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okane
2021-08-03
啊啊啊啊啊啊啊
okane
2021-08-03
啊啊啊啊啊
okane
2021-06-22
啊啊啊啊啊啊
@Ivan_甘灿荣:联储转“鹰”?听高盛抄底还是撤退?
okane
2021-06-16
啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊啊
okane
2021-06-12
啊啊啊啊啊啊~
okane
2021-06-11
aaaa aaa
okane
2021-06-09
$苹果(AAPL)$
aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
okane
2021-06-09
$苹果(AAPL)$
啊啊啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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上周美联储讲话“鹰派”,具体的那只鹰是指可能提前加息,票委们此前预期到2023年才开始加息,现在提高至2023年加息两次,甚至最早2022年开始加息。不管最终联储什么时候加息,反正市场“信”了,最直接表现为2年期美债收益率暴涨(价格是跌的),而长端10年期美债收益率是下跌的,可以简单理解为市场认为短期2年内会提高利率,而由于提高利率后打压通胀后不利于经济,在10年期的长周期内继续加息的概率就降低。 所以短期市场恐慌情绪,可以看2年期国债的变动作为参照,收益率不再暴涨则可以理解为市场对加息预期的反应完毕,后续走势就看各自品种的基本面了。 二、美股指 加息不利于商品价格上涨,打击传统行情的复苏,所以近期道指较纳指弱,这种情况可能持续一段时间。当然,这只是强弱转换之间的细节问题,若论大趋向,观点一直认为在当前点位,长期做多美股指收益率与风险不成正比,大幅调整后再重新观察。口头加息只是改变了行情节奏,并未构成实质性的利空,所以虽然我并不看好美股,但当前是否就是调整的起点,是存在疑问的。所以想做空的朋友,还是看20日均线来布置头寸。目前仍认为时间点在8月左右,目前阶段还是谨小慎微为好。 三、原油 油价短期看涨至80美元,这是多头高盛的观点。联储转“鹰”对原油价格影响最小,说明原油当前基本面十分强势。8月前是油市传统需求旺季,涨多少都有接盘。但这个时点过后基本面会转弱,届时要看实际需求情况。利空有三方面,一是OPEC+8月后的减产政策会否加大放松力度;二是伊核协议谈判,谈妥会直接增加2%的全球油市供应;三是美国页岩油产量增长,页岩油产量增长是非线性的,油价越涨增速最快(油企加","text":"上周金融市场应该是今年以来最波动的一周,除了原油波动较小外,其它品种无一幸免大幅波动,或下跌或跌完反弹,总之都被整得有些迷茫,那究竟后续如何处理为好?这里梳理一下我的观点。 一、美债看市场预期 上周美联储讲话“鹰派”,具体的那只鹰是指可能提前加息,票委们此前预期到2023年才开始加息,现在提高至2023年加息两次,甚至最早2022年开始加息。不管最终联储什么时候加息,反正市场“信”了,最直接表现为2年期美债收益率暴涨(价格是跌的),而长端10年期美债收益率是下跌的,可以简单理解为市场认为短期2年内会提高利率,而由于提高利率后打压通胀后不利于经济,在10年期的长周期内继续加息的概率就降低。 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