorId":"3586592229481546","name":"可芯1976","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d427c4a16aa58261bd69a7c31040cc0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176911131","repostId":"2153848611","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153848611","pubTimestamp":1626850645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153848611?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 14:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"洪灝：当前市场的两个焦点问题，其中应该已经明了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153848611","media":"金十数据","summary":"中国首席经济学家论坛理事洪灝认为，股市的高点很可能已经过去了，而大宗商品的牛市还远未结束。","content":"<p>本文来自首席经济学家论坛</p>\n<p><b>核心观点</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <ul>\n  <li><p><b>美股波动性或将回归。</b></p></li>\n  <li><p><b>随着上下游价差运行到历史高点开始回落，周期性板块见顶，我们认为再也不能像过去12个月这样闭着眼睛大胆进场买入周期板块了。</b></p></li>\n  <li><p><b>今年市场的高点很可能在2月份春节期间已经过去。</b></p></li>\n  <li><p><b>以前说没有盈利的公司很容易产生泡沫，现在的成长型公司的估值里蕴含着巨大的泡沫。</b></p></li>\n  <li><p><b>无论是国内还是国外，流动性最宽松的时候已经过去了。</b></p></li>\n  <li><p><b>当前，“周期价值”的均值回归过程已经基本完成，或许可以再往上跑一点，但是最容易赚的钱已经被赚走了。“非周期价值”，包括能源、公用事业、电信，医疗保健，这些传统的、时代感不强的非周期价值板块，其回归的过程还在继续。</b></p></li>\n  <li><p><b>我们处在第4次工业革命中，科技水平的提高，人们收入生活水平的改善，整个终端需求持续上升。这个时候对于大宗商品的需求增大，让大宗商品的长波不断往上走。</b></p></li>\n </ul>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>以下内容根据7月13日洪灝在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">交通银行</a>《2021年下半年中国宏观经济金融展望》会上的发言整理而成：</b></p>\n<p><b>区分两组概念</b></p>\n<p>去年年中在预测未来的行情时，我称之为“价值王者归来”。市场过去12个月的表现也验证了这一判断，去年6月到今年6月，是低估值的价值板块跑赢其他板块的市场。</p>\n<p>在展开对后市的讨论时，我认为有必要先理清概念。因为当前市场对于“周期和非周期”（周期和防御），“价值和成长”这两组概念存在误解。经常有人把周期看成价值，把非周期看成防御。</p>\n<p>在市场行业分类上，<b>“周期和非周期”是指：在经济周期波动的每一个阶段，无论经济上升还是在下降，一个行业或一个公司的盈利增长相对于经济周期运行非常敏感。</b>否则它就是一个防御性的、非周期性的公司或行业。因此，是否是周期行业，答案相对固定。“价值和成长”却是一个相对的定义。如果把市场按照估值高低简单分成两部分，把高估值的一半叫做高估值板块，低估值的叫价值板块。<b>把市场按照盈利增速高低分为两部分，高增速的叫做成长板块，低增速的叫价值板块。</b></p>\n<p>因为估值会随着盈利预期变化、股票价格变化而波动。因此用以上两种不同的切割的方法，在经济周期的不同阶段，切割出来的价值股票是不一样的。</p>\n<p><b>当前市场的两大焦点</b></p>\n<p>经过了12个月的经济复苏，当前市场的主要矛盾集中在了两大问题上：<b>周期板块与非周期板块谁将跑赢；成长板块与价值板块谁会表现更优。</b></p>\n<p>图表 1: 中国的 PPI-CPI 和央行资产负债表、十债收益率、人民币、恒指；</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7bf9e5f94498883c7ab03e1dda403b22\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67710d4b755a4df9aded41bb125ddf28\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03329\">交银国际</a></p>\n<p>回答这个问题，需要观测PPI与CPI的价差。我们认为，国内上游与下游价差（PPI减去CPI差值）在今年五六月份进入了历史性高点，其高度堪比2016年-2017年供给侧结构性改革主动去产能时期。</p>\n<p>PPI与CPI价差拉大的原因之一是大宗商品价格的上涨。受经济复苏提振，去年二季度以来，包括原油、铜、黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石等期货价格屡创新高。吨钢的利润达到1500元-2000元，钢厂开足马力生产。然而，上游的价格强势，并没有传导到下游，这拉开了PPI与CPI的价差。</p>\n<p><b>PPI与CPI的差值反映出终端需求回暖不及预期，这也意味着此轮经济复苏的基础并不坚实。</b>未来一段时间，如果上游价格持续强势，并转化为社会成本，进一步压缩社会需求，是需要极为重视的。此次央行降准的目的，或许也是希望能缓解这种矛盾。</p>\n<p>我们发现，如图1所示，上下游价差与央行资产负债表同比、人民币汇率走势以及股票市场表现息息相关。</p>\n<p>我国经济存在一个3-3.5年的周期。而这一轮经济复苏与以往不同，需求端并没有如期回暖。如果将上下游价差与大宗商品、十年期国债收益率进行比较，可以发现，此次上下游价差回到历史高点时，长端利率开始下行，且幅度很大。意味着，<b>经济增速放缓的概率或将超预期。</b></p>\n<p>虽然今年二季度以来，国内经济数据良好，出口保持强势。然而未来外需是否能保持强劲、人民币汇率强势是否影响出口竞争力，都有待观察。</p>\n<p>美国市场数据似乎也预示着经济复苏或将不及预期。通常经济复苏时，如果投资者对未来走势乐观，就会将大量资金从安全避险资产中转移到风险资产，这会推升风险资产价格，长端利率上行，收益率曲线趋于陡峭。</p>\n<p>图表 2: 美股回报率和美债收益率正在进入拐点</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc52b18e5033de11447ac9ac30119427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>在当前5%-6%的通胀水平下，投资者并不愿意忍受区区1.2个点的十年期国债收益。如果市场有机会，他们一定会追逐高于国债的收益。</p>\n<p>然而，当前市场数据显示，长端利率并没有如期上行，甚至美国垃圾债收益率为负。美国长债收益率迅速下行至1.3左右的水平，投资者趋于保守，倾向安全避险资产。在这样的市场环境中，股票市场的回报也将有限。虽然美股三大公司股价继续创新高，然而增速在放缓。</p>\n<p>如图2所示，标普500的年化收益率与美国十年期国债收益率在触及历史峰值后已经开始下行。<b>这预示着下半年，美联储将会有一个明显的避险动作</b>，假如美国国债因为通胀进一步走高而上升，美联储加息的概率增大，美联储提前缩减公开市场操作规模。这一事件足以让连涨18个月的美股回调20%。美股波动，也会波及到A股。</p>\n<p>图表 3: 周期性板块的相对表现与 PPI 和 CPI 的差值从峰值开始同步回落</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc04f8a62bf3b7aeb479d7c12e5d76ff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>那么，市场对于周期与非周期之争，是否有定论呢？市场价格往往提前反映宏观经济的结构变化。如图3的数据显示，上下游价差和周期性板块的相对表现息息相关。在上下游价格强势的时候，或者说上游强势复苏的时候，周期性板块将会表现非常好，这是过去12个月的市场情况。</p>\n<p>现在，无论是上下游价差，还是市场价格表现出来的市场结构性的变化，即周期性板块相对的表现进入了一个历史的高度。我们现在看到的整体的市场结构开始重新分化。</p>\n<p>市场通常认为，在利率低的时候，是成长股表现好的时候。因为市场利率低，折现率低。对于无法产生盈利、销售额、现金流的成长型的公司，使用终端估值（terminal value）进行折算时，由于利率低，估值就可以很高。以前说没有盈利的公司很容易产生泡沫，原因就在此。<b>现在的成长型公司的估值里蕴含着巨大的泡沫。</b></p>\n<p>但是，现在长端利率重新下行了，是不是意味着可以再次购买成长性板块？回答这个问题，需要弄明白此次利率下行反映的是什么。利率下行反应的是整个宏观经济环境流动性再次宽松吗？不是，因为无论是国内还是国外，最宽松的时候已经过去了。</p>\n<p>美联储的资产负债表达到8.25万亿美元，每天还在增长。从3.7万亿到8万亿仅用了一年时间。不知道发生什么事情，才会让美联储的表再翻一倍，但是如果从8万亿再翻一倍到16万亿的话，对于手持资产的人，尤其是挣取名义的资产回报的资产，比如说股票、债券，都将是一个非常巨大的折损，所以美联储继续疯狂扩表并不是一个好事。</p>\n<p>随着上下游价差运行到历史高点开始回落，周期性板块见顶，我们认为再也不能像过去12个月这样闭着眼睛大胆进场买入了。</p>\n<p><b>成长板块与价值板块表现如何</b></p>\n<p>如果把市场按照“周期与非周期”“成长与价值”切两刀，如图4形成4个象限：周期价值，周期成长、非周期价值和非周期成长。</p>\n<p>其中，周期价值和非周期价值的共同点是价值因子。</p>\n<p>众所周知，价值因子已经跑输多年。观察发现，价值板块（周期价值和非周期价值）已经开始均值回归，并且迅速回归到长期的均衡水平。当前，周期价值的均值回归过程已经基本完成，或许可以再往上跑一点，但是最容易赚的钱已经被赚走了。<b>“非周期价值”，包括能源、公用事业、电信、医疗保健，这些传统的、时代感不强的非周期价值板块，其回归的过程还在继续。</b></p>\n<p>图表 4: 中国成长/价值的相对表现与中国信贷周期；周期性和非周期性价值继续回升</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e66e325c0e960a2a4192913f14db566e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dd3fadf71701c147fb7f9be83014f37\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>图4是用中证的成长除以中证的价值而得，去年3月到去年11月份，成长板块表现出异常的收益率。</p>\n<p>伴随着国内信贷周期扩张，叠加上疫情隔离因素，产生了独特的市场环境，大家都坐在家里炒股票。成长板块大幅上升，远远跑赢价值板块。成长板块的相对收益达到了史无前例的高度。</p>\n<p>但是11月之后到现在，这个相对收益开始收敛，预计收敛的形态并没有结束。此外，当前对互联网大平台公司的监管，对科技板块平台公司产生下行压力还没有走完。以上是我对于市场短期的看法。</p>\n<p>图表5: 茅台的超额收益预示着市场今年高点已过</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021d7a28ea00f3d9af85d87a9c7b3973\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>如何来看全年市场的表现呢？我做了一个很有意思的实验。茅台股票的超额收益是一个非常简单直白的市场择时指标。过去十年，这个指标的高点对应了不同的市场高点。如2015年的6月、2018年1月、2019年12月、以及2021年2月。也就是今年春节之前，茅台的超额收益达到了一个非常极端的位置，同时伴随着市场指数的见顶。如果历史继续演绎的话，<b>相信今年的高点很可能在今年2月份已经过去了。</b></p>\n<p><b>价值回归</b></p>\n<p>图表6：大宗商品和全球价值/成长的长期上行趋势才刚刚开始</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a21d8faadd5c691d000f714bfb2a382\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"263\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>从去年6月份到现在，我们一直倡导价值投资。一个公司怎样产生价值？是依赖不断走低的利率来推升公司估值，还是公司的管理层通过多年的积累、投研，形成可靠的护城河？价值型的公司在利率下行的环境中可能跑输。但它仍然产生现金流。当利率抬升、通胀预期上升时，这些公司将会产生更多现金流，产生更好的回报。</p>\n<p>如果简单把上市公司按照估值贵不贵分成两部分，把最便宜的部分拿出来，算作价值板块。统计发现，去年6月大宗商品指数运行到长期低点时，无论国内国外，价值板块相对水平开始回升。<b>说明在整体价格水平走高的情况下，价值板块的公司仍然会产生价值。</b></p>\n<p>那么未来通胀的前景如何？价格绝对水平是否会持续走高呢？<b>今年下半年的通胀前景可能是收敛的，但未来3-5年通胀水平或将上行。</b>通胀反映的是价格的变化率，整体价格的绝对水平将持续回暖是比较确定的。也因此，大宗商品长期价格的运行趋势是非常确定的。价值板块相对于成长板块，所创造价值的机会和概率不断升高，这是长期的情况。</p>\n<p><b>大宗商品长期趋势</b></p>\n<p>图表7: 大宗商品的长波</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a552304f865bb356cdf4e5cfdea3b3af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：交银国际</p>\n<p>谈及大宗商品，我们最近做了细致的研究，把近400年的各类大宗商品的价格运行规律做了一个归结，形成了上图这条曲线，我称之为，大宗商品的长波。从1750年到现在，大宗商品经历了3.5个长波。每一次长波，其价格指数运行结构都非常类似，像一张拉满的弓准备放箭。每一次价格长波，都伴随了一次工业革命，而现在我们处在第4次工业革命里。</p>\n<p>当前提倡的新能源、新科技，其实都离不开大宗商品。能源的储存和传输，数据的处理和储存，需要比以往更多的原材料，对铜、银、稀土等的需求会更大。<b>有分析师说铜是新时期的原油，一点都不夸张，白银也是，黄金也是。</b></p>\n<p>我们处在第4次工业革命中，每一次长波拉弓放箭的时候，也会伴随着整体社会科技水平的提高。由于科技水平的提高，人们收入生活水平的改善，使得整个终端需求持续上升。这个时候对于大宗商品的需求增大，让大宗商品的长波不断地往上走。这是以后的长期情况。</p>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灝：当前市场的两个焦点问题，其中应该已经明了</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灝：当前市场的两个焦点问题，其中应该已经明了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-21 14:57 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=78062&type=news><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本文来自首席经济学家论坛\n核心观点\n\n\n美股波动性或将回归。\n随着上下游价差运行到历史高点开始回落，周期性板块见顶，我们认为再也不能像过去12个月这样闭着眼睛大胆进场买入周期板块了。\n今年市场的高点很可能在2月份春节期间已经过去。\n以前说没有盈利的公司很容易产生泡沫，现在的成长型公司的估值里蕴含着巨大的泡沫。\n无论是国内还是国外，流动性最宽松的时候已经过去了。\n当前，“周期价值”的均值回归过程已经...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=78062&type=news\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dc26bcd30a6145e9bcc2c6e0ddfa682","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=78062&type=news","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153848611","content_text":"本文来自首席经济学家论坛\n核心观点\n\n\n美股波动性或将回归。\n随着上下游价差运行到历史高点开始回落，周期性板块见顶，我们认为再也不能像过去12个月这样闭着眼睛大胆进场买入周期板块了。\n今年市场的高点很可能在2月份春节期间已经过去。\n以前说没有盈利的公司很容易产生泡沫，现在的成长型公司的估值里蕴含着巨大的泡沫。\n无论是国内还是国外，流动性最宽松的时候已经过去了。\n当前，“周期价值”的均值回归过程已经基本完成，或许可以再往上跑一点，但是最容易赚的钱已经被赚走了。“非周期价值”，包括能源、公用事业、电信，医疗保健，这些传统的、时代感不强的非周期价值板块，其回归的过程还在继续。\n我们处在第4次工业革命中，科技水平的提高，人们收入生活水平的改善，整个终端需求持续上升。这个时候对于大宗商品的需求增大，让大宗商品的长波不断往上走。\n\n\n以下内容根据7月13日洪灝在交通银行《2021年下半年中国宏观经济金融展望》会上的发言整理而成：\n区分两组概念\n去年年中在预测未来的行情时，我称之为“价值王者归来”。市场过去12个月的表现也验证了这一判断，去年6月到今年6月，是低估值的价值板块跑赢其他板块的市场。\n在展开对后市的讨论时，我认为有必要先理清概念。因为当前市场对于“周期和非周期”（周期和防御），“价值和成长”这两组概念存在误解。经常有人把周期看成价值，把非周期看成防御。\n在市场行业分类上，“周期和非周期”是指：在经济周期波动的每一个阶段，无论经济上升还是在下降，一个行业或一个公司的盈利增长相对于经济周期运行非常敏感。否则它就是一个防御性的、非周期性的公司或行业。因此，是否是周期行业，答案相对固定。“价值和成长”却是一个相对的定义。如果把市场按照估值高低简单分成两部分，把高估值的一半叫做高估值板块，低估值的叫价值板块。把市场按照盈利增速高低分为两部分，高增速的叫做成长板块，低增速的叫价值板块。\n因为估值会随着盈利预期变化、股票价格变化而波动。因此用以上两种不同的切割的方法，在经济周期的不同阶段，切割出来的价值股票是不一样的。\n当前市场的两大焦点\n经过了12个月的经济复苏，当前市场的主要矛盾集中在了两大问题上：周期板块与非周期板块谁将跑赢；成长板块与价值板块谁会表现更优。\n图表 1: 中国的 PPI-CPI 和央行资产负债表、十债收益率、人民币、恒指；\n\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n回答这个问题，需要观测PPI与CPI的价差。我们认为，国内上游与下游价差（PPI减去CPI差值）在今年五六月份进入了历史性高点，其高度堪比2016年-2017年供给侧结构性改革主动去产能时期。\nPPI与CPI价差拉大的原因之一是大宗商品价格的上涨。受经济复苏提振，去年二季度以来，包括原油、铜、黄金、螺纹钢、铁矿石等期货价格屡创新高。吨钢的利润达到1500元-2000元，钢厂开足马力生产。然而，上游的价格强势，并没有传导到下游，这拉开了PPI与CPI的价差。\nPPI与CPI的差值反映出终端需求回暖不及预期，这也意味着此轮经济复苏的基础并不坚实。未来一段时间，如果上游价格持续强势，并转化为社会成本，进一步压缩社会需求，是需要极为重视的。此次央行降准的目的，或许也是希望能缓解这种矛盾。\n我们发现，如图1所示，上下游价差与央行资产负债表同比、人民币汇率走势以及股票市场表现息息相关。\n我国经济存在一个3-3.5年的周期。而这一轮经济复苏与以往不同，需求端并没有如期回暖。如果将上下游价差与大宗商品、十年期国债收益率进行比较，可以发现，此次上下游价差回到历史高点时，长端利率开始下行，且幅度很大。意味着，经济增速放缓的概率或将超预期。\n虽然今年二季度以来，国内经济数据良好，出口保持强势。然而未来外需是否能保持强劲、人民币汇率强势是否影响出口竞争力，都有待观察。\n美国市场数据似乎也预示着经济复苏或将不及预期。通常经济复苏时，如果投资者对未来走势乐观，就会将大量资金从安全避险资产中转移到风险资产，这会推升风险资产价格，长端利率上行，收益率曲线趋于陡峭。\n图表 2: 美股回报率和美债收益率正在进入拐点\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n在当前5%-6%的通胀水平下，投资者并不愿意忍受区区1.2个点的十年期国债收益。如果市场有机会，他们一定会追逐高于国债的收益。\n然而，当前市场数据显示，长端利率并没有如期上行，甚至美国垃圾债收益率为负。美国长债收益率迅速下行至1.3左右的水平，投资者趋于保守，倾向安全避险资产。在这样的市场环境中，股票市场的回报也将有限。虽然美股三大公司股价继续创新高，然而增速在放缓。\n如图2所示，标普500的年化收益率与美国十年期国债收益率在触及历史峰值后已经开始下行。这预示着下半年，美联储将会有一个明显的避险动作，假如美国国债因为通胀进一步走高而上升，美联储加息的概率增大，美联储提前缩减公开市场操作规模。这一事件足以让连涨18个月的美股回调20%。美股波动，也会波及到A股。\n图表 3: 周期性板块的相对表现与 PPI 和 CPI 的差值从峰值开始同步回落\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n那么，市场对于周期与非周期之争，是否有定论呢？市场价格往往提前反映宏观经济的结构变化。如图3的数据显示，上下游价差和周期性板块的相对表现息息相关。在上下游价格强势的时候，或者说上游强势复苏的时候，周期性板块将会表现非常好，这是过去12个月的市场情况。\n现在，无论是上下游价差，还是市场价格表现出来的市场结构性的变化，即周期性板块相对的表现进入了一个历史的高度。我们现在看到的整体的市场结构开始重新分化。\n市场通常认为，在利率低的时候，是成长股表现好的时候。因为市场利率低，折现率低。对于无法产生盈利、销售额、现金流的成长型的公司，使用终端估值（terminal value）进行折算时，由于利率低，估值就可以很高。以前说没有盈利的公司很容易产生泡沫，原因就在此。现在的成长型公司的估值里蕴含着巨大的泡沫。\n但是，现在长端利率重新下行了，是不是意味着可以再次购买成长性板块？回答这个问题，需要弄明白此次利率下行反映的是什么。利率下行反应的是整个宏观经济环境流动性再次宽松吗？不是，因为无论是国内还是国外，最宽松的时候已经过去了。\n美联储的资产负债表达到8.25万亿美元，每天还在增长。从3.7万亿到8万亿仅用了一年时间。不知道发生什么事情，才会让美联储的表再翻一倍，但是如果从8万亿再翻一倍到16万亿的话，对于手持资产的人，尤其是挣取名义的资产回报的资产，比如说股票、债券，都将是一个非常巨大的折损，所以美联储继续疯狂扩表并不是一个好事。\n随着上下游价差运行到历史高点开始回落，周期性板块见顶，我们认为再也不能像过去12个月这样闭着眼睛大胆进场买入了。\n成长板块与价值板块表现如何\n如果把市场按照“周期与非周期”“成长与价值”切两刀，如图4形成4个象限：周期价值，周期成长、非周期价值和非周期成长。\n其中，周期价值和非周期价值的共同点是价值因子。\n众所周知，价值因子已经跑输多年。观察发现，价值板块（周期价值和非周期价值）已经开始均值回归，并且迅速回归到长期的均衡水平。当前，周期价值的均值回归过程已经基本完成，或许可以再往上跑一点，但是最容易赚的钱已经被赚走了。“非周期价值”，包括能源、公用事业、电信、医疗保健，这些传统的、时代感不强的非周期价值板块，其回归的过程还在继续。\n图表 4: 中国成长/价值的相对表现与中国信贷周期；周期性和非周期性价值继续回升\n\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n图4是用中证的成长除以中证的价值而得，去年3月到去年11月份，成长板块表现出异常的收益率。\n伴随着国内信贷周期扩张，叠加上疫情隔离因素，产生了独特的市场环境，大家都坐在家里炒股票。成长板块大幅上升，远远跑赢价值板块。成长板块的相对收益达到了史无前例的高度。\n但是11月之后到现在，这个相对收益开始收敛，预计收敛的形态并没有结束。此外，当前对互联网大平台公司的监管，对科技板块平台公司产生下行压力还没有走完。以上是我对于市场短期的看法。\n图表5: 茅台的超额收益预示着市场今年高点已过\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n如何来看全年市场的表现呢？我做了一个很有意思的实验。茅台股票的超额收益是一个非常简单直白的市场择时指标。过去十年，这个指标的高点对应了不同的市场高点。如2015年的6月、2018年1月、2019年12月、以及2021年2月。也就是今年春节之前，茅台的超额收益达到了一个非常极端的位置，同时伴随着市场指数的见顶。如果历史继续演绎的话，相信今年的高点很可能在今年2月份已经过去了。\n价值回归\n图表6：大宗商品和全球价值/成长的长期上行趋势才刚刚开始\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n从去年6月份到现在，我们一直倡导价值投资。一个公司怎样产生价值？是依赖不断走低的利率来推升公司估值，还是公司的管理层通过多年的积累、投研，形成可靠的护城河？价值型的公司在利率下行的环境中可能跑输。但它仍然产生现金流。当利率抬升、通胀预期上升时，这些公司将会产生更多现金流，产生更好的回报。\n如果简单把上市公司按照估值贵不贵分成两部分，把最便宜的部分拿出来，算作价值板块。统计发现，去年6月大宗商品指数运行到长期低点时，无论国内国外，价值板块相对水平开始回升。说明在整体价格水平走高的情况下，价值板块的公司仍然会产生价值。\n那么未来通胀的前景如何？价格绝对水平是否会持续走高呢？今年下半年的通胀前景可能是收敛的，但未来3-5年通胀水平或将上行。通胀反映的是价格的变化率，整体价格的绝对水平将持续回暖是比较确定的。也因此，大宗商品长期价格的运行趋势是非常确定的。价值板块相对于成长板块，所创造价值的机会和概率不断升高，这是长期的情况。\n大宗商品长期趋势\n图表7: 大宗商品的长波\n\n资料来源：交银国际\n谈及大宗商品，我们最近做了细致的研究，把近400年的各类大宗商品的价格运行规律做了一个归结，形成了上图这条曲线，我称之为，大宗商品的长波。从1750年到现在，大宗商品经历了3.5个长波。每一次长波，其价格指数运行结构都非常类似，像一张拉满的弓准备放箭。每一次价格长波，都伴随了一次工业革命，而现在我们处在第4次工业革命里。\n当前提倡的新能源、新科技，其实都离不开大宗商品。能源的储存和传输，数据的处理和储存，需要比以往更多的原材料，对铜、银、稀土等的需求会更大。有分析师说铜是新时期的原油，一点都不夸张，白银也是，黄金也是。\n我们处在第4次工业革命中，每一次长波拉弓放箭的时候，也会伴随着整体社会科技水平的提高。由于科技水平的提高，人们收入生活水平的改善，使得整个终端需求持续上升。这个时候对于大宗商品的需求增大，让大宗商品的长波不断地往上走。这是以后的长期情况。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}