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ann卍8187
2021-06-15
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08:37","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"中信证券：下半年淡化周期思维，布局“中道成长”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105299932","media":" 微思策略","summary":"A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。","content":"<p><b>A股市场：帆起逐浪高</b></p>\n<p>A股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。</p>\n<p>预计下半年A股净流入资金规模将达到2200亿元，其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。</p>\n<p>配置上，建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配消费。</p>\n<p><b>主题策略：布局中道成长，隐形冠军之争</b></p>\n<p>随着估值体系从DCF向PEG切换，业绩增长弹性较大、估值相对较低的“中道成长”将更具投资价值，以创业板、中证500为代表。</p>\n<p>在此背景下，赛道景气上行的能源安全主题、国防机弹主题、数字人民币主题等方向上的隐形冠军有望成为下半年首选品种。重点关注以下个股：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a35ee4c764da1199f47c2f67b6558a52\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b> 消费产业：新品类、新品牌、新渠道</b></p>\n<p>建议积极持续配置化妆品、医美、免税、运动服饰、新型烟草等品类爆发机会，即好赛道。</p>\n<p>2021年下半年消费产业推荐组合：美团-W、拼多多、华熙生物、贵州茅台、五粮液、欧派家居、首旅酒店、蒙牛乳业、华润啤酒、中国中免、思摩尔国际、晨光文具、海大集团、安踏体育、稳健医疗、视源股份、丸美股份、绝味食品、唯品会、中宠股份。</p>\n<p><b>科技产业：从To C到To B：数字化转型加速</b></p>\n<p>建议重点关注的领域包括：数字化基础设施、软件SaaS、产业互联网和软件开发外包、AIoT和智能汽车、半导体、互联网等。</p>\n<p>具体公司包括：A股：中国联通、金山办公、深信服、恒玄科技、海康威视、工业富联、亿联网络、和而泰等。</p>\n<p><b>周期产业：周期景气延续，成长未来可期</b></p>\n<p>全球需求复苏进程仍在持续，叠加供应端长期增产潜力不足，大宗商品高景气度有望延续。</p>\n<p>在此背景下，我们推荐两条投资主线：</p>\n<p>1）低估值、兼具成长属性的周期龙头，推荐紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、赣锋锂业、宝钢股份、万华化学、宝丰能源、恒力石化、中国海洋石油、陕西煤业等；</p>\n<p>2）碳中和、材料国产替代战略下，推荐新材料板块已初具规模的龙头公司抚顺特钢、国瓷材料、雅克科技、硅宝科技等。</p>\n<p><b>银行业：内外部变量共振，兼具相对和绝对</b></p>\n<p>2021年下半年宏观金融条件料将稳定，银行基本面将保持修复，预计上市银行全年营收和净利润增速7.5%/8.1%。</p>\n<p>个股组合双主线：1）优质银行：招商银行、平安银行；2）修复银行：兴业银行、光大银行、南京银行、江苏银行。</p>\n<p><b>非银：选择“差异化”成长龙头</b></p>\n<p>建议精选具备“差异化”能力、公司治理完善的成长龙头。重点推荐：</p>\n<p>①港交所（商业模式壁垒最高、直接受益于股权大时代）、②友邦保险（拥有高端客户心智资源）、③中银航空租赁（全球第五大经营性飞机租赁公司）、④中金公司（资源禀赋与资本市场国际化机构化方向契合）、⑤华泰证券（数字化战略清晰）、⑥中国平安（具有银行账户优势、向中高端转型）、⑦中国太保（以负债优势补足服务短板、机制改善中）、⑧中国财险（车险综改最大受益者）。</p>\n<p><b>基础设施与房地产：投资高景气，服务再升级</b></p>\n<p>目前基建和房地产开发的较高景气度，难掩长景气周期的制约和调控因素的存在。但部分房地产公司可以凭借运营能力和组织架构调整突破盈利能力困局。</p>\n<p>推荐组合：万科A、龙湖集团、远大住工、东珠生态、华新水泥、旗滨集团、世茂服务、绿城服务、长江电力、川投能源、顺丰控股和中国国航。</p>\n<p><b>医疗健康产业：疫情后时代的强势复苏</b></p>\n<p>从2021年初开始，生物医药板块进入分化调整期，抱团度较高的高估值龙头个股开始逐渐分化，医药投资进入了百花齐放的新时期。</p>\n<p>建议关注：1）研发管线丰富的龙头药企恒瑞医药、复星医药等；2）直接受益创新审评和进口替代的国产中高端医疗器械龙头迈瑞医疗、大博医疗、安图生物和消费级医疗器械三诺生物等；3）“卖水者”逻辑下的药明康德、泰格医药、凯莱英、九洲药业、泰坦科技和山东药玻等；4）医疗服务及商业药店领域的爱尔眼科、上海医药、老百姓、益丰药房、大参林和一心堂等；5）精准医疗大发展下的金域医学、艾德生物、华大基因等；6）疫苗产业链上的智飞生物、康希诺、康泰生物、华兰生物等；7）消费升级趋势下的大健康消费龙头企业云南白药、片仔癀等。</p>\n<p><b> 汽车：智能化浪潮来临，关注格局重塑者</b></p>\n<p>未来5年替换周期的到来将为行业带来有效的需求增量，汽车行业正在智能电动的变革浪潮中迎来重启。</p>\n<p>重点关注：1）具有优秀产品定义能力和全栈自研能力的乘用车企业，如比亚迪、长城汽车、长安汽车等；2）符合智能化趋势、具备全球替代能力的优质中国零部件企业，如德赛西威、华阳集团、拓普集团、华域汽车、耐世特、伯特利、阿尔特等；3）产品不断进化升级的细分市场龙头：福耀玻璃、敏实集团、潍柴动力、中国重汽、八方股份、雅迪控股、小牛电动等。</p>\n<p><b>新能源汽车：全球景气共振向上，优质供给价值凸显</b></p>\n<p>中长期看，汽车电动化、智能化趋势不可逆转，我们判断2025年中国、欧洲的新能源汽车渗透率有望超过20%。</p>\n<p>推荐具备全球竞争力的新能源汽车供应链优质企业，尤其是特斯拉、大众MEB、LG化学、宁德时代供应链等。</p>\n<p>推荐具备全球竞争力的供应链优质企业：1）电池环节的宁德时代、比亚迪（A+H）、亿纬锂能、欣旺达、鹏辉能源、亿华通等；锂电材料的恩捷股份、德方纳米、璞泰来、新宙邦等；2）上游设备及锂资源：赣锋锂业、杭可科技、先导智能等；3）热管理供应链：三花智控（热管理）、银轮股份（热管理）、拓普集团。</p>\n<p><b>全球IDC：布局国内一线数据中心IDC资产</b></p>\n<p>考虑成长性因素调整后，目前国内IDC资产的性价比已较为突出，当前位置建议积极配置一线行业龙头，重点推荐万国数据、秦淮数据、数据港、世纪互联等。</p>\n<p><b>长线股池更新</b></p>\n<p>北向重仓前20股的最新名单已更新，本周股池还是没有变化，详情如下：</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cb9bd20d6b3fb65aadae9a99e6f93db\" tg-width=\"1050\" tg-height=\"1770\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e94d411fefbe5cf83e83e6c147031010\" tg-width=\"810\" 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class=\"title\">\n中信证券：下半年淡化周期思维，布局“中道成长”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-12 08:37 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vj5YP8FyBLrEA3ILKm4NkA><strong> 微思策略</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>A股市场：帆起逐浪高\nA股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。\n预计下半年A股净流入资金规模将达到2200亿元，其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。\n配置上，建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配消费。\n主题策略：布局中道成长，隐形冠军之争\n随着估值体系从DCF向PEG切换，业绩增长弹性较大、估值相对较低的“中道成长”将更具投资价值，以创业板、中证500为代表...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vj5YP8FyBLrEA3ILKm4NkA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718d9d0cee89dacb8ae3664167fe24e6","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/vj5YP8FyBLrEA3ILKm4NkA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105299932","content_text":"A股市场：帆起逐浪高\nA股下半年将进入慢涨“三部曲”中的共振上行期，且四季度空间更大。\n预计下半年A股净流入资金规模将达到2200亿元，其中人民币升值预期下，外资流入或继续超预期。\n配置上，建议淡化周期思维，三季度聚焦成长，四季度增配消费。\n主题策略：布局中道成长，隐形冠军之争\n随着估值体系从DCF向PEG切换，业绩增长弹性较大、估值相对较低的“中道成长”将更具投资价值，以创业板、中证500为代表。\n在此背景下，赛道景气上行的能源安全主题、国防机弹主题、数字人民币主题等方向上的隐形冠军有望成为下半年首选品种。重点关注以下个股：\n\n 消费产业：新品类、新品牌、新渠道\n建议积极持续配置化妆品、医美、免税、运动服饰、新型烟草等品类爆发机会，即好赛道。\n2021年下半年消费产业推荐组合：美团-W、拼多多、华熙生物、贵州茅台、五粮液、欧派家居、首旅酒店、蒙牛乳业、华润啤酒、中国中免、思摩尔国际、晨光文具、海大集团、安踏体育、稳健医疗、视源股份、丸美股份、绝味食品、唯品会、中宠股份。\n科技产业：从To C到To B：数字化转型加速\n建议重点关注的领域包括：数字化基础设施、软件SaaS、产业互联网和软件开发外包、AIoT和智能汽车、半导体、互联网等。\n具体公司包括：A股：中国联通、金山办公、深信服、恒玄科技、海康威视、工业富联、亿联网络、和而泰等。\n周期产业：周期景气延续，成长未来可期\n全球需求复苏进程仍在持续，叠加供应端长期增产潜力不足，大宗商品高景气度有望延续。\n在此背景下，我们推荐两条投资主线：\n1）低估值、兼具成长属性的周期龙头，推荐紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、赣锋锂业、宝钢股份、万华化学、宝丰能源、恒力石化、中国海洋石油、陕西煤业等；\n2）碳中和、材料国产替代战略下，推荐新材料板块已初具规模的龙头公司抚顺特钢、国瓷材料、雅克科技、硅宝科技等。\n银行业：内外部变量共振，兼具相对和绝对\n2021年下半年宏观金融条件料将稳定，银行基本面将保持修复，预计上市银行全年营收和净利润增速7.5%/8.1%。\n个股组合双主线：1）优质银行：招商银行、平安银行；2）修复银行：兴业银行、光大银行、南京银行、江苏银行。\n非银：选择“差异化”成长龙头\n建议精选具备“差异化”能力、公司治理完善的成长龙头。重点推荐：\n①港交所（商业模式壁垒最高、直接受益于股权大时代）、②友邦保险（拥有高端客户心智资源）、③中银航空租赁（全球第五大经营性飞机租赁公司）、④中金公司（资源禀赋与资本市场国际化机构化方向契合）、⑤华泰证券（数字化战略清晰）、⑥中国平安（具有银行账户优势、向中高端转型）、⑦中国太保（以负债优势补足服务短板、机制改善中）、⑧中国财险（车险综改最大受益者）。\n基础设施与房地产：投资高景气，服务再升级\n目前基建和房地产开发的较高景气度，难掩长景气周期的制约和调控因素的存在。但部分房地产公司可以凭借运营能力和组织架构调整突破盈利能力困局。\n推荐组合：万科A、龙湖集团、远大住工、东珠生态、华新水泥、旗滨集团、世茂服务、绿城服务、长江电力、川投能源、顺丰控股和中国国航。\n医疗健康产业：疫情后时代的强势复苏\n从2021年初开始，生物医药板块进入分化调整期，抱团度较高的高估值龙头个股开始逐渐分化，医药投资进入了百花齐放的新时期。\n建议关注：1）研发管线丰富的龙头药企恒瑞医药、复星医药等；2）直接受益创新审评和进口替代的国产中高端医疗器械龙头迈瑞医疗、大博医疗、安图生物和消费级医疗器械三诺生物等；3）“卖水者”逻辑下的药明康德、泰格医药、凯莱英、九洲药业、泰坦科技和山东药玻等；4）医疗服务及商业药店领域的爱尔眼科、上海医药、老百姓、益丰药房、大参林和一心堂等；5）精准医疗大发展下的金域医学、艾德生物、华大基因等；6）疫苗产业链上的智飞生物、康希诺、康泰生物、华兰生物等；7）消费升级趋势下的大健康消费龙头企业云南白药、片仔癀等。\n 汽车：智能化浪潮来临，关注格局重塑者\n未来5年替换周期的到来将为行业带来有效的需求增量，汽车行业正在智能电动的变革浪潮中迎来重启。\n重点关注：1）具有优秀产品定义能力和全栈自研能力的乘用车企业，如比亚迪、长城汽车、长安汽车等；2）符合智能化趋势、具备全球替代能力的优质中国零部件企业，如德赛西威、华阳集团、拓普集团、华域汽车、耐世特、伯特利、阿尔特等；3）产品不断进化升级的细分市场龙头：福耀玻璃、敏实集团、潍柴动力、中国重汽、八方股份、雅迪控股、小牛电动等。\n新能源汽车：全球景气共振向上，优质供给价值凸显\n中长期看，汽车电动化、智能化趋势不可逆转，我们判断2025年中国、欧洲的新能源汽车渗透率有望超过20%。\n推荐具备全球竞争力的新能源汽车供应链优质企业，尤其是特斯拉、大众MEB、LG化学、宁德时代供应链等。\n推荐具备全球竞争力的供应链优质企业：1）电池环节的宁德时代、比亚迪（A+H）、亿纬锂能、欣旺达、鹏辉能源、亿华通等；锂电材料的恩捷股份、德方纳米、璞泰来、新宙邦等；2）上游设备及锂资源：赣锋锂业、杭可科技、先导智能等；3）热管理供应链：三花智控（热管理）、银轮股份（热管理）、拓普集团。\n全球IDC：布局国内一线数据中心IDC资产\n考虑成长性因素调整后，目前国内IDC资产的性价比已较为突出，当前位置建议积极配置一线行业龙头，重点推荐万国数据、秦淮数据、数据港、世纪互联等。\n长线股池更新\n北向重仓前20股的最新名单已更新，本周股池还是没有变化，详情如下：","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182388808,"gmtCreate":1623554072004,"gmtModify":1634031808271,"author":{"id":"3586522097113603","authorId":"3586522097113603","name":"ann卍8187","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20b8737888005684af16a72b42a8767a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586522097113603","authorIdStr":"3586522097113603"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"？？","listText":"？？","text":"？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182388808","repostId":"1102453565","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":41,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
