jazzjerry的个人主页 - 老虎社区

jazzjerry

jazzjerry

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IP属地：江西

16关注

4粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-12-23

价值粪池

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-30

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$经典大盘起飞你下跌

2021-09-27

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$连跌多久了还敢抄底吗？[呆住]

2021-09-15

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$垃圾

2021-09-10

周一跌

盘前异动：中概股喜迎反弹！财报发威一股涨超24%

2021-09-08

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$今晚跌

2021-08-30

$纳指三倍做多ETF(TQQQ)$还买什么个股，就买这个就完了印钞机啊[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷] [财迷]

2021-08-04

$万春药业(BYSI)$赌场是吧[哇塞]

2021-08-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$没有盈利的公司散户还是少碰比较好[财迷] [财迷]

2021-08-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$真害怕这红色镰刀突然就割到我

2021-08-03

忙着赚钱没时间陪小孩，然后小孩忙着玩游戏，然后就游戏该死是吧

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-30

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$阿里巴巴是被低估的与亚马逊不一样

2021-07-28

$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$还是你顶今晚冲回高点

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等“组团”涨超2%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超1%。</p>\n<p>Affirm Holdings盘前涨超24%，2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，月活用户超710万。</p>\n<p>Arburtus Biopharma(ABUS.US)盘前涨超11%，市场预计其赢得与Moderna专利争夺战。</p>\n<p>雾芯科技盘前跌2.7%，香港立法会吸烟修订条例草案委员会今日完成有关修例禁止加热烟及电子烟的审议工作，方案或将10月底前通过。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动：中概股喜迎反弹！财报发威一股涨超24%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head 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17:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <b>摘要:&nbsp;</b>\n <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等明星中概股集体反弹！2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，Affirm盘前涨超24%；雾芯科技下跌，香港或下月前通过禁电子烟条例。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>9月10日，美国三大股指期货上涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.58%；标普500指数期货涨0.46%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.37%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82141820362a61ed38ceb388f291fd\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">热门中概股盘前普遍反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等“组团”涨超2%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超1%。</p>\n<p>Affirm Holdings盘前涨超24%，2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，月活用户超710万。</p>\n<p>Arburtus Biopharma(ABUS.US)盘前涨超11%，市场预计其赢得与Moderna专利争夺战。</p>\n<p>雾芯科技盘前跌2.7%，香港立法会吸烟修订条例草案委员会今日完成有关修例禁止加热烟及电子烟的审议工作，方案或将10月底前通过。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎","IQ":"爱奇艺","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","RLX":"雾芯科技","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","WDH":"水滴","BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","VIPS":"唯品会","JD":"京东"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174772259","content_text":"摘要: \n阿里巴巴、京东、百度、拼多多等明星中概股集体反弹！2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，Affirm盘前涨超24%；雾芯科技下跌，香港或下月前通过禁电子烟条例。\n\n9月10日，美国三大股指期货上涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.58%；标普500指数期货涨0.46%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.37%。热门中概股盘前普遍反弹，阿里巴巴、水滴、滴滴、京东、百度、爱奇艺、唯品会、好未来、贝壳、新东方、拼多多等“组团”涨超2%；高途、知乎涨超3%，腾讯音乐、哔哩哔哩涨超1%。\nAffirm Holdings盘前涨超24%，2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，月活用户超710万。\nArburtus 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class=\"title\">\n腾讯推出游戏未保“双减双打”新措施\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-08-03 13:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>在刚刚结束的第19届中国国际数码互动娱乐展览会上，有关主管部门对全行业主动开展未成年保护工作、履行社会责任提出了更多希望与要求。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>对此高度重视。尽管从2017年开始，我们通过不断升级未成年保护措施，平均每天对580万个帐号进行登录和支付环节限制，但深感任重道远。为进一步加大保护力度，腾讯将从《王者荣耀》试点，逐步面向全线游戏推出“双减、双打、三提倡”的七条新举措。</p>\n<p>双减：</p>\n<p>1、减时长：将执行比政策要求更严厉的未成年用户在线时长限制，非节假日从1.5小时降低至1小时，节假日从3小时减到2小时。</p>\n<p>2、减充值：未满12周岁未成年人（“小学生”）禁止在游戏内消费。</p>\n<p>双打：</p>\n<p>1、打击身份冒用：针对未成年人冒充成年人游戏的情况，将原来的“零点巡查”升级为“全天巡查”，可疑账户全部重新认证。</p>\n<p>2、打击作弊：积极配合政策，打击用户通过加速器登陆及部分第三方平台买卖成年人帐号的行为。</p>\n<p>三倡议：</p>\n<p>1、倡议全行业进一步强化游戏防沉迷系统，控制未成年人游戏总时长。</p>\n<p>2、倡议深化对游戏适龄评定和实施机制的研究。</p>\n<p>3、倡议全行业讨论全面禁止未满12周岁小学生进入游戏的可行性。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b887d7aea1bbdecfb0d933de78111f\" tg-width=\"1113\" tg-height=\"1026\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","00700":"腾讯控股"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107663036","content_text":"在刚刚结束的第19届中国国际数码互动娱乐展览会上，有关主管部门对全行业主动开展未成年保护工作、履行社会责任提出了更多希望与要求。\n腾讯对此高度重视。尽管从2017年开始，我们通过不断升级未成年保护措施，平均每天对580万个帐号进行登录和支付环节限制，但深感任重道远。为进一步加大保护力度，腾讯将从《王者荣耀》试点，逐步面向全线游戏推出“双减、双打、三提倡”的七条新举措。\n双减：\n1、减时长：将执行比政策要求更严厉的未成年用户在线时长限制，非节假日从1.5小时降低至1小时，节假日从3小时减到2小时。\n2、减充值：未满12周岁未成年人（“小学生”）禁止在游戏内消费。\n双打：\n1、打击身份冒用：针对未成年人冒充成年人游戏的情况，将原来的“零点巡查”升级为“全天巡查”，可疑账户全部重新认证。\n2、打击作弊：积极配合政策，打击用户通过加速器登陆及部分第三方平台买卖成年人帐号的行为。\n三倡议：\n1、倡议全行业进一步强化游戏防沉迷系统，控制未成年人游戏总时长。\n2、倡议深化对游戏适龄评定和实施机制的研究。\n3、倡议全行业讨论全面禁止未满12周岁小学生进入游戏的可行性。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691474004,"gmtCreate":1640235017398,"gmtModify":1640235017398,"author":{"id":"3585952465683287","authorId":"3585952465683287","name":"jazzjerry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcc578110bbeffa4db52bd61f905a90","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585952465683287","authorIdStr":"3585952465683287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"价值粪池","listText":"价值粪池","text":"价值粪池","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691474004","repostId":"1187429259","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1187429259","pubTimestamp":1640229225,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187429259?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:13","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"洪灝：香港市场开始显示深度配置价值","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187429259","media":"格隆汇","summary":"在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港市场已跌入深度价值洼地。","content":"<p>作者：洪灝&nbsp;交银国际董事总经理兼首席策略师</p>\n<p>为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。</p>\n<p>中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(<b>图表1</b>)。</p>\n<p>有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势。诚然——头部互联网平台公司大都奔赴海外上市，它们的弱势在一定程度上令跌跌不休的恒指雪上加霜。其实，在我们去年11月发布2021年展望报告时，我们曾直言不讳地将当时的中国科技公司的估值称作“泡沫”，并敦促投资者避而远之转而做多大宗商品。但又如何解释那些在香港上市的国内消费和医疗板块龙头企业——它们并未受监管风暴波及却同样表现欠佳。因此，我们认为强监管只道出了部分真相。</p>\n<p><b>图表1：面对中国经济减速，恒指的反应首当其冲，而上证独善其身。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c2146759c657b1339b7356cdd297f4\" tg-width=\"1234\" tg-height=\"446\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>2021年，中国经济最引人注目的特征之一，是其表现强劲、势头不减的出口，以及中国经常账户盈余回升到2007年底以来的历史高位——那时候正值中国“入世”后出口高歌猛进的盛世。在新冠肺炎疫情余孽不减、肆虐环球经济之际，中国出口的强势为中国经济提供了源源不竭的支撑和动力，而其势头之持久足以令我们熟知的每一位经济学家都倍感惊异。</p>\n<p>在我们11月15日发表的题为《展望2022：夕惕若厉》的展望报告中，我们细致入微地探讨了出口的强劲势头如何转化为中国商业银行不断飙升的外汇存款，以及这种美元流动性的积累如何与中国风险资产价格息息相关。鉴于在今年环球经济重启的大背景下中国出口仍然能够保持惊人的强势，投机资本很有可能乘势流入中国市场，从而推高股价，并让市场对日渐放缓的基本面视而不见。我们认为，这恰恰是中国央行今年两度上调外汇存款准备金率的原因所在。上一次中国央行采取类似举措还要追溯到2007年5月。</p>\n<p>而前度我们目睹市场与不断走弱的基本面走势背道而驰，尚要追溯到2015年的夏季。换言之，目前中国经常账户的强势远不止是中国生产与美国消费间的相对关系的简单映射。外来流动性对中国在岸市场的影响也可从北向净流入资金屡创新高的情况中窥见端倪 (<b>图表2</b>)。</p>\n<p>一众国内新闻“标题党”也对浩浩荡荡大举北上的资金欣喜若狂。这般规模的资金流入固然在顺风顺水时可以助力在岸市场，然而一旦其骤然撤离，尤其是在市场拐点的关键时刻，无疑会给股价造成压力。资本流入是一柄双刃剑——无怪乎在刚刚过去的周末，中国证监会果断出手，重拳打击“假北水”。</p>\n<p><b>图表2：北向净流入资金开始从极端高位回撤。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b9e6665ee26c377c553a86c37e5fe4\" tg-width=\"1223\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>中国在岸和离岸市场之间的相对流动性充裕也可以从港元和人民币之间的交叉汇率中见微知著。今年以来，人民币汇率一路走强，直至最近一个月在央行大幅调贬人民币汇率参考价之后才方有所缓和。与此同时，香港金融管理局一直致力于持续“缩表”，以此回收香港市场的流动性。在美联储结束量化宽松并将于2022年开始加息之前，这着实是一项审慎的举措。恒指在这一过程中不幸沦为了贡品(<b>图表3</b>)。然而，金管局的缩表节奏似乎已经跨越了其峰值，因此恒指的下行压力应该会开始缓解。</p>\n<p><b>图表3：香港金管局持续缩表。但最难熬的时段应已尘埃落定。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d327e338936afa9b688d4359fe6f6275\" tg-width=\"1219\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>\n<p>总而言之，中国央行之所以能够在2021年采取与西方央行截然不同的货币政策，得益于中国市场令人艳羡的充足流动性。国内市场一路下行的利率、激增的外汇存款、势如破竹的跨境资金流以及历史性的北上资金净额，皆是充裕流动性的最佳明证。</p>\n<p>中国出口、人民币汇率以及外汇流入的异常强势表明，必定存在投机资本借出口之便潜入中国国内市场的可能性。这正是中国央行未雨绸缪采取措施提高外汇存款准备金率、引导人民币参考汇率走弱，同时中国证监会严打“假北水”的原因。</p>\n<p>由于中国的资本流动仍未完全开放，这造就了一个免受外国市场风云变幻、国内行业强监管态势影响的避风港。与此同时，中国离岸股票面对国内政策走向和离岸流动性收紧总是首当其冲。这种流动性状况的两极分化态势是2021年中国离岸与在岸市场表现大相径庭的原因所在。但这是可持续的吗?</p>\n<p>迄今，在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港市场已跌入深度价值洼地。我们的资产配置模型显示，香港市场在投资组合配置中具有价值——类似于在亚洲金融风暴和俄罗斯违约、2001年的9-11事件、2008年次贷衰落、2015年6月泡沫破灭以及2020年3月新冠疫情所造成的史诗级别的抛压这些时间节点，香港市场所展现的价值那般(<b>图表4</b>)。诚然，对外关系仍然处于微妙的平衡关口，这种不确定性就算是可以量化也难以精确地估量。但港股在如此委顿低迷的水平上，估值应该至少反映了香港市场面对的部分不确定性。市场见底是一个变化莫测险象环生的过程，但圣诞老人的礼物总是在一个大雪纷飞的夜晚经由一个狭长黢黑的烟囱从天而降的。</p>\n<p>祝您和家人圣诞快乐，新年进步！</p>\n<p><b>图表4：恒指正显示出深度的配置价值。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e606ea2117275a3ec3ce5c14059f5e6\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：彭博，交银国际</p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>洪灝：香港市场开始显示深度配置价值</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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*/\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n洪灝：香港市场开始显示深度配置价值\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-23 11:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/502375><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：洪灝 交银国际董事总经理兼首席策略师\n为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。\n中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/502375\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38508134c6853c521e764dc952e7334a","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/502375","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"1187429259","content_text":"作者：洪灝 交银国际董事总经理兼首席策略师\n为什么，2021年全年香港市场表现欠佳？更重要的是，为什么，尽管香港和上海并称中国举足轻重的两大市场，但是香港的表现今年却远逊于上海?事实上，包括中国的美国存托凭证（ADRs）、中国互联网公司和恒生科技指数在内的中国所有离岸股指的表现都跑输了在岸股指。然而，无论股指在岸还是离岸，都理应无一例外地如实反映中国经济的基本面。\n中国经济增速在2021年有所放缓，但其货币政策的选择与西方央行的政策路径相悖。经济减速的态势从规模以上的工业增加值、采购经理人指数和固定资产投资等多项宏观经济数据中可见一斑。此外，恒生指数在今年2月前后触顶，与宏观经济开始减速慢行的时点吻合。然而，上证综指却仍保持韧性和定力，全年勉强小幅收涨，与恒指2月后下行的走势大相径庭(图表1)。\n有分析将这一切归咎于中国互联网行业所面临的强监管态势。诚然——头部互联网平台公司大都奔赴海外上市，它们的弱势在一定程度上令跌跌不休的恒指雪上加霜。其实，在我们去年11月发布2021年展望报告时，我们曾直言不讳地将当时的中国科技公司的估值称作“泡沫”，并敦促投资者避而远之转而做多大宗商品。但又如何解释那些在香港上市的国内消费和医疗板块龙头企业——它们并未受监管风暴波及却同样表现欠佳。因此，我们认为强监管只道出了部分真相。\n图表1：面对中国经济减速，恒指的反应首当其冲，而上证独善其身。\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n2021年，中国经济最引人注目的特征之一，是其表现强劲、势头不减的出口，以及中国经常账户盈余回升到2007年底以来的历史高位——那时候正值中国“入世”后出口高歌猛进的盛世。在新冠肺炎疫情余孽不减、肆虐环球经济之际，中国出口的强势为中国经济提供了源源不竭的支撑和动力，而其势头之持久足以令我们熟知的每一位经济学家都倍感惊异。\n在我们11月15日发表的题为《展望2022：夕惕若厉》的展望报告中，我们细致入微地探讨了出口的强劲势头如何转化为中国商业银行不断飙升的外汇存款，以及这种美元流动性的积累如何与中国风险资产价格息息相关。鉴于在今年环球经济重启的大背景下中国出口仍然能够保持惊人的强势，投机资本很有可能乘势流入中国市场，从而推高股价，并让市场对日渐放缓的基本面视而不见。我们认为，这恰恰是中国央行今年两度上调外汇存款准备金率的原因所在。上一次中国央行采取类似举措还要追溯到2007年5月。\n而前度我们目睹市场与不断走弱的基本面走势背道而驰，尚要追溯到2015年的夏季。换言之，目前中国经常账户的强势远不止是中国生产与美国消费间的相对关系的简单映射。外来流动性对中国在岸市场的影响也可从北向净流入资金屡创新高的情况中窥见端倪 (图表2)。\n一众国内新闻“标题党”也对浩浩荡荡大举北上的资金欣喜若狂。这般规模的资金流入固然在顺风顺水时可以助力在岸市场，然而一旦其骤然撤离，尤其是在市场拐点的关键时刻，无疑会给股价造成压力。资本流入是一柄双刃剑——无怪乎在刚刚过去的周末，中国证监会果断出手，重拳打击“假北水”。\n图表2：北向净流入资金开始从极端高位回撤。\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n中国在岸和离岸市场之间的相对流动性充裕也可以从港元和人民币之间的交叉汇率中见微知著。今年以来，人民币汇率一路走强，直至最近一个月在央行大幅调贬人民币汇率参考价之后才方有所缓和。与此同时，香港金融管理局一直致力于持续“缩表”，以此回收香港市场的流动性。在美联储结束量化宽松并将于2022年开始加息之前，这着实是一项审慎的举措。恒指在这一过程中不幸沦为了贡品(图表3)。然而，金管局的缩表节奏似乎已经跨越了其峰值，因此恒指的下行压力应该会开始缓解。\n图表3：香港金管局持续缩表。但最难熬的时段应已尘埃落定。\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际\n总而言之，中国央行之所以能够在2021年采取与西方央行截然不同的货币政策，得益于中国市场令人艳羡的充足流动性。国内市场一路下行的利率、激增的外汇存款、势如破竹的跨境资金流以及历史性的北上资金净额，皆是充裕流动性的最佳明证。\n中国出口、人民币汇率以及外汇流入的异常强势表明，必定存在投机资本借出口之便潜入中国国内市场的可能性。这正是中国央行未雨绸缪采取措施提高外汇存款准备金率、引导人民币参考汇率走弱，同时中国证监会严打“假北水”的原因。\n由于中国的资本流动仍未完全开放，这造就了一个免受外国市场风云变幻、国内行业强监管态势影响的避风港。与此同时，中国离岸股票面对国内政策走向和离岸流动性收紧总是首当其冲。这种流动性状况的两极分化态势是2021年中国离岸与在岸市场表现大相径庭的原因所在。但这是可持续的吗?\n迄今，在收紧的香港流动性和国内强监管态势的双重影响下，香港市场已跌入深度价值洼地。我们的资产配置模型显示，香港市场在投资组合配置中具有价值——类似于在亚洲金融风暴和俄罗斯违约、2001年的9-11事件、2008年次贷衰落、2015年6月泡沫破灭以及2020年3月新冠疫情所造成的史诗级别的抛压这些时间节点，香港市场所展现的价值那般(图表4)。诚然，对外关系仍然处于微妙的平衡关口，这种不确定性就算是可以量化也难以精确地估量。但港股在如此委顿低迷的水平上，估值应该至少反映了香港市场面对的部分不确定性。市场见底是一个变化莫测险象环生的过程，但圣诞老人的礼物总是在一个大雪纷飞的夜晚经由一个狭长黢黑的烟囱从天而降的。\n祝您和家人圣诞快乐，新年进步！\n图表4：恒指正显示出深度的配置价值。\n\n资料来源：彭博，交银国际","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1772,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609007694,"gmtCreate":1638204314421,"gmtModify":1638204314421,"author":{"id":"3585952465683287","authorId":"3585952465683287","name":"jazzjerry","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcc578110bbeffa4db52bd61f905a90","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585952465683287","authorIdStr":"3585952465683287"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动：中概股喜迎反弹！财报发威一股涨超24%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174772259","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要: \n阿里巴巴、京东、百度、拼多多等明星中概股集体反弹！2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，Affirm盘前涨超24%；雾芯科技下跌，香港或下月前通过禁电子烟条例。\n\n9月10日，美国三大股指期货上","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>摘要:&nbsp;</b>\n <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等明星中概股集体反弹！2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，Affirm盘前涨超24%；雾芯科技下跌，香港或下月前通过禁电子烟条例。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>9月10日，美国三大股指期货上涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.58%；标普500指数期货涨0.46%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.37%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82141820362a61ed38ceb388f291fd\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">热门中概股盘前普遍反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等“组团”涨超2%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超1%。</p>\n<p>Affirm Holdings盘前涨超24%，2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，月活用户超710万。</p>\n<p>Arburtus Biopharma(ABUS.US)盘前涨超11%，市场预计其赢得与Moderna专利争夺战。</p>\n<p>雾芯科技盘前跌2.7%，香港立法会吸烟修订条例草案委员会今日完成有关修例禁止加热烟及电子烟的审议工作，方案或将10月底前通过。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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17:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n <b>摘要:&nbsp;</b>\n <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等明星中概股集体反弹！2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，Affirm盘前涨超24%；雾芯科技下跌，香港或下月前通过禁电子烟条例。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>9月10日，美国三大股指期货上涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.58%；标普500指数期货涨0.46%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.37%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db82141820362a61ed38ceb388f291fd\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"236\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">热门中概股盘前普遍反弹，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>等“组团”涨超2%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZH\">知乎</a>涨超3%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨超1%。</p>\n<p>Affirm Holdings盘前涨超24%，2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，月活用户超710万。</p>\n<p>Arburtus Biopharma(ABUS.US)盘前涨超11%，市场预计其赢得与Moderna专利争夺战。</p>\n<p>雾芯科技盘前跌2.7%，香港立法会吸烟修订条例草案委员会今日完成有关修例禁止加热烟及电子烟的审议工作，方案或将10月底前通过。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"ZH":"知乎","IQ":"爱奇艺","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)","RLX":"雾芯科技","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","WDH":"水滴","BABA":"阿里巴巴","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","VIPS":"唯品会","JD":"京东"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174772259","content_text":"摘要: \n阿里巴巴、京东、百度、拼多多等明星中概股集体反弹！2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，Affirm盘前涨超24%；雾芯科技下跌，香港或下月前通过禁电子烟条例。\n\n9月10日，美国三大股指期货上涨，截至发稿，道指期货涨0.58%；标普500指数期货涨0.46%；纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.37%。热门中概股盘前普遍反弹，阿里巴巴、水滴、滴滴、京东、百度、爱奇艺、唯品会、好未来、贝壳、新东方、拼多多等“组团”涨超2%；高途、知乎涨超3%，腾讯音乐、哔哩哔哩涨超1%。\nAffirm Holdings盘前涨超24%，2021财年Q4营收同比增71%，月活用户超710万。\nArburtus 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